Báo cáo "Xu thế toàn cầu và giải pháp phát triển đất nước giai đoạn 2010-2025 " pot

D
D
D D
NGHIEN
ClilU
-
TRAO DOI
XU
THf
TOAN
CAU VA
GIAI
PHAP PHAT
TRI^N
DAT Mdc
GIAI DOAN
2010-2025
Nguyen Van Lang*
1.
Kinh te the gidi va
nhufng
van de toan
cau
d
giai doan dau thien nien ky
mdi
Tii nvia sau cua the ky XX nhan loai da
chijtng
kien nhiing bien dong to 16n tren quy
mo toan cau vdi nhiing cuoc chay dua vii
trang, dich chuyen chinh tri xa hoi va nhiing

canh tranh kinh te khong bien gi6i. Tren
thiic te, xa hoi loai ngiidi dang thay doi ve
cha't
de chuyen sang mot nen van minh m6i
cua Thdi dai
tri
tue, ma nguyen nhan va
dong
liic chinh
la cuoc
each
mang khoa hoc
cong nghe hien dai.
Bu6c
qua do sang Thien
nien ky mdi da danh dau
sii
ket thiic
ciia
thdi dai lay chay dua vii trang toan cau la
chinh
va md ra thdi dai lay chay dua va canh
tranh kinh te, xen lan hdp tac va phat trien
lam muc tieu song con cua moi dan
toe.
Cuoc
chien tranh lanh chiem linh tron ven toan
bo tu duy chinh tri va va kinh te ciia nhan
loai hdn 40 nam qua, gid day dang diidc thay
the bcii mot cuoc "Chien tranh kinh

te*'
vdi
phiidng cham "Hoi nhap, Hdp tac va Canh
tranh". Chien tranh lanh ket thiic, tuy
khong md ra ky nguyen mdi hoa binh va
thinh viidng
nhii
nhan loai mong ddi nhifng
da tao thuan ldi cho xu the hoa diu, hoa
hoan trong quan he giiia cac quoc gia; tao
tien de da
ciic
hoa trong xu the da dang hoa,
da phiidng hda, hoi nhap khu
viic
va quoc te.
Trong dd, moi quoc gia va vung lanh tho deu
cvmg ton tai, ciing canh tranh va hdp tac.
Giai doan ngay nay, khoa hoc va cong
nghe diidc
khSng
dinh la dong
lUc
phat trien
va tang
triidng
kinh
te
cua cac quoc gia va
moi nen kinh te. Cach mang cong nghe hien

dai da gdp phan dang ke vao cham diit mau
thuin Dong - Tay va khdi tao
cue
dien mdi
tren cac mat: chinh tri, quan
sii,
kinh te, tai
chinh,
van hoa, thong tin Cong nghe thong
tin, cong nghe sinh hoc, cong nghe vat lieu,
cong nghe hang khong vii tru, cong nghe
nang
liidng
mdi va nhieu cong nghe khac da
tao diidc dot pha ldn trong nhiing lan sdng
doi mdi vi dai, (RAND Corporation 2009).
Ben canh
Cue
dien dia - chinh tri da
ciic,
da lan
liidt
xuat hien nhieu
cue
dien mdi
tren quy mo toan cau. Dd la: Dia-kinh
tevdi
tren 78.000 cong ty xuyen quoc gia, cd
780.000 chi nhanh niidc ngoai dang hoat
dong vdi tong tai san nam 2006 len tdi 52

nghin ty USD; Dia •
tdi
chinh vdi 3 dong tien
thanh toan quoc te la USD, EURO, YEN va
hang chuc dong tien thanh toan cua nhiing
niidc khac. Dia
-
thong tin vdi bieu triing la
mang Internet ngay mot nang cap va md
rong; Dia • vdn hod vdi 3 khoi di biet Anglo-
xdcxong, Hoi gido va Hdn hod tren quy mo
toan cau. Nhiing nam dau Thien nien ky
cue
dien mdi dang
tiidng
tac
l^n
nhau trong ddi
song eua xa hoi; diin ra dong thdi, thiidng
xuyen, lien
tue
va xam nhap lln nhau; da
lam thang tram va dao
Ion
diidng
loi
va
chien
liidc
doi ngoai ciia nhieu cac quoc gia

tren
khip
cac luc dia.
Tren quy mo toan eau va cae khu
viic,
qua
trinh toan cau hoa diin ra vdi tdc do eao,
Nguyen
Van
Lang, Tien sy kinh te,
Thii trUdng
Bo
Khoa hoc va Cong nghe.
S<f 29(11+12/2009)
QUAN
Lt
KINH
TC
Li ill 1J NGHIEN Cl)li
-
TRAP DPI
xu THf
TOAN CAU VA GIAI PHAP PHAT
TRI^N
DAT
NLfOC
GIAI
BOAN
2010-2025
khien

d'n
dinh tifdng
doi
tai moi quoc gia deu
cd nguy cd chuyen hoa thanh tinh the lien
tue xao tron. Van
de
dat ra la,
vdi tinh
each
dac
trifng
thdi dai, qua trinh tang triidng va
phat trien ngay cang nhanh, khi nao se dat
tdi miic gidi han va khi nao se
vifdt
qua kha
nang giam sat, dieu tiet va quan ly cua eae
nha lanh dao qudc gia, to chiie va dinh che
qudc te?. Day la khd khan vdi bat ky nha
lanh dao nao khi phai doi mat vdi nhiing van
de quoc te, nhiing van de mang
tinh
toan
cau. Thiic te nay ddi hdi phai cd nhiing nd
liic
phd'i hdp, hdp tac cua nhieu niidc thuoc
cac nen van hoa khac nhau.
Tien bo phi thiidng cua lich
sxi diia

tren
nhiing dot pha khoa hoc va cdng nghe, dang
dat ra nhieu van de mdi vdi nhiing thaeh
thiic to ldn ve to chiic quan ly dd'i vdi cac nha
lanh dao d moi qudc gia, td chiie va dinh
che
qudc te. Bung nd dan so',
khi
hau ndng len
tren quy md toan clu, can kiet nguon nifdc,
nang lifdng va tai nguyen thien nhien; d
nhiem mdi
trifdng,
triet pha pha
rifng,
huy
hoai da dang sinh hoe, loai va sinh canh;
tham hoa thien nhien; nan ddi, tinh trang
phan hoa giau ngheo cung vdi cac luong di
dan, dai dich AIDS va gan day la dich
eiim
H5N1 va HlNl la
nhufng thaeh
thiic thdi
dai rdng ldn.
Hien tai va trong tifdng lai, bat ky qudc
gia nao eiing deu phai dd'i mat va tim kiem
giai phap hiiu hieu cho 4 van de mang tinh
toan cau. Dd la: An ninh tdi chinh; An ninh
ndng luqng; An ninh

iMng
thUc;
An ninh
moi trudng va kem theo dd
la
cac van de xa
hoi nay sinh.
1.1.
An ninh tdi chinh
Dot pha
eiia
cdng nghe thdng tin truyen
thdng da pha vd
biic
tifdng khdng gian - thdi
gian, mot
lUdng khd'ng
lo phi vu giao dich tai
chinh da difdc thiic hien thdng qua mang tai
ehinh dien
tii
toan cau, lien thdng vdi td'c do
ciic
nhanh, tao nen mot khd'i
ladng
ldn tien
ao,
ed gia tri gap hang tram ngan lan gia tri
ddng tien that, ma khdng mot ai,
qud'c

gia
hay
td
chiic nao cd the kiem soat ndi. Hien
tlidng nay tao cdn sdng than tan pha he
thd'ng
tai chinh ngan hang cua cac niidc
phat trien. Rieng d My, neu nam 1990 luan
chuyen tien te trong mot thang eon d
miic
3000 ty USD, thi den nam 2000, da
vUdt
571
nghin ty USD, nghia la da tang tren 190 lan.
Cuoc khung hoang tin dung bat dau tu!
n^a
cudi nam 2007 d My, da lay lan tren quy md
toan eau mot each nhanh chdng; khien toan
bo thi trifdng tai chinh, tien te the gidi bi
chao dao, te liet. Nhieu td chufc tai chinh
quoc te hang dau thua
Id
nang, da gay hieu
ling sup dd dd'i vdi toan bo he thd'ng ngan
hang d cae niidc phat trien. Cuoc khung
hoang tai chinh tai My, da keo theo Nhat
Ban va nhieu nen kinh te ldn, nho khac rdi
vao suy thoai, buoc Chinh phu cac niidc nay
phai chi ra hang nghin ty USD de chong dd,
hoac phai cau ciiu ngudn hd trd tvf ben ngoai.

Gia ca tang vot vao cud'i nam 2007 va dau
nam 2008 gay bien dong ldn tai nhieu nifdc;
bdn con rdng chau A, ciing bi anh hifdng
nang ne, eho dii da bdm hang nghin ty USD
vao de
viic
day nen kinh te.
Trong bao eao "Trien vpng Kinh te The
gidi" (WEO) cdng bd'
triidc
hdi nghi thiidng
nien Miia Xuan 2009, Quy Tien te The gidi
(IMF) cho biet cuoc khung hoang hien nay
tac ddng bat ldi tdi hoat dong thiidng mai
qud'c te, khd'i lifdng thifdng mai
dii
kien giam
11%
va kinh te the gidi cung giam 1,3%
trong nam 2009 va
chi
tang
chtfng
0,6% vao
nam 2010 ( IMF 2009). Tvf thiic te cua
khung hoang tai chinh lan nay, lanh dao
nhieu niidc, cac td chiic va dinh che qud'c te
deu cd chung nhan xet la: Cuoc khung hoang
dd dnh
hicdng

tdi mpi niidc trong
cue
dien
dia - chinh tri khien nhieu niidc phai giam
bdt lap triidng ciing
rin
trong chinh sach ddi
ngoai. Khiing hoang tdi chinh vd suy thoai
kinh te todn cdu cho thdy vai trb vd
tdm.
quan trpng
ciia
Nhd niidc trong viec dieu
hdnh kinh
tevi
mo da lam sup dd hoc thuyet
cua phai kinh te "Tdn
tiX
do" va khdi day lai
Ly thuyet Keyne, di cao vai trb dieu tiet vl
mo cua Nhd
nUdc
ddi vdi nin kinh te.
Trong the gidi toan cau hoa, cae nen kinh
te
nim
trong
sii
tuy thuoc lln nhau
(Interdependence) d miic dd cao, dd xudt

QUAN LY KINH
T£
Si29nu12/2009)
xu JHi
TOAN
CAU
VA
GIAI
PHAP PHAT
TRif
N
DAT
NUdC
GIAI DOAN 2010-2025
NGHIEN ClilU
-
TRAP DPI
^^\\
hien mot
ca
che
xii
ly khung hoang dqi dien
cho cd nhiing nen kinh
te
phdt trien ldn dang
phdt trien: dd
Id
G-20. Mac dii cd
che

nay chiia
diing khdng it khuyet tat, song day
vin
difdc
coi la mot "hien tifdng" mdi cua thdi dai. Cuoc
khiing hoang tai chinh lan nay tai cac nifdc
phat trien nhat the gidi bao hieu Thdi dai Pax
Americana (Hda binh the gidi dudi
sii
ba chu
cua My) se ket thdc. Trong mot tifdng lai khdng
xa, the gidi se sdng trong nen hba binh
diidi sit
hd chu kinh te cua Trung Qudc - gqi
Id
Pax
Sinica. Theo GS kinh te ndi tieng
Niall
Ferguson thuoc Dai hoc Harvard (My) thi day
"Khong
phdi
Id sii liia
chpn, md
Id
vdn de thdi
gian vd dinh menh" .
1.
2. An ninh ndng
litgng
Phln ldn cac ngudn nang lifdng ma chiing

ta dang
s\l
dung deu bat ngudn tii hda thaeh
(than da, dau md, khi ddt ), la dang tai
nguyen khdng the tai tao, diidc khai thac tii
trong long dat va cac dai difdng. Theo
dii
bao,
ngudn nang lifdng nay se can kiet, dau
md thifdng mai
chi
cdn
dii dCing
60 nam, khi
tii
nhien 80 nam va than khoang 150 - 200
nam. Quy Bao ve Dong vat hoang da The
gidi (WWF) eho biet, con ngiidi dang
sii
dung
ngudn tai nguyen thien nhien vdi tdc do
nhanh hdn nhieu lan so vdi kha nang san
xuat mdi ciia hanh tinh. Loai ngifdi hien tieu
thu nhieu hdn 20% kha nang tai tao tai
nguyen eiia trai dat. Tif nam 1970 den 2000,
con ngiidi da
sii
dung 40% sd'ddng vat sd'ng
tren can, ngudn nifdc va sinh vat bien. Trong
giai doan 1961-2000, tieu thu nang lifdng

hoa thaeh (than, khi va dau
liia)
ciing tang
khoang 7 lan.
Trong xu the phat trien tieu diing, an
ninh nang lifdng dang trd thanh van de cap
bach; nhieu nifde tren the gidi dang ed
nhiing hanh ddng tang
cifdng
an ninh nang
lifdng va ldi giai cho van de nay la md rdng
viec
sii
dung nang lifdng tai tao (mat trdi,
gid, thuy dien, dia nhiet v.v.), khai thac td't
cae ngudn nang
lUdng
mdi (hydro, nhiet
hach, v.v.). Day la viec lam cd the gdp phan
tich
ciic
xda di hang loat cuoc chien tranh
hoac khung hoang dang cd nguy cd dien ra.
1.
3. An ninh
liicfng
thUc
Td Chiie Ndng - Liidng Lien Hiep Qud'c
(FAO)
dii

bao, nam 2009, sd' ngifdi thieu an
tren the gidi
vifdt ngifdng
mot ty. Theo
Jacques
Diouf,
Tdng Giam ddc FAO, nguy cd
ngifdi ngheo thieu an se cdn gia tang ciing
vdi cac kho
dii
trii lifdng thiic the gidi rdi
xudng miic thap nhat va viec san xuat ngay
cang bi bien ddi khi hau de doa. Ong ket
luan: "Khung hodng liidng thiic khong
nhiing vdn cbn do, md lqi cbn bi khung
hodng kinh te tdi chinh
Idm
cho gay gdt
them".
Tai Hoi nghi Bd triidng Bo Ndng
nghiep cae qud'c gia G8 thang 4/2009,
Kanayo Nwanze, Giam ddc Quy phat trien
Lifdng thiic The gidi (
FIDA)
eho biet "Tdi
ndm 2050, tdng sdn pham liicfng thiic the'
gidi buoc phdi tdng gdp doi mdi ddp Ung du
nhu cdu
cita cii
ddn tren hdnh tinh, de ed the

nudi mot dan sd' se len den 9 ty ngifdi. Ddy
Id
yen cdu nong nghiep the gidi phdi ddp iing
trong dieu kien ddn sd phdt trien binh
thiidng
nhii
hien nay".
Thaeh thiic an ninh liidng thiic ddi hdi
lanh dao cac qud'c gia, phai ed bien phap,
ehinh sach va ke hoach hanh ddng
nhim
tao
ra nhiing thay ddi khuynh hifdng
diu tif
ndng nghiep; xac lap nhiing van de, linh
viic
then chdt
ddi
vdi tang trifdng kinh te, dam
bao an ninh lifdng thiic tren pham vi toan
clu (Kanayo Nwanze, 2009).
1.
4. An ninh moi tnidng
Nhan loai dang phai
ddi
mat vdi nhieu
van de mdi triidng biic
xiic
va nan giai, ndi
bat nhat la nan can kiet cdc nguon tdi

nguyen thien nhien; 6 nhiim moi triidng vd
nhiing tai bien thien nhien. Neu d the ky
XVIII, Man-tuyt va Tiu-go
diia
ra cai
goi
la
Quy luqt ve
sii
gidm ddn
sii
phi nhieu cua
ddt dai; den the ky XIX, Tdm-xdn va Cd-ru-
xd dat van de ve
sii
can kiet cdc nguon ndng
liidng,
thi ngay nay con ngiidi da phai noi
den nguy ca can kiet todn bg cdc nguon tdi
nguyen thien nhien, ca tai tao va khdng tai
tao tren hanh tinh. Di cung can kiet
tai
nguyen thien nhien la van nan d nhiem mdi
triidng,
din
den nhiing hiem hoa
sinh thai
Stf2g(1U12/2009)
QUAN LY KINH
ti

VTJl
NGHIEN
COU
-
TRAP
DPI
xu
THf
TOAN CAU
VA
GIAI
PHAP PHAT
TRI^N
OAT
Nl/dC
GIAI
EXDAN
2010-2025
tiem tang, ma hau qua chiia the nao lifdng
het. Trong nhiing hiem hoa gay ra, nguy
hiem va nan giai la hien tifdng gay hieu Ung
nhd kinh,
16
thdng tdng 6-z6n,
miia
a-xit,
sa
mac hoa vd
sii
suy gidm da dang sinh hpc

lam bien ddi cac dieu kien thien nhien theo
chieu hifdng rat tieu
ciic
dd'i vdi
sii
sd'ng tren
trai dat.
Mot trong nhiing bien ddi sinh thai
nguy hiem nhat la
sii
thay ddi khi hdu trdi
ddt. Day la hau qua tong hdp, tat yeu ciia
cac hien tifdng d nhiim mdi trifdng. Theo
nhieu
dii
bao, nhiet dp trung binh cda trdi
ddt giiia the ky XXI se tang len tii
1,5°
C
den
4,5°C
va keo theo la biet bao hiem hoa
khac.
Theo G.B. Brdn-td-man, nguyen
Chu tich iiy ban Mdi trifdng va Phat trien
The gidi, bien ddi khi hau la mdi de doa
ldn nhat, nd khdng nhiing de doa
sii
tdn
vong

ciia
loai ngifdi, ma cdn uy hiep ca
tifdng lai Trai dat. Mdi nam nhan loai thai
ra khoang 7,9 Gton (ti tan) carbon
(diia
tren difdng lifdng hda hoc thi trong 3,7 tan
C02 cd chiia 1 tan carbon) tii viec dot chay
nhien lieu hda thaeh, va tif 1-2 Gton C do
tham hoa chay riing. Gidi han nguy hiem
ciia hanh tinh la
miic
tang nhiet do trung
binh toan clu len +2°C, tifdng iing vdi mat
do C02 trong bau khi quyen cham
miic
450ppm. Hien nay, mat do khi C02 trong
khi quyen la 390ppm, cd nghia la con
ngifdi chi difdc phep thai ra them 60ppm
khi C02. Van de cang trd nen nghiem
trong hdn khi nhiet do toan cau tang them
tren 2°C la Bien bang se khdng cdn tdn tai
d hai
ciic
Trai dat va
miic
niidc bien ddng
cao (Sea level rise - SLR)
Id
diiu khong
the trdnh khoi. Theo

IPCC,
khi SLR
dang cao
hdnlm,
Bangladesh se mat
khoang 1/5 dien tich, hdn 2.000 dam
vudng d viing duyen hai va thanh thi
tieu bang North Carolina (My) se
nim
difdi miic
niidc bien. Ba
mifdi
trong so'
cac thanh phd' ldn nhat cua the gidi dang
nim
gan bien,
Im
thuy trieu dang se day
triic tiep 300 trieu ngifdi vao tinh trang
nguy hiem.
1.5. Nhiing vdn de xd
hpi
Mot trong nhiing van de ndi len
gay
biic xiic
d moi qud'c gia va mdi ngifdi dan
la 6 nhiem moi triidng tinh thdn con
ngiidi. O nhiem van hda, d nhiem dao diic
la nhiing van de khd thay, nhifng siic huy
hoai ciia chiing thi that khdn lifdng.

O
day, cd the tam neu ra mot so' nhan xet ve
tham nhiing, mang Internet va van nan
riia tien.
Tham nhiing la viec
sif
dung quyen
liic,
uy tin va dia vi cdng cong de chiem doat
cac gia tri vat chat va tinh than cua xa hoi
hoac cua ngiidi khac. Doi tifdng tham
nhiing khdng chi la nhiing gia tri vat chat
nhif
ngifdi ta thifdng quan niem, ma cdn la
nhiing gia tri tinh than. O linh
vxfc
tinh
thin,
rnvfc do nguy hiem cvia tham nhiing
cdn ghe gdm hdn nhieu so vdi vat chat.
Trong linh
viic
cd ve
nhif
yen dn nay, hien
tlidng tham nhiing dien ra tinh vi, nang
ne va
siic
tan pha xa hoi cdn khdc liet hdn.
Tham nhiing la mot can benh cua nhan

loai,
tdn tai trong moi xa hoi, moi thdi dai,
moi he thd'ng chinh tri va moi dan tdc deu
phai dd'i mat. Cd the ndi, tham nhiing vdi
nhieu bien thai tinh vi dd la mot phan
thuoc ve ban chat ddi sd'ng con ngifdi.
Chiing ta khdng the xoa sach difdc tham
nhiing, ddn gian vi chiing ta khdng the
tieu diet het loai ngifdi. Do vay, khdng the
chi
nhin tham nhiing
diidi
con
mit
cua
nha tdi pham hoc ma phai nghien ciiu nd
mot
each
toan dien va bien chiing difdi
nhiing khia canh khac nhau cua ddi sd'ng
kinh te-xa hdi. Chi cd
each
nhin diing
din
va khach quan mdi giiip chiing ta cd diidc
nhiing phifdng thuo'c hieu nghiem de che
ngii,
hay it nhat la han che thii benh dich
xa hdi nay.
Internet

Id
mot mon ldi bdt ngd, nhiing
cdng
Id
mot nguy cd tiem dn to ldn. Hda
chat doc hai, thuoc trii sau, han the, for-
mol
"dau doc" the xac con ngiidi. The
nhifng thii "doc to" dang sd, khong chi lam
d nhiem ddi song tinh than cua ca xa hoi
ma cdn "dau doc" khiing khiep hdn ca ma
QUAN
Lt
KINH
it
siam*^vrm^
xu THf
TOAN CAU
VA
GIAI
PHAP PHAT
TRif
N
DAT
NLfOC GIAI
EXDAN
2010-2025
NGHIEN
Cllnj
-

TRAP
DPI
rrm
tiiy,
mai dam, dd la nhiing trang "Web
den". Ben canh ldi
ich
khdng the phii nhan
cua Internet, cdng nghe thdng tin ky dieu
tren nhiing website den ciing de trd thanh
cdng cu "truyen nhiem" van hda ddi truy,
hiiy hoai nhiing gia tri van hoa, dao
diic
cua moi qud'c gia, ma biet bao
the
he di
trifdc
da day cdng xay diing, giii gin.
Riia tien {Money Laundering) la viec bien
ddi thu nhap phi phap thanh tai san ma cac
cd quan cdng quyen khdng the truy ra ngudn
gdc.
Theo Quy Tien te Qud'c Te (IMF), hang
nam cd khoang 640 ti den 1,6 nghin ty USD,
khoang 2-5% GDP toan clu la tien ban.
Trong dd, khoang 250
ti
USD di vao
nUdc
My; lifdng tien nay ldn hdn tdng doanh thu

cua cac cdng ty cdng nghiep vii khi,
diu
hoa
va may bay. Do ddng dd la My va Euro difdc
sii dung chung hoac cdng nhan
nhif
la ndi te
ban ehinh thiic, nhieu lifdng tien khdng
id,
ca sach va
bin,
deu cd the chuyen tif
nUdc
nay sang nifde khac trong nhay mat, ngoai
tim
kiem soat
ciia
cd quan cdng quyen.
Ciing vdi do md kinh te d cac qud'c gia
tang vot,
hiu nhif
moi ngan hang, cdng ty
tai chinh, giao dich chiing khoan deu cd
ddi tac qudc te, tham chi 100% la cua nifdc
ngoai. Trong vdng 15 nam
gin
day lifdng
tien
lifu
hanh toan eau tang gap 3 lln; tif

nam 1990 den 2000 dau
tif
gian tiep nifdc
ngoa tang gap 10 lln va
diu tif
triic tiep
tang gan 3 lln (nam 2003 dat 560 ty USD).
Dieu hien nhien la, cang nhieu loai hinh
dieh vu tai chinh thi cang lam ed hoi va each
thiic de chuyen tien phi phap, hoac
difa
tien
ban vao ludng tien sach Tien ban va hoat
ddng riia tien lam sai lech cac thd'ng ke kinh
te,
lam anh hifdng sau sac den phan bd' thu
nhap,
tao bat cdng va lam chao dao
sii
tin
nhiem eiia xa hdi vao cae thi trifdng tai
chinh. 0 cac nifde kem
phit
trien, tham
nhiing, riia tien la van nan nhiie nhdi. Trai
lai,
nhiing nifde phifdng Tay lai khdng he
"che"
tien ban do tham nhiing d
elc

nifde
khac.
De chdng
rifa
tien, van de rd rang la
ein
cd quyet tam cao ciia cae lanh dao moi
qud'c gia trong
sii phdi
hdp toan cau.
The ky XX da vinh viin qua di vdi
tinh each la mot thdi ky phat trien "Hodng
kim",
"Thdi vdng son". Trong Thien nien
ky mdi, nhan loai, lanh dao d moi qud'c gia,
cae td chiic va dinh che the gidi dang
bUdc
vao mot thdi ky phat trien mdi, vdi ddi hdi
cao va nhieu hdn ve ly tri,
tU
duy khoa
hoc;
Viet Nam khdng
nim
ngoai bd'i canh
da neu va cang ddi hdi phai cd
tif
duy lanh
dao mdi.
2.

Thvfc
trang kinh te va
nhiifng
giai
phap xay diing dat
nvCdc
theo hiidng
"dan giau,
ntidc
manh"
Bude vao the'ky XXI, sau khi trd thanh
thanh vien chinh thiic ciia WTO, thiic
hien cam ket Quy che thifdng mai binh
thifdng vinh viin (PNTR) vdi Hoa Ky; cac
rao can thifdng mai dan difdc dd bd, vi the
ciia
Viet Nam tren trifdng qud'c te ngay
mot nang cao ciing vdi cac hoat ddng hdp
tac kinh te,
diu tif
md rdng va thi trifdng
qud'c te ngay cang difdc cung cd', tang
eUdng.
Nhd chinh tri dn dinh, an ninh -
qud'c phdng dam bao, Viet Nam da tao mdi
trifdng thuan ldi de thu
hiit
manh
diu tif
nifdc ngoai. Cd the ndi ea the va

liic
ciia
Viet Nam da manh len rat nhieu so vdi
nhiing nam trifdc. Ke tif khi
bit
dau cdng
cuoc ddi mdi, den nay Viet Nam da dat
dUde
nhieu thanh
tiiu
kinh te het siic to
ldn, duy tri diidc tdc do tang trifdng eao
difde
ca the gidi
thifa
nhan.
Trong suy thoai kinh te toan cau, nen
kinh te nifdc ta vdi do md ldn, phu thude
khdng nhd vao dau
tif nUdc
ngoai da chiu
nhieu tac ddng va nhiing khd khan, thaeh
thiic
dUdc dii bio vin
cdn gay
git.
Net ndi
bat trong anh hudng khung hoang tai
chinh toan clu la tang trifdng kinh te suy
giam; hau het cae nganh san xuat va dich

vu chu yeu deu bi giam
siit,
thi trifdng
xuat khau thu hep, dau
tif
nifdc ngoai va
ngudn ngoai hdi thu ve cd nhieu han che.
Ben canh nhiing sut giam nay, nhieu khd
khan ndi tai vdn cd ciia nen kinh
te vin
cham difdc
khic
phuc.
Sd29(1U12/2009)
OUAN
Lt
KINH
T^
[TOI
NGHIEN
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TRAP DDI
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OAT
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2010-2025
Phan tich thiic trang kinh te'-xa hdi
nhiing nam gan day cho thay, dau
tif
trong nifdc va ciia nifdc ngoai gia tang da
tao da tang trifdng manh ve kinh te,
nhifng do nen kinh te chifa cd chuyen bien
dang ke ve nang suat lao ddng, nang
liic
canh tranh va hieu qua thap, nen kinh te
phat trien chifa ben viing; hieu qua dau
tif
nhieu nam difdc danh gia vao loai thap
nhat trong khu
viic.
Ngudn
liic
quy nhat diidc coi trong ngay
nay la nhdn
liic,
lai chifa phat huy cd hieu
qua; tdi nguyen ddt dai sit dung manh
miin,
dat canh
tie
giam

siit
va dang cd xu
hiidng bi huy hoai. Tdi nguyen bien, mot
khu
viic
cd y nghia sinh tii dd'i vdi van
menh dat nifdc, song difdng
nhif
cdn bi
lang quen.
Sau hdn 20 nam ddi mdi, mac dii cd
nhieu thanh
tiiu
kinh te to ldn, nhifng
GDP theo dau ngifdi hien nay van thap va
cdn
nim
d khoang
each
kha xa so vdi cac
nifdc trong khu
viic,
chUa bing
1/2 so vdi
Indonesia, difdi 1/3 Thai Lan. Muc tieu
hoan thanh
sii
nghiep cdng nghiep hoa
theo hifdng hien dai vao nam 2020 van cdn
kha xa, trong khi thdi gian cdn lai khdng

nhi^u.
Bao cao Phdt trien Viet Nam 2009
cUa Ngdn hdng
Thd
gidi (WB) chi ra, cho
dii Viet Nam dat difdc miic tang trifdng
cao trong thdi gian dai, nhiing dang cdn
khoang each kha xa so vdi cac niidc trong
khu
viic;
bi tut hau ve kinh te tdi 51 nam
so vdi Indonesia, 95 nam so vdi Thai Lan
va 158 nam so vdi Singapore. Theo Diin
ddn Kinh te the gidi, hau het cac tieu chi
canh tranh trong kinh doanh ciia Viet
Nam deu
d
difdi
miic
trung binh (thap hdn
5 trong thang diem 10). Cdn theo
Tdchirc
Minh bach qudc te, Viet Nam difdc xep d
2,6/10 diem nam 2007 va 2,7/10 diem
trong nam 2008.
Chi
so' nay cho thay,
tham nhiing nifdc ta
vin
dang

d
miic rat
cao ( Thanh Phifdng va Thanh Y 2009).
Thiic tien hien nay cho thay, ldi the
phat trien cua Viet Nam thdi gian qua,
chu yeu
diia
tren ldi the lao dpng re vd
khai thdc tdi nguyen, dd
la
phiidng thiic
phdt trien theo chieu rpng (Extensive
Development) dang dan tdi ngifdng khdng
the vifdt qua. De dam bao
toe
do va nang
liic
canh tranh ciia minh, Viet Nam tat
yeu phai chuyen qua mot phifdng thiic
phdt trien mdi theo chiiu sdu (Intensive
Development)
diia
tren nen san xuat tham
dung cdng nghe va ky thuat, phat huy
td'i
da nhiing ldi the cd ban ma it niidc cd the
sanh difdc ve ngudn
liic
con ngiidi, nong
nghiep chdu A nhiet ddi gid

miia
vd hdn
mot
niia
bien gidi qudc gia
Id
bien cd bao
quanh.
Trong mot "The gidi phdng, todn the
gidi thdch thiic mpt ngiidi vd mpt ngiidi cd
the coi cd the gidi
Id
dd'i tdc cita minh",
tudi tho
ciia
san pham ngay mot
ngin,
thi
viec chuyen sang phifdng thiic phdt trien
theo chiiu sdu, da trd thanh ddi hdi biic
bach. Cham chuyen ddi sang phifdng
thCfc
sdn xudt theo chiiu sdu,
diia
tren cac Idi
the,
de tien nhanh ra bien, khai thac va
lam chii bien khdi cd the lam
Id bifdc
ciia

ca dan toe trong mot the gidi dang phat
trien nhanh, ma ngifdi Nhat da tiing nhin
nhan khdng phai "Sai mot ly, di mpt
ddm",
ma la "Sai mpt ly, di mpt ddi".
Vdi phifdng thiic phat trien hien nay, ve
thiic chat, nen kinh te Viet Nam dang di
theo eon difdng phat trien theo chieu rong.
Mot khi phifdng thiic phat trien theo chieu
rong tien den gidi han ciia nd, thi tdc do
phat trien bi giam
siit
nhanh va nen kinh
te se chiu nhieu tac dong tieu
ciic.
Neu
khdng nhan thiic difdc dieu nay de cd bien
phap dd'i phd kip thdi, 10 nam tdi, kinh te
Viet Nam se gap phai nhieu nan giai. Da
den
Iiic
kinh te Viet Nam phai
vUdn len
tam cao mdi de cd kha nang canh tranh
difdc vdi cac nifdc trong khu
viic
va tren
the gidi. Hifdng vao phat trien kinh te dat
nifdc mot
each

dn dinh va ben
vflng,
moi
bo,
nganh va tiing dia phifdng can xac
dinh difdc nhiing Idi the canh tranh, the
manh cua rieng minh. Lau nay, ci nifdc ta
cdn tdn tai mot
nghjch
ly la dia phifdng,
nganh va Bo nao ciing deu xay diing chien
QUAN Lt KINH
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NGHIEN
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lifdc
phat trien. Nhifng tren thiic te, do
chifa cd

tim
nhin xa ciing
nhif
thieu
nhiing
dii
bao ve phat trien khoa hoe &
cdng nghe, nen thudng mang tinh phan
tan, khdng gan ket vdi nhau vi muc tieu
phat trien chung cua ca qud'c gia. Den nay,
nhan
thUe
ve trinh do phat trien cdng
nghiep, cdng nghe, kha nang canh qud'c
gia ciia Viet Nam tren quy md
the
gidi va
khu vUc van dang cdn la bai toan nan giai
ddi vdi nen kinh te.
De chan hUng dat nUde theo hUdng dan
gilu,
nUdc manh, dat
dUde
muc tieu KT-
XH trong thien nien ky mdi thi nhiing ndi
dung ldn ciia phat trien kinh te
cin
phai
tap trung vao viec bien nUdc ta trd thanh:
Ciidng

qudc sdn xudt sdn pham nong
nghiep nhiet ddi cho the gidi; ciidng qudc
kinh te bien, vd
Id
ciidng qudc vi ngudn
nhdn
liic
cong nghe thdng tin (CNTT) co
ky ndng cao.
2.1.
Mpt ciidng qudc sdn xudt sdn
pham nong nghiep nhiet ddi
Trong the gidi ngay cang md rdng, tif
tiem nang va ldi the nhiet ddi, dUdc thien
nhien Uu dai ve tai nguyen sinh thai vdi
nhieu san pham mang tinh dac thii, Viet
Nam hoan toan cd the
liia
chon ndng
nghiep lam mue tieu de trd thanh mot
trong nhiing nUdc xuat khau ndng san
hang dau the gidi. Mac dau chi mdi gia
nhap thi trUdng the gidi trong khoang thdi
gian khdng dai, nhUng kim ngach xuat
kh^u
ndng lam thiiy san eua
nUde
ta da
lien tue gia tang. Gan day da dat 20 ty
USD/nam va neu tap trung phat trien

manh theo hudng nay, nhieu
dii
bao cho
ring,
Viet Nam cd the dat tren 40 ty
USD/nam trong mot thdi gian khdng xa.
Tiem nang xuat khau cd nhieu, nhiing
mat hang cd the vUdn len
din
dau the gidi
cd the la
liia
gao, thiiy san, ca phe, cao su,
rau qua, hat dieu va san pham gd.
Lua gao: Nhin tren ban dd the gidi, dd
dang nhan thay, Viet Nam da trd thanh
cUdng qud'c
lUdng
thiic thii hai. Vdi truyen
thd'ng van minh
liia nUde
cd lich sU va
kinh nghiem tif hang nghin nam, Viet
Nam hoan toan cd the xuat khau cdng
nghe trdng
liia
cho nhieu nUde tren the
gidi,
nhat la cac nUdc d chau Phi va My La
tinh. Trong dieu kien an ninh

lUdng
thiic
bi de doa, kha nang nay hoan toan hien
thiic,
bdi Viet Nam trdng
dUde liia
quanh
nam vdi nhieu gidng nang suat cao va thdi
gian sinh trUdng
ngin
(dUdi 100 ngay).
Liia
gao Viet Nam cd the la giai dap tdt de
giai quyet nan ddi, ddi khi kha trien mien
d nhieu nUde, dac biet la d chau Phi.
Cd phe: Sau Brazil, ea phe Viet Nam
dUdc ca the gidi biet den la mot cUdng
qud'c xuat khau. ThUdng hieu Ca phe
Viet ngay cang dUdc khang dinh d
ding
cap eao tren thi trUdng qud'c te. Hien nay,
ca phe Viet Nam da xuat khau den 40
nUdc va viing lanh thd.
Cao su: Cay cao su Hevea Brasiliensis
ngudn gdc tif
luu viic
sdng Amazon (Nam
My),
da cd mat d Viet Nam
tii

nam 1897;
den nay, dUde md rong trdng tren dia ban
ca nUdc. Theo hUdng phat trien da nganh,
nhim
sU dung triet de nguyen lieu
sin
cd,
gia tang
gii
tri san pham va nhiing ldi the
tiem nang; Tap doan Cdng nghiep Cao su
Viet Nam
dii
tinh den nam 2015 se dUa
dien tich cao su len 50 van ha. Hien nay,
cao su Viet Nam diing
thii
3 the' gidi, dang
cd nhieu hiia hen de md rong thi trUdng
tieu thu den nhieu
nUde
tren the gidi va
trong khu
viic.
Hat diiu: Viet Nam da vUdt qua An Do,
cUdng qud'c Dieu, de trd thanh qud'c gia
dan dau
the
gidi ve xuat khau. Chat
lUdng

nhan dieu Viet Nam eiing dUdc coi la sd' 1,
thdm ngon hdn
hin
nhan dieu An Do,
Brazil hay Tanzania. Thi trUdng Dieu
Viet Nam tap trung d mot so'
nUde,
trong
dd, Hoa Ky chiem 40%, Trung Qud'c 20%,
Chau Au 20%.
Hd tieu: La mot trong nhiing qud'c gia
san xuat hang
diu,
Theo Hiep hoi Hd tieu
Viet Nam
(VPA),
quy
1/2009
VN
da xuat
khau dUde 27.075 tan hat tieu vdi kim
ngach 65,9 trieu USD, cao nhat trong hdn
Stf29(1U12/2009)
QUAN
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PHAT
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GIAI DOAN 2010-2025
hai nam qua. Ve
khdi
lUdng,
xuat khau hd
tieu da tang 11.506 tan so vdi cung ky
2008.
Thuy sdn: Trong 10 nam vifa qua, xuat
khau thuy san cua Viet Nam cd bUdc phat
trien dly an tUdng. TU chd khdng cd ten,
den nay thuy san Viet Nam da diing vao
nhdm 10
nUde
cd gia tri kim ngach xuat
khau ldn nhat the gidi .

Lam sdn: Viet Nam da trd thanh mot
trong 5
nUde
dat kim ngach xuat khau
mat hang dd gd, tU 3 den 5 ty USD hang
nam.
Ngoai nhiing nong san dat kim ngach
xuat khau cao,
niicic
ta con co nhieu nong
san xuat khau khac phu hdp vdi nhiing
nUct
on
dcd
trong
miia
dong lanh
nhif
rau,
cu qua, che la cac mat hang dang phat
trien
vcd toe
do cao.
La mot
nUde
ndng nghiep nhiet ddi, vdi
hdn 71%) cU dan lam ndng nghiep; vdi ban
chat
cin
cu chiu khd va dUdc thien nhien

Uu dai, Viet Nam da hinh thanh dUdc
nhieu
.vung
kinh te sinh thai
tif
Tay
Nguyen den Ddng Bang sdng
Ciiu
Long,
Ddng Bang sdng Hdng va tdi day la Tay
Bae va vung ven bien Tuy nhien, nhin
chung san pham ndng nghiep lam ra
vin
la nguyen heu thd, gia tri gia tang thap,
chUa ed thUdng hieu manh va thieu
sUc
canh tranh vdi san pham cung loai cua
Thai Lan va Trung Qudc.
Van de quan trong anh hUdng den chat
lUdng
ndng san xuat khau la gid'ng, cdng
nghe sau thu hoach va che bie'n.
Ddi
vdi
Ilia
gao, tdn that sau thu hoach thUdng tif
9 den 17%, tham chi 20-30%; nghia
la
mat
khoang 3.000 ty ddng hang nam. Trong

san xuat rau qua, ca nUdc da cd tren
600.000 ha vdi san
lUdng
4-5 trieu
tan/nam nhifng nang
liic
che
bien chi
dat
chUng
2%). Do san pham khdng qua che
bien, tieu thu khdng kip
thdi,
gia thap nen
thu nhap giam
siit
tii 15 den 30%).
TU thiic trang hien nay, de cd the trd
thanh cUdng qud'c cung cap ndng san cho
the gidi thi khoa hoc va cdng nghe phai giii
vai trd trung tam. Chien
lUde
khoa hoc
cdng nghe ndng nghiep
cin
tap trung tao
nhUng
dot bien ve Gid'ng vd Cdng nghe
che
bien sau thu hoach. Dieu

naj'
chi cd the
lam tdt khi cd cd che chinh sach, che do
thich hdp nham thu
hiit
chuyen gia, nha
ndng hoc trong, ngoai nUdc va nhat la
khuyen khich cac doanh nghiep dau tU
cdng siic va tri tue vao linh
viic
nay.
2.2.
Trd thdnh ciidng qud'c ve kinh te
bien
La mot nUdc nhiet ddi gid
miia,
Viet
Nam cd bd bien dai hdn 3126 km, them luc
dia rong vdi hang ngan dao giau ngudn ldi
thuy hai san, dau md, khoang san, nguyen
lieu hydrat, mudi, Cimg vdi tai nguyen
bien dao la he thd'ng cang bien nUdc sau,
nhieu vinh va bai bien ndi tieng. Doe theo
bd bien chay dai cdn biet bao bai cat dep,
cd the xay diing thanh
nhUng
trung tam
du lich, nghi dUdng, cac resort, bai
tim
mang tam qud'c te. Tai nguyen va the

manh bien hien cd cho phep chiing ta
khang dinh, Viet Nam cd nhieu thuan ldi
de trd thanh mot trong nhiing qud'c gia
manh ve kinh te te bien.
Nhin vao ban
d.o
the gidi cd the thay,
neu cd mot con kenh dao, kieu kenh dao
Panama hay kenh Suy-e
nim
giiia Thai
Lan va Malaysia, thi dao
Phii
Qud'c cd the
thay the Singapo trd thanh Trung tam ldn
vdi nang
liic
nhU cang Amsterdam (Ha
Lan).
Khi dd, nUdc ta se trd thanh mot
trung tam trung chuyen vdi dung
lUdng
hang hoa vd cimg to ldn, Lich sii phat
trien
ciia
cac thanh phd' cang the gidi giiip
cho chiing ta nhin nhan, xet ve vi tri hang
hai thi khdng ndi nao td't hdn vinh Van
Phong
ciia

Viet Nam. Cac thanh
pho
cang
ndi
tieng the gidi nhU Chicago,
Amsterdam hay Osaka trong giai doan
dau deu la
nhUng
dau tau kinh te cua My,
Ha Lan va Nhat Ban. Ciing vdi
sii
trdi day
cua nen kinh te chau A, vdi vi tri cua
minh, nhieu ludng hang cd the se tii
Trung Qud'c, An Do hay Thai Lan,
OUAN LY KINH
TE
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NGHIEN CIJIJ
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DPI

Q^^jJ
Campuchia, Lao di qua Viet Nam de den
vdi the gidi va ngUdc lai. Day la cd hdi de
dich vu cang bien cd dUdc nhiing ngudn
thu to ldn. Vdi
sii
phat trien nhanh ehdng
ciia nganh cdng nghiep ddng
tiu,
chiing ta
tin rang, Viet Nam du sUc va cd the chiem
linh dUdc thi phan cao trong dich vu cang
bien, eiing nhU van tai bien.
Khoa hoc cdng nghe bien cua Viet Nam
hien cdn non tre, ed the ndi la sd khai; so'
lieu dieu tra ed ban chUa nhieu, thieu
ddng bd, tan man. Vi vay, can xay diing
nganh khoa hoc nay de cd hieu biet cd ban
ve dieu kien
tii
nhien, cap nhat dUdc
nhUng
hieu biet theo bien ddi khi hau.
Phat trien nganh khoa hoe nghien cUu
bien se gdp tieng ndi vao quy hoach khdng
gian cac vung duyen hai, can duyen, dac
biet la quy hoach he thd'ng cang bien sao
cho phu hdp vdi quy luat tU nhien. Trong
kinh te bien can
chii

trong xay diing va
phat trien cac nganh
chii
dao; can tap
trung vao cac khau nhU: Dieu tra khao
sat, tham dd tai nguyen bien va dai
dUdng; Khai thac va
che
bien hai san;
Tham dd va khai thac
diu
khi; Tham dd
va khai thac khoang san; Du lich bien;
Dich vu cang bien va khdng gian bien;
Cdng nghiep tau thuy va van tai bien.
Hoat dong KH&CN can hudng vao van
dung cdng nghe cao trong hang loat cac
hoat ddng tham dd va khai thac nhU: Cdng
nghe khai thac nang
lUdng
bien; Cdng
nghe tham dd va khai
thic
hai san xa bd;
Cdng nghe sinh vat bien, nghien
cUu
chii
yeu de tao ra cac gid'ng nudi trdng mdi Uu
viet, cac gidng ed tinh dot pha de day
manh qua trinh nudi trdng; Cdng nghe

khai thac cac loai
dUde
pham; nghien cUu
vai trd, tap tinh tinh
tii
nhien cua sinh vat
bien; tii sinh vat bien
riit
ra
nhUng
khang
khuan, chat ddc khing benh, khang khdi
u, ehdng gia hoa, tao nen
nhUng dUde
pham mdi va thiic pham dUdng sinh ed
chat
lUdng
cao;
Cic
cdng nghe tham dd
khai thac tai nguyen khoang san dly bien
ve dau khi, kim loai day bien; Cdng nghe
tdng hdp tai nguyen bien, trong dd can chu
y den cdng nghe lam nhat nUdc bien, cdng
nghe tach,
riit
cac nguyen td': K, Br, Li, U
tii nUdc bien. De tang cUdng kha nang
dii
bao ve mdi trUdng bien, de phdng thien

tai,
nang eao nang
liie
bao ve mdi trUdng
bien phai quan tam nhieu hdn
nUa
den
Cdng nghe tham dd mdi trUdng bien. Ddng
thdi vdi nhUng qua trinh nay,
cin
cd sU
diu
tu, phdi hdp, nghien cUu mot
each
toan dien de tao thanh sUc manh tdng
hdp,
ket hdp chat che ca qudc phdng vdi
khoa hoc cdng nghe, kinh te, chinh tri tren
bien. Qud'c phdng bien manh se la chd
diia
eho ba con ngU dan va cae hoat ddng kinh
te-xa hdi tren vung bien, dao cua dat nUdc.
Lich sii dUdng bien the gidi cho thay,
kinh
te
bien ludn la nganh miii nhon;
trong dd cang bien ed vai trd chu dao. Ndi
nao cd cang, ndi dd se la thanh phd' vdi
kinh
te

cdng nghiep va giao thUdng phat
trien. Mac du Viet Nam cd mot
so
cang
tim
cd khu
viic
va
the
gidi, nhUng tren
thiic te, nUdc ta van chUa cd ndi nao nao
tiep nhan dUdc tau trong tai 50.000DWT
hoac tau container sife chd 3000TEUs. Vdi
nhUng
cang hien cd, chung ta dang cdn lac
hau so vdi mot
sd
nUdc trong khu
viic.
Do
vay, xay diing va phat trien he thd'ng cang
bien qud'c gia viing manh se cd vai trd to
ldn va quyet dinh den sU phat trien
ciia
dat nUdc.
De dap
iing dUde
tdc do phat trien eao
trong qua trinh tien ra bien ldn,
eIn

phai
ndi rdng
tim
nhin quy hoach he thd'ng
cang bien Viet Nam. Tieu chi thdi gian de
quy hoach cho he thd'ng cang bien qud'c gia
khdng nen gidi han 20 nam, ma phai rdng
den 50 nam, hoac dai hdn
nUa,
nhim
tao
thuan ldi cho kinh te bien Viet Nam theo
kip va
phii
hdp vdi
sii
phat trien thdi dai.
Ngoai viec dang hinh thanh 5 cang con-
tainer cd quy md ddn tau container
6000TEUS cap ben vao nam 2009- 2010,
can tap trung day manh dau tU xay difng
cang Van Phong thanh cang trung chuyen
tam cd
the
gidi bao gdm ea cang container,
cang tdng hdp, cang chuyen tai nhien lieu.
SA 29(11*12/2009)
OUAN LY KINH
TE
[TOI

NGHIEN Cljfl)
-
TRAP DPI
xu
THf TOAN CAU VA GIAI
PHAP PHAT
TRif
N
DAT
NL/OC
GIAI DOAN 2010-2025
Nghi quyet ve "Chien
lUdc
bien Viet Nam
den nam 2020" cua
BCHTU"
Dang lan thif 4
khoa X da xac
dinh
"NUdc ta phdi trd thdnh
qudc gia manh ve bien,
Idm gidu tii
bien,
tren cd sd phdt huy mpi tiim ndng tii bien,
phdt trien todn dien cdc ngdnh nghi bien vdi
cd cdu phong phu, hien dqi, tao ra tdc dp
phdt trim nhanh, bin vUng, hieu qud cao vdi
tdm nhin ddi han". Dinh hUdng ehien
lUde
ddng thdi cung la quan diem

chi
dao ddi vdi
sU nghiep phat trien kinh te bien Viet Nam
la: "Xdy diing vd phdt trien todn dien cdc
linh viic
kinh te, xd hpi, khoa hpc&cong
nghe, tdng ciidng cdng cd qudc phbng, an
ninh,
Idm
cho ddt niidc gidu manh tii bien,
bdo ve moi triidng bien. Phdn ddu den ndm
2020, kinh te'tren bien vd ven bien dong gop
khodng
53-55%
tdng GDP cda cd niidc ".
(Dang CSVN 2007).
Nhan manh noi dung
eiia
dinh hUdng
phat trien tren day, nhieu nha phan tich eho
ring,
neu "Phdt trien niidc ta thdnh ciidng
qudc nong nghiep vd ciidng qudc kinh te bien
cua the gidi" thi moi van de ve phat trien dat
nUdc deu da tap trung vao khu
viic
chiem
hdn 80% dan sd ca nUde vdi trong sd ldn la
ndng dan. Neu lam tdt 2 ndi dung nay,
chiing ta se giai quyet cd ban van de an sinh

xa hoi, giai quyet dUde ca 3 van de ldn, mang
tinh sd'ng cdn ma toan the gidi dang het
sife
quan tam, dd la: An ninh liidng thiic; An
ninh ndng lupng vd An ninh moi triidng.
Dam bao
dUde
nhiing van de an ninh neu
tren, eiing la da giai quyet dUdc
nhUng
muc
tieu neu trong chien
lUdc
phat trien ben
viing trong nhiing thap ky tdi cua qud'c gia.
2.3.
Trd thdnh ciidng qudc nhdn
liic
cong
nghe thdng tin (CNTT) cd ky ndng cao.
Trong
tim
nhin dai han den nam 2020,
cdng nghe thdng tin
dUde
xac dinh la linh
viic
ndng cdt de chuyen ddi cd eau kinh te-
xa hdi, dUa dat nUde trd thanh qud'c gia
tien tien ve phat trien kinh te tri thifc va

xa hdi thdng tin. Thiic te phat trien KT-
XH ciing eho thay,
nUde
ta dang cd cd hdi
de phat trien nganh cdng nghe nay. Viet
Nam diing
thU
10 trong 50 nUdc cd sife thu
hiit
ldn nhat dau tU nUdc ngoai vao cdng
nghe thdng tin. Ciing vdi tang
trUcing
kinh
te,
sii
gia tang nhanh chdng cac doanh
nghiep CNTT va viin thdng ldn
mcl
ra
nhieu cd hdi mdi. Vdi quyet dinh dau tU
gan 10 ty USD vao thiet ke, san xuat vi
mach, may tinh, dien thoai di dong, thiet
bi viin thdng cua 5 cdng ty ldn (Intel,
Renesas, Campal, Samsung va Foxcon) de
den nam 2012 dat doanh thu 30 ty USD
(ehiem 1/3 GDP cua Viet Nam hien nay)
thi viec lam trong cdng nghe thdng tin vd
ciing to ldn, nhUng thieu hut nghiem
trong cua cac cdng ty hang dau nay lai la
ngudn nhan

liic
cd ky nang lanh nghe.
Viec md rdng dau tU cua cac cdng ty CNTT
xuyen qud'c gia khien nhu eau nhan
liic
cd
trinh do chuyen nghiep cao d
nUde
sd tai
lai cang trd nen bife
xiic;
day la
diu
ra
quan trong eua viec dao tao
lao
dong cdng
nghe thdng tin.
La nganh cd ham
lUdng
chat xam ket
tinh ldn, lao ddng cdng nghe thdng tin tao
nang suat lao ddng cao gap nhieu lln so
vdi nhieu nganh kinh te khac. Tuy nhien,
neu
so'
lUdng
ngUdi lam trong nganh nay it
thi khdng cd
tie

dung nhU ky vong. Vdi
lan sdng dau tU nUdc ngoai, nhieu tap
doan hang
diu
the gidi
Ao
vao
nUde
ta, tao
thdi cd phat trien, nhUng mot khi thieu
lao dong chat
lUdng
thi thdi cd ciing se qua
di.
Chinh vi le nay, quyet tam ciia Chinh
phu Viet Nam la phai td chifc dao tao de
cd 1 trieu lao dong ky nang lam viec trong
linh vUc nay.
Thue hien chUdng trinh phat trien va dao
tao ky nang cdng nghe thdng tin theo tieu
chuan Nhat Ban, nhieu trUdng Dai hoc
trong nUdc da phd'i hdp dao tao va td chiic
nhiing ky thi thi chung lay chifng
chi
cdng
nghe thdng tin Nhat Ban. Sd' lieu thd'ng ke
tii nam 2005 den 2008 cho thay, sd'ngUdi dat
tieu chuan cua Viet Nam dat
15,8%;
rieng

nam 2008 con so' nay len 17,8% trong khi
Nhat Ban la
10,8%.
Thiic te nay giiip chiing
ta cd cd sd de dat niem tin vao ldp tre, vdi td
chat Viet Nam, chae chan ho se cd dUdc
nhiing dot pha trong tiep thu tien bo
OUAN LY KINH
TE
Sa29(11f12/2Q09)
XU THf
TOAN CAU
VA
GIAI
PHAP
PHAT
TRif
N
DAT
NI/6C
GIAI
DOAN
2010-2025
NGHIEN
ClJfU
-
TRAP DPI
VIUl
KH&CN,
de tao

ngudn nhan
liie
dap
iing
nhu
clu
trong nUdc
va eho ca ben
ngoai.
Trong
xu the
phat trien cdng nghe
thdng
tin
toan
clu, elc
nUde phat trien
deu tham
hut lao
dong chat
lUdng
cao.
Vao
nam 2008, trong
so' 14,8
trieu ngUdi
thi
CNTT
d
Nhat

Ban
ehi
cd 1, 6
trieu ngUdi
du tieu chuan (chiem 10,8%), budc
cae
ddanh nghiep Nhat
da
phai tuyen dung
vdi
sd'
lUdng
ldn tii
nUde ngdai. Thdi gian
qua, ngudn nhan
liic
CNTT nUde
ta
lien
tue tang trudng manh
me.
Ngudn thd'ng
ke
cho
thay, Viet
Nam ed
tren
35
ngan
lao

dong triic tiep trong doanh nghiep phan
mem, khoang
hdn 20
ngan
lam
viec trong
doanh nghiep
ndi
dung
so' va
dich
vu
CNTT;
gin
100
ngan
lao
ddng trong
elc
doanh nghiep dien
tii,
phln ciing
may
tinh
va Udc
tinh
cd
khoang
90
ngan nhan

liie
chuyen trach CNTT trong
cae td
chUe,
doanh nghiep thude nhiing nganh khac.
Ca
nUde
hien
cd 13
trUdng
DH,
Vien
Nghien
ciiu
dao tao sau dai hoc ve
CNTT;
230 trifdng
dai hoe va cao
dang
ed dao tao
ve CNTT, binh quan sd' sinh vien
mdi nam
dao
tao
18.000 ngUdi,
88
trUdng
cd dao tao
ve CNTT
bae

trung
cap
chuyen nghiep;
eiing nhieu chUdng trinh
dao tao
qud'c
te
(Nien giam CNTT Viet
Nam
2008). CNTT
Viet
Nam dat
dUdc
nhUng
ket qua
dang
ghi nhan, nhUng
so vdi
Nhat
Ban, Han
Qud'c, Singapore, Malaysia, Trung Qudc,
An Dp
thi van
dang
cdn mot
khoang each
rat
xa. Vi du, vdi
doanh
sd

400-500 trieu
USD/nam, nganh CNTT
cua
Viet
Nam
cdn thap thua
An Do
tren
80 lan. Mac
dii
Viet
Nam
chUa
the
nghi
tdi
viec "dudi
kip"
elc cUdng qud'c hien
nay ve
CNTT trong
mot tUdng
lai
gin,
tuy
nhien, Viet
Nam
dang
cd cd hdi ldn de
phdt trien ngdnh

ndy.
Vdi nhip
dd
tang trUdng
cad va sU gia
tang nhanh chdng
dau tU
nUde ngoai
vao
linh viic
CNTT
va
viin thdng, Viet
Nam
dang
ddi hdi mot so'
lUdng
ldn
nhan
liic
ed
tinh chuyen nghiep
rat
cao.
Mae du
dUdc
coi
la
mot
diem ngam

va la dia
diem
den
ciia
nhieu doanh nghiep
nUde
ngoai nhUng Viet
Nam hien dang mang nghjch
ly
trong
thi
trUdng
lao
ddng CNTT;
dd la
thifa
lao
dong
gian
ddn,
nhUng
lai
ludn thieu ngudn nhan
liic
lam
dUde viec,
dac
biet
la lao
ddng

cd tay
nghe
vdi
chat
lUdng
cao. Ngoai nhiing nganh
nghe quen thude dang thieu
lao
dong, hien
cd nhieu nganh nghe CNTT
mdi, rat
thieu
nhan
liie
nhU
tiep
thi,
viet sach
ky
thuat,
kiem
tra
chinh sifa
phan
mem,
giao dich
dam phan dien
tii,
giao dieh thUdng
mai-

thanh
toin
dien
tii
v.v. Thiic
te nay
dang
tao
sUc
ep
manh
me doi vdi cae ed sd dao tao
eiing
nhU cae nha
quan
ly
giao
due va dao
tao.
Renesas
la mot
trong
nhUng
cdng
ty
hang
diu
the
gidi eiia Nhat
Ban,

chuyen
ve
thiet
ke, san
xuat
vi
mach,
nam
2007
da
trien khai
xay
diing Trung
tam
thiet
ke tai
TP.HCM,
cin
tuyen khoang
1.000 ky sU ve
thiet
ke ban dan.
NhUng trong sudt
2 nam
tim kiem khoang
500 ky sU cho
giai doan
dau, cdng
ty nay chi
tuyen dUde

60
ngUdi
Cdn Cdng
ty
Intel eiia My,
sau khi
diu
tU
dii
an
1 ty USD tai
TP.HCM,
eIn
tuyen dung
khoang
1.000 ky sU
thude
elc
linh
viic
dien,
dien
tii,
CNTT,
tii
ddng
hoa va den nam
2011,
ngudn
nhin liie

eua
Intel
can
tuyen
se
tiep
tue
tang
eao.
NhUng
khi
kiem
tra
gin
2.000 sinh vien
nam
cudi
thi
chi
ed 90
sinh
vien
dat yeu cau
tuyen dung.
Hien
nay, nhu eau
thiic
te ve
nhan
liie

CNTT d Viet
Nam da
vUdt
qui
kha
nang
dap
Ung eiia
he
thd'ng
dao tao.
Ngudn nhan
liie
CNTT Viet
Nam
ehUa
dap Ung
dUdc
yeu clu
phat trien
eua
nganh, chUa
dap
iing dUde
nhu
clu xa hdi ca ve
sd'
lUdng
va
chat

lUdng.
Chat
lUdng
ngudn nhan
life
thap khong
chi
lam gidm ndng
liic
canh tranh
cua
ngdnh
CNTT Viet
Nam, md cbn gdy
lang
phi rdt
ldn
cd vi
thdi gian
vd
tiin
ciia.
Cho du ed ldi
the'
chi phi
thap, nhUng
neu
khdng
cd lao
ddng

ky
nang
va tri
thiic
phii
hdp, thi se
khdng
cd gia tri
dd'i
vdi nha
diu
tU va
chiing
ta
se mat di cd hdi thu hut dau tU
nUde ngoai
de tang
tde
phat trien trong
20 nam tdi.
Xac dinh dUde
tim
quan trong ciia
Cdng nghe thdng
tin, chi thi
58CT/TW
"Day manh
j2ng
dung
vd

phdt trien CNTT
phuc
vu
sii
nghiep CNH-HDH'
eua Bd
SA'29(11+12/2009)
OUAN
Lt
KINH
TE
VTB
NGHIEN
Cljnj
-
TRAP
DPI
xu
THf
TOAN
CAU
VA
GIAI
PHAP PHAT
TRI^N
DAT
NUOC
GIAI
DOAN
2010-2025

Chinh tri Dang Cdng san Viet Nam da
chi
ro " Phdt trien ngudn nhdn
liic
cho cdng
nghe thong tin
Id
yeu to' then chdt, cd y
nghia quyet dinh ddi vdi viec iing dung vd
phdt trien
CNTT.
Tii
nhUng
chu trUdng
cua Dang, Quy hoach phat trien ngudn
nhan
lUc
CNTT Viet Nam den nam 2020
dUdc xay diing, Thii tUdng Chinh phu da
phe duyet Ke hoach tdng the phdt trien
nguon nhdn
liic
cong nghe thong tin den
ndm 2015 vd dinh hiidng den 2020. Quyet
dinh cua Chinh phu tao bUdc dot
phi
trong xa hoi hoa dao tao nhan
liic;
day
ciing la giai phap kha thi de thu

hiit
hieu
qua cac doanh nghiep, tap doan CNTT
nUdc ngoai cd y dinh dau tU tham gia vao
td
chUe
dao tao hoac lien ket dao tao d Viet
Nam. Vdi quyet dinh nay, cd the hieu day
la chien
lUde
cua Chinh phu de bien Viet
Nam thanh mot cUdng qud'c ve CNTT
trong mot tUdng lai khdng xa (Dang
CSVN 2000; Thu tudng Chinh phu 2009).
Quyet dinh cua Chinh phu dinh
rd
quan diem, muc tieu, cac nhiem vu va giai
phap
phit
trien ngudn nhan
liic
CNTT
Viet Nam den 2020 vdi nhieu nhiem vu cu
the bao gdm: Phat trien doi ngu dang vien,
giao vien cdng nghe thdng tin; Phat trien
ddi ngii nghien
ciiu
ve cdng nghe thdng
tin; Xay diing va phat trien ddi ngii giam
ddc cdng nghe thdng tin trong cac cd quan

nha nUde; Dao tao eae tai nang ve cdng
nghe thdng tin; Dao tao nhan
liic
trinh do
cao ve cdng nghe thdng tin; Dao tao nghe
ve cdng nghe thdng tin; Phat trien nhan
liic
cdng nghe thdng tin trong linh
viic
an
ninh-qud'c phdng; Dao tao va bdi dUdng
kien thifc cdng nghe thdng tin cho can bd,
cdng chiie, vien chifc; Day tin hoc cho sinh
vien, hoc sinh cac cap; Phd cap tin hoc cho
nhan dan
De bien Viet Nam thanh mot cudng
qud'c ve nhan
liic
CNTT vao nam 2020,
Viet Nam se phai ddng thdi tien hanh hai
muc tieu: Ldy phdt trien ngudn nhdn
liic
CNTT
CO
trinh dp vd chdt liicfng cao lam
khdu dot phd vd Ldy nhanh chdng
Idm
chu thi triidng trong niidc de tiing
biidc
viing chdc md rdng sang thi triidng khu

viic
vd todn cdu
Idm
khdu quyet dinh, tien
tdi "xudt khdu" ngudn nhdn
liic
cdng nghe
thdng tin chdt liicfng cao vdo ndm 2020.
Neu lam dUdc nhU vay, ke tii nam 2015,
Viet Nam se cd kha nang trd thanh mot
trong 70 nUdc phat trien CNTT hang
diu
the gidi. Trong Tam nhin den nam 2020,
CNTT se la linh vUe ndng cd't de Viet Nam
chuyen ddi cd cau kinh te - xa hdi, trd
thanh nUdc tien tien ve phat trien kinh te
tri thUe va xa hdi thdng tin
De thiic hien chien
lUdc
nay,
cic
nganh,
cac cap can phai nang cao nhan thiic ve
vai trd ciia CNTT; hoan thien cd che,
chinh sach, luat phap; thiic hien tdt elc
chien
lUdc
va quy hoach; tang cUdng td
chiic bd may quan ly ciia Nha
nUde;

ddi
mdi md hinh doanh nghiep; md rdng va
phat trien thi trUdng CNTT. De dam bad
phat trien ngudn nhan
lUc
CNTT, dap ifng
nhu cau trong nUdc va tien tdi xuat khau,
cin
cd cae bien phap, giai phap manh,
kem theo viec cho phep ap dung mot
sd
ed
che chinh sach dac
thii
trong dao tao
ngudn nhan
liic,
nhat la dao tao he dai hoc
va cao dang CNTT. Nham huy ddng
tdi
da
cae ngudn
liic
nha nUdc, doanh nghiep va
xa hoi
diu
tU vao linh
viie
nay, cd che
chinh sach cdi md, thdng thoang hdn trong

viec thanh lap cac trUdng dao tao nhan
life
CNTT dang la ddi hdi can thiet.
3.
Ctf
sd cho thanh cong va hy vong
Xay diing dat nUde theo hudng "Ddn
gidu niidc manh" la van de mang tinh
chien
lUdc
dd'i vdi
sii
phat trien Viet Nam
trong tUdng lai. Thiet
nghi,
dieu quan
trpng khi thiic hien hudng di nay la phai
nhan rd ldi the so sanh
giUa
nUde ta vdi
cac nude khu vUc va tren the gidi trong
tim
nhin dai han, khdng chi 5-10 nam, ma
la 50 nam, tham chi tdi hang the ky.
Chiing ta tien hanh cdng nghiep hoa va
hien dai hoa dat nudc cimg vdi trien khai
tren quy md qud'c gia hang loat cac khu
cdng nghiep tap trung, khu dd thi, khu che
xuat. Thiic hien cdng cuoc nay, nhat thiet
OUAN LY KINH

T£
So29(1U12/2009)
xu
THf
TOAN CAU VA
GIAI
PHAP
PHAT
TRif
N
DAT
NUdC
GIAI DOAN
2010-2025
NGHIEN
CIJ^
-
TRAP
DPI
Q^y
phai tien hanh chuyen ddi ca ve phong
each
lanh dao, tU duy, ldi sd'ng va nghe
nghiep cho dai bd phan dan eU vdi hang
chuc trieu ngUdi dang sinh sd'ng d cac
vung ndng nghiep, ndng thdn.
Gia nhap WTO, ngudn nhan
lUe
Viet
Nam la ldi the khd cd

nUde
nao so
sinh
dUde. Trong mot dat nUdc tren 86 trieu
dan, 63% thuoc do tudi 30-40; cho du vdi
xuat phat diem thap, 70% dan sd' thude
linh
viic
ndng nghiep, nhUng thay vao dd,
ngUdi Viet lai rat can
cU,
thdng minh, chiu
khd va ludn sang tao. Ngoai
nhUng
ndi
dung phat trien kinh te da neu, neu cd
chinh sach ky thuat va cdng nghiep song
hanh diing
din
va hdp ly, chiing ta hoan
toan cd the
sif
dung cd hieu qua cae ngudn
lUe
trong nUdc, bien nhiing kha nang tiem
tang thanh vdn hien thiic de day nhanh
tdc do chuyen dieh kinh te Viet Nam, ddng
thdi gdp phln giai quyet mot each hieu
qua Chinh sach Nong nghiep, Nong thon
vd Nong ddn (Tam Ndng).

De giai quyet cdng an viec lam va giam
siic ep xa hoi d khu
viic
ndng thdn,
cin
tap
trung phat trien manh manh me cdng
nghe tham dung lao ddng, nhat la trong
cac nganh cdng nghiep phu trd, cdng
nghiep che bien va lang nghe truyen
thd'ng, de san xuat cae loai hang hoa tieu
dimg va xuat khau nham thu hdi vdn
nhanh va tao ra tinh phong
phii
cho thi
trUdng hang hoa trong
nUde
tim kiem va
tien tdi dn dinh thi trUdng ngoai nUde vdi
nhiing mat hang xuat khau
chii liic
cd
siic
canh tranh cao.
Cung vdi tham dung lao ddng, can
liu
tien phdt trien cong nghe thdm dung tdi
nguyen trong nhiing ngdnh cong nghiep
then chdt de chuan bi bUdc vao san xuat
nhUng

mat hang tieu dimg cao cap, cd:
chat
lUdng
eao, phu hdp vdi yeu clu ve
chat
lUdng eiia
thi trUdng
the
gidi.
Mat khac, cung can phdt trien manh
dich vu du lich thdm dung lao dpng tai cac
khu cdng nghiep va
nhUng
dia phUdng cd
cae khu vui chdi, giai tri, an dUdng, nghi
mat, resort, bai bien, khu du lich, danh
thing ciia dat nUdcv.v.
Trong phat trien cdng nghiep theo
hudng hien dai,
cin
Uu tien phat trien
nhUng
nganh cdng nghiep hien dai, cd
tinh dot pha; song di len
tU
mdt ddt niidc
nong nghiep, thi viec xdy dUng mdt chien
luqc cong nghiep co tinh nhi nguyen hqp
ly, lqi
CO

y nghia thuc ddy
sii
thdnh cong
cda qud trinh cong nghiep hod vd hien dqi
hod ddt nUdc (loai cdng nghe thich hdp,
bae
thap va trung binh de giai quyet cdng
an viec lam chd hdn 70% lao ddng ndng
nghiep, giam thieu ap
liie
xa hdi; tai trang
bi ky thuat va lam hdi sinh cac nganh
cdng nghiep xe chieu, nhU khai khoang,
md, hoa chat, luyen kim, phat trien theo
cac giai doan cu the) cung cdn duqc tinh
den trong giai doan tii nay den ndm 2020.
Mae du cdn nhieu khd khan trUde
mit,
nhUng thuan ldi va cd hoi ed nhieu dd la:
Moi trudng chinh tri xd hpi dn dinh; Tiim
ndng tdng trUdng kinh te cao; Thi trUdng
npi dia co nhu cdu da dang; Nguon von
trong ddn cho ddu tU cbn nhiiu. Trong bd'i
canh suy giam kinh
tetoan
clu, gia vat tU
nguyen lieu, may mdc, thiet bi
xiid'ng
thap,
nhu eau phat trien dat nUdc

cin
nhieu. Mat
khic,
cac nha
diu
tU va tai trd
nUde
ngoai van tin tUdng vao trien vong
phat trien cua Viet Nam,
vin
coi Viet
Nam la diem den an toan va hap
din.
Nhiing dieu nay cho phep chiing ta cd cd
sd de can nhac
liia
chon
nhim
phat huy
nhiing ldi the chien
lUdc
trong
tii
cd eau
nen kinh te.
Vdi tam nhin Ddi mdi, thdng qua
nhUng
chUdng trinh hanh dong tap trung vao
khai thac
nhUng

ldi the vifa mang tinh lau
dai vifa cd tinh kha thi de thiic hien mue
tieu dan gilu nUdc manh; chung ta cd
nhieu hy vpng va tin tUdng Viet Nam cd
the hoa nhap va
bit
kip nhip dp phat trien
ciia
nen kinh te khu
viic
va the gidi trong
Thien nien ky mdi.
SA29(1U12/2009)
QUAN
Lt
KINH
Tl
MB
NGHIEN Cl/U
-
TRAP
DPI
xu
THf
TOAN CAU VA
GIAI
PHAP PHAT
TRif
N
DAT

NLTOC
GIAI
DOAN
2010-2025
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
1
Dang Cong
san
Viet
Nam, Ddy
manh
Ung
dung
vd
phdt trien Cong nghe thong
tin
phuc
vu
sii
nghiep CNH-HDH,
Chi
thi
58.CT/TW,
Ha Noi, 17/10/2000.
2
Dang Cong
san
Viet Nam,
Vdn
kien

Hpi
nghi
Tif
TV
khoa
X, Ha
Noi, 2007.
3
Kanayo Nwanze(2009), Phat bieu
tai Hoi
nghi
Bo
trUcing
Nong nghiep
G8,
thang
4/2009, FIDA thang 5/2009.
''
Quy
Tien
te The
gidi IMF(2009), Trien vpng
kinh
te the
gidi,
tai
lieu
Hoi
nghi thifdng nien
IMF,

Hoa
Ky, thang
4 nam
2009.
RAND Corporation (2009),
"Du
bao ve
cuoc
each mang cong nghe toan
cau den
nam 2020"
Dang tren trang
web:
www.Vista.gov.vn,
ngay
26
thang
9 nam
2009.
Thanh
PhUdng,
Thanh
Y
(2009),
"De co
nhiing chien thing
30
thang
tu
vang

doi
trong
xay
dUng
dat
nUdc",
Tap chi
Thdng
tin
& Phdt trien, thang 4/2009.
Thii
tudng Chi'nh phii,
Ke
hoach tdng
the
phat trien nguon nhan
lUc
Cong nghe thong
tin
den nam 2015 va
dinh
hudng
den nam
2020,
Quyet dinh 698/QD-TTg,
Ha Noi,
01/6/2009.
QUAN
Lt
KINH it

SA29nU12/2009)