Môi trường đầu tư ở châu Phi.

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MOI

T R L T O N G

OAU T l / 6 CHAU PHI

1. Cd hoi

De cdi thien dieu kien pbdl trien kinh le,
chau Phi cbii trgng Ibu but ddu lu nudc ngodi
ehu yeu dya vao liem luc to ldn cua khu vuc
minh. Xu bucing loan cau hod vd dd thj hod
dang mang lai cho chdu Phi nhirng ccr hdi
dau tu mdi. Ben canh dd, mdi Irudng ddu tu

<i>a chdu Phi cting dang tiem an nhieu rui ro </i>

hern cho cdc nha dau tu.

Chdu Phi chiem khoang 15"o dan sd \a
1/5 lanh thd todn the gic'ri nhung chi dong
gdp 2% san lucmg loan cau. Hien liii. da_\ la
nicil trong nhirng khu \ irc ngheo ddi \a kem
pbal trien nhat trcMi the gidi. Mae dii \ii_\.
chau Phi \an cdn rat nhieu kha nang e;ii
thien \a phat trien cac \ img kinh le cimg nhu
cac thi IrucVnu tromz \ eu cua minh.

Bang 1:

Toe do tang trudng (%)
Lam phdt (%)

M2/GDP (%)
Quy mo chinh phu

(chi lieu %GDP)
Dir trtr qudc le
(ihang nhap khau)
Ng (%GDP)

Ch
<b>1 </b>

<b>! </b>

<b>i </b>

<b>1 </b>
1

iu Phi ngay

Dong Nam
(1980)

7,3
17,0
27,2

19.4

3,6

3,4

nay

A

so vdi Dong N

.Mot so nu'6(
Phi chon loc

i 6.4
7.1

27,9

22,8

10.0

i 9,9
im A thi

• chiiu
(2007)

i

<b>- - 4 </b>

<b>i </b>

ip ky 1980

C hiiu Phi Clin
Xahara (2007)

6.6
7.9
62.4

25,1

5.8

<i>'^2 "> </i>

<i>.\giidn: IMF. African Department. Sub-Saharan .Africa: Private Capital Fueling Growth. </i>
<i>.May 22. 2008 </i>

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<b>Nguyen PhUdng Anh </b> MOI trUdng dau tU.

2. Dong luTc phat trien kinh te chu yeu
Tang Irudng kinh le ciia khu vye chau Phi
chu yeu dya vdo lieu diing. Dan sd dang lang
len ciing vdi Ihu nhap dugc cdi thien dang
lam lang sire mua ddi vdi nhieu mat hdng
nhu dien Ihoai. cdc trang thiel bi bien dai vd
xe bai. Quan trgng ban ntra Id nhirng lien bd
trong cdc cbinb sach tien te, ludt. Ihuong
mai. thue vd cdc chinh sdch tdi chinh dang
icio mang lai nhieu hieu qud. Ngodi ra. cdc

ngudn vdn ldn chii yeu Id thdng qua vien irg
vd dau lu true liep nudc ngoai dang duge
dau lu vao he thdng ca sd ha ldng. cac ngdnh
dien lu vd Ihdng lin lien lac. Nhd dd. chdu
Phi da dat dugc tdc do phdt irien manh me
trong mdl thdp ky trd lai dav'. Tdc do pbdl
trien kinb le d chau Phi can Xahara dat trung
binh 6%/nam ke tir nam 2004.

3. Tai nguyen thien nhien la nguon
Ic^i chu yeu cua kinh te chau Phi

Chdu Phi la khu vuc tap trung ngudn tdi
nguyen ihien nhien Idn cua the gidi. The gidi
dudng nhu khdng bao gid Ihod man nhu cau
ve hdng hod. cbinb dieu ndy da lao dieu kien
phat trien mdt sd ITnb vye irong nen kinb te
chau Phi nhu: ndng nghiep. dau mo. khi ga
lu nhien. kim cuang. vdng. bdng. nhdm \d
cdc vat lieu ihay the. Trong thyc le. ,80% gid
tri xudl khdu cua luc dia ndv Id cdc san pham
dugc tao ra tir ngudn tdi ngu}en thien nhien.

Chdu Phi da tra thdnh luc dia cung cdp
nhieu nbal ngudn nang lugng can thiel cua
the gidi. Chang ban. mdt trong nhung ngudn
dau mo Idn nhdl the gidi nam a Nigeria.
Ngoai ra. cdc nude Angola. Sudan vd Guine
Xich dao gan day cung bat dau tham dd them
nhirng ngudn ddu mo mcii hoae tang lugng

ddu khai tbdc lu nhung ngudn san cd. Cac
nudc san xuat dau mo cua chdu Phi dat tdc
do lang irudng GDP khoang 9.9%o nam 2008
so V di 8,8% nam 2007

<b>Biing 2: Tai nguyen thien nhien ciia Chau Phi (% trong dy trir toan cau) </b>

40%

<i>V Klioiris skn </i> 30%

20%

LSm! 17%

<i>Ngudn: -Best Asset Class, BAC Africa Natural Resources </i>

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Moi trudng dau tU. _{Nguyen PhUdng Anh}

<b>Bang 3: Thu-ong mai chau Phi can Xahara - My </b>

(trieu
USD)

2004

2005

<b>2006 </b>

2007

<b>8,4 </b>

10,3

12.1

14.3

35,9

50,4

59,1

Xuat khau ciia My

Nhap khau ciia My

67,4

<i>Ngudn: International Monetary Fund, Unblocking Trade-Finance & Development. </i>

<i>December 2006 </i>

Djeh vu vien thdng, Internet dang Id Mac dii van cdn nhidu ihaeh thirc. nhimg
nhung ngdnh cd tdc do lang trudng nhanh d chau Phi vdn dang tiep tue edi thien nang luc
chdu Phi. Trong ITnb vuc dien thoai. chdu eua minh trong he thdng thucmg mai loan
Phi Id mdt trong nhung thi trudng pbdl trien cdu. Theo biing 3. tdng gid tri ihucrng mai

nhanh nhdt tren todn cdu. lao ra nhieu co hdi giira My vd chau Phi da tang len gan 15%
cho ngdnh thuang mai cung nhu cho tirng trong nam 2007. Cung trong nam nay. nhap
doanh nghiep trong nudc. Vi du nhu Nigeria. khau thuc phdm vd dieh \ u cua chdu Phi lir
mdl ddt nudc ddng dan nhat d chdu Phi can

Sahara da lieu Ibu gdn 500.000 chiec dien
ihoai vdo nam 1999. Den nay. con sd dd da
tang Ien khoang 36 trieu chiec vd chae chan
cdc djeh vu nay se cd nhieu co hdi pbdl trien
han nira khi ma dan sd dang tang len. nen
kinh te cd nhieu khdi sac. Trong ITnb vuc
<i>Internet, sd ngudi sir dung Internet a chau </i>
Phi da lang rat nhanh. chiem 14%o sd ngudi
sir dung tren loan the gidi. Ghana. Kenya vd
Senegal cung dang lim kiem nbtmg nganh
nghe cd khd nang pbdl trien. Ihdnh lap cdc
lrung lam tra Idi dien thoai vd xir ly sd lieu
de cung cdp cho cdc nudc phat trien.

My tang 14% so vdi nam 2006 vd tang gdn
gap ddi so vdi nam 2004. Kbi xudt khau
hang hod van Id ehia khod de chau Phi hgi
nhdp \di thuang mai the gidi thi chau Phi
cdn phai da dang hod hem nira cdc hdng hod
cdng nghiep vd djeh vu. ihiel bi dien tu \ a
del may.

<b>4. Thj tru'dng chau Phi la nguon ldi </b>
<b>chu yeu cua khu vu'c chau A </b>

Trung Qude vd An Do la hai nude eung
chiem 10% kim ngach xudl nhap khdu eua
chau Phi \d mdl dieu dae biel Id xuat khau
ciia chdu Phi ehu yc^u Id sang Trung Qudc.
Kbi md hdu hel cdc nircVc tren the gidi nluip

<i><b>Tgp chi nghien ciru CHAI PHI A Till >G »0>G so 07 (47) thang 7/2009 </b></i> 53

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N g u y e n PhUdng A n h _{Moi trUdng dau tU.}

khau hang hod vd dich vu lir Trung Qudc ihi
xudl khau ciia chau Phi vao Trung Qudc lai
lang lrung binh 40%o/nam kd tir nam 2002.

Ngodi ra, Trung Qudc da ird ihanh chii lin
dung mdi ciia chau Phi, ngdy cdng lang
cudng ung hd ve ldi chinh Ihdng qua dau tu
true liep, gidm ng, trg cdp va cho vay. De
ddm bdo dieu nay. chinh phii Trung Qudc da
lang chi lieu Irong nhieu ITnh vuc ciia chdu
Phi nhu dau md, gido due, che bien thuc
phdm. giao thdng vd lien lac; tiep tyc dau lu
khoang 12 ty USD Irong 3 nam ddu lien ke
lir nam 2007 vd dy linh se lang khoang 20 ly
USD Irong 5 nam liep theo. Rieng ngdnh che
bien dau. linb den cudi nam 2006, Trung
Qudc da ddu tu vdo chau Phi 11,7 ly USD,
liep luc lang Ihem 5 ly USD vd cd ke hoach
cho vay 3 ty USD Irong khodng 3 nam liep
theo. Cdc ngudn vdn cua Trung Qudc cbu

yeu dugc dau lu vdo cdc nudc dau mo nbu
Angola, Nigeria, Sudan vd Zambia.

<b>5. Ldi ich cua cac nha dau tu* dang </b>
<b>tang nhanh </b>

Ddi vdi cdc nudc mdi ndi thi ddu lu trye
liep nudc ngodi ddng vai trd quan trgng
trong qua trinh phdt trien kinh le. Rat nhieu
ddng vdn dang dau tu vdo ngdnh cdng nghe
va dao lao ky nang. dieu dd cdng ldm nhanh
them qud trinh pbal trien cua cdc nudc nay.

Tai chau Phi. gid nhdn cdng thdp. tiem
nang pbdl trien thuang mai vd tinh thanh
khodn dugc cai ihien la lyc hiil cdc ddng vdn
ddu lu lu nhan irong cdc ngudn vdn qudc le.
Ddu lu iryc liep nudc ngodi liep luc Id ngudn
ddu lu Icm ciia vdn lu nhdn lai chau Phi can
Sahara, hien lai da vugt qua 20 ly USD.
Trong khi Nam Phi va cac nudc xudl khau
ddu tiep luc Id chii the cbinb thu bill ddng
vdn EDI, thi dau tu vdo cdc nudc cdn lai
trong khu vuc chau Phi can Sahara cting
dang lang len, dat khodng 4,1 ty USD nam
2006. Mdl sd cdng ly nudc ngodi dang dau
lu vdo khu vye ndy bao gdm Air Erance,
Exxon, Shell va DeBeer.

Bang 4: Dong von dau tu tu nhan (ty USD

6 0

50

4 0

>0

20

10

0

10

<b>"</b>

<b>'</b>

<b>i</b>

<b> 1 1 </b>

• • • • TOTAL

<b>1 1 </b>

<i>tV.J </i>

<b>:• ^li </b>

, • !

<b>I I I </b>

2000 2001 2002 200 3 2 004 2005 200 6 2 007

<i>Nguon: IMF, African Department, Sub-Saharan Africa: Private Capital Fueling Growth, </i>
<i>May 22, 2008 </i>

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Moi trUdng dau tU... <b>Nguyen PhUdng Anh </b>

<b>Cac ddng vdn ddu tu tang len nhanh </b>
chdng dugc phan dnh thdng qua viec cdi
ihien khdi lugng vdn dau tu, sy phdt banh
trai phieu qudc le cua cdc nudc chau Phi va
so lugng cdc cdng ly niem yet ngay cdng
tang tren thj trudng chimg khodn dia
phuang. Trong giai doan 2000 - 2007 da cd
<b>them 66 thj trudng chimg khodn dia phuang </b>
<b>dugc niem yet. Cdc cdng ty ed gia tri tdi san </b>
tren 100 irieu USD niem yet tren thj trudng
chimg khodn da tang tir 34 len 109 cdng ty
trong eiing mdt giai doan.

<b>Nhu'ng kho khan hien tai </b>

Tuy kinh te chau Phi da irdi qua nhieu
thay ddi quan trgng trong thai gian qua
<b>nhung con ducmg ddi van dang d phia trudc. </b>
Nhtrng gdnh nang ng xau vd te nan tham
<b>nhung van edn tdn tai la nbtmg can trd ddi </b>
voi qud trinh phdt trien kinb te trong tuong
lai ciia chdu Phi. Nhieu nude chau Phi da nd

luc de thodt khoi danh sdch nbimg nudc cd
cbl sd phdt trien eon ngudi thdp nhat, nhung
ket qud cdn rdt ban che do linb irang \a bdi
<i>va cbinb tri bat dn, cdc cude noi chien, biio </i>
ddng, thj trudng vdn kem pbdl trien, hu\
ddng tren tbi trudng trong nucic ibdp, khdi
lugng giao dich ihuong mai nho, kha nana
gidi ngan kem, lam phdt, nhimg thav ddi bdt
thudng ciia gid ea, cdc qu\ dinh khdng rd
rang ve cac mat bdng kinh doanh vd eac rao
cdn thuang mai. Ben canh dd la ede \an de
nhu thieu thdng lin xde ihuc \ e ldi cbinb, gid
cao, vdn de thue, kha nang thanh khoan
gidm. bdo cdo thieu chat che \ d ddu lu ngoai
te mao hiem...Tdt ea cdc yeu id dd da gav ra
mire do rui ro eao kbi dau tu v do thi irucrng
chau Phi.

<i>Ngudn: Van Eck Securities Corporation. </i>

<i>Distrihulor 99 Park Avenue. .\cir )'ork. .Veu York </i>

<i>10016. vancck.coni </i>

<i><b>Liroc djeh: Nguyen Phuang Anh </b></i>

<b>Vien Nghien eiiu Chau Phi va Trung Dong </b>

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