Strengthening agricultural resilience against saline intrusion in ca mau peninsula in the context of climate change

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI
VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY

NGUYEN VAN DUONG

STRENGTHENING AGRICULTURAL
RESILIENCE AGAINST SALINE INTRUSION
IN CA MAU PENINSULA IN THE CONTEXT
OF CLIMATE CHANGE

MASTER’S THESIS


VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI
VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY

NGUYEN VAN DUONG

STRENGTHENING AGRICULTURAL
RESILIENCE AGAINST SALINE INTRUSION
IN CA MAU PENINSULA IN THE CONTEXT
OF CLIMATE CHANGE

MAJOR: CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT
CODE: 8900201.02QTD

RESEARCH SUPERVISOR:
ASSOC. PROF. MAKOTO TAMURA
ASSOC. PROF. TRINH CONG VAN

Hanoi, 2021

PLEDGE
I assure that this thesis is the results of my own research and has not been published.
The use of other research’s result and other documents must comply with regulations. The
citations and references to documents, books, research papers, and websites must be in the
list of references of the thesis.
AUTHOR OF THE THESIS

NGUYEN VAN DUONG


ACKNOWLEDGMENT
I would like to express my respecting to Assoc. Prof. Makoto Tamura who
introduced me to this exciting topic and supervising me during this time. My thanks also
go to Assoc. Prof. Trinh Cong Van for his comments during this thesis work. Their
comment and essential enabled me to complete this study on time. My warm thanks also
go to members of the Master of Climate Change and Development office for their
relentless supporting during this time. Finally, my grateful acknowledgment to my friends
and family for their recommendations, suggestions and supportive of my study in VJU.


TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................... i
LIST OF FIGURES ............................................................................................................ii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS .......................................................................................... iii
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 1
1.1. The necessary of the research ................................................................................................... 1
1.2. Overview of research in Vietnam and International scope............................................... 2
1.2.1. Climate change and climate change impact ........................................................ 3

1.2.2. Impact of climate change to agriculture .............................................................. 5
1.2.3. SLR and Saline intrusion impact in the 21st century .......................................... 5
1.2.4. Adaptation strategies ........................................................................................... 6
1.2.5. Mitigation strategies ............................................................................................ 8
1.2.6. Ca Mau peninsula natural condition .................................................................... 9
1.3. The research questions ............................................................................................................. 11
1.4. Research objectives ................................................................................................................... 11
1.5. Scope of the research ................................................................................................................ 12
1.6. Framework of the study ........................................................................................................... 13
CHAPTER 2. METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................... 16
2.1. Research task .............................................................................................................................. 16
2.2. Data and survey collection methods ..................................................................................... 18
2.3. Data analysis methods .............................................................................................................. 19
2.3.1. Economic benefit analysis method between traditional and transitional model 19
2.3.2. Risk analysis method between traditional and transitional model .................... 20
CHAPTER 3. ANALYSIS OF CURRENT ADAPTIVE ACTIONS TO SALINE
INTRUSION IN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR ................................................................. 22
3.1. Overview of current adaptive action to saline intrusion in agricultural sector ......... 22
3.2. Economic benefit comparison between traditional agriculture method and
agricultural transition ........................................................................................................................ 25
3.2.1. Income ............................................................................................................... 27
3.2.2. Expense .............................................................................................................. 28
3.2.3. Profit .................................................................................................................. 30
3.3. Risks comparison between traditional agriculture and agricultural transition in
terms of risk related to saline intrusion ........................................................................................ 30
3.4. Impacts of agricultural transition to natural environment .............................................. 32
3.5. Impacts of agricultural transition to GHGs emission ....................................................... 33
3.6. Impacts of climate change to agricultural transition ........................................................ 36

3.7. Overall discussion: SWOT analysis of rice-shrimp model ............................................ 39
CHAPTER 4. PROPOSAL OF RECOMMENDATIONS TO INCREASE RESILIENCE
IN AGRICULTURE AGAINST SALINE INTRUSION .................................................. 42
4.1. Recommendation to increase agricultural resilience against saline intrustion .......... 42
4.1.1. Overall recommendations to increase agricultural resilience against saline
intrustion ...................................................................................................................... 42
4.1.2. Increase financial resource to cope with saline intrusion .................................. 44
4.1.3. Promote the value of transitional agriculture model ......................................... 49
4.1.4. Environment ...................................................................................................... 50
4.1.5. Empowerment .................................................................................................... 51
4.1.6. Infrastructure improvement ............................................................................... 53
4.2. Limitation of the research and future work ........................................................................ 54
CHAPTER 5. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................... 57
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................... 59
APPENDIX ........................................................................................................................ 63


LIST OF TABLES

Table 3.1. Rice production in An Bien District ........................................................................ 27
Table 3.2. Comparison between income from rice monoculture and rice-shrimp
farming model ..................................................................................................................................... 28
Table 3.3. Comparison between expense from rice monoculture and rice-shrimp
farming model ..................................................................................................................................... 29
Table 3.4. Comparison between risk and opportunity from rice monoculture and riceshrimp farming model....................................................................................................................... 32
Table 3.5. Comparison between rice monoculture and rice-shrimp farming model in
terms of impact to environment ..................................................................................................... 33
Table 3.6. Souces of activity data and emission fators .......................................................... 35
Table 3.7. Comparison between rice monoculture and rice-shrimp farming model in
terms of GHGs emission .................................................................................................................. 36

i


LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1. Salinity boundary in the Mekong Delta ............................................................ 6
Figure 1.2. Map of Ca Mau peninsula ............................................................................... 10
Figure 1.3. Research objetives ........................................................................................... 12
Figure 1.4. Framework of the study .................................................................................. 15
Figure 2.1. Research tasks ................................................................................................. 16
Figure 2.2. Illustration of the risk concepts of the IPCC WGII AR5 (IPCC, 2014) ......... 21
Figure 3.1. The shrimp culture area by farming systems in the Mekong Delta (MD) ...... 22
Figure 3.2. Rice-shrimp farming area in some communes in Kien Giang Province ......... 23
Figure 3.3. Development zoning of the rice-shrimp farming (yellow part) ...................... 24
Figure 3.4. Economic benefit comparison between farming methods .............................. 30
Figure 3.5. SWOT analysis of rice-shrimp model ............................................................. 40
Figure 4.1. Triple bottom line framework (HBS, 2020).................................................... 42
Figure 4.2. Provincial spending in Ca Mau Province ........................................................ 45
Figure 4.3. Provincial spending in Kien Giang Province .................................................. 45
Figure 4.4. Traditional production value chain ................................................................. 49
Figure 4.5. Production value change development ........................................................... 50
Figure 4.6. Unemployment rate of labour force at working age in rural area by gender in
Kien Giang Province .......................................................................................................... 52
Figure 4.7. Unemployment rate of labour force at working age by gender and by
residence in Ca Mau ........................................................................................................... 53

ii


LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

GSO:
HBS:
IPCC:
MARD:
MRD:
MONRE:
MOC:
SLR:
UNDP:
WB:

General Statistics Office of Vietnam
Harvard Business School
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
Mekong River Delta
Ministry of Nature Resources and Environment
Ministry of Construction
Sea level rise
United Nations Development Programme
World Bank

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CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. The necessary of the research
At the end of 2015, severe dought has impacted all provinces in Mekong Delta and
other parts in Central regions of Vietnam, affecting millions of people, especially
people living in coastal areas. Drought has caused water shortage and saline intrusion

in Mekong delta, up to 90 kilometer inlands (UNDP, 2016). The impact of drought is
considered as the most serious within 100 years in the region, in which Kien Giang and
Ca Mau Province are reported with the highest damages. The unexpected occurance of
drought and the intrusion of salt water extends up to 20-25 km further inland than
average (MARD, 2016) havebrought up the concern of climate change, natural disaster
and food security. Climate change has caused the increasing average sea level,
abnormal climatic condition and many natural hazards. Climate change also contributes
to the loss caused by El Niño (ENSO), both in intensity and frequency (NOAA, 2020).
El Niño is a phenomenon consisting of changing ocean temperatures in the equatorial
Pacific (NCSU, 2016). El Niño is considered as one of the main drivers of extreme
climate variations, including changes in the space-time patterns of floods, droughts,
cyclone/severe storms activity, cold/hot spells etc (Subiah & Kishore, 2005).
Elicited by the El Niño, the drought has resulted in adverse impacts, such as reduced
agricultural production, which limit the livelihoods and aggravates food insecurity in
poor and vulnerable communities (Nguyen, 2016). The severe drought and salinity
intrusion strongly affected 11 of the 13 provinces in the MRD in 2015. Around
400,000 ha of cropland have been affected, of which 25,900 ha were left fallow. Rice
areas affected by drought and salinity intrusion rapidly increased from 139,000 ha in
mid-March 2016 to 224,552 ha by mid-April 2016. The MARD report updated on 15
April 2016 showed 208,394 households lacked freshwater for domestic use. Water
shortage and salinity intrusion have also affected 13,000 ha of cash crops, 25,500 ha of
fruit trees and 14,400 ha of aquaculture. Other major challenges include increases in
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climate-related diseases and decreases in food supply, especially for the children and
women (CGIAR, 2016).
According to recent data (DWRM, 2016a), the water discharge in upstream of Mekong
River declined by 900m3/s. Meanwhile, water levels in middle and downstream of
Mekong River increased by 0.1-1.5m due to tidal rise. Salinity intrusion led to

increased salinity of water in rivers and irrigation canals. Salinity (4g/l) expanded
through Tien and Hau Rivers by up to 45-65km and 55-60km, respectively. The
drought has thus resulted in the decrease of groundwater levels and the most extensive
salinity intrusion in last 90 years (DWRM, 2016b).
Ca Mau peninsula is located the southernmost projection of Vietnam, lying between
the South China Sea on the east and the Gulf of Thailand on the west, with drainage to
each. Ca Mau peninsula contains Can Tho City, Hau Giang Province, Soc Trang
Province, Bac Lieu Province, Ca Mau Province and a part of Kien Giang Province.
This region has very dense watershed, which create a favorable condition to saline
intrusion. Therefore, actions should be made to strengthen resilience for people living
in the regions, especially vulnerable group, including the poor, women and people
living in saline intruded areas.
Resilience is the ability of a human or natural system to withstand the impacts of
exogenous shocks and to cope with or rebound from them. The term encompasses the
capacity of a system to face multiple shocks and stressors-socioeconomic, market
related, climate related-and withstand them.
Climate resilience is strengthening a system to withstand climate-related shocks or
stressors where adaptation and resilience intersect. It constitutes an important and
growing subset of building system-level resilience to multiple shocks. Climate
resilience is the capacity of a system to cope with, or recover from, those effects, while
retaining the essential components of the original system.
1.2. Overview of research in Vietnam and International scope

2


1.2.1. Climate change and climate change impact
Climate change has been a very hot debated topic in recently. The evidence of climate
change has appeared in every part of the world, from the most remoted area to the big
cities. Vietnam is considered as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change,

and Mekong Delta is 1 out of 5 deltas being the most vulnerable to climate change
(IPCC, 2007).
Knowing well the impact of climate change, Vietnamese Government has developed
and implemented National target programs on coping with climate change, involving
various level of ministries and provinces. Each level of institutions has developed
action plan to response to both urgent and long-term impact of climate change; many
researches have been completed in different aspects and sectors.
In 2016, MONRE has issues ―Climate change and sea level rises scenarios for Viet
Nam‖ to provide the trends and information related to climate change and sea level rise
(MONRE, 2016). This report is a very crucial document for many researches later
because of its relevance and urgency. By providing different scenarios in sea level rise,
rainfall and temperature in next decades, this issue has provided sound foundation for
future estimation and responses to climate change in different regions in Vietnam.
In 2020, Prime Minister has issued Decision No. 1055 promulgating national climate
change adaptation plan for 2021-2030 period with a vision by 2050 to plan for climate
change adaptation until 2050. This Decision has again emphasized impact of climate
change and Vietnamese Government’s concern about adaptive action of vulnerable
regions in the country, in which developing agriculture should be integrated with
climate change adaptation, and smart agriculture practices adaptable to climate change
are also highly recommended.
In 2018, MARD has issued Resolution No. 120/NQ-CP on sustainable and climateresilient development of the Mekong delta. This document has focused on 3 main
items:

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-

Establish agricultural production structure according to three focuses: aquatic
products - fruit trees - rice in association with ecological sub-zones.

-

Establish an appropriate agricultural economic structure and maintain the link in the
supply chain and deep participation in the global value chain.

-

Develop green industry with low emission and no harm to the natural ecosystem.

The above 3 documents do not cover all the policy related to climate change and
agriculture. However, it did prove the importance of adaptive actions to climate change
in terms of agriculture sector and the urgent need to increase agricultural resilience for
vulnerable regions, and Ca Mau peninsula is one of the regions that we need to pay
attention to.
This thesis used the valuable knowledge from previous studies as a background for
analysis. Mekong Delta is identified as one of the most vulnerable regions to SLR and
saline intrusion caused by climate change. The impact of saline intrusion on agriculture
is stronger after every year and the adaptive actions to its consequences should be taken
more and more urgent with careful consideration. Historically, there are many activities
to cope with SLR and saline intrusion, including building dykes, grow mangrove forest,
ect. However, these methods are not effective anymore when the intensity of SLR
increases more than before (MRC, 2011), which becomes a motivation for other
adaptive actions to climate change in these regions, in which rice-shrimp farming has
proven as an effective method so far.
In March 2021, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has issued a regional
environmental assessment report on Mekong Delta integrated climate resilience and
sustainable livelihoods project Mekong Delta in which the strategies for building
resilience in Mekong Delta have been developed. However, this report just provided
the overall strategies but not focused on the agricultural sector which will be studied in

this research.

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1.2.2. Impact of climate change to agriculture
Climate change has brought negative impacts to many aspects of society, in which
agriculture is an important sector in Vietnam’s economy. Agriculture is very sensitive
to change of surrounding environment and weather, especially when climate change is
happening more frequently. Some of the consequences of climate change affecting
agriculture are as follows:
-

Due to sea level rise (SLR), the area of continent will decrease. Accordingly, the
area for agriculture will shrink afterwards. Moreover, sea level rise will also cause
saline intrusion, which create unfavorable condition for many types of crops/trees.

-

Climate change has caused the abnormal climate condition in many regions. The
decrease or increase of temperature in a long spell can lead to low productivity, or
even complete loss of crops.

-

Natural disaster has appeared more frequently, destroying crops and infrastructure.
Drought and saline intrusion lead to lack of irrigation water whilst flood leads to
inundation in many low geographical areas, causing loss in both human lives and
asset.

1.2.3. SLR and Saline intrusion impact in the 21st century
In 2011, Vietnam’s Prime Minister has issued Decision 2139/QĐ-TTg about National
strategy on climate change, which mentioned that if sea level rises by 1 meter, Mekong
Delta will be submerged by about 30%. Accordingly, saline intrusion will occur more
and more severe. Saline intrusion has caused a lot of negative impact to different
aspects of life, including agriculture, economy and daily lives. The intrusion of sea
water has caused lack of freshwater, which led to diseases to human, destruction to
crops and erosion to infrastructure.

5


Figure 1.1. Salinity boundary in the Mekong Delta
Source: Duc Tran (2018)

1.2.4. Adaptation strategies
Adaptation: Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected
climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial
opportunities (IPCC, 2001a).
Adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change can be classified based on time
preference. Whilst adaption strategies can be implemented in case of urgency,
mitigation will take a longer time to reduce impact of climate change. Agriculture is
6


very sensitive with changes in weather and climate condition, so actions should be
carefully considered to reduce damages to the lowest level. Below are some of
suggestion to adaption with saline intrusion in relation with saline intrusion:
1) Adjust crop structure and season to suit climate change situation.
Each type of crop will suit with a specific type of climate condition. Therefore,

thorough research the characteristic of crop and weather/climate condition before
cropping is important, especially with regions enjoying changable weather/climate.
Below are some suggestion action to adjust crop structure:
-

Assess the impact of climate change (saline intrustion) on natural resources,
including but not limit to soil, water (underground and surface water) and other
micro-organism which help crop to develop.

-

Estimate impact of injury to plant structure in each season: each type of crop can
resist to external impact to a specific threshold. In term of rice, the normal threshold
for saline intrusion is 4g/litter. There are other type of crop that can be endure
higher salinity intrusion like soyal bean, peanut, and so on.

-

Research new crops/model which can resist to saline intrusion. Currently, there are
new type of rice that can endure higher saline intrustion and bring higher
production. New hybrid models are also being implemented to bring higher
efficiency like rice-shrimp farming, crab-rice-shrimp farming, and so on.

-

Plan to adjust crop structure and crop season: due to climate change, crop duration
should be match with suitable weather condition. Therefore, changing of crop
should be implemented parallel with changing crop season, lacking either criterion
will lead to lower productivity.

2) Diversify inter-cropping and rotational cropping.
Inter-cropping and rotational cropping can bring higher productivity while reduce risks
caused by saline intrusion.
3) Improve irrigation efficiency in agriculture

7


Irrigation system can be an effective way to cope with saline intrusion by circulate
freshwater. Moreover, saline intrusion will cause water shortage for agriculture, so
developing irrigation system should be prioritized in the short-term.
Ca Mau peninsula is vulnerable with saline intrusion with interlaced watershed. In the
dry season, the freshwater from Mekong delta is decreased due to both natural and
human activity, creating favorable condition for saline intrusion. In such case, saving
water should be done immediately.
4) Develop forecast system for extreme weather condition (drought, heat stress and
saline intrusion)
-

Create detailed drought map for each regions, especially the regions locating near
the estuary or the ones vulnerable to saline intrusion to have proper response
scheme.

-

Increase awareness for local people about the importance of forecast system and
methods to react with abrupt changes related to climate.

1.2.5. Mitigation strategies
Mitigation activities is any anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance

the sinks of greenhouse gases (IPCC, 2001a). Agricultural development has brought
considerable impact to environment and climate change. The overuse of water for
irrigation and fertilizer has created a great amount of GHGs, bringing agriculture as the
second GHGs source after energy. Therefore, reducing GHGs by improving techniques
in agriculture is very urgent. The following 4 techniques are recommended by World
resources institute (WRI, 2014):
-

Dry seeding: Traditionally in Asia, seedlings are transplanted into already flooded
paddies after nursery phase. However, direct seeding is now recommended by
transplanting seed directly to flooded fields or through drilling seeds into dry fields.

-

Single mid-season drawdown: single drawdown during the crop production season
to allow oxygen to penetrate the soils, which substantially lowers GHG emissions.

8


-

Alternate wetting and drying (AWD). This practice involves repeatedly flooding a
farm field, typically to a water depth of around 5 centimeters, allowing the field to
dry until the upper soil layer starts to dry out (typically when the water level drops
to around 15 centimeters below the soil surface), and then reflooding the field. This
cycle can continue from 20 days after until 2 weeks before flowering. This
approach is also known as ―controlled irrigation‖ or ―multiple irrigation,‖
depending on country and research context. Because each drying cycle sets back the
generation of methane-producing bacteria, AWD achieves even larger.

-

Aerobic rice production: Like AWD, this system involves adding irrigation water only
when needed. It avoids standing water, aiming instead to keep soils moist. This system
can drastically reduce—or nearly eliminate—methane production. In general, however,
aerobic rice production has lower yields than rice produced through traditional methods
or the three methods listed above. Still, as our case study from China shows, some
farmers are maintaining high yields by constructing raised beds and ditches, which
limit standing water to furrows.

-

Improve techniques to raise cattle: Cattle dungs also contributed to GHGs emission,
especially CH4, to reduce amount of GHGs released by raising cattle, we need to study
more thoroughly about the meal diets to limit the CH4 released by cattle to the
maximum level.

-

Improve techniques related to fertilizing: fertilizer will not only cause pollution to
natural environment but also contribute to GHGs emission. Therefore, the using of biofertilizer/bio-material will limit the impact of manmade chemical to surrounding
environment.
1.2.6. Ca Mau peninsula natural condition
According to MARD, Ca Mau peninsula is a region with complex hydrology and
geology. This region is affected by both East Sea and West Sea with 2 tidal systems,
which caused difficulties for irrigation system.
The main freshwater supplier for the region is rain and Hau River, which distributes to
other part of Ca Mau peninsula by channels and other rivers. The main river
9

distributors are Cai Lon, Cai Be, Ong Doc, Ganh Hao, My Thanh River, which flow
directly to the sea.
Saline water will follow East Sea’s tide and flow backward to mainland by Hau and Mi
Thanh River, affecting Soc Trang Province, flow backward by Ganh Hao River,
affecting Bac Lieu Province. On the west side, saline water will impact mainland by
Cai Lon, Cai Be, Ong Doc River, etc., affecting Kien Giang, Ca Mau Province.

Figure 1.2. Map of Ca Mau peninsula
10


Hau River plays a very important role to irrigation system of Ca Mau peninsula.
Volumetric flow rate in rainy season is from 16,000 to 18,000 m3/s; in dry season is
from 800 to 1,000 m3/s. The flow from Hau River contributes a significant role in
pushing saltwater in Cai Lon river. However, due to the impact of climate change and
El nino, the amount of freshwater in Hau River has reduced quite significantly.
1.3. The research questions
This research evaluates the adaptive actions to saline intrusion in Ca Mau Peninsula,
examines their impacts to different factors of society, and proposes further
recommendations. Below are research questions:
1) How important of agriculture in Ca Mau Peninsula and the impact of saline
intrusion (when the saline concentration reaches 4‰) to agriculture in Ca Mau
peninsula?
2) What actions have taken so far to cope with saline intrusion in Ca Mau peninsula?
3) Is agricultural transition really effective against saline intrusion? How did the
agriculture transition impact/ will impact to different factors of society?
4) Which aspects should be focused to increase agricultural resilience to saline
intrusion in Ca Mau peninsula?

1.4. Research objectives

11


Figure 1.3. Research objetives

The objectives of this research are set in a speficic order to answer the research
questions and to test the hypotheses mentioned earlier. Four objectives of the research
are as follows:
Objective 1: Identify the current issues, risk and loss caused by saline intrusion to
agriculture in Ca Mau peninsula.
Objective 2: Based on the results of objective 1, the current adaptive actions will be
listed out and the most representative adaptive action(s) will be chosen for next
analysis.
Objective 3: After choosing the most representative adaptive action(s) to saline
intrusion, the further analysis will be conducted in terms of different aspects, for
example: efficiency, risk and impact to environment aspect. In this part, comparison
with traditional method is necessary.
Objective 4: When the analysis is complete, the follow-up actions will be
recommended. The actions should be practical, clear and detailed.
1.5. Scope of the research
12


Geographical scope: the research will focus on regions seriously affected by saline
intrusion in Ca Mau peninsula. Normally, the research locations are located near
coastal areas and estuary. This region is famous for its dense watershed which has
many big rivers like Hau River, Cai Lon River, etc. so the area being intruded by
salinity can take up a large proportion.

Sectoral scope: Agriculture will be focused on this research. Rice is a staple
agrilcultural product in Vietnam, accounting for 77% of the total agriculture area. The
other important crop after rice is maize (11%) and cassava (5%) and industrial crops
such as coffee, rubber, cashew, etc (CIAT, 2017). In Mekong Delta, where rice export
is accounted for up to 90% of total rice export in Vietnam, research to improve
productivity and reduce impact of climate change and natural disaster is becoming
more and more urgent than ever.
1.6. Framework of the study
Saline intrusion is the movement of saline water into freshwater aquifers (Werner and
Simmons, 2009). The causes behind these natural conditions can be classified into
anthropogenic factors and natural ones. The former factors are caused by human
activities like ground water extraction and sand-mining activities. The latter ones are
attributable to different reasons including sea level rise, extreme drought, etc.
Increasing sea level will create a favorable condition for sea water to reach further
inland while drought will decrease freshwater amount in land, which reduce seaward
movement of freshwater to prevent salt water from encroaching on freshwater aquifers.
Saline intrusion impacts many sectors and regions, especially coastal areas. In this
research, the focused sector is agriculture and the adaptive actions of agriculture to
saline intrusion. To cope with saline intrusion, agricultural transion is needed to adapt
with current natural condition and avoid potential loss caused by saline intrusion. To
ensure the smooth and efficiency of agricultural transition, a lot of effort and
investment should be made including capital investment, technology enhancement,
labor, infrastructure development, policy support, etc. Finally, efficiency of agricultural
13


transition will be evaluated by the impacts to natural environment, economic efficiency
– income generated by the models and benefit to overall economy.
Agricultural transition is adapted model from traditional rice monoculture to adapt to
climate change. Currently, there are many types of agricultural transition by changing

traditional rice monoculture to other models, including intensive shrimp farming,
rotational rice-shrimp farming, intercropping rice-shrimp farming, rice-crab-shrimp
farming. In this research, agricultural transition and rotational rice-shrimp farming and
rice-shrimp farming are used interchangeably based on its popularity and high adaptive
capacity of rice-shrimp model to climate change.
Rotational rice-shrimp farming model is a model that raises rice in the rainy season,
when source of freshwater is abundant, and raise shrimp in the drought season. Shrimp
types are normally black tiger prawn (Penaeus monodon), whiteleg shrimp (Penaeus
vannamei), etc, which normally live in brackist water environment. The rainy season
in Mekong Delta is from April/May to Octorber/November in the same year and the
rest is dry season. Unlike intercropping rice-shrimp farming, which raises shrimp and
grows rice at the same time to increase income for the farmers, rotational rice-shrimp
farming is considered as an effective response to climate change and saline intrusion in
Ca Mau peninsula.

14


Figure 1.4. Framework of the study

15


CHAPTER 2. METHODOLOG
2.1. Research task

Figure 2.5. Research tasks

In this particular research, a review of existing studies and data on climate change, its
impacts and current adaptive actions of agriculture to saline intrusion are conducted to

acquire the overall and thorough knowledge related to the topic. At this stage, the scope
of the research will be decided based on the urgency, impact level and importance of
the issued happened in the area.
Afterwards, field survey will be conducted in a specific region to collect the data
needed and re-confirm the hypothesis. The interviewers will be households and local
authorities. Due to time limited, the samples collected are not enough to do quantitative
analysis. Hence, qualitative analysis will be applied for this research. The research
hypotheses are:
1. Agriculture plays a very important role in overall economic activities as well as
culture in Mekong Delta and especially Ca Mau peninsula. However, recently,
agriculture has been affected by both natural disaster and human activities. Climate
change has caused sea level rising, which bring sea water deeper into the mainland,
while extreme weather phenomena happened more and more regularly, which
caused drought and saline intrusion in dry season and flood in rainy season.
Consequently, agriculture’s productivity has decreased a lot due to saline intrusion,
lack of fresh water, heat stress, and so on.
16