DSpace at VNU: Using the interest rate tool to control inflation in Vietnam

VNU. JOURNAL OF SCIENCE, ECONOMICS-LAW, N01E, 2004

U SIN G THE IN TER EST RATE TOOL TO CONTROL
INFLATION IN VIETNAM
V u T h i D a u (*

Inflation is considered as a phenomenon

Form ula

(2) shows

th a t

when

the

associating w ith the m a rk e t economy, so in

estim ate d inflation r a te increases, it wil

modern economic circumstances, controlling

make

inflation is one of the essential ta rg e ts of

reflecting th e decrease in the real costs 01

each

in te re sts of the people participating the

nation.

However,

how

to control

th e

real

in te re st

credit

from different causes and occurs in different

borrowing money, b u t dam ages lending

economic

Therefore,

social

circum stances

in

which

the

is

decrease

inflation is not easy as inflation results
an d

m arket,

rate

beneficial

d e m an d s

money

different in te re st ra te tools in controlling

borrowm g money decreases, the interest

inflation to gain various goals. This article

ra te grows. The increase in the estim ated

discusses the use of the in te re st ra te tool

inflation r a te will re s u lt in the increase in

in controlling inflation in V ietnam - based

in te re st rate, which is th e effect cited bv

on

the economist, F ish e r an d is called Fisher

successful

lessons

and

the

but

th e

borrowing

different nations, which m akes use of the

the

increases,

for

for

supply

O-

•effect. This effect implies th a t if you fight

lim itations of this tool.

ag ain st inflation by lowering in terest ra tf,

1. The B asis o f C on trollin g Inflation
by In terest Rate
W ith

reg ard

to

th e

it is c ertain t h a t you will fail: the inflation
will increase.

relationship

Economists studied an d illustrated the

betw een in te re st ra te a nd inflation, there

relationship betw een inflation ra te and

have been m any research works and a

in te re st

sh a re d admission is th a t they are closely

countries including Italy, France, C anada,

related. The economist, F isher described

Holland, J a p a n ,

a n equation:

Brussels in th e period of 1982 and

ra te

in

th e

nine

developed

G erm any, Switzerland,
1983

i = ir + n * (1)
-> ir = i - n e (2)

relationship

i = in te re st

inflation.

The

ir: real in te re st

countries

which

n e : estim ated inflation ra te

inflation ra te are the ones which have hib'h

(This is an in te rn a tio n a l research on the

betw een

in te re st ra te

re sea rc h

shows

experience

the

and
th a t
hi£ib

in te re st rates. T h ree nation s which have
th e

n Faculty o f Economics, Vietnam National University,
Hanoi.

53

high est

inflation

ra te s

are

Italy 1


5

Vu Thi Dau

Fnce and C a n a d a a n d they are
tfee nations

th e

in te re s t

r a te

in

re a lity

is

considered as th e solution of m any nations,

lirtst rates; four n a tio n s w hich have low

including developing nations. Since 1983,

in to n

controlling

a re

have

of raisin g

highest

ra te

which

also

Japan,

G erm any,

the

in te r e s t

ra te

has

been

H aid and Sw itzerland, a n d they a re

po pu lar in L a tin A m erican co u n tries a n d it

a) he nation s which h av e low in te re st

h a s also become th e p rim a ry factor in the

ns

stabilization p ro g ra m m e s of K orea an d

ỈI brief, they a d m itte d in theory an d in
p:tce

th a t

th e

re la tio n sh ip

betw een

irn s t ra te a n d inflation is undeniable. It
isu basis for using th e in te re s t ra te tool
icoitrolling inflation in m any different
nois in modern economic circumstances.

T aiw an in th e m iddle of th e 1960s, and
Indonesia in 1986 a n d 1974. Some o th e r
n atio ns such as J a p a n , C h in a fell into
inflation in th e
century.

The

1990s of th e tw e n tie th
inflation

r a te

of

these

countries was a t th e m in u s level (Ja p an : 2 % / year, C hina: - 2.6 % / year). The

Tie Federal Reserve System of the

governm ents of th e se cou ntries h a d to use

Lt(d S ta te s of America (FED), to gether

many

W1 )ther tools, actively used th e in te re st

overcome

n t)ol in controlling inflation d urin g the

in te re st ra te (J a p a n im p le m e n te d th e zero

daces w hen

in te re s t rate, C h in a from 1996 to July,

th e

economy

faced

the

different

m e a s u re s

deflation,

ĨDhable situ a tio n of inflation rate. In th e

1997 seven tim es

y rso f 1979 and 1982, th e inflation ra te

rate).

and

tools

including

to

lowering

lowered th e

in te re st

(Anerica w as alw ays a t th e two digit
However, u sin g th e in te re s t r a te tool in

lek By raising th e discount ra te to a
hi evel in A m erica’s histo ry (10.5 % in
10 and 11.5 % in 1981), an d therefore,
t iiterest ra te a m o u n te d to 13.36 % in
19 and 16.38 % in 1981, did FED reduce
t ilflation r a te from 13.7 % in 1979 to
8 ° / in 1980 a n d 6.1 % in 1981, 1982. In
tn:e, a t th e end of 1978, th e economy
fuil 1981, 1982. In 1981, th e C en tral
h b of France h a d to raise th e discount
rs o 17.5% a n d th e m a rk e t in te re st ra te

t'lf.28% - th e h ig h e st in te re s t ra te in
Fn:e’s history, in o rd e r to repel th e
iiaton.

W ithin only six m onths, th e

dxnnt ra te w as ra ised twice as m uch as
t t n 1980. The solution to th e problem

controlling inflation can n o t stay for a long
time. If the in c re ase in th e in te re s t ra te
lasts to fight a g a in s t th e inflation, it will
decrease in v e stm e n t, total d e m an d and
o u tp u t an d u n e m p lo y m e n t will rise. The
fact

in

th e

c o u n trie s

fighting

a g a in s t

inflation by u sin g th e se tools has proved
this.

W hen

A m erica

controlled

the

inflation a t the one digit level in 1980,
1981, th e price th e y h a d to pay w as the
regression of to ta l d e m a n d a n d outpu t, so
from th e end of 1982, Fed lowered the
in te re st ra te from 11.5 % in 1981 to 9.25 %
in 1982. The sam e situ a tio n h a p p en e d in
France,

fighting

a g a in s t

th e

two digit

inflation by ra isin g in te re s t rate, th e total

V N i l , Journal o f Science, Econom ic s -Im w , N()IE, 2004


U sing the interest rate tool to.

)

d em and decreased a t - 5% in November,

again m ade inflation continue to gr«wf

1981. T his implies t h a t using the in te re st

th e

ra te tool in controlling inflation can affect

considered

the

economic

increased by 2.2 tim es in 1980; 29.9 iis

ta rg e ts and th a t u s in g the in te re st ra te

in 1985; 131.1 tim es in 1986; 548 tir.ea

tool should be carefully considered.

1987.

im plem en tatio n

of oth er

Moreover, it is impossible to use the
in te re st ra te tool to overcome inflation in
any cases because inflation re su lts from
different causes. T he in te re s t ra te tool is
best used w hen the grow th of money is too
high; a t t h a t tim e ra is in g th e in te re st rate
will re s tra in inflation.

2. C o n trollin g In fla tio n by th e In terest
Rate Tool in V ietn a m
By 1981, inflation in V ietnam had not

salary in circulation
as

th e

in

1976 \3

survey

marker, t

The a m o u n t of money is s u d i

circulation w as so high th a t it mac? 0

prices of commodities increase constin.
In such high inflation, it was the firs te
th e S ta te of V ietnam raised the ques\ 0 )f
fighting

a g ain st

inflation.

T h en a*

inflation p ro gram m es were d ra w n ipi

many offices under different level d
branches. Thus, a t t h a t tim e th e re Via
renovation in th e view a n d w y if
acknow ledging inflation. From th e n ci,e
m e asu re s of fighting a g ain st inflation we

been adm itted, b u t th e retail prices of

defined,

commodities and services in th e m a rk e t

im p le m e n tin g

increased by 20 % per year. From 1981,

such as carry ing out the m a rk e t pe

inflation was at th e level of 69.6 % per

m echanism ,

year, b u t it was not a d m itte d in th e official

r ig h t s of e n te r p r is e s , re fo rm in g ecQGC

docum ents. The g o v e rn m e n t dealt w ith it

policies

in the aspects of “price, salary, money”,

financial a n d m on etary policies alo’d

mainly by a d m in is tra tiv e

using

m easures.

In

associating
th e

the

Especially,
tools

of

including

per y ear a n d afte r t h a t it re m a in e d a t the

controlling th e inflation.

placed

V ie tn am ’s

self-on>l

th e

in te re s t

ra te

refom)f
plies,
tol n

By 1989, in te re s t ra te h a d onl bn
considered as a tool to im plem e.t le

“galloping inflation” of high level. The two

reallocation of n a tio n a l income, decraan

digit inflation w e n t on un til 1995 (in 1995:

product

5.3 % / year). T hus, e n te rin g the economic

expenses. Because of such a point c vv

renovation,

the

in te re st ra te w as not considered a s I id

inflation which w as very high a n d lasted

of price and th u s it was not usedaan

m any years. Such a serious inflation level

economic tool. The in te re st r a te Dies

forced

d u rin g this tim e period

V ie tn am

S ta te

to

in

re n o a n

the

th e

economy

stQS>f

m onetary

1986, inflation re a ch e d the level of 747 %
th re e digit level for th re e years, which

th e

th e

economic

w idening

etc.
th e

with

confronted

issue

th e

money

prices,

and

r e tu rn

of hk

m ainly 18 a

continually in ord e r to m eet th e spending

political aim a n d content, describngic

re q u ire m e n ts of th e economy, and this

discriminatory tre a tm e n t between eonii(

V N u , Jo u rn a lJ)f Science, Econom ics-Law , N ()IE, 2004


V u Thi Dau

‘cors and u n its an d show ing th e s ta te ’s

th e

ikidization

in te re s t rate, m e an w h ile th ese clients used

to

th e

s ta te

enterprises,

capital issued

w ith

the subsidized

socially, it is the real in te re s t ra te th a t

capital

a ‘ minus,

com pensations for losses from the s ta te

th u s

th e

in te re s t

ra te

ineffectively,

req u irin g

the

'Scribed by the s ta te was alw ays lower

budget

a i zero for a long time. W ith such

overspending of the s t a t e ’s budget. In tu rn ,

te est

th e budget o v e rsp en d in g requ ired to be

ra te

policies,

in te re s t

ra te

Ofcened inflation.

and

c o n trib u tin g

to

the

solved by issuing money. Therefore, the

?irst, in te re st ra te did not encourage
e saving in th e economy. In 1993, if a

volume of currency in circulation increased
rapidly.

ie*t kept 1000 VND in th e bank, the

The renovation in th e condition th a t

^ le of th a t sum of money would be

th e economy fell in to serious economic

[Uvalent to about 700 VND; similarly, in

crisis, inflation w as v ery high an d the

it

would

be

eq u iv alen t

to

only

’O/ND. W ith low income, th e households

financial
m ade

m a rk e t

w as

objective

underdeveloped,

re q u ire m e n ts

for

'i^ tn a m only had a very little am o u n t

reno vating

Sivings, they couldn’t allow th a t sum of

tra n s fe rrin g the one level b anking system

01ey to devalue w hen keeping it in the

(built in 1951) to th e two level banking

so they often used th a t a m o u n t of

system. W hen Decree No.53 (March, 1988)

the

b a n k in g

system,

01ey to buy commodities, gold and h a rd

was

rfcncies.

renovation model of th e banking system,

As

iwiodities

a

of

re su lt,

th e

different

prices

kinds

of

were

oving and inflation was worsened.
tecond,
nu p rise s.

th e
th e
In

m in us

in te re s t

capital
th e

ra te
th a t

mnodities were scarce a n d commodity
1C-S

increased

ptcially

s ta te

strongly,
e n te rp ris e s

enterprises,
ru sh e d

C entral

to g e th e r

B an k

with

d eterm ined

the
and

im plem ented m o n e ta ry policies, including

borrowing

condition

th e

prom ulgated,

to

ro w capital from the b a n k s to m ain ta in
ei‘ production an d b u sin ess operations
d t h e n stored commodities, w aiting for
e lig h e r prices in o rder to get benefits. It
*(e th e capital scarcer a n d th e prices of
m n o d ities continued increasing.

laying down as a policy th e surplus real

interest rate and considering the interest
ra te as an im p o rta n t tool of the m onetary
policy. At th a t tim e in te re s t ra te consisted
of two kinds: Subsidized in te re st ra te an d
agreed

in te re st

in te re st

r a te

ra te .

fa c ilitated

The

subsidized

enterprises

to

change d ram atically into operation in the
m a rk e t m echanism . T he agreed interest
ra te consisted of th e ag re ed in terest ra te of
th e

specialized

banks

an d

the

agreed

interest rate of the non-state organizations.
This a w a re n e ss re n o v a tio n of in terest ra te

nh ird , b a n k s m ainly loaned th e sta te

w as significant to control the economy in

n economy an d the collective economy

th e m a rk e t m ech anism , im plem ented in

VNU. Journal o f Science, EconomicS-Luw, N„IE, 2004


Using the interest rate tool to.

Vietnam. The in te re s t ra te w as initially

The competition of th e u n its which da

reg arded as price of currency and w as
gradually d e te rm in e d by th e m arket, th u s,

with money p ushed th e in te re st rate 0
hig h er level. The in te re s t ra te apple* 1

it m anifested a signal in V ie tn a m ’s credit

reality w as too high, exceeded the caoait

market.

of the m arket and caused the Ciptc
borrowing clients’ stron g reaction. At h
end of 1988, b a n k s h a d to reject the zg?e
lending. From M arch in 1989 -h
governm ent decided to change the inteet
ra te policy fu n d a m e n tally an d accorii g’
th e re was a difference betweer th
effective in te re st ra te and the estinite
in te re st rate. It is e stim a te d th a t intee:

ra te consisted of th e basic interest at
plus the inflation rate. Detective N 0 .&5 T
dated M arch 13, 1989 of the Counc
M inisters assigned th e Governor of tl
S ta te B ank of V ietnam the right
d eterm in e th e loan in te re st rate ư
ad ju st it to th e fluctuation of mak
prices. This was a new progress in tl
a w are n e ss of in te re s t ra te in Victrii
which allowed to use th e in te re st ra'^et-o
more effectively. T hus, in te re st rate Ml
regard ed as a criterion th a t needed t> 1
reckoned, im p lem ented an d laid ov
more actively. Decision No.39 /
d ated on April 10, 1989 set up the
b a n k ’s fu n d a m e n ta l principles of Oi
in te re st ra te an d deposit in te re st rat*

In

reality

from

J u ly

in

1987

to

F e b ru a ry in 1989, th e in te re s t ra te w as
adjusted twice in th e direction of lessening
subsidization d ra m a tic a lly th ro u g h credit
and inflation factor. The G overnor director
of the S ta te B an k s tip u la te d th e agreed
in te re st

r a te

b ased

on

two

principles:

agreed loan in te re s t ra te w as equal to th e
highest deposit in te re s t r a te (at t h a t tim e
it was 8%) plus ad d itio n a l b a n k charge (at
th a t tim e w as 0.3 -

0.4 %), th u s th e

in te re st ra te s increased rem ark ab ly . This
in te re st ra te policy played an active role,
avoiding
ad van tag e

the
of

s titu a tio n
b a n k ’s

of

capital

ta k in g
to

store

commodities and w aiting for profits when
the price of th e m increases, and freeding
billions of com m odity money considered
stag n a n t.
en terp rises

This
to

policy
consider

also
pluses

made
an d

minuses, revoke capital an d increase the
circle of capital. Therefore, the price index
dropped to 7.2 % p e r m onth in the last six
m onths of 1988 a n d 5 % per m o nth in the
first six m on th s of 1998.
Moreover, com m ercial b a n k s dealt w ith
in te re st ra te u n m eth o d ically and raised

follows:
1) The in te re s t ra te m u st be enouih
preserve the capital a n d profit.

higher th a n the guided one. In particular,

2) A u n ite d in te re s t is applie*
economic sectors a n d ad justed to t

the guided in te re s t ra te of the state b an k

fluctuation of m a rk e t prices.

the in te re s t r a te to th e level th a t was

on J u n e 6th, 1988 was 8.3 %, b u t some
ban k s im p le m e n te d with th e level of 8.4 %,
commonly with 9 - 10 % a n d even 11- 12%.

V N u , Journal o f Science, Economic S-Lxiw, N J E , 2004

3) All th e sources of capital mobiiz
by b a n k s for loan get in te re s t an d

V u Thi Dau

ln° ư t of money loaned by b a n k s is paid

in the ban k s for safe a n d steady profits.

n e > e i:t.

The

*9 The difference betw een the loan
n e)e^t r a te and th e in te re st ra te
sa'iiigg on average is 0.5 % per month.

of

U nited

M onetary

N ations,
Fund

appreciated
inflation.

th e

and

V ie tn a m ’s

The

In te rn a tio n a l
World
fight

developm ent

B ank
a g ain st

pro g ram m e

report of th e U nited N ations in December,
*) The stru c tu re of th e in te re st ra te of
’S/Digg an(j th e loan in te re s t ra te consists
basic in te re st r a te a n d th e index of
ủ n ịa jre in m a rk e t prices.
•phe

principles

above

were

1989 stated: The m e asu re s to stabilize
finance

and

money

ta k e n

by

the

governm ent of V ietnam in fighting again st
inflation were re m a rk a b ly successful in
1989. In fact, to control inflation w as the

npieifiented, from th e situ a tio n t h a t th e

resu lt of im plem entin g

nniis in te re s t ra te s la ste d for m any years,

m easures and tools in controlling inflation,

k

of which the effective contribution of the

in te re st ra te s

ifectiye

ones

in

becam e
1989.

ne>e$t

ra te s

w ere

nlation

ra te

(from

th e

su rplus

Moreover,

ad ju sted

the

to

th e

M arch, 1989

m any

different

in te re st ra te tool w as prim ary.
In

1989,

m a rk e t

prices

grew

on

to

average by 2.5 % / m o nth (15% / m onth in

<(D1U'iry, 1990 th e re w ere five tim es to

1988), th e inflation was reduced from the

ia u 3t th e in te re st rates). The policy of

three digit level in 1986, 1987 and 1988 to

;u’Plus effective in te re st rates, applied in

the level of 34.7 % in 1989 and th e two

a t th a t time, w as significant in

digit level of inflation rem ain ed u n til 1995

>oh theory a n d practice, w hich expressed

in th e direction of b e tte rin g the high ra te

hi Hew a w a re n e ss of th e in te re st rate: the

of inflation (14.4 % in 1994, 12.7 % in

nehegt ra te is not only a simple economic

1995).

ra ’i«‘ible b u t also a tool to fight a g ain st th e
However, th e policy of s u rp lu s effective

nlation effectively.

in te re st ra te w as absolutely im plem ented
^ihce then, th e inflation in V ietnam

only in 1992 because in 1990, 1991, the

ia5 been identified as re s u ltin g from m any

h a pp enin g

liferent

complicated, which m ade th e a d ju stm e n t

causes,

of w hich

th e

most

of

inflation

w as

too

;1£ntfic a n t factor is m onetary. R aising th e

of in te re st ra te impossible to catch up with

newest r a te of savings over th e inflation

the situation. It showed t h a t the flexible

ae

was considered as a fu n d a m e n tal

application of th e in te re st ra te policy was

ntasvire of th e a n ti-in flatio n m e asu re s in

not easy, which made th e in te re st rate

h s Period. The s u rp lu s a n d high deposit

u n su itab le to the fluctuation of inflation.

n e i'est ra te en su red th e money property
* th e

public,

which

m ade

th e

new

ir?Unistance emerge: In s te a d of storing
oruttodities, th e people k e p t th e ir money

In general, V ie tn a m ’s inflation control
before 1986 (mainly the fight ag ain st high
inflation) created good conditions for th e

VNU, Journal o f Science, Economics-Law', N„IE, 2004


Using the interest rate tool to.

economy to g am im p o rta n t achievem ents:

price index grew by 0.8 %. Although the

GDP w as twice as much as t h a t before the

consum er price index in 2001 w as ii>hei

renovation,

the

th a n th a t in 2000, th e economy w as stil ir

crisis, commodities becam e plentiful and

deflation a n d the economic growth d d n i

diversified, m ate ria l and sp iritu a l life of

reach th e ta rg e t of 7.5 % p er yea

the people was gradually improved.

proposed by th e N ational Assembly C-t )nb

From
re m a in ed

th e

economy

overcam e

1996, th e price index always
at

one

digit

level,

but

the

ae

reached 6.8 % per year).
W hen

analyzing

th e

causes

<’f th*

situ atio n became complicated: th e price

deflation, opinions were varied. ],,u 11

index of 1996, 1997 w as 4.5 % a n d 3.6 %,

brief, th e deflation re su lted from econ^nii

1998, 9.2 %; 2000, - 0.6 %; 1999 and 2001,

m echanism and stru c tu re , low a n d v.nivei

0.1 % a n d 0.8 %. T h a t situ a tio n placed

incom e

V ietnam

strong

in v e stm en t and fluctuation in th e vorl

deflation. If in 1996 the deflation lasted

m arket. In 1997, th e s ta te p u t fpr^ar

four m onths (from May to A ugust) w ith the

four groups

total deflation ra te of 1.6 %, in 1999, the

d em and in th e economy. In 1999, Ifi^rke

deflation continually lasted e igh t m onths

prices tend ed to fall down sharply,

(from M arch to October) w ith the total

th e g o vernm en t’s Resolution 08/ 19í*9 Q

deflation ra te of 4.4 %. In 2000, deflation

-C P

w as more complicated; how ever, it lasted

solutions to fighting a g a in s t deflation-

in a long lasting a n d

five m on ths (from M arch to July) with the
total deflation ra te of 3.4 % - no t as much
as

th a t

in

1999, b u t it showed

more

seriousness because th e price level in the
first m onths of 2000 w as not a s high as

t h a t in th e sam e period of 1999 (2 % as
com pared with 3.6 %). T h a t s itu a tio n led
to the general price base of th e economy in
2000, which w as much lower th a n th a t in
1999 (- 1.6 % as com pared w ith + 0.1 %). In
2001, due to the g ov e rn m e n t’s m e asu re of
s tim u la tin g d em an d to aim a t overcoming
deflation (im plem enting th e no-more- th a n
- 5 % inflation objective proposed by the
N atio n al Assembly), th e economy couldn’t
overcome
lasted

this

th re e

situation:

m onths

th e

deflation

successively (from

M arch to J u n e) a n d in 2001, th e consum er

VNU. Journal o f Science, Econom ic S - L u w

,

N„J E. 2004

of

th e

of

public,

solution

continued

to

ineffe'tiv

stim u la te th

bringing

ou t

^eve

Of th e solutions above, th e s ta te use

th e loosened m o n etary policy a n d active
renovated th e in te re st ra te policy ÌI’ ^
direction of liberalization to improve tỉ
situation. The in te re st ra te policy v.nd<
th is direction loosened th e interference
the C en tral Bank a n d th e liberalization
in te re st ra te was g rad ually im p leinant(
th ro u g h

m any

steps.

From

1996.

tl

in te re st ra te w as out of control u n d e r tl
in te re st ra te m a xim u m to g e th e r with t]
c o n stra in t

of

the

average

differen

betw een th e loan in te re st ra te anto M ay - 2002, it w as m a n ag e d undc-r t
basic in te re st rate. Sinca J u n e - 200-> t
in te re st ra te h a s been liberalized. l n t
im ple m e n ta tio n of this in te re s t r a t e I)0^1(


60

V u Thi Dau

to use the in te re st ra te tool aim ing a t

increase originated from m any different

overcoming the deflation, th e in te re st ra te

causes

was continuously ad ju sted to stim u la te the

fluctuation of prices in th e world m a rk e t

investm ent and consum ption dem and. The

1997, and five tim es in 1995. T he repeated

(petrol price and gold price in the world
grew high continuously), the in crease in

th e im port price of nitrogen, th e increase
in steel price, and th e bird flu epidemic in
our country and in some others. The

interest

years

situation above hap pen ed while th e whole

aiming a t stopping th e deflation didn’t

country made a n effort to im p le m e n t the

gain the re s u lt as expected, th e deflation

objective of high a n d solid economic growth

continued to get worse in th e years of 2000

in the period of 2001 and 2005, which

a n d 2001 (the price index in 2000 was —

posed a difficult question for th e economic

0.6 % and in 2001 w as 0.8 %). It showed

policy m akers. The S ta te B an k of V ietnam

th a t w hen in v e stm e n t w as ineffective and

advocated m a in ta in in g th e basic in te re st

consum ption was not sensitive to in te re st

ra te a t 0.625 % per m onth, a im in g at

rate, lowering in te re st r a te w a s n ’t effective

reaching th e norm of economic grow th of

enough to s tim u la te th e d em and . In 2002

2004, which is 7.5 % - 8%. However, the

a n d 2003, the deflation ra te decreased, th e

in te re st ra te s in th e m a rk e t te n d ed to

norm of no more th a n 4% inflation as

grow slightly, especially m edium a n d long

proposed by th e N ation al A ssembly w as

term in te re st rates.

deflation lasted for a long tim e, so the
C entral B ank continuously reduced the

interest rate: four tim es in 1996, twice in
ra te

fulfilled due

lowering

to

the

in

th e se

im p lem en tatio n

of

various com prehensive solutions.

such

as

th e

influence

of

the

It is possible to find t h a t the inflation
which h a s occurred since th e beginning of

The situ atio n becam e more unsolvable
w hen from th e beginning of 2004, inflation

2004

is

m ainly

due

to

th e

p ush

of

exp end iture and th e increase in th e price

tend ed to grow. According to th e figures of

of production factors, th u s th e m e asu re s of

th e

B ureau of S tatistics, pa rtic u la rly in

curbing inflation have to aim a t controlling

February, 2004, th e index of price increase

the prices of in p u t commodities. W h atev er

in the m a rk e t w as 3 % (equal to the level

the causes are, to overcome inflation, it is

of price increase of th e whole y e a r 2003).

n ecessary to a d ju st th e in te re st r a te to th e

G enerally calculating,

relationship betw een supply and d em an d

in

th e

first two

m onths, it increased by 4.1 %, th is h a s

for capital in th e m arket.

b e en the h ig h e st level of price increase of

3. L esso n s from E x p erien ce

th e first two m on ths over th e p a st ten
years. If we calculated eight m o n th s of the

T hrough

th e

reality

of u sing

th e

y e a r 2004, th e level of price increase was

in te re st ra te tool in controlling inflation in

8.3 %, exceeding th e pla n n ed norm of the

oth er countries and

w hole year of 2004. The s itu a tio n of price

lessons are d raw n from experiences as

in V ietnam , some

follows:

V N U , Journal o f Science, Econom ic S ' Law, N 0JE, 2004


Using the interest rate tool to.

61

First, inflation re s u lts from various

Third, in te re st ra te is one of the tools

causes, so it is impossible to use in te re st

of economic

ra te in all cases as a tool to achieve the

m on etary policy in particu lar; therefore,

goal as expected.

w h en

Second, in te re s t ra te is a special kind

of price, th u s w h en used as th e tool in
controlling inflation, it should be carefully

used

necessary

policy
to

to

in

general

and

of

control

inflation,

it

is

combine

different

tools

to g eth er to get th e b e st result.
Fourth,

w hen

inflation

becomes

and fully considered. The d e term in a tio n of

complex,

in te re st ra te in each na tio n is different,

carefully used in ord er to achieve the

but the common tendency in the m a rk e t

defined economic ta rg e ts (do not allow the

economy is to liberalize th e in te re st ra te

in te re s t ra te to be a n obstacle to the

when necessary.

im p le m e n ta tio n of o th e r objectives).

th e

in te re s t

ra te

should

be

REFERENCES
1.

Lê Vinh Danh, Chính sách tiền tệ và sự điều tiết vĩ mô của N gàn hàng trung ương ớ các
nước tư bản p h á t triền.

2.

Fredric s. Mishkin, Tiền tệ-Ngản hàng và thị trường tài ch ín h , NXB Khoa học Kỷ th u ật, Hà
Nội, 1994.

3.

Ngân hàng Nhà nước Việt Nam, Ngân hàng Việt N am , quá trình xây dựng và p h á t triẽn ,
NXB Chính trị Quồc gia, Hà Nội, 1996.

4.

Ngân hàng Nhà nước Việt Nam, Báo cáo thường niên các năm từ 1996 - 2003.

5.

Ngân hàng Nhà nước Việt Nam, Báo cáo chính sách lãi suất ở Việt N a m (Bản sô 1), tháng
11 - 2002 .

6.

Ngân hàng Nhà nưốc Việt Nam, Tài liệu hội thảo “J3àn về cho vay theo lãi suất thoả thuận
bằng đồng Việt N a m ”, Hà Nội, 2002.

7.

Nguyễn Minh Phong, L ý thuyết lạm phát, giả m p h á t và thực tiễn ở Việt N a m , NXB Chính
trị Quốc gia, Hà Nội, 2000.

8.

Thời báo kinh tế Việt Nam, K inh tế V iệ t N am và Thê giới'. 2000 - 2001, 2001 - 2002, 2002 2003, 2003 -2004.

9.

Viện tiền tệ tín dụng, Ngân hàng Nhà nước Việt Nam, Thông tin chuyên để lãi suảt ngàn
hàng tập 1, tập 2, 1991.

V NU, Journal o f Science. Ecotiom ics-Luw, N„IE, 2004

V u Thi Dau

62

TAP CHÍ KHOA HỌC ĐHQGHN, KINH TẾ - LUẢT, s ố 1E, 2004

SỬ DỤNG CỒNG CỤ LÃI SUAT TRONG KIEM s o á t l ạ m p h á t
ở VIỆT NAM
Vũ Thị D ậu
K hoa K in h tê\ Đ ại học Quốc g ia H à N ội

Kiểm soát lạm p h á t là một tro n g n h ữ n g mục tiêu q u a n trọng n h ấ t của mỗi nước. Để đạt
được mục tiêu này, mỗi nưốc ph ả i sử dụng n h iề u biện pháp và công cụ k hác n h a u . Một
trong những công cụ kiểm soát lạm p h á t phổ biến n h ấ t là công cụ lãi suất. Trong thực tế, sử
d ụng công cụ n ày đã m ang lại bài học th à n h công cho nh iều nước.
Việt Nam là một quốc gia đã th à n h công tro n g việc đẩy lùi lạm p h á t ba con sô' b ằ n g các
sử dụng công cụ lãi s u ấ t vào cuối th ậ p kỷ 80 của th ế kỉ 20. Bằng cách thực hiện d ẩ n dần
công cụ này, từ 1986 đến này, lạm p h á t được kiểm soát ở mức một con sô".
Tuy nhiên, sử dụ n g công cụ lãi s u ấ t có hiệu quả vì mục tiêu kiểm soát lạm p h át, hiện
nay còn nhiều vấn đề cần phải giải quyết: từ b ả n th â n việc thực hiện công cụ lãi s u ấ t tới
việc thực hiện nó và k ế t hợp với các công cụ và biện ph áp khác.

V N i f , Journal o f Science, Econom ics-Luw\ NnIE, 2004