KINH TẾ VĨ MÔ_CHƯƠNG 2: SỐ LIỆU KINH TẾ VĨ MÔ docx

1
kinh t v mô
bn th nm
N. Gregory Mankiw
Bài ging ca Phm Th Anh

(dch và sa theo bài ging ca Ron Cronovich)
CHNG 2
S liu
Kinh t V mô
macro
© 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 1
Mc tiêu ca chng
Mc tiêu ca chng


 !"#

$%&' (")#

*+,-,
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 2

Tng Sn phm Quc ni
Tng Sn phm Quc ni
./01
23
45%4&0
46'7-8
93
:;</=>%
?7-8
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 3
Ti sao chi tiêu = thu nhp
Ti sao chi tiêu = thu nhp
@&0A
BCD
:BCE%3
!4:AEF48
:3
@&0A
@&0A
BCD
BCD
:BCE%3
:BCE%3
!4:AEF48
!4:AEF48
:3

:3
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 4
Dòng Chu chuyn
Dòng Chu chuyn
Thu nhp
Lao ng
Hàng hoá
Chi tiêu
H gia ình Doanh nghip
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 5
Giá tr gia tng
Giá tr gia tng
/01
B&,+
%0B
>/
%0B%%
&,G&6/H7-
/I3
2
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2

The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 6
Bài tp:
Bài tp:
(
(
Câu
Câu
2
2
,
,
trang 38
trang 38
)
)

JK&?LEM4E%
%748%2ANNO3

P%7H+MEM4E%
C+E%48%QANNO3

PC+E%G&6EM/H+
E%4E%;R48%SANNO3

PC;RTE%3
.UV
W

%0TXYK/X7-
W
!"
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 7
Hàng hoá cui cùng, giá tr gia tng, và
Hàng hoá cui cùng, giá tr gia tng, và
GDP
GDP

!"Z%0B@%'/=
7-
Z%0TB-%K
/X7-

%0B%'/UEL%0
B%A
&4:4,V%4 !"
&[/<\V'V9+]#3
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 8
Các thành phn chi tiêu ca GDP
Các thành phn chi tiêu ca GDP
^ &'

^ /]
^ VB
^ 7-;_
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 9
Tiêu dùng (
Tiêu dùng (


)
)
^

G&6C;`
&7aA/L
&'/M
^


G&6C
b+
\A]%
^

c4,646
C&'
d+A;K3

/01 %0B@
e &4/=ED%
/M3 fL
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 10
Tiêu dùng ca M,
Tiêu dùng ca M,
2001
2001
$
O g !"
&' h3NSiAj SkA9
l?E5
mjmAQ mAi
nK+?E5
93NjjA2 9NA2
!046
i32j2A2 iNAh
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 11
u t
u t
(
(



)
)
o01245E p?7-q3
o019%646
6/VG&6+3
fL

 !"
7D4%I&
,G&6/H7-e&4;%

 #
45DEDC&'4B/-

$
\/%0L;B&,
3
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 12
u t ca M,
u t ca M,
2001
2001
$ O
g !"

o
]
 O23SQQAk 2SAN
( /0 B !P
239iSAN 29A9
( /0 B &?
iiSAQ iAi
.L ;
rjmAi rNAS
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 13
u t và T bn
u t và T bn

E+c?
-3
X@C/HA5;<I+=
E-/03

o]+45E83
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 14
u t và T bn
u t và T bn

sV&6
G;KI_#

 2t2t9NN9
5;<I+=E0%jNN$O
 T 9NN9
/] ZQh$O
 2t2t9NNQ
5;<I+=E0%jQh$O
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 15
Lng và Dòng
Lng và Dòng
% &
BC <;,BC
CI C8
EF/X@ ,/X@
=VB ?6?%
Dòng Lng
sV&6;%
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 16
Chi tiêu chính ph
Chi tiêu chính ph

(
(


)
)

EL-%;45
%4&046BVB3

 ;KEL%;%
H
4V&6 EH-,#A ED4M
;K/X&,45%4
&0463
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 17
Chi tiêu chính ph,
Chi tiêu chính ph,
2001
2001
$ O
g !"
(V B
23mQkAj 2mAN

S2jAh SAN

"?\
r 92SAS 9A2
u?\
QkkAN QAk
o0 
2399QAm 29AN
4
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 18
Xut khu ròng
Xut khu ròng
(
(
'()*(
'()*(
+
+
,
,
)
)
/01 %0B7-;*(#
>/%0B:;,#
Xut khu ròng ca M, 1960-2000
-400
-350
-300

-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
t $
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 19
Mt ng nht thc quan trng
Mt ng nht thc quan trng
- Z v v v'(
/I
- Z !"Z%0B
 v v v'( Z
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 20
Câu hi:
Câu hi:
G&,

7-%'0%2N

,O

$E%48%k,O3
l,/5I4X
/L-Z:w
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 21
Ti sao sn lng = chi tiêu
Ti sao sn lng = chi tiêu

xE%/=V4L
;A4/=V+y/]L;z
{E-;H\TL;+IB
/V;K3

\-//0&
,E%/=B
V@3
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 22
GDP:
GDP:
Mt khái nim quan trng và d thay i
Mt khái nim quan trng và d thay i

(E<F !"/+C

:

+=



%0TB-%
K/X7-%
'
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 23
GNP
GNP
và GDP
và GDP

x .  P"#
:XED%?7-B
AE-;HD/?3

x . /  !"#
:XED%?7-
8A E-;H5Dc3
 P"W !"#Z:?:>8#
W :?8#

5
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 24
Câu hi tho lun:
Câu hi tho lun:
|8A !"  P"+8
wXw
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 25
(GNP
(GNP
–
–
GDP)
GDP)
theo % GDP
theo % GDP
 mt s n c,
 mt s n c,
1997.
1997.
}3x3~3 NA2
f+&a QAQ
f•+ r9AN

(& rQA9
(+a rmAm
)a+& r2SA9
n€ 9NAm
Ja7 rQA9
x&~E QAQ
xa iA9


CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 26
(GNP
(GNP
–
–
GDP)
GDP)
theo %GDP
theo %GDP
 mt s n c,
 mt s n c,
1997.
1997.
}3x3~3 NA2g

f+&a QAQ
f•+ r9AN

(& rQA9
(+a rmAm
)a+& r2SA9
n€ 9NAm
Ja7 rQA9
x&~E QAQ
xa iA9


CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 27
GDP Th!c t và Danh ngha
GDP Th!c t và Danh ngha

!"%0 B-%%4
&046'/=7-3

012/+Cc%0
a%,3

0134/+Cc%0
a%BTD3
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 28

GDP th!c t và lm phát
GDP th!c t và lm phát
x\/B !"&1IH+&

\/B%

\/B+=
x\/B !" $ IH&\/
B+=A
ED4M !"\</=Va%/0
BTD3
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 29
Thc hành, phn
Thc hành, phn
1
1

V !"&1BYT

V !"\<BYTa%
BTD9NN23
9NNQ9NN99NN2
9NjO2NN9NNO2N92k9O2NN f
23NjNOQS23NNNOQ2kNNOQN ~
u"u"u"
6

CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 30
áp án ca phn 1
áp án ca phn 1

!"&1
?" euB'T
9NN2OiS39NN
ZOQN× kNNvO2NN × 2k9
9NN9Oj23iNN
9NNQOjm3QNN

!"\<
?uBYT48%DT
9NN2
9NN2OiS3QNN
9NN9OjN3NNN
9NNQOj93NNN
ZOQN× 2NjNvO2NN × 9Nj
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 31
!"\<4&1BJ1A
!"\<4&1BJ1A
2kSh

2kSh
r
r
9NN2
9NN2
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
(t" ôla M)
NGDP (billions of $) RGDP (billions of 1996 $)
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 32
Ch s i#u chnh GDP
Ch s i#u chnh GDP

56!78" +]TT
B%3


J8/B%+9: 
901A /=V
×
!"
!"&
! Z2NN
!"a
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 33
Thc hành,
Thc hành,
phn
phn
2
2

xG&6/%%B]8/HV$/5
$ !"BYT3

xG&6$/5$ !"/HV*+,+X%
>9NN2 /< 9NN9A4>9NN9 /<9NNQ3
j93NNN
jN3NNN
OiS39NN
!"\
<

!
!"
jm3QNN9NNQ
j23iNN9NN9
rrr
OiS39NN9NN2
*+,+X
%
!"&
1
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 34
áp án ca phn
áp án ca phn
2
2
j93NNN
jN3NNN
OiS39NN
!"\
<
229A2
2N9Am
2NNAN
!
!"
k32gjm3QNN9NNQ

93mgj23iNN9NN9
rrr
OiS39NN9NN2
*+,+X
%
!"&
1
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 35
Ch s i#u chnh GDP
Ch s i#u chnh GDP
sV&648Q%
%
i
Z2A9AQ
"
it
Z%0CB%
i
%

u
it
Z+=B%
i
7-%


!"
t
Z !"&1B%

!"
t
Z !" \<B%

7
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 36
Ch s i#u chnh GDP
Ch s i#u chnh GDP
= ×

!"

!"
! 
!"
100
2 2 9 9 Q Q

" u " u " u
• !"
+ +
= ×100

 
     
= × + +
 
     
 
     
 
2 9 Q
2 9 Q
  
u u u
" " "
!" !" !"
100
($/5$ !" +EMI@B%3
@BY+X%%]@
/B%/I !"3
(‚F@IH/aC3
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 37
Tính phn trm thay i
Tính phn trm thay i
s& P<5+aCBEXTjg
4C+4,T hgA
M:5+T7-7$29g3
(%2 s8E-;`E<(

4
-
A
]T/B
(
×
-
#
≈ ]T/B
(
v]T/B
-
(%2
(%2
s8E-;`E<
s8E-;`E<
(
(
4
4
-
-
A
A
]T/B
]T/B
(
(
×
×

-
-
#
#
≈
≈


]
]


T
T


/
/


B
B


(
(
v
v
]T/B
]T/B

-
-
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 38
Tính phn trm thay i
Tính phn trm thay i
s& !
!"
Z2NN× !"

t !"

3
P< !"

T kg4 !"

T igA
M*+,+X%7-7$ jg3
(%9
]T/B
(t-
#
≈ ]T/B
(
−
−−

− ]T/B
-
(%9
(%9
]T/B
]T/B
(
(
t
t
-
-
#
#
≈
≈
]T/B
]T/B
(
(
−
−−
−
−
−−
−


]
]



T
T


/
/


B
B


-
-
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 39
GDP th!c t theo chu$i
GDP th!c t theo chu$i

aC%//A&4:T
D/=::C;`3

s5EA y !"\<aYz::T
DYT3


o5+ !"\<aYV7%
 !"a%/03

8/I/A4
4,V !"\<a%/0&ƒ&{

{&4:G&6 !"\<Va
%/03
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 40
Ch s giá tiêu dùng
Ch s giá tiêu dùng
(CPI)
(CPI)

l8/45%

o=KEED5;5 <
=>#

o=G&6/H
W
a&„\/BVX
BC&'/HM
W
/5$%=/La+X%
W

%c;5D%T
;%
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 41
GSO xây dng CPI nh th nào
GSO xây dng CPI nh th nào
23
o5/M/H7%/0
]B…%/HM
93
.%:+,45%B
>d…†VVVB
…
Q3
(")%EF48
×
(&
2NN
(;
8
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 42
Bài tp:
Bài tp:

Tính
Tính
CPI
CPI
…L 9N%42N/1(!3
a
% (!
9NNN O2N O2j
9NN2 O22 O2j
9NN9 O29 O2S
9NNQ O2Q O2j
YTUV
 VB…
 (")G&6T
9NNN+TD#
 *+,+X%48
T8
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 43
V *+,
… (") +X%
9NNN OQjN 2NNAN rrr
9NN2 QhN 2NjAh jAhg
9NN9 iNN 22iAQ mA2g
9NNQ i2N 22hA2 9Ajg
áp án:
áp án:

CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 44
Thành phn ca gi hàng tính CPI (ca M)
Thành phn ca gi hàng tính CPI (ca M)
16.2%
40.0%
4.5%
17.6%
5.8%
5.9%
2.8%
2.5%
4.8%
Thc phm và 
ung
Nhà 
qun áo
i li
Chm sóc y t
Gii trí
Giáo dc
Liên lc
HH & DV khác
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics

slide 45
Ch s giá
Ch s giá
CPI
CPI
sV&648Q%
.%
i
Z2A9AQ
(
i
Z+=%
i
…(")
"
it
Z%%
i
%

‡

ZVB… (")%

‡
E
ZVB…C;`D
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics

The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 46
Ch s giá CPI
Ch s giá CPI
= ×

E
‡
(")
‡
100
 
2 2 9 9 Q Q
E
" ( v " ( v " (
‡
= ×100
Q
2 9
2 9 Q
E E E
(
( (
" " "
‡ ‡ ‡
 
     
= × + +
 
     

 
     
 
100
(")+EMI@B%+X%3
@BY+X%%]@
/B%/I… (")3
(‚F@/0aC3
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 47
Nhng lý do ti sao CPI
Nhng lý do ti sao CPI
có th phóng i lm phát
có th phóng i lm phát

?!@4 (")G&6@/0A &4:I
;KH%;TC&'H
&'c%I%/3

=3AB!8C x\7-,%
8+C&'U4A\-
++T%0\B/L53 I;K
+(")AED4M(")G&6@/03

DE%:3@;B%
x\<-+=+T%0/L5A
IC;K/=V/<%/]/B3

9
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 48
 lch ca CPI
 lch ca CPI

f;"a+8V
(")I/X\TBV
X2A2gYT3

n< 6;J1/U/5
$%V(")F++,
3

PCF/+,(")-
2gT3
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 49
Ch # tho lun:
Ch # tho lun:

P<EBEX:/==-7UA
E0DMED/+,(")w


(VB+-5D/?/H=-
7Uw

P<EX<:4EH7U
A/+,(")ID<
/<EXw

l,IVB%5=
-7UEBEXw

…%&'BEEXIM
;%48…%&'/HV(")w
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 50
CPI
CPI
và ch s i#u chnh
và ch s i#u chnh
GDP
GDP
%%E
^
/=%!
!"
</=7-
8#
^

;K/=%(")
%&':;
^
/=%(")
^
;K/=%!
!"
…%
^
(")/0
^
!
!"
 /T
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 51
Hai th c o lm phát
Hai th c o lm phát
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

-
2
% thay i
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973
Nm
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998
CPI
D
GDP
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 52
Các thành phn trong tng dân s
Các thành phn trong tng dân s

F!8
\,K4,/=

B!"
;KI4,/M4,

3%/
+=+/ˆ7-%
4&046†-cCI4,
-,

G83%/
;KI4,A;KM4,3

CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 53
Hai khái nim quan trng v#
Hai khái nim quan trng v#
l!c lng lao ng
l!c lng lao ng

6!B!"
]T+\+=+/;KI
4,+

6!83%/
]&?4+\+=+
/
10
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 54
Bài tp:
Bài tp:
Tính nhng thng kê v lc
Tính nhng thng kê v lc
lng lao ng
lng lao ng
0: H#,2"IF8J

K8 LMML
(I4,+ Z 2QiAN ++
-, Z mAS ++
!?D Z 92QAj ++
xG&6+,/HV
^
+\+=+/
^
C;KT+\+=+/
^
*+,4+\+=+/
^
*+,-,
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 55
áp án:
áp án:

+,
*
Z2QiANA
N
ZmASA
1>1
Z92QAj

+\+=+/

?
Z
*
v
N
Z2QiAN vmAS Z2i9AS

;KF+\+=+/
'?O
Z
1>1
W
?
Z92QAj W 2i9AS ZhNAk

*+,-,
NP?
ZmASt2i9AS ZNANS  SANg

*+,4+\+=+/
?P1>1
Z2i9ASt92QAj ZNASSm  SmAmg
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 56
Bài tp:
Bài tp:
Tính phn trm thay i ca

Tính phn trm thay i ca
các thng kê v lc lng lao ng
các thng kê v lc lng lao ng
GF

&?T 2g

+\+=+/T Qg

C-,T 9g
V]T/B
*+,4+\+=+/ LQ
*+,-,+ RQ
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 57

l/I4,+7-
!"A_+/;KI4,+M
;K3
!4:&\/%
,0c-,
4 !"\<3

J,/=$„
+,{
Quy lut Okun
Quy lut Okun

CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 58
Quy lut Okun
Quy lut Okun
1951
1984
1999
2000
1993
1982
1975
Thay i ca t l
tht nghip
10
-3
-2
-1
0 1 2 43
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Phn trm thay i
ca GDP thc t
Quy lut Okun cho

rng mt phn trm
gim ca tht nghip
tng ng vi hai
phn trm tng ca
GDP thc t
Quy lut Okun cho
rng mt phn trm
gim ca tht nghip
tng ng vi hai
phn trm tng ca
GDP thc t
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 59
Tóm t%t chng
Tóm t%t chng
23
xu !"#/+C
:445%4&046
B5;<3
93
!"&1/0%+=a%,
† !"\</0%+= a%
/03x\/B+=ID/<
8/A\/B%
$D/< !"&13
Q3
!"+&'A/]AVBA

47-;_3
11
CHAPTER 2
CHAPTER 2
The Data of Macroeconomics
The Data of Macroeconomics
slide 60
Tóm t%t chng
Tóm t%t chng
i3
J%IH/=VEF

$%&' (")#A
%…%/0/=
EDC&'/HM
d

$/5$ !"A
*c !"&14\<
j3
*+,-,+]+\+=+
/;KI4,+3
n-,TA/TD
!"\<3