Kinh tế vĩ mô 2 _ chương 13: Tổng Cung docx

1
kinh t v mô
bn th nm
N. Gregory Mankiw
Bài ging ca Phm Th Anh

(dch và sa theo bài ging ca Ron Cronovich)
macro
© 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved
CHNG 13
Tng Cung
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 1
Mc tiêu ca chng
Mc tiêu ca chng
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
 
!"
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# !"$" 
%&'(')*+
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 2
Ba mô hình tng cung

Ba mô hình tng cung
,-
./!
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2-
. !
3%45
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

CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 3

Mô hình tin lng cng nhc
Mô hình tin lng cng nhc

>?@ :'%A
/%&B/:C
1<= DEF-
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G/:CH
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ωω
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CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 4
Mô hình tin lng cng nhc
Mô hình tin lng cng nhc

K=#=
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G&'%L#8
G/#=&/
8H:MF :'88
%N88
#8
G/#=/
8H:MF :'D8I
/%E9
:#8
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 5

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1. Mc giá tng
….
3.
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. .
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. và thu nhp
2.
. làm gim
tin lng thc t

khi tin lng
danh ngha không I…
.
6. ng tng
cung tng kt
lI nhng thay
I này.
(a) Cu lao ng (b) Hàm sn xut
(c) Tng cung
2
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 6
Mô hình tin lng cng nhc
Mô hình tin lng cng nhc

O%4@/#=%
1;H
%F(
1;1:5
P G*1;H1
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*NH
/#=D-
P G*1;F H1
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/#=DN-

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Q# %F1R=#5
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 7
Hành vi chu k ca tin lng thc t
Hành vi chu k ca tin lng thc t
% thay i ca
tin lng
thc t
% thay i ca GDP thc t
1982
1975
1993
1992
1960
1996
1999
1997
1998
1979
1970
1980
1991
1974
1990
1984
2000

1972
1965
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 7 8654
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 8
Mô hình thông tin không hoàn ho
Mô hình thông tin không hoàn ho
3 B5
 </% "H
<B*A@
 S%&E&% H
%8:%
 S%&= :
CJ% %E&H
1)  
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13

Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 9
Mô hình thông tin không hoàn ho
Mô hình thông tin không hoàn ho

3S% % /
9J% 5 :C
 -
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:MF?: 1;<H
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UNH:MFE&
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V%E&FMMFH
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CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 10
Mô hình giá c cng nhc
Mô hình giá c cng nhc

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P  W:%"$:'%
1 %
P I#/
P  :'19%
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P 3 :'=M JI<
6I:"I
)F7
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 11
Mô hình giá c cng nhc

Mô hình giá c cng nhc

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 a XY-
>?":'5
Z  :' "H=M 
8
Z  :' !H=M
 1<= BJ

%

D
EF5
6 7
   
= + −a
6 7
  
   
= + −a
3
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 12
Mô hình giá c cng nhc
Mô hình giá c cng nhc


>?@:' !
1;<@DL#8-
GH
6 7
  
   
= + −a

 
=

[(EAF:#*8
RD( -

V4'

%\]:' 
!- GR(= 

CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 13
Mô hình giá c cng nhc
Mô hình giá c cng nhc

G^ 6,−


7

^=5
6, 7_ 6 7`

      
= + − + −a
 =MLQK
 "
 =MLQK
 !
6, 7_6 7`

     
= + − −a

3=

5
6, 7
6 7


   

−
 
= + −
 
 

a
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 14
Mô hình giá c cng nhc
Mô hình giá c cng nhc


T



K= :'1;< H$:
'=M D=M -
3 :'1 D@ =M
 -





VMH]% -3 :'
 "D=M -
3%:' "H

%aH
%∆


% =

-
6, 7
6 7


   

−
 
= + −
 
 
a
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 15
Mô hình giá c cng nhc
Mô hình giá c cng nhc

39HR*bc@ 


5
6, 7
6 7



   

−
 
= + −
 
 
a
6 7H

   
= + −
α
αα
α
=
−
:
6, 7


α
αα
α
a
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply

slide 16
Mô hình giá c cng nhc
Mô hình giá c cng nhc
G /!H
 !%4/#=
M
1;
5
>?dM-GH
 3]eJ :'
-
 3 :' !!
E&H%:MF%]
-
 c#:BF( J]
%/#=-
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 17
Tóm tt & ý ngha
Tóm tt & ý ngha
.S
%49
)'
1=L
/f
*
cgbc



hgbc

cgbc
6 7

   
= + −
α
αα
α

 
=

 
>

 
<
4
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 18
Tóm tt & ý ngha
Tóm tt & ý ngha
>?R9]

%N
88#8
%

88%
<*U1;<-


hgbc
cgbc
,
= + −
5 6 7

   
α
αα
αcgbc
, ,

 
=
cgbc
0
bQ
,
bQ
0
0



=
0

2 2

 
=
GT*H

T
NH
cgbc
:B88H
%L"
#8-
,
 
=
0

2

=
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 19
Lm phát, Tht nghip và

Lm phát, Tht nghip và
ng
ng
Phillips
Phillips
 =
π
ππ
π
%
 " 1;<H
π
ππ
π
T
 5 # 8'J\
' &'#= \ ' # 8
  R 9H
ν
νν
ν
= − − +
6 7
π π β ν
π π β νπ π β ν
π π β ν
 
 

β

ββ
β
XY% @9-
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 20
Xây dng ng
Xây dng ng
Phillips
Phillips
t
t
SRAS
SRAS
6,7 6 7

   
α
αα
α
= + −
607 6, 76 7

   
α
αα
α
= + −

, ,
6i76 7 6 7 6, 76 7

     
α ν
α να ν
α ν
− −
− = − + − +
6j7 6, 76 7

 
π π α ν
π π α νπ π α ν
π π α ν
= + − +
6k7 6, 76 7 6 7

   
α β
α βα β
α β
− = − −
6l7 6 7
 
 
π π β ν
π π β νπ π β ν
π π β ν
= − − +

627 6, 76 7

   
α ν
α να ν
α ν
= + − +
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 21
ng Phillips và
ng Phillips và
SRAS
SRAS

[*
cgbc
5
8)=$=
11;<J 

[*+5
&'8)=$=
11;<J\'" 
cgbc5 6 7

   
α

αα
α
= + −
= − − +
+5 6 7
 
 
π π β ν
π π β νπ π β ν
π π β ν
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 22
K vng thích nghi
K vng thích nghi

5 %/ 
B@<*=M1;<
J<" /:#8"
 ) ]-

.I:/5
h" 1;<m" EF
N
,
6 7

 

π π β ν
π π β νπ π β ν
π π β ν
−
= − − +
,

π π
π ππ π
π π
−
=

K8*+-3-L%
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 23
Tính ì ca lm phát
Tính ì ca lm phát

GT:"%FH*+ %4"
 I5
P V1 R9F&
'1;H" D9BL
'"J-
P h" ) 1L=
1;<" '"H%1;<
%F"L=/f 

%<*=M-
,
6 7

 
π π β ν
π π β νπ π β ν
π π β ν
−
= − − +
5
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 24
Hai nguyên nhân lm phát tng & gim
Hai nguyên nhân lm phát tng & gim

 !"5 " E&
 ^ R9-
3 R9&*%N
IE&%1=:'
N HneFo" 8-

#$5 " : 
R9]-
3 R9:/9]1=
&'E9:#
8Hn1po\'" 8-

,
6 7

 
π π β ν
π π β νπ π β ν
π π β ν
−
= − − +
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 25
V ng Phillips
V ng Phillips
G!"H 
%"BI
 9q
# $
π
ππ
π
%

-

π
ππ
π



,
β
ββ
β
[*+
!"

π ν
π νπ ν
π ν
+
6 7
 
 
π π β ν
π π β νπ π β ν
π π β ν
= − − +
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 26
Dch chuyn ng Phillips
Dch chuyn ng Phillips
GT*
<*
r1;<

J<H:MF
# r
W"
!"

π
ππ
π


,

π ν
π νπ ν
π ν
+
6 7
 
 
π π β ν
π π β νπ π β ν
π π β ν
= − − +
0

π
ππ
π
ν
νν

ν
+
sI:H#N
J
π
ππ
π

:BF(
*+3!"
88-
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 27
T l ánh i
T l ánh i

[(" H %"B
I (!q]H
1=&'N88\
'#8J-

%&  '*]N
>Q+#=JNF
(" ,t-

3 1=)1 H
F8=% j-

CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 28
T l ánh i
T l ánh i

>? %"BI 
9" ^kE9u 0t-
K=\' % jH'" 
it]F i×jm0Yt>Q+J
N-

[%F ( #'@
 HI :
P >Q+0YtN
P >Q+,YtSNu0N
P  >Q+jtSNuiN

3IJ'" %]>Q+&
- v"(?:)FM w1(
F(I%F&'-
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 29
K vng hp lý
K vng hp lý

3   '=M1;<5
 
5
<*=M1;<J<"
 /:#8" ) 
]-
 ()
5
.<*=M1;<J<:#8
& xHW
$I '"%/
-
6
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 30
Gim phát không có chi phí?
Gim phát không có chi phí?

K$*E&1;<4@
\' %&a5

>?

m

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%

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π
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π
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π
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mktH
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%&1;]=(" 
^kE9u0t%%9-

K= 8% MFH

π
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π
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D H D %   it-

QMFH
π
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 ( % 1%N

-
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13

Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 31
T l ánh i trong vic
T l ánh i trong vic
gim lm phát ca
gim lm phát ca
Volcker
Volcker

,z{,5π
ππ
π mzHlt
,z{j5π
ππ
π m2HYt
,H,kHYlH,,z{j
,HikHYlHi,z{i
2HjkHYzHj,z{2
2HjtkHYtzHjt,z{0
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−−
−
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G zHjt
G  mkHlt

CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 32
T l ánh i trong vic
T l ánh i trong vic
gim lm phát ca Volcker
gim lm phát ca Volcker

|:T5
P "  kHlt
P &'1;% zHjt

}FMw15
S]NJ\'&'%4
&0t-
QMFHzHjt&'1;/
,zHYt>Q+JN-
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G\'  m6>Q+&7d6 7
m,zdkHlm0H{]N >Q+U&(
" ,t-
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 33
Gi thuyt v t l t nhiên
Gi thuyt v t l t nhiên

+AIJRI" H%$
=1=$/H:#
8*"+,&-.5
Nhng thay i ca tng cu ch có nh
hng n sn lng và vic làm trong
ngn hn.
Trong dài hn, nn kinh t tr v mc
sn lng, vic làm, và tht nghip nh
ã mô t trong mô hình c in
(chng 3-8).
Nhng thay i ca tng cu ch có nh
Nhng thay i ca tng cu ch có nh
hng n sn lng và vic làm trong
hng n sn lng và vic làm trong
ngn hn.
ngn hn.
Trong dài hn, nn kinh t tr v mc
Trong dài hn, nn kinh t tr v mc
sn lng, vic làm, và tht nghip nh
sn lng, vic làm, và tht nghip nh
ã mô t trong mô hình c in
ã mô t trong mô hình c in
(
(
chng
chng
3
3
-
-

8).
8).
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 34
Mt gi thuyt khác:
Mt gi thuyt khác:
tính tr
tính tr
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$=\'&'#8-
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K$R9&(%N

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H:MF
1=(1W%%
5
 V~NJ$A&'1;
(B1&'H%<1
('1F 1=R-
 K$A&'1;( 
&LJ<9'=M
/•$*6A
'7(q//
<-QMFn$*%o&'
1;(L%&'/&1

F 1=R-
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 35
Tóm tt chng
Tóm tt chng
,- v!"5
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/!
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 !
3%4@N
8#81 :
 1;<-
7
CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 36
Tóm tt chng
Tóm tt chng
0-[*+
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CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 37
Tóm tt chng
Tóm tt chng
2- 3*=M1;<" =
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CHAPTER 13
CHAPTER 13
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply
slide 38
Tóm tt chng
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