Các yếu tố ảnh hưởng tới giảm nghèo bền vững ở tỉnh khánh hòa

CAC YEU TO ANH Hl/dNG DEN GIAM NGHEO BEN VUTVG
d TINH KHANH HOA
Nguyen Dinh Hoa
Nguyen Thi Anh Tuyet
Tdm tdt: Ngheo khong chi theo cdch tiep can tien te md con Id phi tiin ti, vdn di ddt ra Id xdc dinh
cdc nhdn td dnh hudng nhdm cd cdc chinh sdch can thiep. Bdi nghien cihi nhdm muc tiiu xdc dinh
vd phdn tich cde nhdn to tdc dgng den khd ndng gidm ngheo cua ho gia dinh a tinh Khdnh Hoa Tic
cdch tiep can sinh ke ben vung, ket qud nghien ciru cho thdy, doi vai tinh Khdnh Hoa, von con
ngu&i Id nhdn to quan trong nhdt lam tdng khd ndng gidm ngheo, do do cdc chinh sdch cdn tdp
trung vdo viec ndng cao von con nguai.
Tir khda: Sinh ke ben vCmg; gidm ngheo ben vung; ngheo da chieu; tinh Khdnh Hoa

Dat van de
Giam ngheo la mdi quan tam ciia cac qudc
gia tren the gidi va Viet Nam khdng phai la
ngoai le. Tren the gidi khdng cd mdt thudc do
chung bdi moi qudc gia cd dieu kien va dac
trung rieng hoac do muc tieu phat trien ludn
thay ddi theo thdi gian. Cbo den nay, cd nhieu
quan diem, each tiep can va phircmg phap do
ludng ngheo ddi.
Cling vdi su phat trien kinh te - xa bdi, ddi
sdng ciia ngudi dan tinh Khanh Hda da co sy
cai thien dang ke, ty le hp ngheo cd xu budng
giam xudng. Tuy nhien, sd bd ngheo tren dia
ban tinb Khanh Hda van cdn tuong ddi cao va
toe dp giam ngheo tren dia ban tinh Khanh
Hda cd xu hudng cham lai, viec giam ngheo
khong cd su dong deu giiia cac viing tren dia
ban tinb. Nhieu hd gia dinh d tinh Khanh Hda
dii thoat ngheo nhung van d trong tinh trang

mong manh, thieu ben viing va cd the tai
ngheo neu gap cac tac ddng bat lgi tir ben
ngoai.

Nhiem vu giam ngheo ngay cang khd khan
hem, tdn kem nhieu ban do ben canh nhiing
thach thiic truyen thdng con xuat hien nhiing
thach thirc mdi, trong khi dd cac ngudn luc
giam ngheo ngay cang giam. Chinh vi vay,
viec phan tich va danh gia cac nhan td anh
hudng tdi giam ngheo y nghia quan trpng
nham lam can cii cho viec ap dung cac chinh
sach giam ngheo mdt each bieu qua.
1. Cff sd ly thuyet va phugng phap
nghien ciiu
1.1. Cff s&ly thuyit
Trong thap nien 1970, ngheo dugc quan
niem la su "thieu but" so vdi mpt muc sdng
nhat dinh va su thieu hut thudng xem xet ve
vat chit nham dap img nhu cau ca ban ctia con
ngudi. Ngay nay, ngheo ddi khdng chi don
thuin la thieu thon ve cac dieu kien vat chat
ma dupe xem xet d pham vi rdng ban vdi cac
thieu thdn tren nhieu phuang dien, ndi each
khac la ngheo da chieu. Chuang trinh phat
trien lien hgp qudc (UNDP), Bao cao phat
trien con ngudi toan cau nam 2010 (U"NDP,

P H A T T R I E N B E N VU'NG V U N G Q U Y E N 9, so 2 (6/2019)

121


NGHIEN CU'U THLfC NGHlEM - KINH NGHlEM

2010) va trudc do la Bao cao phat trien con
ngudi nam 1997 (UNDP, 1997), xem xet
ngheo tu khia canh ve phat trien con ngudi,
tire la ngheo da chieu bao gdm ngheo ve tien te
va ngheo phi tien te (tiep can cac dich vu xa
hpi CO ban nhu y te, giao due). Nghien cim cua
Ngan bang Thi gidi - WB (2012) xem xet
ngheo la su thieu thdn tdi miic khdng the chap
nhan dugc trong ddi sdng; cudc sdng dugc the
hien d phiic lgi cua con ngudi vdi chi phi cho
cac nhu cau ca ban (tieu dimg thyc pham; cac
mat hang phi luang thyc vdi cac do ditng thiet
yen; giao due; y te, dich vu cdng cdng nhu
dien, nudc, ve sinh va thu gom rac). Nhu vay,
ngheo ddi thudng dupe quan niem la sy thilu
hyt ve vat chat, phi vat chat so vdi mdt miic
sdng nhat djnh.
Sinh ke ben viing de cap den kha nang
phuc hdi ddng thdi duy tri dugc va lam tang
nang lyc ciing nhu tai chinh cua ca nhan, hp
gia dinh sd hiiu sinh ke va khdng lam anh

hudng den ca hdi tiep can, sd hiru den cac
ngudn luc ciia cac ca nhan, hd gia dinh khac.
Cac ngudn vdn sinh ke ben vung bao gdm:

vdn tu nhien, vdn vat chat, vdn eon ngudi, v6n
tai chinh va vdn xa hdi (DFID, 2001). Ca
nhan, hp sd hiin cang nhieu cac ngudn von (ca
ve sd lugng va chat lugng) se cd kha nang tao
ra mdt sinh ke vdi ket qua sinh ke tdt hon. Cac
ngudn vdn sinh ke nay xuat phat tir chinh kha
nang ben trong cua ca nhan, hp gia dinh nhung
ciing chju anb hudng Idn tir mdi trudng ben
ngoai (vi dy cac the che, chinh sach, cac luat le
qui dinh each thiic van hanh). Su ket hgp cac
yeu td tren tao ra mpt chien luge sinh ke quyet
dinb ket qua dau ra ciia sinh ke. Nhu vay, each
tiep can sinh ke ben vung khdng chi dan gian
de cap den viec sd hiiu tai san, ngudn lyc ma
cdn de cap den each thiic duy tri, nang lyc san
sinh ra cac tai san mdt each ben viing, tang
kha nang ung phd va giam thieu rui ro cua con
ngudi trong mpi hoan eanh.

Hinh 1: KHUNG SINH KE BEN VUNG THEO CACH TIEP CAN CUA DFID
TAI SAN KINH TE

K £ T QUA
SINHlrf:

cau va tien tiinh
thvc hien
I'm I'o

^

Cff cau:

-i-Cac cii s6c
+Cac
khuyiih
hiitmg
+Tiiiii tlioi

AnhhiTong
vii kha naiig
tiep can
P

F

Qua tiinh

Cac cap
tien hanh:
chinli quyen - Liiat le
Dem VI
- Chinh sach
- Van hoa
- The che to
chiic

<^
CHIEN
LU"CSC

SINHK£

^=^

- Tang tfaii nhap
- Tang su on
dmh
- Giam mi ro
- Nang cao an
toan lirong
thuc
- Sir dung ben
vfmg hem cac
ngiton ten tu
nhien

Ki hieu
H=Ng«6ii luc con nguoi

F=>.Hu6n luc tai chinli

N=X2u6n luc tu iiliieu

P^Xguon luc vat chat

S=N2ii6n luc xa hoi

Nguon: DFID (2001).

122

PHAT TRIEN BfeN VCfNG V O N G Q U Y S N 9, S6 2 (6/2019)


Nguy§n Binh H6a - Nguyen Thi Anh Tuyet

Cac yen to anh h i r ^ g . . .

Hinh 2: TIEP CAN NGHEO DA CHIEU THEO C A c NGUON VON SINH KE BEN V L T N G
Tai san san xuat

Tai sail tieu dirng

Tai san phtac \"ii di lai

Co so ha tang ca ban

I
\ ' d u vat chat
Chat lugng the chat

Tham eia cac hoat ddng xa hpi

I
So lupna

Von coil ugiroi

Von xa hoi

Chat liTons tri tue

*

Tiep can thong tiu

Vou tai chinh

Vou hr nhien

1
Cac n2u6n lgi ti? tir nhien

Cac klioan tu co

Von vay

Ngudn: Nhom tde gid (2019).
Khung pban tich sinh ke ben viing cho thay
cac loai vdn (vdn ty nhien, vdn vat chat, vdn
tai chinh, vdn con ngudi, vdn xa hdi) la nhiing
nguon lyc anh hudng tdi sinh ke ben viing ciia
ngudi ngheo. Cho den nay da cd kha nhieu
nghien ciiu van dung each tiep can sinh ke ben
vCrng de danh gia sinh ke ben viing va xac dmh
cac yeu td anh hudng tdi ngheo ddi, giam
ngheo.
Nguyen Viet Anh va Tran Thi Thu Thuy
(2010) sii dung ham san xuat Cobb - Douglas
de phan tich cac nhan td tac ddng den thu nhap

cua hd. K6t qua nghien ciin cbi ra rang trinh
dp hpc van, tudi, lao ddng ndng nghiep, lugng
vdn vay, chi phi dau vao, dien tich canh tac va
thdi ban cho vay cd tac ddng ciing chieu vdi
thu nhap ciia ndng hp. Chu Thi Kim Loan va
Nguyin Van Hudng (2015) nghien cicu anb
hudng cua ngudn luc den thu nhap ciia ndng
hg. Cac tac gia sii dung 3 loai vdn de nghien

cim: vdn con ngudi (sd lugng va trinh dp hpc
van ciia lao ddng), vdn tai chinh (miic vdn
phyc vu cho san xuat kinh doanb); vdn tu
nhien (qui md dat dai).
Theo Do Thien Kinh va cdng su (2001),
cac nhan td anh hudng tdi ddi ngheo cua bd
gia dinh bao gdm: tai san (thu nhap ciia hd gia
dinb, dien tich dat thudc quyen sir dung ciia
bp, do diing lau ben), mice dp da dang boa boat
ddng ndng nghiep (cay cdng nghiep, tbiiy san
va cac yeu td phuc vu cho boat ddng kinh
doanh (tiep can tin dung, tiep can thdng tin ky
thuat).
Baulch va Vii Hoang Dat (2012) phan tich
vai trd ctia mdt sd yeu td (dac diem nhan khau
hd, trinh dp hpc van, sd hiiu dat, dac diem xa)
va chat lugng ciia cac yeu td den su khac biet
ve thu nhap, cbi tieu giiia cac nhdm dan cu
(giiia nhdm dan tpc da sd va cac nhdm dan tdc
thieu sd).

PHAT TRI&N BEN VCfNG VCJNG Q U Y £ N 9, S6 2 (6/2019)

123


NGHIEN CO'U THyC NGHlEM - KINHNGHIfM

Ngheo ddi la do nhieu nhan td chi pbdi, cac
nghien cim Pham H6ng Manh (2011) va Pham
Hdng Manh (2012) sir dung md hinh kinh te
lugng de nghien ciiu cac yen td va miic dp anb
hudng tdi thu nhap, chi tieu va tinh trang
ngheo cua cac hd gia dinb trong cgng ddng
ngu dan nghe khai thac hai san ven bd tai tinh
Khanh Hda; ket qua cho tbay cac nhan td chit
yeu gay ra tinh trang ngheo ddi ciia cac hd gia
dinh ngu dan tinh Khanh Hoa boat dpng trong
nghe khai thac ven bd bao gdm: tuoi cua chu
hd, sd ngudi sdng phu thudc trong gia dinh,
tinh trang viec lam, nii ro, kha nang tiep can
ca sd ha tang nghe ca, dat dai va ngudn von
vay. Ap dung cac md hinh dinb lugng hdi qui
da bien va hdi quy phi tuyen binary logistic,
nghien cuu ciia Dao Cdng Thien (2006) cbo
thay cac nhan td anh budng tdi tinb hinh
ngheo ddi ciia cac bp ngu dan ven dam Nha
Phu (huyen Ninh Hda, tinh Khanh Hda) bao
gdm: viec lam, dat dai, vdn, quy mo hp va van
de gidi tinh... trong dd quan trpng nhat la tinb
trang viec lam. Cac ket qua tir cac nghien ctiu

nay cd nhieu y nghia trong viec cung cap cac
bang chiing thyc tien cho viec de xuat cac
chinh sach va giai phap nham gdp phan giam
ngheo ben viing ddi vdi hd ngu dan ven bien.
Qua tdng quan mdt sd nghien cuu cbo thay
cd nhieu yeu to anh hudng tdi giam ngheo ciia
hd. Tuy nhien, van de khdng chi la sd lugng
cac dau vao, vdi ngudn luc hien cd, neu biet
phan bd sir dung hgp ly, nong hd van cd the
nang cao thu nhap; ndi each khac, anh hudng
tdi thu nhap ciia bo khdng chi la cac yeu td dau
vao san xuat ma each thuc pban bo, sir dung
ciing anb hudng.
2. Phucng phap va sd lieu
2.1. Phirong

?lX2,+ .

PnX„
Trong dd:
+ Y la bien gia cd hai gia tri, bang I neu la
hd ngheo (hd nam trong 2 nhdm cd mirc thu
nhap thap nhat), bang 0 neu khdng la ho
ngheo. Cac hd ngheo dugc xac dinh theo tieu
chi thu nhap. Cac hd cd muc thu nhap thap
nhat (thudc nhdm 1 va 2 trong phan chia 5
nhdm tbu nhap) dugc xem nhu hp ngheo.
+ P(Y=^1) la xac suat hp la hp ngheo
+ P(Y^O) la xac suat hd khdng phai hp
ngheo

+ X21, Xni : cac bien dpc lap (bao gdm cac
thanh phan chinh va cac bien khac nhu gidi
tinh chii hd (bang 1 neu chu hd la nam, bang 0
neu la nii), viec lam phi ndng nghiep ciia chu
hp (bang 1 neu chu hd lam phi ndng nghiep,
bang 0 neu lam ndng nghiep), khu vuc thanh
thi - ndng thdn (bang 1 neu la thanh thi, bang 0
neu la ndng thdn), dan tdc ciia chu hd (bang 1
neu la dan tdc kinb, bang 0 cac trudng hpp
khac).
2.2. Sd lieu

phdp

Cac nhan td do ludng ngheo doi rat phong
phii va cd kha nang tuong quan cao trong phan
tich tac ddng ciia cac nhan td den kha nang

124

thoat ngheo. Viec ap diing phuong phap phan
tich thanh phan chinh (PCA) dk. udc lugng cac
thanh phkn cbinb tir t4t ca cac nhan td sau do
su dung cac thanh phan nay lam cac yeu td tac
ddng dkn kha nang giam ngheo cua cac hp se
giam dugc su tuang quan cac bien trong mo
binh hdi qui. Nghien cim nay ap dimg md hinh
Logistic dk danh gia tac ddng giam ngheo. Mo
binh nhu sau:

Nghien ciru nay
mirc sdng dan cu
tdng sd 1083 hd d
dugc lya chpn de

sir dung bp sd Heu dieu tra
2014 (VHLSS 2014) vdi
tinh Khanh Hda. Cac hp
phan tich la cac hp nam

PHAT TRlfiN BEN VLTNG VUNG QUYfiN 9, SO 2 (6/2019)


Nguygn Binh Hoa - Nguyen Thj Anb Tuyet

C^c yeu to anh himng...

trong 3 nhdm thu nhap th^p nhat (theo each
phan chia 5 nhdm thu nhap) (bao gdm 397 hd).

Cac chi tieu theo 5 loai vdn trong viec dinh
danh cac thanh phan va su dung cho phan tich
md hinh hdi quy nhu sau:

Bang 1: CAC CHI TIEU DAJ DIEN CHO CAC CHIEU THEO CACH TIEP CAN
KHUNG SINH KE AP DUNG CHO TINH K H A N H H 6 A
Loaii

Chieu

vdn

Chi tieu dai dien

Sd lugng thanh vien

Tdng sd ngudi

Sd lao ddng boat dgng

Ty le lao ddng phu thudc; tdng sd lao ddng cd
viec lam

Vdn con

Giao due

Ty le lao ddng da tdt nghiep trung hpc phd thdng

Yte

Tdng sd ngudi bi thuang; Tdng sd thanh vien

ngirdi

(THPT) trong tdng so lao ddng.
trong hd tir 6 tudi trd len khdng cd bao hiem y te
(BHYT)
Tai san

+ Tdng sd lugng tai san thdng tin (dien thoai cd
dinh, dien thoai di ddng, ti vi, dai, may vi tinh)
+ Tdng sd lugng tai san phuong tien (xe may)
+ Tdng sd tai san tieu diing (tit lanh, quat dien,
bep ga, ndi cam dien)

Vdn vdt
chdt

Nha d

Dien tich nha d binh quan dau ngudi, loai nha d

Ngudn nudc, nha ve sinh

Ngudn nudc hd sir dung bgp ve sinh, loai nha ve
sinh

Chi tieu cho dien

Tien dien hang thang

Chi tieu cho nudc sinh hoat, rac

Mirc chi tieu trong nam

thai
Von tir

Tiep can dat, rimg, nudc, thuy

nhien

san

Vdn tdi

Thu nhap

Tdng dien tich dat ndng - lam nghiep
Thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi

chinh
Vdnxd

Tham gia td cbiic xa hdi

hdi

Tdng sd thanh vien tham gia cac td chuc: Hdi Phy
nii, Hdi Ndng dan, Hpi Cuu chien binh.

Ngudn: Nhom tdc gid (2019).
3. Ket qua phan tich
Cac bd dupe lua chpn phan tich cd mdt sd
dac diem sau: ve sd nhan khau binh quan 1 bp
la 4 khiu; ty le sd lao ddng tdt nghiep THPT

tren tdng sd lao ddng khoang 20%; tnmg binh
mdt hp CO 1 ngudi tii 6 tudi trd nen khdng cd

BHYT; sd lao ddng cd viec lam trung binh 1
bd la 2 lao ddng.

PHAT TRltN BEN VU'NG VCJNG QUYtN 9, S6 2 (6/2019)

125


NGHIEN CO'U THyC NGHIEM - KINH NGHIEM

Bang 2: M O T SO THONG TIN CHUNG VE HO
Mean

Obs

Variable

Std. Dev.

Min

Max

Tong so nguoi

397

4.09068

1.628918

1

Ty le lao dong tot nghiep THPT

368

0.2393439

0.315255

0

1

Tong so thanh vien khong c6 BHYT

397

1.40806

1.431865

0

7

Tong so nguoi co viec lam

397

2.332494

1.148243

0

7

11

Ngudn: Tinh todn cua nhom tdc gid tic VHLSS 2014.
dyng phan tich thanh phan chinh cho bd so
3.1. Kit qud phdn tich PCA
lieu la pbii hgp (xem Phu lue).
Trudc het, nghien cim tien hanh kiem tra
Dya vao ket qua phan tich PCA cd the thay
tinh phii hgp khi sir dimg phan tich thanh phan
cac tieu chi thudc 5 loai vdn cd the chia thanh
chinh cbo bd dir lieu. Can cii vao kiem dinh
6 thanh phan chinh.
Bartlett va he sd KMO cd the thay rang sir
Bang 3: TONG HOP KET QUA PHAN TICH PCA
Variable

PCI

PC2

FC3

Ty le lao ddng THPT

PC4

PCS

PC6

X

Thanh vien khdng cd BHYT

X

Tdng sd ngudi bi thuong

X

Tdng sd thanh vien trong bd tham gia cac

X

hdi
Tdng sd ngudi

X

Ty le ngudi phu thudc

X

Tdng sd thanh vien cd viec lam

X

Tdng dien tich dat ndng-lam nghiep binh
X

quan
Loai nha d

X

Ngudn nudc

X

Nha Ve sinh
Tien dien

x

Chi dien, nudc, rac thai

X

Tai san thdng tin
Tai san phuong tien
Tai san tieu diing

Dien tich nha d binh quan

X

Thu nhap binh quan dau ngudi

X

Nguon: Tinli todn cua nhom tdc gid tir VHLSS 2014.

126

PHAT TRI^N BtN VCfNG VUNG QUYtN 9. SO 2 (6/2019)


Nguyen Binh Hoa - Nguyin Thj Anh Tuyet

Thanh phan chinh thti nhit (PCI): cbi tieu
tien dien cua hd; cbi tieu cho nudc sinh hoat,
rac thai ciia hd. Tieu chi nay cd the phan anh
tinh trang ngheo tdt hem so vdi viec cd hay
khdng sir dung dien, nudc sach. Bdi hau bet tat
ca cac dia phucmg hien nay deu cd kha nang
tiep can dien do su phat trien manh me ciia
kinh t& xa hdi, co sd ha tang vi the dugc nang
cap, cai thien dap ting muc tieu tang trudng
phat trien chung.
Thanh phan thii 2 (PC2): tdng sd ngudi
trong hp va tdng sd thanh vien bi thuong (dau
6m nang, khdng di lam dugc) va dien tich nha

d binh quan dau ngudi. Thanh phan nay phan
anh quy md ciia hd va quy md luc lugng lao
ddng va mdt phan phan anh dieu kien sdng cita
hp.
Thanh phan chinh tbii 3 (PC3): ty le ngudi
phu thudc, tdng sd ngudi tham gia cac td chtic
xa hpi, t6ng sd ngudi cd viec lam. Thanh phan
thii 3 nay cd the gpi chung la lao ddng boat
dpng.
Thanh phan chinh thii 4 (PC4): ty le lao
dpng tdt nghiep THPT, tdng sd thanh vien hd
hi 6 Uidi trd len khdng cd BHYT. Thanh phan
chinh nay phan anh ve chat lugng vdn con
ngudi ve giao dye va thieu hut trong tiep can
dich vu y te.
Thanh pban cbinb thti 5 (PCS): Loai nha d
va ngudn nudc siiih boat. Day la thanh phan
phan anh dieu kien sdng.
Thanh phan thti 6 (PC6): tdng dien tich dat
n6ng - lam nghiep va thu nhap binh quan dau
ngudi 1 thang ciia hd. Thanh phan chinh nay
vira the hien ngudn luc dau vao cho san xuat,
vira the hien ket qua sinh ke dau ra ciia bd.
Mdt diem dang chti y la viec sd hiru cac tai
san (tai san thdng tin, tai san tieu ditng,
phuong tien di lai) khdng tac ddng d§n kha
nang giam ngheo cua cac hp. Dieu nay la hoan

C i c yiu t6 anh hirong...

toan phit hgp so vdi tinh hinh thuc te: hau bet
mpi gia dinh deu su dung cac loai tai san nay
va chi khac nhau ve gia tri tai san sd hiiu (tinh
theo thdi diem hien tai tren thi trudng). Neu
chi can cif vao sd lugng cac tai san ma bd qua
yeu td ve gia tri cua tai san thi cd the se khdng
phan anh diing thyc trang ngheo cua cac hd.
Nhu vay, neu cbi xem xet sd lupng cac tai san
ma khdng tinh tdi gia tri ciia chitng de phan
chia hg ngheo, khdng ngheo cd the se khdng
phit hop.
3.2. Ket qud md hinh hdi qui
Md hinh phan tich tac ddng cua cac nhan td
den kha nang giam ngheo ciia cac hd tinh
Khanh Hda cho ket qua phit hgp (xem kit qud
kiim dinh Linktestphdn phii luc).
Ket qua phan tich cho thay: vdi miic y
nghia 10% hau het cac thanh phan chinh tac
dpng den kha nang giam ngheo theo tbu nhap
cita tinh Khanh Hda trong dd mtic do tac ddng
theo thti tu giam dan la: thanh phan chinh 4
(PC4), thanh phdn chinh 3 (PC3), thanh phan 6
(PC6), thanh phdn chinh I (PCI), thanh p b k 2
(PC2).
Nbu phan tich tren, PC4 bao gdm ty le lao
ddng tot nghiep THPT va tdng sd ngudi tren 6
tuoi cd BHYT. Theo miic dp tac ddng cd the
thay, trinh dp giao diic ddng vai trd then chdt
quyet dinh kha nang giam ngheo cita bd. Trinh
dp giao dye anh hudng tryc tiep den nhan

thiic, ky nang, tay nghe tir do anb budng tryc
tiep den miic tbu nhap ciia hd va kha nang duy
tri ngudn thu nhap mot each ben virng. Hd cd
ty le lao ddng tdt ngbiep THPT cang ldn thi
miic dp giam ngheo cang ldn.
Tac ddng manh tbii 2 trong sd cac thanh
phan chinh la PC3 (ve lyc lugng lao ddng theo
quy md la tdng sd lao dgng cd viec lam, ty le
ngudi phu thudc va kha nang tham gia cac td
chtic xa hpi ciia cac thanh vien; trong dd ty le
ngudi phu thudc la chi tieu anh hudng nhieu

PHAT T R I E N B E N VU'NG VUNG QUYSN 9, SO 2 (6/2019)

127


NGHIEN CUU THU'C NGHIfM - KINH NGHlEM

nhat den thanh phan chinh nay). Ket qua nay
hoan toan pbu bgp bdi xet cho ciing dii hd cd
ngheo hay khdng ngheo thi deu phai can cii

vao tinh trang viec lam cita lao ddng va nhung
ngudi an theo trong hd.

Bang 4: KET QUA PHAN TICH HOI QUY LOGISTIC KHA NANG GL\M NGHEO
TINH K H A N H HOA

He so hoi qui

-0.31057
2.687454
3.430269

std. Err.
0.69392
1.12298
2.630306

z
-0.45
2.39
1.3

P>z
0.654
0.017
0.192

(95% Conf. Interval]
-1.67063 1.049487
0.4864545 4.888453
-1.725037 8.585574

-0.73367
-15.7357
-1.26428
0.649515
-1.4967
1.813465

-0.69609
1.469154
13.51865
0.0000

1.281235
1516.234
0.512074
0.352615
0.479057
0.657333
0.481615
0.53655
1516.236

-0.57
-0.01
-2.47
1.84
-3.12
2.76
-1.45
2.74
0.01

0.567
0.992
0.014
0.065
0.002

0.006
0.148
0.006
0.993

-3.244842
-2987.5
-2.267929
-0.0415978
-2.435632
0.5251168
-1.640042
0.4175351
-2958.249

Giao due chii h6
Gioi tinh chii ho
Viec lam cua chii
ho
Khu vuc TTNT
Dan toe
PCI
PC2
PC3
PC4
PCS
PC6
_cons
Sig.( Prob > ehi2) =
R2

0.5685

1.777509
2956.029
-0.26064
1.340628
-0.55777
3.101814
0.247855
2.520772
2985.286

Ngudn: Tinh todn eua nhdm tdc gid tic VHLSS
2014.
la nam gidi thi kba nang giam ngheo lai thap
Cac nhan td ve ngudn lyc tai chinh (thu
ban so vdi nii gidi.
nhap binh quan) va ngudn vdn ty nhien (tong
dien tich dat ndng nghiep) trong PC6 ciing tac
ddng manh den kha nang giam ngheo ctia cac
hd. Cudi ciing la anh hudng tir tdng sd nhiing
ngudi bj thuong, cbi tieu dien - nudc - rac thai
(trong thanh phan chinh thir 2, thir I) den tinh
trang ngheo ciia hd.
Ket qua cho thay PCS (ve dieu kien sdng:
loai nha d va ngudn nudc) khdng cd anh
budng den kha nang giam ngheo xet tren khia
canh tbu nhap. Thanh phan nay chi tham gia
khi xet tieu chi hd ngheo tren khia canh dieu
kien sdng va thieu hut ve tiep can dich vu xa

hpi. Cd su khac biet ro ret ve gidi trong viec
giam ngheo ciia cac hd. Vdi nhiing hd chii hd

128

Nhin chung, cac chi sd lya chpn ve 5 loai
vdn theo khung phan tich sinh ke ben vimg
phan ldn deu cd y nghTa trong viec xac dinh hp
ngheo va tac ddng den kha nang giam ngheo
cita tinh. Yiu td quan trong nhdt dnh hu&ng
din khd ndng gidm ngheo lien qua den trinh
do gido due, quy mo vd chdt luang luc luong
lao ddng cua cde ho. Tiep theo sau cac yeu to
nay mdi la tiep can cac ngudn vdn vat chat,
vdn tai nguyen.
Ket luan
Yeu td then chdt de giam ngheo vSn la
trinh dp giao due ciia cac thanh vien trong hp

PHAT TRltN BEN VCfNG VONG Q U Y £ N 9, SO 2 (6/2019)


Nguyin Dinh Hoa - Nguyin Thi Anh Tuylt

(d day la giao dye trung hpc phd thdng). Do
vay, giam ngheo can uu tien tren khia canh
nang cao thu nhap. De eiao due cd hieu qua
, '^
•i'
°

'
• T
can tao cdng an viec lam, tao tbu nhap ngay
•
' •
-p & J
^
trong qua trinh lam viec tir dd mdi thu hiit
•
^ ^
duac
lao nghiep
done ngheo
vao nghe
cu the tham
va cd gia
tinh hoc
thyctap,
tien Cac
cao
;
, .• ^ ^
^
• , -^
thiet ke ve chucmg trinh dao tao can can cii

Cac yeu to anh huwng...

pbii hgp vdi dac thit phat trien kinli te ciia tinh
mdi cd the tao tinh ben viing sau dao tao.

.--^ .; - ^-~ , , i , . . .J
- , ~- ^-A.
Mot so cac tieu chi ve bao hiem xa hoi, tiep
k
.
, ;. ,
, . , ; ' *
can nguon nuoc, chat luong nha o can auoc
-wi, *.-- u - i.
> ^
- ^"
xem
xet ca
theo
dich vu
bantieu
cuachuan
xa hdi.chung cua ca nuac de
* , „ , . ^.^ , ..
;
-.
, ,.;
dam bao dieu kien song cung nbu tiep can cac

Tai lieu tham khao
Baulch, B., va Vii Hoang Dat (2012). Phdn tich khia cgnh ddn tgc cua tinh trgng ngheo tgi VietNam.
Bao cao ca sd cho Danh gia Ngheo nam 2012, thang 5.
Chu Thi Kim Loan va Nguyen Van Hudng (2015). Anh hudng ciia nguon luc den thu nhap cua nong
hp tinh Thanh Hoa: Nghien cim dien hinh d huyen Thp Xuan va Ha Trang. Tap chi Khoa hgc vd Phdt
trien,tap 13, s6 6, tr.1051-1060.

Dao Cong Thien (2006). Phdn tich nhdng nhdn to dnh hudng toi tinh hinh ngheo ddi cua cdc hg ngu
ddn ven ddm Nha Phu (huyen Ninh Hda, tinh Khdnh Hoa), de tai nghien cuu khoa hpc, Sd Nong
Nghiep va phat trien nong thon tinh Khanh Hoa.
Do Thien Kinh, Le Do Mach, Lp Thi Diic, Nguyen Ngpc Mai, Trin Quang va Biii Xuan Du (2001).
"Bat binh dang", chuang 2 trong Haughton, D., Haughton, J. va Nguyen Phong (bien tap). Mice song
trong th&i ky kinh ti bung no, Nxb Th6ng ke, Ha Npi.
Ngan hang The gidi - WB (2012). Kh&i ddu tot, nhtmg chtra phdi dd hodn thdnh: Tlidnh luu dn tugng
cua Viet Nam trong gidm ngheo vd nhirng thdch thirc mai, Bao cao nghien ciiu. Ha Npi.
Nguyen Viet Anh va Tran Thj Thu Thity (2010). Nhiing nhan to anh hudng den thu nhap ciia hp nong
dan CO von vay d huyen Quang Trach, tinli Quang Binh. Tap chi Khoa hoe, Dai hgc Hue, S6 62, tr.5- 13.
Pham Hong Manh (2011). Nguyen nhan va giai phap giam ngheo trong cpng dong ngu dan nghe khai
thac hai san ven bdtai Khanh Hoa. Tgp chi Khoa hoc-Cong nghe thuy sdn, s6 2/2011, tr.3-10
Pham Hdng Manh (2012). Ngheo doi trong cpng dong ngu dan ven bien Khanh Hoa", Tgp chi Khoa
hgc- Cong nghi thuy .-idn, so 1/2012, tr.24-29.
Department for Intemation Development - DFID (2001). Sustainable livelihoods guidance sheets,
London, UK.
United Nations Development Programme - UNDP (1997). Human development Report 1997 "Human
development to eradicate poverty". New York
Unhed Nations Development Programme - UNDP (2010). Human development Report 2010 "The real
wealth of nations: pathways to human development". New York.

/. Kiem dinh Bartlett vd he so KMO
Determinant of the correlation matrix
Det
= 0.000
Bartlett test of sphericity
Chi-square
Degrees of freedom 153

PHAT TRIEN BtN VCfNG VUNG QUYEN 9, SO 2 (6/2019)

129


NGHIEN Cl>U THU'C NGHlEM - KINHNGHIfM

p-value
HO: variables are not intercorrelated
Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of
Sampling
KMO
0.656

Adequacy

2. Kiem dinh sir phu hap cua mo hinh
. linktest, nolog
Logistic
regression
LRchi2(2)
47.34
Prob > chi2
0
Pseudo R2
0.5335

Log likelihood = -20.692693

ngheo

Coef

Std. Err.

P>z [95%
Conf.

2

0.270658

3.83

.0524925

0.06906

0.76

cons -.1294866

0.434709

-0.3

hat
hatsq

1.036967

0.000
.5064866
0.447 .0828621
0.766 .9815012

Thong tin tac gia:
L Nguyen Dinh Hoa, TS
- Don vi cong tac: Vien Kinh te Viet Nam, Vien
Han lam Khoa hpc xa hpi Viet Nam
- Dia chi email:
2. Nguyen Thi Anh Tuyet, TS
- Don vi cong tac: Vien Kinh te Viet Nam, Vien
Han lam Khoa hpc xa hpi Viet Nam

130

Interval]

1 567448
0.187847

Ngay nhan bai: 15/3/2019
Ngay nhan ban sira: 20/4/2019
Ngay duyet dang: 18/5/2019

PHAT TRIEN B £ N V Q N G V U N G QUVeN 9, s o 2 (6/2019)