KINH tế 2014 và TRIỂN VỌNG 2015



K HOCH PHT TRIN KT-XH NĂM 2014 V KHUYN NGH CHNH
SCH
      !"                 

# $$%&'() $$ !*+,-(.)$/ 012 
 ! "#$ %
3 4.,  ,  5   !*  6  78&  '#  (  ()  * (  %  $+  (,  
-
9 $  ':  ;    < ./  *+  0  12       34  #(  
5
= $ !*;20120(&6,
 
> $$4.,?(@7438474+(% 
3
A 4.,,9  5+474+(:23;34-
<()* (
B $ !*'.=>>??3:/*+012@4+(
A$>
C D:  ,E  FG  FH2  I     %  (B4    (  C(  ()
* (
#
JKLMNO#P#Q#P9
 $ER712 (D(043&@4,$(3
# $$%,E5FSFFTUV  (D(04"%:(&
= (1E, F(1G-
3 $$ !*,W785$EXY( (D(04"%
:(&?H (1/3((
9 $$ !*+R (D(04"%:(&)4:H
3@4,#(, 1G-(%1%8

= $%7 ;F (D(041B4(I&012, 

> $+8$Z[5FSFFTUV=D(5$A+1B4:(&#(
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,F?!)!F?!.<1<#,5!<8f
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_()* (`*40011B4(I%<a(%1B45
Rõ ràng họ phải lựa chọn giữa tăng trưởng và việc làm với tăng nợ công và bội
chi ngân sách trong ngắn hạn.
#SF&F,_pS,S]h !EaqH1_
I4g!1-[A.!,!C<1<1'1
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# !Ea
2.1. Các nguyên nhân có tính cơ cấu
KI\Y1%'g1
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y:!!4z%<0,+1Yj4At#!01%)H!
!E!![)YY4X<!!,4!.HH)!
$\'
yI\Y14$=Yf#:!41-)Fd<!.1@
FA
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F88<1:!-#1#g/,:!-7)Fd:!%_!)6%
Z !.q!MqOz?cY#)Q#Z !Fd/
e!d+Y1.q_\
2.2. Nguyên nhân về mô hình tăng trưởng
>:!F?!.-1@0@!!-1;)$1
!1-[)+1Yo19!01Y%)H!Y4!!4.A;f!!01Y=Ee
!,
4," RU ?(e21pTFH2+,-(2:U1]n,:T(UinF
XC,0.XfcB)H!P1;UsB{V!01Y%)H!
.T=h!|.XB#R".>%-0#Ran1;#R"u!4C
A;f!!01Y)!!4!F?!!-!!,XCD
F(![#!F?!XrO)',!#Q#!,+1;!
QW#2Q#4e+1;!F8Q
=)(b-4"#%( (-4+1B4%A(B4%3I
?3c4@4,3I%244S(4:J5-0(51+(4M

(B4,>*d4:4-d55- $0AUI;@4
2.3. Những nguyên nhân từ điều hành kinh tế
O,c!/0?H0;():!d4%i#%4c'4[
l0A15!-1l<\Y1:!F?!
2.4. Những biểu hiện tương đồng trong khủng hoảng tài chính và suy thoái kinh
tế toàn cầu với bất ổn vĩ mô ở Việt Nam.
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/#/%}-<1

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Cơ chế quản lý thị trường tài chính bất cẩn
2
Bảng: Dự báo kinh tế thế giới của IMF (Tháng 7)
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(,"]&#P=
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)1!A0!g#!1],d0•I$03T[1-
KX1P1-A/E#F8!=g'H,!Y4#%:!
3SF,_,cSc(ƒFp€!(R(~
3,_,cSc@'
Ko-',/#,:F(!)$1F
„[1$1-)!)FdX.F8!I/4.T)'P1-%>H:!
:!Y<1<U/+%:!Y<1:!0ƒe!:!!:!
)%;\#F!%t!@P11HVX!t!
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)<F\!,.e/!e-=z)!
)')Fd5!P1,/@F!:F(!zYlX8=
HF\!:!:,)Fd:!)%F(!)Fd#:!)%F(!)Fd
:!P1,%i)Fd%$-t!)F)Fd[1/)%F(!)P1,%i)Fd
I$4e)-#'[H40;!#HP1C!)H!}:!c
F8
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$!1]),U=f4$.qF8:!$!0?51
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\Y1qV
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F(!1=dU0ƒB1g=Y)H!0,B1g?V
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!)<1T'!q,!Q)1-/+1Yo14:!
!4wd
3#SFd,-cSc( b/,'

3.2. 1.Đẩy mạnh tái cơ cấu nền kinh tế
K•A-@!EF(!)'@[=eHUEF(!#
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!5f4$4;#)A-%H1!.-1.\Y1qXC)UV@
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q9UV%'=j 0@4A=);+ƒ!}!4:!4A=
4$#'%g4:F(!'=)…!!5q9UV4A)E†
#P1-<'..0?51F8)'.0?51'qX8c
!@.0?51F8j\P1@c!P1,%iF8
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0;@X1-[#i!vP1 !</E+6H.:!!4#:!
::!A#$)'\Y1:!!4!78+A-@!:!:8
HH1! !A.\Y1U&!8=H1! !A!EP1-.
aH!EX‡sss)6+)EV
X\Y1:!!4$)Fd)]!([F8!
yL1-/g41!1H!)YC:4F\!c1#
&-1H)3)*!)E=#h'&!0,+1!%8#1-[
n1))F:!!4 :!!0,+1Y:!!4#P1,%i
Y%Fd!0@4o#f)E!1]1!#1w!E*

1:]!#=)%F1:!#=,),4A4;%d/d4%i!5A1!
1w!E)
yˆ!e! :!!#)3=%:!!0 #:!!:!
#G1g1:]!#=:!!4#*!=F85!fd4
:!K:!!4:!!
yI\1-/q#,qrqs)$1F:!!4:!:#
h'<1!!<8#t)o-1-E\Y1%)H!!:!

!4:!:
3.2.2. Chuyển đổi mô hình tăng trưởng
Ko-'c!e!:!!#)3=%:!!:!UIXXV!0,
+1YP1,%i#IXX%H<,!.4F\!c48A!c
)!!4.A;f!!01Y :!!#Y%Fd!!1]A%@
G!P1,%i)'UXrOV!F?!A-/%!,44\=,)A!
101Y0ƒe!;#!,0;sI{‰!)$1F
KO:!!4wd#')<1$0@4e1H<!1-[%1
)$10,4o1!!X1!n1;
3.2.3 Chủ động hội nhập quốc tế, xây dựng chương trình hành động nhằm tận
dụng các cơ hội, vượt qua những thách thức khi nước ta tham gia các Hiệp định Mậu
dịch tự do mới, nhất là TPP và FTA Việt Nam - EUg
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
„k…†+jO+M
B„#P9+j74N
$$%&'(
$$ !*+,-(.
$/ 012
[',&F,(W iFba
D:(@(
Lv:t!24e)Fdf)E+1F8!4e]
.<T0;![1&!!Y4#AF\!'4e3!F#T0;
0,+1Y:!!4!Xf!c=%Š!\08!SIT0;<.
!F([1&!)'!E"#")#Y/*!)-IT0;0,
+1Y!:!!4!N#SQ#\08&!bF8U#QVF!
Y4\c!=P1AS#Q.F8IT0;]!:!!4
=#''()R2R#!#Q08&!()#
\08&!bF8UWQV\c1!=.U#2QVF
g-#/14e]*4/0,+1Y%F†!#T0;0,+1Y!

:!!4!F!%'Y4\c!=P1A#T0;]
!:!!4=#'!\c1!=.F8D
@)!!F?!%'4.2!)$1
:!P1=0;4,0@=)H!.;1H<f!1!f!
$1.<}!F@/0\=,%/0<
/0!(!P1n1)#g/1#+1g)H!.<
@=Z%!F?!%'4LP1,![c1Y-<
0@4e]F†!,*4/1!%z4/$1a/0v
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)F\!NW1xuq#!,S#"Q!,"#Q
<EF(!!+1Yo12!#a_Lbz%EF(!+1Yo1%8
Y.82#"Zxuq#!#"Q08&!b94)%^x
8S#WZxuq#!#Q9Œu^Œ)'#Zxuq#!#"Q9X1!n1;)'W#2Z
xuq#!"#Q#\<108c!#NQ.&!b9gD,

)'W#WZxuq#!#SQ9an1;)'#Zxuq#!#Q
• Nhập khẩu
L!'!g4o1@!S)'#WNZxuq#!"1
xuq080;F8/#!)+!$1!21xuq907#l4!NW1xuq
L!'!g4o1!2F8/)'#WZxuq#!,#"Q08
!F8#!)1@;)$1FF8!)'S#Zxuq#!,#"Q#1
@!F8)'"#SZxuq#!,#"QL!'!g4o1!2
!#Q08&!bF8#!)1@;)$1FF8!!
#Q#1@!F8!"#SQ
X/1!2!-#!'!g4o1F8/)'W"#Z
xuq#!Q08&!b#=!]L1@!F8)'#W
Zxuq#!#Q91@;)$1FF8!)'"#Zxuq#!#WQ
L!'!g4o12!-!0@)!!4.H0;3
!-=E!1-[#4e%14ee0,+1Y>-=E#e!e4e
&!)'#NZxuq#!#"Q08&!b9,)'N#Zxuq#!
N#Q9+!$1)'"#WZxuq#!N#SQ9YŠ)'#Zxuq#!Q9!1-[4e
%1#-#!-l4)'#Zxuq#!N#Q9c!0t!1-[4e%1)'#
Zxuq#!2#"Q9%'F(!)'#Zxuq#!2#2Q90,4oY)'
#Zxuq#!S#Q90,4oYŠ)'Zxuq#!#Q9!w0,4o!w)'
#NZxuq#!S#"Q9=:!)'W221xuq#!2#Q
>H0;3!!'g4o12!!,08&!bF8
ƒ#-/%)'#Zxuq#!,#2Q9)'%'%
)'"#Zxuq#!,#SQ94A=)'SW1xuq#!,W#WQ94F\!g,
4e&!)'"1xuq#!,"#Q901)'S1xuq#!,S#WQ9+C
-%#4e&!)'W1xuq#!,#"Q
W
<EF(!!g4o12!-#X1!n1;1-z%E
F(!g4o1%8Y8!')'S#NZxuq#!S#Q0
8&!b#F!Y4\c!SQ.&!bF8q)g4
0[1*X1!n1;2!F8/)'S#2Zxuq#!2#"Q08&!b

Y4\c!"Q.&!bX4)%Œu^Œ8"#Z
xuq#!2#Q9an1;)'Zxuq#!"#SQ9gD,)'2#Zxuq#!2Q9
^x)'"#2Zxuq#!,W#Q9aLb#Zxuq#!W#WQ
• Xuất khẩu ròng
>cg40[1!S%W1xuq#Y4\"1xuq080;F8/
X!2+1Y0[1F8/1xuq•1Y0[12!%#SZxuq#=h!#2Q
f!!'+1Yo1#!)1@)$1F@4F8!U,$1:V
+1Y0[1#2NZxuq91@!F8g40[1#NZxuq
=,:'Fy ?(Ycq€ ]/FSFa(:',
(VF,-(f1(S
4S&A(R(6,74
>,:'FYcq€ e8!qW(op% R:#P3]/#P9{(‡Š}
4S&A(R(6,74
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A,:'Fy ?(q€ e8!qW(op% R:#P3]/#P9{‡Š}
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!S#Q90,+1Y0,4o*%')t0•U*-=EV!#2Q90,
+1Y!Y-0,4o*!Y-!#Q90,+1Y!4e!#NQ90,+1Y
4A4;)!#Q>H0;!c!u,+1Y%'!W#Q9
0,+1Y)]1;!!2#Q>H0;!c!Y43!,u,+1Y#=
@4o!"#Q90,+1Y=E)!#WQ90,+1YY0,4o
Y!#Q90,+1Y0,4o*014%0!#WQ9c!
!,#Q9$1:/);@[!,#Q90,+1Y1;%
!,#Q
X!0,4o0,+1Y#H0;0,4o)'c!2!08
&!b')H!!#Q9::!S#WQ9l4!#2Q9
!#Q9!-l4!S#NQ905F\!N#WQ9,*0d@[!
"#NQ>H0;0,4o!!#SQ9 0,=!#SQ9=H
!34o&!o-#ƒ!#Q>H0;0,4o!,08&!
b•C-!,#SQ91;%)1!,#Q9/%j!!,S#SQ905=H!,

IT0;0,+1Y:!!41!=!!=P1A08&!b%S#Q

#2Q9)!,#Q9=H! !,#"Q9$1:!,#2QU)'#1Y#+Y4
+TSQ'.Xg4)q$1/V94Awd4U#O#LV!,#NQ9
07#l4:!,#Q

=f*+S3%%(I($J(%LonN
IT0;]!:!!4=#''()R2R#
!#Q08&!()>H0;!T0;]!Y4\
c!1!3!,u,+1Y)]1;!!#Q90,+1Y=@4o
!#Q9!#"Q90,+1Y0,4o*014%0!#WQ90,+1Y
=E)!,#WQ90,+1Y0,4o1;%!,#SQ90,+1Y0,4o*!
4%'!,#2Q>H0;!T0;]!\<108
c!1!u,+1Y!Y-0,4o*!Y-!"#Q90,+1Y!4e!
N#Q90,+1Y4F\!g,!#NQ90,+1Y%'!N#"Q90,
+1Y1;#FdFd%1!#Q90,+1Y0,4o*%')t0•U*
-#=EV!#Q
XZ%]!:!!4=#'=P1AS!%SS#Q#
!)H0;!Z%]u,+1Y1;#FdFd%1"2#WQ9
0,+1YY0,4oY"#Q90,+1Y#=@4oWW#Q90,
+1Y0,4o*%')t0•2S#Q90,+1Y%'2W#Q
#iFpT(RFxUi/(Xq1FH2/F^,-cFWd,WFSF
(SU1]n,F.q0R:(nF{|}
4S&A(R(+3d
X!c!.T0;0,+1Y:!!4F\!);f)E#a
Y-T0;!])!+1F8!!<1-Y-,!Y4e!
.<zF0@,01<1w%@./4.!)<1
<
O=f*+@4,<4Ll.nN
IT0;n1,E1!!0,+1Y'.auDI)Fd+A-
@![5%11g4!!*P1,E1!?!40,
+1Y!,%(=,!A1j,0,0)Fd4AC1@)E
%iCX[11oOA!UusIV@[0@)!!4.!MqO.
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