Public Finance for Poverty Reduction

DIRECTIONS IN DEVELOPMENT

Poverty

Public Finance for
Poverty Reduction
Concepts and Case Studies from
Africa and Latin America
Blanca Moreno-Dodson and Quentin Wodon,
Editors


Public Finance for Poverty Reduction



Public Finance
for Poverty Reduction
Concepts and Case Studies from
Africa and Latin America
Edited by

Blanca Moreno-Dodson
Quentin Wodon

THE WORLD BANK
Washington, DC


©2008 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
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Washington DC 20433
Telephone: 202-473-1000
Internet: www.worldbank.org
E-mail:
All rights reserved
1 2 3 4

10 09 08 07

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ISBN: 978-0-8213-6826-8
eISBN: 978-0-8213-6827-5
DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-6826-8
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Public finance for poverty reduction : concepts and case studies from Africa and Latin America /
edited by Quentin Wodon, Blanca Moreno-Dodson.

p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-8213-6826-8 -- ISBN 978-0-8213-6827-5 (electronic)
1. Finance, Public--Developing countries. 2. Poverty--Government policy--Africa--Case studies.
3. Poverty--Government policy--Latin America--Case studies. 4. Africa--Social policy--Case studies.
5. Latin America--Social policy--Case studies. I. Wodon, Quentin. II. Moreno-Dodson, Blanca.
HJ1620.P826 2007
339.4'6091724--dc22
2007025942
Cover design by Quantum Think, Inc.
Cover photo by Richard Lord.


This work is dedicated to

Richard Musgrave
The Father of Modern Public Finance
(1910–2007)
Professor Musgrave was convinced that governments have
an important economic role to play, and that taxes and
public expenditures can be used to improve social welfare.
He served as a senior adviser to many governments, especially in
Latin America and Asia. One of the editors of this book
[B. Moreno-Dodson] was privileged to meet him at the
International Institute of Public Finance Congress
and to benefit from his wisdom on critical
public finance issues.
His legacy will endure.

Contents

Foreword
Preface
Abbreviations
Chapter 1

xvii
xxi
xxiii
Public Finance for Poverty Reduction:
An Overview
Blanca Moreno-Dodson and Quentin Wodon
Rationale for the Role of Government
Limits to Government Intervention in
Developing Countries
Structure of the Book
The Way Forward: Topics for Future Study
Conclusion
Notes
References

1

2
4
8
14
15

15
16

vii


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Public Finance for Poverty Reduction

Part One

Concepts in Public Finance: Debt, Taxation,
Public Expenditure Tracking Surveys, and Benefit
Incidence Analysis

19

Chapter 2

Debt Sustainability for Low-Income Countries:
A Review of Standard and Alternative Concepts
Danny Cassimon, Blanca Moreno-Dodson, and
Quentin Wodon
Traditional Approaches to Debt Sustainability:
A Brief Review
Operationalizing Debt Sustainability Concepts:
The HIPC Initiative
Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Debt
Sustainability

Conclusion
Notes
References

21

Chapter 3

Chapter 4

24
36
40
47
51
52

Revenue Design and Taxation
Eric M. Zolt
Objectives of Tax Systems
Criteria for Evaluating Taxes
Aggregate Level of Taxes
Relative Use of Different Tax Instruments
Effectiveness of Tax Instruments in Redistributing
Wealth or Income
Effectiveness of Particular Tax Provisions
in Reducing the Tax Burden on Poor People
Conclusion
Note
References

57

Assessing Front-line Service Delivery: Public
Expenditure Tracking Surveys
Ritva Reinikka and Jakob Svensson
Provider Surveys: Key Features and Potential Uses
Survey Applications in Selected Countries
Role and Adverse Consequences of Asymmetric
Information in Public Spending

89

58
61
69
71
77
80
86
87
87

91
95
102


Contents

Chapter 5

ix

Conclusion
Notes
References

105
107
108

The Impact of Budgets on the Poor: Tax and
Expenditure Benefit Incidence Analysis
Jorge Martinez-Vazquez
Analyzing Tax Incidence
Estimating the Incidence of Public Expenditures
Net Fiscal Incidence: Combining Tax and
Expenditure Incidence
Conclusion
Notes
References

113

115
135
147
150
152

157

Part Two

Case Studies from the Latin America and
the Caribbean Region

163

Chapter 6

Analyzing Debt Sustainability: An Application
of SimSIP Debt for Paraguay
Bernhard G. Gunter and Quentin Wodon
Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Debt
Sustainability
Theoretical Foundations for the Modules in
SimSIP Debt
Simulations for the Debt Projection Module
in Paraguay
Simulations for the Deficit-Debt Consistency
Module in Paraguay
Conclusion
Annex
Notes
References

165

Chapter 7

Evaluating a Tax System: Mexico
Jorge Martinez-Vazquez
Revenue Adequacy: Comparing across Countries
and Examining the Budget Deficit
Tax Structure

169
171
175
181
183
185
186
187
189
189
193


x

Public Finance for Poverty Reduction

Chapter 8

Chapter 9

Buoyancy of Revenues
Revenue Stability

Excess Burdens and Economic Distortions
Distribution of Tax Burdens
Weak Tax Administration and High Tax Evasion
A Potential Tax Reform Package: Feasibility,
Content, and Revenue Effects
Annex: Estimating Marginal Effective Tax Rates
on Investment
Notes
References

195
197
199
202
216
218

Measuring Targeting Performance through Public
Expenditure Tracking Surveys: Peru
José R. López-Cálix, Lorena Alcázar, and
Erik Wachtenheim
Central Government Targeting of Social Spending
Funding Transfers from Central to Local
Government: Efficiency Problems
Conclusion
Notes
References

233

Benefit Incidence Analysis and Social
Protection: Uruguay
Edmundo Murrugarra
What to Target? Basic Needs, Poverty, and
Social Exclusion
Overview of Existing Social Protection Programs
What Can We Learn?
Recommendations for Social Safety Net Programs
Annex: Estimating the Incidence of Social
Protection Programs
Notes
References

222
226
230

234
242
264
268
271
273

275
278
288
299
303
306

307


Contents

xi

Part Three

Case Studies from Africa

309

Chapter 10

Analyzing Debt Sustainability: Concepts and
Tools Applied for Guinea, Rwanda, and Senegal
Bernhard G. Gunter and Quentin Wodon
Review of Previous and Current Debt Relief
Initiatives
Debt Accumulation, Stagnation, and Debt Relief
Using Debt Projections to Analyze Debt
Sustainability
Using SimSIP Debt’s Deficit-Debt Consistency
Module
Conclusion
Notes
References

311

Chapter 11

Chapter 12

Analyzing the Potential Impact of Indirect Tax
Reforms on Poverty with Limited Data: Niger
Saloua Sehili and Quentin Wodon
Medium-Term Targets for Public Revenues and
Structure of Taxation
Assessing the Impact of Indirect Tax Reforms:
VAT Exemptions
Comparison of the Incidence of Taxation to the
Incidence of Social Spending
Conclusion
Notes
References
Tracking Public Expenditure in Health and
Education: Rwanda
Hippolyte Fofack
Methodology and Fieldwork
Budget Processes: Flows of Funds in the Health
and Education Sectors
Tracking the Flow of Funds in the Health Sector
Tracking the Flow of Funds and Its Impact in
the Education Sector

312
317
322

333
340
341
343
345

349
353
362
368
369
369
371

376
380
384
391


xii

Public Finance for Poverty Reduction

Chapter 13

Key Findings and Policy Implications
Conclusion
Annex
Notes

References

396
401
403
413
414

Assessing the Targeting Performance of Social
Programs: Cape Verde
Diego Angel-Urdinola and Quentin Wodon
Incidence of Public Transfers and Targeting
Performance
Factors That Determine Targeting Performance
Improving Targeting Performance
Conclusion
Notes
References

417

Index

419
423
428
435
437
438
441

Boxes
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4

Interagency Collaboration in Beneficiary Identification
and Delivery of Benefits
Appropriate Evaluations Can Improve Program Impact
and Efficiency: The Case of the PAE
Institutional and Budget Autonomy Producing Success:
ProJoven
How to Fail in Targeting the Poor When There Is a
Good Example: The Case of PNCA–P and PNCA–M

289
291
293
296

Figures
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
8.1

Initial Conditions and Basic Macroeconomic Assumptions

Results of Different Export Growth Scenarios
Assumptions on Public Domestic Debt
Results of the Baseline, Pessimistic, and Optimistic
Scenarios
Results of Different Revenue and Expenditure Scenarios
Lorenz Curves in Selected Social Programs

176
177
177
179
180
237


Contents

8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.6
10.7
10.8
10.9

10.10
10.11
10.12
10.13
10.14
10.15
10.16
11.1
13.1
13.2

Lorenz Curves for Health Care Expenditures
Lorenz Curves for Education Expenditures
Access to Social Programs, 2001
Lorenz Curves for Intergovernmental Transfers
Total External Debt, by Decades, 1970–2000
Total External Debt, Annually, 1990–2001
Total External Debt as a Share of Government
Revenues, 1990–2001
Total External Debt as Share of Exports, 1990–2001
Exports of Goods and Services, 1990–2001
Annual Growth Rates in Exports of Goods and
Services, 1990–2001
Exports and Annual Growth Rates in Exports, Rwanda,
1990–2001
Grants Provided to the Government Budget, 1990–2001
Grants as a Share of Nongrant Government Revenues,
Guinea and Senegal, 1990–2001
Grants as a Share of Nongrant Government Revenues,
Rwanda, 1990–2001

Initial Conditions and Baseline Macroeconomic
Assumptions
Assumptions on Public Domestic Debt
Results of the Baseline, Pessimistic, and Optimistic
Scenarios, 2001–16
Inputs for Guinea
Inputs for Rwanda
Inputs for Senegal
Incidence of VAT Reforms Compared with Social
Sector Spending
Incidence and Coverage of Remittances/Private
Transfers, 2001–2002
Indicators of Targeting Performance

xiii

238
239
241
244
318
318
319
319
323
323
324
324
325
325

327
328
330
334
334
335
363
420
423

Tables
2.1
3.1

Debt Sustainability Thresholds and Policy Performance
for IDA14
Comparative Levels of Tax Revenue, Selected Years,
1985–97

39
69


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Public Finance for Poverty Reduction

3.2
4.1
6.1

6A.1
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
7.5
7.6
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
8.6
8.7
8.8
8.9
8.10
8.11
8.12
8.13
8.14
9.1
9.2
9.3

Comparative Composition of Tax Revenue, Selected
Years, 1985–97
Leakage of Public Funds for Education, Uganda, 1991–95
Short- and Long-Term Consistency Matrices
Trends in Paraguay’s Debt, 1991–2000

Marginal Effective Corporate Tax Rates on Domestic
Capital Investment
Tax Burden by Income Decile: Baseline Scenario
Tax Burden by Income Decile: Alternate Scenario
Distribution of Net Income among Income Deciles
Distribution of Gross Income among Deciles: Base
Scenario
Distribution of Gross Income among Deciles: Alternate
Scenario
Correlation between Expenditure and Poverty, by
Department, 2001
Household Access to Social Programs, by Poverty Level,
2001
Targeting of Individual Beneficiaries by Food Assistance,
Health Care, and Education Programs, 2000
Per Capita Transfers to Municipalities, 2001
Municipalities That Did Not Know the Transfer Arrival
Dates
Municipalities Subject to Central Government
Supervision, 2002
Percent of Transfers Used for Current Expenditure, 2002
Leakage for FONCOMUN and Canon Minero Transfers
Beneficiary Households That Received Training/
Information on “Milk” Preparation and Allocation, 2002
VDL Presence of Significant Transfer Delays
Leakage at Transfer Stage 3, from Municipality to
Local Committees
Leakage at Transfer Stage 4, Household Level
Leakage at Transfer Stage 5, Beneficiary Household Level
VDL Leakage at Various Transfer Stages

Scope of Social Protection Programs, 1999
Risk Mitigation and Risk Coping
Social Protection Coverage and Costs, 1998

74
96
181
185
201
210
211
213
214
215
236
237
240
245
247
248
249
251
256
257
259
262
263
265
276
279

281


Contents

9.4
9.5
10.1
10.2
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.6
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.4
11.5
11.6
12.1
12.2
12.3
12.4
12.5
12.6
12.7

Social Protection Incidence and Expenditures, 1998
Social Risk Coverage and Deficiencies
Naples Terms “Two-by-Two” Matrix

Committed Debt Relief under the Enhanced HIPC
Initiative
Assumed Delivery of Traditional and HIPC Debt Relief,
2001–21
Short- and Long-Term Deficit-Debt Consistencies
for Guinea
Short- and Long-Term Deficit-Debt Consistencies
for Rwanda
Short- and Long-Term Deficit-Debt Consistencies
for Senegal
Country Performance for WAEMU Convergence
Criteria, 2005
Recent Economic Performance and Medium-Term
Macroeconomic Framework, 1997–2007
Aggregate Statistics on Consumption Categories
Targeted for Indirect Taxation
Consumption Shares of Comparable Goods by
Income Decile, 1995 and 2004 Surveys
Incidence Analysis for Proposed Tax Reforms, Niamey,
2004 Survey
Benefit Incidence Analysis for Selected Categories of
Public Spending, Niger, 2000
Sampling Distribution of Health Facilities and
Population across Administrative Regions, 1998–99
Sampling Distribution of Educational Facilities and
School-Age Population across Provinces
Distribution of Education and Health Care Facilities
and Resources across Administrative Regions, 1998–99
Funds Transferred to Regional Health Offices, 1999
Transfers of Operational Expenses to the District

Health Offices, 1999
Income Generated by District Health Offices, 1998
and 1999
Main Sources of Revenues in Primary Schools across
Provinces, 1998/2000

xv

282
287
314
321
326
336
337
338
347
350
354
357
359
364
378
378
381
386
387
390
393

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Public Finance for Poverty Reduction

12.8

12A.1
12A.2
12A.3
12A.4
12A.5
12A.6
13.1
13.2
13.3
13.4
13.5
13.6

Exemptions from Paying School Fees and Number of
Children Not Admitted to the First Year of Primary
School Because of Classroom Overcrowding, 1999/2000
Comparison of Social Indicators
Key Findings and Recommendations for the Health Sector
Key Findings and Recommendations for the Education
Sector
Summary of Problems and Solutions Proposed by
Regional Health and Provincial Education Officers
Problems and Solutions Identified at District Health

and Education Offices
Problems and Solutions Identified at Health Centers
and Primary Schools
Decomposition of Determinants of Public Transfers
Performance
Errors of Exclusion and Inclusion in a Proxy MeansTesting Model
Welfare Prediction Matrix
Means-testing Performance under Different Poverty Lines
Geographic Targeting Using Census Data
Geographical Targeting Versus Proxy Means Testing

397

403
404
406
408
409
410
426
430
431
433
435
436


Foreword

Public Finance for Poverty Reduction provides an innovative analysis of

many difficult policy issues plaguing less-developed economies in growing their economies while achieving poverty reduction. It is well worth a
read. It is, in part, a good application of the framework developed by the
late Richard Musgrave, who defined public finance as a field of study concerned with the government’s functions focused on resource allocation,
distribution, and stabilization of an economy. It also is appropriately concerned with administrative practice, and it provides excellent case studies
on some new approaches to improving fiscal, spending, and tax policies
in less-developed economies.
Resource allocation is critical to understanding how public policies affect both the static and the dynamic efficiency of an economy or, in other
words, the best allocation of resources to achieve the highest standard of
living. Distribution is concerned with the support given to the people
who are the least well-off in society, while ensuring that policies are applied equally to those who are similarly well-off. Fiscal stabilization, less
invoked these days with the importance of monetary policy targeted at
inflation, is still critical to policy in a world where deficits and debt can
produce havoc in a government’s ability to raise capital from internation-

xvii


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Public Finance for Poverty Reduction

al markets and to afford program spending without having to increase
taxes to fund it.
Although each of these public sector functions is well defined, tradeoffs are always involved in reaching each. Redistribution of resources
through tax policy or spending programs can have incentive effects that
undermine economic efficiency if people decide to work, save, or invest
less in markets. Efficient tax policies—a head tax being one of them—
could impose heavy burdens on the poor. Tight fiscal policies to avoid
deficits and foreign indebtedness can make it difficult to implement public programs that are needed to improve the economy or support the poor.
Life is never simple for governments, especially those in less-developed

economies where the trade-offs frequently are more difficult to achieve
with limited resources. Moreover, the outcomes can be stark, with high
levels of poverty if successful results are not forthcoming.
Although often it is easy to identify good reasons for public intervention by governments, it is another matter to witness good implementation of public programs—so much so that some people argue that
governments should consider a hands-off approach rather than starting
up ill-designed programs. Thus, it is critical to understand the administrative resources available to governments to implement policy as well as the
incentives for governments to carry out public policies to achieve worthwhile public objectives without being corrupted by poor practices.
The advantage of this book is that it is not restricted to the typical approach used in public finance texts: outlining theoretical ideas and some
econometric knowledge for helping with the application of the ideas. Instead, it provides interesting new approaches to implementing growthoriented and poverty-reducing spending, tax, and fiscal stabilization policies that have been attempted in various countries.
The first chapters in Public Finance are appropriately “theoretical” in reviewing basic concepts, such as fiscal sustainability, revenue design, accountability measures, and tax and benefit analysis. Without focusing too
much on the concepts alone, the chapters provide good discussions of
practical solutions to some of the difficulties faced by governments in
reaching their objectives.
The chapters in Part Two evaluate approaches to policies to stabilize
the economy, reduce poverty, or implement better spending programs in
Paraguay, Mexico, Peru, and Uruguay. Part Three focuses on the poorest
continent—Africa—with case studies of Guinea, Rwanda, Senegal, Niger,


Foreword

xix

and Cape Verde. Several new approaches to implementing public policies
are described in some detail, showing that it also is feasible to apply those
policies in poor countries with a weak institutional environment.
The most useful aspect of these case studies is that they provide helpful ideas for implementing policies rather than just focusing on the problems. Without doubt, transparency and accountability help improve the
application of programs, but some simple approaches to measurement
also make policies more effective. For many government planners in lessdeveloped economies, some ideas in these case studies can be useful for
policy development.

The best part of this book, therefore, is that it offers hope to governments that it is possible to successfully implement public policies focused
on fiscal stabilization, economic growth, and poverty reduction. It is best
to approach this book as one that contributes to our knowledge of how
to make Richard Musgrave’s framework achievable.
Jack M. Mintz
Professor of Business Economics,
J. L. Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto
Visiting Professor, New York University Law School
April 2007



Preface

Public Finance for Poverty Reduction includes a series of papers that were
prepared in the context of a World Bank Institute (WBI) public finance
learning program intended to build capacity in developing countries, with
a special focus on Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa. The book places
a particular emphasis on the fiscal issues encountered by countries that
are in the process of implementing a poverty reduction strategy. To define
the contents of the public finance learning program, numerous consultations were conducted with practitioners in developing countries and with
representatives of the World Bank and the donor community. These consultations identified the areas of interest and the demands for capacity enhancement. The following developing countries were involved in the discussions and/or benefited from the course itself: Benin, Bolivia, Burkina
Faso, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guatemala, Guinea, Honduras, Kenya, Nicaragua,
Paraguay, Senegal, and Zambia. The learning program was prepared in
partnership with the governments of Belgium, France, Germany, and
Spain, among others; and it received support from the University of
Antwerp (Belgium), Complutense University of Madrid (Spain), Harvard
University and Georgia State University (United States), the Institute of
Fiscal Studies (Spain), and the group InWEnt (Germany).

xxi


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Public Finance for Poverty Reduction

The learning program benefited especially from the support of Belgium’s Directorate-General for Development Cooperation. The publication of the book was made possible by support from the Belgian Poverty
Reduction Partnership, a trust fund managed by the Poverty Reduction
and Economic Management Unit (PREM) in the World Bank’s Africa region. The preparation of the case studies from Latin America benefited
from the support of the regional studies program of the Chief Economist’s Office for Latin America and the Caribbean. The case studies for
sub-Saharan Africa were produced as background work for poverty assessments prepared by the World Bank.
The editors would like to thank Ishac Diwan, Robert Ebel, and Vinod
Thomas, under whose direction the Public Finance and Poverty Reduction WBI Program was launched to support countries implementing a
poverty reduction strategy; Paula Donovan, Guillermo Perry, and Sudhir
Shetty for providing their support for work on public spending and
poverty in Latin America and Africa; Jack Mintz for carefully reviewing
each chapter of the book and providing thoughtful comments; Vito Tanzi
for his support and comments; Danny Leipziger for his support during the
finalization of this book at PREM; and José Manuel Gonzalez-Páramo,
from the Board of the European Central Bank, for his contribution to the
analysis on the role of the state in developing countries. The editors are
also grateful to Paul Cartier, Erwin De Wandel, and Harold Vandermeulen
from Belgium’s Directorate-General for Development Cooperation, not
only for making the publication of this book feasible, but more generally
for encouraging us to devote time and resources for capacity building for
government staff and researchers in partner countries.
Finally, this book would not have been possible without the professional editing of Christine Cotting from UpperCase Publication Services and
the services of Stephen McGroarty, Andres Ménèses, and Dina Towbin at
the Office of the Publisher at the World Bank.

Blanca Moreno-Dodson
Quentin Wodon
October 2007


Abbreviations

AIPP
ANEP
AUPI
BIC
BNI
BNR
BPS
CAFOD
CAIF
CIRR
CIT
COD
CPIA
CTAR
CWIQ

Apoyo a Instituciones Públicas y Privadas (Uruguay)
Administración Nacional de Educación Pública
(Uruguay)
Asociación Uruguaya de Protección a la Infancia
bénéfices industriels et commerciaux
basic needs index
Banque Nationale du Rwanda

Banco de Previsión Social (Uruguay)
Catholic Agency for Overseas Development
Centros de Atención a la Infancia y la Familia
(Uruguay)
commercial interest reference rate
corporate income tax
cut-off date
Country Policy and Institutional Assessment
Regional Administration Council (Peru)
Core Welfare Indicators Questionnaire

xxiii


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Public Finance for Poverty Reduction

DEO
DHMT
DHO
DISSE
DSA
EIU
ENIGH
EURODAD
FAIMO
FGT
FONCODES
FONCOMUN

G-8
GDF
GDP
GE
GNP
HIPC
IDA
IDA14
IMF
IMM
IMSS
INAME
INDA
INEI
INJU
ISR
LIC
LSMS
MDGs
MDRI

district education office
district health management team
district health office
Dirección de Seguros Sociales por Enfermedad
(Uruguay)
debt sustainability analysis
Economist Intelligence Unit
Encuesta Nacional de Ingreso-Gasto de los Hogares
European Network for Debt and Development

Food for Work (Cape Verde)
Foster-Greer-Thorbecke
Fondo Nacional de Compensation y Desarollo (Peru)
Fondo de Compensación Municipal
Group of Eight
Global Development Finance
gross domestic product
grant element
gross national product
heavily indebted poor country
International Development Association (U.K.)
the 14th replenishment of the IDA’s resources
International Monetary Fund
Intendencia Municipal de Montevideo
Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social
Instituto Nacional de Menor (Uruguay)
National Institute of Feeding (Uruguay)
Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (Peru)
Instituto Nacional de la Juventud (Uruguay)
Impuesto Sobre la Renta (Mexico)
low-income country
Living Standards Measurement Study
Millennium Development Goals
Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative