Assessing weather forecasting needs of small scale marine fishers for climate change adaptation and their willingness to pay for improved weather forecasting services

1.96‘

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING
NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY

TRAN THI THANH HIEN

ASSESSING WEATHER FORECASTING NEEDS OF
SMALL-SCALE MARINE FISHER FOR CLIMATE
CHANGE ADAPTATION AND THEIR WILLINGNESS TO
PAY FOR IMPROVED WEATHER FORECASTING
SERVICES: CASE STUDY OF VINH NGUYEN WARD,
NHA TRANG CITY

MASTER THESIS

KHANH HOA – 2019
i


MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING
NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY

TRAN THI THANH HIEN

ASSESSING WEATHER FORECASTING NEEDS OF
SMALL-SCALE MARINE FISHER FOR CLIMATE
CHANGE ADAPTATION AND THEIR WILLINGNESS TO
PAY FOR IMPROVED WEATHER FORECASTING
SERVICES: CASE STUDY OF VINH NGUYEN WARD,
NHA TRANG CITY

MASTER THESIS
Major:
Topic allocation Decision
Decision on establishing the
Committee
Defense date:
Supervisors:
Prof. MARGRETHE AANESEN
Dr. HOANG PHUC LAM
Chairman:
(Full name)
Faculty of Graduate Studies:
(Full name)

KHANH HOA – 2019
ii


UNDERTAKING
I undertake that the thesis entitled: “Assessing Weather Forecasting Needs Of
Small-Scale Marine Fishers For Climate Change Adaptation And Their
Willingness To Pay For Improved Weather Forecasting Services: Case Study Of
Vinh Nguyen Ward, Nha Trang City” is my own work. The work has not been
presented elsewhere for assessment until the time this thesis is submitted.
Khanh Hoa, Date 29 month 5 year 2019

TRAN THI THANH HIEN

iii

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

I would like to express the deepest appreciation to:
-

Nha Trang University and University of Tromso for giving me an opportunity

to study the Norhed Master’s Program in Marine-based Ecosystem Management and
Climate Change.
-

All Lectures and Professors of Norhed Master’s Program and Nha Trang for

generous contribution towards my academic sojourn.
-

And Faculty and Staff/Department Economic and Management of Trang

University for helping and giving best conditions me finish my thesis.
My special thanks go to Prof. Margrethe Aanesen and Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam for the
continuous support of my Master study and research for your patience, motivation,
enthusiasm, and immense knowledge. Your guidance helped me in all the time of
research and writing of this thesis.
Last but not the least, I would like to thank my family, cohort 3 classmates,
colleagues, fishers and People’s Committee of Vinh Nguyen ward for supporting me
throughout writing this thesis.
Thank you all!
Khanh Hoa, Date 29 month 5 year 2019

TRAN THI THANH HIEN

iv


Contents
UNDERTAKING ...................................................................................................... iii
ACKNOWLEDGMENT ........................................................................................... iv
LIST OF SYMBOLS ................................................................................................. iv
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .................................................................................... v
ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................... 1
CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................ 2
1.1. Background Information ............................................................................... 2
1.2. Research Objectives ...................................................................................... 5
CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ..................................................................... 6
2.1 Impacts of climate change on the Small-Scale Marine fisheries...................... 6
2.1.1 Marine ecosystem impacts ........................................................................ 6
2.1.2 Impacts on Small-Scale Marine fishers livelihoods .................................. 6
2.2. Impacts of extreme weather events to fishing activities.................................. 7
2.4. Weather forecast and climate change adaptation. ........................................... 7
2.5. Vietnam weather forecast and transmitting system ......................................... 8
2.6 Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) to estimate Willingness To Pay for
weather and climate services. ............................................................................... 10
2.7 Conceptual framework ................................................................................... 11
CHAPTER 3 ............................................................................................................. 14
MATERIALS AND METHODS ............................................................................. 14
3.1. Study areas ..................................................................................................... 14
3.2. Data Collection .............................................................................................. 14
3.3. Sampling Approach ....................................................................................... 15
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3.4. Data Analysis ................................................................................................. 16
CHAPTER 4 ............................................................................................................. 18
MAIN FINDINGS AND RESULTS ........................................................................ 18
4.1 Analysis of Meteorological Data and the damage from extreme weather
events in Nha Trang city....................................................................................... 18
4.1.1 Analysis of Nha Trang Meteorological Data .......................................... 18
4.1.2 The damage from extreme weather events in Nha Trang ....................... 21
4.2 Socio-Economic Characteristics of Fishermen .............................................. 26
4.2.1. Survey location ....................................................................................... 26
4.2.2 Gender ..................................................................................................... 26
4.2.3 Age of respondents .................................................................................. 27
4.2.4 Education: ................................................................................................ 28
4.2.5 Fishing experience ................................................................................... 29
4.2.6. Residential duration ................................................................................ 29
4.2.7 Fishing trip duration ................................................................................ 30
4.2.8. Fishing Income ....................................................................................... 30
4.2.9 Household income: .................................................................................. 31
4.3. Climate change and its impacts on fisher’s communities and fishing activities
.............................................................................................................................. 33
4.3.1 Fisher's awareness about Climate Change and change in weather
conditions.......................................................................................................... 33
4.3.2 Fisher’s perception about the impacts of climate change on their coastal
regions .............................................................................................................. 34
4.4. Fisher's weather information needs and how important they are .................. 39
4.4.1. Frequency of receiving weather information ......................................... 39

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4.4.2. Fisher’s weather and climate information needs and how important they
are ..................................................................................................................... 40
4.4.3. The importance of weather information sources for fisher .................... 42
4.4.4. Fisher’s perception about weather information to adapt to Climate
Change .............................................................................................................. 44
4.4.5. Fisher’s willingness to pay for the weather and climate services .......... 44
CHAPTER 5 ............................................................................................................. 47
CONCLUSION AND RECOMENDATIONS ........................................................ 47
5.1. Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 47
5.2. Recommendation ........................................................................................... 48
REFERENCES ......................................................................................................... 49
APPENDICES .......................................................................................................... 55

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LIST OF SYMBOLS
N

Total number of respondents

𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑊𝑇𝑃

Variance of WTP

𝑠𝑑. 𝑑𝑒𝑣.𝑊𝑇𝑃

Standard deviation of WTP

𝑠𝑡𝑑. 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟𝑊𝑇𝑃
̅̅̅̅̅̅̅

Standard error of WTP

̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
𝑊𝑇𝑃

Mean of WTP

̅̅̅̅̅
𝑎𝑔𝑒

Mean of age

𝑠𝑑. 𝑑𝑒𝑣.𝑎𝑔𝑒

Standard deviation of age

𝑐𝑜𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑊𝑇𝑃.𝑎𝑔𝑒

Covariance of WTP and age

𝜌𝑊𝑇𝑃.𝑎𝑔𝑒

The correlation coefficient between WTP and age

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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
CC

Climate Change

CCS

Coastal Communication System

CSCNDPC Central Steering committee for Nature Disaster Prevention and
Control
CVM

Contingent Valuation Method

EWS

Early Warning System

EPA

Environmental Protection Agency

IPCC

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

KTV

Khanh Hoa Television

FAO

The Food and Agriculture Organization

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

GNP

Gross National Product

LSCNDPC Local Steering committee for Nature Disaster Prevention and
Control
NHMS

National Hydro-Meteorological Service

NCHMCF

National Centre for Hydro-meteorological forecasting

NCAER

National Council of Applied Economic Research

MORE

Ministry of Natural Resource And Environment

RHMC

Regional hydro-meteorological centers

SCRHMC

South Center Regional Hydro-Meteorology Centre

PHMC

Provincial hydro-meteorological centers

VND

Vietnam dong

VTV

Vietnam Television

WTP

Willingness to pay
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1 Viet Nam weather forecast and transmitting in system .......................... 10
Figure 2.2 Conceptual framework of meteorological information forecast ............ 13

Figure 3.1 Map showing the study areas in Vinh Nguyen ward .............................. 14
Figure 4.1 Annual Average Temperate from 1977 – 2017 at Nha Trang weather
station ....................................................................................................................... 18
Figure 4.2 Ten-years Average Temperate from 1977 – 2017 at Nha Trang weather
station ....................................................................................................................... 19
Figure 4.3 The change in average temperature of ten years period at Nha Trang . 19
Figure 4.4 The Annual, Dry and Rainy season Rainfall at Nha Trang .................... 20
Figure 4.5 Changing of Average annual rainfall of ten years at Nha Trang .......... 20
Figure 4.6 Some extreme weather events at Nha Trang city in some years recently
.................................................................................................................................. 23
Figure 4.7 Number and Damage of two main extreme weather events .................. 25
Figure 4.9 Gender of responder ............................................................................... 26
Figure 4.10 Histogram of Age .................................................................................. 27
Figure 4.11 Distribution of education ...................................................................... 28
Figure 4.12 Distribution of education on Island and Inland ................................... 29
Figure 4.13 Distribution of Fishing Income ............................................................ 31
Figure 4.14 Distribution of Household Income ....................................................... 32
Figure 4.15 Fisher's awareness about Climate Change and weather conditions ... 33
Figure 4.16 Impacts of climate change on coastal regions ..................................... 34
Figure 4.17 Impacts of climate change on fishing activities .................................... 36
Figure 4.18 Fisher’s experience about climate events in recent years ................... 38
Figure 4.19 The importance of weather information sources for fisher .................. 42
Figure 4.20 Frequency of receiving weather information sources .......................... 42
Figure 4.21 Weather information help fishers adapt to Climate Change ................ 44

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LIST OF TABLES
Table 4.1 Extreme weather events in Nha Trang’s history ...................................... 21

Table 4.2 The Damage of Extreme Climate Events in Khanh Hoa province in ....... 24
Table 4.3 Distribution of the respondents ................................................................ 26
Table 4.4 Age of respondents characteristics .......................................................... 27
Table 4.5 Fishing experience distribution ................................................................ 29
Table 4.6 Residential duration of the Fishermen ..................................................... 30
Table 4.7 Fishing trip duration ................................................................................ 30
Table 4.8 Fishing Income characteristics (million VND/month) ............................. 30
Table 4.9 Household Income characteristics (in millions VND/month) ................. 31
Table 4.10 Impacts of climate change on coastal regions ....................................... 35
Table 4.11 Impacts of climate change on fishing activities ..................................... 37
Table 4.12 Climate events in recent years................................................................ 38
Table 4.13 Frequency of receiving weather information ......................................... 39
Table 4.14 Fisher’s weather and climate information needs and how important of
them........................................................................................................................... 41
Table 4.15 Number of respondents WTP for weather and climate services ............ 45
Table 4.16 WTP’s characteristics in VND/month .................................................... 45
Table 4.17 Distribution of WTP of the respondents, measured in VND/month ...... 45
Table 4.18 Correlation Coefficient of WTP and others factors ............................... 46

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ABSTRACT
Emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise when the world is burning ever more coal,
oil and gas for energy. The risk of the Earth's climate system is growing every day. There
are uncertainty associated with the linkages between climate change and extreme weather
events. Effects of Climate change are for example changing levels of precipitation, more
severe weather and tropical cyclones. Damage resulting from extreme weather events is
already heavily impacting the civil and economic sectors, especially fisheries and fishing
communities. Weather and climate forecasting information services can prepare fishers

and their communities for weather-related disasters, and contribute to smooth climate
change adaptation. However, most fisher communities lack meteorological information to
respond to climate change, and many of them are unaware of how weather forecasts can
help them in adapting to impacts of climate change. This thesis investigates a particular
fisher community's meteorological information needs and their climate change awareness.
The research also examines the delivery of the weather services to meet the fisher
community's needs to adapt to impacts of climate change, and evaluate fishers’ willingness
to pay for improving the weather and climate information. The study was conducted in
Vinh Nguyen ward and 127 fishers were face-to-face interviewed through convenience
sampling. Results show that 91% of the respondents in Vinh Nguyen ward are aware that
climate change is changing the weather to the worse in their area. More than 80% of the
respondents prefer “short to medium range weather forecast” with forecast details such as
temperature, rainfall and wind, and “Warning severe weather events” that help them to
plan their fishing trips and reduce risks caused by weather-related disasters. More than
80% of the respondents said National Television Chanel (VTV channel), Apps on
Cellphone, Web of NCHMF, ICOM radios are “important” or “very important”, and 69%
of the respondents were willing to pay for improving weather and climate information
services. The 95% confidence interval for their willingness to pay is 24.8-34.9 million
VND. The study concludes that the weather and climate information services currently
received by fishers are quite diverse, but there is no official weather channel exclusively
for marine fishermen, aiding them in adapting to the increasingly unusual weather and the
change or decline in the aquatic resources they harvest.
Keywords--Climate change, Adaptation, Fishery, Weather and Climate Information.
1


CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
1.1.

Background Information

Climate change (CC) presently is a major global concern that has many positive and
negative effects on the environment, socio-economic and other related sectors, such as
water resources, human health, agriculture, and food security, biodiversity and marine
ecosystems (Feleke, 2015). CC, and extreme weather have a significant influence on the
lives and livelihoods of people in Viet Nam (Adger, 1999). CC influences and impacts
all economic sectors including subsistence and commercial agriculture and fisheries,
maritime and air transport services, water resources, energy, and production, tourism,
infrastructure and cultural activities (McElwee et al., 2010). Accurate and timely
information on the nature and timing of weather and extreme events are therefore vital
for community adaptation to such events and sustainable economic development.
Weather and climate forecasting information services are, a critical part of early warning
services, and can prepare communities and nations for weather-related disasters, and
contribute to smooth climate change adaptation (World Bank, 2009).
CC and the associated impacts in terms of sea-level rise, ocean acidification and changes
in salinity, precipitation, groundwater and river flows, and water stresses. CC is also
considered to be related to an increase in extreme climate events such as increased
frequency of typhoons, inland saltwater intrusions, droughts and floods which are
changing the productivity of aquatic habitats, modifying the distribution and
productivity of both marine and freshwater fish species (EPA, 2016). Such changes are
influencing the seasonality of biological and biophysical processes as well as increasing
direct risks to human well-being in terms of reduced agriculture productivity,
infrastructure and processes throughout the fisheries and aquaculture production chain
(Cochrane & el al., 2009). Shaw et al. (2010) and the IPCC (2012), have shown that the
incidence and intensity of typhoons in Vietnam have increased, temperature has risen,
(and conversely the number of cold fronts has decreased), and droughts are more
prevalent (MORE, 2016) and affect fish resources and fish caught.
Fish has been an important part of the human diet in almost all countries of the world.
It is highly nutritious; it can provide vital nutrients food which dominate poor people’s
diets (Cochrane & el al., 2009). Fish provides about 20 % of animal protein intake for

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1.5 billion people who mainly from developing countries (Cochrane & el al., 2009) and
is one of the cheapest sources of animal protein as far as availability and affordability
are concerned. Capture fisheries produce a larger share of total fish proteins although
aquaculture output has recently surpasses wild caught fish in total global fish production
(Mimako et al., 2015). Fisheries and aquaculture do not only supply nations with a rich
source of proteins, but also employment, income, and foreign currency. Activities taking
place in coastal areas within 100 km of the shore account for an estimated 61% of the
world’s total Gross National Product (GNP) (Ebarvia 2016). The number of people
directly employed in fisheries and aquaculture is estimated at 43.5 million, of which
over 90% are small–scale fishers (Cochrane & el al., 2009). In addition to those directly
employed in fishing, over 200 million people are thought to be dependent on small-scale
fishing in developing countries. Fisheries are often the primary economic activity for
inhabitants of remote and rural areas where other economic activities are limited, it is
also an important source for economic growth and sustainable livelihoods (Cochrane &
el al., 2009).
In Vietnam the fisheries sector contributes about 3% of the GDP and fish contributes
about 40% of animal protein consumption in the country (Son and Thuoc, 2003). People
living in the coastal zones of Vietnam depend heavily on marine and aquaculture
resources for their livelihoods.
The ecological systems that support fisheries are, however, already known to be
sensitive to climate variability. In 2007, the International Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), for example, highlighted various risks to aquatic systems from climate change.
These threats include loss of coastal wetlands, coral bleaching and changes in the
distribution and timing of fresh water flows (Orr et al., 2005). Similarly, fishing
communities and related industries are concentrated in coastal or low lying areas which
are progressively at risk from sea level rise, extreme weather events and a wide range of
human pressures (Nicholls et al., 2007). While poverty in fishing communities or other

forms of marginalization reduces their ability to adapt and respond to change, most of
these rural communities lack meteorological information to respond to CC, and many
of the inhabitants are unaware of the relationship between meteorological forecasts and
CC.
3


Climate and meteorological information and support services play a critical role in
providing Early Warning Systems (EWS) as well as increasing awareness and
knowledge building adaptive capacity and disaster preparedness to a changing climate.
Choice of the dissemination channels can influence access and use of weather, climate
information and service distribution to for vulnerable fisher groups. Weather, climate
information and support services relevant to adaptation in vulnerable coastal areas
include early warning signals, weather forecasts, emergency guidelines, and financial
support, medical and veterinary assistance (Thornton et al., 2006; IPCC, 2007). Though
the people living in coastal communities are in most need of access to weather, climate
information and support services, they have yet to fully experience the benefits of
climate research, information and support services to enable them to cope effectively
and build adaptive capacity to climate change. (O’Brien et al., 2008)
Statement of the Problem
Due to the climate change, Viet Nam has been facing increased frequency and intensity
of extreme weather events during the last decades (MORE, 2016). For the period 2007–
2050, CC is predicted to cause Vietnam’s annual GDP growth rate to decline by 0.02 to
0.10% points. Though this is minuscule relative to the GDP, absolute estimated losses
resulting from climate change are significant, and estimated at US$6-15$ billion (in
present value terms using a discount rate of 5 percent), and these losses are expected to
be more severe for certain sectors and population groups such as agriculture, transport,
fishery, etc. (UNU -WIDER, 2013). These losses provide clear incentives for increasing
meteorological information and services for adaptation of policies designed to reduce
climate change damages. Moreover, the risks posed by climate change suggest that there

is a window of opportunity for Vietnam to benefit from pre-emptive action. Some of the
climatic events such as storms and tropical depressions have been observed to occur
more frequently in the last decade and have been tending to move south of Viet Nam
and trajectories have been more complex, and are more difficult to predict (MORE,
2016; Tan, Phan V. ; Thanh, 2013). Fishing activities depend on the weather, especially
extreme weather events such as storm, thunderstorm, strong monsoon, and torrential
rains. Therefore, the weather forecast information is increasingly important for
fisherman and their communities.
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To minimize the consequences of natural disasters, it is necessary to make accurate
weather forecasts and release early warnings to help coastal communities to prepare for
extreme weather events. However, these two tasks haven’t been done well in the past.
The country has an unevenly distributed network of 174 meteorological surface stations
and 248 hydrological stations, as well as 29 agro-meteorological stations. Forecasting
services are at national, regional, and provincial levels. However, the current use of
meteorological information is unknown (The World Bank Group). Forecasts and
warning systems need to be improved for hazards such as typhoons, temperature
increases, flash floods and other types of natural disasters. Efforts in fishers’ awareness
creation of CC need to be frequent and systematic. However, the type of forecast
information received by fishers is unknown. The quality, effectiveness, and usefulness
of the information have not been analyzed.
1.2.

Research Objectives

This study adopts a social science approach within a modified conceptual framework
adopted from Cherotich et al. (2012) to evaluate fishing communities’ awareness and
knowledge of the relationship between meteorological information and climate change

events. The research investigates a particular fishers community's meteorological
information needs and their climate change awareness. The research also examines the
delivery of the meteorological services to meet the fisher community's needs to adapt to
impacts of climate change.
The specific objectives are:
1. Investigate fisher’s perception, awareness, and knowledge of impacts of climate
change on fisher’s communities.
2. Investigate the importance of the meteorological information for fishers’
communities and their needs for fishing activities and risk mitigation of climate
change effects.
3. Investigate the sources of fishers meteorological and CC information and the
transmission of meteorological services.
4. Estimate the fisher’s willingness to pay for improving the weather and climate
information.

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CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Impacts of climate change on the Small-Scale Marine fisheries
2.1.1 Marine ecosystem impacts
Climate change has increased the differential heating between land and oceans and
between polar and tropical regions and this will increasingly affect the intensity,
frequency and seasonality of climate patterns (e.g., El Nino, La Nina) and extreme
weather events (e.g., floods, droughts and storms) (Rosenzweig el al., 2001; Vellinga &
el al., 2000). These events will impact the stability of related marine resources. Sea level
rises, ocean acidification and changes in precipitation will significantly affect coral
reefs, wetlands, sea grass and estuaries.(Chen, 2008; Dan & Gordon, 2009)
Climate change have both physical and biological effects on marine ecosystems in terms
of a change in the distribution of species. In general, warm-water species move towards

the poles and change with respect to the size and productivity of their habitats.(Chen,
2008; FAO, 2015) In warmer ocean and seas, ecosystem productivity is likely to be
reduced. Increased temperatures will also affect the physiological processes of fish,
resulting in both positive and negative effects on fisheries systems depending on the
region and latitude. Climate change is already affecting the seasonality of biological
processes, and is changing marine food webs with unpredictable consequences for fish
production. Increased risks of species invasions and break out of diseases are other
concerns.(Cochrane & el al., 2009; Daw el al., 2009) (FAO, 2015)
2.1.2 Impacts on Small-Scale Marine fishers livelihoods
Extreme climate events have an impact on the infrastructure, ranging from locations to
post-harvest facilities and transport routes. They will also affect safety at sea and
villages, with small-scale marine fisher communities living in coastal areas at particular
risk.(Cochrane & el al., 2009; Daw et al., 2009; FAO, 2015)
Moreover, changes in distribution, and the composition of species and habitats will
require changes in fishing practices, as well as in the location of fishing and processing
facilities. (Cochrane & el al., 2009; Daw et al., 2009; FAO, 2015)
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Livelihood strategies will have to be modified with changes in fishers' migration
patterns and cause changes in the timing of fishing activities. The climate change will
affect food security through changes in habitats, stocks and species distribution,
increased variance in ecosystem productivity, and changes in livelihoods and catching
opportunities. (Allison et al., 2010)
2.2. Impacts of extreme weather events to fishing activities
Climate hazards such as typhoons, strong winds, thunderstorms, have a great impact on
fishing activities. According to the World Bank (2010), about 45 million people are
affected by typhoons in Vietnam, with over 80 different storm events and nearly 19,000
people killed from 1953–2010. The worst typhoon experienced in Vietnam was in 1997
called the Tropical Storm Linda, which killed about 3,111 people, of which a majority

came from poor fishing communities (Wikipedia, 2018). Many of these fishers and
sailors were caught at sea in the path of the storm and were unable to escape its path
(Takagi et al., 1997). In addition to the death of human beings, the storm also destroyed
at least 3,122 fishing boats. Although weather forecast and officials in Vietnam issued
warnings to the residents, it was not absorbed and obeyed because people in the region
were ignorant as they rarely experience tropical cyclones (Wikipedia, 2018).
Another climate hazard experienced was Typhoon Chanchu in 2006, which was the most
intense typhoon in the South China Sea. Although fishermen were warned, the warning
from the National Hydro-meteorological Forecast Center remained unnoticed by
many. Unfortunately, many fishers were struck by strong waves in the east coast of
Vietnam as they too slowly moved through the South China Sea. Many ships were
damaged and some sank. Typhoon Chanchu in 2006 took the lives of 158 fishermen in
Quang Nam and Quang Ngai provinces and Da Nang City. (Government of Vietnam,
2009)
2.4. Weather forecast and climate change adaptation.
Extreme weather events such as severe thunderstorms, tropical storms, windstorms, and
tornadoes, directly impact the fisheries. These hazards are becoming increasingly
frequent and intense as a result of climate change (MORE, 2016). Vietnam is
meteorologically located in the Western Pacific region, which is one of the two biggest
storm centers in the world, and faces between 5-10 storms and tropical low-pressure
7


systems a year. These storms cause immense losses in term of human life and property
(The Government of Vietnam, 2009). In places where residents rarely face storms,
erratic weather conditions can cause huge losses of human life and damage to property.
Typhoon Linda, for instance, which hit the south of Viet Nam in 1997, killed more than
3,000 fishermen and lowered over 1,000 fishing vessels is a good example of the
disasters that these storms can cause to poor fishermen. Most of the fishers have limited
access to modern equipment to detect the dangers of these events. Those that listen to

radio and television might only do so one or two days before leaving for their fishing
trip. By providing weather information and warnings to fishers that can help them make
informed decisions about when and where to fish, whether to go out into the sea in safe
areas. This not only helps save many lives but also improves the livelihoods of the
fisheries communities, as many fishers are the only providers for large families.
(Tushemereirwe et al., 2016).
As shown by recent climate experiences, like the most recent storm, especially Khanh
Hoa province, has still quite a number of limitations in the adaptive capacity to reduce
its vulnerability to climate change, including extreme events (The World Bank Group).
The capacity for managing climate risks, including seasonal forecasting, early warning
systems, disaster preparedness, mitigation, and relief, needs to be improved. In most
farming systems, adaptation has not been implemented to account for inter-annual or
inter-seasonal variations in the current climate.
2.5. Vietnam weather forecast and transmitting system
The National Hydro-Meteorological Service (NHMS) of Viet Nam plays an important
and vital role for the safety, well-being, and welfare of the population, especially in
coastal communities. It has been given the mandate to protect man and society from the
vagaries of weather, climate and water-induced disasters. It has also provided for ways
the country can use weather, climate and hydrological information in pursuing
sustainable economic development, through the timely provision and issuance of timely,
accurate and reliable information (The World Bank Group).
The National Centre for hydro-meteorological forecasting (NCHMCF), Viet Nam
provides its forecasting services through its operational units at various levels: i) the
National Centre of Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) at the central level, ii)
8


regional hydro-meteorological centers (RHMC) at the regional level and iii) provincial
hydro-meteorological centers (PHMC) at provincial level. NCHMCF Viet Nam is the
main provider of weather forecasts (including nowcasting, very short-range, shortrange, medium-range and long-range forecasts) in the country and enjoys a good

visibility in the media.
In figure 2.1 the weather forecast system traces the forecast information flows from the
center to local fishing groups. National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting
(NCHMCF) assumes the overall responsibilities for transmitting extreme weather
events information to the communities. Forecast information diffuses down to the
Central Steering committee for Nature Disaster Prevention and Control (CSCNDPC) to
the Local Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (LCHMCF) to the LSCNDPC:
Local Steering committee for Nature Disaster Prevention and Control (LSCNDPC) that
in turn are in direct contact with the fishing communities and prepare them to adapt to
extreme weather conditions. The fishers use the information to enhance decision making
and to improve adaptation.
Better forecasting of weather and climate-related events should allow economic sectors,
such as agriculture, fisheries, and aquaculture to operate better and increase their
productivity (The World Bank Group). The Mission of the (NCHMCF) is to provide the
nation, specifically fishing communities, with forecasts of typhoons and other weather
parameters, and information about ocean state, earthquakes, tsunamis and other
phenomena related to earth systems through well-integrated programs. These services
have significant economic and social benefits that are otherwise very difficult to
quantify (NCAER, 2010). The actual and potential benefits to fishers, fish farmers,
firms, and national bodies from modern meteorological and related services are
substantial and, till today, they are inadequately recognized and insufficiently exploited
in Vietnam. Improved weather forecast can be considered an economic service for which
most fishers are willing to pay.

9


Figure 2.1 Viet Nam weather forecast and transmitting in system
2.6 Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) to estimate Willingness To Pay for
weather and climate services.

CVM is known as one of the major tools to assess the total value of non-market goods
(Bett et al., 2013; Carlsson et al., 2005; Cocou Jaurès Amegnaglo et al, 2017). The
objective of the CVM is to measure an individual’s monetary value for non-market
goods by creating a hypothetical market where individual respondents are asked to
define their Willingness to Pay (WTP) for having or not having a well-defined product.
This technique of valuation pursuits the values of Willingness To Pay (WTP) base on
hypothetical markets or imaginary markets. (Mitchell and Carson, 1989; Anuradhi
Dulangi Jaysinghe, 2017). Market prices get from the interaction of consumer demand
and supply. Contingent valuation relies on the creation of hypothetical market like
scenarios in which the non-market good or service could be provided to generate
experimental conditions to provide data that are used to estimate benefits (Bishop et
al.1995; Kimberly S. Rollins and Joseph Shaykewich, 2003). The stakeholders is
sampled and survey instruments based on the hypothesized markets are used to take data
that in turn is used in models that predict the maximum amounts people would be willing
to pay (WTP) for a specific level or quality of service, contingent on the market scenario
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proposed. A feature of well-designed CV studies is that respondents are rarely asked to
value explicitly the good in question, rather, the experimental design alters
characteristics of the good, including the price, and respondents are asked whether or
not they would purchase the good at a given price. This notion of a take-it-or-leave-it
response to a given price for a well-defined service is consistent with market experiences
of most respondents (Mitchell & Carson 1990) Economic values measured by CV
methods are theoretically consistent with economic benefits measures that arise from
market data.
Some studies have used the contingent valuation technique to determine the willingness
of farmers to pay for weather and climate information and estimated the benefits
generated by providing weather forecast information to users (Phil L. Kenkel and
Patricia E. Norris, 1995; Kimberly S. Rollins and Joseph Shaykewich, 2003; Cocou

Jaurès Amegnaglo et al, 2017)
The CV questionnaire for this study was designed to take into account the substitutes
available for the Weather service, as well as to determine characteristics of commercial
users. There are several ways of requesting a fisher to reveal his/her willingness to pay
(WTP): Open-ended questions, closed-ended questions (payment cards). The
questionnaire format refers to the use of a hypothetical 'yes' or 'no' question to elicit
respondents' preferences for a proposed service change. This questionnaire format is
widely accepted as a preferred format because it has been shown to be incentive
compatible, thus limiting incentives for respondents to give biased answers.
2.7 Conceptual framework
The understanding of fishers’ climate change awareness is one of the top priorities in
climate change research (Ajuang et al. 2016). Studies on climate change in developing
countries suggest that the vast majority of people are not aware of climate change despite
their high vulnerability to it, (Pew Research Centre 2006; Pugliese and Ray 2009;
Godfrey et al. 2009). However, studies conducted in Vietnam show that residents of Ha
Tinh province were very aware about the risks of CC impacts to their livelihoods and
community sustainability (Nguyen, King and Boon, 2016). Several studies have
reported that national, cultural and local characteristics play a key role in shaping
individual-level perceptions and awareness of climate change (Leiserowitz 2006;
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Brechin and Bhandari 2011). Lee et al. (2015) thus emphasized the importance of
identifying the key individual-level predictors of climate change awareness and risk
perception for each locale separately. Climate change awareness can be increased by the
frequent and continuous provision of meteorological information supplied by
information services to local communities. Climate change information services (CS)
may be defined as providing the scientific information and products that enhance users’
knowledge and understanding how these information influence their decisions and
actions (Dent, 2016). These services are made most effective through collaboration

between providers and users. The levels of awareness and risk perception depend on the
quality and frequency of the weather and CC information distributed to fisher
communities. The information depends on the media used, and the noise in the
communication system. The messages transmitted are modified by the sociodemographic, economic and physical environmental characteristic of the community.
The meteorological services combined with education and indigenous knowledge can
assist in climate change events risk reduction and community adaptation (Cherotich et
al. 2012). Figure 2.2 shows the various sources of weather services. The meteorological
services supply weather and CC information through various media. The underlying
theory is that meteorological information influences CC awareness, knowledge and
preparedness for climatic events. The information supplied by the meteorological
service is combined with weather and CC information from indigenous knowledge of
community fishers and modified by socio-demographic, economic and physical
characteristics of the community. The quality of the information depends on the
communication noise existing in the channels employed for information diffusion. The
frequency and quality of the weather and CC information is used to formulate the coping
and adaptation mechanism of the fishers.
Despite the advances of knowledge in climate modeling and updating of projections, the
information services and forecasts may still be grossly intricate for the use by local
fishers. Although the provision of services is an opportunity for accessing climate
monitoring information, the service providers may encounter problems in delivering the
services (Dent, 2012). The timeliness and conversion of the meteorological services may
encounter difficulties putting the information into an operational routine, as timings of
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updates may be unsuitable and there is always the possibility of break-down in
communication links. Hence it is the responsibility of the information service providers
to continuously evaluate the quality and timeliness of the information transmitted to the
community. In this study, I will attempt to evaluate the quality and timeliness of the CC
information used by fishers in their decision- making.

Sources of climate change information and support services

Indigenous

Development

Meteorological

Agencies

Knowledge

Electronic

Community

Mass media

Print media

media

Channels

TV & Radio

Newspapers

Internet

Extension
officials

SMS support
Internet
Fishing community access to CC information
Economic

Socio-

SMS support

Physical

Demographic

Effective use of CC information by fishers

Community adaptation capacity to climate CC

Figure 2.2 Conceptual framework of meteorological information forecast
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CHAPTER 3
MATERIALS AND METHODS
3.1. Study areas
Vinh Nguyen ward is south of Nha Trang city with a long tradition of marine fisheries.
With a harbor and many islands and islets, Vinh Nguyen has got a good condition to

develop marine fishing activities, but almost all of fisheries in this ward are small-scale
(Thinh, Tran Cong, et al., 2015) with high vulnerability to CC and extreme weather
events.

Figure 3.1 Map showing the study areas in Vinh Nguyen ward

3.2. Data Collection
The study adopts a cross-sectional survey design in which data were collected from both
primary and secondary sources. Face - to - face interviews were employed to interview
community leaders, Nha Trang meteorological officials to obtain the types of
meteorological information transmitted to the fishing communities. A structured
questionnaire was used to collect household data while Key Informant Interviews

14