Tác động của khủng hoảng từ khu vực kinh tế chung châu âu đến hoạt động đầu tư và thị trường tài chính châu á e

The impact of the crisis from the European economic area to investment activities
and financial markets in Asia
1. European debt crisis has started like?
2. Why Asia should pay attention to this crisis of European areas ?
3. European debt crisis like that would affect markets t one main ?
4. Why the Interest of bonds increased in response to this crisis and this desire not
mean anything?
5. Will European confidence crisis spreading to Asia not ?
6. You think: "East Asian dollar may not be the right choice" ?

The impact of the European economic crisis degrade not only negatively
impact the U.S. economy and the Asian economy as well as the world. No place is
immune to a "flat world", an open world economy today.
Having suffered from difficult economic crisis from Europe, the decline in
China, India and the United States, the world's 3rd largest economy Japan is facing
the risk of recession after the economy decreased by 3.5% in quarter 3/2012, the
biggest decline since the earthquake and tsunami in March / 2011.
If you continue to decline in the quarter 4/2012, the Japanese economy will
officially recession n ê n the European economy and in the economy, this is
inevitable when Europe and China is a major trading partner of Japan.
"Based on the economic data, there is the real possibility that the Japanese
economy is in recession,".
If the European economy crisis back this will be the 3rd recession in Japan
since 2008. "Do not have anywhere to avoid the economic recession in Europe and
in many other developed economies, and the uncertainty about" fiscal brink, "the
United States will continue to spread to Asia.

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Can be said that most of the countries have public debt, more or less, temporary

or chronic. Public debt plays an important role in development, but will become a
victim of the start of the damage to the economy. It can lead to inflation, making
countries unable to pay and investors lost confidence.
More than ever, during the financial crisis, public debt is a burning issue in
many countries. Not only the poor, developing countries where even the U.S. and
some developed countries in the European Community have also encountered this
problem. Recognizing this is a big topic, extensive and technical in nature, from the
reference literature and collectibles magazines and the internet, I do the project
"The impact of the general economic crisis from area Europe to investment
activities and the Asian financial markets. "

1. U parent debt crisis Europe has started like?
Is derived from the Greek crisis: The Greek government made a mistake in the
management and dishonest notification economic data for many years. Loss of
belief makes Greece crisis more difficult. Any decision of the Greek government to
solve budget problems are skeptical, therefore more difficult to solve the crisis.
outside the Greek capital fled, about 30% of the activities of the country's economy
with fraud, 90 percent of high-income declaration took less than 30,000 Euro / year
in order to avoid paying taxes. Greece has only 15,000 people declared income
above 100,000 euros / year. Greek Finance Minister Papaconstantinou said no one
can believe in Greece only 15 000 people with incomes over 100 000 Euro / year. In
addition, the Greek government considered the area of the protection factor is not
the driving force of the economy. an issue related to the financial of the Greek
Church, one of the largest land owners this country, did not have to pay a tax.
Although the social democrats have asked the Church to pay taxes like everyone
else, but so far have not seen any measures be introduced.

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The government revenue is not enough to cover: economic analysts have said
that the debt crisis in Europe is due to spending by the government is too big, even
for that, the government has no responsibility when spending decisions are too big
for the economy and economic growth of the country. The big spending has created
budget deficits and the public debt crisis (Higher salaries for politicians and civil
servants, social security systems and labor, early retirement).

T problems in financial institutions and economic governance in Europe: the
European Central Bank (ECB) also reacts slowly with the economy in crisis.
Besides, economist Joseph Stiglitz, who won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2001
said that the measure of the current government focus on reducing the budget deficit
should be here also cause increased risk.
Pressure of tycoon groups:

speculators, large financial institutions and the

economic center of economic power to persuade the government institutional
adjustment, not only the application of measures of institutional reform.
Governments have to spend several billion euros to support the banks and for
programs to support economic activity in order to save the banks and the economy
is not broken this debt inevitably increase. Meanwhile, private banks receive
interest absorbed, about 1%, from the central bank with the purpose of providing
financing for private enterprises and development of production but use the money
to purchase of government debt at an interest rate of 4% or 5%.

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Problem neoliberal economic policies: Many economic studies that the current
crisis is due to liberal economic policies caused. Therefore, countries want to get rid

of the need to abandon neoliberal economic policies and move to Keynesian
economic policy, policy stimulus.
Speculative financial activities: Currently in Greece, Portugal and Spain are
faced with very high financial speculation. The next victim could be Iceland and
Italy. The purpose of speculation is increasing government bond interest rates
highest may shy profit. Greek Prime Minister Papandreu published report said the
country's public deficit in 2009 three times more than the government had
previously announced and reached 12.7% of GDP, public debt will be more than
120% of GDP in 2010 and 135% of GDP in 2011. Only in 2009 the public debt of
Greece to Euro 80 billion foreign debt to 125% of GDP.
There are many causes of the debt crisis in Europe is the expert pointed out.
For each country, it is the ability to poor governance, lack of reasonable expenses,
or loss of control of the lending activities of the banking system ... With the region,
it is a habit "to spend more revenue" prolonged and social welfare systems more
and more bloated. To cope the world financial crisis in 2008, European easily
borrow too much, is not compatible economic growth and thus push the budget
deficit and public debt soared, exceeding ability to control.
I m back, the debt crisis of the European countries stems from many causes,
both inside and outside. Plot and intentions of the Chinese tycoons continue to put
pressure on the financial markets to speculative profit in the short term. 750 billion
euro bailout package works in the short term, but in the medium term, the potential
risk is still high, there is still doubt about the debt and financial instability. This
situation may affect the European economy, but also may cause effects on the
world.
2. Why Asia should pay attention to the crisis of the European area.
Because c estimated financial banking crisis is getting worse in Europe, with
the U.S. economic recovery will be slow pressure factor for the development
prospects of Asia.

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Asia made a lot of trade with Europe European Union (a group of 27 countries
that use the euro area) is the largest economy in the world, accounting for 27% of
global GDP. Meanwhile, the United States is 23% of global GDP. Asia (excluding
Japan and Australia, but including China and India) accounted for 18% of the GDP
of the world economy. Asian exports to reach $ 541 billion by the European Union
in 2010. Europe accounted for 16% of direct exports of Asia prior to the transaction
intra-Asian trade that ultimately supply the needs of European countries (eg South
Korea exported the ingredients to Thailand and then exported to Europe).
As such in Asia's capital account, it is easy to see that the European common
currency area is an important investor in Asia in recent years - both in terms of
financial assets and investment directly. The events of the euro crisis, investors tie n
euro area interest capital in the form of liquid assets, the euro, and take profits
wherever possible, all three factors shows return to the Asian financial markets.
3. European debt crisis affected how the financial markets?
Ability to spread makes the European debt crisis nh u an important focal point
for the world's financial markets during the period 2010 - 2012. With the market
volatility in 2008 and 2009 is quite recent in memory, reaction of investors with bad
news from Europe happened quickly sell anything dangerous, and buy government
bonds the largest in the country and the best financing. Typically, European bank
shares and the overall European market-evolutions worse ng out compared to their
global counterparts during the crisis center. The bond markets of countries affected
also performs poorly, because of increase in interest rates means that the price is
reduced. At the same time, the U.S. government bond yields fell to a record low in
the history of the reflection of the investor "flight to safety".
The last months of 2011, the debt crisis in Europe in the period of danger,
spreading from the periphery to the center economy euro area Euro (Eurozone). The
massive bailout of the European Union (EU) and International Monetary Fund
(IMF) for the economy mired in debt, such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal is not

enough to quell the risk debt crisis spread to the core economies of the euro zone,
including France,

I-ta-li-a and Spain. Common problem is the tension between the

pressure to reduce the budget deficit with austerity measures is not resolved pull
down the government in five countries, including Ireland, Portugal, Greece, I- Trang 5


Italy and Spain. After ten years in circulation, at the same Euro which is considered
the most defining symbol of European integration patterns were brought to dissect,
even criticism. Union single currency in Europe the verge of bankruptcy, causing
many people have discussed the breakup of the Eurozone scenarios with effects
large enough to cause chaos in the financial markets.
The crisis laid bare the deep divisions in the EU, after nearly 20 years of the
EU treaty was signed and the premise is formed block euros later. Pressure on
demand unified common fiscal policy that France and Germany would like to
amend the Treaty Li-xbon, which must go through the process of drafting and
through nearly a decade. Some Member States blamed the weak capacity of some
government drag the whole region into a spiral of crisis, to share the risk and accept
the damage caused by his error. Poor countries in the east also have contributed to
the relief fund richer countries in the west in debt. To protect the national interest, I
was standing outside the joint efforts of the block. Whether through "financial
agreements" to temporarily reverse the risk of collapse of the Euro, but the first EU
Summit in December still miss the "last chance" to radically reform a "European
European unification "...
4. Why bond yields rose in response to this crisis and this desire not mean
anything?
The reason for rising bond yields is very simple: if investors see risk associated
with investing in bonds of a country, they would demand higher returns to

compensate for the risk it. This starts a vicious cycle, which requires a higher
interest rate equivalent to higher borrowing costs for countries in crisis, leading to
further financial stress, causing investors to require interest even higher, and
continue so. A general loss of confidence investors often cause effects not only for
the country in question but also other countries have similar weak financial base an effect known as "spread".
5. Will European confidence crisis spreading to Asia?
Analysts credit of Standara & Poor, Elena Okorotchenko said, "The main
channel of the spread is higher funding costs. That said, we do not expect the same
degree of reduction for the financing conditions for Asian countries ".
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"In some Asian countries with relatively high debt burden, Japan, India, and
Taiwan mainly domestic lending and not have to endure the changes in the
psychology of investors as the borrower outside ".
According to economic experts, the crisis spread belief in the market decline
from the scope of an economy and has spread to other economies through
commercial activities connected, the similarity of economic economic or financial
links.

Speaking at a forum in Singapore, IMF Deputy Managing Director Naoyuki
Shinohara stressed the dangerous developments in Europe are now able to disrupt
global trade, Asian influence by sub region is heavily on external demand.
Specifically, in the field of finance and credit troubles could spread to Asia
through the channels of financing, the debt crisis in some euro zone countries may
cause effects "domino" to continent.
In addition, although Asia is attracting a lot of investment (due to the growth
outlook, low interest rates, etc.), but some of the major economies in the region face
the risk of overheating, should have reasonable policies. On the other hand, riskaverse sentiment may cause capital inflows into Asia to quickly change direction.
Shinohara said that Asian governments should be cautious before the potential

risks from the debt crisis in Europe and ready to act when needed.
He claimed that due to Asian economic growth so strong that these policy
choices made in this area a very large impact on the global economy.
6. Do you think: "East Asian dollar may not be the right choice"
Asian common currency issue has been mentioned quite a lot in the
international and regional conferences, since the 1997-1998 currency crisis.
According to the Hanoi Plan of Action (12/1998) and the ASEAN +3 Summit in
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Manila (11/1999), and ASEAN +3 Chiang Mai (Thailand - May / 2000). The idea of
forming a common currency in Asia (AS) is a very positive trend in regional
integration, on the one hand to promote socio-economic development, increased
competitiveness, on the other hand will help the country Asian restrict too much
reliance on the dollar and avoid fluctuations in the international currency market.

But the greatest difficulty for the launch of AS is a big difference between the
core member and of preparing for aszone process of achieving unity in difference is
too large. Because of the diversity of economic, cultural, political, between the
Asian countries also form many different levels of economic development in the
region to make up the gap in the level of development of the country. The difference
in the level of economic development led to the determination of the difference
between the interests and priorities of cooperation. Gap also create disadvantages
for the less developed countries in the international division of labor, due to the
large country has more advantages in capital, technology and competitiveness. To
date, the publication using ACU (2006) are quite similar as ECU (vii), established
the Asia Foundation, launched the Asian bond market, the provisions of the
conditions in joining area ... apparently as simulation of the formation of the
eurozone. So learn from the eurozone, most problems of money, coordinate fiscal
policy with a route consistent with the international trend of ever-changing, must be

treated in the process of preparing was born aszone. This is one of the key contents
of the Asian common currency.
In summary, the present day is variable, the change is infinite, even
forecasting is always finite. Therefore the calculation and prediction of the unity of
the currency and the introduction of AS will be the rule, will be very attractive, it is
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important, if the preparation route and walk for reasonable aszone, which is
beginning preparations for the next step. /
7. European financial crisis like that would affect Vietnam?

Financial and economic crisis in Europe has 'burned' by about 1/3 of the
world's assets, but not so exhausted invested, whereas the world's idle cash flow is
greatly increased with which was withdrawn from the European market, the United
States after the last event. This cash flow select investment opportunities to bring
high returns and low risk, trust is the market of emerging economies will bring what
they want. In Vietnam it has been ranked in the mighty tiger t of the emerging
countries. It's a very good chance that we need to grasp because our country needs
huge capital to restructure the economy and keep the level of development of the
last year. Opportunities is entirely hand, if we prove the stability of the national
economy as well as the ability to prevent inflation, currently at record levels in the
region.
Negative consequences arising from the situation in the world, mainly in the
area of foreign trade. Of course, when the global economic difficulties, our exports
will be difficult, with weak demand, competition on the world market will be more
intense and with the high quality items without (compared with other competitive
players) we will have to reduce prices. As a result, as soon as keep export volumes
as before, but will reduce turnover (this argument does not apply to certain raw
goods, especially agricultural products, the market price has increased rapidly

during the the last time). Devaluation of the dollar phenomenon has bad
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consequences, when the prices of the commodities on the dollar increase, which is
imported inflation due to the phenomenon that we have to face.

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References:
International corporate finance curriculum: PhD Nguyen Hoang Giang
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