CÁC MÔ HÌNH TÍNH TOÁN ĐÁNH GIÁ SỰ THIỆT HẠI VỀ KINH TẾ DO TÁC ĐỘNG CỦA MÔI TRƯỜNG Ở CÁC KHU CÔNG NGHIỆP

DAI HOC QUOC GIA HA NOI

TRI/ONG DAI HOC KHOA HOC TLTNHIEN

I TAI
(Ca^p Dai hoc Quoc gia)

CAC MO HiNH TOAN

OANH GIA

SLTTHier HAI VE KINH
•

•

•

TE DO TAC DONG COA MOI TRLfCING 6 CAC KHU
•

CONG NGHIEP
Ma sd: QT - 01 - 27
Chu tri: PGS.TS.Chu Dure
Khoa Toan Ca Tin hoc

1. GS.TS. Tran Van Nhung
2. TS. Dang Dinh Chau
3. TS. Le Dinh Dinh
4. Ths. Nguyen Xuan Trieu
5. PGS.TS. Nguyen Huu Ngu

6. PGS.TS. Trdn Khdc Hidp

DT/eeij-4
Hanoi 12-2002


NOIDUNG

PHAN A :

BAO CAO TOM T A T
* Tieng viet
* Tieng Anh
* Xac nhan

PHAN B : BAO CAO CHINH
PHAN C : PHU LUC


PHAN A

BAG CAO TOM TA.T


Bao cao torn tat bann tieim viet

CAC MO HiNH T O A N OANH GlA'SL/THIET HAI VE KINH TE DO
TAC DONG COA MOI TRl/dNG 6 CAC KHU CONG NGHIEP
Ma so: QT - 01 - 27

'

1) Chu tri: POSTS. Chu Diic
Khoa Toan Ca Tin hoc
2) Cac can bo phoi hop :
1. GS.TS. Tran Van Nhung
2. TS. Dang Dinh Chau
3. TS. Le Dinh Dinh
4. Ths. Nguyen Xuan Trieu
5. PGS.TS. Nguyen Huu Ngir
6. PGS.TS. Tran Khac Hiep
3) Muc tieu va noi dung :
Bai toan

danh gia sir thiet hai ve kinh. te do tcic dong den moi

truong cua cac qua trinh cong nghiep hoa, do thi hoa 6 Viet Nam da duoc
de cap den , le te 6 cac de tai, cac bo, cac nganh va cac dia phuang. Tuy
nhien dang b muc sa sai . tiiy dieu kien cu the cua tiing nai tijtig liic ma
cac nha khoa hoc xay dung de cuang dif an cho phii hap vai hoan canh .
Vf du ve o nhiem thi cb bao nhieu loai b nhiem, moi 6 nhiem co pham vi
anh huang nhu the nao, cac yeu to 6 nhiem chfnh, phu v.v...van chua
duac xet mot each day dii. Ve thiet hai kinh.te , den bii ton that, thue
moi tmong, dong gop xa hoi dang a giai doan tiiy cac nha lam chinh sach
quyet dinh. Han nua cac so lieu de xu ly nhieu nai khong dong bo, khap
kliicmg. Chinh vi vay nhung ket luan khoa hoc se dan den ket qua a muc
do tin cay khong cao.
Vai de tai nay, chiing toi chi muon de cap den mot khfa canh nho.
£^o la sir anh hucVng tai moi truong do cac khu cong nghiep san sinh ra .

Til do dan den thiet hai ve kinh te nhu the nao . Chiing ta phai trai qua cac
buac thuc hanh nhu sau, tam goi la "ky thuat danh gia thiet hai kinh te,"
tien t6i se xay dung mot ''Quy trinh danh gia thiet hai kinh te do tac dong
ciia moi trutmg" (xem [10]).
Ve noi dung co cac phan sau :
-

Xay dung bang dieu tra mSu lay so lieu
Thiet lap mo hinh tinh toan

-

Lap chuang trinh vi tinh

-

Ap dung cu the cho viing gang thep Thai nguyen

-

Phu luc phan loai 6 nhiem va tinh toan thiet hai

-

Phu luc cac bai bao da dang

4) Cac ket qua dat duac :
- Da xay dung duac bang dieu tra mau.
- Phan loai duac cac nhom 6 nhiem khf, nuac,dat ciia viing khu gang

thep Thai nguyen.
- Lap duac chuang tnnh tfnh toan thiet hai kinh te .
- Hai bai bao duac cong bo tren tap chf va hoi nghj quoc te.
5) Tmh hinh kinh phf ciia de tai;
Vai kinh phf 8 trieu qiia eo hep . Cho nen chiing toi phai ket hap vai cac
de tai khac de hoan thanh nhiem vu .

4


Bao cao tdm tat bang tieng Anh

MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF
ECONOMICAL DAMAGES UNDER THE IMPACTS OF
ENVIRONMENT IN INDUSTRLAL REGIONS.

CODE (QT - 01 - 27)

Coordinator : Prof. Dr. Chu Due
Faculty of Mathematics - Mechanics - IntoiTnatics


MUC LUC

II

Bao cao tieng Anh

I

Participants

II

Background

III

Activities

IV

Results

V

Conclusion


I. Participants
1. Prof. Dr. Chu Due
2. Dr. Dang Dinh Chau
3. Prof. Dr. Tran Van Nhung(Bd GD &DT)
4. Dr. Le Dinh Dinh
6. Ms. Nguyen XuSn Trieu
7. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Huu Ngu (Tin hoc)
8. PGS.TS. TRan khac Hiep (Khoa MT)
Time :

from

12/2001 to 12/2002

II. Background
In recently years many factories has been established in Vietnam.
Behind the great benefit of economy apeared a lot of environmental
damages which has great insluences. But how to calculate thouse
intluences. In this project we give some mathematical methods to solve
this problem.
III. Acctivities
- Cooperation with economics University of Hanoi.
- Coperation with the centre for regional research and Development-Red
river Delta.
- Copperation with Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.
- Weekly seminar for Participants.
- Attending the conference of foresteconomics in Germany, October, 2002.
IV. Results
-

Step 1: Set up the inoestigational table for collection of data.

-

Step 2 : Collection the data at Metal Center Thai Nguyen
fit)ml995to

-

2001.

Step 3 : Modelling :
+ Analysis Methods
7


+ Statistical Method and system

Analysis.

Step 4 : Designing the program for computer.
We have some publication in following :
+ On the asymptotic equivalence of linear differential equations
in Hilbert spaces,
-h A methematical method for assessing of quality of
plantation forestry in Vietnam .
V. Conclusion
- Up to now there is the following methods.
+ Method of Tables
+ Method of mape join
+ Method of lenear models
+ Method of unlenear models
+ Mothed of energy balance
- Hier we use the lenear models to calculate the economical damages
And then we apply the modeling for the Thai Nguyen metal center.
-

Finaly we give a computer progam for calculation.


Phan xac nhan

XAC NHAN CUA BAN CHU NHIEM KHOA
(Ky va ghi ro ho ten)

CHU TRI DE TAI
(Ky va ghi ro ho ten)

t^

P^S, f ^^ ^^ ^y^^-^ ^"^ ^^^ "^

CUA TRUONG

(TYu. -^^ t-i

t


PHAN B
BAO CAO CHINH

CAC MO HiNH TOAN OANH GIA SI/THIET HAI VE KINHTE
0 0 TAC DONG CUA MOI TRI/lOrNG 0 CAC KHU CONG NGHIEP

Chu Due
Dai hoc Quoc gia Ha Noi


MUC LUC

Phan B

Bao cao chinh

Trang

§1

Dat van de

5

§2

Phuong phap luan : Bo tri thi nghiem

6

§3

Mo hinh hoa

12

Chuong trinh vi tfnh chuyen dung

13

Ap dung: Ly thuyet

13

Thuc hanh 6 khu gang thep Thai Nguyen

25

Ket qua

34

Ket luan

36

Phan III Phu luc

37

§4

Cac bai bao cong bo

38

Sd do phan loai 6 nhiem khong khf khu gang thep TN

58

So do phan loai 6 nhilm trong dat khu gang thep TN

72

So do phan loai 6 nhiim trong nuoc khu gang thep
TN

78

Tfnh toan thiet hai kinh te

80

Phan IV

Phieu dang ky ket qua de tai NC-KH

97

Phan V

Tai lieu tham khao

99


««

«

CAC MO HINH TOAN OANH GIA SIJ THIET HAI VE KINHTE
DO TAC DONG CUA MOI TRUfilNG 0 CAC KHU CONG NGHIEP

§ 1. DAT VAN DE

Bai toan

danh tjia su thiet hai ve kinh te do tac dong den moi

tiorcfng cua cac qua trinh cong nghiep hoa, do thi hoa b Viet Nam da duoc
de cap den , le te 6 cac de tai, cac bo, cac nganh va cac dia phuang. Tuy
a

nhien dang 6 muc doo sai , tuy dieu kien cu the ciia tirng nai timg liic ma
cac nha khoa hoc xay dung de cuang du an cho phij hap vai hoan canh .
Vf du ve o nhiem thi co bao nhieu loai o nhiem, moi 6 nhi^m cb pham vi
anh huang nhu the nao, cac yeu to 6 nhiem .chinh, phu v.v...van chua
duac xet mot each day du. Ve thiet hai kinh te , den bij ton that, thue
moi truang, dong gc3p xa hoi dang a giai doan tiay cac nha lam chinh sach
quyet dinh. Han niia cac so lieu de xu ly nhieu nai khong dong bo. khap
khieng. Chinh vi vay nhung ket luan khoa hoc se dSn den ket qua b muc
do tin cay khong cao.
Vai de tai nay, trong pham vi nho hep. chiing toi chi muon de cap
den mot khia canh nho. Do la su anh huang tai moi trurtng do cac khu
cong nghiep san sinh ra . Tii do dan den thiet hai ve kinh te nhu the nao .
Chung ta phai trai qua cac buac thuc hanh nhu sau,

tam goi la "ky thuat

danh gia thiet hai kinh te," tien tai se xay dung mot "'cong nghe danh gia
Ihict hai kinh te do moi tniong" (xem [10]).

§2. PHUONG PHAP LUAN
6 day chung ta diing phuang phap phan tich he thong de danh gia
thiet hai ve kinh te .


2,1. Bo tri thi nghiem, lay so lieu :
Truac tien ta phan biet cac loai doanh nghiep .
- Doanh n^ihien san xuat: vf du cone tv uanu thep Thai n^uven, con'tx ix \i
mang. cong ty than, cong ty dau mo, cong ty bong vai sai v..v..
- Doanh nuhiep dich vu thucmy mai: Conu t\ du lich lu hanh, conu l\' lU
van, conu tv dau tu, conu ty dao tao hoc nj^ihe. cony tv luat,.v..v..
- Doanh nyhien phuc vu conu dony: vf du conu.tv cav xanh, cone tv cone
vien, cong tv chieu bone, cone tv chieu sane do thi..v..vv.
Moi loai cong ty co mot sir tac dong den moi tiarang khac nhau va
tir db anh huane den kinh te cune khac nhau.
0 trong dc tai nay chiing toi chi xet den loai doanh nghiep san xuat
ma cu the la cone tv eane then Tliai Neuven.
Doi vai loai nay thi viec bo tn thf nghiem de laV so lieu nghien cuu
phai dua tren cac dac diem sau:
- Doanh nghiep do chiem 1 dien tfch mat bang bao nhieu. tren loai
dai canh lac ei. eo ma rone hane nam hav co dinh.
- Doanh nehiep san xuat loai hane e'l- Doanh nghiep sinh la cac loai 6 nhiem nao.
- Pham vi anh huang ciia timg loai o nhiem.
- Tac hai cu the ciia timg loai 6 nhiem den san xuat nong lam
nghiep. den sue khoe cong dong. benh nghe nghiep. truyen nhiem. thai
IICL.VA..

.

- \li phcii CO so lieu theo chuoi thai gian de phuc vu cho qua innh

du bao gan \ a du bao xa .
Tii' do ta de ra cac chi lieu tham so, can do dac: ta co bane dieu tra
sau:


DIEU TRA SO LIKU MOI TRUONG

HANG 1
N'ung :
Dia diem :
Neav

thane

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HAN G 2 . 2

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HANG 2.3
\'ung :
Dia diem :

Neav

DI^U TRA SO LIEU SUTC KHOE

thane

nam

chat thai
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O \ gian I benh 5. Tre
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TJIEU 1 RA SO LIEU KINH TE

D^^^^^^T

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Dia diem :
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than
nam

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thai J=
iitncm gian m-1 (san

j=ni

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{dau tir nang luang)
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11


Cac buac lien hanh cua mo hinh hoa nhu sau:
2.2.1. Liet ke cac phucmg phap xay dung mo hinh
Cho den hien na\' cb cac phucmg phap sau day:
a) Phuang phdp bdng bieu Pes kin (1989)
Tuc la phucmg phap liet ke cac hang rtiiic. San pham chuyen tij'

nganh no ib\ nganh kia, san pham dau tu. san pham bc) ra phiic k;i. san
pham cho cai tao moi trucmg, san pham khac phuc hau qua mc^i trucmg,
san pham cho quy hoach m()i tmang. san pham de phong anh huang cua
mo\ trucmg (xem [ 5 |)
/;) Phuang phdp chap bdn do
Lay sc^)' lieu tiing nganh, timg khu vuc, tiing dia phucmg va tcSng hap
dua len ban d6.
c) Phuang phdp mo hinh tuyen tinh
Db la phucmg phcip can bang lucmg vat chat ciia he kinh te: tu dc)
Xcic dinh eia thanh, lucme san pham. lucme thco-dau neu'cvi va de nehi thue
mc')i trucmg. Vc phucmg phap nay cho den hien nay. mc') hinh chu yeu van
la ciia LeontieL
d) Phuang phdp mo hinh phi tuyen
Dua \'ao cac ham san xuat phi tuyen. va phucmg irlnh can bang vat
chat giUa cac nganh, dinh mirc thue moi truang, til dc) xac dinh cac
neUc-mg tcM uu cho cac nganh phucmg phap nay cc) ten goi la CGE
(ciimputable General Equilibrium)
c) Phuang phdp can bdng ndng lugng
Dc^ne nane lucme kinh te di tii' thap sane eao, tu do anh hucme den
qua trinh phai tnen kinh te. Hay nc)i each kliac anh huc'mg den cct cau kinh
te ciia he.(Yagi-Japan)(xem 111 |)
2.2.2) Quyet dinh chon phucmg phap de xay dung mo hinh.
2.2-3) Xay dung phan mem cho mc") hinh.
2.2.4) Lap sc:^ d() khoi tinh loan va cuoi ciing la viet chucmg trinh chi tiet.

12


phong, bang so lieu thuc nghiem. dieu

^ ^ — ^ ^ P " ^ ^

chinh mc") hinh.
2.2.6) Quyel dinh mo hinh pho cap.

1.}*. Chirang trinh chuyen dung

§ 3. .\P DUNG
3.L Ly thuyet
Tren ca scV quy trinh cc)ng nghe nhu vay chiing toi thu ap dung cho
mcM kliu cc'')ng nghiep cu the. DcS la khu gang thep Thai nguyen. Khu gang
ihcp TN la mot khu viia nam trong dia hinh cc'^ do thi. cb mien niii. cc)
irune du. Dc) la mc3t doanh nehiep nam ti'one 1 he sinh thai dien hinh, va
cac loai (') nhiem cung dien hinh.
3.1.1 .Buctc 1: Dieu tra sc*)' lieu trong vong 5 nam wb lai day. liic ma
cac quv trinh cc^ne nehe san xuat tuane dc^ii 6n dinh, chua cc) bien dc^ne
ItVn. Tii' dc) cac loai c*) nhiem phai ihai ciia cac quy trinh san xuat cung nhu
ludne dcM on dinh. Cc') the} tc")ne ket lai kliu eang thc^p Thai Neuven co cac
loai (') nhiem sau day:
^^ Trong nucVc va khong khi: PH. BOD, COD, DO, N O . PO,. Brom.
Clo. Florua. NH4. SiO., Fe long so, Cu tc*)ng s d Cu tu do. Magic. Nhc~)m.
Molipden, CO, SO.. NO. NO-.. H.S, kem Phenol, Xianua, dau md,
Colilonn. chi. Ascn, Tliu\' ngan. Cadimi. H dc*) phcmg xa a. H dc*) pluuig
\a {].
'' Trong dat: PH. Miin, Niuy, P . 0 „ K.O, P de lieu. Ca^^ Mg^^
C F C Cr. SO;-, dc*) dan dien. M^\

Fe""". Na". Pb, Cadimi. Asen. Hg.

H.dc^ng phcmg xa a, H.dc*) phong xa p.

-'' Cac loai benh tat do moi trucmg gay ra nhu sau:
Huyel ap cao. viem than man tinh, ung thu, mat hc)t. viem phe
quan. (nguon xem 111, | 2 | , |3|).
* Ve thiet hai mc*)i tmcmg trong 3 nam qua. xi nghiep cung da tach
ra moi lucmg chi phi nhat dinh de khac phuc va cai tao. Chane han chi cho
13


s»^

w, WW, W44V. tMiv^ix^ wiiwii^ ..wnh, chi cho cai lien cc*)ng nghe. nang cao

phuc lofi bii doc hai,...
Ta't ea cae so lieu dU(;c dieu ira theo cac bang 2
3.1.2 . Buc'tc 2: Xay dung mc') hinh
3.1.2.1.) Phan loai cac 6 nhiem
3.1.2.2.) Xac dinh pham vi anh hucmg ciia cac o nhiem dien hinh
(quyet dinh diing phucmg trinh khuech tan nao cho phii hop \cyi dia hinh).
3.1.2.3.) Truck lien diing mc') hinh tuyen tfnh, tien tcVi diing mci hinh
phi tuyet tfnh.
3.1.2.4.) Xay dung phan mem
3.1.2-5.) Tfnh loan
3.1.2.6.) Lap moi quan he ham
+ giira doanh thu va thiet hai mb irucVng:
+ eiu'a dau tU va thiet hai moi irucme.
+ eiua thiet hai mc^i trmme theo [hb\ eian vcVi 1 cone nehc nhat
dnih.
3.1.2.7.) Suy dien mc)t so quan he khac. Nhu dc)ng lao dc^)ng tu nc")ng
thon ra ihanh thi xf nehiep, xf nehiep anh hucme den neuc")n lao done \'une
lan can v.v...

Cc) the torn lat ducVi dane sc^ dc"*) sau

14


s o DO NGHIEN CUU

Chon xf nghiep

Dau vao
(Bane mau)

Chfnh sach
phap lenh
nha nuac

K h k phuc MT
cai tao MT
quy hoach MT

Phan loai
6 nhitSm.
chon

Xac dmh pham vi
anh hut'rng ciia 6
nhi^m

I

Dieu ira y to
cong dong
;chi phf tong

Chi tieu
xu ly

•HToni: ihiel hat
theo I
-

Cac moi Hen
quan khac

^

" -

•

-

Quan he ham
ihiet hai thet^ t.
theo dau tu.
theo dtninh thu

Kien dC nehi
—
•

chfnh sach

Tone dau tu

Tong doanh
thu


'.l.-i.

OUI^'V^ - ' .

I iv-ll

liaiiii

3.1.3. 1) Lap bang so lieu c) nhi<^m.
3.1.3. 2) Ky hieu cac dai luong tinh toan.
3.1.3. 3) Xac dinh pham vi anh huc'mg.
- Dieu tra theo phieu tham dc)
- Tinh loan theo phucmg trinh khuech tan.
+ Trong khf (xem [ 3 1)
-I- Trong dat (xem [ 8 1)
+ Trong nudc (khe, suo'i. song, ho).
3.1.3. 4) Phan loai 6 nhiem
3.1.3. 5) Tfnh loan
- Xem mc*)i trUcmg la mc^)t khu vuc kinh te.
- Cac phan xuc'mg la cac khu vuc kmh te: y te ciing la khu vuc kmh le.
- Xac dinh mc*)i lien he eiua eia thanh, phuc lai. lucme bc'me. va
nghia vu dcmg gcSp cho mcM tniang (thue mc*)i ti-Ucmg cho tiing phan

xucVng).
Theo mo hinh ciia Leonlief ( xem \ 5 | )'
Goi x,| la san pham ciia khu vuc i vao khu virc j .
p^ la gia thanh ciia khu vuc i.
1, la luang/lao dc3ng x san pham cua khu vuc i,
v^ la lucmg/san pham.
X, la tc1ng doanh thu ciia khu vuc i.
Khi dc') la CO mo\ lien he eiu'a p . 1. v .
^-

1

1

1

Dua vao L v, la xac dinh duc^c p, va netrac lai.
- Sau khi tfnh loan duac gia thanh cho iimg khu vuc kinh te i la
chuyen qua tfnh loan ic'mg lhic}l hai theo mo hinh luyen tfnh ( xem [ 4 j )
3.1.3. 6) Dung ly thuyet hoi quy lap cac quan he ham.
Goi Q, la thiet hai moi trudng tai thdi diem i (c6 the la ihang. quv.
nam, miia...).
16


toan tdi uu, xac dinh thue mc*)i tmdng va
[Mian uong gop cua nna nuac sao cho cue dai phuc loi (mc) hinh phi
luyen).
Bay gid ta lien hanh qua 7 budc tren :
a) Lap bang sd lieu mau (trong § .2)

b) Xac dinh pham vi anh hucimg:
+ Trong khong khi
+ Trong dat:
(X-V, )"•

1

r r v w v^ Qxo,yo.zo,to) _
i-(x,y,z) = I
^
exp

!

4t

^(47a)'\^k,.k^

(y-u.)"
+ ^

\

(z-w.)-f.

\

Trong dd: C(x,,. y,,, /,,, t„) la nong dd chat d nhiem tai diem phat
thai. k.^. k,, k^ la he sc*) khuech tan theo true x. y. z.
t la then gian

C(x. V. z, t) la none ^d chat d nhiem lai diem (x. v, z) vcVi ihdi eian l.
Irong do:

k. =

1
2{n-l)

I

V: - V ) -

1^1

n

kv =

Y.iu-^i)r

2(n

i= \

n

ky =

y (w. - w)
2(n-l)

1=1

trong dd v,. u,. \v, la tcic dd lan toa theo cac true x. y. z cV lan do ihu'
i, vcVi n mau do (xem |8|).
c) Ky hieu :
1) Cac phan xUc'mg trong doanh nghiep
k = 1. 2, ... s
2) Cac chat d nhiem i : i = L 2. ...n.
3) Thc:fi gian t :
4) Benh tat j :

t = I, 2.... v.
j= L2

m.

5) Xj^: khoi lucmg d nhi6m i ciia phan xudng k tai thdi diem t
W

^ v

•L! 1 ' '

'"

DT/roiJf

17