Mối quan hệ giữa kiều hối, phát triển tài chính và tăng trưởng

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BO GIAO DUC VA DAO TAO
TRUoNG DAI
HOC
KINH TE TP. HCM
•
•

NGUYEN VAN TUYEN

MOl QUAN H:f: GIUA KIEU HOI,
PilAT TRIEN TAl CHINH vA TANG TRUONG
Chuyen nganh: Tai chinh- Ngan hang
Ma s6: 60340201

LUAN
VAN THAC
Si KINH TE
•
•
NGUdi HUONG DAN KHOA HQC:
GIAO SV TRAN NGQC THO

TP. H6 Chi Minh -Nam 2013

rf.J


LOICAMDOAN
Toi xin cam doan r~ng lu~n van "M6i quan h~ gifra kiSu h6i, phat triSn
tai chinh Va tang truemg" la cong trinh nghien Cllu CUa rieng toi.
Dfr

li~u

duqc sir d\}ng trong

lu~n

van la trung thlJC duqc thu

th~p

tir

nhfrng ngu6n dang tin c~y va cac kSt qua trinh bay trong Iu~n van chua duqc
cong b6 ~i b&t kY cong trinh nghien CUu nao tru6c day. NSu phat hi~n c6 b&t
Icy gian l~n nao, toi xin chju toan b9 trach nhi~m tru6c H()i d6ng.

TP.HCM, thang 10 nam 2013
Tac gia luin van

l

t


MUCLUC
•
•
Trang ph\1 bia
LOi cam doan

Danh ml,lc Cl,lm tir viSt t~t
Danh m\lc cac bang, bi€u
Danh ml,lC cac hinh ve, d6 thi
Tom t~t ................................................................................. Trang 1
1. Gi&i thi~u ........................................................................... Trang 2
2. T6ng quan cac kSt qua nghien CUu tru&c day .................................. Trang 14
3. Phuong phap nghien c(ru ......................................................... Trang 27
3.1 Dfr li~u .......................................................................... Trang 27
3 .2 Phuong phap nghien c(ru ..................................................... Trang 3 7
4. Nc)i dung va cac kSt qua nghien c(ru ............................................. Trang 42
5. KSt lu~n .............................................................................. Trang 54
Tai

li~u

tham khao


DANH MUC
CUM
TUVIET TAT

•
•
Ten ttiy dti ti~ng Anh

Cl}m vi~t tit

'

Ten diy dti ti~ng Vi~t

Autoregressive Distributed

Phuong phap phan phoi tr~ tv'

Lag

h6iquy

Balance of Payment Statistics
Yearbook

Nien giam thong ke can can
thanh tmin

CPI

Consumer Price Index

Chi so gia tieu dung

FDI

Foreign Direct Investment

BAu tu tzvc ti€p nu6c ngoai

FEM

Fixed Effects Model

Mo hinh hi~u (rng cb dinh

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

Tfing san phfrm quoc n()i

GMM

Generalized Method of
Moments

Phuong phap u6c luQ'Ilg
GMM

IMF

International Monetary Fund

Quy tien t~ quoc te

ODA

Official Development
Assistance

H6 trq phat tri€n chinh thuc

OLS

Ordinary Least Squares

Phuong phap binh phuong
nho nhAt

PFMOLS

Panel Fully Modified
Ordinary Least Squares

Phuong phap binh phuong
nho nhftt v6i dfr li~u bang
duqc hi~u chinh hofm toan

REM

Random Effects Model

Mo hinh hi~u (rng ng~u nhien

ARDL

BOPSY

J

SGMM

System Generalized Method of Phuong phap u6c luQllg
Moments
SGMM


~l}m vi~t tit

Ten diy dii ti~ng Anh

Ten diy dii ti~ng Vi~t

UNCTAD

United Nations Conference on
Trade and Development

Di~n dan thuong m~i va phat

tri~n cua Lien Hi~p Qu6c

I

Var Error Correction Model

Mo hinh vector hi~u chinh sai
'
so

WB

World Bank

Ngan hang the giai

WDI

World Development Indicators

Cac chi so phat trien the gi6i

VECM

i

.
1


DANH MVC

cAc BANG, BIEU

Bang 1.1: Nhfrng u6e lm;mg va dv dmin eho dong ehay kiSu h6i vao eae qu6e
gia dang phat triSn

Bang 2.1: Bang tom luge eae nghien diu diSn hinh tru6e day vS dS tai kiSu h6i
Bang 3.1: Bang tom luge vS eae biSn nghien e(ru
Bang 3.2: Bang th6ng ke tom t~t eae biSn hBi quy ehinh
Bang 4.1: KSt qua mo hinh hBi quy tae d()ng eua kiSu h6i va tang truOn.g
Bang 4.2: HBi quy v&i Deposits la biSn d~i di~n eho phat triSn tai ehinh
Bang 4.3: HBi quy v6i Loans la biSn d~i di~n eho phat triSn tai ehinh
Bang 4.4: HBi quy v6i Credit la biSn d~i di~n eho phat triSn tai ehinh
Bang 4.5: HBi quy v6i M2 la biSn d~i di~n eho phat triSn tai ehinh


DANH MVC

cAc HiNH vE, DO THJ

ffinh 1.1: Top 10 qu6c gia dang phat triSn c6 ngu6n kiSu h6i 16n nhftt
ffinh 1.2: Top 10 qu6c gia c6 cy I~ kiSu h6i trong GDP 16n nhftt
ffinh 1.3: KiSu h6i va cac ngu6n v6n khac chay vao cac nu6c dang phat
trien


1

Tom tit (Abstract)

KiSu hBi dong vai tro ngay cang quan tr<;mg trong t6ng sB cac dong vBn
qu6c ts nhung m6i quan h~ giua kisu hBi va tang tru6ng v~n chua dugc nghien

Clru mmvS phat tri~n cua linh V\fC tai chinh dja phuang anh hu6ng dSn kha nang t~n d\lng
kiSu hBi cua mctru la tim hi~u xem phat tri~n tai chinh anh hu6ng dSn sv tac d()ng cua kiSu hBi
dSn tang tru6ng nhu thS nao. Lu~ van sir d\lng dfr li~u m&i dugc c~p nh~t cua
40 qu6c gia dang phat tri~n co thu nh~p th~p va trung binh, kSt qua cho th~y r~ng
kiSu hBi thuc dAy tang tru6ng

o nhiing quBc gia co h~ thBng tai chinh kern phat

tri~n thong qua vi~c cung c~p m
gia do vugt qua nhfrng kho khan thanh khoan. Cac quBc gia dang phat tri~n
thuemg g~p kho khan trong vi~c vay vBn, do do kiSu hBi co th~ gop phfin b6 sung
cho S\1' thiSu phat tri~n tai chinh va thuc dAy tang tru6ng. MBi quan h~ nay ki~m
soat tinh nSGMM (System Generalized Method of Moments), va mBi quan h~ nay cling
khong ph\1 thu()c vao bi~n phap phat tri~n tai chinh C\1 th~ dugc sir d1;1ng. Nghien
f

ctru ciing dua ra nhfrng d~n chilng chilng minh r~ng kiSu hBi la mrna co th~ thuc dAy tang tru6ng, d~c bi~t la khi rna llnh V\fC tai chinh v~n chua
th~ dap ilng duqc nhu cfiu cua nguai dan.

Tir khoa: KiSu hBi, phat tri~n tai chinh va tang tru6ng.


2

1. Gi6i

thi~u

(Introduction)

KiSu h6i cua nhiing ngum di cu qu6c tS chinh hi ngu6n tai chinh vi~n trq
tir ben ngoai 16n nh&t d6i v6i cac qu6c gia dang phat tri@n, chi d{rng sau D~u tu
tl1)'c tiSp nu6c ngoai (FDI). Theo u6c tinh cua Ngan hang ThS gi6i, kiSu h6i d~t
479

tY USD trong nam 2011, trong d6 381 tY USD duqc chuy@n sang cac nu6c

dang phat tri@n, tuong {rng v6i khoang 215 tri~u lao d<)ng di cu tren toan thS gi6i.
Nam 2012, luqng kiSu hfii chinh thuc d6 vao cac nu6c dang phat tri@n u6c tinh
d~t 406

cy

USD, tang khoang 6.56% so v6i nam 2011. Dong kiSu h6i nay

VQng se tang 8% trong nam 2013, 10% trong nam 2014 va

d~t

534

kY

cy do trong

nam 20 15 (theo Migration and Development Brief 19 - The World Bank
20/1112012).
Cac nu6c dang phat tri@n hi~n d{rng d~u vS ngu6n kiSu h6i chay vao, gBm
nhiing qu6c gia nhu:

An DQ, Trung Qu6c, Philippines, Mexico, Nigeria, ... theo

s6 li~u th6ng ke u6c tinh trong nam 20 12 cua World Bank.

f


- -

-

.

-

.

- ------------

3

{US$ billion~ 2012e)
70

•

66

24

21

18

14

14
9

7

Hinh 1.1 Top 10 qu6c gia dang phat triSn c6 nguBn kiSu h6i 16n nhit
(Ngu6n: Migration and Development Brief 19- The World Bank 20111/2012)

•
D6i v&i mc;>t s6 nu&c tiSp nh~, kiSu h6i c6 thS chiSm dSn m9t ph~n ba
GDP cua hQ. Cac nu&c d(rng d~u vS ti I~ kiSu h6i trong GDP bao g6m cac nSn
kinh tS nho nhu Tajikistan (47%), Liberia (31 %), Kyrgyz Republic (29%), va
Lesotho (27%) theo s6 li~u thdng ke vao nam 2011.
I

,

I

I

I
I

I

I

I
I
I

I

thong thuoog kiSu h6i chiSm khoang hon 10% GDP.

0

nhiing qudc gia khac,


4

{%of GDP, 2011)

47

•

31

29

27

23

22

21

21
18

18

Hinh 1.2 Top 10 qu6c gia co t)r 1~ kiSu hBi trong GDP l&n nhfit
(Ngu6n: Migration and Development Brief 19- The World Bank 20/11/2012)
VS m~t ly thuySt, kiSu hBi giup tang v6n tich lily trong nu6c, tir do gop

ph~n thuc d~y tang tru6ng kinh tS thong qua m9t s6 kenh nhu:
~ Trvc tiSp tac d9ng dSn ngu6n v6n tich lily trong nu6c
~ Giam chi phi v6n vi cung quy cho vay tang len tu ngu6n kiSu hBi

~ Gop ph~n

fm

djnh vi mo trong nu6c do kiSu hBi dugc sir d\lllg nhu m9t

ph~n cua v6n d~u tu trong nu6c, giam thiSu hfit 6n kinh tS do thiSu h\lt v6n
d~u tu.


5

M~c du cim quan trQng ngay cang gia tang cua kiSu h6i trong tfmg cac

dong v6n qu6c ts nhung m6i quan h~ giua kiSu h6i va tang truemg kinh ts vfin
chua dugc nghien cl:ru thvc nghi~m m()t each ro rang va d~y du. Trong khi d6 thi
m6i quan h~ giiia tang truemg va cac ngudn v6n nu6c ngoai khac chimg h1;1n nhu
d~u tu tflJC tiSp nu6c ngoai (FDI) hay cac dong tiSn h6 trg chinh thuc (Official

Flows) thi l1;1i dugc nghien cl:ru vo cung sau r()ng. Hon niia, kiSu h6i ciing dugc
sir d1,mg chu ySu cho tieu dung, nen ciing it nhiSu c6 tac d()ng dSn tang truemg
trong dai h1;1n.
600

US$ billion

Remittances

500
400
300
200
100

o~Nm~~~~~mO~Nm~~~~~mo~~--­

mmmmmmmmmmoooooooooo~~Nm~IJ)
mmmmmmmmmmoooooooooooo~~~~
~~~~~~~~~.-
Sources: World Develooment Indicators and World Bank DECPG estimates

•

N

N N

N

Hinh 1.3 KiSu h6i va cac ngu6n v6n khac chay vao cac nu6c dang phat tri@n
(Ngudn: Migration and Development Brief 19- The World Bank 20111/2012)
KiSu h6i la m()t trong nhiing ngu6n thu ngo1;1i t~ 6n dinh trong nhiing nam
qua, b&t ch&p tinh hinh tai chinh, kinh tS thS gi6i. Ludng v6n d~u tu thuemg c6
xu huang chay vao nSn kinh tS dang c6 d&u hi~u khai sAc va chay ra khi nSn


6

kinh t~ suy thmii nhung dong kiSu h6i thi se khong c6 nhiSu bi~n d()ng nhu
nhiing dong v6n khac.
Dva vao hinh ve 1.3

a tren ta c6 thS th~y r~ng kiSu h6i trong giai do~n

1998- 2001lien 1\lc tang khi rna luBng vBn d~u tutu nhan thao lui do anh huang
cua CUQC khung hoang tai chinh tiSn t~ Chau A. Xu huang nay ti~p 1\IC tang ngay
ca khi cac dong v6n duqc xem la kha 6n djnh khac nhu FDI va ODA giam trong
giai do~n 2000 - 2003, va kiSu h6i cung chi giam r~t nhy

a giai ao~n 2006 -

2009 trong khi hai dong v6n con l~i c6 Sl,l Sl,lt giam r~t dang kS bm tac d()ng cua
cu()c khung hoang kinh t~ th~ gi6i. Do v~y, kiSu h6i duqc ngm1i nh~ sir dl,lng
cho chi tieu cling se mang tinh it bi~n d()ng hon so v6i nhiing khoan lqi nhu~n
thu duqc tir d~u tu. D6i v6i nhiing qu6c gia c6 thu nh~p th~p thi diSu nay l~i
cang c6

y nghia vi nhiSu gia dinh sinh s6ng dva vao nguBn ki@u h6i giri v@ tir

nu6c ngoai, cu()c s6ng cua hQ v6i muc s6ng c6 thS n6i la ngheo kh6 va chi du
trang trai cho nhiing nhu c~u thi~t y~u. Kinh t~ kh6 khan

anhiing nu6c nay cang

Ia d()ng lvc m~nh me cho nguai dan xu~t khfru lao d()ng va chuySn ti@n v@ qu6c
gia nuoi s6ng gia dinh.
Ngay ca khi ki@u hBi mang

y nghia la chuy@n ti@n danh nghia d@ che d~y

cho khoan d~u tu, ki@u h6i cling it chju bi~n d()ng th~t thuang cua dong d~u tu
gian ti~p vao thi truang m6i n6i. Ki@u dan vftn c6 xu hu6ng d~u tu vS que huong
du kinh t~ trong nu6c c6 thS la dang g~p kh6 khan. V 6i d~c tinh tuong d6i 6n
djnh cua dong ki@u h6i, cac n@n kinh t~ m6i n6i c6 di@u ki~n sir dl,lng ki@u h6i

nhu la m()t khoan th~ ch~p d6i v6i cac khoan vay tren thi truang v6n qu6c t~
theo nhiing di@u khoan vay thu~n lqi hon so v6i truang hqp cac qu6c gia khong
thu hut duqc ki@u h6i.


7

DS tai nghien Clru nay kS thua va phat triSn nhfrng nghien Clru tru6c do vS
dS tai kiSu hBi tac d<)ng dSn tang truang kinh tS. Tuy nhien, thong qua vi~c tiSn
hanh nghien ctru thvc nghi~m dl,la tren nhfrng s6 li~u dang tin c~y thu th~p dugc,
bai nghien ctru k)r vQng se chi ra dugc m6i quan h~ nay Ia d6ng biSn hay nghjch
biSn m9t each ro rang han, d6ng thm cung thS hi~n dugc rftng phat triSn tai chinh
co anh huang dSn Sl,l tac d<)ng cua kiSu hBi dBi v6i tang truang.

v6i ffi\lC tieu

dong gop phan nao cong sue vao vi~c nghien Clru tac d<)ng cua kiSu hBi dBi v6i
tang truang kinh tS, bai nghien CUu nay da c6 g~ng bam sat vao nhiing n9i dung
ca ban da dugc thvc hi~n b&i cac tac gia nghien Clru tru6c do, d6ng thai thS hi~n

huang di rieng cua minh, cv thS thong qua 2 diSm chinh nhu sau:
Thu nhdt Ia sir dvng ngu6n du li~u vS kiSu hBi dugc c~p nh~t m6i nh~t cua
40 m~u quBc gia d~i di~n tren cac trang di~n tir uy tin 16n nhu WB, UNCTAD.

Cac quBc gia d~i di~n dugc Iva chQn m9t each ng~u nhien tu nhom cac quBc gia
dang phat triSn co thu nh~p th~p va trung binh. D6ng thai cac qu6c gia nay phai
dap trng diSu ki~n co day du du li~u nh~t dBi v6i cac biSn can nghien Clru trong
mo hinh. Vi~c thiSu du li~u cua nhfrng nghien Clru tru6c day da dugc cai thi~n
dang kS. Do do, kSt qua nghien cfru ciing dang tin c~y han va dugc c~p nh~t m6i
han.

Thu hai Ia phan tich vi~c co hay khong vai tro cua kiSu hBi trong vi~c thuc

d&y tang truang kinh tS. D~c bi~t han, bftng nghien Clru thvc nghi~m va dua biSn
tuang tac vao trong mo hinh, toi mu6n kiSm djnh xem rftng phat triSn tai chinh

cua m9t qu6c gia anh huang dSn Sl,l tac d<)ng cua kiSu hBi dSn tang truang cua
qu6c gia do nhu thS nao. Noi m9t each khac, bai nghien cuu mu6n tim xem each
thuc rna S\f phat triSn tai chinh dja phuang anh huang dSn kha nang t~n dvng
kisu h6i cua m9t qu6c gia.


8

C6 2 quan diSm khac nhau khi giai thich vS kiSu h6i: tich ClJC va tieu ClJC
(Englama, 2009):
Theo quan diSm tich cgc, kiSu h6i c6 tac d(>ng tich ClJC len qu6c gia tiSp
nh~n bai vi no gop phftn xoa doi giam ngheo, thuc d:iy tang truang kinh ts va ~o

diSu ki~n dS giam nq nu&c ngoai cling nhu giam tham hvt ngan sach cua nSn
kinh tS.
M~c khac theo quan diSm tieu ClJC, kiSu h6i thu(mg duqc sir dvng phftn
}an

cho tieu dung vai ngan sach khfmg lB, lam gia tang SlJ ph\1 thUQC CUa CaC

thanh vien trong gia dinh vao kiSu h6i vi h<;> khong lam gi ca rna chi

y l:;ti

vao

ngu6n vi~n trq nay. KiSu h6i cling duqc su dvng vao nhfrng khoan dftu tu th1,!C S\!
khong hi~u qua nhu dftu tu vao nha

a.

KiSu h6i cling c6 thS t:;to ra S\! bftt binh

d~ng trong thu nh~p. Do v~y, kiSu h6i khong nhfrng khong thuc d:iy tang truang

kinh tS rna con gay ra S\! bftt binh d~ng thu nh~p va SlJ 1~ thu(>c cua cac qu6c gia
tiSp nh~n kiSu h6i.
C6 2 phuong thuc dS chuySn kiSu h6i vS nu&c: kenh chinh thuc va kenh
khong chinh thuc (Englama, 2009). Ca 2 kenh nay dSu dang t6n ~i song song
v&i nhau, nhung kenh chinh thuc duqc danh gia cao hon b&i vi n6 h6 trq nSn
kinh tS cua nu&c nh~n kiSu h6i du&i hinh thuc dl! trfr ngo:;ti h6i. Cac giao dich
kiSu h6i theo kenh chinh thuc duqc th1,!c hi~n thong qua h~ th6ng tai chinh chinh
quy, ths hi~n tren chll'ng

ru ngan hang ro rang ho~c thong qua cac kenh chinh

quy khac nhu buu di~n, hay cac nha khai thac v~n chuySn tiSn t~. Tru&c day,
vi~c luu chuySn kiSu h6i thong qua buu di~n khong duqc an toan va nhirng

ngum di cu cling ng:;ti gui kiSu h6i vS nu&c vi t6n rftt nhiSu thai gian, nguy hiSm.
Tuy nhien, hi~n nay v&i SlJ phat triSn cua nganh ngan hang, chi cftn t6n vai giay
bAng phuong thuc chuySn rir tai khoan sang tai khoan, an toan va dang tin c~y,


9

da thuc diy SlJ ra dai va pha.t triSn cua cac trung gian tai chinh cling nhu cac gia
dinh nh~n kiSu h6i s~n sang huemg l:mg cac dich V\1 tai chinh va s~n long tra
thanh khach hang cua cac ngan hang.
Vi~c chuySn tiSn vS nu6c thong qua cac d~i ly (agents), nguai than va ben

thu ba chu khong phai la cac trung gian tai chinh ho~t dqng chinh quy nhu da n6i

a tren duqc gQi la kenh khong chinh thuc.

Tru6c day, qua trinh chuySn tiSn

thuang t6n kern kha nhiSu thai gian va chi phi, do v~y ds dap l:mg nhu c~u gui
tiSn vS nu6c ngay l~p

rue thi nhfrng nguai di

cu thuang gill thong qua d~i ly

ho~c nguai than. Tuy nhien, nhfrng kenh nay thuang xay ra tinh tr~ng tr()m c~p

va gian I~n, d~n dSn vi~c nhfrng gia dinh dang mong cha khoan kiSu h6i nay
khong nh~ duqc tiSn. H~n chS 16n nhftt cua kenh nay la khong c6 SlJ can thi~p
cua chinh phu nuac nh~n kiSu h6i trong qua trinh chuySn giao kiSu h6i va dS cho
quy ngo~i t~ nay rai vao tay cac d~i ly. Do v~y dg tni ngo~i hBi cua qu6c gia
nh~n kiSu h6i khong duqc tang len thong qua kenh nay.
M~c du c6 nhfrng h~ chS nhu v~y, nhung kenh khong chinh thuc nay v~n

duqc t~ng lap lao d()ng ph6 thong sir dvng r()ng rai vi chi phi thftp hon va khong
phai trai qua cac thu 1\}c ch1Ing tir phuc t~p. B~c lao d()ng phf> thong d~i da s6 Ia

rftt ng~i cac thu t\}c c6 lien quan nhiSu dSn chl:mg tir, do v~y hQ khong ch<;>n ngan
hang dS chuySn tiSn. Day thgc sg la m()t thach thuc 16n cho cac ngan hang trung
uang hay ngan hang nha nu6c cua nu6c nh~n kiSu hBi dS c6 thS diy m~nh kiSu

hBi va thuc diy linh vgc tai chinh cua dftt nu6c.
KiSu h6i chay vao cac nu6c dang phat triSn tang len dang kS trong hai
th~p kY vira qua va theo dg bao tir gia dSn nam 20 1s se lien 1\lc tang.


10

$billions
All developing countries
East Asia and Pacific
Europe and Central Asia
latin America and Caribbean
Middle-East and North Africa
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
lDCs (UN-dassification)
countries
Middle income
High income
World
Low~income

2009

2010

2011

2012e

2013f

2014f

2015f

316

341
95
37
58
41

381
106
41

406

534

136

62

64

152
58
84

75

82

28

29

43
97
31

47
109
31

438
123
45
68
50
118
33

482

85
37
57
34

23
21
294
119

25
23
318
121
462

27
28
353
133
513

30
32
374
128

33

36
402
133

37
41

534

570

11.7%
12.3%
13.1%
7.3%
6.3%

6.5%
7.2%
·0.9%
2.9%
8.4%
12.5%
0.0%

7.9%

-6.7%

8.0%

10.9%
0.0%
0.9%
20.8%
9.5%
4.9%

1.4%
3.4%
·5.3%
·10.8%
-6.5%

4.5%
9.7%
7.9%
1.7%
6.3%

435

114
41

51
75
53

56

130

144
39

36

441
141
623

42
47
487
151
685

Growth rate (%)

All developing countries
East Asia and Paclflc
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and Caribbean
Middle-East and North Africa
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
lDCs (UN-dassification)
countries
Middle income
High income

low~income

World

-4.8%
1.8%
·19.4%
·11.8%
-6.2%
4.8%

17.7%
6.8%

11.1%
17.8%
11.2%

10.9%
16.0%
5.8%
9.2%
·3.5%
11.0%. 3.9%

8.2%

9.6%
7.6%
5.5%

8.7%
6.2%

10.4%
11.9%
7.6%
3.8%
6.9%

10.1%
10.5%
14.8%
10.3%
6.2%
9.9%
8.7%

10.7%
11.3%
13.1%
11.0%
6.8%
11.0%

11.9%
14.5%
9.7%

12.4%

14.1%
10.4%
7.1%
9.9%

6.5%

9.3%

9.2%

Bang 1.1 Nhfrng u6c lugng va dt;I' doan cho dong chay kiSu hBi vao cac
quae gia dang phat triSn
(Ngu6n: Migration and Development Brief 19- The World Bank 20111/2012)


11

Vi nguai dan

a nhiing qu6c gia dang phat triSn thi ngheo va dS co dugc

m9t cong vi~c lam t6t hon, thu nh~p cao hon, nhiing nguai lao d9ng khong co
tay nghS co xu hu6ng di cu sang cac nSn kinh tS phat triSn v6i mvc dich kiSm
dugc nhiSu tiSn hon va gui vS cho gia dinh dS trang trai cho nhu cftu thiSt ySu
cua CUQC s6ng. M~c khac, cong nhan lanh nghS khong tim dugc cong vi~c phu
hgp

a cac nuac dang phat triSn, h9 cling quySt dinh di chuySn sang cac nuac

phat triSn ds tim dugc cong vi~c hai long vai muc thu nh~p cao hon ds cai thi~n
muc s6ng. Nhu v~y, thai gian troi qua, nhiing ngum di cu co tay nghs va khong
co tay nghS dSu co ca h9i tim dugc vi~c lam thich hgp, sau do gui kiSu hBi vS

nuac cho gia dinh nh~m dap ilng nhu cfiu chi tieu thiSt ySu, nha

a va gop phk

xay d\fllg h~ phuc cho nguai dan trong nuac cua hQ.
Bai nghien CUu nay la S\f giao thoa cua hai hu6ng tim hiSu. M9t la S\f tac
d9ng cua kiSu hBi len phat triSn tai chinh. Hftu hSt cac nghien CUu dugc thvc hi~n
tren phuong di~n kinh ts vi mo cua kiSu h6i va tac d9ng cua kisu hBi len tang
tru&ng la co

y nghia, co xu hu6ng cho r~ng kiSu hBi chu ySu dugc chi cho tieu

dung va khong dugc su dl,lllg cho dftu tu san xu~t, trong khi chi co dftu tu vao san
xu~t m6i gop phftn vao tang tru&ng dai h~n. Huang nghien CUu thu hai xet dSn

cac ySu t6 quySt djnh cua kiSu hBi va each thuc rna cac

CO'

sa h~ tftng khu V\fC tai

chinh, d~c bi~t la chi phi giao djch tac d9ng dSn xu huang chuySn kiSu hBi. Cac
tac gia nghien cilu tru&c day cling da nh~n m~nh dSn sv cftn thiSt phai dciy m~nh
tinh c~nh tranh giua cac nha khai thac chuysn tiSn dS giam chi phi giao dich va
kich thich kiSu hBi thong qua cac kenh chinh thuc. Trong kha nang nghien CUu
cua minh, toi da c6 g~ng tim hiSu va phan tich cac bkg chilng vS S\f b6 sung

ho~c kha nang thay ths giua kiSu h6i va phat triSn tai chinh trong vi~c thuc dciy

tang tru&ng.


12

Tru6c tien, dS kham pha m6i quan h~ gifra phat triSn tai chinh va kiSu h6i
thi ta cAn phai biSt chinh xac phat triSn tai chinh la gi va no tac d()ng nhu ths nao
dSn kiSu h6i. Phat triSn tai chinh co thS duqc dinh nghia Ia cac ySu t6, chinh sach
va cac t6 chuc rna dfin dSn nhfrng thi truang va trung gian tai chinh hi~u qua,
ciing nhu vi~c tiSp c~n sau r()ng v6i cac dich V\1 v6n va dich V\1 tai chinh (World
Economic Forum, 2011). Sg phat triSn tai chinh cua m()t qu6c gia thuang duqc
xac dinh thong qua cac d~c diSm nhu phc;un vi, muc d() phuc ~p, nang su~t va S\f

Bn dinh cua h~ th6ng tai chinh. H~ th6ng nay bao gBm thi truang, cac ben trung
gian, phan lo~i tai san, quy dinh cua cac ca quan va tB chuc chinh phu. NSu qua
trinh phat triSn tai chinh nay diSn ra tran tru trong m9t thai gian dai se cai thi~n
duqc ch~t luqng cu()c s6ng va mang l~i h~nh phuc, thinh vuqng cho cac ben co
lien quan.
NhiSu nha nghien cll'u cho r&ng: Phat triSn tai chinh c6 tac d()ng m~nh me
va tich C\fC d6i v6i tang truemg kinh tS (Giuliano & Ruiz-Arranz, 2009; Hassan,
Sanchez & Yu, 2011; Murinde, 2012; Zhang, Wang & Wang, 2012). DiSu quan
trc;mg la lam thS nao dS do luang chinh xac S\f phcit triSn tai chinh cua m()t qu6c
gia. C6 nha nghien CUu cho r&ng, each thuc thong thuang la nhin vao quy m6 va
muc d9 cua cac trung gian tai chinh trong m9t qu6c gia (Aggarwal et al., 2011;
Oke et al., 2011) va ciing c6 nha nghien cll'u cong nh~n r~ng phcit triSn tai chinh
ciing duqc do luang thong qua cac chi s6 phat triSn tai chinh.
KiSu h6i va phat triSn tai chinh khong chi hfru ich cho m9t qu6c gia vS
tang truemg kinh tS rna con c6 m6i quan h~ v6i nhau. Gia su r&ng kiSu h6i gia

tang, linh vgc ngan hang la m9t ph~n khong thS thiSu cua khu V\fC tai chinh ciing
se phat triSn dang kS. Cac gia dinh nh~n kiSu h6i ciing se tiSp c~n v6i r~t nhiSu
dich V\1 tai chinh, va gia dinh cua nhfrng nguai di cu c6 hay khong c6 ky nang,


13

tay nghS cung se dfiu tu b~ng each gui tiSt ki~rn ngan hang va rna ra cac ho~t
d9ng kinh doanh rn6i. Gia dinh

a nhiing

quae gia nh~n kiSu hdi c6 the kiSrn

dUQ'C lqi nhu~n kh6ng lB va linh Vl)'C tai chinh cua quae gia cfing dUQ'C d~y rn~nh.
Nhfrng l~p lu~n thuySt ph\lc nay da thuc d~y cac nha nghien Clru va hQC gia kharn
pha rnai quan h~ gifra kiSu hai va SlJ phat trien tai chinh a cac quae gia dang phat
triSn. Bai nghien Clru nay ciing khong ngoai rn\lC dich la di kiSrn djnh nhfrng l~p
lu~ tren CO'

I

sa ly thuySt d6.

DS phan tich duqc SlJ tuang tac gifra kiSu hai va phat triSn tai chinh, bai
nghien cliu da su d\lng rn9t sa luqng rn~u kha 16n cac quae gia dang phat triSn,

I

40 nu6c trong giai

do~n

tir 1995 - 2012. Trong qua trinh phan tich,

lu~

van c6

su d\lng cac chi sa thi tru0ng tai chinh tieu chu~n, va su d\lng chung trong h6i

I

quy tang truang dS nghien Clru tac d9ng trong qua trinh tuang tac cua nhfrng
I

biSn nay v6i kiSu hdi trong tang truang kinh tS. KSt qua la rn~c du kiSu hai chua
I

dong vai tro tich cgc trong vi~c thuc d~y tang truang a cac nu6c dang phat triSn,
tuy nhien chling ta v~n th~y c6 SlJ tuang tac qua l~i gifra kiSu hai va phat triSn tai

I

chinh, tir do co anh huang phfin nao dSn tang truang.
I

Bai nghien c(ru ciing chi ra b~ng chling r~ng kiSu hai la rn9t kenh c6 thS
thuc d~y tang truang, khi rna linh VlJC tai chinh khong dap ling dUQ'C nhu cfiu tin

I

d\lng cua nguai dan. 40 nu6c duqc chQn rn~u dSu la nhfrng nu6c dang phat triSn
c6 thu nh~p th~p dSn trung binh, hfiu hSt dSu c6 nganh tai chinh chua phat triSn
rn~nh. NSu nhu v~y thi kiSu hai se anh huang dSn tang truang thong qua tuang

tac vai phat trien tai chinh nhu thS nao?


14

2. TBng quan cac k~t qua nghien

CtfU

trtr6'c day (Literature Review)

Tac d{>ng cua kiSu h6i len phat triSn tai chinh r~t it dugc nghien cUu. Tuy
nhien, cling co m{>t vai nghien CUu diSu tra vS S\I dong gop cua kiSu h6i trong
vi~c thuc dAy phat triSn tai chinh cua m{>t nSn kinh tS ho~c m{>t qu6c gia (Oke et

al., 2011 ). NhCing nghien Clcu tru6c day vS kiSu h6i ~p trung vao cac khia c~nh
khac nhu S\I phat triSn kinh tS, doi ngheo, b~t binh d~ng thu nh~p, giao dl)C va y
tS (Adams & Page, 2005; Anyanwu & Erhijakpor, 2010; Gapen, Barajas, Chami,
Montiel, & Fullenkamp, 2009; Yang, 2006). Ml)C dich cua bai nghien CUu nay la
tim hiSu m6i quan h~ giua kiSu h6i va phat trisn tai chinh anh hu6ng dSn tang
tru6ng nhu ths nao a cac nuoc dang phat triSn co thu nh~p th~p va trung binh.
H~u hSt cac ly thuySt tru6c day dSu cho r~ng kiSu h6i ho~c la dugc sir

dl)ng cho tieu dung ho~c la dugc d~u tu kinh doanh, va cu6i cling d~n dSn phat

triSn tai chinh cho nhfrng qu6c gia tiSp nh~n. M6i quan h~ gifra phat triSn tai
chinh va kiSu h6i bay gia co thS th~y ro rang va dS dang hon r~t nhiSu. Cac
nghien CUu hi~n co cling kha gi6i h~n, m{>t vai nghien CUu da di tf\IC tiSp vao S\I
lien kSt gifra phat triSn tai chinh va kiSu h6i, h~u hSt dSu cho r~ng chung co m6i
quan h~ tich C\IC, dBng biSn v6i nhau. Tfmg quan vS cac bai nghien Clru nay dugc
t6ng hgp trong Bang 2.1 du6i day:


15

Nghien cuu

X

Mau

Mvc tieu

PbtrOllg

Dftu

K~tqua

phap

hi~u

nghien cuu

KiSu hbi c6 tac
d()ng tieu cvc
~

d@n

Dong kiSu
cua Du

hbi
Chami,

va'

cua

ngum di cu 113 qubc gia

C.Fullenkam
p,

Bang

R., nhfrng

li~u

s.

c6 phai hi trong

,

'

Jahjah (2003) nguon von
cho

do~n

..

giai

tU

tang

truemg kinh t@,
One-way

n6

fixed
Effects

va'

-

khong

khuy@n

khich
nh~n

nguai
Two-way

kiSu hbi Utm

fixed Effect

vi~c, do d6 d&n

phat 1970- 1998

d@n nSn kinh t@

trien?

kern.

Aggarwal,
Demirgil9
Kunt,
and Peria
(2006)

-

Tac

d()ng

cua

kiSu

hbi

len

phat

Dfr
'

trien

a

tai chinh
,

,

cac

nuac

dang

phat

'

trien

V&c
li~u

luQTig

KiSu hbi c6 tac

Fixed

d()ng tich cvc

Bang cua 99 Effects,
,

quoc

..

giai

gia, Generalized

do~n

1975- 2003

Methods of
Moments
(GMM)

+

va c6
dbi

y
,

.

VO'l

nghia
phat

'

trien tai chinh
(Huy

d()ng

ngan hang &


16

Tin

dvng

so

v&i GDP)

Do

lu(mg

tac

dqng Bang khong

cua

dong can ddi cua Ap dvng h6i
~

hdi 44 quoc g1a quy bang ca

ddi

,
Val

.

Gupta,

6

va

and
va

ngheo binh 5 nam

..

;::.

gial ngau

d6i 6 Sub- mm

Acosta,

Saharan,

do~n)

Africa

1975-2004

Baerg,

and

Mandelm an

tac

dqng

cua

Dfr

li~u

Bang

cua

?

phat

trien

linh

cua

(2010)
V\l'C

tai

chinh

len

tai

?

va' GMM

trien
chuySn
kinh

ts

d6i
tir

1990-2003

6

Africa

KiSu hdi thuc
dfty

phat lf&c

chinh

Sub-Saharan,

nhien

109 qudc gia
dang

kisu hBi va

(mg

tir & c6 djnh)

xet

kY

(Hi~u

.,

va gmp thuc
dfty phat triSn

(trung Effects

chinh g1an

X em

len ngheo d6i,

+

thai Fixed

tai
Wagh (2009)

dqng tich qrc

&

Random

?

trien do~n

phat
Pattillo,

.
..
g1a1

kiSu

KiSu hdi c6 tac

tY

gia c6

xu huang tang
luQ'Ilg

-

len, nhung tac
'
dqng nay
l~i

ySu han trong
linh

VlJC

tai

chinh duqc t6


17

cy gia thgc

chuc tot

h6i

KiSu

c6 thuc dfty

Du

li~u

Bang

cua V&c

phat

et al. (20 11)

tai chinh 6

,

cac

quoc

gta

dang

trong
do~n

..

gtai Effects

va

1975 - GMM

ph at

(2011)

li~u

Du

approach,

dai

Error

tir

1980

2010

-

Correction
Model

va

thuc ODA,

Mo hinh h6i

dong kiSu

quyOLS

?

trien
chinh

tai

phat

trong thai gian

trien chinh

h6i va phat

va

h6i

lien h~ t6n ~i

ARDL

thuang nien
?

cam giua kieu

dang phat triSn

cua

trg

nh~y

Khong c6 m6i

thuang
Kumar

,

,

vai tro cua

""

y

6 cac quoc gia

Kham pha

VI~n

cgc,

.;:_

2007

m~I,

tich

tnen tai chinh

phat triSn?

m6

h~

'

+

109 qu6c gia Fixed

lien

nghia va

luQ11g

triSn

Aggarwal

M6i

-

h~n

trong

khi l~i c6 m6i
quan

h~

nghjch

dao trong ng~n
h~n

giua phat

triSn tai chinh
va kiSu h6i


18

KSt lu~n r~ng
KiSm dinh
h~

sv lien

li~u

Du

Oke et al.

·gma

(2011)

hdi va phat cua Nigeria

.,..

kiSu thu(mg men

.

tai tir

trien

-

1977

kiSu

Ap
OLS

tac

d()ng m9t each

d1,mg
va +

tich

C\fC Vel

y

nghia dSn phat

GMM

triSn tai chinh

6 2009

chinh

hdi

6 Nigeria

Nigeria

Mdi

quan

h~

gifra

and
(2011)

.

phat

Carmignani,
Fayad

li~u

Bang

cua

138 qudc gia
tir

kisu hBi va
Brown,

Dfr

trien

tai

chinh

dugc

-

1970

li~u

cling

,
,...
CUOl

cua
Mo

3,899 h9 gia
dQ

Vl

hinh

C6 sv tac d()ng

dinh

ngugc

Fixed
Effects

diSu

tra 6 muc

Mo

2005. BQ dfr
va hinh

chiSu

gifra kiSu hdi
va phat triSn
tai chinh

Probit

tir

ffiO

Azerbaijan

va vimo
va 3,995 tir
Kyrgyzstan

Dfr

Esteves
and

Li~u

li~u

Mo

dong Bang cua 8 Fixed

hinh

+

Tac d()ng tich
C\fC

cua kiSu