Nỗ lực chống biến đổi khí hậu của thế giới và sự tham gia của Việt Nam

NO LlTC CHONG BIEN DOI KHI HAU CUA THE GIQfl
VA Stf THAM GIA CUA VIET NAM
THS. D O A N HAI Y E N . C N . LY Q U Y N H ANH
Ban Tdng hgp
Trung tdm Thdng tin vd Dg bdo kinh td - xd hgi qudc gia
Email:

2 . M d dau
Bien d d i khf hau la va'n de ciia
Climate change is a global issue and an issue of national security.

sU phat t r i e n , la thach thtic ldn

Coping with climate change is both urgent and strategic mission.

nha't d d i vdi mue tieu phat trien

Vietnam Is considered ds one of the countries most affected by climdle

ben

change, its consequence is serious, negatively affecting hunger allevi-

ChUdng t r i n h m o i trudng Lien Hop

vOng.

Ngay

25/10/2007,

ation and poverty reduction efforts as well os prospects of achieving

Q u d c (UNEP) edng bd "Bao cao

MDGs and national sustainable development Therefore, in 2014, it is

v i § n c a n h m d i trudng toan cau"

required to effectively implement national target programs lo respond

\

dupe coi la tai lieu tdng quan ve

lo climdle change and to actively and initKilively pdrticipdie in inter-

b i e n d d i k h i hau, nguon nUdc va

national efforts to protect Earth's air quality.

da d a n g sinh hpc tren Trai dat, da
dUa ra Idi c i n h bao: "Sif tan ptia
tai nguyen t h i e n nhien mot cacli

Td khda: Bien ddi khi h g u , c a t gidm khi nha kfnh; COP

cd he t h d n g da tdi ngUdng, khJ

1 . Tom tat

nang sdng cdn cua eae nen kinii

Mpt trong nhtfng sU kien khoa hpc ndi bat nha't tren the gidi trong

te bj t h a c h thtic nghiem trpng...".

n a m 2013 la ndng dp khi nha kfnh trong khi quyen dat mUe cao ky

Mdi

luc, vUdt mdc 400 p p m (gidi han an todn tdi da cho phep la 350 p p m ) .

n g h i e m trpng, Trai dat dang bj tan

trudng

dang

bj

huy hoai

T h a i Binh

pha ngay mpt nang ne. Nong dp

DUdng da phai dd'i mat vdi edn bao Hayan khiing khie'p nha't trong ljch

CO2 trong khf quyen cao ky luc la

su'. Trong

mpt trong n h i i n g sU kien khoa hpc

Cung trong n a m 2 0 1 3 , nhieu qudc gia khu vUc chau A

bdi canh d d , cupc hpp lan thU 19 (C0P19) cua cae Ben

t h a m gia Cdng Udc khung ciia Lien H d p Qud'c ve Bien ddi khf hau td

ndi

bat

nha't trong nSm 2013:

ehUe tai Vac-sa-va (Ba Lan) trong thang 11/2013 dUde coi la mpt tia hy

Trong t h a n g 5/2013, ndng dp khi

v p n g mdi cho viec giai quyet cac va'n de ve mdi trUdng va bien ddi khf

CO2 do dUde trong khi quyen ciia

hau.

Trai da't da dat de'n ngUdng k^

M u c dfch eiia bai viet nay la tdng quan nhiJng no life eiia the gidi

luc, khi lan dau tien trong Ijch sul

trong cupc chie'n bien ddi khi hau qua 19 hdi nghj (COP) tif sau khi cac

loai

nUde ky ket Cdng Udc khung ciia Lien Hdp Qud'c ve bien ddi khf hau

(parts per m i l l i o n

ngUdi vUdt mdc 400 ppm

it

thang

1 phan trieu).

(1992) de'n nay. Ddng t h d i , bai viet cung de cap de'n sU t h a m gia tich

Ch?

sau, trong thang

cUc ciia Viet N a m trong viee thUc hien nhOng cam ket qudc te ve han

9 / 2 0 1 3 , U y ban lien ehfnh phii ve

che khf t h i i gay hieu Ung nha kinh - dUdc cho la nguyen nhan sau xa

b i e n d d i k h i hau (IPCC) - cd quan

dSn tdi cae hien tUdng thdi tie't cUc doan n h u han han, lu lut, nUde b i e n

qudc te d a n h gia tac ddng moi

dang.

t r u d n g , da c h i ra rang tac dpng

70

THONG TIN & DU BAD KINH TE - XA HOI SO 96+97 (1.2014)


jm^GXUJ[JVGlJPJVG02014
cua con ngudi tdi he thdng khf
hau la ro rang hdn bao gid het.
Hien 95% c h i c c h i n rang con
ngUdi la nguyen nhan khie'n khi
hau trai da't ndng len.
Theo mpt so' ket q u i nghien
ciiu, vdi dien bien nhU hien nay
thi den nam 2047, nhiet dp eua
phin Idn eae khu vUe tren Trai
da't se vUdt qua "ngUdng bien ddi
khi hau" (miic khi hau khac
nghiet nha't tUng dUde ghi nhan
trong vdng 150 nam) va den nam
2069, lUdng khf thdi gay hieu Ung

nha kinh tU eae hoat dpng ddt
chay nhien lieu hda thach se duy
tri d mUc dn djnh. Ndng dp khf
CO2 trong khi quyen se tang tii
400 ppm len 936 ppm vao nam
2100, khien nhiet dp Trai da't
tang trung binh 3,7°C trong the ky
nay. Trong khi dd, neu mUe dp
phat t h i i khi gay hieu Ung nha
kinh cham lai, thi thdi diem x i y
ra sU bien ddi khi hau ndi tren cd
the la vao nam 2067, ndng dp
CO2 trong khi quyen se d miic 538
ppm vao nam 2100 va nhiet dp
Trai da't tang trung binh khoang
1,8°C, chua tinh den mUc tang
0,7°C tif khi eupe Cach mang
cdng nghiep d i l n ra vao nam
2000.
NgUdi ta cung sdm nhan ra
dUdc hau qua tat yeu cua viec
phat trien ndng ma khdng quan
tam tdi mdi trUdng nay. Hang logt
cac cuoc hpi dam, dd'i thoai ca'p
cao, da phUdng giuTa eae qud'c gia

thap nien 90 eda the id/ XX eho den nay. Tuy nhien, "be tac" la tinh
trang thudng tha'y va ludn deo dudi eae hdi nghj nay. Cac cupc hpp ve
tinh trang bien ddi khf hgu ludn gap khd khan trong viec tim kiem sU
ddng thuan giUa eae qud'c gia phat trien va eae qudc gia dang phat trien

tren the gidi, trong khi dd, lUpng khf thai gay hieu Ung nha kinh dang
ngay cang tang len. Trd ngai chfnh trong eae cudc dam phan nay xua't
phat tif ldi fch kinh te eiia cae ben tham gia. Cae nha lanh dao ludn rat
can trpng trong va'n de thue cac bon va cat g i i m khi nha kfnh.
TrUdc tinh hinh dd, cude hpp lan thU 19 (COPl 9) eiia cac Ben tham
gia Cdng Udc khung eiia Lien Hdp Qudc ve Bien ddi khf hau tai Vaesa-va (Ba Lan) trong thang 11/2013 dUde coi la mpt tia hy vpng mdi eho
viec g i i i quyet cae va'n de ve mdi trUdng va bien ddi khf hau. Ndi dung
ciia COPl 9 lan nay dupe danh gia la dae biet quan trpng bdi nam 2013
la mdc khdi diem eho viee thifc hien Nghi djnh thU Kyoto giai doan 11.
Ben canh dd, day edn la nam thti hai eae nUde bUde vao thio luan
Khudn khd phap ly toan cau mdi dupe khdi xUdng tai COPl 7 d Nam Phi
nam 2011, dU kien se xong tai C0P21 d Pari nam 2015 - thdi diem ma
ehfnh phii eac nUdc se p h i i nha't trf ve mdt thda thuan toan eau bat
budc thay the Nghj djnh thu Kyoto ve bien ddi khf hau nham han che
hien tUpng Trai Da't ndng len.
3. Bdi canh dien ra Hpi nghj COPl 9
3.1. Cdng adc khung cua Lien Hgp Qudc ve Bien ddi khi hau
(UNFCCC) va Hgi nghi thudng nien cua cic ben tham gia Cdng Udc
(COP)
Cdng Ude khung eiia Lien Hdp Qud'c ve bien ddi khf hau la luat qudc
te chinh dieu ehinh eae va'n de bien ddi khi hau, dUde ky ket thang
6/1992 tai Hdi nghj Phat trien va Mdi trUdng Lien Hpp Qud'c tai Rio de
Janeiro (Braxin) va cd hieu life tU thang 3/1994. Muc tieu eudi cimg cua
Cdng Udc la dn djnh ndng dp khi nha kinh trong khi quyen d mUe an
toan. De dat dUde muc tieu nay, ta't ci eac nude tham gia phai ed cam
ket chung ve nhufng hanh ddng chdng lai sU bien ddi khf hau, dieu
ehinh theo dieu kien eda ttfng qud'c gia nham trien khai thUc hien Cdng
Ude.
Cdng Ude chia cae nUdc tham gia theo 2 nhdm:
- Cae ben Phu lue 1: bao gdm eae nude edng nghiep, nhOng nUde ve

mat Ijch sii dUde coi la cd nhieu eac hoat dpng gay ra sU bien ddi khf
hSu nhU: 6xtraylia, Phap, DUe, Anh, Hoa Ky,...
- Cae ben ngoai Phu luc I chii yeu bao gom cac nUdc dang phat trien
nhU: Viet Nam, Achentina, Dambia, Uganda, Tonga,...

tren the gidi ve nhUng vS'n de nhU

Hdi nghj eac ben tham gia (COP) dUde d i l n ra thudng nien la eupe

d n h i l m mdi trUdng, tinh hinh

hpp quan trpng nha't eda UNFCCC. Dai dien ciia ta't ci cac nUde thanh

bien ddi khi hau se d i l n ra nhu

vien (thudng la cae Bp trUdng Mdi trUdng) cimg tham gia qua trinh

the nao, tac dpng tdi eon ngUdi ra

thUdng t h i o ve cac va'n de mdi trUdng va cam ket thUc hien eac quyet

sao,... da lien tuc dUde td chiic tif

djnh dUdc dUa ra. Tif nam 1995 de'n nay, COP da d i l n ra 19 lan d cae

sa' 96+97 (1.2014)

THONG TIN & DU BAD KINH TE - XA HQI

71

thanh phd thupc cac qudc gia khac nhau. Ndi dung xuyen sudt cac ky
COP ludn thd'ng nha't vdi mue tieu eua Cdng Udc khung eiia Lien Hdp
Qudc ve Bien ddi khi hau, dd la nham "dn djnh ndng do khi nha kinh
trong khi quyen d mdc an toan". Cac cupc thio luan xoay quanh mdt
sd va'n de then chdt nhU: thUdng mai eae bon, Nghj djnh thU Kyoto (ket
qua eua C0P3 tai Nhat Ban nam 1995, vdi rang bude phap ly ve eat
giim phat t h i i cho 37 nUdc phat trien va eae nUdc cd nen kinh te
chuyen ddi va cd hieu lUc ke tU nam 2005), hiep Ude mdi trUdng mdi
thay the eho Nghj djnh thU Kyoto,...
3.2. Bit ddng quan diem trong COPl9: cam ket hay ddng gdp
Hpi nghj lan thU 19 cac Ben tham gia Cdng Ude khung ciia Lien Hdp
Qudc ve Bien ddi khi hau (COPl 9) va Hpi nghj lan thU 9 eac Ben tham
gia Nghj djnh thU Kyoto (CMP9) da diln ra tai thu do Vac-sa-va (Ba Lan)
tif ngay 11-23/11/2013.
D i l n ra ehi it ngay sau khi sieu bao Haiyan - mot trong nhUng cdn
bao manh nha't tU trUdc de'n nay tan pha nghiem trpng mien Trung
Philippin, Hdi nghj lan nay da dat ra yeu eau ca'p thie't la can p h i i
hanh dpng de ddi phd vdi tinh trang bien ddi khi hau. Day la nguyen
nhan gdc r l - theo eac nghien cUu khoa hpc gan day, dSn de'n cac hien
tUdng thdi tie't cUe doan nhu bao lii, han han. Trong thdi gian hdi nghj,
TrUdng doan dam phan ciia Philippin - dng Naderev Yeb Sao va nhieu
nha hoat ddng mdi trUdng de'n tU cae qud'c gia khae nhU: Xri Lanea,
Ukraina, Ba Lan, An Dp va My tham gia hpi nghj cung tuyen bd tuyet
thUe de iing hd Philippin keu gpi cpng ddng the gidi phii cd hanh ddng
quyet liet nham ngan chan tinh trang bien ddi khi hau dang d i l n ra
ngay cang khde liet, ddng thdi nham hd'i thiic cae nUde tham gia hpi
nghj dat dUde mpt thda thuan cd y nghia.

Hinh 1: Hdi nghj C0P19 tai Vac-sa-va, Ba Lan

72

THQNG TIN SDU BAD KINH TE-XA HQI So 96+97 (1.2014)

Cac cude dam phan tai COPl9
da suyt dd vd neu khdng dupc keo
dai them mpt ngay va hpi nghj
lan nay da chi ed dupe budc tien
d "phut 89" khi eae nha dam
phan quyet djnh thay ddi cum ttf
"cam ket" (commitments) thanh
"ddng gop" (contributions). Trung
Qud'c va An Dp cho rang, sif thay
ddi ve mat tU ngU nay giiip ho co
the md rpng pham vi hdn khi de
xua't cae mue tieu cat giim phat
t h i i . Ban dau, Trung Qudc va An
Dp khang khang cho rang cac
qudc gia giau hdn can phii ap
dung cae muc tieu nghiem ngat
hdn, trong khi cae nUde phUdng
Tay hy vpng eae nen kinh te mfii
ndi thUe hien nhiem vu ciia minh
de g i i m d nhilm toan eau.
4. NhOng ket qua chinh cua
hpi nghj COPl 9
4.1. NhQng ket qua dat dugc
Cac Ben da thdng nhi't difclc

mdt so du t h i o quyet djnh ve cac
yeu td ed b i n eua Thda thuan
n i m 2015 nhUng mdi edn sd lifdc
va mang tinh nguyen tac ban dau.
Cae nude phat trien cting chiia
dUa ra cae cam ket ddng gdp tai
chinh rd rang, minh bach cho thdi
ky 2013-2020. NhU vay, Thoa
thuan 2015 se la thda thuan dau
tien mang tfnh trdi budc ve vi$c
eat g i i m lUdng khf t h i i tif viec sii
dung than da, gas va khf ddt. Mac
du ehi la mpt thda thuan kha
khiem tdn, song eung cd the coi 1^
su den dap phan nao cho nhOng
no lUc tuyet thifc cua trUdng doan
dam phan Philippin - tac gii ciia
bai phat bieu chan ddng trong
phien khai mac COPl 9 ngay
11/11/2013.


Mi^GXUJjVGlJPJVG020I4
Hdi nghj da dat dUdc sU nha't
tri rang ta't e i eic nUde, ehU
khdng rifing nhOfng nude giau, se
ed "nhiing ddng gdp rieng" nham
gdp phan eat g i i m khi t h i i CO2.
Cae nude p h i i dUa ra ke hoach
cat g i i m khi t h i i ciia minh vao

quy 1/2015 de chuan bj cho vi§c
ky ket thda thugn v i o cudi nSm
dd tgi Hpi nghj Pari (Phap). Day
se la thda thuSn dau tien rang
bude ta't e i cac qudc gia n h i m
hgn che lUdng khi t h i i doe hgi
t h i i ra bau khi quyen Trai da't.
Ben canh dd, Hdi nghj lan nay
nha't tri thie't lap mpt ed che giiip
eae nUde d l bj tdn hgi vi nhufng
hien tUdng thdi tiet ciic doan do
bien ddi khi hgu gay ra. Mpt g i i i
phap eu the ma Hpi nghj lan nay
dgt dupe la mdt thda thuan ve c i c
quy tac b i o ve va duy tri eae khu
rUng nhiet ddi
la phdi ciia tU
nhien.
Ket q u i m i COPl 9 dgt dUpe,
xet cho cimg eh? l i sii nhUdng bp
ciia cac nUdc dang phat trien, khi
m i hp da tif bd yeu cau ban dau
rang chi cac nUde phat trien mdi
p h i i dat ra muc tieu c i t g i i m khi
t h i i . Trong sudt thdi gian dam
phan, eic nUde dang phat trien va
phat trien ludn ba't ddng siu sac
ve trach nhiem cat g i i m khi t h i i ,
cac nude p h i t trien khdng nhang
khdng cd hanh dpng mgnh me

hdn trong cat g i i m khi t h i i , m i
tham chi:

kinh tU 25% xudng chi cdn 3,8% tU nay tdi n i m 2020 vdi ly do phai
ddng cL^a eac Id phan Ung hgt nhan va chuyen sang sif dung nhien lieu
hda thgeh sau cae t h i m hpa dpng da't v i sdng than;
- 6xtraylia tham chi khdng cii dgi bieu ca'p bd trUdng tdi hdi nghj va
cd the se ha muc tieu g i i m lUdng khi t h i i do mdt chinh phu bio thii
chuan bj len nam quyin;
- Cdn Canada riit lui hoan toin khdi Nghj djnh thU Kyoto, vdn quy
djnh cie n l n kinh te phat trien se ha mUe phat t h i i CO2 xudng dudi
mUe nam 1990.
Hdi nghj eung da thdng qua eac quyet djnh trpng yeu ve viee tiep
tuc thUe hien Durban Platform, Quy khi hau xanh va tai ehfnh dai han,
Khung thUe hien REDD-I-, Vic-sa-va ed che qudc te ve thiet hai va cae
quyet djnh khae. Vi du, vao ngdy 21/11/2013, sing kien cinh quan lam
nghiep b i n vting thupc Quy BioCarbon do Ngan hang Qud'c te (WB)
quin ly d i chinh thUe ra mat vdi tdng so vdn cam ket ban dau la 280
trieu USD (trong dd Na Uy ddng gdp 135 trieu USD, Anh 120 trieu USD
va My 25 trieu USD). Mue tieu eiia sang kien nay la nham chi t r i eho
ket q u i giim phit t h i i khi nha kinh do i p dung cae bien phip, md
hinh bio ve, phat trien rUng v i sif dung da't b i n vUng theo each tiep
can cinh quan (Landscape).
Hdi nghj l l n n i y , ve cd b i n da bUde dau dgt nen mdng cho eae
cudc dam phan tiep theo se dien ra vao nam 2014 tgi Lima (Peru) va
tgi Paris (Phip) n i m 2015, nham ehd'ng lai tinh trgng Trai Dat dang
ndng dan len. Ket q u i ciia COPl 9 ciing gdp phan t h i o gd be tac giUa
eae nUde p h i t trien v i c i c nUde dang phit trien ve vi'n d l chia s i trich
nhiem trong vi$c hgn che khi t h i i gay hieu iing nha kinh, vd'n dUdc cho
la nguyen nhan gdc r l d i n de'n c i c hien tUdng thdi tie't eifc doan nhU

hgn ban, lu lut, nUde bien ding.
Viec chuyen giao edng nghe than thien vdi khi hgu tif nhQng nUde
nam edng nghe (thudng la eae qud'c gia p h i t trien) sang nhUng nUdc
can cdng ngh$ (thUdng la c i e qudc gia dang phat trien) v i n edn gap
p h i i rao c i n ve quyen sd hOTu tri tue, lam cho gia cua cdng nghe mdi
ra't eao, khdng phii hpp vdi k h i nang eua eac nude ngheo. Tgi Hdi nghj,
e i c nude dang phat trien ddi hdi p h i i xoa bd mpi rao ein ve quyen sd
hiJu tri tu$ ddi vdi eac edng ngh§ than thi^n vdi khf hgu - day la d i l u
ma c i c nUde phat trien khdng mudn thUc hien.
4.2: Nhiing han che cua Hgi nghj
De dd'i phd vdi bien ddi khf h i u , tai ehinh la dieu kien tien quyet
cho mpi nd lUc, d i e biet la trUdc tinh hinh hien nay, moi nam loai

Cac nUdc nhU: Oxtriylia,
Nhat B i n va Canada deu da ha
muc tieu ehd'ng bien ddi khi

ve eon ngUdi va tai sin do c i c hogt dpng thien tai - i n h hudng triie tiep

hgu;

bdi bien ddi khi hau gay ra. Tuy nhien, va'n de hd trd tai ehfnh eho cac

ngUdi deu p h i i dd'i mat vdi nhiing tdn that va thiet hai vd cimg to Idn

Nhat B i n se ha mue tieu

nUdc dang p h i t trien, dae biet la eac nUde ngheo trong eupe chie'n

g i i m khf t h i i gay hi^u ufng n h i

chdng bien ddi khf hgu lai dang la mdt trong nhOng va'n de gay tranh

sa' 96+97 (1.2014)

THONG TIN & DU B A D KINH TE - XA HQI

73


cai gay gat nhat trong nhilu hdi nghj eung nhU cic cudc d i m phan gan
day.
Ddi vdi nhieu nUde ngheo, sU tan p h i eiia thien tai dgt ra yeu cau
ca'p thiet p h i i tang cUdng hd trd tai chinh de bii dap nhUng thiet hgi dj)
thien tai gay ra. Theo WB, thiet hai ddi vdi kinh tetoan c l u do thdi tiet
cue doan gay ra da tang len g i n 200 ty- USD mdi nam trong mdt thgp
k^ qua va dif bao se edn tang hdn nOa khi tinh trang bien ddi khi hgu
ngay cing d i l n bien xiu.
Rd net nh^t va chan thUe nha't la ngay trUde them COPl 9, mdt
logt eac qudc gia khu vUc chau A - Thai Binh DUdng d i p h i i ddi mat
vdi edn bao Hayan khiing khiep nha't trong Ijch siif. Theo thdng ke
chUa d i y dii, rieng tgi Philippin, edn bao nay da lam hdn 5.000
ngUdi chet, hdn 23.000 ngUdi bj thUdng va gin 2.000 ngUdi ma't tich,
thiet hgi ve kinh te Udc tinh khoing 14 t^ USD (theo ngudn tin ciia
AFP).
Tgi cae eupe d i m phan hdm 20/11/2013 d Vac-sa-va, nhieu nUdc
dang phat trien cao budc cac nUde giiu khdng the hien thien ehi trong
viec t h i o luan ve hd trd t i i chinh, hoac va'n d l bu dap nhOng thiet hgi
do bien ddi khi hau gay ra ddi vdi cae nUde ngheo. Cae nUdc dang
phat trien mong mudn eae nUde edng nghiep giU cam ket ma hp dUa

ra nam 2009 ve viee se tang tien tai trd len 100 ty USD mdi nam cho
den nam 2020 n h i m giiip eac nude dang phat trien Ung phd vdi tinh
trgng bien ddi khi hgu. Tuy nhien, cae nUde phat trien da khdng dUa
ra bat ky cam ket nao ve viec vien trd cho cae nUde ngheo trong cudc
chien ehdng bien ddi khi hau. Hoa Ky v i nhieu nude p h i t trien khic

eung tuf chdi thdng bio ke hosich
eu the lam the nao de tang s6
t i l n vien trd cho eac nude dang
p h i t trien len mUe 100 t^
USD/nam cho tdi nam 2020.
Tai e i c cude dam phan, Nhat
B i n cam ket t i i trd 16 t^ USD
trong 3 nam tdi, edn Na Uy, Anh
va Hoa Ky eung cam ket ddng gop
280 trieu USD de duy tri phat
trien rtfng. Tuy vay cho den nay,
nhufng cam ket ciia c i c nudc phat
trien mdi chi dUng Igi d Idi noi va
hp chUa dUa ra each thUe vien tro
giiip eae nUde dang phat trien,
nha't la c i e nUde ngheo.
Mdt nghien ciiu mdi day cho
tha'y, the gidi dang chiing kien sif
thut lili trong nd life ban che sil
a'm ndng toan cau do sU thay doi
chinh sach ve cat giim khi thii ttl
mpt sd nUde nhu Nhgt Bin hay
Oxtriylia. Theo nghien ciiu cua
Vien Nghien eUu Potsdam ve inh

hudng ciia bien ddi khi hau va
H i n g Tu van Ecofys eiia Phan
Lan, quyet djnh mdi day ciia Nhat
B i n v l viee hg thi'p muc tieu cat
g i i m khi t h i i gay hieu ting nhJ
kinh vao nSm 2020 khie'n cho the
gidi khd dgt muc tieu giuf nhiet do
t r i i da't tang trung binh d mile
dudi 2°C.
5. Si/ tham gia cua Vi?t Nam
trong no li/c ehd'ng bien ddi khi
h^u
5.1. Anh hifdng cua bidn doi
khi hiu den Viet Nam

Hinh 2: Cinh tUdng tang thUdng d Tacloban (Philippin) sau can
bao Hayan

74

THONG TIN & DU BAD KINH Tt - XA HQI So 96+97 (1.2014)

Theo du b i o eiia cic chuyen
gia tren the gidi, Viet Nam la mpt
trong 5 qud'c gia bj inh hiidng
nang ne nha't eua bien ddi khi
hau. Hau q u i ciia bien ddi khi
hau ddi vdi Viet Nam la nghiem

Ml^GXUAjVGIjiPJVG02014
f o n g , nguy cd hien hOu t i e dpng
den mue tieu xoa ddi g i i m ngheo,
thUe hien eae muc tieu thien nien
ky va phat trien ben vOng cua da't
nUdc. Mpt nghien eUu mdi cdng
bd ciia Vien Nghien eUu Q u i n ly
Kinh te Trung Udng (Bp Ke hoach
v i Dau tu) eho biet, CDP eua Viet
Nam ed the g i i m tdi 2,5% do
bien ddi khi hau. Cac ITnh
vUe/nganh d l bj tdn thUdng va
chju t i e ddng mgnh me nha't eiia
bien ddi khi hgu la tai nguyen
nude, sUe khoe con ngUdi, ndng
nghiep, an ninh lUdng thUe v i da
dgng sinh hpc.
Bien ddi khi hgu i n h hUdng tnic
tiep va giin tiep de'n nguon tai
nguyen nUdc: ngudn nUdc mat
khan hiem trong mua khd gay hgn
han va qua dU thUa trong miia mUa
gay lu lut; ngudn nUde ngam bj suy
giim d i n den can kiet do khai thac
q u i mUe va thie'u ngudn bd sung.
Nganh ndng nghiep eung se
chju i n h hUdng trUc tiep ctia bien
ddi khi hgu: Do nhiet dp tang eao,
viing trdng cay nhiet ddi ed xu
hudng di chuyen ve phia Ble;

vimg trdng cay dn ddi cd xu hUdng
g i i m ve dien tieh. Hgn ban va Iti
lut eung gdp phan i n h hUdng de'n
dien tieh canh t i e . Nganh lam
nghiep bj i n h hUdng do dien tfch
rUng nggp man bj thu hep bdi
nude bien dang.
Da dgng sinh hoc g i i m do cae
loai kem chju hgn h i n , nggp lut
cd xu hudng bj tuy^t chung, cac
loai CO k h i nSng chdng chju han
han, lu lut se phat trien. Ben canh
dd, ngn chay rifng va sau b$nh se
i n h hudng de'n nganh lam

nghiep.

Ve mat sUc khde con ngUdi, mdi nguy hiem tif djch benh se tang
len do nhiet dp eao tgo mdi trUdng thuan ldi hdn cho sii phat trien eiia
cae virut v i eac t i c nhan truyen benh. Cac hien tUdng thdi tiet eUc
doan ed the d i n den viee tang sd lUdng cac ea till vong ya biing nd
djch benh.
5.2. Sii tham gia chdng bien ddi khi hiu cua Viet Nam
Viet Nam tham gia UNFCCC ngay 11/6/1992 va phe chuan UNFCCC ngay 16/11/1994. La mdt trong nhi/ng nUdc dang phat trien, Viet
Nam da nhanh chdng tham gia cam ket vdi e i c td chUc qudc te, nhu
Nghj djnh Kyoto, tham gia dU an Cd che phat trien sgeh (Clean
Development Mechanism - CDM),... Viet Nam la thanh vien thudc Ben
khdng thudc Phu lue I eiia UNFCCC, tufc la chUa cd nghTa vu g i i m phat
t h i i khi nha kinh, nhUng se p h i i thUc hien mdt sd nghia vu chung nhU:
xay dung eae thdng bao qudc gia, kiem ke khi nha kinh, xay dUng va

danh gia eac phUdng an g i i m nhe khi nha kinh va thich Ung vdi bien

ddi khi hgu.
Viet Nam eung da tieh cUc tham gia cae hpi nghj COP vdi mong
mudn thiie day tien trinh dam p h i n va tien tdi dgt nhflng thda thuan
toan dien gifla cae qudc gia trong viee Ung phd vdi bien ddi khi hau.
Trong bdi c i n h mpt hiep djnh toan cau cho 2015 v i n cdn ehUa rd rang,
trong khudn khd hdi nghj COPl 9, Vifet Nam da cd cac cudc hpi nghj
rieng I I nham thiic day k h i nang ehdng bien ddi khi hau theo tflng
nhdm nUde nhd. Chang hgn nhU Viet Nam da ciing vdi Nhgt Bin va
mpt so nude tien hanh dang cai hpi nghj trao ddi kinh nghiem trong va'n
de chia se tin chi Carbon. Mdt cd che cho phep eac nUde p h i t trien
chuyen giao cae cdng nghe than thien mdi trUdng sang eac nUdc dang
p h i t trien, ddi Igi lay lUdng tfn ehi khf t h i i , thUc chat la de dUde gia
tang gidi han mtife phat t h i i vdn dUdc quy djnh theo Nghj dinh thU
Kyoto.
Mdt ngay trUde khi ket thue hdi nghj, Viet Nam da len tieng keu
gpi mdt eupe c i c h mang trong nhan thtirc de thiic da'y cac nd lUc bao
ve trai da't. Dai dien eho phai doan Viet Nam, ThU trUdng Bd Tai
nguyen va Mdi trUdng da phat di Idi c i n h tinh tdi eac phai doan tham
du, keu gpi e i c nUde hay cd nhflng hanh ddng thdng thai bdi t h i m
hpa cua bien ddi khi hau da d trUdc mat: "Nhi/ng nd lUc cua chung
ta, cho tdi hiSn nay la khdng the dim bio dugc muc tieu han chd
tang 2 C. Khi nang Trii dit se tang 4 C vdi nhitng tham hga nguy
hiem cd the trd thanh sU thuc... Mdt thoa thuan phip I'y toan cau
mdi da dugc thai nghen ky ludng. Viy th) hay ddng dinh mit dl
ddng lUc cua minh va hay tidn tdi hien thilc boa no. Cic qudc gia
phit trien, hay tang cam kdt cit giam khi thai cua minh vao thing
7/2014 ia cham nhit"
Theo dng Koos Neefjes - Cd van ve Bien ddi khi hau eiia UNDP tai

Viet Nam: "Trong mdt sd vin de thudc khudn khd dim phin nay, Vidt

sa'96+97 (1.2014) TFOMGTIN &D1JBAD KINH TE-XA HQI

75


Nam cd the ddng vai trd trung
tam, vi du chUdng trinh giim
thidu khi thai nha kinh thdng qua
trdng riing va phuc hdi rdng. Viet
Nam kha tidn bg so vdi cac nUdc
khac trong vin dd nay, Viet Nam
da dUa ra nhdng kinh nghiem va
y tudng eua riing minh trong
nhilng nam qua, trong dd cd xay
dung ngudn lUc, hieu can phai
lam gl va giai thich cho cae qudc
gia, ca phit trien lin dang phit
tridn md hinh dd nen nhU thd
nao trong tUdng lai"
Ben cgnh dd, Vi?t Nam cung
dang nd life trong viee ndi lugt
hda cie cam ket qud'c te ve mdi
trudng va ehdng bien ddi khi hgu.
Theo Chie'n lUpe qudc gia ve bien
ddi khi hau dUde Thd tUdng phe
duy^t thing 12/2011 thi g i i m
phit t h i i khi nha kinh dUdc dat ra
nhu mdt nhi^m vy chie'n lUdc.

Chien lUpe qudc gia ve tang
trudng xanh dUde Thii tUdng phe
duy^t thing 9/2012 eung nhan
djnh tang trUdng xanh l i mdt npi
dung quan trpng eiia phat trien
ben vflng vdi mgc tieu g i i m
cUdng dp phat t h i i khi nha kinh
8-10% giai doan 2011-2020 so
vdi miie n i m 2010; giim lUdng
phit t h i i khi nha kinh trong eic
hogt dpng nang lUdng tfl 10-20%
so vdi phUdng i n phit trien binh
thudng. Nghj quyet sd 24-NQ/TW
ngay 03/6/2013 eda Ban Cha'p
hinh Trung Udng Ding (khda XI)
eung x i c djnh rd nhi$m vu trpng
tam trong thdi gian tdi la thiic day
chuyen ddi md hinh t i n g trUdng
g i n vdi cd ca'u nen kinh te theo
hudng tang trUdng xanh va phit
trien ben vflng.

7S

6. Ket luan
Bien ddi khi hau la van de toan cau va ciia mdi qudc gia. Qng pho
vdi bien ddi khi hau vfla la van de cap bach, vfla ed tinh chien litoc
lau dai. Viet Nam la mpt trong nhflng qudc gia chju i n h hudng nang
ne nha't eda bien ddi khi hau. Hau q u i eiia bien ddi khi hau ddi vfli
nude ta la het sUc nghiem trpng, nguy cd hien hflu t i e ddng den mgc

tieu xoi ddi giim ngheo, thUe hien cae mue tieu thien nien k^ va phat
trien ben vflng ciia da't nUde. Chfnh vi vgy, bUde vao nam 2014, chung
ta c i n tiep tuc trien khai hieu q u i eae ehUdng trinh mue tieu qudc gia
ve Ung phd vdi bien ddi khi h i u eung nhU ehu dpng v i tich cUc tham
gia cac nd life cOa cpng ddng qudc te nham b i o ve he thdng khi hau
Trii da't.D
I A I IIEU THAM K H A O
1. Bp Tii nguyen va Mdi trUdng (2000), Cdng Udc khung ciia Lien
Hgp Qud'c ve bidn ddi khi hiu (ban djch nguyen bin tit tidng Anh),

H i Ndi.
2. Bp Tii nguyen va Mdi trUdng (2008), A^pf sd van bin quy pham
phap luat thUe hien Cdng Ude khung cua Lidn Hgp Qudc ve bidn dSi
khi hiu va Nghj djnh thu Kyoto tai Vidt Nam, Ha Ndi.
3. Bp Tai nguyen va Mdi trUdng (2009), Cae kjch bin bidn doi khi
hau cho Viet Nam.
4. Vi$n Nghien eUu Q u i n ly Kinh te Trung Udng v i Vien Nghien ctiu
Kinh te Phat trien The gidi, Dgi hpc Copenhagen (Dan Mach), 2012,
Bao cao "Tic ddng eua bidn ddi khi hau tdi tang trudng va phit triin
kinh td d ViSt Nam".
5. Lien Hpp Qud'c (2010), Vi'^f Nam vi hinh ddng bidn ddi khi hiu:
nhdng Uu tidn chien luge.
6. Ngan hang Phit trien chiu A (2012), Tac ddng kinh td eua biSn
ddi khi hiu tai Ddng Nam A: Bio cio khu vUe - Nhdng diem noi bJt.
7. Doin H i i Yen (2013), Phit trien cic khu kinh te ven bidn d Viet
Nam trong bdi cinh bidn ddi khi hiu, Bai dang trong Ky yeu hpi thio
khoa hpc qud'c te"Kinh td hgc bidn ddi khi hiu va gdi •y chinh sich
ddi vdi Vidt Nam" do TrUdng Dai hpc Kinh te qud'c d i n v i Ausaid td
ehfle tgi Ha Npi ngay 01/3/2013 (tr. 555-566).
8- nov 2013/sessinn/7767.php.

9. />ID=130481 /i,Code=001 HI 3n4«1 19/11/13
10- />ve-bien-dni-khi-haii/7q3qftl um/, 26/11/13
^1http://orea mard.gnvvn/Content/COP-19-Mong-doi-nhunJ:
guyet-dinh-quan-trnnp/?ni 3/11/19/320?? new;
^2- />nam-201 3-871447 hf,>, 30/i 2/13

THONG TIN & DU BAD KINH TE - XA HQI So 96+97 (1.2014)