Tải bản đầy đủ (.pdf) (15 trang)

estimating beta of vietnam listed construction company groups during the financial crisis

Bạn đang xem bản rút gọn của tài liệu. Xem và tải ngay bản đầy đủ của tài liệu tại đây (353.83 KB, 15 trang )

ASIANJOURNALOFMANAGEM ENTRESEARCH
OnlineOpenAccesspublishingplatformforManagementResearch
©Copyright2010AllrightsreservedIntegratedPublishingassociation
ResearchArticle ISSN2229 – 3795
ASIAN JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT RESEARCH 495
EstimatingBetaofVietnamListedConstructionCompanyGroupsduringthe
FinancialCrisis
DinhTranNgocHuy
CollegeofBusiness,ChungYuanChristianUniversity
GSIM,InternationalUniversity ofJapan

ABSTRACT
After the financial crisis 20072009, the Viet Nam stock market, in general, has certain
unexpectedmovementsandtheVietNamconstructionindustry,indetail,hastoreevaluatethe
risklevel. First,weusepropertraditionalmodeltoestimateequitybetaandassetbetaofthree
(3)groupsoflistedcompaniesinVietNamconstructionindustryandfoundoutthatthevaluesof
beta during 20072009 acceptable, excludinga few cases. Second,throughcomparisonamong
three (3) different groups, we find out that there is not large disperse in beta values in these
construction firms. Besides, beta values of firms in real estate industry tend to behigher than
thoseinbuildingmaterialandconstruction industries.Finally,thispaperprovidesbothinternal
and external investors with two risk parameters, equity and asset beta, indicating investment
parameters,as reference intheir investment activities, becauseofanormalconceptthatriskier
investmentrequiringbetterROI.Italsogives financialinstitutions,companiesandgovernment
moreevidenceinmanagingtheirpolicies.
Keywords:Equitybeta,financialstructure,financialcrisis,risk,assetbeta,constructionindustry
1.Introduction
AlthoughtheissueofmeasuringbetaasonemainfactorintheCAPMmodelhasbeendoneby
lots of researchers, this paper emphasizes on analyzing a very short period in construction
industryinoneofemergingmarkets:Vietnamstockmarketduringthefinancialcrisis20072009.
Then,wecomparetheestimatedresultsoflistedVietNambuildingmaterialcompaniestothose
in its supply chain activities such as construction and real estate companies to make a


comparative analysis and suggestion for using external financingafterfinancial crisis impacts.
Noresearch,sofar,hasbeendoneonthesametopic.
Thispaperisorganizedasfollow.Theresearchissues,hypothesesandgoalswillbecoveredin
next sessions 2 and 3, for a short summary. Then, methodology and conceptual theories are
introducedinsession4and5and6.Session7describesthedatainempiricalanalysis.Session8
presentsempiricalresultsandfindings.Next,session9givesanalysisofrisk.Lastly,session10
will conclude with some policy suggestions. This paper also provides readers withreferences,
exhibitsandrelevantwebsources.
ASIANJOURNALOFMANAGEMENTRESEARCH 496
2.ProblemDefinition
Duringthefinancial crisis,wepayattentiontoafewissuesontheestimatingof betaforlisted
construction companies in Viet Nam stock exchange as following: the values of beta during
20072009acceptableornot,ingeneralandin specificcases.Also,wewould liketopointout
that whether there is not large disperse in beta values in these construction firms, and the
differencebetweenbetavaluesoffirms inrealestateindustrytendstobehigherorlowerthan
thoseinbuildingmaterialandconstructionindustries.
2.1ResearchGoals
Generalspeaking, under thecrisis the market has certain unexpected movements and the Viet
Namconstructionindustry,indetail,hastoreevaluatetherisklevel.Thisisoneofthispaper’s
goals.
2.1.1GeneralGoal
Besides,thispaperprovidesbothinternalandexternalinvestorswithtworiskparameters,equity
and asset beta, indicating investment parameters, as reference in their investment activities,
becauseofanormal conceptthatriskierinvestmentrequiringbetterROI.
2.1.2SpecificGoals
Bythisresearch,wewouldliketodrawapictureofrisklevels,withbetavalues,inthesethree
(3) industries, the real estate market, construction and building material including cement
industries.
Additionally, this paper aims to compare equity and asset beta mean in real estate and
constructionfirmsthen,givingsomepolicysuggestion.

3.ResearchHypotheses
Hypothesis/Issue 1: Among the construction group including cement companies, construction
companies and real estate companies, under thefinancial crisis impact and high inflation, the
betaor risk level of listedcompanies incement andbuilding materialindustrieswillrelatively
higher than those in the rest two industries. Hypothesis/Issue 2: Because Viet Nam is an
emergingandimmaturefinancialmarketandthestockmarketstillinthestartingstage,therewill
be a large disperse distribution in beta values estimated in the construction industries.
Hypothesis/Issue3:Withtheabovereasons,themeanofequityandassetbeta valuesofthese
listedconstructioncompaniestendtoimposeahighrisklevelorbetashouldhigherthan(>)1.
4.ResearchMethodology
WeusetheinputdatafromthelivestockexchangemarketinVietNamduringthetwoyearsof
financialcrisis20072009toestimateresults.Wedoresearchinthisperiodbecauseofasshown
inExhibit5,moststockmarketsincludingVietNamstockmarkethasthesamedecliningtrend
andthisisthetimehighlightingfinancialcrisisimpacts.
ASIANJOURNALOFMANAGEMENTRESEARCH 497
Firstly,theVietNam StockIndex, VNIIndexare usedtomeasurethe marketreturnchanging
during this period. Secondly, we use the market stock price of 103 listed companies in the
cement and building materials, construction and real estate industries in Viet Nam stock
exchange marketto calculatethevariability in monthlystock price inthesameperiod;thirdly,
we estimate the equity beta for these listed groups of companies and make a crossgroup
comparisonaswell.Fourth,from theequitybeta dataofthese listed companies, weperforma
comparativeanalysisbetweenequityandassetbetavaluesofgroupsofconstructioncompanies
in Viet Nam. Finally, we use the results to suggest policy for boththeseenterprises, financial
institutions and relevant organizations.The below table gives us the number of construction
companiesusedintheresearchofestimatingbeta:
Table1:Numberofconstructioncompaniesusedinresearch
Market ListedCement
andconstruction
material
companies(1)

Listed
Construction
companies(2)
ListedReal
estate
companies(3)
Note(4)
9 40 10 Estimatingby
traditional
method
VietNam
5 6 33 Estimatingby
comparative
method
Total 14 46 43 Totalfirmsin
group: 103
(Note:TheabovedataisattheDecember12
th
,2010,excludingsteelindustrydataincolumn1)
5.Literaturereview
Aswath, Damoradan., (2008) pointed several factors which affect beta estimation. They are:
firstly, different time periods generating different beta values, and therefore, different returns.
Secondly,differentreturnintervalsuchasdaily,weekly,monthlycanalsoaffectbetaestimation.
Regardingtoresearchesonfinancialcrisis,riskandcostofcapital,HerringandWatchter(2003)
found that many financial crises are results from bubbles in real estate industry. And Allen,
Franklin.,Babus,Ana.,andCarletti,Elena.,(2009)pointedduringcrisistheborrowingamount
againstvariouscollateraltypescanvarysignificantly.Bebczuk,Ricardo.,andGalindo,ArturoJ.
(2010) found that the financial crisis doest not have a large impact on listed firms in Latin
America.Fama,EugeneF.,andFrench,KennethR.,(2004)saidinCAPM,weshouldmeasure
theriskofastockrelativetothemarketportfolioincludingnotonlyfinancialassetsbutalsoreal

estate and human capital. But not many researches so far have been done for groups of
constructioncompaniesduringcrisisperiod20072009.
6.Conceptualtheories
6.1DeterminantsofEquityandAssetBeta
ASIANJOURNALOFMANAGEMENTRESEARCH 498
Though not much researches or theories mention it, Beta’s determinants include some
parameterssuchasfinancialleveragebywhichthecompany’stotalassetisfinanced,movements
(up anddown)ofthecompany’sstockand market index,theexpected return fromthemarket
andothermacroeconomicsfactorssuchasinflationandinterestrates.
Besides,betacanbeusedasa variabletoestimateWACCandusedinCAPMmodeltoeither
selectbetweentwoprojectsordetermineNetPresentValueorIRRasmeasurementsoffinancial
effectiveness.
Beta,inCAPMmodel,measuresmarketrisk.Aswath,Damoradan.,(2008)stateddifferentbeta
estimatingmethodsusedindifferentmodelssuchasAPM,CAPM,andmultifactormodels.And
beta has two (2) features: a) measuring the risk added on to a diversified portfolio; and b)
measuringrelativeriskofanassetwithvaluearoundone(1).Besides,betacanindicatedifferent
risk levels in different market stages, according to different economic conditions. And it is a
determinantofequityriskpremiumaswell.
The Security Market Line(SML) is constructedby beta variables and required returns. In the
belowchart,itshowsdifferentrisklevelswillbetakenintoaccountofdifferentROI.
Figure1:SecurityMarketline
6.2General DataAnalysis
Equity beta max value in 103 listed construction firms is 1,543 and min value is 0,149 which
indicatethattherangesofbetavaluesareacceptable,intermofmarketriskduringthecrisis.The
mean value estimated at 0,848 lower than (<) 1 is a good number, combined with sample
varianceat0,1089,whichtogethersupportingthat.
Next,Assetbetamaxvalue is1,239andminvalueis0,041whichshowusthatthoughbetaof
debtisassumedtobezero(0),thecompany’sfinancialleveragecontributestoadecreaseinthe
marketrisklevel.Assetbeta’smeanvalueat0,537andsamplevarianceat0,0964,togetherare
goodrisknumbersforcompaniesintheindustry.Wecanseethesmalldifferencebetweenequity

and asset beta variance values is just 0,01 or 1%, so, there is not big effect from financial
leverageonthegapbetweencompany’sbetavaluesandindustrymeanvalue.
ASIANJOURNALOFMANAGEMENTRESEARCH 499
Besides,itisnotedthatthereislargegapinassetbetavaluesfrom0,041to1,239andinequity
betavaluesfrom0,149to1,543.
Table2:EstimatingbetaresultsforThree(3)VietNamListedConstructionCompanies
Groups(asofDec2010)(source:VietNamstockexchangedata)
Statisticresults
Equity
beta
Assetbeta(assumedebtbeta
=0)
MAX 1,543 1,239
MIN 0,149 0,041
MEAN 0,848 0,537
VAR 0,1089 0,0964
Note:Samplesize:103firms
6.3 EmpiricalResearchFindings
A)RealEstatelistedcompaniesgroup
AswecanseefromtheTableA.2below,fromdataof43realestateindustrycompaniesduring
20072009 crisis periods,thevarianceofequity betaof samplegroupof realestate companies
equals to 0,0936 which determines small difference from the sample equity beta mean 0,891.
Thebetameanislowerthan(<)1,whichindicatesthelowrisklevelforrealestatecompanies.
Among reasons are the high demand of accommodation, housing and leasing in a developing
country,Viet Nam,withtotalpopulationof87,71 millionandpopulationgrowthrateof1,5%
during20072009,andadvantagesinrealestatepolicyrecentlywhichsatisfieshousingbuying
andleasingdemandofVietnameseforeignersorVietnamesewhoislivingoverseasorleftViet
Nam before 1975.It is also necessary to keep updated information on impacts from thecrisis
becausethedurationofimpactsfromcrisisprobablycomesinlongeryears,especiallywhenwe
take into account of the high continuous inflation of the year 2010 as 11,75% and other

unfavorable marketconditions includinghigher interestrate.Thisthreatsthecostofcapital of
real estate companies as well. Besides, the estimated asset beta mean is 0,663 and sample
varianceis0,1163,whichisnotsupportingour2
nd
researchhypothesisorissuethattherewould
bealargedispersedistributioninbetavaluesestimatedintheconstructionindustriesaswellas
our3
rd
researchhypothesisorissuethatthemeanofequityandassetbetavaluesoftheselisted
constructioncompaniestendtoimposeahighrisklevelorbetashouldhigherthan(>)1.
Table3:EstimatingbetaresultsforVietNamListedRealEstateCompanies(asofDec
2010)(source:VietNamstockexchangedata)
Order
No.
Company
stock
code
Equity
beta
Assetbeta
(assume
debtbeta
=0) Note
1 API 1,196 1,196 PVLascomparable(line63)
2 ASM 0,661 0,322 SC5ascomparable(line63)
3 BCI 0,771 0,594 IJCascomparable(line63)
ASIANJOURNALOFMANAGEMENTRESEARCH 500
4 CCI 1,163 1,072 HDCascomparable(line63)
5 CLG 0,279 0,052 SC5ascomparable(line63)
6 D2D 1,092 1,002 SC5ascomparable(line63)

7 DIG 0,906 0,713 PDRascomparable(line63)
8 DLG 0,149 0,081 VCRascomparable(line63)
9 DXG 0,912 0,546 NTLascomparable(line63)
10 HAG 0,601 0,303 ITAascomparable(line63)
11 HDC 1,234 0,517
12 HDG 0,728 0,658 IDJascomparable(line63)
13 IDJ 0,783 0,783 NBBascomparable(line63)
14 IDV 1,019 1,019 NHAascomparable(line63)
15 IJC 0,936 0,676 PVLascomparable(line63)
16 ITA 1,028 0,853
17 KBC 0,888 0,548
18 KDH 1,151 1,082 TDHascomparable(line63)
19 LCG 0,659 0,445 KBCascomparable(line63)
20 LGL 0,819 0,510 UICascomparable(line63)
21 LHG 0,804 0,703 KBCascomparable(line63)
22 NBB 0,783 0,390 NTLascomparable(line63)
23 NHA 1,019 0,901 RCLascomparable(line63)
24 NTL 1,352 1,144
25 NVN 0,616 0,276 SC5ascomparable(line63)
26 OGC 0,698 0,584 VICascomparable(line63)
27 PDR 1,082 0,680 SJSascomparable(line63)
28 PPI 0,871 0,596 SC5ascomparable(line63)
29 PVL 1,196 1,185 TDHascomparable(line63)
30 QCG 0,824 0,532 KDHascomparable(line63)
31 RCL 1,115 0,944
32 SC5 1,162 0,442
33 SDU 1,139 1,109 SC5ascomparable(line63)
34 SJS 1,543 1,239
35 SZL 1,162 1,162 SC5ascomparable(line63)
36 TDH 1,203 1,089

37 TIX 0,918 0,671 SC5ascomparable(line63)
38 UDC 0,850 0,570 KDHascomparable(line63)
39 UIC 1,175 0,599
40 VCR 0,238 0,238 VPHascomparable(line63)
41 VIC 0,796 0,171
42 VPH 0,238 0,069 LCGascomparable(line63)
43 VRC 0,564 0,225 UICascomparable(line63)
Note:Rawdata,notadjusted
ASIANJOURNALOFMANAGEMENTRESEARCH 501
Table4:StatisticalresultsforVietnamlistedRealestatecompanies
Statistic
results Equitybeta
Assetbeta(assumedebt
beta=0)
MAX 1,543 1,239
MIN 0,149 0,052
MEAN 0,891 0,663
VAR 0,0936 0,1163
Note:Samplesize:43companies
B)Constructionlistedcompaniesgroup
In the Table B below, we can see the equity and asset beta mean of 46 listed construction
companies equals to 0,864 and 0,450, accordingly. This result, which means the risk is
controllableandacceptable,enhancestheconfidenceofbusinessoperationofthewholeindustry
whenthelevelofmarketriskislowerthanthoseinrealestategroup.Besides,therestillhasa
largedistributionofbetavalueamongthesefirms,from0,175to1,537andfrom0,041to1,027,
forequityandassetbeta,accordingly.
PleaserefertoExhibit6formoreinformation.
Table5:StatisticalresultsforVietnamlistedConstructioncompanies
Statisticresults Equitybeta
Assetbeta(assumedebt

beta=0)
MAX 1,537 1,027
MIN 0,175 0,041
MEAN 0,864 0,450
VAR 0,1317 0,0697
Note:Samplesize:46firms
PleaserefertoExhibit7formoreinformation.
Table6:StatisticalresultsforVietnamlistedConstructionmaterialcompanies
Statisticresults
Equity
beta
Assetbeta(assumedebtbeta
=0)
MAX 1,111 0,745
MIN 0,300 0,075
MEAN 0,660 0,439
VAR 0,0511 0,0506
Note:Samplesize:14firms
C)Constructionmateriallistedcompaniesgroup
Different from firms in the construction and real estate industries, 14 listed building material
firms has higher minequityandassetbeta values,estimated at 0,3and0,075, but lower max
ASIANJOURNALOFMANAGEMENTRESEARCH 502
betavalues,estimatedat1,111and0,745.Thisindicatesamoreconcentratedinlevelofmarket
risks among firms inthisindustry.Theequity and assetbetameanvaluesare0,660and0,439
andmaxvaluesare1,111and0,745showsasaferbusinessenvironmentthantherealestateand
constructionindustries.
6.4Comparisonamong3groupsofconstructioncompanies
Hereinthebelowchart,wecanseethebetavaluemeanoflistedfirmsintherealestateindustry
isrelativelyhigherthanthoseoflistedconstructionandbuildingmaterialsfirms.Itrejectsour1
st

hypothesis or research issue that the beta values in the cement and building material industry
wouldbehigherthenthoseintheresttwo.Thedifficultmarketconditionsandhighratesinthe
economyisnotfavorofrealestatebusiness.Intermofvariancedifference,thechartalsoshow
thattheequitybetavarianceinconstructionindustryishigherthanthoseintheresttwo,which
meansthebiggergapbetweenmeanandcompanies’equitybetaintheconstructionindustrythan
others.
0,66
0,439
0,0511
0,1317
0,0697
0,891
0,663
0,0936
0,0506
0,864
0,45
0,1163
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
Equity

BetaMean
AssetBeta
Mean
Equity
BetaVAR
AssetBeta
VAR
Material
Construction
RealEstate
Figure2:Statisticalresultsofthree(3)groupsof103listedconstructionfirmsduringcrisis
period20072009
9.Riskanalysis
Generally, during the financial crisis 20072009, the construction material has burdened by
unexpectedincreasingpriceinthematerials(suchas:cement).Itisinflatedbythehighinflation
(see Exhibit 3). In the year 2008, high inflation more than 23% put a pressure on input and
materialpriceinthisindustry.
Besides,underahighinflationrateintheVietNameconomy,itisfollowedbyahighborrowing
rateinthelendingandbankingmarket.Alltheconstructionmaterial,constructionandrealestate
seethattheir loancontractswithcommercialbankstendtoberenegotiatedwithanincreasing
rateabout45%higherthanthepreviousborrowingrates.Therefore,allthesecompanieshaveto
thinkofdifferentwaystolowertheinterestrates.Thesecanbeshortlistedasmarketriskswhich
thesecorporationsface.
ASIANJOURNALOFMANAGEMENTRESEARCH 503
Inthemeantime,theselistedcompanieshavetoencounteranotherusualrisk:operationalrisk,
including changes in their internal structure, system and corporate governance. The financial
crisishasnegativeimpactontheirbusinessoperationontheaspectthatitthreatstheirbusiness
operating cash flow in near future. So, the Board of Directors of those corporations has to
flexiblyrestructuretheirbusinessoperationandhumanresources.
On the other side, we have evidence on the stock market showing that the VNIIndex (see

Exhibit 5 and 8) and most of listed construction companies’ stock price in Viet Nam during
20072009 spend a long waiting time that it decreases significantly and slightly move up and
down.ItshowsanunattractiveorslowIPOpriceforthesenewconstructioncompaniesneeding
to enter the stock market for new equity capital source as well as current listed companies
needingtoissuemoresharesthroughstockmarketchannel.Itputsanewtypeofrisk,capitalrisk,
ontheshoulderoftheboardoftheseconstructioncompanies.
Last but not least, corporate governance structure and mechanisms are still on the path to
enhanceandneedalotofimprovementswhichbecomesanotherriskissue.Becauseanimperfect
corporate governance structure tends to negatively affect the company’s cost of capital. This
taking place during the financial crisis will give new challenges to the corporation’s top
management team such as how to operate and organize business activities better and more
effective.
10.ConclusionandSuggestions
10.1Realestateindustry
As we see from Exhibit 5, the VNIIndex during the crisis has the same decreasing trend as
mostlyotherindexessuchasS&P500,TaiwanStockIndex,Kospi,etc.,whichreflect impacts
fromthecrisisoriginating fromUS and Europeand not muchprofits for shortterm investors’
expectation.However,asourresearchstatesthatthebetavalueorlevelofriskinthelistedreal
estate companies are at acceptable level, we can expect good signals from this industry for
investorswhenthecrisisstormpassed.Regardingtopolicysuggestion,thoughitstilldependson
current market conditions, we highly value the role of government and central bank and other
relevantfiscalorganizationsincontinuousprovidingproperactionstocontrolthehighinflation
andunexpectedpricefluctuations intheforeignexchange,bywhichitcancontrolthevalueof
VNDatacceptablelevelandmotivateinternalinvestors.
Exhibit1:Interestratesinbankingindustryduringcrisis
(Source:VietNamcommercialbanks)
Year Borrowing
Interestrates
Deposit
Rates

Note
2010 19%20% 13%14%
2009 9%12% 9%10%
2008 19%21% 15%16,5%
2007 12%15% 9%11%
Approximately
(2007:requiredreservesratioat
SBV ischanged from5%to
10%)
(2009:specialsupporting
interestrateis 4%)
ASIANJOURNALOFMANAGEMENTRESEARCH 504
Exhibit2:BasicinterestratechangesinVietNam
(Source:StateBankof VietNamandVietNameconomy)
Year Basicrate Note
2010 8%
2009 7%
2008 8,75%14% Approximately,
fluctuated
2007 8,25%
2006 8,25%
2005 7,8%
2004 7,5%
2003 7,5%
2002 7,44%
2001 7,2%8,7% Approximately,
fluctuated
2000 9%
Exhibit3:Inflation,GDPgrowthandmacroeconomicsfactors
(Source:VietNamcommercialbanksandeconomicstatisticalbureau)

Year Inflation GDP USD/VNDrate
2010 11,75%
(Estimatedat
Dec2010)
6,5%
(expected)
19.495
2009 6,88% 5,2% 17.000
2008 22% 6,23% 17.700
2007 12,63% 8,44% 16.132
2006 6,6% 8,17%
2005 8,4%
Note approximately
Exhibit4:GDPgrowthrateduringtheperiod20002005
(Source: />ASIANJOURNALOFMANAGEMENTRESEARCH 505
Exhibit5:VNIIndexandotherstockmarketindexduringcrisis20062010
Exhibit6:EstimatingbetaresultsforVietNamListedConstructionCompanies(asofDec
2010)(source:VietNamstockexchangedata)
Order
No.
Company
stockcode
Equity
beta
Assetbeta(assume
debtbeta=0) Note
1
CNT
1,005 0,190
2

DCC
1,073 1,027
3
DCT
0,794 0,510
4
FPC
0,184 0,158
5
HBC
1,060 0,703
6
L10
0,184 0,087
7
MCG
0,578 0,578
8
VNE
0,175 0,041 SDHascomparable(line85)
9
L62
0,653 0,316
10
L43
0,535 0,400
11
B82
0,765 0,438
12

C92
0,956 0,331
13
CID
0,993 0,991
14
HUT
0,821 0,197
15
L18
0,875 0,209
16
LUT
0,506 0,357
17
MCO
0,604 0,232
18
PHC
0,246 0,074 L62ascomparable
19
QTC
0,537 0,537 SJMascomparable
20
TV2
0,577 0,542 MCOascomparable
0
1000
2000
3000

4000
5000
6000
7000
Thg106
Thg406
Thg706
Thg1006
Thg107
Thg407
Thg707
Thg1007
Thg108
Thg408
Thg708
Thg1008
Thg109
Thg409
Thg709
Thg1009
Thg110
Thg410
Thg710
VNIndex
S&P500
SSEindex
NIKKEI225(/0')
TSEC(/0')
KOSPI
CNT(/00')

ASIANJOURNALOFMANAGEMENTRESEARCH 506
21
TV4
0,521 0,438
22
VE1
1,423 0,985
23
VE9
0,460 0,228
24
SNG
0,921 0,394
25
SSS
0,879 0,495
26
STL
1,413 0,160
27
SJM
0,537 0,320
28
SJE
1,128 0,541
29
SJC
1,006 0,401
30
SIC

1,394 0,412
31
SDT
1,259 0,865
32
SDS
0,554 0,057
33
SDJ
1,225 0,474
34
SDH
0,592 0,402 DCTascomparable
35
SD9
1,233 0,417
36
SD8
0,470 0,123 VE1ascomparable
37
SD7
1,275 0,927
38
SD6
1,537 0,804
39
SD5
1,214 0,368
40
SD4

0,966 0,234
41
SD3
1,073 0,732
42
SD2
1,195 0,535
43
S99
1,038 0,675
44
S96
1,415 0,810
45
S91
0,990 0,373
46
S64
0,899 0,630
Exhibit7:EstimatingbetaresultsforVietNamListedConstructionMaterialCompanies(as
ofDec2010)(Source:Vietnamstockexchangedata)
Order
No.
Company
stockcode
Equity
beta
Assetbeta(assume
debtbeta=0) Note
1

DIC
0,721 0,267
2
LBM
1,111 0,745
3
NAV
0,786 0,554
4
DXV
0,867 0,254
5
HT1
0,391 0,075
6
CVT
0,300 0,124 MCOascomparable(li ne63)
7
DC4
0,655 0,432 S64ascomparable
8
HPS
0,847 0,677
ASIANJOURNALOFMANAGEMENTRESEARCH 507
9
KBT
0,818 0,742 SSSascomparable
10
PPG
0,461 0,280

11
SDN
0,471 0,315
12
SKS
0,778 0,660 SSSiscomparable
13
VXB
0,458 0,454 PPGascomparable
14
DHA
0,578 0,568
Exhibit8:VNIndex(‘000),Inflation,BaseInterestandGDPgrowth20062010
0,7518
0,927
0,3156
0,4926
0,47305
8,17%
8,44%
6,23%
5,20%
6,50%
12,63%
22%
11,38%
11,75%6,60% 6,88%
8,00%8%
8%
7,00%

0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
VNIIndex
GDP
Inflation
BaseInterest
10.2Constructionindustry
Duringthefinancialcrisis impact, becauseof highinflationandborrowing interestrates,these
firms tend to decrease their loans and lending contracts, by that decreasing their financial
leverage even though our results show that their market risk levels are at acceptable levels,
exceptforafewcompanies.Reasonsmightbeincludinginternaleffectivemanagementandloan
contract renegotiation of the Board of Directors and external effective supportive financial
policy in the recognized efforts of the government. However, because risks still exist in the
currentmarketconditionsandthecrisismighthavelongerimpacts,theyarenewchallengesfor
construction companies, financial institutions and government in planning and using effective
resources.
10.3Constructionmaterialsindustry
Eventhoughthebetaresultsinbuildingmaterialindustryaresomewhatlowerthanthoseinthe
twoothers,itis notedthatthethesethree(3)industriesarerelatedtoeachother,andhighrisk
ASIANJOURNALOFMANAGEMENTRESEARCH 508

takingplaceintherealestatemarketcanaffectthehighexpectedreturninthatmarketandinthe
materialindustry.
Generally, our empirical findings state that they are not in favor of our 1
st
and 2
nd
and 3
rd
hypotheses or research issues. In summary, though Viet Nam is an emerging market with
imperfect financial system, the beta values estimated are at acceptable level with just a few
companies’betavaluesarerisky(seerelevantresulttables).Additionally,itindicatesthehigher
equityandassetbetameaninrealestateandconstructionfirmsthanthat inthematerialfirms,
which tends to note the crisis has a rotation effect. It originated from US real estate industry
within financial institutions’ policies and now has a impact on relatively higher beta value of
VietNamrealestatefirms.
Finally,thispapersuggests implicationsfor furtherresearchandpolicysuggestionfortheViet
Nam government and relevant organizations, economists and investors from current market
conditions.
Acknowledgements
IwouldliketotakethisopportunitytoexpressmywarmthankstoDr.YeaMowChenandDr.
Yu HaiChin at Chung Yuan Christian University for class lectures, Dr.Borucki at Temple
University, Dr.Wakayama at IUJ, also my exCorporate Governance sensei, Dr. Shingo
Takahashi,senseiJayandsenseiXingatInternationalUniversityofJapan.Mysincerethanksare
for Volker, Darcey and theIntegrated Publishing Associationeditorial office, for their helpful
workduringmyresearch.AndthisisalsomychancetosendspecialthankstomyexExecutives,
Mr. Tran Van Vinh at BIDVHCM City, Mr. Le Dang Xu at COFICO – HCM city, ExGD.
PhamAnhDung,NguyenTheLinhandhiscolleaguesatSCBHCMcity,aswellasMr.Nguyen
BaVuong,DinhNgocSon,NguyenQuocSyandcolleaguesatWTBHCMcity,VietNam.I
alsowouldliketoexpresswarmthankstothehelpofDr.NgoHuong,Dr.HoDieu,Dr.Nguyen
ThiNhungandmyLecturersatBankingUniversities–HCMcity,aswellasSKTTelecomViet

NamBoard.
Lastly,thankyouverymuchformyfamily,uncles,auntsandrelatives,mycolleagues,officers,
andbrotherinassistingconvenientconditionsformyresearchpaper.
7.References
1. Fernandez,Pablo.,(2008),LeveredandUnleveredBeta, SSRNWorkingpaperseries
2. Camara,Antonio.,Nejadmadlayeri,Ali.,(2009),AssetLiquidity,BusinessRiskandBeta,
SSRNWorkingpaperseries
3. Basu,Devraj.,Streme, Alexander., (2007), CAPM andTimeVaryingBeta:The Cross
SectionofExpectedReturns,SSRNWorkingpaperseries
4. DeGennaro, Ramon P., Kim, Sangphill., (2003), The CAPM and Beta in an Imperfect
Market, SSRNWorkingpaperseries
ASIANJOURNALOFMANAGEMENTRESEARCH 509
5. Rogers, Pablo., Securato, Jose Roberto., (2007) , Comparative Study of CAPM, Fama
and FrenchModel andReward BetaApproach in the Brazilian Market, SSRN Working
paperseries
6. Galagedera,Don(Tissa)U.A.,(2005),RelationshipbetweenDownsideBetaandCAPM
Beta,SSRNWorkingpaperseries
7. Benninga,Simon.,(2008), Financialmodeling,TheMITPress
8. Galagedera, D.U.A., (2007),An alternative perspective on the relationship between
downsidebetaandCAPMbeta,EmergingMarketsReview
9. Hai, Bui Xuan., (2006), Vietnamese Company Law: The Development and Corporate
Governanceissues,BondLawReview
10. Ang,A.,Chen,J.,(2007),CAPMOvertheLongRun:19262001,JournalofEmpirical
Finance
11. ADBandVietNamFactSheet,2010
12. />13. structionint.com/article/vietnamconstructionmarket.html, accessed on
January,2011.
14. />Page=0,accessedonJanuary,2011.
15. />accessedonJanuary,2011.
16. />ml,accessedonJanuary,2011.

17. />18. />

×