Assessing the impact of climate change on drought in tien giang province

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING
HANOI NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF EDUCATION
--------------------------

TRAN VAN THUONG

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ON DROUGHT IN TIEN GIANG PROVINCE

THESIS OF GEOGRAPHY MASTER

HANOI, 2017


MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING
HANOI NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF EDUCATION
--------------------------

TRAN VAN THUONG

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ON DROUGHT IN TIEN GIANG PROVINCE

Specialisation: Physical Geography
Code: 60.44.02.17

THESIS OF GEOGRAPHY MASTER

Supervisor:

Associate Prof. Dao Ngoc Hung

HANOI, 2017


i

DECLARATION
I certify that this thesis is my knowledge during of studying period. The
used data and documents in the study is fully righteous and it is completely
different from all published results in the previous time.
I can be legally responsible for my pledge.
Hanoi, June, 2017
AUTHOR


ii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to express my special thanks to Associate Professor Đào Ngọc
Hùng, who always encourages, help, advises, and give suggestions. Without him, this
achievement would not have occurred. I would also like to thank Professor Nguyễn
Trọng Hiệu for guidance, and kind editing of this thesis. I also appreciate the
knowledge gained through Dr. Đỗ Văn Thanh during GIS and ENVI topics.
I am grateful to the lecturers, the staffs of Geography Faculty, Post-Graduation
Department in the both Hanoi National University of Education and Ho Chi Minh
City University of Education for assistance provided to me.
I am also in the debt of AMA Education Foundation Scholarship, NAGAO
Scholarship, Mr. Peter Mach, Ms. Phương Diễm Hương, Associate Professor Trần
Đức Tuấn, Ms. Ngô Thị Hải Yến, and the family of Associate Professor Nguyễn Minh
Tuệ who have given special help in finance as well as spirit. It has greatly helped me

for collecting database and field-research around my thesis.
This work has many external contributor. The generosity of Mr. Võ Văn Thông
and uncles, aunts at Tien Giang, Long An and National Centre of Meteorology and
Hydrology for providing data which related to my thesis.
My acknowledgement is also paid to my family and friends who always give
me motivation. My parents and foster parents are my beloved persons who I thank
greatly.
Last but not least, my thesis will be unsuccessful unless the members of
Assessment Council support and allow. Many thanks for ideas and recommendations
from member of the Council.
Due to the inadequacy of time and data, here has not been really perfect thesis.
The sympathy and ideas from readers will encourage to enhance the quality of
projects in the future.
AUTHOR


iii

LIST OF FIGURES
Fig 1.1. Administration of Tien Giang province ....................................................... 24
Fig 1.2. Rivers and canals network of Tien Giang province .................................... 28
Fig 2.1. The change in average temperature decade in Tien Giang province during
period 1978 – 2015.................................................................................................... 33
Fig 2.2. The fluctuation of annual average temperature in Tien Giang from 1978 to
2015 ........................................................................................................................... 33
Fig 2.3. The variation in seasonal average temperature in study area from 1978 ... 34
Fig 2.4. The change in mean rainfall decade in Tien Giang province during period
1978 – 2015 ............................................................................................................... 35
Fig 2.5. The fluctuation of annual rainfall in Tien Giang from 1978 to 2015 .......... 35
Fig 2.6. The variation in mean seasonal rainfall in study area from 1978 to 2015... 36

Fig 2.7. Scale and landing time of typhoon during period of 1978 – 2015 in coastal
area from Binh Thuan to Kien Giang province ......................................................... 39
Fig 2.8. Changes in average sea level (a), maximum sea level (b) and minimum sea
level (c) at Vung Tau oceanographical station.......................................................... 40
Fig 2.9. The fluctuation of average water level (a), maximum water level (b) and
minimum water level (c) in Vam Kenh hydrological station ................................... 41
Fig 2.10. Changes in yearly temperature in Tien Giang province ............................ 43
Fig 2.11. Changes in temperature in winter (a), spring (b), summer (c), and autumn
(d) .............................................................................................................................. 44
Fig 2.12. The rate of increasing annual mean temperature in Tien Giang province
under RCP 8.5 scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 ............................................. 45
Fig 2.13. Changes in annual rainfall (%) relative to period of 1986-2005 ............... 46
Fig 2.14. Changes in rainfall in winter (a), spring (b), summer (c), and autumn (d) 47
Fig 2.15. The rate of increasing annual rainfall in Tien Giang province under RCP
4.5 scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 ............................................................... 48
Fig 2.16. The rate of increasing annual rainfall in Tien Giang province under RCP
8.5 scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 ............................................................... 49


iv

Fig 2.17. The rate of inundation under sea level rise scenario100m ....................... 50
Fig 3.1. The frequency of monthly drought in Tien Giang province ........................ 50
Fig 3.2. The probability of drought classifications in study area .............................. 53
Fig 3.3. The probability of drought in dry (a) and rainy (b) season during period of
1978 – 2015 ............................................................................................................... 54
Fig 3.4. The rate of drought classification in study area ........................................... 54
Fig 3.5. Normal Probability Plot of Model (response is RDI) ............................... 56
Fig 3.6. Versus Fits (response is RDI).................................................................... 56
Fig 3.7. The change in yearly drought period of 2016 – 2035, relative to period of

1986 – 2005 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 ................................................................. 57
Fig 3.8. The frequence of annual drought in Tien Giang province under RCP 4.5
scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 ..................................................................... 58
Fig 3.9. The frequence of annual drought in Tien Giang province under RCP 8.5
scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 ..................................................................... 59
Fig 3.10. The frequency of monthly drought period of 2016 – 2035 in Tien Giang
province under RCP 4.5 (a) and RCP 8.5 ................................................................. 60
Fig 3.11. The value of RDI in dry season under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios ... 61
Fig 3.12. The value of RDI in rainy season under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios 62
Fig 3.13. The frequence of drought in dry season in Tien Giang province under RCP
4.5 scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 ............................................................... 63
Fig 3.14. The frequence of drought in dry season in Tien Giang province under RCP
8.5 scenario during period of 2016 – 2035 ............................................................... 64
Fig 3.15. Over flowered at drain 3, in Go Cong Tay district in dry season 2012 .... 65
Fig 3.16. Dredging river and canals .......................................................................... 66
Fig 3.17. Rain water storage tank.............................................................................. 67
Fig 3.19. Dragon fruit................................................................................................ 68
Fig 3.20. The deserted fields during the salty season ............................................... 70
Fig 3.21. Model of flora – rice – fish nexus in freedom (a) and dependent (b) ........ 71


v

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1. RDI classification .................................................................................... 23
Table 2.1. The value and standard error of rainfall at three stations in study area for
decade from 1978 to 2015 ......................................................................................... 37
Table 2.2. The number of typhoons and tropical depressions which effected on sea
region from Binh Thuan to Ca Mau during period of 1978 – 2015 .......................... 37
Table 2.3. The data of typhoon and tropical depression which landed in coastal area

from Binh Thuan to Ca Mau province during period of 1978 – 2015 ...................... 38
Table 2.4. Characteristic of greenhouse gas concentrations scenario ....................... 42
Table 2.5. Sea level rise (cm) relative to period of 1986 – 2005 for scenarios ........ 50
Table 2.6. Inundation in Tien Giang province .......................................................... 51
Table 3.1. The rate of monthly drought classification under scenarios (%) ............. 60
Table 3.2. The consequence among constituents of nexus in study area .................. 69


vi

LIST OF ABBREVIATION
CC

Climate Change

COP

Conference of Parties

ESD

Education for Sustainable Development

GIS

Geographic Information System

HCMC

Ho Chi Minh City

ICSU

International Council for Science

IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change

MNRE

Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment

RCP

Representative Concentration Pathways

RDI

Reconnaissance Drought Index

SLR

Sea level rise

UNCED

United Nations Conference on Environment and
Development

UNDP

United Nations Development Programme

UNEP

United Nations Environment Programme

UNFCCC

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

WCED

World Commission on Environment and Development

WMO

World Meteorological Organization

WRCP

World Climate Research Programme


vii

TABLE OF CONTENTS
DECLARATION ........................................................................................................ i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ......................................................................................... ii

LIST OF FIGURES................................................................................................... iii
LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................v
LIST OF ABBREVIATION ..................................................................................... vi
TABLE OF CONTENTS ......................................................................................... vii
INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................1
1. The motivation for the topic ....................................................................................1
2. Objective and mission .............................................................................................2
2.1. The objective of thesis .....................................................................................2
2.2. The task of thesis ..............................................................................................2
3. Data and limitation ..................................................................................................2
3.1. Data ..................................................................................................................2
3.2. The constraint of thesis ....................................................................................2
4. Perspective and method...........................................................................................3
4.1. Point of view ....................................................................................................3
4.2. Methodology ....................................................................................................4
5. Value of thesis .........................................................................................................8
6. Structure of thesis ....................................................................................................8
CONTENTS ................................................................................................................9
CHAPTER 1. LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................9
1.1. The history of research on climate change and drought ......................................9
1.1.1. In the world ...................................................................................................9


viii

1.1.2. In Vietnam ...................................................................................................13
1.1.3. In study area ................................................................................................15
1.2. Theoretical basis of study...................................................................................17
1.2.1. Weather and climate ....................................................................................17
1.2.2. Climate change and sea level rise ...............................................................18

1.2.3. Drought .......................................................................................................21
1.3. Overview study area ...........................................................................................23
1.3.1. Geographic location ....................................................................................23
1.3.2. Natural conditions .......................................................................................25
1.3.3. The socio – economic in study area ............................................................30
CHAPTER SUMMARY ...........................................................................................32
CHAPTER 2. MANIFESTATION AND SCENARIO OF CLIMATE CHANGE
AND RISING SEA LEVEL IN TIEN GIANG PROVINCE ...................................33
2.1. Manifestations of climate change and sea level rise in Tien Giang province ....33
2.1.1. Temperature ................................................................................................33
2.1.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................34
2.1.3. Super storm .................................................................................................37
2.1.4. Sea and tide level rise ..................................................................................40
2.2. Scenario of climate change and rising sea level in study area ...........................42
2.2.1. Temperature ................................................................................................43
2.2.2. Precipitation ................................................................................................46
2.2.3. Sea level rise ...............................................................................................50
CHAPTER SUMMARY ...........................................................................................51


ix

CHAPTER 3. THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DROUGHT IN TIEN
GIANG PROVINCE .................................................................................................52
3.1. Determining probability of drought and drought severity in study area ............52
3.1.1. Monthly drought during of research period ................................................52
3.1.2. Seasonal drought .........................................................................................53
3.2. The impact of climate change on drought in Tien Giang province ...................55
3.2.1. The correlation between annual RDI and several components of climate..55
3.2.2. Scenario of drought for Tien Giang province .............................................57

3.3. Climate change adaptation solutions ..................................................................65
3.3.1. Construction solutions .................................................................................65
3.3.2. Non-construction solutions .........................................................................67
3.3.3. Educational solutions ..................................................................................72
CHAPTER SUMMARY ...........................................................................................73
CONLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATION ........................................................74
1. Conclusions ...........................................................................................................74
2. Recommendations .................................................................................................75
REFERENCES ..........................................................................................................77
PUBLICATION OF ARTICLES ..............................................................................86


1

INTRODUCTION
1. The motivation for the topic
Climate change has become a global problem of universal interest because of
its influence sphere and effect level on humanity. In recent years, they have become
are more noticeable and serious under the form of drought, water shortage, loss of
biodiversity and so on. The climate change, sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam in
2016 (MNRE, 2016) [4] predicted that the sea level will likely to rise over 75
centimetres in the end of the 21st century by comparison with the period of 1986 –
2005; hence, they will direct influence on deltas, especially the Lower Mekong River
Delta.
Tien Giang province is one of thirteen provinces in Lower Mekong River Delta,
which is covered about 5% areas of the Mekong River basin, and in coastal areas in
Vietnam so there will be several advantages of the geographical location, the wealthy
of water resource from river upstream and the correction of river runoff by Tonlé Sap
Lake. However, there will be also much more difficult from obvious water shortage,
drought and saltwater intrusion, especially the fresh water in dry season and flood in

rainy season by the consequences of using water from the upper river basin, climate
change and sea level rise [79],[80]. The dry season in 2016, Tien Giang province has
been impacted by the historical biggest drought; thus, it has caused fresh water
shortage and the serious effect on agriculture.
Drought is a complex and natural phenomenon mainly caused by low rainfall in
a constant period which is characterized by several properties such as frequency,
intensity and duration (Alley, 1984) [42]. By the impression of climate change and
other reasons on drought, the fresh water of province will not be only shortage, but
be polluted in dry season for years ahead. Fresh water plays vitally importance for
production and social security of Vietnam in general and the agricultural products of
Tien Giang province in particular. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the impact of
climate change on drought in Tien Giang province. Hence, I have chosen this topic
to research on my master’s course.


2

2. Objective and mission
2.1. The objective of thesis
To assess the impact of climate change on drought in Tien Giang province and
suggest solutions adaptation in times of climate change and sea level rise.
2.2. The task of thesis
By the published objective above, the project focus on solving several mission
below:
- Literature review about global warming, climate change and rising sea level
scenario, drought and Tien Giang province.
- Analysing about the changing climate in study area.
- Studying the correlation between several weather condition and drought
- Assessing the effects and putting great many solutions for sensibly using water
resource within global warming context.

3. Data and limitation
3.1. Data
The statistics for research used to analyse manifestations of climate change and
sea level rise in Tien Giang province, includes: temperature, precipitation, humidity,
tide and sea level. They are provided by National and Tien Giang Centre of
Meteorology and Hydrology and Tien Giang Statistical Yearbook.
3.2. The constraint of thesis
- The thesis only projects on Tien Giang province by space.
- In contents the author only concentrate on the manifestation of changing
temperature, rainfall, humidity, tide and sea level, fluctuating typhoon and the
impacts on drought from 1978 to 2015. Then, put forward several solutions for
adapting in climate change and sea level rise context.


3

4. Perspective and method
4.1. Point of view
4.1.1. Synthetic perspective
This is a typical point of view of modern Geography with the crucial role in
guiding sense method and approaching to research objects. Following this viewpoint,
each territory is a unified and fully-constituted entity, also there are several
components having the intimate relationship together. As a result, this study
examined the climate change in Tien Giang province in overall relationship with the
general change of global climate, also with aspects: water resources, bio-systems, and
another environmental resources.
4.1.2. System perspective
Geography is an integrated science, it is open systems, and this gives rise to the
problem of where and how to apply closure. There is a close relationship among
natural and socio-economic components. The major advantage of the systems

perspective is that it helps structure complex relationships in reality and thus makes
them open for drought management under climate change context.
4.1.3. Territorial perspective
A research region always sticks to a concrete space. In each regions are
including not only the internal difference but also the intimate relationship with other
areas about natural conditions and socio-economic characteristics. Hence, this thesis
analysed both climate change in Tien Giang province and specified that the changing
climate in study area is a part of Mekong River Delta and impacted by this
phenomenon in the global scale.
4.1.3. Historical point of view
In general, history records change in the world over time; it examines the past
to inform actions of today and the future. In this thesis, based on this standpoint, the
author studied the fluctuation of climatic factors matches the drought during periods.
As a result, the author proposed decisions of rulers and government and the strategies
and institution of ordinary people coping with life.


4

4.1.4. Sustainable development point of view
Presently, this standpoint is becoming more popular and applied largely in all
of national economic activities, especially in exploiting and using the natural
resources. The concept about sustainable development extracted from World
Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) in 1987 [75] is
“Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present, without
compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”.
To illustrate, when exploiting any territories for sake of profit, the sustainable
development principles have to dominate all activities and policies. The socioeconomic development and human activities in the fact are being able to cause the
rapid exhaustion of the earth’s natural resources. Climate change is one of 15 contents
of ESD of UNESCO, so it is not only grasped thoroughly, but applied to composing

models of developing resources in the province.
4.2. Methodology
4.2.1. Collecting, analysing and integrating documents method
The author referenced many scientific documents, observation and experiment
from a myriad of surely sources, such as: published articles, website of organisations
in the world, textbooks and et cetera which was relative to projecting topic. The
author also linked to original references which scientist used. It plays a crucial part
in doing research because the author will be able to find and explain about the natural
characteristics as well as recognition, an accurate assessment the impact of climate
change on drought in the study area.
4.2.2. Mapping, charting method
This is a useful method for geography because all geographic projects are not
only opened, but closed by map. The study will be more specific, visual and
comprehensive by using maps. Nowadays, this method is more enhanced and more
effected in research by supporting of ENVI and GIS. All maps in my study is
composed by using MapInfo 11.0, ENVI 5.2 and Arc GIS 10.2 software.


5

Besides that, by using chart, the correlation between components and their
fluctuation will be shown over space-time. For example, the temperature change in
the study area will clear during periods, if we prefer showing by charts to using tables.
The charts belong study is created by using Microsoft Excel 2013, Minitab 16.0 and
R-project software.
4.2.3. Field-trip method
This is traditional method and it is used a popular way in Geographical science
general and in physical geography particular. Thanks to using this method, the author
can gain exact and important information about manifestation and impacts of climate
change in study area during the research time, the author got field trips to check

precision of collected data and information because of their diversity and rich.
4.2.4. Mathematical method in geography
Most of climate forecasting in future time and solutions for disaster or
fluctuation of weather, caused by global warming base on mathematical statistics. For
example, Alfaro, Eric J. (2006) [41] used statistical model for prediction of summer
maximum and minimum temperature over the Central and Western United States.
The most development is actually seasonal forecasting of hurricane activity (Landsea
Christopher W. et al (1998 [53]; William M. Gray et al (1994) [73]; Nguyen Van Tuyen
(2007), (2008) [30],[31]). For those projects applied regression method for filter variable
linear.
- Arithmetic mean:
n

X

x
i 1

i

(1)

n

- Standard deviation
n

Var 

 (x

i 1

t

 x )2

n

(2)


6

- Standardizing error


xx
100
x

(3)

1
( xt 1  2 xt0  3xt  4 xt 1 )
10

(4)

In that, 𝑋̅ : arithmetic mean of x values; n is the length of x values series.
- Moving average for 5 years

xt 

- Solving general trend equation for the fit: least-squares regression
Assuming that this is actually how the data (x1; y1), …, (xn; yn) we observe are
generated, then it turns out that we can find the line for which the probability of the
data is highest by solving the following optimization problem:
2

n

S    f (ti )  P(ti )   min

(6)

i 1

We are going to fit a line y = at + b which show the change in weather. Here, x
is called the independent variable or predictor variable, and y is called the dependent
variable or response variable. Therefore, f(ti) = yi; P(ti) = ati + b
Take the place of (6). We get:
n

S   ( yi  ati  b)

2

(7)

i 1

S
S
0
0
S  min while a
; b

We are going to fit a standard system equation below:
n
n
 n 2
a
t

b
t

yi ti


i
 i
 i 1
i 1
i 1
 n
n
a t  nb 
yi



i

i 1
 i 1

(8)

Because t is temporal values, we can separate it in such a way that t = 0.
 n 2 n
a  ti   yi ti
 i 1
i 1

n
nb 
yi


i 1

(9)


7

Sloved (9)
n

b

y

i

i 1

(10)

n
n

a

yt

i i

i 1
n

t
i 1

(11)
2
i

Coefficient of correlation:
n

rxt 

 ( x  x )(t  t )
t

t 1

n

(12)

n

 ( x  x )  (t  t )
2

t 1

t

2

t 1

Rank of the correlation
Correlation

Meaning

± 0.01 ≤ r ≤ ± 0.1

Extremely Low, unmeasurable

± 0.2 ≤ r ≤ ± 0.3

Low

± 0.4 ≤ r ≤ ± 0.5

Average rank

± 0.6 ≤ r ≤ ± 0.7

High

± 0.8 above

Extremely high

4.2.5. Multiple regression Model
The study applied the multiple regression model to demonstrate the relationship
among temperature, rainfall and drought index. The temperature and precipitation
data used cover 1978 to 2015. The explicit formulation of the model was:
y  o  1MT   2 RF

(13)

where, y is the yield of the  Reconnaissance Drought Index, k is the constant
(k = 0, 1, 2…), MT is the value of mean temperature and RF is the value of

precipitation. The model for assessing the impact of climate change on the drought
were used to estimate the regression coefficients in equation (13) by Minitab
software.


8

5. Value of thesis
5.1. Academic meaning
Thesis is not only analysing manifestation of climate change and rising sea level
include: temperature, precipitation, drought, tide and sea level rise, but also setting
up the correlation and assessment the influence of climatic condition on drought in
study area.
5.2. Practical value
Weathering equations which shown the correlation and mapping several
drought scenario in the future. It will be based upon prediction and suggesting
solutions for drought adaptive capacity.
6. Structure of thesis
Beside the introduction, conclusion, list of tables, figures, maps, and charts, the
main thesis contents includes:
Chapter 1. Literature review of assessing the changing climate effect on
drought-salinity and study area
On the one hand, the author presents the historical research about climate
change and drought in Vietnam, study area and in the world more broadly. Besides
that, the study mentions to definition of terms which relate to topic. On the other
hand, the author also shows an overview about natural and socio-economic conditions
at study area.
Chapter 2. Manifestation and scenario of climate change and rising sea level in
Tien Giang province
The author confers the result of study on change in weather components and

forecasts their fluctuation next to future by using scenario and equations.
Chapter 3. The effect of climate change on drought in Tien Giang province
The author discusses about drought with the impact of climate change and sea
level rise on it, then suggest several solutions for adaptive capacity.


9

CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1. LITERATURE REVIEW
1.1. The history of research on climate change and drought
1.1.1. In the world
The suggested determination by French natural philosopher Joseph Fourier
(1824) which the climate on the earth is the heat equilibrium between light heat and
dark heat and this idea was continuously developed by Claude Pouillet (1837). At
about the same time the Swiss ‘naturalist’, Louis Agassiz (1840) put forward the
essential characteristics including misplaced boulders, grooved and polished rocks,
etc., in major part of central Europe and even northerly latitudes more broadly were
the results of glaciated process and the first this proposal was later called the
greenhouse effect. In 1865, the greenhouse effect which shown as water vapour and
other atmospheric gases absorbed Earth’s radiant heat was the first demonstrated by
the Irish physicist John Tyndall. The warming power of excess carbon dioxide (CO2)
was calculated the first in 1896 by Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius. From his
calculations, Arrhenius predicted that a trend of warming would ensue if social
activities enlarged CO2 levels in the atmosphere [57],[59]. However, the research was
disturbed by the reasons that the human causes were less than natural causes and no
one else took up the research topic because scientists at that time felt there were so
many other influences on global climate, from sunspots to ocean circulation, that
minor human influences were thought insignificant in comparison to the mighty
forces of astronomy and geology, so both Arrhenius and Chamberlin turned to other

challenges.
Nevertheless, this issue had already been brought up by ICSU early in the 1980s
with the aim of broadening the analyses of global environmental change and in
particular to emphasise studies of chemical and biological processes as a complement
to the physical aspects of global change that were in the focus of the WRCP.
The autumn in 1987 [75], the report Our Common Future by WECD was about
to be discussed in the General Assembly which opened in New York. It was likely


10

instrumental in bringing the CC issue to attention. In the end 1980s, the global
warming had been continued by the significantly temperature rise.
Over years in the end of the 20th century and the first decades of 21st century,
most of researches on climate change related on political and social events in the
world. Their critical level was shown by establishing of crucial international
agreement, for examples: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC), Kyoto Protocol, and Copenhagen Accord in recently years. Climate
change research scale as well as its achievements have been recognized through the
projects of IPCC up to now [24].
In the 1988, IPCC was established via United Nations Environment Programme
— UNEP of World Meteorological Organization – WMO. In September 1988 the
British Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, in a talk at the Royal Society, emphasised
that the issue of human-induced climate change, as a threat to mankind, would have
to be taken seriously [43]. In 1990, the theory climate change was projected by IPCC,
include: global warming, gas house, greenhouse effect, sea level rise…, and they were
become a scientific climate change.
The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED),
also known as the Rio de Janeiro Earth Summit, Rio Summit, Rio Conference, and
Earth Summit (Portuguese: ECO92), was a major United Nations conference held in

Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14 June 1992 [72] ; Conference of Parties (from COP1 to
COP21), etc.
The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change, which commits its Parties by setting
internationally binding emission reduction targets. It was adopted in Kyoto, Japan,
on 11 December 1997 and entered into force on 16 February 2005. There are currently
192 parties (Canada withdrew effective December 2012) [83] to the Protocol. The
Kyoto Protocol allows for greenhouse gas emission reductions to be carried out in
projects implemented in other countries. These projects can be carried out through
the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI). These


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“project-based” mechanisms allow Parties to the Kyoto Protocol to implement
emission reduction projects in other countries in exchange for credits which can be
used towards achieving the Kyoto target. Under Kyoto, industrialised nations pledged
to cut their yearly emissions of carbon, as measured in six greenhouse gases, by
varying amounts, averaging 5.2%, by 2012 as compared to 1990.
According to the report “The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing
Countries: A Comparative Analysis” was published in the first months 2007 [73]:
approximately 0.3% (194,000 km2) of the territory of the 84 developing countries
would be impacted by a 1-meter SLR. Though this remains relatively small in
percentage terms, approximately 56 million people (or 1.28% of the population) of
these countries would be impacted under a 1m SLR scenario. This would increase to
89 million people for 2m SLR (2.03%), and 245 million people (5.57%) for 5m SLR.
The impact of SLR on GDP is slightly larger than the impact on population, because
GDP per capita is generally above average for coastal populations and cities.
Wetlands would experience significant impact even with a 1m SLR. Up to 7.3% of
wetlands in the 84 countries would be impacted by a 5m SLR.

It is true that researching on climate change and impacts for suggesting
adaptation solutions is significant increasing publications nowadays. However,
assessing the impact of climate change on drought was not mentioned clearly into
reports before 2009; they almost concentrated the impacts on flood caused by rising
sea level until after in 2010. For examples, the first Turn Down the Heat (2013) [74]
report found that projections of global warming, sea-level rise, tropical cyclone
intensity, aridity, saltwater intrusion and drought were expected to be felt
disproportionately in the developing countries around the equatorial regions relative
to the countries at higher latitudes. This report extended this previous analysis by
focusing on the risks of climate change to development in three critical regions of the
world: Sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia and South Asia.
At the same time that sea levels was rising, climate change was expected to
influence the pattern of rainfall and drought [48]. Wuebbles et al. (2014) [78] ran 40


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climate models and found that they all gave common predictions for the future:
warming of the atmosphere and soil, lower relative humidity across the United States,
and an increase in the duration, frequency, and intensity of droughts. Murray, Foster,
and Prentice (2012) [58] ran several climate models, and they all predicted that in this
century, climate change and population growth will result in increased global water
stress. Sheffield and Wood (2008) [63] predicted that there will be a doubling in the
frequency of droughts lasting 4 to 6 months and a three-fold increase in the frequency
of droughts lasting longer than a year.
In 2015 COP21, also known as the 2015 Paris Climate Conference [83], agreed
and decided that reaffirm the goal of limiting global temperature increase well below
2 degrees Celsius, while urging efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees and
extended the current goal of mobilizing $100 billion a year in support by 2020
through 2025;

There are several publications on climate change in Southeast Asia as: Manton
et al (2001) [54] detected the trend of extreme daily rainfall in Southeast Asia and the
South Pacific for the period 1961 – 1998. Satterthwaite (2009) [62], discussed how
in the much-needed planning for global emissions reduction, provision must be made
to allow low-income, low-consumption households with GHG emissions per person
below the global “fair share” level to increase their consumption. CGIAR Research
Centre in Southeast Asia (2016), [44] conducted a first-hand observation and
assessment of the degree and extent of the drought and salinity intrusion crisis in the
MRD.
In the study of Mekong River Delta, there are many projects published by the
Mekong River Commission [55], an organisation was established on 5 April 1995
with the signing of the Agreement on the Cooperation for the Sustainable
Development of the Mekong River Basin that works directly with the governments
of Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam on their common specific interests.


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1.1.2. In Vietnam
The studies on climate change in Vietnam have been published from 1990s in
the previous century [12]. Nguyen Duc Ngu and Nguyen Trong Hieu were pioneer in
this field. On June, 1991, for preparing to join Rio Conference in Brazil, Nguyen Duc
Ngu, Trinh Van Thu, Nguyen Trong Hieu and Vu Van Tuan researched and put out
their report, named “Climate change and its impact on Vietnam”. However, this
issues was really passionate by scientist until the following 2000 [11],[13],[14],[22],
[24],[46]. In December, 2nd, 2008, the prime minister approved the national target
program on response to climate change, this is the main reason why most of the
project related to changing climate developed from 2008 up to now [6],[71]. For
examples: “Climate change” [13] supplied over 300 global warming terms; “Climate
change, sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam” [2],[3],[4]; “The study climate change

effects on natural conditions, resources and suggesting the strategic solutions for
preventing lightening and adapting to serve the sustainable development of socioeconomic in Vietnam” [24] - this was the first national climate change project [19];
“Climate change and impacts on Vietnam” [25] and the instruction manual
“Assessment of climate change impacts and making adaptation measures” [36] were
the huge learning synthetic projects for modern global warming science in Vietnam.
Apart from traditional trend, Vietnamese scientists are quickly approaching the
achievements of using information technology in conducting research. In particular,
Nguyen Xuan Lam (2013) [10] and his project “Application of remote sensing
technology in overseeing, warning climate change impacts, preventing and disaster
risk reduction”. In addition, they are being attached special important to impact of
climate change on ocean and islands, such as: Assessment of climate change impacts
on some Vietnamese typical island group and suggest to adaptation measures [1],
Composing extremism weather scenario period 2015-2030 for Vietnamese Eastern
Sea by using climate change scenario in Kakushin Project [5].
By trend of climate change and water resources, there was a project “Impact of
climate change on Vietnamese water resources” by Tran Thanh Xuan in 2011 [34].


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It introduced basing-information about water resources, climate change, its impact
and water needs in Vietnam.
In addition, there is a number of other works may be mentioned, which were
performed in some regions of the country and certainly contributed to the overall
development of the study of climate change, includes: Le Sam [17],[18] the saline
water intrusion in the Mekong Delta in the dry season; Tran Hong Thai (2013) [23],
The study of climate change impacts on water resources changing in Mekong Delta,
Vu Van Phai (2013) [15], Accessing research of fluctuating coastal zone in South of
Vietnam by the impact of climate change and sea level rise and so on.
Under historical and political perspective on climate change, include: Le Anh

Tuan (2009) [30] for an overview of climate change research and adaptation activities
in Southern Vietnam, and Phan Van Tan for Climate change in Vietnam – several
result, challenge and opportunity within international cooperation and integration
[22].
For research on climate change and drought, include: Le Sam and his projects
[17],[18] in Me Kong River Delta in dry season; Nguyen Dang Tin [26],[27]
evaluated the probability of meteorological drought occurrence and characteristics by
using two indices and two modules in the forecasting model for the Mekong River;
and Tran Van Ty [33] assessed the current status of meteorological droughts, and to
assess impacts of climate change on meteorological drought and mapped for the
whole Mekong Delta of Vietnam as well as thus potential drought areas were
identified.
To some extent, they have no mentioned several scenario which have been
building for the provinces and localities by scientists. These study also gradually go
deep into the physical nature and the evidences of climate change. The results of these
researches illustrate that the climate in Vietnam has made some clear signs of
changing.