Định hướng phát triển năng lượng Việt Nam từ năm 2006 đến 201

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De phat trien kinh te xa hdi ciia dat nude vdi mifc tang GDP khoang 8,5 - 9% trong mdt nam va cao hon trong thdi gian 2006 - 2015, yeu eau tieu thy dien dugc dy bao tang 17%/nam (dy bao eo ban) va 20% (dy bao myc cao) trong giai doan 2006 - 2015; dy bao myc cao dUOc xac dinh la dy bao thye thi va dy bao 22%/nam cho trudng hop tang trifdng manh.

Sy phat trien ngudn nang lugng dien phai dap img yeu cau eua phu tai. Nd phai duge dam bao hieu qua chung khi xay dyng nha may thuy dien nhu ket hgp chd'ng lut, cung cap nude va san xuat dien; nha may nhiet dien dd't khi phai dygc phat trien hop ly va ed hieu qua; nha may nhiet dien dd't than phai dugc tang cudng; nha may thuy dien nhd, nang lygng mdi va nang lugng tai tao phai dugc phat trien d nhiing vung ddi nui, nang lugng dien phai dugc trao ddi vdi cac nydc trong khu vyc. Cung cap dien qud'c gia phai dugc dam bao va phat trien ben vung. Giai doan chuan bj thiet ke nha may dien hat nhan phai dugc hoan thanh.

Nhting trung tam dieu phd'i dien d cac viing trong ca nude phai dugc phat trien phii hgp de dam bao do tin cay ciia cung cap dien dja phuong va giam tdn that edng sua't ky thuat cho toan he thdng va dam bao tinh kinh te cua san xuat va ddng gdp vao sy phat trien kinh te xa hdi eho moi viing va cho toan dat nude.

Sy phat trien eiia nhUng ngudn dien mdi phai dugc tinh de'n theo chieu sau va ddi mdi edng nghe d nha may dien de dam bao tieu chuan

mdi trudng, sCl dung cdng nghe hien dai cho

nhung nha may dien mdi...

1. Cd ca'u he thong dien va tinh hinh san xuift nang lUdng dien

Tinh hinh san xuat dien eiia he thdng dien Viet Nam dugc gidi thieu trong cac bang 1, 2,3,4.

Bang 1. Oct cau he thdng dien nam 2007

Toan he thong

Thupc EVN: -Nha may thuy dien - NMNO dot than - NMNB dot dau, khi Tram phat dien Diesel va thuy dien nho Ngoai EVN

Cong suat dat

MW

13.512

9.386 4.393 1.545 3.448 454 3.675

%

69,46 32,51 11,43 25,52 3,36

%

73,68 31,27 13,06 29,35 0,06 26,26

Bang 2. Tmh hinh san xuat dien nam 2007

NMND

Nhiet dien than

- Pha Lai 1 - Pha Lai 2 - Uong Bi - U o n g B i M R I - Ninh Binh

Nhiet dien dau

- Thu DCrc - Can Tho

Tuabin khi

- Ba Ria -Phil My 2.1 - Phu My 1 -Phu My 4 - Thu DCfc -Can Tho

To may

4 x 1 1 0 2 x 3 0 0 (50 + 55)

1 x 3 0 0 4 x 2 5

3 1

8GT, 2ST 4ST, 2ST 3 G T 1 S T 2GT, 1ST

4 4

P«,(MW)

1.545

440 600 105 300 100

200

165 35

3.248

399 982 1.138 468 111 150

San liTdng (MWh)

8.973

2.832 4.198 694 520 729

740

603 137

18.880

1.902 5.843 7.992 3,142 70 151

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24KH&CNN - 8909/2009

Bang 3. So gid van hanh cUa NMND (2002-2007)

NMND 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 NMND dot than

Pha Lai 1 Pha Lai ii Uorg Bi UongHMRI Ninh Binh

5.168 2.252 6.638

5.490 5.861 5.337 6.962

6.810 5.002 5.870 6.095

6.315 5.628 7130 6419

6.830 6.676 7191 7.206

7.942 6.437 6.996 6.613 1.733 7.292

NMND dot dau

Thu OLTC Can Tho

Tuabin khi(da

BaRia Phu My 2.1 Phu My 1 Phu My 4 Thu DCrc Can Tho

4.921 6.242

J khi vac

5.669 1.705 5.221

1.584 1.208

4.224 5.848

hu trinh

r 5.358 4.331 5.748

510 329

2.306 5.347

ion hop)

5.402 5.457 5.835 3.456 135 1.024

3.424 3.945

5.470 4.451 6.499 6.221 269 941

2.858 J 3.878

5.401 7.543 5.759 6.842 258 726

3.654 4.161

^4.970 6.790 7.218 6.858 599 1.005

Bang 4. Suat tieu thu nhien lieu

Pha Lai 1

Pha Lai 11 Uong Bi UongBiMRI Ninh Binh

438 344 (standard coal) 561

565

9,25 8,66 11,47

9,55

NMND dot dau

Thfl DiJc Can Tho

271-248 277

5,83 - 5,98 5,52

Tuabin khi (dau, khi va chu trinh hon hop)

BaRja

Phu My 2.1

Phli My 1

Phu My 4 Thu DOc

Can Tho

13.423 BTU/kWh; 318g/kWh 11.792 BTU/kWh; 270g/kWh 10.987 BTU/kWh; 272g/kWh 11.575 BTU/kWh; 264g/kWh 320 g/kWh 294g/kWh

GT 0,40 - 0,46; ST; 5,79 1,48 (GT: 0,32-0,39;

ST 3,74) 1,91 (GT: 0,38-0,64; ST 4,62) 1,70 (GT: 0,39-0,60; ST: 4,1) 0,45-0,51

0,29

Dya tren djnh hudng ciia Tdng sd 56 VI, ke

hoach phat trien dien nhUsau.

San xuat nang lupng dien: de thoa man nhu

cau ve cdng sua't eiia nen kinh te qud'c dan, san xua't nang lugng dien Viet Nam se la 190.047 ty kWh vao nam 2015 va 431.664 ty kWh vao nam 2025.

Dy bao nay la phuong an eg sd. Phuong an eao san xua't dien se la 215.817 ty kWh vao nSm 2015 va 489.621 ty kWh vao n§m 2025.

Ke hoach phat trien nguon dien:

Dd'i vdi phuong an eg sd, tdng cdng sua't dien se duge xay dyng them trong nam 2006 - 2015 ke ca dien nhap khau se la 75.679 MW trong dd 34.590 MW cho nha may nhiet dien dd't than; 12.376 MW cho nha may nhiet dien dot khi; 4.000 MW cho nha may nhiet dien hat nhan; 12.648 MW cho thuy dien, 4.800 MW cho nha may thuy dien tich nSng, 2.134 MW eho nha may thuy dien nlid va nha may nang lugng tai tao va 5.131 MW do nhap khau.

Phat trien he thdng dien:

PhUdng an cd ban cho nhung nam 2006 - 2025 se dugc xay dyng nhu sau:

- 8.921 km dudng day 500 kV, 13.761 km dudng day 220kV va 18.159 km dudng day llOkV.

- Tram bien the 500kV ed cdng sua't 48.750 MVA, tram bien the 220kV cd cdng sua't 110.059 MVA va tram bien the llOkV cd cdng sua't 125.560 MVA.

- 256.560 km dUdng day trung ap va ha ap va 124.000 MVA tram phan phd'i dien.

Dau tu vd'n cho dien tU nam 2006 - 2025 la: 80 ty USD trong dd 52 ty USD eho ngudn cdng sua't va 28 ty USD cho he thdng tai dien. Trung binh moi nSm 4 t y USD.

2. Phan cong nghiep than:

Tdng ngudn than tren pham vi toan qud'c da dugc khai thac - tham tra - danh gia tai thdi diem thang 1/2006, xin tham khao trong bang 5.

Tdng san lugng khai thac (mifc A + B + 01 + 02) CLia cac loai than tren toan qud'c dugc huy ddng cho ke hoach phat trien cdng nghiep than Viet Nam trong giai doan 2006-2025 la 3.695.447 ngan tan (tham khao bang 6).

Tdng cae loai than d Viet Nam vao khoang 3.625.966 ngan tan. San lugng than se dUOc khai thac la 46 trieu tan nam 2010, 46 - 50 trieu tan vao nam 2015, 57 - 63 trieu tan vao n§m 2020 va 59 -66 trieu tan vao nSm 2025.

Dinh hudng khai thac hpp ly va giam chi phi khai thac than

Dd'i vdi khai thac than Id thien: cung vdi tang nang lyc mdt sd md than, edng nghiep than se md rdng pham vi ciia md than den eye dai.

Dd'i vdi khai thac than ham Id: ciing vdi sU md rdng va tang cudng san lugng khai thac cdng

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Khai thac va phat trien nhOmg md than nhd dja phUdng: lap lai trat ty trong khai thac than va lya chgn he thdng de tang trOf lugng va xay dyng nhOmg yeu td mdi vdi tien trinh hien dai.

Djnh hudng ke hoach cung cap than cua mo than Viet Nam nhusau:

Than ciia md than Mao Khe se cung cap chinh cho nha may nhiet dien Pha Lai va nha may nhiet dien Mao Khe.

Than cGa md than Vang Danh, Udng Bi, Yen Tif, Bao Dai va Dong Vdng se cung cap than cho nha may nhiet dien Udng Bi (ed the cho Hai Phdng), Phan lan van Dien, Khu edng nghiep Hoanh Bd va cho xua't khau.

Than cua md than Hdn Gai se cung cap than cho nha may nhiet dien Quang Ninh, Ninh Binh, Hai Phdng, Thai Binh, ViJng Ang va eho xua't khau.

Than eiia md than Cam Pha se cung cap chinh cho nha may nhiet dien Quang Ninh, Cam Pha, Mdng Duong, Hai Phdng, nhOmg nha

may nhiet dien khac va xua't khau.

Viing ndi dja se cung ca'p than chinh eho nha may nhiet dien Na Duong, Cao Ngan va nhOng nha may nhiet dien trong viing. Viing tam giac sdng Hdng se cung cap than cho nhOmg nha may

tin liim

Tdng cua to^n qudc

VCing than Quang Ninh Than biin Vung n6i dja Mo than dja phong

Vung Kho4i chau (diSn tich 80km^)

Tong c^c loai than

Than antraxit Than bitum Than nSu Than bun

Tdng vung than Quang Ninh

Vung Hon Gai Vung U6ng Bi Viing Cam Pha

Nguon than a|a chat theo muc tieu nbi niroic

Total 6.164.848

4.049.559 331.790 165.109 37.434 1.580.956

6.127.414

4.118.349 1.580.956 96.319 331.790

4.049.559

740.417 1.346.279 1.962.863

A + B + C 4.992.222

100,00% 3.464J16 235.438 165.109 18.478 1.088.481

4.973.744

3.553.506 1.088.481 96.319 235.438

3.484.716

100,00% 713.791 1.252.578 1.518.347

A + B 370.609

7,42% 315.155 0 55.454 0 0

370.609

327.765 0 42.844 0

315.155

9,04% 37.620 17.309 260.326

Cl

2.157.236 43.21% 1.41.399 128.827 91.901 10.238 524.871

2.146.998

1.439.825 524.871 53.475 128.827

1.401.399

40,22% 229.689 444.107 727.604

C2 2.464.377

49,36% 1.768.161 106.611 17.755 8.240 563.610

2.456.137

1.785.916 563.610 0 106.611

1.768.161

50,74% 446.582 791.163 530.417

P 1.172.626

564.843 96.352 0 18.956 492.475

1.153.670

564.843 492.475 0 96.352

564.843

26.626 93.701 444.516

n

/ 1 2 3 //

1 2 3

4 Ten vung

Tdng tren toan qudc

Viing Thm Quang Ninh

Vung Cam Pha VUng Hdn Gai VOng U6ng Bl

VCingNgidja

VCing than nOi dja Than bun Than dja phuong Vung Binh minh - Khoai chau

Tai nguyen than dja chat duoc huy dong: 1.000 tan Tdng

3.695.447

2.826.620

1.301.280 443.213 1.082.127

235.438 18.478 514.871

2006-2010 285.357

269.247

130.898 71.231 67118

16.109

9.276 1.833 5.000 0

2011-2015 391.376

36S.945

178.266 83.250 107.428

22.432

11.073 2.500

1.212

1.636

2016-2020 473.347

390.101

195.064 65.894 129.143

83S4S

11.897 2.500 11.667 57182

2021-2025 547.024

393.100

196.279 57.532 139.290

153.924

11.474 2.500 17.222 122.727

Sau 2025 1.998.344

1.405227

ioo.m

165.307 639.148

593.117

46.320 9.145 194.327 343.326

Bang 7. Tien trinh khai thac than theo phuo'ng an da dupe chinh ly den nam 2025 (TVN)

VUng Cam Pha Vung Hbn Gai Vung U6ng B( Vung n6i dja

San li/Ong khai thac (nghin tan) 2010

41.340

20.825 8.400 10.100 2.150

2015 49.015

23.850 9.800 12.900 2.465

2020 51.850

26.205 7.700 12.480 5.465

2030 44.815

20.200 5.700 12.000 6.915

2040 42.315

18700 5.400 12.000 6.215

2050 38.700

15.700 5.400 12.000 5.600

nhiet dien tuong lai se xay dyng sau nam 2010 theo Id trinh.

Ngoai ra phai giai quye't van de nhap khau than cho nhOmg nha may nhiet dien mdi d mien Trung va d mien Nam.

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26KH&CNN - 8909/2009

BVT: trieu tan

Nam

1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

San lirong

2,7 7,7 8,8

10,1 12,5 15,2 16,3 16,8 16,8 17,7 20,05 18,6 17,3

Bang 9. Tieu thu dau

DVT: 1.000 tan

3. Cong nghiep dau mo

a. Cung cap dau, cung cap khi va nhu cau

dau tho

„ , , J.. Bang 8. San luang dau tho

San lygng dau thd khai thac duy tri d mUc tang trudng eao, dau thd xua't khau duoc ehl ra trong bang 8, tieu thy dau trong bang 9, ty le san xua't, tieu thu trong bang 10.

San xua't va tieu thu khf:

Hien nay khi dang dugc khai thac khoang 7 ty m l

Cho phat dien: khoang 86%

Cho cdng nghiep phan bdn: 10%

Cho. cac cdng nghiep khac: 4%

De'n nay san lugng tdng dau khi dugc khai thac da dat 238 trieu tan tinh de'n ngay 31/12/2006 trong dd 206,1 tan la dau va 32,4 ty m^ gas.

Djnh hudng cho chuong trinh phat trien dau khise la:

San luang dau va khi se khai thac:

2006 - 2010: 25 - 30 trieu TOE/nam trong dd dau thd ndi dja 18 - 19 trieu tan, khi 8 - 10 ty m^ va dau thd dugc khai thac d nydc ngoai la 0,2 - 1 ty tan.

2011 - 2015: 31 - 34 trieu TOE/nam trong dd dau thd khai thac trong ndi dja la 16 - 1 8 trieu ta'n, khi la 11 - 15 ty m l va dau tho khai thac d nude ngoai la 1,2 - 3 trieu tan.

2016 - 2025: 34 - 35 trieu TOE/nam trong dd dau thd dugc khai thac trong ndi dia la 13 - 15 trieu tan, khi la 15 - 16 ty m^ va dau thd khai thac d nydc ngoai la 3,5 - 5,5 trieu tan.

Tham dd dau khi tie'p tuc dygc khao sat va phat trien d nhOmg viing dau va khi mdi se dugc, khai thac.

Bang 10. San xuat va tieu thu

DVT: 1.000 tan

Nam

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Tieu thu dau cua ca nirdc

8,139 9,236 9,950 10,447 10,774 11,547

Nam

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Tieu thu 170 202 323 404 518 622 751 896

San xuat

1 140 268 298 347 363 366 343

San xuat/tieu thu (%)

0,6 69 83 74 67 58 49 38

De an dudng d'ng dan khi se phat trien de cung cap khi cho nha may dien va cho hd gia dinh. Ke hoach chil dao ve he thdng sif dyng khi se phat trien d mien Nam va mien Bac Viet Nam;

Cdng nghe san xua't dau khf se dugc phat trien de dam bao an ninh nhien lieu.

Sy phat trien eua nhiimg trung tam Igc dau se duge thye hien theo ke hoach.

Petro Viet Nam da xay dung cae nha may nhiet dien ddt khi vdi ke hoach cdng sua't:

Ca M a u l : 750 MW Ca Mau 2: 750MW (3/2008) Nhon Trach 1: 450 MW (3/2008) Nhgn Trach 2: 750 MW (2009) 4. Ket luan

Ve CO ban cdng nghiep nang lugng Viet Nam da dap Ung ddi hdi ciia san xua't va hoat dpng xa hdi. An ninh nang lugng cung nhU dieu kien ty nhien va thi trudng nang lugng the gidi de'n nay edn chua hoan chinh. An ninh nang lugng dat dygc sy dam bao ban dau, nhung chiing ta phai ehu y tie'p theo.

Ngudn nang lugng phai dugc sif dung va khai thac hgp ly va hieu qua hgn.

Nang lugng phai duge dam bao de cung cap du vdi chat lugng cao, gia thanh hgp ly cho sy phat trien kinh te xa hdi; thj trudng nang lUdng phai dygc hinh thanh chac chan d Viet Nam.

Cdng nghiep nang lygng can thiet phai phat trien nhanh, hieu qua ben vOmg va bao ve mdi trudng.

(PV. Theo ban tieng Anh cua ThS. Le TuSn Phong 12/2008)

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