Chapter 12
Fiscal Policy and the National Debt
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
121
Chapter Objectives
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The deflationary gap
The inflationary gap
The multiplier and its applications
Automatic stabilizers
Discretionary fiscal policy
Budget deficits and surpluses
The public debt
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
122
Fiscal Policy
• Fiscal policy is the manipulation of the
federal budget to attain price stability,
relatively full employment, and a
satisfactory rate of economic growth
– To attain these goals, the government must
manipulate its spending and taxes
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
123
Putting Fiscal Policy into
Perspective
• There was no such thing as fiscal policy
until John Maynard Keynes invented it
in the 1930s
– He maintained that
• The only way out of the Depression was to boost
aggregate demand by increasing government
spending
• If we ran a big enough budget deficit, we could
jumpstart the economy and, in effect, spend our
way out of the depression
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
124
Putting Fiscal Policy into
Perspective
• It’s important that the aggregate supply
of goods and services equals the
aggregate demand for goods and services
at just the level of spending that will
bring about full employment at stable
prices
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
125
Putting Fiscal Policy into
Perspective
• Equilibrium GDP tells us the level of
spending in the economy
• Fullemployment GDP tells us the level of
spending necessary to get the
unemployment rate down to 5% (which
we have been calling fullemployment)
• Fiscal policy is used to push equilibrium
GDP toward fullemployment GDP
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
126
The Deflationary Gap and the
Inflationary Gap
• Equilibrium GDP is the level of output at
which aggregate demand equals
aggregate supply
– Aggregate demand is the sum of all
expenditures for goods and services (that is,
C + I + G + Xn)
– Aggregate supply is the nation’s total output
of final goods and services
– So at equilibrium GDP, everything produced
is sold
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
127
The Deflationary Gap and the
Inflationary Gap
• Fullemployment GDP is the level of
spending necessary to provide full
employment of our resources
– If our plant and equipment is operating at
between 85 and 90% of capacity, that’s full
employment
– If only 5% of our labor force is unemployed,
that’s full employment
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
128
The Deflationary Gap & the Inflationary Gap
The Deflationary Gap
When the fullemployment
GDP is greater than the
equilibrium GDP, there is a
deflationary gap. How
much is it?
9
8
Deflationary gap
C + I + G + Xn
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
$1 trillion
2
1
2
3
4
Equilibrium GDP
5
6
7
8
9
Full-employment GDP
GDP (in trillions of dollars)
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
129
The Deflationary Gap & the Inflationary Gap
The Inflationary Gap
When equilibrium
GDP is greater
than full
employment GDP,
there is an
inflationary gap.
How large is it?
2,000
C + I + G + Xn
Inflationary gap
1,500
1,000
500
0
$200 trillion
500
500
1,000
1,500
Full-employment GDP
2,000
Equilibrium GDP
GDP (in trillions of dollars)
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
1210
Summary
• Equilibrium GDP is above the full
employment GDP
– Spending is too high
– Results in an inflationary gap
• Too eliminate the inflationary gap, we cut G
and/or raise taxes
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
1211
Summary
• Equilibrium GDP is less than full
employment GDP
– Spending is too low
– Results in a deflationary gap
• Too eliminate the deflationary gap, we raise G
and/or cut taxes
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
1212
The Multiplier and Its
Applications
• Any change in spending (C, I, or G) will
set off a chain reaction, leading to a
multiplied change in GDP
GDP = C + I + G + Xn
How much the multiplied change is
depends on the MPC and MPS
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
1213
Calculating the Multiplier
• Remember
MPC + MPS = 1, therefore, MPS = 1 MPC
1
Multiplier =
1 MPC
1
Multiplier =
MPS
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Because the multiplier
(like C) deals with
spending, 1/(1MPC)
is a more appropriate
formula)
1214
Calculating the Multiplier
• The MPC is .5. Find the multiplier
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1215
Calculating the Multiplier
(Continued)
• The MPC is .5. Find the multiplier
1
1
1
Multiplier = = = = 2
1 MPC
1 – .5 .5
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
1216
Calculating the Multiplier
StepbyStep Working of the Multiplier When MPC is .5
$1,000.00
$ 500.00
$ 250.00
$ 125.00
$ 62.50
$ 31.25
$ 15.625
$ 7.813
$ 3.906
$ etc.
$ etc.
$2,000.00
It is surely much easier to use the multiplier of 2
(2 X $1,000 = $2000) than to go through this
process and add up all the figures
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
1217
Calculating the Multiplier
(Continued)
• The MPC is .75. Find the multiplier
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
1218
Calculating the Multiplier
(Continued)
• The MPC is .75. Find the multiplier
1
1
1
Multiplier = = = = 4
1 MPC
1 – .75 .25
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
1219
Applications of the Multiplier
• The Multiplier is used to calculate the
effect of changes in C, I, or G on GDP
GDP = 2,500; Multiplier = 3; C rises by 10
What is the new level of GDP?
GDPNew = GDPInitial + (Change in spending X Multiplier)
GDPNew = 2500 + ( 10 x 3)
GDPNew = 2500 + ( 30)
GDPNew = 2530
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
1220
Applications of the Multiplier
• The Multiplier is used to calculate the
effect of changes in C, I, or G on GDP
GDP = X; Multiplier = 3; C rises by 10
What happens to GDP?
GDPNew = GDPInitial + (Change in spending X Multiplier)
GDPNew = X + ( 10 x 3)
GDPNew = X + ( 30)
GDP increases by 30
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
1221
Applications of the Multiplier
• The Multiplier is used to calculate the
effect of changes in C, I, or G on GDP
GDP = X; Multiplier = 7; G falls by 5
What happens to GDP?
GDPNew = GDPInitial + (Change in spending X Multiplier)
GDPNew = X + ( 5 x 7)
GDPNew = X + ( 35)
GDP decreases by 35
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
1222
Applications of the Multiplier
• How big is the multiplier (M)?
9
M = distance between the
equilibrium GDP and the full
employment GDP / by the gap
8
Deflationary gap
C + I + G + Xn
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
M = 2 / 2 = 1
2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Full-employment GDP
GDP (in trillions of dollars)
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
1223
Applications of the Multiplier
• How big is the multiplier (M)?
2,000
M = distance between the
equilibrium GDP and the full
employment GDP / by the gap
C + I + G + Xn
Inflationary gap
1,500
1,000
500
M = 500 / 200 = 2.5
0
500
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Full-employment GDP
GDP (in trillions of dollars)
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
1224
Removing the Deflationary Gap
9
8
C1 + I1 + G1 + Xn1
7
C + I + G + Xn
6
To remove the deflationary
gap we raise aggregate
demand from C+I+G+Xn
to C1+I1+G1+Xn1
5
4
3
2
1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Full-employment GDP
This pushes equilibrium
GDP to $7 trillion and
removes the deflationary
gap
GDP (in trillions of dollars)
Copyright 2002 by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
1225