Investment Strategy Stock rally to continue as economy improves pptx

February 2013Research Monthly
Investment Strategy
Stock rally to continue as
economy improves page 3
Quality Japanese exporters:
Toyota, Honda, Bridgestone
Beneficiaries of a weaker JPY
and US recovery.
Buy
Google, Intel, Infineon, Len-
ovo, Oracle, Priceline.com,
Qualcomm, Samsung and TS-
MC
Stocks with a strong market posi-
tion in secular growth themes,
such as Mobile Internet, Cloud
Computing, Big Data, Virtualiza-
tion and Social Media.
Buy
Megatrend Champions
Invest in our Champions portfolio,
which reflects the optimal tactical
allocation of megatrend invest-
ments, according to our Traffic
Light system.
Buy
Platinum with a time horizon
of 6–12 months
The market is undersupplied and
undervalued.
Buy

Credit Suisse Megatrends
Introducing our
new
Megatrends
Framework page 11
Investment theme
IT spending to
benefit from
secular
technology
growth
themes page 10
This month’s featured topic
Can
“Abenomics”
revive Japan
and
overcome
deflation? page 9
Important disclosures are found in the Disclosure appendix. Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies
covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could af-
fect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
For a discussion of the risks of investing in the securities mentioned in this report, please refer to the following Internet link:
/>Global Research
Private Banking
Investment horizon: 6-12+ months
Editorial
Giles Keating
Head of Research for Private Banking and
Wealth Management

,
+41 44 332 22 33
It is human nature to be impatient and investors have been
keen for rapid results from the monetary stimulus of recent
years and skeptical when little happened. An exception was
last year’s positive reaction to the ECB’s special bank loans
(LTROs) and bond-buying offer (OMT). But a sense of failure
surrounds the near-zero interest rates imposed by the Fed,
ECB, BoE and BoJ several years ago and subsequent bond-
buying (QE). Such measures are widely seen as financial al-
chemy with little real economic impact. Yet, Nobel Prize-win-
ner Milton Friedman stressed that monetary policy operates
with “long and variable lags.” These can be exceptionally long
when there are deep problems in banking and credit – the key
transmission mechanism to the real economy – but as they re-
turn to health, monetary policy should finally become effective.
That now seems to be happening in the US, with banks re-cap-
italized and lending again, credit card loan securitization re-
starting, and record issuance of high yield bonds.
All this is a bit like flooring the gas pedal on a car with mal-
functioning fuel injection. Nothing happens and you think that
your foot pressure is useless, but when a mechanic fixes the
problem, the car suddenly goes forward even though you do
not push the pedal anymore. By analogy, the US economy can
accelerate without the Fed adding extra stimulus. Europe is
similar, but perhaps 6–12 months behind the US, as the com-
plex credit problems take longer to fix. In short, as investors
we should not be ruled by our own impatience: Monetary
policy is at last becoming effective, and the throttle is open far
wider than ever before. As broken banking and credit systems

heal, positive monetary impetus can overwhelm the negative ef-
fects of tighter fiscal policy, boosting the economy more than
people expect, and raising stock markets during a “sweet
spot” that could last a couple of years before inflation be-
comes a threat.
In this issue
Investment Strategy
Stock rally to continue as economy improves  page 3
Investment summary  page 5
Economics
Gradual global pick-up to continue  page 7
This month’s featured topic
Can “Abenomics” revive Japan and overcome
deflation?  page 9
Investment theme
IT spending to benefit from secular technology growth
themes  page 10
Credit Suisse Megatrends
Introducing our new Megatrends Framework  page 11
Fixed income
Credits start the year on a positive note  page 12
Equities
Strong start to the year bodes well for equities  page 14
Alternative investments
Directional hedge fund styles and US REITS offer
opportunities  page 16
Foreign exchange
Diversification into emerging market currencies  page 17
Risk disclaimer  page 19
Editorial deadline: 29 January 2013

2 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
Investment Strategy
Stock rally to
continue as
economy improves
 Gradual global economic pick-up to con-
tinue with no imminent inflation and ex-
pansive central banks.
 Stocks, US real estate remain in focus
as investments on a 6–12+ month hori-
zon. In bonds, favor short maturity credits.
 CHF correcting weaker; EUR gaining
and emerging market currencies set to
rise.
Nannette Hechler-Fayd'herbe
Head of Global Financial Markets Research
nannette.hechler-fayd', +41 44 333 17 06
The first weeks of trading in 2013 saw a strong rebound in in-
vestor risk appetite. Economic headwinds have ebbed, as the
credit crunch ends and the fiscal outlook becomes clearer in
the USA, euro break-up dangers fade and China growth con-
solidates. Equity funds hence registered significant inflows,
new bond issues of riskier creditors continued to be oversub-
scribed and European peripheral sovereign and corporate
bonds traded at significantly tighter spreads to German Bunds.
Core government bond yields, in contrast, rose and all safe-
haven assets – the CHF, the JPY, gold – have underper-
formed or lost ground. It seems as if investors are finally show-
ing willingness to commit their excess cash holdings to finan-
cial investments. Meanwhile, last year’s fall in credit spreads

has left bonds less attractive, while equity multiples are still not
stretched.
Top investment ideas for 2013 – January update
Our set of Top investment ideas for 2013 published in our pre-
vious edition have recorded absolute returns of 1%–12%
since we recommended them in late 2012, with only our for-
eign exchange idea in flattish territory. Despite the strength
and rapidity of these market moves, we keep the status of all
of our ideas unchanged on Green (which means “Continue to
accumulate”). The emphasis on stocks (Idea No. 2, “Recovery
stocks,” Idea No. 3, “Dividend stocks” and Idea No. 4, “New
gas and oil sources”), real estate (Idea No. 5, “US real estate”)
with less fixed income (Idea No. 1, “Beyond cash: Credit, not
duration”) in combinations reflective of respective investor risk
profiles should continue to perform well, in our view.
Fixed income: First trading weeks confirming our “cred-
it, not duration” call
Yields on core government bonds increased at the start of the
year in the wake of a general “risk-on” investor mode, while
credit spreads continued to compress. We do not expect the
same pace in core yields and credit spreads to continue. After
all, while improving, global growth is still likely to be moderate
in 2013, inflation to remain low and central banks generally
stick to their accommodative stance. So, core yields should
have some upside risks, albeit limited, except for Switzerland,
where a further depreciation of the CHF would induce a fur-
ther normalization of Eidgenossen yields. These are still signi-
ficantly below fair value. Credit spreads, too, are unlikely to
compress at the same pace. As a result, carry (or coupon con-
tribution) will be key in fixed income returns, which we anticip-

ate to be in the low single-digit area. Therefore, we maintain
our strategic focus on short maturity credits down to BB credit
quality. We also highlight European convertibles as a fixed in-
come alternative likely to perform well.
Equities: Japan upgraded to neutral in our regional
strategy
Equities have continued with strong advances at the start of
the year and have benefited from falling credit spreads and bet-
ter investor sentiment. Temporary short-term setbacks of small
magnitude are possible any time, but in the broader picture,
equities are among the more attractively valued asset classes
and one of the few opportunities left offering investors a re-
turn. In our regional focus, we have changed our views with re-
gard to Japanese stocks, which are unlikely to underperform
global markets if the JPY stays around current levels. Our cur-
rency outlook suggests positive consequences on earnings in
Japan. Our sector strategy and our preferred equity themes re-
main unchanged and are reflected in our Top ideas for 2013,
Nos. 2–4. In this issue, we provide more details on the techno-
logy sector, on which we have a positive view.
Alternative investments: US REITS still our favorite
This month, we confirm US real estate as our favorite alternat-
ive investment. We would also expect hedge funds to benefit
from persistently low volatility on stock markets and good liquid-
ity conditions. Directional strategies are likely to fare best in
this investment category. In commodities, our moderate global
growth picture still justifies a neutral outlook.
3 Investment Strategy 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
Foreign exchange: Weaker CHF vs. EUR, selected emer-
ging market currencies stronger

The CHF has depreciated markedly vs. EUR and we expect
more. Falling risk premia on the EUR should lead to gradual
capital outflows from Switzerland. The EUR and selected Asi-
an and interest-bearing emerging market currencies are likely
to benefit the most, the USD less. In our optimal currency port-
folios, we add CNH, MXN, PLN and TRY as providing good di-
versification. The JPY has entered a technical downtrend and
even though there are reasonable doubts about how effective
the BoJ can be, we see USD/JPY at 94 in 12 months. Tactic-
ally, we prefer to await a correction to go short JPY.
Risk review
Risks in relation with the Eurozone debt crisis have declined
materially, in our view. If peripheral countries disappoint on
their deliverables, credit spreads could still widen again from
current levels. But the Outright Monetary Transactions frame-
work of the European Central Bank provide a credible back-
stop to a more devastating movement. In the US, while the
debt ceiling could provide some temporary drama, we still anti-
cipate muddling-through from both the Republicans and Demo-
crats. In our view, geopolitical risks in both the Near and Far
East therefore remain the least easily predictable. For in-
vestors who are overly concerned about the potential impact of
any event on global stock markets, we again highlight the relat-
ively cheap short-term protection opportunity offered by derivat-
ives, given persistently low volatility. (25/01/2013)
Strategic asset allocation (SAA)
The neutral allocations serve as a guideline and represent the
average weighting over an entire market cycle. Since the glob-
al strategy is based on a medium-term investment horizon, it
deviates from the neutral position. We recommend an over-

weight in equities and alternative assets, particularly hedge
funds and real estate (selected markets). Conversely, we re-
commend underweighting fixed income investments and liquid-
ity.
BM SAA
Cash 5% 2%
Fixed Income 80% 80%
Equity 0% 0%
Alternative 15% 18%
BM SAA
Cash 5% 2%
Fixed Income 55% 53%
Equity 20% 22%
Alternative 20% 23%
BM SAA
Cash 5% 2%
Fixed Income 35% 32%
Equity 40% 43%
Alternative 20% 23%
BM SAA
Cash 5% 2%
Fixed Income 15% 12%
Equity 60% 63%
Alternative 20% 23%
BM SAA
Cash 5% 2%
Fixed Income 0% 0%
Equity 80% 81%
Alternative 15% 17%
Equities

Fixed Income
Income
Balanced
Capital Gain
Benchmark
(BM)
SAA
Benchmark
(BM)
SAA
Benchmark
(BM)
SAA
Benchmark
(BM)
SAA
Benchmark
(BM)
SAA
Source: Credit Suisse
4 Investment Strategy 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
Investment summary
Short interest rates 3M LIBOR / 10-year government bonds
10Y
bonds
3M
LIBOR
12M3MSpot12M3MSpotin %
0.9-1.10.6-0.80.700.0-0.20.0-0.20.02CHF
1.6-1.81.5-1.71.570.1-0.30.1-0.30.21EUR *

1.8-2.01.6-1.81.850.3-0.50.3-0.50.30USD
2.1-2.31.8-2.02.010.5-0.70.5-0.70.51GBP
0.9-1.10.8-1.00.730.1-0.30.1-0.30.17JPY
Spot rates are closing prices as of 24/01/2013. Forecast date: 24/01/2013. * 3M Euribor
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse
Bonds: Selected indices
12M TR out-
look
Total return
YTD (%)
Spread to
bench-
mark (bp)
YTM
(%)
Index

-0.61102.7USD (CS LUCI)

-0.91332.1EUR (CS LEI)

-0.8460.8CHF (CS LSI)

-0.61583.6GBP(CS LEI)

-0.12564.6EM HC (JPM EMBI
Global)

-0.4n.a.5.5EM LC hedged in
USD (JPM GBI)


1.85095.8High Yield (CS HY In-
dex)
Prices as of 28/01/2013
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse
Commodities
12M3MSpot
1,8001,7501,658.70Gold (USD)
323431.20Silver (USD)
1,8501,7501,694.75Platinum (USD)
1009695.88Oil (USD)
Spot prices: London close 25/01/2013
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse
Equities: Selected indices
12M out-
look
12M fair
value
YTD
(%)
MTD
(%)
PriceIndex
Overweight
1,513
5.4%5.4%
1,502.96
S&P 500
Underweight
6,477

9.3%9.3%
7,458.66
SMI
Neutral
5,954
6.6%6.6%
6,284.45
FTSE-100
Neutral
2,570
4.1%4.1%
2,744.18
Euro Stoxx 50
Neutral
10,600
5.1%5.1%
10,926.65
Nikkei 225
Neutral
1,039
1.3%1.3%
1,069.12
MSCI EM
Overweight
12,000
4.9%4.9%
12,001.81
China H-Shares
Prices as of 25/01/2013; 12M fair value: scenario analysis available; 12M outlook: relative to MSCI World
Index (USD)

Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse
Foreign exchange
12M3MSpot
1.35-1.391.36-1.401.34EUR/USD
0.93-0.970.89-0.930.93USD/CHF
1.28-1.321.24-1.281.24EUR/CHF
92-9690-9490USD/JPY
127-131125-129120EUR/JPY
0.84-0.880.84-0.880.85EUR/GBP
1.58-1.621.58-1.621.58GBP/USD
8.78-8.828.73-8.778.68EUR/SEK
0.96-1.000.98-1.021.05AUD/USD
5.90-6.106.05-6.256.22USD/CNY
Spot rates: London close 24/01/2013
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse
Real GDP growth and inflation
InflationGDP
growth
2014E2013E2012E2014E2013E2012Ein %
1.00.4-0.72.01.50.9CH
1.71.82.51.10.0-0.4EMU
2.11.62.12.52.02.1USA
2.32.32.81.51.00.0UK
1.8-0.40.01.21.41.7Japan
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse
Global Research asset category strategy
Strategic
6–12+ M
Tactical
1–6 M

Comments and comparison of weightingsBy region/strategy

We keep our focus on shorter maturities. We recommend focus-
ing on corporates.
Overweight: USA; Underweight: CH & Canada.
Fixed income

Equity markets at important technical levels: Limited consolida-
tion is equally as likely before further rises.
Overweight: USA; Underweight: Switzerland.
Equities

Tactically positive on short-term price rebound potential. Strategic-
ally neutral but technicals improving for cyclicals.
Overweight: Energy, precious metals; Underweight: Ag-
riculturals.
Commodities

Equities: Some upside strategically, but valuations richer. Direct
real estate: Attractive rental carry.
Overweight: USA, Asia-Pacific and Germany; Under-
weight: UK.
Real estate

Selected private equity themes are particularly suitable to take ad-
vantage of the current economic environment.
Focus on secondaries, natural resources, SME LBOs,
emerging markets, and private debt funds.
Private equity


We overweight directional strategies such as EM and long-short.
We maintain our positive stance for global macro.
We maintain our positive stance on global macro and dir-
ectional strategies.
Hedge funds
We expect EUR/USD to rise to 1.37. CAD fundamentals are pos-
itive now.
EUR/USD  , USD/CHF , GBP/USD ,
USD/JPY .
Foreign ex-
change
Source: Credit Suisse Investment Committee/Global Research
5 Investment Strategy 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
Top Investment Ideas for 2013
Rationale/UpdateActionStatusFixed Income
Cash should continue to be unremunerative (near-zero yields) in most markets.
Whereas credit spreads have come down further in recent weeks, bringing yields of
many bonds into very low territory, corporate bonds of short maturities still offer a de-
cent yield pick-up versus cash. With default rates expected to marginally increase in
2013, conservative investors should focus on investment grade credits.
Buy short dated AA- to BBB financials and A
to BB non-financials excluding auto.

1. Beyond cash: Credit
not duration
Equities
We expect equity market sentiment to improve further in 2013, especially after US
politicians find a solution to the debt ceiling issue. We recommend US consumer
stocks and recovery stocks benefiting from the US and Asia recovery. We expect ro-
bust M&A activity as stocks are cheap and cash levels high.

Buy US consumer, M&A and cyclical stocks.

2. Recovery stocks
For investors who are interested in absolute return and with an expectation of relat-
ively high cash flow disbursements from dividends.
Buy high dividend yielding stocks, high free
cash flow generating stocks or European high
yield convertible bonds.

3. Dividends and beyond
Oil and gas companies with new exploration technologies or which have interest in as
yet unexploited shale gas, tight oil, deepwater oil, etc.
Invest in upstream energy stocks.

4. New gas and oil
sources
Alternative Invest-
ments
Very affordable prices, easy monetary policy and solid economic growth to support
US housing. German real estate also appears relatively cheap and can benefit from
capital inflows.
Invest in commercial and residential real es-
tate.

5. US real estate
Foreign Exchange
We continue to recommend diversification into selected EM currencies out of tradition-
al hard currencies like EUR and USD.
Buy selected Asian currencies and other selec-
ted EM currencies.


6. The new hard curren-
cies
Key to status symbols: green = attractive investment opportunities – continue to invest in theme; yellow = keep holdings but do not add to existing positions; red = reduce /exit existing positions.
Source: Credit Suisse
6 Investment Strategy 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
Economics
Gradual global
pick-up to continue
 Easing Eurozone stress and better finan-
cial conditions should support the global
economy.
 Growth momentum continues in the US,
despite fiscal headwinds, and emerging
Asia; Europe lags.
Thomas Herrmann
, +41 44 333 50 62
Signs of financial stress in the Eurozone continued to abate
over the past few weeks. Government bond yields fell further
and the deposit and capital flight that had intensified last year
continued to reverse over the past months in Italy and Spain.
Actual data releases point to a weak last quarter of 2012, with
weakness likely persist into the start of the year. However, as
time progresses, significantly lower risks of extreme outcomes
and improved financial conditions should be reflected in better
confidence and “hard” economic data. We expect a return to
modest growth in the second half of 2013, with continuing
large differences between countries. Growth is likely to remain
weak in those countries, where planned deficit cuts are
largest, unemployment highest and structural banking sector is-

sues still present (e.g. Spain).
US: Solid underlying improvement despite fiscal head-
winds
Several positive forces, including the housing and labor market
recovery, should continue to support US growth. The corpor-
ate sector looks very healthy, with low leverage and a substan-
tial amount of cash on the balance sheet. Less fiscal uncer-
tainty should result in stronger investment spending growth
this year. Importantly, the full impact of the fiscal cliff – a com-
bination of expiring tax relief and automatic spending cuts –
has been averted. In addition, the statutory debt limit has been
temporarily suspended (effectively until the summer) and
pending decisions on spending cuts look unlikely to result in a
meaningful growth impact this year. While household incomes
and spending are likely to be affected by higher taxes in the
first half of this year, the positive developments described
above should lead to stronger growth thereafter. As inflation is
set to remain low, the Fed still looks likely to continue its bond
purchases at the current pace throughout 2013.
Emerging markets: Better growth momentum, some in-
flation pick-up
Supported by demand from other emerging markets, exports
from China and smaller Asian economies (e.g. Malaysia) have
rebounded. This should also be reflected in stronger industrial
production. Some acceleration in China, supported by the
structural trend toward stronger domestic demand, should be
good for Japan (for more details on Japan, please see this
month’s featured topic). Several emerging markets face great-
er-than-expected inflation pressure (e.g. Brazil) and are thus
less likely to ease policy further. They are also likely to tolerate

tighter policy in the form of stronger currencies. Eastern
Europe, (especially the economies most exposed to Eurozone
weakness, such as the Czech Republic and Hungary), remains
an exception in all this with growth still weak, inflation low and
an easing bias persisting. (24/01/2013)
7 Economics 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
Selected ideas from previous months
December 2012 (27/11/2012)
Action to be takenRecommendation
NeutralEQBUY Top 30 portfolio stock: Chevron. A leading energy-related recovery investment.
Add exposureREBUY US Real Estate Investment Trusts. US real estate has upside potential, as the rental market has bottomed out. REITS still offer value.
November 2012 (30/10/2012)
Action to be takenRecommendation
Add exposureEQBUY Undervalued cyclical stocks in China. We recommend domestically-driven cyclical stocks to benefit from China’s growth stabilization.
Add exposureEQBUY Exposure to non-investment grade convertible bonds from European issuers.
Add exposureEQBUY Asset managers with a strong EM presence: Partners Group. The alternative investment manager is currently expanding its client rela-
tionships throughout Asia.
Add exposureEQBUY CS Top 30 stock: Schlumberger. Occupies a leading position in the diversified energy services market.
October 2012 (25/09/2012)
Action to be takenRecommendation
Add exposureFXBUY Selected EM currencies. For emerging market currencies, the Fed’s action tends to be positive, but we are selective as some coun-
tries will counter with their own monetary expansion.
Add exposureREBUY Retailer linked to housing recovery: Home Depot. Home Depot is the world’s largest home improvement specialty retailer, which
should benefit from a pick-up in US homebuilding.
Add exposureEQBUY Microsoft – CS Top 30 company. Trades at a valuation discount and is poised to benefit from the upcoming Windows 8 release.
FI Fixed income, EQ Equities, AI Alternative investments, FX Foreign exchange, RE Real estate
For further information, including disclosures with respect to any other issuers, please refer to the Credit Suisse Global Research Disclosure site at: />Source: Credit Suisse
8 Economics 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
This month’s featured topic
Can “Abenomics”

revive Japan and
overcome
deflation?
 Added fiscal and monetary stimulus
should boost growth in the short term, but
long-term revival faces structural head-
winds.
 The reflationary monetary policy bias
could reinforce negative JPY sentiment.
 Japanese equities have moderate up-
side potential on monetary easing, a weak-
er JPY and favorable fund flows.
Marcel Thieliant
, +65 6212 6071
Soichiro Matsumoto
, +81 3 4550 5462
Koon How Heng
, +65 6212 6003
Quality Japanese exporters: Toyota, Honda,
Bridgestone
Beneficiaries of a weaker JPY and US recovery.
Buy
The new LDP government under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in-
tends to boost the Japanese economy by implementing ag-
gressive fiscal stimulus and overcoming long-entrenched defla-
tion. This policy shift appears, more generally, to reflect the
wish to reverse the perceived secular decline of Japan’s eco-
nomic power and regional influence in the face of China’s as-
cendancy. The recent escalation of the dispute over the
Diaoyu/Senkaku islands is a manifestation of the intensifying

rivalry in the Asia-Pacific region.
Cyclical economic boost likely, but long-term success in
doubt
The announced increase in government expenditure of more
than 2% of GDP, combined with monetary easing measures,
has prompted us to raise the growth forecast for Japan by
0.6% in 2013. Financial markets were initially disappointed by
the limited size of the BoJ’s announced (additional) “open
ended asset purchases,” as well as the lack of a time frame or
other milestones to achieve the upwardly revised inflation tar-
get. However, we believe that plans for added asset pur-
chases may be announced once a new BoJ governor takes
over in April. Whether Japan can decisively emerge from defla-
tion remains to be seen. Given Japan’s demographic head-
winds, its rising debt burden and political resistance to structur-
al reform, a more lasting boost to economic growth also re-
mains in doubt.
New Japanese reflation theme suggests JPY weakness
could persist
While we harbor some doubts as to whether the BoJ can deliv-
er the policy outcomes demanded, the new reflationary theme
does shift the risk-reward on USD/JPY to the upside. The re-
cent JPY depreciation trend could therefore persist – even if
our models no longer indicate JPY overvaluation. Minimally,
we would expect any significant JPY strength to be met with a
more forceful central bank response. That said, direct foreign
currency intervention, including significant foreign bond pur-
chases are fairly unlikely given their foreign policy sensitivity.
We revise our forecasts for 3M and 12M higher to 92 and 94,
from 89 and 90, previously. However, given still substantial

speculative net JPY short positions as well as upcoming event
risks – including the February G20 meeting and the appoint-
ment process for the new BoJ governor – we may well see
transitional JPY gains.
Quality Japanese exporters with good upside potential
More expansionary policy, a weaker JPY and favorable fund
flows should further reduce the risk premium on Japanese
equities. At break-even levels of USD/JPY 89–90, or weaker,
earnings for exporters should improve. Our overall stance on
Japanese equities remains neutral. Within the market, we re-
commend quality Japanese exporters, including Toyota,
Honda and Bridgestone, which are likely to benefit from JPY
weakness and a recovery in the US and China. We also favor
beneficiaries of reflation policies, especially major banks like
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial
Group, Mizuho Financial Group, as well as highly leveraged
firms like Softbank. (25/01/2013)
9 This month’s featured topic 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
Investment theme
IT spending to
benefit from
secular technology
growth themes
 We expect IT spending growth to recov-
er in 2013 to at least in line with global
GDP growth.
 The IT sector trades in line with the
broad market; we think it deserves a
premium given its good growth prospects.
Uwe Neumann

, +41 44 334 56 45
Ulrich Kaiser
, +41 44 334 56 49
Google, Intel, Infineon, Lenovo, Oracle,
Priceline.com, Qualcomm, Samsung and TSMC
Stocks with a strong market position in secular growth
themes, such as Mobile Internet, Cloud Computing,
Big Data, Virtualization and Social Media.
Buy
Cyclical technology stocks to prevail in the mid term
We expect global IT spending to recover (our estimate: 3.4%),
with spending related to technology themes, such as Mobile In-
ternet, Cloud Computing, Big Data, Virtualization and Social
Media, likely to be disproportionately high. Companies benefit-
ing from these secular growth themes should continue to out-
perform in the longer term (see our Research Alert, “‘Ten
Tech Titans’ monetizing IT megatrends,” dated 14 August
2012). However, in the current “risk-on” market environment,
cyclical technology stocks, such as semiconductors and select-
ive mid-quality technology stocks, may outperform the IT sec-
tor in the mid term, benefiting from an economic tailwind
through margin leverage (see our Research Alert, “Information
Technology Outlook 2013: A three-tier society,” dated 22
January 2013) and/or IT spending that was postponed during
the recession.
In IT Hardware, we expect the mobile device market to con-
tinue to grow strongly whilst the PC market declines, with
growth rates in the smartphone market likely to drop to the low
teens. Combined with rising competitive pressure (a large num-
ber of “iPhone-like” smartphones were launched in Q4 2012),

margins in this segment could decline as well. Software and In-
ternet should perform well throughout 2013, due to their nu-
merous structural secular growth trends.
Historically low valuation supports our constructive view
Historically low spending levels in 2012 and 2013E explain to
some extent the compression of the 12-month forward P/E
valuation premium. The sector appears to be valued quite at-
tractively against its historic base and the broader market.
Since IT remains one of the most fundamentally attractive sec-
tors, with strong balance sheets and high net-cash positions,
we are still of the opinion that the sector deserves a premium.
(24/01/2013)
Valuation does not reflect solid fundamentals
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr 04 Apr 06 Apr 08 Apr 10 Apr 12
IT MSCI World
12-month forward P/E
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
10 Investment theme 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
Credit Suisse Megatrends
Introducing our
new Megatrends
Framework
 Megatrends can last for decades, but as-
set prices related to them can have boom,

bust and growth phases lasting only a few
months or years.
 Based on our new Traffic Light system,
we introduce our Megatrend Champions.
Markus Stierli
, +41 44 334 88 57
Antonios Koutsoukis
, +44 20 7883 6647
Megatrend Champions
Invest in our Champions portfolio, which reflects the
optimal tactical allocation of megatrend investments,
according to our Traffic Light system.
Buy
The lifecycle of megatrend investments
Megatrends are major economic, social and political forces,
which are relevant across decades. We believe that the analys-
is of megatrends enables us to identify attractive investment
opportunities in growing markets. It should be also understood
that markets move on a very different timescale than these un-
derlying trends. Investors can become enthusiastic about se-
curities related to a megatrend theme, driving valuations to
high levels, and then become disenchanted, causing a major
sell-off even as the underlying theme remains in place. The
dot.com bubble provides an illustration of this behavior (see
chart).
Guiding investors
Understanding these investment cycles allows for a strategic
and sustainable approach to investment in megatrends. With
this in mind, we recently introduced our new tactical Traffic
Light system, which helps long-term investors navigate

through these market fluctuations by signaling optimal entry
points or times to reduce exposure. The Traffic Light system
considers a variety of metrics, including relative valuation, earn-
ings revisions, long-term growth prospects, price momentum
and risk profile.
Dot.com bubble
Nasdaq Computer index since 1993
0
500
1'000
1'500
2'000
2'500
3'000
Oct 93 Oct 95 Oct 97 Oct 99 Oct 01 Oct 03 Oct 05 Oct 07 Oct 09 Oct 11
NASDAQ Computer Index
Start-up
phase
Capital
overcrowding
Bubble burst
Maturity
Index level
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse / IDC
Megatrend Champions
We recently launched our Megatrend Champions portfolio,
which includes our top picks from all stocks exposed to the
megatrends. We selected stocks using a rigorous screening
process that includes the following factors: Stock recommend-
ation, environmental, social and governance-related perform-

ance, as well as valuation and profitability as measured by
HOLT. The portfolio has a beta slightly above that of the mar-
ket, and strong exposure to emerging markets and growth
stocks. For the current status of the Traffic Light system and
an overview of the portfolio, please see our publication, “Intro-
ducing our Megatrend Champions basket,” published 22 Janu-
ary 2013. (25/01/2013)
11 Credit Suisse Megatrends 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
Fixed income
Credits start the
year on a positive
note
 Significant credit spread tightening and
higher core government bond yields at the
start of the year.
 We keep our positive view on lower-
rated credits, but would wait for more clar-
ity on the US debt ceiling and Italian elec-
tions before adding exposure.
Maurice Jiszda
, +41 44 333 21 41
“Credit, not duration” best describes recent markets
Since the US government managed to negotiate a budget
deal, fixed income markets have essentially headed in one dir-
ection. While major ten-year government bond yields in-
creased significantly, credit markets remained on a strong foot-
ing amid positive economic data releases. Credit outperformed
other fixed income asset classes, with lower-rated issuers lead-
ing the way. Consequently, our Top 2013 Investment Idea
No.1, “Beyond cash: Credit, not duration,” delivered strong re-

turns compared to cash or money markets.
Still positive on credits, but more cautious in February
As we expect both stimulus from the major central banks and
global growth recovery to continue, our default rate outlook re-
mains benign. Hence, we maintain our constructive strategic
view on risky credits and have a neutral outlook for govern-
ment bonds, since we do not expect yields to increase sharply
from here. For more risk tolerant investors, we recommend fo-
cusing on BBB and BB credits up to around four years matur-
ity as well as selected Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bonds.
In emerging markets, we favor local currency exposure to Mex-
ico, Russia and Turkey, given expected yield stability and cur-
rency appreciation potential. Further out the risk curve, convert-
ible bonds still offer good opportunities, especially in Europe,
given our positive view on high yield and equities. Less risk-tol-
erant investors may want to either hold or enter positions of
our Top 2013 investment idea “Beyond cash,” a broadly diver-
sified basket of AA- to BBB rated financials and A to BB rated
corporates. The continuing yield advantage of credits is likely
be the dominating source of outperformance against cash.
Despite our strategically positive view on credits, especially on
high yield bonds, we recommend a more cautious stance
ahead of the US debt ceiling debate and Italian elections.
Surge in LBO activity: A real threat, but not yet
A material increase in leveraged buyout (LBO) activity (current
case: Dell) usually coincides with the maturing of the credit
cycle. Low yields and a positive stock market outlook are LBO
supportive drivers. In an LBO environment, single name risk in-
creases significantly, since credit spreads of targeted compan-
ies usually rise sharply, given the highly leveraged structure of

such transactions. However, since the credit cycle and the as-
sociated corporate leverage are just entering expansionary ter-
ritory and banks are still reluctant to lend to private equity, we
do not expect an LBO wave to be unleashed anytime soon. All
the same, we take the case of Dell as a clear warning sign of
more to come later in the year or in 2014.
(24/01/2013)
12 Fixed income 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
Selected bond recommendations
Dura-
tion
Bench-
mark
spread
YTM/
YTC
(%)
Ask
price
(1)
Vol.
(m)
Min. de-
nomina-
tion/incre-
ment (in
1000)
MaturityCoup.RatingIssuerCurr.ISIN
CHF
2.41441.37102.702005 / 507/16/20152.500BBB / Baa3RCI BANQUE SACHFCH0181738904

4.32622.78102.601855 / 510/25/20173.375NR / Baa2eUNICRED BANK IRELAND PLCCHFCH0197482711
USD
4.5771.54100.407502 / 110/10/20171.625A / A1GDF SUEZ (3)USDUSF42768GN96
4.6130.91102.1510001 / 111/06/20171.375A / A2BP CAPITAL MARKETS PLC (3)USDUS05565QCC06
4.6771.56100.1710001 / 111/20/20171.600AA+ / A1GENERAL ELEC CAP CORP (3)USDUS36962G6K56
4.71252.0899.6420002 / 101/11/20182.000A- / Baa2BANK OF AMERICA CORP (3)USDUS06051GET22
4.71662.4999.471250200 / 101/16/20182.375BB+ /
Baa3e
FORD MOTOR CREDIT CO LLC
(3)
USDUS34540UAA79
4.53214.0499.271500200 / 101/16/20183.875BBB+ /
Baa2
INTESA SANPAOLO SPA (2, 3)USDUS46115HAJ68
4.8981.8199.9412502 / 101/25/20181.800A / A2JPMORGAN CHASE & CO (3)USDUS46625HJG65
EUR
1.81341.52101.087501 / 111/24/20142.125BBB / Baa3RCI BANQUE SAEURXS0856173546
2.82272.52105.1750050 / 103/23/20164.250BB+ / Ba1LAFARGE SAEURXS0235605853
4.31552.15103.20500100 / 110/03/20172.875#N/A N/A /
Baa3
FCE BANK PLCEURXS0838847381
4.32763.38102.691711100 / 111/09/20174.000BBB+ /
Baa2
INTESA SANPAOLO SPA (2)EURXS0852993285
4.61452.1198.901000100 / 112/19/20171.875BBB / NRCARREFOUR SAEURXS0866278921
4.52633.28100.42750100 / 101/11/20183.375BBB+ /
Baa2
UNICREDIT SPA (2)EURXS0863482336
4.91091.8098.5210001 / 103/12/20181.500A+ / A2BNP PARIBASEURXS0872705057
5.81332.26102.13500100 / 107/03/20192.625#N/A N/A /

Baa2
CARLSBERG BREWERIES A/SEURXS0800572454
Others
2.8891.35100.082501 / 112/10/20151.375A- / A3DAIMLER AGGBPXS0862681755
6.2852.2599.21500100 / 111/13/20192.125AA- / Aa3NORDEA BANK ABGBPXS0853680527
6.2982.3999.913001 / 111/20/20192.375A+ / A2BNP PARIBASGBPXS0856595961
4.21574.36101.2445010 / 1011/07/20174.650A / A2JPMORGAN CHASE & CO (3)AUDAU3CB0201366
4.31404.2199.1175010 / 1011/15/20174.000A / A2TELSTRA CORP LTD (3)AUDAU3CB0201838
4.41664.50100.0050010 / 1001/30/20184.500#N/A N/A /
A1e
GE CAP AUSTRALIA FUNDING (3)AUDAU3CB0204691
4.7672.12100.021001 / 101/22/20182.125AAA / AaaeNEDER WATERSCHAPSBANKCADXS0875625062
2.71052.7099.11150010 / 1012/04/20152.375NR / A2BMW US CAPITAL LLCNOKDE000A1HDA43
4.61153.0699.1750010 / 1001/29/20182.875AA- / #N/A
N/A
RABOBANK NEDERLANDNOKXS0878575900
EM/Below IG
2.42212.17102.915005 / 508/05/20153.375BBB- / Baa3GAZPROMBK (GPB FINANCE)CHFCH0188931916
2.42322.29102.044505 / 508/17/20153.125NR / Baa1OJSC RUSS AGRIC BK(RSHB)CHFCH0190653870
2.51831.78103.354105 / 509/14/20153.100NR / A3SBERBANK (SB CAP SA)CHFCH0148606160
2.82382.40103.925005 / 502/17/20163.750BBB / NRVNESHECONOMBANK(VEB)CHFCH0123431709
2.34123.86105.21370150 / 112/31/20175.625BB- / Ba3SUNRISE COMMUNICATIONS I (3)CHFXS0804472057
2.52792.95102.3575050 / 110/05/20153.875BB+ / NRMOL HUNGARIAN OIL & GASEURXS0231264275
3.71742.20106.041400100 / 103/15/20173.755BBB / Baa1GAZPROM (GAZ CAPITAL SA)EURXS0805582011
4.73003.77129.9450050 / 5012/15/20189.500NR / Ba2HEIDELBERGCEMENT FIN LUX
(3)
EURXS0686703736
6.71752.8899.975001 / 107/15/20202.875#N/A N/A /
Ba1
FRESENIUS FINANCE BV (3)EURXS0873432511

5.94585.62104.65600100 / 109/15/20226.375B- / B2UPC HOLDING BV (3)EURXS0832993397
7.73625.1499.86500100 / 101/21/20235.125BB- /
(P)Ba3
UNITYMEDIA HESSEN / NRW (3)EURXS0877974062
3.92863.46103.95450200 / 105/16/20174.461BBB- / Baa3YANCOAL INTL RES DEV (3)USDUSY97279AA45
7.53135.01103.801000200 / 112/06/20225.500NR / Ba1YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI (3, 7)USDXS0861979440
3.02007.75100.37200005000 /
100
07/25/20167.875BBB- / Baa3GAZPROMBANK OJSC (3)RUBXS0877983642
4.114.77112.98758260.1 / 0.112/14/20177.750A- / Baa1MEX BONOS DESARR FIX RT (3)MXNMX0MGO0000F3
1) Indicated prices as of 25. January 2013; 2) Subject to withholding tax; 3) Semi-annual coupon; 4) Quarterly coupon; 5) Corporate subordinated hybrid debt, yield to call, duration to call; 6) Junior subordinated debt, yield to
call, duration to call; 7) Subordinated debt, LT2; 8) e = expected rating, subject to final documentation / n.a. = not applicable / NR = not rated; 9) 3M-LIBOR in respective currency; 10) Callable
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse
13 Fixed income 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
Equities
Strong start to the
year bodes well for
equities
 Equity rally driven by strong risk appet-
ite, low volatility.
 Shorter-term indicators becoming
stretched, any correction is a buying oppor-
tunity.
Michael O'Sullivan
Head of Portfolio Strategy & Thematic Research
michael.o', +44 20 7883 8228
Schlumberger
A CS Top 30, Megatrend and key energy call.
Buy
The strong equity market rally of the first three weeks of Janu-

ary gives a distinct taste for what the rest of the year may
bring – rising risk appetite, growing flows into equities, more
active corporates and a steadier macro climate. The initial
boost that ECB President Mario Draghi gave to the markets
has been supplemented by hopes of a turnaround in Japan’s
fortunes, a partial settlement of the fiscal cliff debate and
more solid macro data from China.
At this stage, the issue is whether the rally can develop in-
to a more durable and formidable bull market for equities. In
the short term, some measures of sentiment are looking
stretched, though any correction in the coming months should
be regarded as a buying opportunity. For example, the VIX in-
dex of volatility is at its lowest level in over five years. Equally,
our equity risk appetite indicator is close to historic highs. Oth-
er tactical indicators, such as earnings momentum, are not
convincing. At this point in the rally, many equity markets are
close to fair value levels, and would require a sustained period
of low volatility and rising risk appetite to push higher toward
our “optimistic” targets.
Maintain cyclical stance
In that respect, with the “spending cliff” and Italian elections on
the horizon, it may be reasonable to see some short-term con-
solidation in the rally. However, should the business cycle con-
tinue to recover in at least the US and Asia, and importantly,
corporate spending (on capex and mergers/acquisitions) pick
up in a meaningful way, we believe that the stage would be
set for a very significant shift in sentiment toward equities.
We therefore maintain our cyclical bias at the equity sector
level, preferring sectors like industrials and energy to more de-
fensive telecoms and utilities. At the regional level, we are over-

weight the US, where the macro outlook is promising, and un-
derweight Switzerland, which now looks expensive for a tradi-
tionally defensive market. We have recently upgraded Japan
from underweight to neutral, given the potential for an econom-
ic and market re-rating. We have downgraded Australia to un-
derweight, as it appears expensive and unattractive from an
earnings momentum point of view. Our CS Top 30 portfolio
has also become more cyclical – at the end of last year, we ad-
ded EM consumer facing companies like Sberbank and BMW.
Finally, better risk appetite and a recovering business cycle
bode well for our Megatrend stocks (please see Megatrends
article for a list of our Megatrend Champions).
(25/01/2013)
14 Equities 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
Global equity sector strategy and top picks
Asia ex Japan (N) / Ja-
pan (N)# / Australia (N)
Latin America
(U)# / Emer-
ging Europe &
Africa (N)
USA (O)Switzerland (U)Europe (N) /
UK (N)
Industry (strategic weight)Sector (strategic
weight)
Cnooc LtdNovatek*, Ultra-
par*+
Anadarko Petro-
leum+, Apache+,
Schlumberger+

-Royal Dutch ShellEnergy (O)Energy (O)
-Mexichem*+ LindeChemicals (N)Materials (N)
China National Building+ Holcim-Construction Materials (N)
BHP Billiton Limited Rio TintoMetals & Mining (N)
Pulp & Paper (N)
Keppel Corp, Gamuda*-Caterpillar, Gener-
al Electric, Honey-
well+
ABB, SchindlerSchneider Elec-
tric+, Siemens+
Capital Goods (O)Industrials (O)
Adecco-Commercial Services & Supplies (N)
Air China -H Transportation, incl. Logistics (N)
Toyota Motors, Bridge-
stone
BMWAutomobiles & Components (N)Consumer discre-
tionary (U)
Consumer Durables & Apparel, Tex-
tiles, Apparel & Luxury (N)
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure (N)
Time Warner Media (N)
Home Depot+Dufry-Retailing (U)
Food & Staples Retailing (N)Consumer staples
(U)
-AmBev* SABMillerBeverages (N)
-Brasil Foods*Mondelez+Aryzta, Nestlé-Food Products (U)
Tobacco (U)
Procter &
Gamble
-Reckitt BenckiserHousehold & Personal Products (N)

Zimmer+ Healthcare Equipment & Services (N)Healthcare (N)
Biotechnology (N)
Astellas Pharma+-Merck & Co.Roche
(Genussscheine),
Lonza+, Tecan+
Bayer, Hikma
Pharmaceuticals
Pharmaceuticals (N)
China Construction Bank,
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial
Group, Kasikornbank*,
Bank Mandiri*, DBS, HD-
FC Bank+, Mitsubishi+
Mizuho Financial Group+
Sberbank* Unicredit+Banks (N)Financials (O)
Citigroup, JPMor-
gan+
Partners Group+-Diversified Financials (N)
Zurich Insurance
Group
Allianz, AXAInsurance (O)
Asian Property Develop-
ment, Henderson Land De-
velopment, Swire Proper-
ties
Real Estate (O)
-Mail.ru*+Mastercard Software & Services (O)IT (O)
Samsung*, Lenovo,
Toshiba
Technology Hardware & Equipment

(O)
Intel+-Infineon Technolo-
gies+
Semiconductors & Semiconductor
Equipment (N)
Diversified Telecoms (U)Telecom services
(U)
SoftbankAmerica Movil*+ Wireless Telecoms(U)
IberdrolaUtilities (U)Utilities (U)
This is our sector strategy and top picks as of 28 January 2013 recommended by Credit Suisse, Private Banking division. Our sector/industry strategy shows our sector/industry preferences with recommendations relative to re-
gional benchmarks: Global: (MSCI World in USD), Europe (MSCI Europe in EUR), Switzerland (Swiss Market Index in CHF), USA (S&P 500 in USD), Asia/Pacific (MSCI AC Asia/Pacific in USD). An overweight (underweight) is
a recommendation to invest more (less) than in a neutral position indicated by the market-cap weights of the respective benchmarks. The sector/industry weights as well as the neutral positions in figures are available upon re-
quest; please contact your relationship manager. The Top Picks is a selection of our favorite stocks within our coverage. The selection was made to reflect the sector/industry and regional preferences. Regular full updates are
provided via our Research Monthly publications as well as in our Equity Research reports. Additionally, we publish our adds and drops in our Research Daily publication. Legend: (O) = Overweight, (N) = Neutral, (U) = Under-
weight. (*) = Emerging Markets top picks. Changes are marked as follows: (+) = additions to the top picks, (#) = changes to sector/industry/country weightings. For further information, including disclosures with respect to any
other issuers, please refer to the Credit Suisse Global Research Disclosure site at: Please note that trading facilities in certain securities may be limited.
Source: Credit Suisse
15 Equities 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
Alternative investments
Directional hedge
fund styles and US
REITS offer
opportunities
 Real estate, directional hedge funds and
selected precious metals offer the most
upside among alternative investments.
 US REITS remain attractive – even after
the recent rally.
Tobias Merath
Head Commodities & Alternative Investments Research

, +41 44 333 13 62
Platinum with a time horizon of 6–12 months
The market is undersupplied and undervalued.
Buy
Selectivity remains key
Plentiful liquidity, low volatility and a recovering US housing
market should support certain hedge fund styles as well as
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS). But growth is unlikely
to pick up strongly enough to trigger a lasting commodity rally.
Selectivity remains key.
Commodities: Neutral, but some selected opportunities
exist
Commodities started reasonably well into the new year.
Growth is picking up, but not strongly enough to trigger a last-
ing commodity rally. So, beyond the tactical time horizon, our
outlook is neutral. Within commodities, gold has modest up-
side, given the ongoing real interest rate regime. However,
platinum and palladium should perform better, given structural
supply side problems, combined with recovering demand and
undervaluation. Oil could also trade moderately higher amid
economic stabilization. Surging US oil and gas production
should limit the upside, but creates opportunities in energy
equities (Top 2013 Investment Idea No. 4).
Hedge funds: Good liquidity conditions to help hedge
funds in 2013
The DJ CS Hedge Fund Index ended 2012 with a slightly be-
low average performance of 7.7%. Given the low volatility and
good liquidity conditions, the market environment for hedge
funds continues to look favorable. Directional strategies that
benefit from rising stock markets and flexible global macro

strategies should perform particularly well. We have upgraded
managed futures strategies to neutral. This trend-dependent
strategy suffered from whipsawing markets in 2012, but
should do better this year amid steadier market conditions.
Real estate: US REITs remain attractive
Global Real Estate Investment Trusts have started the year
well, and we see further upside despite richer valuations. Glob-
al REITs continue to offer attractive dividend yields of 4.3% on
average. Regionally, we prefer the USA due to more favorable
growth prospects. Recently, the US NAREIT total return index
reached its pre-financial crisis high of 2007. However, there
are major differences to the situation back then: Today, US
equity REITs’ balance sheets are far healthier (indicated by
lower leverage), commercial real estate rents are increasing
and monetary policy should remain supportive.
(24/01/2013)
Performance of Alternative Investments
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12
Commodities (Credit Suisse Commodity Benchmark) Real Estate (Global REITS)
Hedge funds (DJ Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index)
Indexed performance in USD, January 2004 = 100
Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse / IDC
16 Alternative investments 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly

Foreign exchange
Diversification into
emerging market
currencies
 EUR forecasts raised to USD 1.37 and
CHF 1.30 in 12 months.
 Currency portfolio extended to include
EM, with allocations to CNH, MXN, PLN
and TRY.
Joe Prendergast
Head of Global FX, Fixed Income and Credit Research
, +41 44 332 83 18
Extreme liquidity conditions among the major central banks are
set to undermine the value of traditional “hard” currencies relat-
ive to emerging market currencies – especially of those coun-
tries where external and fiscal balances are healthy and in-
terest rates are not zero. To reflect this diversification theme
clearly in our model currency portfolios, we have expanded the
currency universe to include the most accessible emerging
market currencies. We add our most-favored currencies to the
chosen allocation: CNH and MXN (Top 2013 Investment Idea
No.6), PLN and TRY, due to carry.
Our USD-based model currency allocation also diversifies
notably to EUR, which we expect to stay firm as ECB easing
expectations are wound down and risk premia fade. We ex-
pect EUR/USD to rise to 1.38 over 3M, and raise our 12M
forecast to 1.37 (from 1.35). While the CHF should hold up
against a softer USD, there are risks of a further decline vs. a
stronger EUR, given signs of a resumption of capital outflows
from Switzerland. We raise our 12M EUR/CHF forecast from

1.24 to 1.30.
The JPY has entered a long-term technical downtrend,
supported by the new government’s pledge to overcome defla-
tion. But the BoJ’s actions have disappointed so far.
USD/JPY spot levels currently near 90 are thus not an attract-
ive entry point, in our view. (24/01/2013)
USD model currency portfolio
Our USD-based currency portfolio shows an assumed 60%
benchmark home bias and 40% exposure to a broader uni-
verse of foreign currencies, against which we allocate strategic-
ally and tactically, according to our views and portfolio analyt-
ics.
Americas
USD 60% USD 46% -1% USD 45%
0% CAD 0% 6% CAD 6%
0%
MXN
7% -3% MXN 4%
EMEA 0% EUR 18% -2% EUR 16%
0% PLN 8% -2% PLN 6%
0% TRY 6% -1% TRY 5%
0% SEK 6% -1% SEK 5%
0% CHF 0% 4% CHF 4%
0% GBP 0% 0% GBP 0%
0% NOK 0% 0% NOK 0%
0% RUB 0% 0% RUB 0%
0% ZAR 0% 0% ZAR 0%
APAC
0% CNH 5% 1% CNH 6%
0% JPY 0% 0% JPY 0%

0% AUD 0% 0% AUD 0%
0% NZD 0% 0% NZD 0%
0% SGD 0% 0% SGD 0%
Gold
0% XAU 4% -1% XAU 3%
FX 40%
FX
Tactical
Overlay
=
Optimal
Portfolio
Core
Diversification
Strategic
Allocation
+
USD
base
USD
FX
USD
MXN
EUR
PLN
TRY
SEK
CNH
XAU
USD

CAD
MXN
EUR
PLN
TRY
SEK
CHF
CNH
XAU
Source: Credit Suisse
17 Foreign exchange 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
Important information on derivatives
Option premiums and prices mentioned are indicative only. Option premiums and prices can be subject to very rapid changes:
The prices and premiums mentioned are as of the time indicated in the text and might have changed substantially in the mean-
time.
Pricing
Derivatives are complex instruments and are intended for sale only to investors who are capable of understanding and assuming
all the risks involved. Investors must be aware that adding option positions to an existing portfolio may change the characteristics
and behavior of that portfolio substantially. A portfolio’s sensitivity to certain market moves can be heavily impacted by the lever-
age effect of options.
Risks
Investors who buy call options risk the loss of the entire premium paid if the underlying security trades below the strike price at ex-
piration.
Buying calls
Investors who buy put options risk loss of the entire premium paid if the underlying security finishes above the strike price at expir-
ation.
Buying puts
Investors who sell calls commit themselves to sell the underlying for the strike price, even if the market price of the underlying is
substantially higher. Investors who sell covered calls (own the underlying security and sell a call) risk limiting their upside to the
strike price plus the upfront premium received and may have their security called away if the security price exceeds the strike

price of the short call. Additionally, the investor has full downside participation that is only partially offset by the premium received
upfront. If investors are forced to sell the underlying they might be subject to taxing. Investors shorting naked calls (i.e. selling
calls but without holding the underlying security) risk unlimited losses of security price less strike price.
Selling calls
Put sellers commit to buying the underlying security at the strike price in the event the security falls below the strike price. The
maximum loss is the full strike price less the premium received for selling the put.
Selling puts
Investors who buy call spreads (buy a call and sell a call with a higher strike) risk the loss of the entire premium paid if the underly-
ing trades below the lower strike price at expiration. The maximum gain from buying call spreads is the difference between the
strike prices, less the upfront premium paid.
Buying call spreads
Selling naked call spreads (sell a call and buy a farther out-of-the-money call with no underlying security position): Investors risk a
maximum loss of the difference between the long call strike and the short call strike, less the upfront premium taken in, if the un-
derlying security finishes above the long call strike at expiration. The maximum gain is the upfront premium taken in, if the secur-
ity finishes below the short call strike at expiration.
Selling naked call spreads
Investors who buy put spreads (buy a put and sell a put with a lower strike price) also have a maximum loss of the upfront premi-
um paid. The maximum gain from buying put spreads is the difference between the strike prices, less the upfront premium paid.
Buying put spreads
Buying strangles (buy put and buy call): The maximum loss is the entire premium paid for both options, if the underlying trades
between the put strike and the call strike at expiration.
Buying strangles
Investors who are long a security and short a strangle or straddle risk capping their upside in the security to the strike price of the
call that is sold plus the upfront premium received. Additionally, if the security trades below the strike price of the short put, in-
vestors risk losing the difference between the strike price and the security price (less the value of the premium received) on the
short put and will also experience losses in the security position if they owns shares. The maximum potential loss is the full value
of the strike price (less the value of the premium received) plus losses on the long security position. Investors who are short na-
ked strangles or straddles have unlimited potential loss since, if the security trades above the call strike price, investors risk losing
the difference between the strike price and the security price (less the value of the premium received) on the short call. In addi-
tion, they are obligated to buy the security at the put strike price (less upfront premium received) if the security finishes below the

put strike price at expiration.
Selling strangles or straddles
Source: Credit Suisse
18 Foreign exchange 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
Risk disclaimer
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in
making their investment decision. For a discussion of the risks
of investing in the securities mentioned in this report, please
refer to the following Internet link:
/>CS may not have taken any steps to ensure that the securities
referred to in this report are suitable for any particular investor.
CS will not treat recipients as its customers by virtue of their re-
ceiving the report. The investments or services contained or re-
ferred to in this report may not be suitable for you and it is re-
commended that you consult an independent investment ad-
visor if you are in doubt about such investments or investment
services. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal,
accounting or tax advice or a representation that any invest-
ment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual cir-
cumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommenda-
tion to you.
The price, value of and income from any of the securities
or financial instruments mentioned in this report can fall as well
as rise. The value of securities and financial instruments is sub-
ject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or ad-
verse effect on the price or income of such securities or finan-
cial instruments. Investors in securities such as ADR’s, the val-
ues of which are influenced by currency volatility, effectively as-
sume this risk. Structured securities are complex instruments,
typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale

only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understand-
ing and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any
structured security may be affected by changes in economic,
financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot
and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity,
market conditions and volatility, and the credit quality of any is-
suer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing
a structured product should conduct their own investigation
and analysis of the product and consult with their own profes-
sional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a pur-
chase.
Some investments discussed in this report have a high
level of volatility. High volatility investments may experience
sudden and large falls in their value causing losses when that
investment is realized. Those losses may equal your original in-
vestment. Indeed, in the case of some investments the poten-
tial losses may exceed the amount of initial investment, in such
circumstances you may be required to pay more money to sup-
port those losses. Income yields from investments may fluctu-
ate and, in consequence, initial capital paid to make the invest-
ment may be used as part of that income yield. Some invest-
ments may not be readily realizable and it may be difficult to
sell or realize those investments, similarly it may prove difficult
for you to obtain reliable information about the value, or risks,
to which such an investment is exposed.
19 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
Disclosure Appendix
Analyst certification
The analysts identified in this report hereby certify that views about the
companies and their securities discussed in this report accurately reflect

their personal views about all of the subject companies and securities. The
analysts also certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be
directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in
this report.
Knowledge Process Outsourcing (KPO) Analysts mentioned in this report
are employed by Credit Suisse Business Analytics (India) Private Limited.
Important disclosures
Credit Suisse policy is to publish research reports, as it deems appropri-
ate, based on developments with the subject company, the sector or the
market that may have a material impact on the research views or opinions
stated herein. Credit Suisse policy is only to publish investment research
that is impartial, independent, clear, fair and not misleading.
The Credit Suisse Code of Conduct to which all employees are obliged to
adhere, is accessible via the website at:
/>For more detail, please refer to the information on independence of finan-
cial research, which can be found at:
/>The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received com-
pensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total
revenues, a portion of which is generated by Credit Suisse Investment
Banking business.
Equity rating history as of (29/01/2013)
DateRatingCompany
07/11/2012BUYBMW (BMW GY)
03/08/2012BUY
04/05/2012BUY
15/03/2012BUY
09/03/2012BUY
11/01/2012BUY
16/01/2013BUYBRIDGESTONE (5108 JP)
13/11/2012BUY

08/08/2012BUY
14/05/2012BUY
24/10/2011BUY
05/11/2012BUYCHEVRON (CVX US)
02/08/2012BUY
04/05/2012BUY
31/01/2012BUY
01/11/2011BUY
24/01/2013BUYGOOGLE (GOOG US)
23/10/2012BUY
20/07/2012BUY
03/05/2012BUY
13/04/2012BUY
23/01/2012BUY
14/11/2012BUYHOME DEPOT (HD US)
27/08/2012BUY
14/08/2012BUY
16/05/2012BUY
23/02/2012BUY
16/11/2011BUY
15/01/2013BUYHONDA MOTOR (7267
JP)
30/10/2012BUY
DateRatingCompany
01/08/2012BUY
17/07/2012BUY
06/12/2011BUY
10/01/2013BUYINFINEON TECHNOLO-
GIES (IFX GR)
20/11/2012HOLD

26/09/2012HOLD
01/08/2012HOLD
27/06/2012HOLD
26/06/2012HOLD
04/05/2012HOLD
02/02/2012HOLD
01/02/2012HOLD
31/01/2012HOLD
30/01/2012HOLD
23/11/2011BUY
21/01/2013BUYINTEL (INTC US)
18/10/2012BUY
11/09/2012BUY
18/07/2012BUY
18/04/2012BUY
18/04/2012BUY
23/01/2012BUY
24/01/2013BUYLENOVO (992 HK)
09/11/2012BUY
16/03/2012BUY
13/01/2012BUY
19/10/2012BUYMICROSOFT (MSFT US)
20/07/2012BUY
19/06/2012BUY
20/04/2012BUY
19/03/2012BUY
24/01/2012BUY
17/12/2012BUYMITSUBISHI UFJ FINAN-
CIAL GROUP (8306 JP)
21/02/2012BUY

30/09/2010BUY
23/02/2012BUYMIZUHO FINANCIAL
GROUP (8411 JP)
30/09/2010BUY
19/12/2012BUYORACLE (ORCL US)
21/09/2012BUY
19/06/2012BUY
23/03/2012HOLD
23/12/2011HOLD
04/12/2012BUYPARTNERS GROUP HOLD-
ING (PGHN SW)
05/11/2012RESTRICTED
04/09/2012BUY
24/07/2012BUY
04/04/2012BUY
12/01/2012BUY
05/11/2012BUYPRICELINE.COM INC
(PCLN US)
09/08/2012BUY
10/05/2012BUY
30/03/2012BUY
02/03/2012BUY
17/02/2012BUY
08/11/2012BUYQUALCOMM (QCOM US)
24/07/2012BUY
09/05/2012BUY
03/02/2012BUY
02/02/2012BUY
03/11/2011BUY
20 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly

DateRatingCompany
11/01/2013BUYSAMSUNG ELECTRONICS
(005930 KS)
29/10/2012BUY
27/08/2012BUY
27/04/2012BUY
23/03/2012BUY
08/02/2012HOLD
28/11/2011BUY
06/12/2012BUYSBERBANK (SBER RU)
24/09/2012BUY
17/09/2012RESTRICTED
31/08/2012BUY
31/05/2012BUY
30/03/2012BUY
21/03/2012BUY
02/12/2011BUY
22/01/2013BUYSCHLUMBERGER (SLB
US)
22/10/2012BUY
23/07/2012BUY
23/04/2012BUY
24/01/2012BUY
02/11/2012BUYSOFTBANK (9984 JP)
17/10/2012BUY
11/10/2012BUY
04/09/2012BUY
29/06/2012BUY
17/08/2011BUY
04/01/2013BUYSUMITOMO MITSUI FINAN-

CIAL GROUP (8316 JP)
21/02/2012BUY
16/11/2011BUY
14/01/2013BUYTOYOTA MOTOR (7203
JP)
06/11/2012BUY
07/08/2012BUY
10/05/2012BUY
13/02/2012BUY
06/12/2011BUY
18/01/2013BUYTSMC (2330 TT)
26/10/2012HOLD
20/07/2012HOLD
09/05/2012BUY
03/02/2012HOLD
19/01/2012BUY
The subject issuer (BMW, CHEVRON, GOOGLE, HOME DEPOT,
HONDA MOTOR, INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES, INTEL, LENOVO, MI-
CROSOFT, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, MIZUHO FINAN-
CIAL GROUP, ORACLE, PARTNERS GROUP HOLDING,
PRICELINE.COM INC, SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS, SBERBANK,
SCHLUMBERGER, SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, TOYOTA
MOTOR) currently is, or was during the 12-month period preceding the
date of distribution of this report, a client of Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse
provided investment banking services to the subject company (BMW,
CHEVRON, GOOGLE, HOME DEPOT, HONDA MOTOR, INFINEON
TECHNOLOGIES, INTEL, LENOVO, MICROSOFT, MITSUBISHI UFJ
FINANCIAL GROUP, MIZUHO FINANCIAL GROUP, ORACLE, PART-
NERS GROUP HOLDING, PRICELINE.COM INC, SAMSUNG ELEC-
TRONICS, SBERBANK, SCHLUMBERGER, SUMITOMO MITSUI FINAN-

CIAL GROUP, TOYOTA MOTOR) within the past 12 months. Credit
Suisse provided non-investment banking services, which may include
Sales and Trading services, to the subject issuer (BMW, HOME DEPOT,
INTEL, MICROSOFT, PARTNERS GROUP HOLDING) within the past 12
months. Credit Suisse has managed or co-managed a public offering of
securities for the subject issuer (BMW, GOOGLE, HOME DEPOT,
HONDA MOTOR, INTEL, LENOVO, MICROSOFT, MITSUBISHI UFJ
FINANCIAL GROUP, MIZUHO FINANCIAL GROUP, ORACLE, PART-
NERS GROUP HOLDING, SBERBANK, SUMITOMO MITSUI FINAN-
CIAL GROUP, TOYOTA MOTOR) within the past three years. Credit
Suisse has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the
subject issuer (BMW, HONDA MOTOR, LENOVO, MITSUBISHI UFJ FIN-
ANCIAL GROUP, MIZUHO FINANCIAL GROUP, ORACLE, PARTNERS
GROUP HOLDING, SBERBANK, SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL
GROUP, TOYOTA MOTOR) within the past 12 months. Credit Suisse has
received investment banking related compensation from the subject issuer
(BMW, CHEVRON, GOOGLE, HONDA MOTOR, INFINEON TECHNO-
LOGIES, INTEL, LENOVO, MICROSOFT, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL
GROUP, MIZUHO FINANCIAL GROUP, ORACLE, PARTNERS GROUP
HOLDING, SBERBANK, SCHLUMBERGER, SUMITOMO MITSUI FIN-
ANCIAL GROUP, TOYOTA MOTOR) within the past 12 months. Credit
Suisse has received compensation for products and services other than in-
vestment banking services from the subject issuer (BMW, HOME DEPOT,
INTEL, MICROSOFT, PARTNERS GROUP HOLDING) within the past 12
months. Credit Suisse expects to receive or intends to seek investment
banking related compensation from the subject issuer (BMW, BRIDGE-
STONE, CHEVRON, GOOGLE, HOME DEPOT, HONDA MOTOR, IN-
FINEON TECHNOLOGIES, INTEL, LENOVO, MICROSOFT, MIT-
SUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, MIZUHO FINANCIAL GROUP, OR-
ACLE, PARTNERS GROUP HOLDING, PRICELINE.COM INC, QUAL-

COMM, SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS, SBERBANK, SCHLUMBERGER,
SOFTBANK, SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, TOYOTA MO-
TOR) within the next three months. As at the date of this report, Credit
Suisse acts as a market maker or liquidity provider in the securities of the
subject issuer (CHEVRON, GOOGLE, HOME DEPOT, HONDA MOTOR,
INTEL, MICROSOFT, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, ORACLE,
PRICELINE.COM INC, QUALCOMM, SCHLUMBERGER, TOYOTA MO-
TOR). Credit Suisse holds a trading position in the subject issuer (BMW,
BRIDGESTONE, CHEVRON, GOOGLE, HOME DEPOT, HONDA MO-
TOR, INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES, INTEL, LENOVO, MICROSOFT, MIT-
SUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP, MIZUHO FINANCIAL GROUP, OR-
ACLE, PARTNERS GROUP HOLDING, PRICELINE.COM INC, QUAL-
COMM, SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS, SBERBANK, SCHLUMBERGER,
SOFTBANK, SUMITOMO MITSUI FINANCIAL GROUP, TOYOTA MO-
TOR, TSMC). As at the end of the preceding month, Credit Suisse benefi-
cially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of (PART-
NERS GROUP HOLDING).
Additional disclosures for the following jurisdictions
United Kingdom: For fixed income disclosure information for clients of
Credit Suisse (UK) Limited and Credit Suisse Securities (Europe) Limited,
please call +41 44 333 33 99.
For further information, including disclosures with respect to any other is-
suers, please refer to the Credit Suisse Global Research Disclosure site
at:
/>Guide to analysis
Equity rating allocation as of (29/01/2013)
Investment banking
interests onlyOverall
41.32 %40.26 %BUY
48.5 %49.76 %HOLD

7.58 %7.57 %SELL
2.59 %2.42 %RESTRICTED
Relative stock performance
At the stock level, the selection takes into account the relative attractive-
ness of individual shares versus the sector, market position, growth pro-
spects, balance-sheet structure and valuation. The sector and country re-
commendations are "overweight," "neutral", and "underweight" and are as-
signed according to relative performance against the respective regional
and global benchmark indices.
21 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
Absolute stock performance
The stock recommendations are BUY, HOLD and SELL and are depend-
ent on the expected absolute performance of the individual stocks, gener-
ally on a 6-12 months horizon based on the following criteria:
10% or greater increase in absolute
share price
BUY
variation between -10% and +10% in
absolute share price
HOLD
10% or more decrease in absolute
share price
SELL
In certain circumstances, internal and ex-
ternal regulations exclude certain types
of communications, including e.g. an in-
vestment recommendation during the
course of Credit Suisse engagement in
an investment banking transaction.
RESTRICTED

Research coverage has been concluded.TERMINATED
Absolute bond performance
The bond recommendations are based fundamentally on forecasts for total
returns versus the respective benchmark on a 3-6 month horizon and are
defined as follows:
Expectation that the bond issue will out-
perform its specified benchmark
BUY
Expectation that the bond issue will per-
form in line with the specified bench-
mark
HOLD
Expectation that the bond issue will un-
derperform its specified benchmark
SELL
In certain circumstances, internal and ex-
ternal regulations exclude certain types
of communications, including e.g. an in-
vestment recommendation during the
course of Credit Suisse engagement in
an investment banking transaction.
RESTRICTED
Credit Suisse HOLT
With respect to the analysis in this report based on the HOLT(tm) method-
ology, Credit Suisse certifies that (1) the views expressed in this report ac-
curately reflect the HOLT methodology and (2) no part of the Firm's com-
pensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific views disclosed
in this report. The Credit Suisse HOLT methodology does not assign rat-
ings to a security. It is an analytical tool that involves use of a set of propri-
etary quantitative algorithms and warranted value calculations, collectively

called the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model, that are consistently ap-
plied to all the companies included in its database. Third-party data (includ-
ing consensus earnings estimates) are systematically translated into a num-
ber of default variables and incorporated into the algorithms available in
the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model. The source financial statement,
pricing, and earnings data provided by outside data vendors are subject to
quality control and may also be adjusted to more closely measure the un-
derlying economics of firm performance. These adjustments provide con-
sistency when analyzing a single company across time, or analyzing mul-
tiple companies across industries or national borders. The default scenario
that is produced by the Credit Suisse HOLT valuation model establishes
the baseline valuation for a security, and a user then may adjust the de-
fault variables to produce alternative scenarios, any of which could occur.
The Credit Suisse HOLT methodology does not assign a price target to a
security. The default scenario that is produced by the Credit Suisse HOLT
valuation model establishes a warranted price for a security, and as the
third-party data are updated, the warranted price may also change. The de-
fault variables may also be adjusted to produce alternative warranted
prices, any of which could occur. Additional information about the Credit
Suisse HOLT methodology is available on request.
CFROI(r), CFROE, HOLT, HOLTfolio, HOLTSelect, HS60, HS40, Value-
Search, AggreGator, Signal Flag and "Powered by HOLT" are trademarks
or registered trademarks of Credit Suisse or its affiliates in the United
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For technical research
Where recommendation tables are mentioned in the report, "Close" is the
latest closing price quoted on the exchange. "MT" denotes the rating for
the medium-term trend (3-6 months outlook). "ST" denotes the short-term
trend (3-6 weeks outlook). The ratings are "+" for a positive outlook (price

likely to rise), "0" for neutral (no big price changes expected) and "-" for a
negative outlook (price likely to fall). Outperform in the column "Rel perf"
denotes the expected performance of the stocks relative to the bench-
mark. The "Comment" column includes the latest advice from the analyst.
In the column "Recom" the date is listed when the stock was recommen-
ded for purchase (opening purchase). "P&L" gives the profit or loss that
has accrued since the purchase recommendation was given.
For a short introduction to technical analysis, please refer to Technical Ana-
lysis Explained at:
/>Global disclaimer / important information
For a discussion of the risks of investing in the securities mentioned in this
report, please refer to the following Internet link:
/>References in this report to Credit Suisse include subsidiaries and affili-
ates. For more information on our structure, please use the following link:
/>The information and opinions expressed in this report were produced by
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22 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
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Giles Keating
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Nannette Hechler-Fayd'herbe
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Tobias Merath
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Joe Prendergast

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24 29/01/2013 Credit Suisse - Research Monthly
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