Tài liệu Vietnam Facts ppt

0
VietnamFacts
Frankfurt,30/4/2008
1
Content
1. Vietnameconomicoutlook
2.Majorreforms
2
1 VietnamEconomicOutlook
3
Majorsocioeconomicindices
Rapidgrowthhasbeenmaintained,inflationunder
control.2006hasmarkedahighgrowthrateof8.2%
peryear
Real
2003
Real
2004
Real
2005
Real
2006
Real
2007
GDPGrowthRate
Industry
Agriculture,Forestry,Fishery
Services
7.2%
10.3%
3.2%

6.6%
7.7%
10.2%
3.5%
7.5%
8.4%
10.6 %
4.0%
8.5%
8.17%
10.4%
3.6%
8.29%
8.48 %
10.6 %
3.5%
8.7%
CPI 3.0% 9.5% 8.4% 6.6% 12.6 %
ExportEarningGrowth 20.8% 28.9% 22.4 % 22.0% 22%
Budge tDeficit/GDP 2.0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8%
TotalInvestment/G DP 35.0% 36.6% 38.7 % 40% 41.5%
FDI(US$tỷ) 2.65 2.90 3.30 4.1 16.2
PoorHouseholdPercentage NA 18.1% NA 15.4 7 14.7 5%
UrbanUnemploymentRate 5.8% 5.6% 5.13% 5.32% 5.1%
Phầnt rămthờigianởkh uvựcnôngthôn 77.4% 79.3% 80.7 % NA NA
JobCreation(thou sand people) 1,50 0 1,100 1.200 1.500 1.55 0
ChildrenProportion 28% 26% 26% NA NA
Nguồn:BTC
4
Oneofthefastestg rowingeconomiesinAsia–

SustainableGDPGrowth
EconomicreformshaveturnedVietnamintothethirdfastestgrowingeconomyintheregion,followingChina
andIndiain2007
„ GrowthinManufacturingandConstructionhasbeenthemainengineforGDPgrowthinVietnam
„ BiggestcontributionstoGDPgrowthin2007include:Manufacturing:10.6%,Services:8.7%and
Agriculture:3.5%
„ Arecordg rowthrateof8.4%hasbeenachievedin2007
Source:MinistryofFinance Source:IMF
(Giácả hiệntại)
(%)
Vietnamhasgoodconditionstosuccessfullycompleteitsindustrializationprocess
RealGDPGrowth(20002006E) GDPGro wthintheRegion
6.9%
7.1%
7.3%
7.8%
8.4% 8.2% 8.5%
6.8%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
4.95.14.56.3TháiLan
7.35.44.96.6Philippines
6.35.95.06.8Malaysia
8.58.28.47.8Vietnam
6.35.55.75.0Indonesia
7.78.27.39.0Singapo
9.29.79.17.9India
11.411.110.410.1China
2007200620052004Nước
5
ReasonableG DPGrowthRates

GDPGro wthBySector
RealGDPContribution
Eventhoughtheservicessectorshavebeengrowingsteadily,makingremarkable
contributionstotheoveralleconomicgrowth,thecountry’sGDPgrowthhasstillmainly
attributedtothemanufacturingsector
(%share) (%YoY)
Source:MinistryofFinance
Source:MinistryofFinance
22,7
36,6
39,4
40,2
41,6
38,6
41,0
40,4
40,3
38,1 38,1
38,7
22,4
20,2
19,6
20,36 20,25
41,6
1990 2001 2004 2005 2006 2007
Industry Services Agriculture
100.0 100.0 100.0
9,4
10,3
10,2

10,6
10,37
10,6
6,5
7,0
8,0
8,5
8,3
8,7
4,1
3,2
3,5
4,0
3,4 3,4
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Industry Services Agriculture
100.0 100.0
6
PrudentBudgetControl
Vietnam’sFisca lpolicyhasbeenreformed
throughexpenditurecontrolandrevenue
expansionmeasures
„ Since2000,budgetdeficithasbeen
maintainedbelowthetargetof2.5%GDP
 ExpenditurecannotexceedRevenue
 Commercialloansforbudget
expenditurepurposesareforbidden
„ Taxreformsconcentrateondirectsolutionsin
taxcollections
„ Bytheendo fthefiscalyearof2007,budget

deficitwaskeptat1.8%/GDPCuốinămtài
khoá2007,thâmhụtNSởmức18%/GDP
Note:Fig uresc alculatedunderIMFst andards
Source:MinistryofTrade
Source:MinistryofFinance
(VNDbillion) (%)
FiscalPosition(20002007) TotalRevenueBreakdown(2007)
(17,213)
(12,142)
(10,017)
(13,300)
(12,025)
(10,904)
(12,402)
2.8%
2.5%
1.9%
1.8%
1.1%
1.6%
1.8%
1.8%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
FiscalBalance %GDP
ValueAddedTax
22.1%
IncomeTax
38.7%
Other
12.8%

NonTaxRevenue
4.4%
CapitalRevenue
5.8%
NaturalRes.Tax
7.7%
ImportandExportTax
8.6%
7
ExternalDebtsundercontrol
Vietnam’sexternaldebtspositionhasbeen
improvedconsiderablyinrecentyears
„ Thetargetsofexternaldebtsnotexceeding
20%ofexportearningsandtotaldebtsnot
exceeding50%GDPhavebeenachieved.
„ Currentwithrespecttodebtpaymentsonall
outstandingexternaldebt
Vietnamhasbeenimprovingtheadministrationofexternaldebts,oneofthemeasuresto
improveeffectiveadministrationofthefinancialsectorinthecountry
Source:MinistryofFinance,State BankofViệtNam
(US$triệu)
(%)
Note:D ebtServiceRatioiscalculatedasrationoftotaldebtservicetoexportsof
goodsandnonfactorservicesin%
Source:MinistryofFinance,State BankofViệtNam
ExternalDebtObligationsDebtServiceCoverage
870
792
753
619

638
160
154
146
133
125
2006 2007 2008F 2009F 2010F
Principal Interest
1,030
946
899
752
762
38,9%
30,5%
30,0%
35,3%
31,5%
32,1%
33,7%
39.1%
7,0%
7,1%
7,5%
8,1%
6,7%
7,1%
10,4%
11.1%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

TotalExternalDebt/GDP DSR
8
ImprovingBoPPosition
Vietnam’sBalanceof Paymentshasbeen
improvedthroughmoresustainableforeign
reserves
Nguồn:BTC,StateBankofViệtNam
ForeigncapitalinflowshaveresultedinasurplusinVi etnam’sBalanceofPayments
Nguồn:BTC,NHNN
(US$triệu)
(US$triệu)
CurrentAccount(20002007)
BalanceofPayments(20002007)
(US$triệu)
CapitalAccount(20002007)
270
1.800
1.142
217
(925)
(1,931)
(863)
682
2,50%
0,7%
(4.9%)
3,7%
2,1%
(2.0%)
0,9%

(2.5%)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
CurrentAccount As%ofGDP
220
1,136
1,913
2,604
2,447
4,083
(754)
17.00%
6.2%
12.0%
6.0%
8.3%
5.8%
0.7%
(2.4%)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
CapitalAccount As%ofGDP
40
350
2.150
883
2.131
10.700
2.874
323
15,0%
6,8%

8,6%
1,9%
5,4%
1,0%
0,1%
(1.0%)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
BOP As%ofGDP
9
11.175
12.985
16150
16.049
15.740
15.608
15.368
15.070
14.504
14.018
15.875
11.050
11.023
10.000
11.000
12.000
13.000
14.000
15.000
16.000
17.000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
StableExchangeRates
Vietnammaintainsamanagedfloatinitsforeign
exchangeregime
„ AflexibleexchangerateoftheVietnamDong
hasfacilitatedexports
„ Riskmitigatingcostsoffo reigninvestorshave
beenlowered
Nguồn:NHNN
ExchangeRates(1995–2007)
Theexchangeratestabilityhassuccessfullyfacilitated tradeandinvestment
2/1999:Fixedexchange
rateregimechanged 
intoamanagedfloat
regime
10
StableExchangeRate–ForeignReserves
OfficialForeignReserves
Foreignreservescontinu etogrowsteadily
(mlUS$)
ForeignReservesImprovement
(Monthsofimports)
4
Source:MinistryofFinance Source:MinistryofFinance
2.956
4.866
5.554
7.728
12.000
21.000

2.555
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
399
1.910
688
2.174
4.272
9000
365
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
11
2 MajorReforms
12
SOEReforms
Trade
Liberalization
Nonstate
sectors
Development
Banking
Reforms
Legal
Reforms
Fiscal
Reforms
CapitalMarket
Development
1
2
3

4
7
6
5
13
Lotsofeffectivetradeliberalizationmeasureshaveboostedinternationaltrade
„ Vietnam’s5yearperiodtradep oliciesbeginningin2001reducednontariffbarrierstotrade
„ SincetheconclusionoftheUS–VietnamBTAin2001,Vietnam’se xportturnovertotheUS
increasedfrom USD1.1bnin2001toUSD1 0.7bnin2007
„ Totalexport turnoverreachedUSD4 8.6bnin2007
TradeLiberalization:Nextsteps
TariffandNontariffbarriersnegotiations
BankingSectorDevelopmentandSOE
Reforms
Creationofsufficientsocialsecurity
Transparencyinthelegalsystem
TaxandCustomsReforms
WTOentryforVietnamwillfacilitateanaccelerationofmarketbasedreforms
(US$billion)
1
ExportEarnings(20002007)
Sequenceofmajorreformsintrade
liberalization
Source:MinistryofTrade,GeneralStatisticalOffice
15,0
16,7
20,1
26,5
32,4
48,6

39,8
14,5
22,00%
19,9%
14,7%
18,3%
18,8%
7,1%
5,1%
19,5%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Exports %toUS
14
SOEReforms
SOEReformsfacilitatethedevelopmentofthe
privatesectorandreducethedebtburdenofthe
State
2
RemarkableReductionofSOEs
(numberofSOEs)
EquitizationandDevelopmentofthe
SecuritiesMarket
SOESellout
Developmentofgroupmodel
Removalofstatesubsidies
SOEReformMeas ures
SOEreformcontinuestomakesolidprogress
Source:MinistryofFinance
4.800
4.050

3.067
2.627
1.807
12.300
1990 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
15
DevelopmentofthePrivateSector
Recentso lutionsforthedevelopmentofSMEs
3
PrivateSector’scontributiontothe
economy
TheLandLaw
TheEnterpriseLaw
Simplificationofregis trationprocedures
Tradepromotionandimprovementof
exportearnings
Solutionsforthedevelopmentof
SMEs
Theprivatesectoremergestobegrowthengineoftheeconomy
(%ofGDP)
Source:MinistryofFinance
38.5 38.7
37.2
35.3 35.0
34.2
65.8
40.2
61.3
65.0
64.7

61.5
59.8
62.8
1995 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
State Nonstate
Thetotalnumberofenterprisesby2005was220,000,whichnumberisexpectedtogrow
to500,000by2010
16
BankingReforms 
Khuônkhổpháplýchoviệccảicáchhệthống
NHTMNNđượcCPkýbanhànhvào4/2001đểnâng
caonănglựctàichínhvàhỗtrợtáicơcấucácNH
vàxâydựnglòngtin.
„ Continuetorestructure36JSBsunderthesupervisionoft heStateBank
whenlisted
„ 4jointventurebanksand9foreignbankbranches
RestructuringJoint
StockBanks(JSBs)
„ Restructuring4stateownedcommercialbanks
„ Applyinginternationalaccountingstandardstohaveabetterevaluationof
thesizeofbaddebtsandtoimprovetransparencyinthebankingsystem
„ Improvingcorporategovernanceandliberalizingtheinterestpolicies,
encouragingstateownedcommercialbankstoprovideaccurateevaluation
oflossesduetononperfo rmingloans
RestructuringStat e
ownedcommercial
banks
„ Enhancingsupervisionbyt heStateBank
„ Developinginternalaccountingst andardsinlinewithinternational
standards 

Improvingthelegal
frameworkfor
supervisingthe
sector
„ Graduallyimprovingcorporat egovernancecapacityandcompetitiveness
ofthebanks
„ LimitingtheGiớIhạnhuyđộngt iềngửIbằngnộItệđốIvớINHnướcngoài,
phùhợpvớIcáccamkếtquốctế
Creatingalevel
playingfieldforall
banks
4
Thelegalframeworkforreformingstateownedcommercialbankswasformulatedbythe
GovernmentinApril2001withaviewtoenhancingthefinancialcapacity,supportingthe
restructuringofbanksa ndbuildingtrust.
TheStateBankisturnedintotheCentralBank
17
Developingtheinternalcapitalmarket
„ Currently,over400bondsand229sharesarelistedonHoChiMinhStockExchangeandHanoiSecuritiesTrading
Centre
„ By2007,themarketcapitalizationvalueamountedto30%GDP
5
10
20
22
26
32
120
154
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

5
VNIndex20052007
In2006and2007,thedomesticcapitalmarketgrewrapidly
bothintermsofquantiyandquality
Source:Bloomberg,MinistryofFinance
NumberoflistedsharesonHOSE
Per iod:1/2005–24/4/2008
18
Developmentofabondmarket
TheGovernmentofVietnampromotesthe
mobilizationoffundsfromthelocalsectorto
ensuretheeconomicgrowthofthecountry
Since2000,t helocalbondmarkethaswitnessed
significantprogresses
(US$billion)
Source:MinistryofFinance Source:MinistryofFinance
(VNDtrillion)
DomesticGovernmentDebt InternalDebtObligations
8,7
1,6
2,0
2,3
3,3
4,0
7,2
5,6
12,1%
11,8%
10,6%
8,8%

8,2%
6,5%
6,2%
5,1%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
TotalDeb t TotalDebt(%GDP)
14,0 14,0
11,9
11,4
11,8
10,9 10,9 10,9 10,9
12,5
2006
2007
2008F
2009F
2010F
2011F
2012F
2013F
2014F
2015F
5
19
FinancialReforms
„ Applyingthesametaxsystemfo ralleconomicsectors,acorporateincome
taxrateof 28%isuniformlyimposedonbothlocalandforeigninvested
enterprises
„ Promotingthereformoftaxadministration
„ Institutionalizinga ndmodernizingtaxandcustomsadministration

Standardizedtaxation
system
„ Increasingsavingsfordevelopmentinvestment
„ Reducinggovernmentsubsidies
„ Reformingthesalaryandsubsidysystem
„ Improvingtransparencywiththeinvol vementofGDDSfromIMF
Tightlycontrolli ngthe
statebudget
„ Tightcontrolofthegovernmentexpenditure
„ Emphasisonbetteradministrationofexternaldebts
Flexiblemanagement
ofpublicfinance
„ Makingpublict hefinancialstatusofenterprises
„ Takingnecessarymeasurestosupervisethefinancialsituationof
enterprisesandtoeffectivelyimplementthetaxationsystem
Supervisionoflocal
enterprises
6
EffectiveFinancialReformshavehelpedcreateasoundfinancialenvironmentforbothlocal
andforeignenterprises
20
LegalReforms
7
LegalRef ormshavebeenachallengeforVietnamduringitsWTOaccessionnegotiations.
Majorreformsinclude:
1. Improvingconsistency
„ Toensuretransparency
„ Toreflectthefactualsituationandtheopinionsofthoseaffectedbysuchlegaldocuments
2. Improvingenforcementthrough
„ EnsuringtheinvolvementofallmembersoftheNationalAssemblywhoaredirectl yinchargeof

thematters
„ Providingcomprehensiveandconsistentlawstominimizethenumberofguidingdocuments
3. Makingnecessaryadjustmentandissuancetopushuptheintegrationprocess
„ 2004:13lawsbeingeithernewlyissuedorrevised
„ 2005:39lawsbeingeithernewlyissuedorrevised
„ 2006:21lawsbeingeithernewlyissuedorrevised
„ 2007:17lawsand6ordi nancesbeingnewlyissuedorrevised
4. HumanCapacityBuidling
21
DEMANDSFORDEVELOPMENT
INVESTMENTCAPITAL
150Totalca pitaldemand(bnUSD)
8%8,5%AverageGDPgrowthrate
33%35%Externalfunding
65%67%Localfunding
20062010Indices
22
SustainableDevelopmentCommitment
JoiningtheWTOandfullyparticipatinginAFTAisabenchmarkin2007
2000 20072001 20032002
7/2000:
„Thefirstsecurities
tradingflooropened
inHochiminhCity
1/2000:
„EnterpriseLaw
adopted
12/2001:
„ US–VietnamBTA
passed

„ Revisionofthe
Constitutiontoensure
equalityfortheprivate
sector
4/2001:
„ ThePartyCongressIX
affirmedtheeconomic
renovationdirection
„ Beginningofthe5year
importexportplan
(20012005)
8/2000:
„Introductionofabasic
interestrateregime,
removalofceiling
interestratesinbond
andforeignexchange
markets
3/2001:
„Approvalofthe5year
planofSOEReforms
„Conclusionofagreements
withWB/IMFonthe
povertyreduction
programme
10/2001:
„ Approvalofthe
restructuringprogramme
ofbanks
6/2001:

„ Liberalizationofint erest
ratesforforeigncurrency
denominatedloans
6/2002:
V Increasingdomestic
lendinginter estrate
2004 2005
Ealier2004:
„ PromotingSOER efor ms,
bankingreformsandprvate
sectordevelopment
10/2004:
„ 100%foreignownedbanks
werepermittedi nVietnam
7/2004:
„ TheLandLawtookeffect
9/2005:
„ Relaxingthe
foreigncapfrom
30%to49%
2/2006:
„ Introductionof
theEnterprise
Law,the
Corruption
CombatingLaw
10/2005:
„ Successful
launchofUSD
750mlofdollar

denominated
sovereignbonds
forthe
international
5/2006:
„ Conclusionof
Vietnam–US
Agreementon
Vietnam’sWTO
entry
Late2006:
„ Fullyintegration
intoAFTA
11/2006:
„ TheWTOGeneral
Council
recognized
Vietnam’s
membership
2006
WTO
Entry