Di cư, tích tụ dân số nhanh và những tác động đến kinh tế, xã hội từ góc nhìn của người di cư đến các tỉnh đông nam bộ

Di CU", tich tu dan so niianli va nhirng tac dong den kinh te, xa hoi
tir goc nhin cua nguoi di cu" den cac tinh Dong Nam Bo
Luu Bich Ngoc
Viin Ddn sd vd cdc vdn di xd hpi, Tru&ng dgi hgc Kinh ti qudc ddn
Email: bichngocluu(g),gmail. com
Nguyen Thi Thieng
Viin Ddn sd vd cdc vdn di xd hdi, Truimg dgi hoc Kinh ti qudc ddn
Email: thiengnt@gmail. com
Ngaynhan: 13/7/2016
Ngay nhan ban sira: 15/8/2016
Ngay duyet dang: 25/8/2016

Tom tat:
Ddng Nam Bp Id vitng cdng nghiip hda, dd thi hod nhanh, hiin da tr& thdnh khu vuc kinh ti
phdt trien nhdt Viet Nam, ddng gop han 2/3 tdng thu ngdn sdch nha nu&c hdng ndm. Ddy la
vitng cd ty li do thi hod cao gdp ddi ty li chung ciia todn qudc. Ddng th&i, day ciing la vitng
CO miec dp tap trung ddn sd nhanh nhdt nu&c trong thdp niin viea qua xet cd vi quy md ldn ty
sudt nhgp cu. Di cu, tich tu ddn sd tgo nin nhieng tdc dpng tich cite cd ve kinh ti, xd hpi. Bin
cgnh do, nd ciing tgo nin nhiing nhiing dp luc ddi v&i cd 2 mat ndi trin. Nghiin cu-u ndy thuc
hien ddnh gid tdc ddng cua di cu, tich tu ddn sd nhanh den kinh ti, xd hpi cita viing Ddng Nam
Bd dua trin y kiin ddnh gid tdc dpng cita chinh bdn thdn ngu&i di cu. Nhimg nhdn td dnh
hucmg din cdc nhgn dinh cua ngu&i di cu vi cdc tdc dpng tich cue hoac tiiu cue cimg dugc
ldm rd bdng phdn tich hdi quy.
Tir khoa: Di cu; Tich to dan sd; Tac ddng kinh te, xa hpi, Ddng Nam Bd
Migration, rapid population concentration and socio-economic Impacts evaluated by
migrants in Southest region
Abstract:
Southeast is the rapid urbanization and industrialization region that has now become a most
developed economic region in Vietnam, contributing more than 2/3 of the total of state budget
revenue annually. This area has a urbanization rate double higher than the national average
rate. At the same time, this is also the region that has the fastest population concentration level

in the countiy in some last decades both in terms of size and migration rate. Migration, rapid
population concentration created the positive impacts on economy, society. Besides, it also
created many pressures on three sides above. This study aimed at analyzing the economic,
social impacts of migration and rapid population concentration in Southeast region, that
based on the evaluation of the migrants themselves. The factors affecting the migrants' evaluations on the positive or negative impacts were made clearer by regression analysis.
Keywords: Migration; population concentration; socio-economic impacts; southest region
1. Gioi thieu

thu hut vdn dau tu manh nhat tren toan qudc, ddng

Sau chinh sach Ddi Mdi ciia Chinh phii, Ddng

thdi, day cung la vung cd muc dp tap trang dan sd

Nam Bp la viing cdng nghiep hda, do thj hda nhanh,

nhanh trong thap nien vii'a qua. Theo kit qua T i n g

So 231 thing 9/2016

33


nay cd tbi din din mdt sl hau qua khdng mong dgi,
nhu: lam giam nhu ciu lao ddng ban dia, lam giam
gia nhan cdng tren thj tradng lao ddng.
Tuong ddng vdi bii canb cua Viet Nam la cac
nghien cuu vl di cu d Trang Qudc, Zhu (2002) da
sit dung md hinb toan hpc de phan tich cac nhan td,
chi ra mdt sl tac ddng din di dan ndng thdn-dd thj

nhu: (1) Tang luong can bien dd thj hoac giam
luang can bien ndng thdn, lam tang di cu to ndng
thdn ra thanh thj; (2) Co bdi viec lam duoc tao ra
nhilu d khu vyc thanh thj tac ddng manh den nhap
cu vao do thj; (3) Giam chi phi di chuyen se lam
tang di dan ndng thdn - dd thj; (4) Phat triln khu
vyc ndng thdn lam giam di dan ndng thdn - do thj.

Dilu tra Dan sl va Nha d ngay ngay 1 thang 4 nam
2009 (Ting cue Thing ke, 2010), dan sl viing Ddng
Nam Bd la 14.025.387 ngudi, chilm 16,34% dan sd
toan quic va la viing cd tic dp tang dan sd cao nhat
nudc. Lao ddng to nhilu viing, miin khac nhau tap
trang vl day vung Ddng Nam Bp da tan hudng Igi
tbi gia lao dpng re dl tang tra'dng va phat Uien kinh
tl. Ddng Nam Bp da trd thanh khu vyc kinh te phat
ttiln nhit Viet Nam, ddng gdp ban 2/3 tdng thu
ngan sach nha nudc hang nam. Trong khi ty le dd thi
boa trang binh cua ca nudc nam 2014 dat 33,9% thi
ty le dd thj boa d Ddng Nam Bp da dat 64,95%)
(Ting cue Thing ke, 2015).
Theo quy luat, nhu'ng vimg cdng nghiep hda, do
thj hda nhanh se cd site thu hiit manh ngudi nhap cu.
Ty le nhap cu thuin ciia vung Ddng Nam Bd giai
doan 2004-2009 la 127%o, gip 4 lin so vdi Tay
Nguyen, khu vuc cd ty le nhap cu thuan Idn thir hai
cua Viet Nam, gip 2 lin so vdi giai doan 1994-1999.
Trong giai doan 5 nam 2004-2009, -vung Ddng Nam
Bp da ddn 1.635 nghin ngudi nhap cu, Idn gip han
5 lin so vdi ting sl ngudi nhap cu vao Ddng bang

sdng Hing, vimg cd quy md ngudi nhap cu ldn thir
hai (289 nghin ngudi), Idn gip gin 3 lin so vdi giai
doan 1994-1999 (580 nghin ngudi) (Tdng Cue
Thing ke, 2010).
Di cu va tich to dan sl mang trong nd ca nhung
tac dpng d tim vi md ddi vdi ngudi di cu lan nhung
tac dpng d tim vT md ddi vdi phat trien viing. O tam
vi md, di cu giiip "thoa man" nhftng nhu can ve tim
kilm viec lam, thu nhap, cai thien cudc sdng. O tam
vT md, di cu cd ca tac ddng tich cue va tieu cue vdi
kinh tl, xa hpi, mdi tradng ciia viing nhap cu.
Bai viet nay md ta buc tranh tich to dan sd vao
vimg Ddng Nam Bp trong 3 thap nien trade day de
cho thay cimg vdi qua trinh cdng nghiep hoa - dd thj
boa, tich to dan sd nhanh da bien Ddng Nam Bd trd
thanh viing phat trien nhat cita Viet Nam. Sau do,
bai viet trinh bay danh gia tac ddng cua di cu, tich
tu dan sd den kinh te, xa hdi ctia vimg Ddng Nam
Bp theo y kien danh gia cua ngud'i di cu ve nhflng
tac dpng ndi tren.
2. Tong quan nghien ciru
Di dan npi dja dugc dac trang nii bat bdi lulng
di dan nong thdn - thanh thj ndi len manh tit nhung
nam 1950. Lewis (1954) da coi di dan ndng thdn dd thj la mpt bd phan cau thanh ciia qua trinh phat
trien kinh te, cung cip lyc lupng lao ddng "du thua"
ndng thdn cho nen kinh tl cdng nghiep do thj. Dilu
Sd 231 thing 9/2016

Laing & cdng sy (2005) tilp tire khing djnh
chenh lech thu nhap binh quan diu ngudi giua cac

khu vyc la ddng lyc chit ylu thiic day di eu. Nhung
anh hudng ciia lao ddng di cu dii vdi noi nhap cu
cung duac tac gia phan tich dudi cac khia canh: ty
le tim dugc viec lam d dd thj thap, ty le that nghiep
dd thj cao, giam gia nhan cdng tien thj tradng lao
dpng dd thj.
6 Viet Nam, lien quan din tac ddng cua di cu dii
vdi cdng ding noi din, nhieu nghien eun nhan
manh tim quan trpng ciia ngudi di cu trong viec bd
sung ngudn lao ddng phuc vu phat trien kinh te va
ddng gdp dang ke vao sy tang tradng eua cac do thj
va ttnng tam cdng nghiep noi hp chuyen den (Vien
nghien cira kinb tl Thanh phd Hd Chi Minh, 1996;
Dang Nguyen Anb, 1997, 1998, 1999 va 2005; Uy
ban cac van de xa hdi ciia Qudc hdi khda XI, 2005;
UN Viet Nam, 2010). Ben eanh nhung tac ddng tich
cue nay, cac nghien ciiu cflng chi ra nhftng anh
hudng tieu cyc cua di cu ddi vdi kinh te-xa hpi ciia
nai den, cu the la khd khan ttd ngai trong cdng tac
quan ly banh chinh (Dang Nguyen Anh, 1999); tang
sire ep ddi vdi be thdng co sd ha tang nhu nha d,
nudc sach, ve sinh, giao thdng di lai,... va he thdng
djch vu xa hdi nhu y te, giao dye,... (Dang Nguyen
Anh, 1999; UN Viet Nam, 2010); gia nhan cdng cua
lao dpng nhap cu thap ban dan den gia tang canh
tranh giu'a lao ddng nhap cu vdi lao ddng ban dia ve
phuang dien gia nhan cdng, ddng thdi viec tang lyc
lupng lao ddng cflng lam tang ty le that nghiep d dd
thj (Vien nghien cuu kinh te Thanh phd Hd Chi
Minli, 1996).

34

3. Phuang phap nghien ciru
Di cu va tich to dan sl nhanh din -vung Ddng
Nam Bd dugc minh chung bing cac sl lieu phan

ly'liiil trien


djnh. Mu'c 5 la mirc ddng gdp cao nhat va 1 la mirc
ddng gdp thip nhat. Phan tieh nay se thay 5 mite dp
danh gia ciia ngudi di cu bang 2 mite dp nhu sau:
mu'c 1 va mirc 2 la y kien danh gia khdng quan trpng
hay ndi eac khac la ddng gdp khdng nhieu. Mirc 3,
mu'c 4 va mirc 5 la quan trpng va rat quan trpng hay
la mire ddng gdp nhieu.

tieh to bd sl lieu cua cac cudc Tdng dieu tta Dan sd
va Nha d cae nam 1979, 1989, 1999, 2009 va Dilu
tta Dan sd giua ky thdi dilm 1/4/2014. Cac chi bao
ve quy md dan sl, ty suit nbap cu thuin ciia Ddng
Nam Bd dugc so sanh vdi cac chi bao nay cua cac
•vimg dia ly khac de lam ndi bat muc do tich to dan
sd vao Ddng Nam Bg trong vdng 30 nam sau Ddi
Mdi.

Nhirng y kien nhan djnh ciia ngudi di cu ve tac
ddng tich eye hay tieu cyc ciia nhap cu den phat
triln kinh te, xa hdi ciia noi den cd the bj anh hudng

bdi nhieu yeu td nhu cae dac trang ca nhan cua
ngudi di cu, nhflng anh hudng khach quan to ben
ngoai tdi hanh vi di cu. De cd dugc danh gia chinh
xac hon ve tac ddng "thyc" cua di cu, tich tu dan sd
tdi cac van de kinh te, xa hdi, hdi quy logistic da
bien (multinominal logistics regression) da dugc su'
dung de phan tieh nhftng nhan td anh hudng den y
kien danh gia cua ngudi di cu cflng nhu nhiing yeu
td cd the frd thanh lyc hut hoac lyc day eho cac
ddng di cu tiep theo. Phuang ttinh hdi quy dugc su
dung cd dang:

Nghien cira nay khdng danh gia tryc tiep anh
hudng cua di cu den phat trien kinh te - xa hdi ma
danh gia thdng qua y kien cua ngudi di cu ve tac
ddng tich eye va tieu cyc ciia di cu den phat trien
kinh te, xa hdi tai dja phuong noi den. Ket qua phan
tich khdng nhung phan anh nhung tac ddng thyc ctia
di cu ma edn cho biet dupe nhan thuc ciia ngudi di
cu ve boat ddng di chuyen eua minh, ddng thdi
nhflng thdng tin nay se giup udc lupng dugc ddng
lyc di cu cua hg ttong thdi gian tiep theo.
Bp du lieu ditng cho phan tich thu dugc to' dieu
tra cua Vien Dan sd va cac van de xa hdi, Tradng
Dai hpc Kinh te qudc dan thing 12 nam 2014 dudi
sy tai trg cua Quy Khoa hpc - Cdng nghe qudc gia
(Nafosted). Trong dieu tra nay, Ddng Nai va Binh
Duong la bai tinh dien hinh cua -vitng Ddng Nam Bp
dugc chgn lam dja ban nghien citu. Bang hdi ban
cau true dugc thyc hien vdi nhflng ngudi di cu to 15

- 60 todi, den bai tinh nay frong 10 nam qua, hien
dang lam viec d ea khu 'vyc chinh thirc va phi chinh
thirc. Quy md mau dugc xac djnh dua vao cdng thu'c
tinh mau khi biet tdng the mau (tdng sd ngudi di dan
den cac dja ban nghien cira theo ket qua Tdng dieu
tia Dan sd va Nha d nam 2009), vdi dp tin cay thdng
ke dat 95%). Quy md mau can thiet la 700 don vj.
Mdi tinh cd 350 ngudi di cu dugc dieu tra, trong do
khoang 70%o ngudi nhap cu den khu vyc chinh tbtic,
30%) ngudi nhap cu den khu vyc phi chinh thirc.
Phuong phap chgn man phan tang, ngau nhien he
thdng da dugc ap dung.
Tac dpng cua nbap cu, tich to dan sd nhanh den
kinh te, xa hdi d Ddng Nam Bd dupe phan tich tren
ca sd y kien danh gia cua chinh ngudi di cu ve
nhiing nhan dinh dupe neu ra (Bang I). Nhiing nhan
djnh nay dugc phat hien so bd to nghien eun djnh
tinh kham pha trade dd. Cau hdi dugc dat ra de yeu
ciu ngudi di cu lupng hda cac tac dpng la: "Theo
anh chi nhiing dong gdp cita nguai di cu theo cdc
phucmg dn di xudt du&i day a miec dp quan trgng
nhu thi ndoT Vdi mdi phuang an dugc dl xuit, 5
miie danh gia (to 1 din 5) dugc ngudi di cu xac
So 231 thing 9/2016

Log ( P; Vj )=tty+ PijXi+ PijX2+....+ Eij
Cac bien sd ddc lap dugc dua vao md hinh phan
tich hdi quy cd the chia thanh 3 nhdm nhu sau:
Nhdm 1: Cdc yen td liin quan din chinh sdch di
cu, gdm chinh sach lien quan den hd khau bd tjch,

cac chinh sach lien quan den cung cap djch -vti xa
hpi cdng nhu: dien, nudc, giao due va y te cdng...
Nhdm 2: Cdc yiu td thudc ve cpng ddng, gdm
mang ludi xa hdi, vdn xa hdi, sy phat trien kinh te
xa hdi cita dja phuang nai den (cung ve viee lam,
tiep can cac djch vn cdng nhu dien, nudc, y te, giao
due...).
Nhdm 3: Cdc yeu td thupc cd nhdn ngieai di cu
gdm: todi, gidi tinh, trinh trang hdn nhan, trinh dp
hpc van phd thdng, trinh dp chuyen mdn, tinli trang
viec lam, ITnh -vyc kinh te, noi lam viec, thu nhap,
que gdc.
4. Tich tu dan so nhanh is Dong Nam Bo
Ket qua cae Tdng dieu tra Dan sd va Nha d cac
nam 1979, 1989, 1999, 2009 va Dilu tra giua ky
nam 2014 cho thay giai doan 1979-1989, sau Tay
Nguyen, Ddng Nam Bd da la -vung cd tdc dp tang
dan sd cao nhat, 2,7%)/nam. Tich tu dan sd bat dau
dien ra d Ddng Nam Bd tit nhiing nam 1989, sau khi
Viet Nam thyc hien ehinh sach Ddi Mdi, xay dung
cac khu cdng nghiep va thu hiit dau ta nudc ngoai.
Trong 10 nam tu 1989-1999, dan sd khu 'vyc Ddng

35

IIU


Bang 1: Cac biln s6 flanh gia tac dong cua nhap cu, tich tu dan s6 nhanh
Danh gia tac dong tieu cue

Danh gia tac dong tich cue

ND

+ Gop phan vao phat frien cac nganh nghe

+ Gop phan lam tang that nghiep

+ Sau khi co thu nhap tit tilp tac tai dau ta
vln cho phat ttiln san xuit, kinh doanh
+ Gdp phin bu dip thieu hut lao dpng

2

+ Lam cho ngu'di dia phuang giau len vi co the
kinh doanh cac loai hinh dich vu (thue nha d,
thue trong tre....)
+ Phat huy hieu qua ctia he thong y te

-I- Lam qua tai he thong ha tang giao thdng

+ Phat huy hieu qua cua he thong giao due

+ Lam qua tai he thong y te

+ Mang din nai day net dep van hoa

+ Lam qua tai he thing giao due
+ Gay mit trat ta xa hpi do ngudi di cu hay gay
roi, danh nhau

+ Hay uIng ragu va lai xe gay tai nan giao
thong
+ Hay vi pham luat giao thong, di lai "bira bai"

X

+ Ngudi di cu gdp phan lam tang cac berth lay
trayin qua dudng tinh due do quan he tinh due
khong an toan
+ Ngudi di cu liy cip cua nhau gay Ion xpn xa
hoi
Bang 2. Quy mo dan s6 cac vimg 6" Viet Nam qua cae nam 1979-2014
Bon vi: Nghin ngucri
TT

1989

1999

2009

2014

8.069

10.242

11.053

11.065

11.633

1979

Viing kinh te xa hoi

1

Mien niii va trang du Bac Bp

2

Dong bang song Hong

11.445

13.784

16.834

19.578

20.649

3

Bac Trang Bp va duyen hai mien Trang

13.080

15.459

16.536

18.836

19.482

4

Tay Nguyen

1.529

2.512

4.060

5.107

5.504

5

Dong Nam Bp

6.276

7.987

11.710

14.025

15.721

6

Dong bang song Cim Long

12.341

14.428

16.131

17.179

17.501

Toan quoc

52.742

64.412

85.789

90.493

76.323

Nguon: Tdng hap tie so lieu cita Tong cue Thong ke
Nam Bd da tang to 7.987 nghin ngudi len 11.710

Mat dp dan s l vung Ddng Nam Bd da tang to 265

nghin ngudi, tdc dp tang trang binh trong giai doan

ngu'di/km^ nam 1979 len 333 ngudi/km^ nam 1989;

naylentdi4,7%)/nam. D a y l a t h d i k y m a D d n g N a m

434 ngudi/km- nam 1999 va 594 ngudi/km^ nam

Bp cd tdc dp tang tradng dan sl Idn nhit. Budc sang

2009. Nhu vay, mu'c dp tap trang dan tren mdt don

giai doan 1999-2009, quy md dan s l vimg Ddng

vj dien tich lanh tho tai 'viing nay da tang 2,23 lan

Nam Bp da tang len tdi 14.025 nghin ngudi, vdi tic

trong 30 nam, frong khi mite tang trang binh cua

dp tang trang binh 2,0%/nam. Tinh din ngay I

toan quie la 1,6 lin.

thang 4 nam 2014, quy md dan sl cua vung nay la

Tich to dan s l d Ddng Nam bp chu ylu la do

15.721 nghin ngudi, tdc dp tang dan s l trang binh

nhap cu. Trong giai doan 2004-2009, ty suit nhap

giai doan 2009-2014 la 2,23% (Bang 2 va bang 3).

cu d vung nay gip 9 lin so vdi ty suit nhap cu vao

Sd 231 thing 9/2016

35


Bang 3. T6C do tang dan s6 cac viing cua Viet Nam cac glal doan 1979-2014
Dan vi: phdn trdm
TT

19791989
26,9
20,4
18,2
64,2
27,3
16,9

22,1

Vimg kinh te xa h6i

1
2
3
4
5
6

Mien nui va trang du BSC Bp
Dong bang song Hong
Bic Trang Bp va duyen hai mien Trang
Tay Nguyen
Dong Nam Bp
Ddng bang song Cira Long
Toan quoc
Nguon: Tong hap tie so lieu cita Tong cite Thong ke

19891999
7,9
22,1
7,0
61,6
46,6
11,8
18,5

19992009

20092014

6,1
16,3

5,1
5,3
3,4
7,3
11,1
1,8
5,3

13,9
25,8
19,8
6,5
12,4

Bang 4: Ty suat di dan thuan tuy qua cac nam, cac giai doan 2004-2014
Don vi: phan nghin
2004-

2009-

1

Trang du va mien nui phia Bac

-17,5

-3,9

-3,3

-2,6

-2,3

2

Dong bang song Hong

0,5

0,9

0,2

-0,3

-8,1
0,3

3

Bac Trang Bp va duyen hai mien Trang

-1,7

-34,6

-5,7

-4,0

-4,4

-1,7

-15,0

4

Tay Nguyen

11,2

-0,3

-2,4

3,7

5

Dong Nam Bp

107,7

19,9

14,8

11,7

2,1
8,3

56,9

6

Dong bang sdng Cira Long

-40,4

-8,4

-6,5

-5,0

-4,3

-29,7

34,5

205,3

6,7

30,4

2009

2011

2013

Vung kinh te xa hoi

* Binh Duong
* Dong Nai

2010

2012

TT

314,4

74,6

42,7

48,9

60,8

16,3

22,1

12,5

2014

1,0

Nguon: Tong htyp tit so lieu cita Tong cue Thong ke
3 vimg: vung Trang du va mien nui phia Bac, 'vung
Bac Trang bd va Duyen hai mien Trang va •vung
Ddng bang sdng Cira Long (135%o so vdi I5,9%)o;
16,0%o va 16,3%oo), gap 4 lan so vdi ty suat nhap eu
cua -vung Ddng bang sdng Hdng (35%oo), tham chi
gap 3 lan ty suat nbap cu den Tay Nguyen (43,3%)o).

dau phat trien dan manh len, cung cd the do tac ddng
cua khung hoang kinh te toan cau tac ddng vao boat
ddng san xuat ndi tai cua vitng nay. Cac gia thuyet
nay se can phai dugc kiem nghiem.

Xem xet ty suat di cu thuan toy qua cac giai doan
cho thay giai doan 2004-2009, frong kbi cac vflng cd
ty suat di cu tbuan toy mang dau (-), cd nghTa la sd
ngudi xuat cu di nhieu bon sd ngudi tihap cu den, hay
ty suat nay d Tay Nguyen ehi la lI,2%oo thi ty suat

nay d Ddng Nam Bd la 107,7%)o. Dieu nay cho thay,
Ddng Nam Bd thyc sy la -viing thu hut ngudi di eu
den ldn nhat d Viet Nam. Quan sat cho thay nhflng
nam gan day ty suat di dan thuan toy den -vimg nay cd
xu hudng giam di, I9,9%)o nam 2010, giam cdn
14,8%o nam 2011; ll,7%o nam 2012 va 8,3%o nam
2013; ty suit di dan 5 nam 2009-2014 cung giam cdn
56,9%)o (Bang 4). Nguyen nhan cd the la do su:c hiit
cua vung nay da suy giam khi cae vflng khac da bit

5.1.1. Y kiin ddnh gid cua ngu&i di cu vi tdc
dpng din kinh ti

Sd 231 thdng 9/2016

5. Tac dong den cac van de Idnh te, xa hoi
5.1. Tdc dpng den kinh ti

Ve tac dpng tich cyc, khoang tren dudi 70%)
ngudi di cu dugc dieu tra da danh gia di dan lam eho
tich to dan sd nhanh, tac ddng manh den phat trien
kinb te dja phuang noi den. Theo hp, ddng gdp
manh nhat cua di cu tai vung den la giup ngudi dan
dia phuang giau len do phat trien cac djch -vu
(72,7%)), thir hai la bii dap thieu hyt lao ddng
(71,4%)), thit ba la tiep toe tai dau to vdn cho phat
trien san xuat (70,5%o) va thu' to la gdp phan phat
trien cac nganh nghe (68,5%)) (Hinh I).
Ve tac ddng tieu cyc, 68,0% ngudi duac dieu tra
da nhan djnh nhap cu lam gia tang tinh trang that

37


Hinh 1: Ty le nguoi dl cu co y kiln danh gia tac dong cua dl cudil voi phat triin kinh ti d dja phuong la quan trong
I 72.7

Lam cho nguai dja phuang giau len vi co the kinh
doanh cac loai hinh dich vu (thue nha a, thue ttong..

I 71.4

Gop phan bii dip thigu hut lao dong a nai day

~1 70.5

Gop phjn vao phat ttiin cac nganh nghe a nai day
Sau khi c6 thu nliap t6t tilp tuc tai d§u tu von cho
phatttiSnsan xuit, kinh doanh tai nai day

61.1
68.0

G6p phin lam tang thit nghiep a nai day
DOTI vi: %

Nguon: Diiu tra cUa Vien Ddn so vd cdc vdn dexd hpi (2015)
nghiep d noi din, nguy co nay dugc mdt ty le cao
(72,1%) ngudi di cu cd trinh dp chuyen mdn to thg
bac ba frd xudng danh gia quan frpng.

5.1.2. Nhiing nhdn td dnh hu&ng y kiin ddnh gid
cda nguai di cie ve tdc dpng tiri kinh ti
D I I vdi y kiln danh gia tac ddng tich cyc, ket qua
phan tich hli quy cho thay ddi togng dieu fra la can
bd quan ly va thg bac 3 trd len nhan dinh mirc dp
ddng gdp ciia hp cho kinh te d dja phuang it quan
trpng hem ngud'i di cu la lao ddng to do. Ngudi di cu
cd trinh dp chuyen mdn to thg bac 3 trd xudng lai
cho rang minh gdp phan vao phat trien kinh te d dja
phuang cao hon so vdi lao dpng to' do. Cd the thay
la tinh kha dung cua lao ddng di cu d khu vyc Ddng
Nam Bd mdi chi dupe phat huy manh ddi vdi lao
dpng cd trinh dp chuyen mdn to bac 3 trd xudng.
Xem xet cac yeu td thupc ve cdng ddng thi thay
nhiing ngudi cho rang "cac chu doanh nghiep it chii
y den dao tao cdng nhan" hay "khdng cd nhieu trang
tam day nghe" hay "he thdng benh vien tdt" lai danh
gia ddng gdp ciia ngudi di cu den kinh tl ctia dia
phuong la quan trpng. Xem xet ylu t l mang ludi xa
hdi ctia ngudi di cu cho phep nhan djnh ring, nhung
ngudi khdng dupe hoac khdng cin nhd gidi thieu
viec lam hay hd trp nha d va cac dilu kien sinh boat
khac da danh gia su dong gdp cua ngudi di cu cho
kinh te ctia dja phuang nai den quan trpng ban so
vdi ngudi di cu da dupe ngu'di di cu di tra'dc gidi
thieu viec lam, hd trp noi d.

nay cd y nghTa quan trgng ban so vdi nhflng ngudi
di cu khdng cd trinh dp chuyen mdn. Phai chang lao
ddng cd trinh dp chuyen mdn "khdng dugc trpng

dung" tai Ddng Nam Bd do ciu lao dgng cua -vimg
nay ve lao ddng cd trinh dp chuyen mdn van khdng
cao. San xuit vin chi dya tren edng nghe can nhieu
lao ddng trinh dp thip va gia luong re. N I U ngudi di
cu cd quan niem nay, hp rat de cd xu hudng rdi khdi
day di noi khac hoac quay ve que cfl. Nhflng ngudi
di cu hien dang phai lam viee tren 40 gid/toan cung
dua ra nhan djnh nay eao ban nhdm ngudi di cu chi
lam viec dudi 40 gid/toan. Nhflng ngudi lam viec
tai doanh nghiep hoac co sd lao ddng to nhan danh
gia tac dpng tieu eye cao nhat, xep hang thir hai la
nhung ngudi lam doanh nghiep d nudc ngoai. Chi
rieng nhdm ngudi lam d cac cdng ty hoac doanh
nghiep cd phan la cd y kien danh gia ngugc lai.
Nhflng ngudi di cu cho rang mdi tradng sdng khdng
tdt cung danh gia tac ddng tieu cyc cua di cu den
kinh te manh hon. Nhung ngudi khdng dugc trg
giiip tim viec lam hoac chd d hoac khdng dugc giiip
dd cho vay tien danh gia tac ddng tieu cyc ciia di cu
tdi kinh te manh hon. Xem xet cac yeu td lien quan
den boa nhap cdng ddng, nhung ngudi quen than
vdi ngudi ban dja va tham gia sinh boat cdng dpng
danh gia anh hudng tieu cyc it ban nhiing ngudi
khdng tham gia sinh boat cdng ddng.
5.2. Tdc dpng din xd hpi

Ddi vdi y kiln danh gia tac dpng neu cyc, hiu hit
nhung ngudi di cu cd trinh dp chuyen mdn cao (tii'
sa cap, cao dang, dai hpc) danh gia tac ddng tieu cyc
Sd 231 thdng 9/2016

38

5.2.1. Y kiin ddnh gid cita nguai di cu vi tdc
dpng din xd hpi
Tac dgng tieh cue v l xa hdi ciia ngudi di eu den
dja phuang noi din dugc khao sat lien quan den y


Hinh 2: Ty le ngudi dl cu co y kiin danh gia tac dong ciia dl cu
dil voi phat triin xa hoi d dja phuotig la quan trong
Mang den nai day net dep van hoa

.
49.4

Phat huy hieu qua cua he thong giao due nai day

D 53.9

Phat huy hieu qua ciia he thong y te a nai day

U 54.8

Gop phan lam tang cac benh LTQDTD do quan he

D 78.1

Lam qua tai he thong giao due noi day

] 76.8

Lam qua tai he thong y te tai noi day

D 72.4

Lam qua tai he thong ha tang giao thong

I 70.4

Hay vi pham luat giao thong, di lai "bira bai"

D 74.7

Hay uong m'oai va lai xe gay tai nan giao thong L

D 72.8

Gay mat trat tir xa hoi nai day do ngirtri di cu hay.. I

D 72.5

Nguai di cu lay cap ciia nhau gay Ion xon xa hoi i

D 35.2

Nguon: Dieu tra cita Vien Ddn so vd cdc vdn dexd hpi (2015)
te, giao dye va cae net dep ve van boa. Ket qua cho
thay mirc do tac ddng den xa hdi dugc danh gia thap
hon so vdi tac ddng ve kinh te. Ddng gdp tich cyc

ve xa hdi dugc danh gia quan trpng nhat la "ngudi
di cu giup phat huy hieu qua cua he thdng y te
(54,8%)), tiep den la "giup phat huy hieu qua ciia he
thdng giao due (53,9%))... Khoang 50% ngudi cd y
kien danh gia la ngudi di cu mang den noi mdi net
dep van hoa.
Ngudi di cu danh gia tac ddng tieu cyc cua di cu
den phat trien xa bdi d noi den manh han so vdi tac
ddng tich cyc (tren 70%o so vdi tren 50%)). "Gdp
phan lam tang cac berth lay trayen qua dudng tinh
due do cd nhflng quan he tinh due khdng an toan" la
tac ddng dupe danh gia quan trpng vdi mdt ty le cao
nhat (78,1%)). Nhdm thit hai la cac tac ddng "Lam
qua tai he thdng giao dye" (76,8%); "Lam qua tai he
thdng y te " (72,4%)). Nhdm thir ba dupe ti'en 70%o
ngudi di cu danh gia la quan trpng gdm "Hay vi
pham luat giao thdng" (74,7%); "Hay udng ragu, lai
xe gay tai nan" (72,8%) va "Gay mat trat to xa hdi
do hay gay rli, danh nhau" (72,5%)). Chi cd 35,2%)
ngudi dugc phdng van danh gia ngudi di cu da tac
ddng tieu cyc den xa hdi do "trdm cap dd cua nhau
va gay ldn xdn xa hdi"

ngudi di cu cd tac ddng den y kien danh gia. Lao
ddng to do, lao ddng trong hd gia dinh va ngu'di ed
trinh dp chuyen mdn to bac 3 trd xudng danh gia di
cu cd tac ddng tich cyc den cac ITnh -vyc xa hdi
manh hon nhfl'ng ngu'di cd trinh dp chuyen mdn va
nghe nghiep cao. Ket qua nay cho thay chi cd nhiing
ngudi di cu cd trinh dp hpc van, chuyen mdn, nghe

nghiep cao mdi nhin thay "ap lyc" ctia di cu ddi vdi
xa hpi d noi den. Vdi nhan thitc nay, quyet djnh di
cu cua nhung ngudi cd trinh dp hpc van, chuyen
mdn, nghe nghiep cao se "khd khan" hon. Nhung
ngudi cd thu nhap cang cao thi danh gia anh hudng
tich cyc cua di cu den xa hdi d nai den cang cao.
Lien quan den yeu td quan niem xa hdi, nhiing
ngudi di cu cho la cd it nha may cdng trudng, it
cdng ty nudc ngoai d dja phuang noi den lai danh
gia di cu ddng gdp tich cyc cho phat trien xa hdi cao
hon. Nhflng ngudi cho rang djch vy cupc sdng d nai
den ehua tdt danh gia ddng gdp cua di cu vao cac tac
ddng xa hdi mang tinh tich cue cao hon, vi chinh hg
da gdp phan cai thien dich -vu cudc sdng tai noi den.

ddnh gid

Lien quan den yeu td mang ludi xa hdi, nhiing
ngudi di cu duac trp giup ve chd d hay nhflng ngudi
khdng can trg giup tam ly, khdng can trg giiip ve an
ninh danh gia ddng gdp tich cyc cua di cu den phat
trien xa hdi d noi den manh ban.

Ve y kien ddnh gid tdc dpng tich cue, kit qua
phan tich hdi quy cho thay ngbl nghiep hien tai cua

Lien quan den yeu td hoa nhap xa hdi, nhiing
ngudi kem hda nhap vdi cdng ddng nai den lai danh
gia ddng gdp tich cyc ctia di cu tdi phat trien xa hdi

5.2.2. Nhirng nhdn td dnh hied-ngykiin
ciia nguai di cu vi tdc dpng tai xd hpi

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39

III!


manh hon. Cd thi do kem hda nhap cdng ddng, den kinh tl, xa hdi cua dja phuang. Tac ddng tich
thieu thdng tin ma ngudi di cu cho rang hp lam phat eye ve kinh te dugc danh gia manh ban tac ddng ve
huy hieu qua ciia he thdng y te va giao due tai noi xa hdi. Theo y kiln eua khoang 2/3 ngudi di eu,
din. Thyc tl, tai vung Ddng Nam Bd he thdng giao ddng gdp manh nhat cua di cu tai vimg den la giiip
due dang chju nhiing "ap luc" to tich tu dan sd ngudi dan dja phuang giau len do phat tiien cae
nhanh. Nhieu tradng tieu hpc, trang hpe ca sd phai djch -vy, tiep den la bii dap thieu hyt lao ddng, sau
hpc 3 ca lien tac hoac phai nang sy sd hpc sinh cho khi cd thu nhap tit va In djnh cudc sdng, ngudi di
mdt Idp.
cu lai dung vln tiet kiem tiep toe tai dau to vdn eho
Ve y kiin ddnh gid tdc dpng tiiu cue, trong nhdm phat triln san xuat va gdp phan phat trien cac nganh
yeu td thudc dac trung nhan khau hpc, chi cd bien nghi. Mdt gdc dp nao dd, di cu den cflng giiip phat
sd "nai lam viec" la cd y nghTa thdng ke. Nhung huy hieu qua he thdng y te noi den, giup phat huy
danh gia tac dpng tieu cyc den xa hdi ciia ngudi di hieu qua cua he thdng giao due vdi nhieu loai hinh
cu Idn nhat la d nhdm ngudi lao ddng to do va lao giao dye dugc md ra de dap img nhu cau hpc tap eiia
dpng gia dinb, trong khi cdng nhan va can bd quan ngudi dan. Khoang mgt nira sd ngudi cho rang
ly lam viec trong cac khu cdng nghiep danh gia anh ngu'di di cu mang den noi mdi net dep van boa.
hudng tieu cue ve xa hdi it hon.
Tuy nhien, ben eanh dd, khoang hon 2/3 sd ngudi
Trong nhdm cac yeu td lien quan den quan diem cho rang ngudi di cu gdp phan lam tang cac benh
ve phat trien kinh te, xa hdi va cdng ddng, neu ngudi lay trayen qua dudng tinh due do cd nhung quan he

di cu cho la "khdng dupe chu doanh nghiep quan tinh due khdng an toan; lam qua tai he thdng giao
tam dao tao" danh gia tac ddng tieu cyc cua ngudi due; lam qua tai be thdng y te; hay vi pham luat giao
di cu den xa hdi ldn hon. Nhung ngudi cd quan thdng; hay udng ragu, lai xe gay tai nan; gay mit
diem "djch vu cudc sdng d nai den tdt va cd nhilu
trat to xa hdi do hay gay rdi, danh nhau. Chi co
khu vui choi giai tri" hay "he thing berth vien va y
khoang 1/3 ngudi di cu danh gia ngudi di cu da tac
te xa/phudng tdt" da cho rang ngudi di cu cd anh
dpng tieu eye den xa hdi do trdm eip dl eua nhau
huong tieu cue den cac van de xa hdi d mite thip.
va gay ldn xdn xa hdi d noi eu tni mdi.
Lien quan den mang ludi xa hpi, nhdm ngudi di
6.2. Hdm y chinh sdch
cu khdng nhan dugc dupe hd trp vl nha d va cac trg
Tit cac ket luan tren, nhdm nghien cuu dl xuit
giiip khac danh gia tac ddng cua ngudi di cu din xa
hpi theo hudng tieu cyc nhieu ban. Nhung ngudi mdt sd ham y chinh sach sau:
can sy trg giup ve tam ly danh gia ngudi di cu mang
Can tinh toan cac ddng lyc di cu gifla cae vimg va
den nhieu anh hudng tieu cue cho xa hpi hon nhflng nhap cu vao Ddng Nam Bd trong thdi gian tdi dl
ngudi khdng can su trg giup nay. Nhdm ngudi xay dyng kl hoach va chinh sach sit dung lao ddng
khdng nhan dugc su trp giup vl an ninh, tranh xam phil hgp vdi cac muc tieu phat triln kinh tl - xa hpi
pham danh gia di cu cd anh hudng tieu cue din xa chung cda dat nudc va cua vung Ddng Nam Bd.
hdi manh nhat. Nhung ngudi di cu cd quan he than
Tao dieu kien de ngudi lao ddng nbap cu din dja
thilt vdi ngudi dan ban dja danh gia di cu it cd anh
phuong
cd the hda nhap cdng ding thdng qua viec
hudng tieu cyc tdi xa hpi ban.
van ddng hp tham gia sinh hoat ddng ding va trg

6. Kit luan va mgt sl ham y chinh sach
giup td chitc cac cudc giao luu giita ngudi dan dja
6.1. Kit luan
phuang va ngudi di cu.
Ddng Nam Bp la vung cd tic dp do thj hda, cdng
Uy ban nhan dan va Sd Lao ddng ciia cac
nghiep hda va miic dp tich to dan sl nhanh nhit tinh/thanh phd ddn tiep lao ddng cin lien he vdi cac
trong ca nudc trong nhung nam vita qua. Mtt'c dp
doanh nghiep de nim bit nhu ciu lao ddng thyc tl
tich tu dan sl vao vung Ddng Nam Bp diln ra manh
va thanh lap cac trang tam gidi thieu viec lam cung
nhat vao giai doan 2004-2009. Budc sang giai doan
cap thdng tin nay den rdng rai ngudi lao ddng ndi
2009-2014, mirc dp tich ta dan sl cd xu hudng giam
chung va lao ddng di eu. Cin thanh lap cac co quan,
dan song van din diu cac vung trong ca nudc.
bd phan cdng tac xa hdi dl dap img nhu ciu trg giup
Dudi gdc nhin cua chinh ban than ngudi di cu, tam ly va bao ve anb ninh cho ngudi lao dgng ndi
ngudi dieu din nhilu da gdp phin tac dpng tich cyc chung va ngudi di eu mdi ndi rieng. O
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Ldi thira nhSn/cam on: Nghien cuu nay dugc tai trg bdi Quy Phat triln Khoa hgc va Cdng nghe qudc gia
(NAFOSTED) trong d l tai ma s l II.6.2-2012.01
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