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Decision Analysis Example
Blackbeard Phantom’s Fireworks is considering introducing two new bottle
rocket. The company can add both to the current line, neither or just one of the
two. The success of the product depends on consumers’ reactions. The reactions
can be summarised as good (30%), fair (50%) or poor (20%). The company’s
revenue in thousands of dollars, are estimated in the following pay-off table.
Decision
Probability
Neither
Product 1 only
Product 2 only
Both
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Good
30%
0
125
105
220
Payoffs table
State of nature
Fair
50%