Volume 2 wind energy 2 02 – wind energy contribution in the planet energy balance and future prospects

2.02 Wind Energy Contribution in the Planet Energy Balance and Future
Prospects
JK Kaldellis and M Kapsali, Technological Education Institute of Piraeus, Athens, Greece
© 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

2.02.1
Introduction
2.02.2
Energy Consumption around the Planet
2.02.3
Electrical Power and Electrical Generation
2.02.4
Fossil Fuel Status of Our Planet
2.02.4.1
Oil Data
2.02.4.2
Natural Gas Data
2.02.4.3
Coal Data
2.02.5
The Role of RES and Fossil Fuels in the Energy Future of Our Planet
2.02.5.1
The Energy Balance of Our Planet
2.02.5.2
Time Depletion of Fossil Fuels
2.02.5.3
Environmental Impacts of Energy: Carbon Dioxide Emissions
2.02.5.4
Comparing RES and Fossil Fuels (Pros and Cons) with Emphasis on Wind Energy
2.02.6
Wind Power Status in the World Market

2.02.7
Time Evolution of the Major Wind Power Markets
2.02.8
Forecasting the Wind Power Time Evolution
2.02.9
The Future and Prospects of Wind Energy
2.02.10
Conclusions
References
Further Reading
Relevant Websites

Glossary
Developing country A term generally used to describe a
nation with a low level of material well-being.
Energy fuel mix The distribution within a given
geographical area, of the consumption of various energy
sources (i.e., crude oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear energy,
and renewable energy).
Fossil fuel A hydrocarbon deposit, such as petroleum,
coal, or natural gas, derived from the accumulated

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14

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17

20

20

21

21

22

22

25

25

27

31

35

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37

39

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remains of ancient plants and animals and used
as fuel.
Renewable-based electricity generation Electricity which
comes from natural resources such as sun, wind, tides, and
geothermal heat, which are renewable (naturally
replenished).
Thermal power station A place where electric energy is
produced from thermal energy released by combustion of
a fuel or consumption of a fissionable material.

2.02.1 Introduction
Survival of the humankind along with the majority of human activities are directly dependent on the exploitation of energy
sources, with the continuous increase of global energy consumption being actually a reflection of the constant evolution of
humankind, especially in the days following the industrial revolution. During the time being, a transition may be noted
from the early days of biomass (human power, animal power, wood, etc.), solar and wind energy exploitation, to the times
of today, where people’s welfare much relies on the consumption of fossil fuel reserves (oil, natural gas, and coal) and
nuclear energy, with much faith presently given to the solution of nuclear fusion for the energy supply security of future
generations [1].
In this context, if considering the huge amounts of energy consumed in the various sectors (i.e., industrial, residential,
commercial, agricultural, stock farming, and transportation), one should emphasize on the critical role of energy in contemporary
societies, not only as a measure of life quality [2] but also as an important factor of production processes. On top of that,
contribution of energy is also critical in the field of global water reserves’ management [3], while during the recent years, special
attention has been given to issues of association between energy and the natural environment [4].
Energy use by modern people includes electrical energy consumption, mainly for the satisfaction of domestic needs as well as for
the coverage of loads during work hours, and direct consumption of liquid fuels or natural gases for transportation and heating

Comprehensive Renewable Energy, Volume 2

doi:10.1016/B978-0-08-087872-0.00202-X

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Wind Energy Contribution in the Planet Energy Balance and Future Prospects

10
1980

9

2008

Energy (toe/cap)

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1

U

M

e
ni
te xic
d
o
St
at
es
Br
az
Fr il
a
G nce
er
m
a
G ny
re
ec
U
e
ni
te Tu
rk
d
Ki ey
ng
do

m
R
us
si
a
Ira
n
Eg
y
Et pt
hi
op
N ia
Ba ige
ng ria
la
de
sh
C
hi
na
In
d
In
do ia
ne
si
a
Ja
pa

Pa n
ki
st
an
W
or
ld

0

Country
Figure 1 Total primary energy consumption per capita (1980–2008) for selected countries.

needs, while on top of that one should also consider the energy included in nutrition along with the embodied energy of products
and services used on a daily basis.
As a result of these activities, the average US resident uses on an annual basis almost 8.5 toe of primary energy (or 60 barrels of oil
equivalent), while the corresponding energy consumption per capita in the biggest European countries and Japan is almost 4.5 toe (or 30
barrels of oil equivalent) (see also Figure 1). Besides, it is worthwhile mentioning that almost one-third of the above-mentioned energy
consumption is attributed to the domestic sector and thus comprises direct energy use by each typical resident of a given country.
On the other hand, primary energy consumption of the less-favored developing countries is by far lower than the one
corresponding to the developed world and does not exceed 0.5 toe yr−1, while the global average is kept within the range of
1.9 toe yr−1, presenting an increase of approximately 15% during the last decade. In this context, it is interesting to note that the
average annual nutrition requirements of a person does not exceed 0.12 toe yr−1, with implications deriving from the comparison of
figures given illustrating the current energy state of our planet.

2.02.2 Energy Consumption around the Planet
In order to describe the energy consumption state of our planet, in Figure 2 one presents the long-term time evolution of primary energy
consumption at a global and regional level during the last 30 years. As it may be concluded from the information provided in the figure,

14000

12000

Energy (Mtoe)

10000

Rest Asia & Oceania
Japan
India
China
Africa
Middle East
Eurasia
Europe
Central & S. America
N. America

8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year

Figure 2 Primary energy consumption time evolution (1980–2008) globally and per region.


Wind Energy Contribution in the Planet Energy Balance and Future Prospects

13

there is a remarkable increase of the global primary energy consumption during the specific period that reaches approximately 80%,
while at the regional level, one may distinguish the cases of China and India where an impressive increase is recorded [5].
Considering the above, relation between population increase and primary energy consumption is designated [6], especially in
cases of developing countries where one should also consider the vast need for the improvement of life quality that also leads to the
increase of energy consumption per capita. On the other hand, however, technology advancements, more rational use of energy
resources, and efforts toward energy saving comprise the main elements of deceleration for the constant increase of primary energy
consumption, especially in the industrially developed countries of our planet [7].
Meanwhile, based on the latest official data (see also Figure 3), the world population has increased rapidly since 1950 from
2.5 billion to almost 7 billion people in 2010, while it is expected to exceed 9 billion by 2050. What is even more interesting,
however, is the fact that the increase recorded is attributed to the population of developing countries, reaching nowadays a total of 6
billion people. Keep in mind that although in the specific regions primary energy consumption per capita was up to now kept quite
low, constant development of local economies shall lead to considerable improvement of life quality standards and thus to an
outbreak of primary energy consumption at a global level.
In view of the expected increase of the global primary energy consumption, Figure 4 presents the long-term time evolution of the
energy fuel mix of our planet during the last 30 years. As it may accrue from the data given in the figure, energy demand of our planet
is primarily covered by the use of fossil fuel reserves at the dominant percentage of over 90%, while participation of renewable

10000
9000

1950

1 billion people

1975

OECD

2000

Non OECD

Population (million)

8000
7000

2025

6000

2050

5000
4000

Developing countries

3000
2000ven in Figure 37.
Besides that, environmental performance of wind energy perceived by the majority of people (over 70% in favor) [104, 105] and
transformed into widespread social support (only solar energy seems to be more socially accepted) further boosts wind energy
developments (Figure 38). On the other hand, one of the challenges that wind energy is faced with during recent years is the
paradox of increased social support being obscured by real-life NIMBY attitudes [36, 106, 107], especially since availability of good
sites is becoming increasingly rare.
Recapitulating, unless out of the box solutions appear, it is anticipated that despite the economic recession encountered at a
global level, in the next few years the capital cost of wind energy applications will stabilize at the levels of 1000 € kW−1, with
the cost of offshore projects gradually approaching the one of onshore. Furthermore, public attitude toward wind energy

applications is expected to remain positive although some minor shocks are also anticipated, owing to the fact that presence of
wind parks near densely inhabited areas will inevitably increase. On the other hand, operation of offshore wind parks will
alleviate the situation in the industrialized world, while in developing countries of the planet wind energy will continue to be
appraised as a ‘blessing of nature’. Finally, given the up to now progressive strengthening of competitiveness in the field, it is

8

(Employees/MW)

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5
4
3
2
1

K
U

Au
st
r
Be ia
lg
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Bu m
C
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ar
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ia
R
ep
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D blic
en
m
ar
Fi k
nl
an
d
Fr
an
ce
G
er
m
an
G y
re
ec
e
H
un
ga
ry
Ire

la
nd
Ita
N
et
he ly
rla
nd
Po s
la
n
Po d
rtu
ga
l
Sp
ai
Sw n
ed
en

0

Figure 35 Employment opportunities in the wind energy sector by EU country (2006–07). Based on data from Eurostat (2010) Energy
statistics-infrastructure. . europa.eu/ (accessed December 2010); Blanco MI and Rodrigues G (2009) Direct employment in the wind
energy sector: An EU study. Energy Policy 37: 2847–2857.


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Wind Energy Contribution in the Planet Energy Balance and Future Prospects

Global Warming Potential-LC GHG Emissions

LC Emissions (kgCO2/MWh)

1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200

d
W

w
po

uc
H

yd

ro

N

in

er

ar
le

PV

G
N

C

oa

O
il

l

0

Figure 36 Comparison of life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions between different electricity generation technologies. Based on data from Weisser D
(2007) A guide to life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from electric supply technologies. Energy 32: 1543–1559.

Avoidance of External Costs (in M ) in Accordance
with the European 2020 "High" Scenario

8330

7660

335

Germany
Spain
UK
France
Italy
Poland
Sweden
Netherlands
Greece
Ireland
Other

1696
676
844

6429

1246
2669

3737

4662

Figure 37 Estimated avoidance of external costs through the use of wind energy in EU in 2020. Based on the data from Wind Energy the Facts (2010)

Avoided emissions and external cost for different wind deployment scenarios in the EU27 Member States in 2020. />(accessed December 2010).

Social Acceptance of Wind Energy in Comparison
with Other Technologies

100%
80%
60%
Don’t Know

40%

Opposed
Balanced Views

20%

Nuclear

Coal

Oil

Gas

Ocean
Energy

Hydropower

Wind
Energy

Solar
Energy

0%

Biomass

Energy


In favour

Figure 38 Social acceptance of various electrical power technologies. Based on the data from European Commission (2007) Special Eurobarometer,
energy technologies: Knowledge, perception, measures. (accessed December 2010).


Wind Energy Contribution in the Planet Energy Balance and Future Prospects

35

anticipated that gradually some of the States’ support mechanisms – in force until now – will be gradually abandoned,
although wind parks will still entail considerable environmental gains and minimization of external costs of energy through
the substitution of thermal power stations.

2.02.9 The Future and Prospects of Wind Energy
Through the study of projections concerning the future of wind energy carried out in the last 15 years, what is impressive to
note is the level of underestimation with regard to the evolution of wind power in Europe. More specifically, the initial target of

40 GW set by the White Paper of the European Commission was during 1997 – as one would expect – also adopted by the
European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) (Figure 39). Nevertheless, 3 years afterwards, due to the remarkable increase rates
of wind power growth met in Germany, Spain, and Denmark, EWEA had to review the target set for 2010 and actually increase
it by 50%, that is, at 60 GW by 2010 while also setting a target for 2020 at 150 GW. Following, EWEA proceeded to a second
review of targets in 2003, this time increasing them by 25%, meaning 75 GW by 2010 and 180 GW by 2020. Eventually, due to
the extension of the EU and the inclusion of new Member States, the targets for 2010 and 2020, respectively, were reassessed for
the third time to the goal of achieving 80 GW by 2010, maintaining the same 180 GW for 2020, and finally aiming at 300 GW
by 2030.
The result of all these projection inadequacies was the emergence of many different points of view and contradictions between
experts of the field, with the European cumulative installed capacity of wind power in 2010 however growing, as already mentioned,
to 86 GW (i.e., almost 10% of the respective total European electricity power capacity). In this context, by acknowledging the
possibility of vitiation for any given claim or prediction, in the following, it is only official data that are recorded concerning future
developments in the field of wind energy.
Up till now, the policy framework of the EU was of critical importance for the promotion of RES and wind energy in particular. In
this context, new targets set call for 20% coverage of the final energy consumption by RES by 2020, while in terms of electricity
consumption, wind energy is expected to contribute by 14–17%. In fact, the two following scenarios have been elaborated on the
basis of the 2020 target [108]:
1. The ‘baseline’ scenario that assumes a total installed wind power capacity of 230 GW (Figure 40), producing 580 TWhe of
electricity and increasing the electricity demand coverage by wind from 4.1% in 2008 to 14.2% in 2020.
2. The ‘high’ scenario where the total installed wind power capacity is assumed to reach 265 GW by 2020, producing 681 TWhe of
electricity and increasing the electricity demand coverage from 4.1% in 2008 to 16.7% in 2020.
In both cases, the EU targets to increase its energy supply security and also reduce the corresponding environmental impacts
(including greenhouse gas emissions) replacing imported and heavy polluting fossil fuels with domestic and clean
wind-based electricity. In this context, EU forecasts the addition of 250 GW onshore and 150 GW offshore (see also
Figure 41) by 2030, although it is quite possible that the addition of new offshore installations will be eventually much
more significant.

Germany

Spain

Denmark

EU-27

90
2010 EWEA Target (2005): 80 GW

80

Wind Power (GW)

70
2010 EWEA Target (2000): 60 GW

60
50
2010 EC Target (1997): 40 GW

40
30
20
10
0
1997 1998

1999

2000

2001 2002

2003 2004
Year

Figure 39 EU Wind Market Development along with EU targets.

2005

2006

2007 2008

2009 2010


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Wind Energy Contribution in the Planet Energy Balance and Future Prospects

Expectation to Meet the 230 GW Target

(New Installations in GW of 165 GW, 2009–2020)


25.1

26.8
5.5
7.3

Germany

5

23.3

Spain

UK
France

Italy
Poland

8

Sweden

10

22.8
11.8

19.6

Netherlands
Greece
Ireland
Other

Figure 40 Future targets of wind energy in the EU. Based on the data from Wind Energy the Facts (2010) Scenarios and targets. d­
energy-the-facts.org/ (accessed December 2010).

Meeting the 400 GW Target by 2030;
Onshore vs Offshore Capacity

450
Offshore
Onshore

Installed Capacity (GW)

400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50

20

0
20 8
09
20
1
20 0

1
20 1
1
20 2
1
20 3
1
20 4
15
20
1
20 6
17
20
18
20
1
20 9
20
20
2
20 1
2
20 2
23
20
2
20 4
2
20 5

26
20
2
20 7
2
20 8
29
20
30

0

Year
Figure 41 Meeting the EU targets for onshore and offshore wind energy installations. Based on the data from Wind Energy the Facts (2010) Scenarios
and targets. (accessed December 2010).

Moreover, according to long-term plans [108], 400 GW of wind power in the EU and 20% of the US electricity demand covered
by wind by 2030 [109], along with China requesting 150 GW installed by 2020 [110], set the scenery of wind power prospects and
challenge the target of 1000 GW globally by 2030. In this context, one should also note that
• Future of wind energy in the United States is directly related with the time frame dictated by Section 1603 RES grant program of
the Congress. Given the already existing capacity of 40.3 GW as well as the planned installation of 10 GW in the early 2011, the
target of 150 GW in 2020 seems both achievable and hard to accomplish.
• China has by 2010 installed 42.3 GW, thus the target of 150 GW may be pessimistic in view of the continuous energy
consumption increase of the local economy.
• In India, existence of a domestic industry and 65–70 GW of assessed wind potential along with 10% of RES capacity and 4–5% of
RES energy shares by 2012 are the main drivers of wind energy, with estimations calling for 2 GW yr−1 in the following period.
Considering such a growth rate, India wind power increase is expected to push the corresponding installed wind power between
30 and 40 GW by 2020.
• Wind potential for onshore wind energy capacity in Brazil has been assessed at 143 GW (at 50 m high), with the existing wind
power installations being just around 1 GW, thus underlining the opportunities for drastical development during the next years.

• At the end of 2008, Australia expanded the country RES target to 20% by 2020; hence, wind energy is expected to strongly
contribute to the implementation of the target set.
• South Africans will also turn to wind, since the major part of the 100 TWh produced by RES up to 2025 is to be assigned to wind power.


Wind Energy Contribution in the Planet Energy Balance and Future Prospects

37

2.02.10 Conclusions
The continuous increase of energy consumption encountered across the planet along with the techno-economic problems related
with the dominance of conventional fuels and the severe environmental impacts entailed by thermal power generation during
recent years, illustrate the importance of increased RES contribution in the planet’s energy balance. At this point, it should be
pointed out that the role of wind energy may be already granted as rather significant, while is expected to be critical during the
current decade.
On the basis of the available data, dynamics of wind power at the global energy scene during the last 30 years is illustrated, while
according to the targets set, the perspective of exceeding 1 TW of wind power installations by 2030 seems feasible, especially if
considering the challenges introduced by the need of each country to safeguard security of supply and promote clean power
technologies.
Besides that, although the leading role of the EU throughout the period of wind energy development has been designated, the
return of the United States and the tremendous growth of the wind energy industry in China are also reflected. On top of that, of
special interest is also the gradual adoption of wind energy by several countries of the developing world, which is clearly
demonstrating both the catholic character of wind power and its ability to largely substitute fossil-fueled power generation in the
years to come.

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Further Reading
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[8]
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[13]

Cocks FH (2009) Energy Demand and Climate Change: Issues and Resolutions. UK: Wiley.
Diesendorf M (2007) Greenhouse Solutions with Sustainable Energy. Sydney: UNSW Press.
Eggleston D and Stoddard F (1987) Wind Turbine Engineering Design. USA: Van Nostrand Reinhold.
Giddens A (2009) Politics of Climate Change. UK: Wiley.
Gipe P and Canter B (1997) Glossary of Wind Energy Terms. Denmark: Forlaget Vistoft.
Goodstein D (2004) Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil. New York: W. W. Norton & Company.
Johnson G (1985) Wind Energy Systems. New York: Prentice Hall.
Kaldellis, JK (ed.) (2010) Stand-Alone and Hybrid Wind Energy Systems: Technology, Energy Storage and Applications. UK: Woodhead. Publishing.
Kaldellis JK (2005) Wind Energy Management, 2nd edn. Athens, Greece: Stamoulis.
Leggett J (1999) The Carbon War: Global Warming and the End of the Oil Era. New York: Penguin.
Le Gourières D (1980) Énergie Éolienne: Théorie, Conception, et Calcul Pratique des Installations. Paris, France: Eyrolles.
Molly J-P (1990) Windenergie, 2nd edn. Karlsruhe, Germany: C.F. Müller.
Roberts P (2005) The End of Oil. The Decline of the Petroleum Economy and the Rise of a New Energy Order. London, UK: Bloomsbury Publishing.

Relevant Websites
– US Energy Information Administration.

– Official website of the European Union.

– American Wind Energy Association.

– Windstats Newsletter.

– International Energy Agency.

– RenewableUK. The voice of wind and marine energy.

– Bundesverband WindEnergie e.V.

– Canadian Wind Energy Association.

– Wind: New Zealand’s Energy.

– France Energie Eolienne.

– World Wind Energy Association.

– The European Wind Energy Association.

– Global Wind Energy Council

– Offshore wind energy.

– Lab of Soft Energy Applications and Environmental Protection, Technological Education, Institute of Piraeus.

– Center of Renewable Energy Sources and Saving.


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