Điều chỉnh mô hình tăng trưởng kinh tế để vượt bẫy thu nhập trung bình ở việt nam

DIEU CHINH MO H I M TANG TRl/OiNG KINH I E
DE W O T BAY THU N H A P TRUNG BINH d VIET NAM
Phan Thi Cong
Khoa Kinh te - Lugt, tru&ng Dgi hoc Thuang mgi
Email:congt@tmu. eduvn
Fham Thi Minh Uyen
Khoa Kinh ti - Lugt. trudng Dgi hgc Thieang mgi
Email: uyenminh.pham@gmail. com
Ngay nhan: 12/10/2016
Ngay nhan ban siia: 28/10/2016
Ngay duy^t dang: 25/12/2016

Tom tat:
BOI cdnh phdt trien kinh te tgi Viet Nam gdn ddy da cd nhieu bdn khodn vi viec Viet Nam da rai
vdo bdy thu nhdp trung binh hay chua vd Viet Nam cdn Idm gi de khdng rai vdo bdy thu nhap
trung binh. Bdi viit da sir dung phuang phdp thdng ke vd so sdnh giiia nen kinh ti sdp bdy thu
nhdp trung binh vd thuc trgng kinh te Viel Nam; ddng thai su dung phuang phdp phdn tich tinh
huong di trd lai cho cdu hdi tren. Kit qud nghiin ciru da chi ra cd su ldn tgi mdi quan he giira
bdy thu nhdp trung binh vd tdng tru&ng kinh ti. Ben cgnh dd, ket qud nghien cuu cUng khdng
dinh nen kinh ti Viet Nam dang rai vao bdy thu nhap trung binh. Cudi ci4ng, bdi viel de xudt
dieu chinh md hinh tdng tnrang kinh ti mgt cdch todn diin vd triet de giup Viet Nam thodt khdi
bdy thu nhap trung binh.
Tir khoa: Thu nhap trung binh Viet Nam; Md hinb tang trudng kinh te; Bay thu nhap trung binh;
Thodt bdy thu nhap trung binh; Tbu nhap trung binh va tang trudng.
Changing economic growth model to overtake the medium income trap in Vietnam
AbstractThe questions of whether Vietnam has fallen into the middle income trap and what Vietnam
should do to handle the situation have attracted great interest recently. The author applied the
methods of comparing statistics and also case analyses in order to answer these questions. The
findings show the existence of the relationship between middle income trap and economic growth,
confirming that Vietnam is falling into the middle income trap. The paper also recommends
changes in Vietnam'seconomic growth model to help the country get out of the trap.

Keywords. Middle income trap; Vietnam s middle income, economic growth model; avoid
middle income trap; middle income and growth.
1. Bat van dl
Trong nhirng nam gdn day. thuat ngft "thu nhap
trung binh" hay "bdy thu nhdp tmng binh" (the
middle income trap) trd len phd biln trong cac cbinh
sach phat tnln kinh tl ciia cac quic gia, dac biet

S6 235 thdng 01/2017

la cac qudc gia Ddng A, noi ma toe do phdt tnen
kinb te ngay cang cham lai kl tit khi nd ra khung
hoang tai chinh tiln te 1997 (World Bank, 2012).
Thudt ngu nay thyc sy khdng duoc dinh nghTa toan
dien trong cdc nghien ciru ban dau vl nd. Trong mdt
sd trudng hgp nghien cim ma chii ylu la My vd cdc
13

klllllliy'llilllm


thdp, ho|c 14 ndm ddi vdi nude cd thu nhap tnmg
bhih cao (Felipe, 2012). Cdng quan dilm, Ohno
(2006) cung cho rSng neu khdng thi xay dyng dugc
chinh sdch vT md ndng dgng va ling phd vdi sy phan
boa thu nhap trong xa hgi dac biet la trong bdi canh
tu do hda, tu nhan hda vd hdi nhap thi nguy ca sap
biy Cling dl xdy ra.
Nhu vay, bdy thu nhap trung binh la mgt tinh
trang trong phat trien kinh tekhi ma mdt qudc gia

dat den mgt mure thu nhap bitih quan nhat dinh (do
nhiing lgi the san cd) va gi^m chan tai muc thu nhap
dd. Bay thu nhdp trung binb xay den khi mdt qudc
gia phat trien cbiing Iai hay thdm chi la tri he sau khi
d^t dugc mOt muc tbu nhap trung binh.
2.2. Mdi quan he giira bdy thu nhap trung binh
v&i md hinh tang tru&ng kinh te
Giiia bay thu nhap trung binh va tang trudng kinh
te ciia mgt qudc gia cd mdi quan he mat thiet, bdi
bay tbu nhap tnmg binh la mgt thdi diem, mdt giai
doan trong qua trinh tang trudng kinh tecua nen kinb
te. Bay tbu nhap trung binh hinh thdnh va xay ra
trong qua trinh cdng nghiep hda, hi$n dai hda nen
kinh te dat nude, mgt qua trinh ma bat cir qudc gia
nao cung pbai trai qua ke cd khi nude do cd nhiing
uu the Idn ve ty nhien, khi hdu, vi tri dia ly va tai
nguyen (Ohno, 2009).
Mat khac, mdi mgt giai doan phat trien kinb te
gan lien vdi qua trinh cdng nghiep hda - hien dai
boa lai dugc dac trung bdi mgt md hinb kinb te nhdt
dinh. Do vay, bay tbu nhdp trung binb cung cd mdi
quan he bien cbiing vdi md binb tang trudng kinh te.
Cd thi cbia 4 giai doan cua qud trinh cdng nghiep
hda - bien dai hda thanh 3 kieu md hinb tdng trudng
kinb te nhu sau:
- Md hinh tang trudng kinh te theo chieu rdng
(mo binh tang trudng theo sd lugng) tuang irng vdi
giai doan 1 cua qua triiib cong nghiep hda. Trong
dd, 2 yeu td dau vao cua qud trinh tang trudng la sd
lugng vdn ddu tu vd lyc lugng lao ddng phd tbdng

(Chu Van Cdp, 2011). Dac diem ciia md binb kinh te
nay Id ludng vdn FDl do vao ddu tu d at, ngdnh san
xuat ndi dia chi ddng vai trd gia cdng, lap rap san
phdm gian dcm cho cac doanh nghiep nude ngodi,
lyc luang Iao dgng co ham lugng tri tbiic thap
- Mo binh tang trudng kinli te ket hop cd chilu
rong va chilu sau (md binh tang trudng ket hgp sd
lugng va chat lugng) tuang ung vdi giai doan 2 va
3 ciia qua trinh cdng nghiep hda, Giai dogn 2, ludng
vdn FDl da dugc tich luy trong nen kinb te du Idn
Sd 235 thdng 01/2017

de md rgng qui md san xudt cung nhu tang t^ 1?
ngi dja hda trong chudi gia tri cung ung. Cdc cdng
ty nude ngoai md rgng ddu tu chuyen sdu vdi yeu
cdu cao ban ddi vdi nganh cdng nghiep hd trg. O
giai doan nay, thu nhdp va tiln luong tang khdng
nhilu vi cong ngh? quan ly vdn do ngudi nude ngoai
nim giG. Giai dogn 3: Giai doan nay lyc lugng lao
dgng ndi dia ti^n tiln, vdi ham lugng tri thiic cao,
cac nganh san xuat cdng nghidp phat trien manh me,
thay thi hdu hit cac khdu cd ylu td nude ngoai nen
gia tri ndi tai tang nhanh chdng, nin san xudt chuyen
tu gia cdng sang sang tao san xuat, vdi cac sdn phdm
chdt lugng cao, xuat khau va tao ra siic canh tranh
vdi cac ddi thii qudc te; thu nhap, tien lucmg tang
nbanh chdng.
- Md hinh tdng hudng kinh tl theo chieu sdu (md
hinb tang dirdng chdt lirgng) hrong ung vdi giai
doan 4 cua qua trinh cdng nghiep hda. Trong dd,

tdng trudng kinb tl dya tr8n 3 ylu td ddu vao la tien
bd khoa hgc cdng nghe vd hieu qua sii dung von, lao
dgng (Chu Van Cdp, 2011).
NIU mgt qudc gia khdng the thay ddi nang suat
Iao dgng ciia chiidi minh thdng qua viec chuyin ddi
tii nin kinh tl cd ham lugng tri thiic va cdng nghe
thdp, sang nen kinh te trinh do cao thi qudc gia do se
khdng the vugt dugc ngudng thu nhdp trung binh va
ngugc lai. Nguyen nhan co ban cua tinh tr^ng vuong
bdy thu nhdp trung binh dugc md ta cd the bao gdm
cac vdn de sau:
(1) Hien tugng mdt qudc gia ti6p tuc duy tri md
hinh tang trudng kinh te dua vao viec tdng trudng
vdn dau tu toan xa hgi trong khi hieu qua vdn dau
tu bl suy giam;
(2) Ngudn nban lyc chu yeu dugc khai thdc d sd
lugng ma chua cbii trgng den ky nang, trinh do, chat
lugng dan den nang sudt Iao ddng kem;
(3) Khoa hgc ky thudt lac bdu, nang lyc ddi mdi
sang tao chdm cdi thien va tang trudng kinh te kbdng
gan lien vdi muc tieu phat tnen con ngudi;
(4) Chinb sach edng nghiep kbdng chat lugng
(Ohno, 2006 va 2009).
Nhu vay, nlu mdt qudc gia duy tri md binh kinb
te theo chieu rgng thi chac chan se rai vao bdy thu
nhap trung binh sdm, tham chi cd the bay tbu nhap
trung binb xudt bien vao giai doan 2 cua qud trinh
tang trudng, hie la qudc gia dd khdng thi vugt len
thu nhap trung binb cao trong thai gian dai, do mat
uu the ve chi phi san xuat thdp, Ddi lap vdi tinh ti'ang

dd, qudc gia nao cang sdm dilu cbinb md hinh kinb

Kiniiiyiiiillrii'n


nhilu bdt cap, nang luc canh tranh cham dugc cai
thien. Thyc trang mo hinh tang trudng kinh te ciia
Viet Nam dugc phdn tich dudi cac ngi dung sau:

tl theo chieu sau thi kha nang thoat biy thu nhdp
trung binh cang cao.
3. Kha nang s|p bSy thu nh?p trung binh va
mo hinh tSng truwng kinh t l cua Vift Nam

3.1.1. Tdng tne&ng kinh te vd thu nhap binh quan
dau ngu&i
D I tea Idi cho cau hdi nghien ciiu Viet Nam da
Mdt trong nhung thanh tyu quan trgng nhat troag
hay chua sap bdy thu nhap trung binh, bai viet xdy
dung gia thuyit tbdng ke: H„: Nin kinh ti Viet Nam qua trinh ddi mdi d Vi8t Nam la duy tri tdc do tdng
da sgp bay thu nhdp trung binh. Ben canh dd, bai trudng GDP hang ddu trong khu vuc, nhd vay thu
vilt lya chgn phuong phap chiing minh gid thuyet nhdp binh qudn ddu ngudi cung khdng nguog tang
hen bdng cdch danh gid cac dac diem ciia nen kinh len. Tu nam 2008, Vi8t Nam vdi miic Ihu nhap bmh
tl Viet Nam hien nay so sanh vdt cdc tieu chi cua quan ddu ngudi 1018 USD/ngudi/namdd chinh thirc
mdt nin kinb tl dugc cho la da sap bdy thu nhap gia nhdp nhdm cac nude cd thu nhdp tnmg binh.
frung bmh ciia Ohno (2006 va 2009) dua tren sd lieu Hang nam, cbi tieu thu nhdp trung binh cd thay doi,
nhung tdng trudng ludn ndm trong gidi ban thu nhap
tbdng ke thu cap.
trung binh thdp (Theo hinh 1, tdc do tang hudng
3.1. Thuc trgng mo hinh tang trirang kinh te kinh tl ciia Viet Nam td nam 2013 - 2016 da tang

eua Viet Nam
ddn, cu thi ndm 2013 la 1.910 USD va 5,54%; nam
Md hinh tdng truang kinh ti Viet Nam thuc thi 2014 la 6,07%, nam 2015 la 2200 USD va tdc do
tie 1986 din nay dugc cac ky Dai hdi Dang khdng tang trudng la 6,87%), theo Trdn Van Thg (2012) va
dinh la md hinh tdng tru&ng kinh ti theo chiiu rdng World Bank (2016). Theo dac diem ve thu nhdp hmh
dua tren ca s& khai thdc lgi thi vi tdi nguyin thien qudn cua cac nude trong qua trinh bat kip, Viet Nam
nhiin, ngudn nhan luc ddi ddo, gid re (Chu Van cd the dang d giiia, cudi giai doan I hoac kha quan
cap, 2011). Md hinh kinh tl nay tuy da tao ra tdc nhat la ddu giai doan 2.
do tang trudng kinh te kha cao, thu nhdp binb qudn
3.1.2. Chinh sdch phdt triin nganh cdng nghiep
ddu ngudi dugc cai thien kha nbanh nhung lai bdc
Id nhilu ban che nhu khdng tao ra siic bdt thyc su vd hieu qud sir dung vdn ddu tu
dl keo gdn khodng each vdi cac nude phat trien di
Cimg vdi tang trudng kinb te. co cdu kinh te cua
trudc, chdt lugng tang trudng thap do ludng vdn FDl Viet Nam da cd nhiing budc chuyen minh ddng ke.
vao Viet Nam cd ty Ie ndi dia hda rdt thap nen nd Ty trgng eac nganh phi ndng nghiep ddng gop vao
kbdng trd thanh dpng lyc manh me de cai thien tbu GDP dugc nang len rd ret. Trinh do phdt trien ciia
nhap binh quan dau ngudi, tien luong va nang cao nen kinh te timg budc dugc ndng len, ty trgng nganh
chat lugng ngudn lao ddng. Nen tang co ban cua cdng nghiep va dich vu tang trudng nbanh, dich
tang trudng (bao gdm: on dinh kinb te vT mo, the chuyen nen kinh te Viet Nam tir ndng nghiep thuan
che kinb te xa bgi, giao due, y te, co sd ba tang) cdn niy sang nganh cdng nghiep, dich \"u lam chu dao.
Hinh 1: T6e do tang trudng Idnh te cua \ i l t Ni
^

9.00
8.56

•'t
•S
^

5

8,00
7.50
7.0Q
6 50

8 44 , „ 8.46
8.23
••"'X
\
\
\

7 79/
7.34 > r
, „ „ 7.08 - > ^
6 79 6 s g j ^ ^ ^ r '
•

*

A23

6 30 6

"b

~ 6 00
^5§0

\^

.=. 5-00
" ^ 4 50
1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

8

2010

2012

2014

2016
Xani

Nguon. Tinh todn tir sd lieu ciia Tdng cue thdng ke
So 235 thdng

01/201"

kinll leilml

i


Tuy nhien, trong nghiSn cuu vl cdng nghiep Viet
Nam va bdy thu nhap trung binh ctia Ohno (2009),
gia dinh rang viec tliilu vdng mdt chinh sdch cdng
nghiep cd chdt lugng la nguySn nhdn ddn din biy
thu nhap trung bmh. Theo dd, dng ddnh gia chdt
lugng chinh sach cdng nghiep Viet Nam bdng each
xem xet td hgp gdm 10 tiSu chi sau: (i) ngudn nhdn
lyc cdng nghiep; (ii) Su phat hnin ciia doanh nghi?p
trong nuoc; (in) mdi trudng kinh doanh; (iv) nang
lugng va logistics; (v) khuyen khich xudt khau; (vi)
quang ba chiln luge dau tu tryc tilp nude ngodi;
(viii) cac khu cdng nghidp; (viii) cac nganh cdng
nghiep hd trg va cdc doanh nghiep dia phuang ket
ndi vdi dan tu tryc tilp nude ngoai; (ix) nang sudt,
cdng nghe va ddi mdi; va (x) tieu chuan va thir
nghiem. Vi tbi, cd the thdy, chinh sach cdng nghiep
Viet Nam chua chdt lugng, va day ciing dugc danh
gid la mgt nguyen nhan ddy nin kinh tl Viet Nam
sap bdy tbu nhdp trung binh.
Mat khdc, hiiu qud ddu tu chua cao ddng nghia
vdi chdt lucmg tdng truang thdp. Hieu qua sic dung
vdn dugc danh gia thdng qua he sd ICOR, the hi?n
moi quan he gi&a dau tu va tang trudng kinb te. Nhin
chung cbi sd ICOR ciia Viet Nam cdn cao trong cac

giai doan. Chi sd ICOR cua kinh te Viet Nam tir miic
7,04 giai doan 2001- 2005 va miic 6,18 giai doan
2006 - 2010, giai doan 2013-2015 Id 5,78 (Tdng cyc
thdng ke, 2015). Xet ve tirng dy an, cdn Ididng it dy
an ddu tu cd hieu qua thdp, khdng dap ung dugc yeu
cau phat trien kinh teva xa hdi, ca biet cd nhu-ng du
dn, ndi dung dau tu triing lap, chdng cheo, hoac gdy
cdn trd, lam mat hieu qua cua cac dy an da dugc ddu
tu trudc do. He sd nay phan anh nen kinb te Viet
Nam phat trien theo chieu rgng, tire cbii yeu dya vao
su tang vdn, it dua vao su gia tang hieu qua su dung
lao ddng va vdn thong qua iing dung khoa hgc cdng
nghe vao sdn xudt va qudn Iy.
Neu nen kmh te khong thay doi ve rad binb tang
trudng va van duy tri sy tang trudng theo chieu rgng
tbi se rat sdm (vdi sy thay doi tirng ngay cua the gidi.

sy canh tranh ngay cang khdc liet giiia cdc qudc gia)
chiing ta mat di Igi thi so sanh so vdi cac nude phat
triln di sau khiln cho cac nha ddu tu nude ngoai se
rdi bd va chuyin hudng ddu tu sang cac qudc gia
khdc. Llic do, chiing ta khd cd the duy hi tdc do tang
truong nhu hien t^i.
3.L3. Nang luc cgnh tranh khdng dugrc cdi thien
nhieu
Theo Klaus (2015), bao cao ciia Diln dan Kinh te
the gidi dugc thyc hien d 140 nude ve chi sd canh
tranh toan cdu dua tren nbieu ylu to khac nhau, bao
gdm 7 nhdm try cdt: Tbi che, ca sd ba tdng, mdi
trudng kinh tl vT md, y te va giao due ca ban, giao

due bdc cao vd dao tao, hieu qua thi trudng hang
hda, bieu qua thi trudng Iao ddng, mirc do phdt trien
ciia thi trudng tai chinh, mure dp san sang cdng nghe,
quy md tbi trudng, muc do phat trien doanh nghiep
va ndng lyc sang tao. Bao cdo cho thdy, Viet Nam
diing thu 56 tren bang xep hang nang luc canh tranh
toan cau giai doan 2015-2016, tang 12 bdc so vdi vi
tri 68 trong giai doan 2014 - 2015, miic do tang ve
nang luc canh tranh kbdng cao, thii bang cdn d mirc
trung binb ciia the gidi. Nhung chi sd nay, mgt phdn
nao dd chi rd, nang lyc canh tranh toan cdu cua Viet
Nam chua dugc cdi thien nhieu.
3.2. Ddnh gid kha ndng sap bdy thu nhap trung
binh a Vi$t Nam
Tir 2011, tai van kien dai hdi XI cua Dang Cdng
san Viet Nam,da xac dinh: "chuyen ddi md hinh
tang trudng tir chii yeu theo chilu rdng sang phat
trien hgp ly giira chieu rgng va chieu sau, chii trgng
ndng cao hieu qua, chdt lugng". Nhu vay, Viet Nam
da chuyen ddi md hinh kinh te sang ket hgp sd lugng
va chdt lugng dugc gan 5 nam Tuy nhien, day mdi
la giai doan ddu ciia qud trinh chuyen ddi rad hinh
tang trudng kinh te, nen kinh te vdn mang nhieu dau
dn cua mo binh kinh te sd lugng, dan den cd nhieu
dau hieu cbo thay Viet Nam cd khd nang cao dd sap
bay tbu nhap trung binh bao gdm:

Bang I. Hieu qua ddu tu toan nen kinh te \'iet Nam
Chi tieu

2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2012 2013-2015

Toe do tang GDP/nSm (%)

7,51

7.01

5,8

6,02

Toe do tang dau tu/nam (%)

14,13

13,5

2,5

11,1

ICOR (ticli luy tai san)

4,62

5,06

5,01

5,4

ICOR (dau ttr)

7,04

6.18

4,6

5,78

Xgiioii: Tinh todn fir so lieu cua Tong cue ihdng ki!
So 235 thiing 01/2017

killllllVl'll


Bang 2: Kich ban mo hinh tdng trudng kinh te va kha nSng sap bay thu nhap
trung binh cua Viet Nam
Kha
Kha
Thu nhdp/ nguoi du kien
Toe dd tang
Kich ban md
nang
nang
(USD theo PPP)
hinh Tang tnrdng trudng trung
thirc

sap bay
Nam
Nam
Nam
binh nam
Idnh te
lii^n
thu
2050
2040
dulden
2035
nhdp
trung
binh
Mo hinb ket hgp
11.000* Kha
Cbdc
10.000*
8.500*
Giii nhu bien
so lugng va chat
quan
chan
lugng nhung thien t^i (khoang
ve so lugng (duy
5%)
tri md hinh hien
tai)
12.000

14.000
15.000
Rdt khd Cao
>= 7% nam
thuc
hien

Mo hinh ket hgp
sd lugng va chat
lugng nhimg thien
ve chat lugng (cai
each manh me)

Xdp xi
5%/nam

15.000

18.000

22.500*

6Vc./ndm

18.000

22.000

27.000*

Tham
vpng

Thap

Rat
tham
vgng

Rdt thdp

Ngudn
dybao

Tdcgjd
(so lieu
ed dau *)
Td chiic
cae nude
hgp tac
vapbat
trien kinh
fl
(OECD)
Ngdn
hang the
gidi
Ngan
hang the
gidl

Rat kho
thyc
hien
Nguon: fVorld Bank (2016), OECD (2014) vd linh todn ciia cdc tdc gid
>= 7% nam

22.000

25.000

Thu- nhdt, sie tdng cua thu nhdp binh qudn dau
ngudi cham, ddn tdi kha nang da qud thdi ban cho
phep Viet Nam van chua vugt len trd thdnh nude cd
tbu nhap cao tren the gidi. Kich ban md hinh tang
trudng va kha nang sap bdy tbu nhap tmng binb cua
Viet Nam dugc torn tdt qua bang 2.
Theo cdc kjch ban dugc xay dung d bang 2. Viet
Nam hien nay dang duy tri md hinh tang trudng kinh
te nhdn so lugng vdi toe do tang trudng kinh tl xoay
xung quanh 5% Vdi mo hinb kinh tl nhu thi (va
klia nang thay ddi md hinh kinh tl khdng quyit liet),
Viet Nam se khdng the vuat bay thu nhap trung binh
va kha nang roi vao bay la chdc chdn. Mirc tbu nhdp
binh quan ddu ngudi cua Viet Nam din 2020 se la
3.500 USD chi luang duong Malaysia nam 1992 va
Thai Lan nam 2007. Din nam 2030, mirc thu nhdp
binh quan dau ngudi dy kiln cua Viet Nam la 6.034
USD. Viet \ani cd kha nang cao roi vao bdy thu
nhap trung binh.

Thir hai. ndng sudl lao dong cua Viet Nam thap.
Sd 235 thdng 01/2017

31.500*

Rat thap Ngan
hang the
gidi

Theo Tdng cue thong ke (2015), tdng sd lao dong
tir 15 tudi trd len chua qua dao tao chuyen mon ky
thuat chiem 81,8%; trinh do trung cdp chilm 3,7%;
cao dang chiem 2.1% va dai hgc trd len chilm 7.6%
trong tdng so gdn 60 trieu Iao ddng ca nude. Hien
nay d Viet Nam, viec ndng cao chdt lugng nguon
lyc Iao ddng, cdn yeu so vdi khu \-uc va the gidi.
Ty le dau tu cho cac boat ddng nghien cuu va triln
kbai binh qudn so vdi GDP cdn qua thap so vdi
khu vuc va the gidi: chi cho khoa bgc - cong nghe
khoang 2% ngan sach nha nude tuang ducmg 0,5%
GDP (Trung Qudc 17% GDP; Brazil 13% GDP;...)
(OECD, 2014). Cac boat ddng khoa hoc cdn chua
gan lien vdi san xuat. phuc vu yeu cdu ddi mdi chat
lugng trong san xuat va ndng cao nang sudt Iao
dgng. Ngoai ra, boat dgng khoa hgc cdn mdt can doi
theo nganh nghe Imh vyc dan den khoa hgc cdng
nghe chua trd thanh ddng luc tbiic ddy ddi mdi chat
lugng san xudt.
Nhu vdy, can cu vao cac diera cua nen kinh te. so

kinlili'iliallriPii


Hmh 2: GDP/ ngirdi cua Vi^t Nam \k cac nude trong khu vuc ASEAN
- > Viel Nam

-H»—Malaysia

^

Thai Lan

30000
25000

..^

20000
15000

-

•

^

'

10000

—a----

5000

1990

1995

2000

N/
2005

2010

2015

2020

2035

2050*
12000

•VietNam

118

288

402

639

1114

2109

3500

6034

' Malaysia

2550

4612

4287

5599

8920

12127

16080

23986

•Thai Lan

1571

2846

2028

2906

5063

5426

6839

9665

Ngudn: World Bank (2016), OECD (2014) vd tinh todn cita cdc tdc gid
sanh vdi cdc tieu cbi cua mgt nen kinb te dugc cho
la da s?ip bdy thu nhap trung binb trong qua trinh bdt
kip cdc nude ma Ohno (2006) xdy dung, bai viet chi
ra rang khdng cd ly do bac bd gia thuyet H^ vd khang
dinh nen kinb te Viet Nam dang sap bdy thu nhdp
trung binb va chi cd each thay ddi manh me md hinh
kinh te mdi giiip cbiing ta vugt bay.
4. Dieu chinh md hinh tdng trirdmg kinh t€ vdi
w o t bay thu nhap trung binh d Vift Nam

dd, bai viet de xuat dieu chinh md hinh tdng trudng

kinh te Viet Nam qua 3 giai doan (cbi tiet Hinb 3)

Qua nhirng pban tich tren, Viet Nam cd the da
dang trong bdy tbu nhdp trung binh, sau 10-15 nam
nira tang trudng kinb te se chdm lai nbieu neu nbu
khdng cd nhiing banb ddng thay ddi quyet liet ve
md binb tang trudng kinb te ngay tir bay gid (Ohno,
2009; Worid Bank, 2016). Bang 2 cbo thay Viet
Nam pbai thyc bien md binb tang trudng kinb te
nhdn manh chat lugng, Idy nang cao nang sudt Iao
ddng, ndng cao bieu qua sit dung cac ngudn lyc va
tang sue canh tranh ciia nen kinh te lam muc tieu
bang ddu nham vira dam bao phat trien kinh te ben
vii:ng. Viet Nam da thuc hien md hinh kinb te cbii
trgng dau tu tir 2011 (nhdn manh vao sd lugng) va
dang chuyen doi sang md binb tang trudng kinh te
ket hgp giiia sd lugng va chat lugng. De thoat bay
thu nhap trung binh, Viet Nam phai quyet tam cai
each manh me md hinh tang trudng kinb te, tien tdi
md hinh tang trudng kinb te chat lugng hoan loan.
Theo cac kich ban ma nhdm nghien cuu dua ra, de
tien tdi miic tieu 2035 trd thanh nude co thu nhdp
cao, vice cai each manh me nen kinh te phai duoc
tien banh theo cdch tiep can "tuan tu, tiem tien. va
dac biet khdng gdy cii sdc Idn cho toan xa hdr'. Do

Cd thi tdm tdt hod md hinh tdng tnrang kinh ti
ndy nhu sau:

- Giai doan 2011-2020: thuc bien md binb tang

trudng kinb tl ket hgp sd lugng va chdt lugng;
- Giai doan 2020-2030: thuc bien md hinh tdng
trudng kinh tl ket hgp nhdn chdt lugng;
- Giai doan 2030-2045: thyc bien md hinh tang
trudng kinh te chdt lugng.

(1) Quy hoach Iai chien luge phat trien cdng
nghiep gan lien vdi ddu tu manh me cho khoa bgc
cdng nghe; trudc het la tang cudng ddu tu pbat trien
cdng nghiep phu trg, tien tdi phat trien cdng nghiep
npi dia lam dgng luc thiic ddy cac nganh kinh te
kbac. Them vao do, qudc gia cdn cdi thien nang luc
ddi mdi sdng tao trong nude, bao gdm: cai thien
cbinb sach ve ddi mdi sang tao; tang cudng quan tri
cdng trong he Ibong doi radi sdng tao va tang cudng
ngudn nhan lyc cho ddi mdi sang tao.
(2) Ddu tu trgng diem cho giao due, khoa bgccdng nghe, xa hdi hda manh me ngudn luc ddu tu
cho ITnh vyc nay gop phan nang cao chat lugng
ngudn lao ddng va tang ndng sudt Iao dgng, xdy
dyng thi trudng giao due thyc su.
(3) Tai ca cau nganh kinh tl, tai co cau ddu tu
todn xa bgi, tien tdi dimg xuat khdu nguyen vat lieu
thd, chuyen ddn sang nganh kinh tl xanh, co gia tri
gia tang cao.
(4) Md hinh tang trudng kinb tl theo hudng than

So 235 thdng 01/2017

Illlll'JIlilltril'!!

Hinh 3: Dilu chinh mo hinh tang trirdug kinh te qua tirng giai doan
Giai doan 2030-2045
Giai do^n 2020-2030

Giaiaoan2011-2D20

C(j c4u kinh te bha vung

Tang tmrmg dira vao noi lyc

iK

Tai ca cau diu tu toan x3 h^i

Tai cir cau doanh nghiep nha

Tai CO clu tin tmong Tai
chinh-Ngin hang

Phai tnln mjnh cQng
nghifp noi dia va cong
nghiep phy tro

TSng dau tir cho giao dye va
cdng nghe

t

/

D§u tu ddt ph^ cbo khoa hgc
cong nghe, ph^E trien manh
me th| Inrimg giao dye

Phat triSn cong nghiep phu trg

1

Cong nghe s^ch, ham luyng
tri thite cao

Oiing xuat khau nguyen vat
lieu tho

a^'^-^
. - - /

^

Till tnrong giao due phat tri&i
loan difn, khoa hoc - cong
nghe hien d|u

Tfii Cff c§L nganh kinh te
Muc tieu bao ve moi tnicmg
va phat Dien con nguoi ta
hang diu
Phan ph6i cong bang, an sinh
xa h$i bien dai, gia tn cao

^ ^

Phat tnen mo hinh lang tniong

Y Ie, van hoa, the thao phat
¥1*
Mo hinh tang trir&ng liil hpp

.Mo hinh lang Irir&ng liel hap
nhan dial lirffng

Md liinh lang trudng Iheo
chat licffng

Ngudn: De xudt cua cdc tdc gid
thien vdi mdi trudng: tdng trudng kinh te di ddi vdi
sir dung hgp ly va tiet kiem tai nguyen; nang cao khd
ndng tdi sinh tdi nguyen; phdng, chdng suy thoai,
d nhilm moi trudng, coi trgng tang trudng kinh tl
xanh, khuyen kbich san xudt vd tieu diing sach.
(5) Md hinh tang trudng kinb te mdi hudng tdi
muc tieu phat trien con ngudi: tang trudng kinh tl
gan vdi phat trien xa hdi, pban phdi binb dang, phat
trien he thdng an sinh xa hgi, bao dam binh ddng ddn
tdc va binb dang gidi.
Thyc hien hieu qua mo hinh nay la budng di duy
nhat giilp Viet Nam thoat khdi bdy thu nhdp hung
binh va budng tdi pbat triln bin vimg nin kinh te
5. Kit luan
Viet Nam sau nhieu nam ddi mdi cd thi da roi

vao bdy tbu nliap trung binh khi ma nin kinh tl vdn
chii yen dua vao khai thac cac nguin luc gia re, xuat
khau ndng san ddc canh va nguyen \at lieu thd,
so cbi, hoac lulng vdn FDl hay vien trg cua nude
ngoai. De vugt bdy thu nhap trung binh, Viet Nam
cdn dat ra nhirng muc tieu cu thi cho qudc gia hay
So 235 thdng 01/2017

doanh nghiep. Viet Nam can dieu chinh md binh tang
trudng kinb te, budng tdi md hinh tdng trudng hien
dai. Md hinh tang trudng hien dai dat cdc muc tieu
chat lugng (ca cdu, hieu qua, nang lyc canh tranh,
vi the cua n6n kinb te trong he thdng pban cong Iao
dgng qudc te va khu vuc,...) len vi tri uu tien hang
dau so vdi cac muc tieu tang trudng san lugng.
De budng tdi md binh tang trudng kinh te nhdn
chat lugng, Viet Nam can tap tmng thyc hien cac
chinh sdch cu the nhu: Ndng cao chat lugng ngudn
nhdn lyc, tdng nang sudt lao ddng, trinh dd khoa hgc
va cdng nghe, tang cudng anh budng cua cac nhdn to
ndng sudt tdng hgp. nang cao bieu qua su dung \ on.
hudng boat dgng ciia nen kinb te theo cdc nganh, cac
Imh vuc cd gia tri gia tang, giam chi pbi trung gian,
khai thac Igi the san xudt san phdm cdng nghe cao,
thyc hien dong bd hod qua trinh khai thac va che
bien san pham. De thyc hien dugc nhiing dieu do,
can tang cudng dau tu hon niia theo chieu sau doi
vdi cac nguon lyc lam nen tang cho tang tiirdng ben
\ijng ddi ban.

hinhliAllrieii


Tai li^u tham Ichao

Agenor, P.R.& Aizenraan,!. (2010), 'Aid volatility and poverty traps'Journal ofDevelopment Economics, 91,1-7.
Chu Vdn Cdp (2011), 'Dli mdi md binh tang hudng kmh tl theotinhthdn dsii hgi XI cua Bang,'JCy yiu hgi thdo "Van
Kien dgi hgi Ddng: Mgt sd vdn di ly lugn vd thuc tiin ", Tap chi Cong san. Ha Ndi.
Felipe, J. (2012), 'Tracking the Middlehiconie Trap: What is It, Who is m It, and Why? Part 1', ADB Economics
Working Paper Series. No. 306, ADB, March 2012.
Gill, I. & Kharas, H. (2007), An East Asian Renaissance. Ideas for Economic Growth, Worid Bank, Washmgton D.C.
Klaus, S. (2015), 'The Global Competitiveness Report 2015-2016', World Economic Forum, truy cap ldn culi ngay 30
thang 8 ndm 2016, tii< />OECD (2014), Khoa hgc, cong nghe vd ddi m&i sdng tgo a VietNam, Bao cao tdng quan. Ha Ndi.
Ohno, K. (2006), Hogch dinh chinh sdch cong nghiep d Thdi Lan. Malaixia vd Nhgt Bdn: Bdi hgc cho cdc nhd hogc
dinh chinh sdch cda Viet Nam. Dien dan phat trien Viet Nam, Ha Ngi.
Ohno, K. (2009), Bay thu nhdp trung binh: NhOng grriy cho chien luge cong nghiep hoa a Ddng A vd Chdu Phi, Die
dan Phat Uiln GRIPS, Tokyo.
Ting cue thing ke (2015), Tinh hinh kinh lixa hot ndm 2010-2015, ldn cudi ngay 30 thang 8 nam 2016, tir gso.gov. vn/Default.aspx?tabid=706&ItemID-13412>.
Trin Van Tho (2012), 'Bay thu nhap trung binh hi cac nude ASEAN'.rap chi thoi dgi mdi, 24, 48-78.
Woo, W.T. (2009), Getting Malaysia Out of the Middle-Income Trap, Mimeo, University of California Davis.
Woo, W.T. (2011), 'Understanding the Middle-Income Trap in Economic Development: The Case of Malaysia',
Presentation, The 2011 World Economy Asia lecture. University of Nottingham Globalization and Economic
Policy Conference, January 13"*.
World Bank (2009), Vietnam Enterprise Survey, Washington, DC.
World Bank (2012), World Development Indicators, World Bank: Washington D.C.

World Bank (2016), Viet Nam 2035: Hirang tai Thinh vuong. Sdng tgo, Cong hdng vd Ddn chit. Ngan hang The gid
tai Vi?t Nam, Nha xuat ban Hong Dire, Ha Ngi.

So 235 thang 01/2017

-'

killllll'J'llill