Báo cáo "Khủng hoảng nợ công ở châu Âu: nguyên nhân và tác động đến Việt Nam. " potx

KHUNG HOnNG NO CONG O
CHRU
RU:
NGUV€N NHfiN Vfi TRC
DdNG
DCN
VICT
NRM
TS.
Nguyen Kim Chi
Vu Quynh Loan
hpc
Kinh te - Dai hoc Quoc gia Hd Noi
Dai
Sau con ldc khung hodng tdi chlnh todn
cau nam 2008, trong khi Hoa Ky vd nhieu
qudc gia khde van cdn dang phdi chdng chpi
vdi suy thodi kinh te, ldn sdng khiing hoang
ng cdng d chau Au lai ndi len vd trd thdnh
van de nghiem trgng, de dpa tdi su dn dinh
ciia
nen kinh te the gidi.
1.
No"
cong va nguon goc cua khung
hoang
no*
cong
Theo nhd kinh te Mankiw, khi chfnh
phii chi nhieu ban thu, chfnh phu se phdi di
vay de tdi trg cho thdm hut ngan sdch. Tdng

gid tri tfch
Iiiy
ciia cdc khodn vay dugc ggi la
ng cdng hay ng cua chfnh
phii'
Ng cdng bao
gdm ng trong nudc do chfnh
phii
vay cua dan
cu, td chiic trong nudc vd ng nudc ngodi do
chfnh phu vay cua cdc cd nhan, td chiic hay
chfnh phil nudc ngodi.
Chfnh phil vay tien thdng qua cdc hinh
thiic nhu phdt hdnh cdng trdi, trdi phieu, hiep
dinh tfn dung Lai suat ddi vdi cdc khodn
ng cdng thudng khde nhau theo timg qudc
gia. Lai suit phu thudc vdo cdc thda thuan vd
dilu kien kinh tl, xa hdi vd khd nang tra ng
cua mdi qudc gia. Nhiing qudc gia cd dilu
kien kinh te xa hdi kem dn djnh cd the ehju
/
>
'
lai suat vay cao hon nhieu so vdi cdc qudc
gia cd dieu kien kinh te - xa hdi dn djnh.
Mdt qudc gia bi coi la cd nguy co vd ng
neu ng cdng
ciia
qudc gia dd vugt qud
miic

"gidi ban an todn" Tren the gidi, mdt sd tieu
chf sau dugc sir dung ldm gidi ban an toan:
ng cdng khdng vugt qud 50-60%) GDP hoac
khdng vugt qud
150%)
kim ngach xuat khau;
dich vu trd ng cdng khdng vugt qud
15%
kim
ngach xuat khau vd khdng vugt qud
10%)
chi
ngan sdch Mdt trong nhiing tieu chuan theo
quy dinh ve
miic
gidi ban an toan ng cua
Lien minh Chdu Au
Id
ty le ng chfnh
phii/GDP
khdng vugt qud
60%)^
Nhieu td
chirc qudc te cho rdng ty le ng cdng hgp ly
ddi vdi cdc qudc gia dang phdt trien nen d
miic
dudi 50%). Song tren thuc te, khdng cd
miic
gidi ban an todn ng chung cho cdc nen
kinh te

khde
nhau.
Miic
an todn ng cdng phu
thudc vdo
sir
phdt trien kinh te cua mdi qudc
gia vd tdc do tang GDP cua qudc gia dd. Mdt
^
Ng
cdng vd qudn
ly ng
edng
d
Vi^t
Nam.

gonNgu=VN&id ThucDon_Sub=200&TinChinh
=0&id
TinTuc=1709&TrangThai=BanTin
^ Debt-to GDP
ratio
ratio
44
NGHIEN CLfU CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW
N°09 (132).2011
sd qudc gia cd the cd ty lc ng cdng/GDP
vugt qua 50%) song van dugc coi
Id
an todn

do
sir
phdt trien kinh te manh me vd tdc dp
tang GDP cao. Ngugc lai, mdt sd qudc gia cd
ty le ng cdng/GDP dudi
miic
50%) song van
roi vao tinh trang kem an todn ve
ng''
Vi
vay, gidi ban an todn ng cdng can dugc xem
xet trong mdi lien be vdi cdc chi tieu kinh tl
vT md
klidc
vd cdc chi tieu nhu co ciu ng
cdng, CO cau lai suat, thdi ban ng, ty trgng
cdc loai ng
Tinh trang vd ng xdy ra khi chfnh phu
cua mdt nudc khdng the hodn trd cdc khodn
ng cdng day
dii
vd diing ban. Nlu nhiing
ngudi cho vay bdt ddu nghi ngd khd ndng trd
ng cua chfnh
phii,
hg se yeu cau mdt
miic
lai
suat (hay lgi tuc trdi philu) cao hon dl
bii

dap cho
riii
ro vd ng. Viec tdng lai suit hay
lgi tlic trdi phieu mdt cdch dot ngdt cd
thi
dugc ggi la khiing hodng ng cdng. Chinh phu
cdc qudc gia se rat de roi vao tinh trang
khiing hodng ng cdng khi hg dua qud nhilu
vdo viec vay mupn bode phdt hdnh trdi philu
ngdn ban.
Thuc chat, khung hoang ng cdng xuit
phdt tir van de mat can ddi giiia thu vd chi
ngan sdch qudc gia. Chi tieu ngan sdch tdng
manh va cdc ngudn thu (chu yeu tir thul)
tang khdng kip vdi nhu cau chi khien cho
ngan sach tham thiing ndng ne. Tham hut
ngdn sdch keo dai khien ng cdng gia tang.
Khung hodng ng cdng xdy ra d mdt sd qudc
gia la ket qud cua cdc dieu kien bat lgi vl
kinh te nhu lai suat tdng cao, gid tri hang hda
Xem chu thfch 2.
xuit khiu gidm va nhiing
cii
sdc tren thi
trudng the
gidi.
Dc giai quyet tinh trang bat can doi
ngan sdch, cac qudc gia vay ng cd the
lira
chpn mdt trong hai bien phdp: Mgt

Id,
giam
nhap khau, dp dung cdc bien phap tdi khoa
vd tien te thdt chat. Hai
Id,
vay them cac
khodn ng mdi vdi lai suat cao ban de thanh
todn cho cdc khodn ng ddo ban. Cd hai bien
phdp nay deu cd tdc ddng tieu cue ddi vdi
X t •y f
nen kinh te. Nhieu qudc gia da
lira
chpn bien
phdp thu hai ldm cho tinh trang ng nan cang
trd nen nghiem trgng. Den khi cdc qudc gia
dd khdng cdn khd ndng thanh todn ng cho
cdc chil ng nudc ngodi, tat yeu se xdy ra
kliiing
hodng ng cdng.
Ngodi cdc nguyen nhan khdch quan do
nhiing bien ddng cua
nin
kinh tl
thi
gidi,
khiing hodng ng cdng cdn
xuit-phdt
tir phia
cdc nudc vay ng do viec sir
dimg

ngudn von
vay kem hieu qud, diu tu vdo cdc
ITnh
vuc cl
phieu va bat dgng sdn gay ra tinh trang bong
bdng kinh te. Khi cdc bong bdng ndy vd, gia
cd philu vd bit ddng sdn sut gidm khiln
nin
kinh te rai vao tinh trang khd khdn va cac
chfnh phil khdng
thi
trd dugc ng. Ben canh
dd, khiing hodng ng ciing cd
thi
xdy ra do
cdc chinh sdch kinh tl vT md kem hieu qua
ciia
qudc gia vay ng.
Gan day, ldn sdng khung hodng ng cdng
d chau Au va mgt sd qudc gia khac tren
thi
gidi phan ldn xuit phdt tir
sir
gia tang manh
cua chi tieu ngan sdch (chi boat ddng cua bo
mdy chfnh
phii,
cdc chuang trinh kinh tl xa
hdi,
phiic lgi cdng cdng, diu tu ca sd ha ting .

3Chu$m,
hedntj^
ito'
edntp
o'
elidu
c/lu
45
va dac biet la cbi tieu cbo cac chuang trinh
kich thich kinh te trong khimg hoang tai
chinh toan cau ndm 2008). Ben canh dd, su
kiem soat chi lieu va quan ly ng
ciia
chinh
phil thieu chat che vd kem
bieu
qua, kem
theo tinh trang that thodt, lang phi trong diu
tu va chi tieu, te tham nhung dang gia tdng d
nhieu nudc. Trong khi dd, cac ngudn thu,
dac biet la thu tir thue giam do nhilu loai
thue bi cat giam theo cac thda thuan thuang
mai ty do va
vice
quan ly thu thue cdn nhieu
bat cap.
2.
Truong hop
no"
cong

6"
Hy Lap va
Ailen
1.
Tru'dng hap Hy
Lgp
Hy Lap vdn la mdt trong nhirng nen
kinh te tang trudng nhanh bac nhat trong khu
vuc ddng EUR nhirng
nam
gan day vdi tdc
dp binh quan (2000-2007) khoang 4,2% so
vdi mirc trung binh 3,1%)
ciia
khu vuc ddng
EUR. Nen kinh te phdt trien tdt vd lgi
tiic
trdi
phieu giam do viec gia nhap Lien minh Chau
Au da cbo phep chinh
phii
Hy Lap thuc hien
bdi chi ngan sdch ldn de tai trg cho cdc
chuong trinh phiic lgi xa hdi. Them vdo dd,
tiet kiem trong nudc sut giam nhanh chdng
dan den dau tu trong nudc phu thudc kha
nhieu vao cdc ngudn vdn tir ben ngodi. Tir
ndm
1993,
ty le ng chfnh

phii
tren GDP
thudng xuyen d
miic
tren
100%).
Tir khi Hy
Lap gia nhap Lien minh Tien te Chau Au
nam
2001
den ndm 2007, ng cdng cua qudc
gia nay tang tir
11-13
ty EUR/ndm. Rieng
ndm 2004, ng cdng
ciia
chinh phu Hy Lap
tang khoang
19
ty EUR do cdng tac chuan bi
cho Olympic.
Ndm 2008, khiing hodng tai chinh toan
cau biing nd da gay ra nhung tac ddng manh
mc ddi vdi cac nganh kinh te chu chdt
ciia
Hy Lap. Cdc ngdnh du
Hcb
va ddng tau deu
bi thiet hai nang ne do khiing hoang vdi
doanh thu gidm khoang 15% trong ndm

2009.
De ddi phd vdi khiing hoang, chfnh
phil Hy Lap da vay khoang 58 ty EUR cbo
cac chuang trinh kich thich kinh te. Vd lan
dau tien ke tir khi gia nhap khu vuc ddng tien
chung chau Au, ng cdng
ciia
Hy Lap tfnh
bang % GDP tdng trd lai, keo theo lai suat
cho vay ciing tang len.
Trong mdt thdi gian khd ddi, chinh phu
Hy Lap da nguy tao cdc bao cdo kinh te
trong nudc, sdp xep lai cdc giao dich nhdm
che giau cdc khodn ng khdng
Id,
ddi phd vdi
cdc yeu cdu cua Ngan hdng Trung uong
Chau Au (ECB) de cd the tiep tuc vay vd chi
tieu nhieu ban. Van de cua khiing hoang ng
cdng tai Hy Lap
Id
ng vay nudc ngoai chiem
ty le ldn. Ty le trdi phieu do nudc ngodi ndm
giii theo udc tfnh cd the len tdi 80% tdng
khdi lupng trdi phieu chinh
phii
phdt hdnh.
Ngdy 27 thdng 4 nam 2010, td chiic
Standard & Poor's da xep hang ng cua Hy
Lap vdo miic BB+, tire la d mirc "nguy

hiem" Standard & Poor's udc tfnh, nlu Hy
Lap bi vd ng thi cdc nhd dau tu se mit tdi
30-50%o gid tri tdi sdn cua minh. Ngay sau dd
lgi tlic trdi phieu cua chfnh
phii
Hy Lap da
tdng manh. Sau Standard & Poor's, hai td
chiic xep hang uy tin khde la Fitch vd
46
NGHIEN CLfU CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW
N°09
(132).20n
Mood>
's cung giang ciip
mirc
dp tin
nhicMn
cua
11\
Lap xudng lam cho lgi
lire
trai phieu
chinh phu Irong nam 2010 Uing
ICMI
VC ca gia
Iri lu\ci
ddi va luang ddi so \di
irai phieu
chinh phu
Dire.

NguN'
2 thang 5 nam 2010, mdt thda
lluian \c
\a\'
ng giua
Il>'
Lap
vii ciic
qudc gia
khac
Ihupc
khu \uc ddng
illR
\di Quy Tiln
lc Quoc lc dugc lhdng qua. Thda thuan bao
gdm khoang 45 ly
i;UR
cho
Ily
Lap vay
nga\
lap
tire
Irong nam
2010,
va se cap
thC'in
trong tuang lai. Tdng gid tri
ciia
gdi

ciiu
tro
cho Hy Lap la khoang
110
ty EUR da dugc
chap thuan. Lai suat cho khodn vay nay
khoang 5%, dugc xem la d mirc tuong
dii
cao so vdi cdc gdi ciru trg lhdng thudng. Tuy
nhien,
gdi ciru trg nay khdng
dii
xoa
dju
nhung lo lang
ciia
cac nha dau tu nudc
ngoai. Thi trudng chiing khoan chau Au va
I loa
Ky ngay sau dd da sut giam manh. Trai
phieu cLia Ily
Lap dugc giao dich d mirc rat
thap.
////;// /;
Ty le
no
chinh
phii
tren GDP cua Hy Lap
tir

nam 1970-2010
(%J
lOJO lO/S
I'jiSO
l.DSh>
lOOO 2DOS 2000
2
2007
ao5";j<:.
OOS 2010
Nguon: EC,
IMF'
http://\v\v\v.cconomicsinpictiires.com/2QI
l/09/!jrctA:dcbtgdj>onlv-22-in-19Sn
html
DCItdng hodn(i mf
edntj^
/)'
ehdn cflu
47
Nguyen nhan
ciia
cudc khimg hoang nay
xuat phdt tir nhieu yeu td, bao gdm cac ylu
td ben trong va cac yeu td ben ngoai.
Thir nhdt. khimg hoang ng cdng d Hy
Lgp chu yeu do thdm hut ngdn sdch keo ddi.
Tir nam 2001 den 2007, tang tnrdng kinh lc
Hy Lap kha cao. dugc thiic
dC\\

chu
yeu
bang
each tang
lieu
dimg ca nhiin (lhdng qua
vice
tiep can cac ngudn tin dung mdt each dc
dang)
\a
dau lu cdng dugc lai trg bdi EU \'a
chinh phil trung uang. Trong 7 nam nin.
trong khi chi lieu
ciia
chinh
phii
tang khoang
87%
thi thu nhap chi tang 31%, dan
den
tham hut ngan sach cao ban
rai nhieu
so vdi
miic
gidi ban 3% GDP
ciia
EU. Cac nha kinh
Hinh
2: Thu nhap va chi tieu chinh
lc cho rdng, quan ly tai chinh cdng

kem hieu
qua chinh la
nguyen
nhan sau xa dan
den
tinh trang tham hut ngan sach d
Ily
Lap. Sau
khimg hoang tai chfnh nam 2008,
nhieu
nganh kinh tc giam
siit,
nen kinh le Ily Lap
phai ddi mat vdi rat nhieu khd khan, thu
ngan sach giam, trong khi chinh
phii
lai phai
lang cudng chi tieu cdng de kich
ihich
kinb
lc.
Tinh
den
dau nam
2010,
ng cdng
ciia Ily
Lap da
ICMI
tdi xap xi 143% GDP Vay ng

nudc ngoai cho chi lieu cdng lang manh,
ddng thdi tiet kiem trong nudc thap dan
den
su phu thudc
ciia ncMi
kinb tc
I Iy
Lap vao cac
chil
ng nudc ngoai. dd la mdt van de ldn
ciia
Hy Lap.
phu Hy Lap, 1988-2009 (% GDP)
>:>
50
45
40
35
30
25
00 c>
o —
00 00
c>
c^
OS
C>
0^
C^
Ol

r^i
•^ •/'i
vO
1^
Q^
^ ^ ^ ^
Q^
Q^ Q\ Q\ Q\
0\
O^
OOOO
—
(Nr-i'a-iriot^ooo
0^0-0000000000
O^C^OOOOOOOOOO
—
—
(N M (N ri (N n n (N (N
r)
-•—Chi tieu
Doanh thu
Ngudn: Uy ban Chdu Au.
Thir hai,
sir
gidm tinh cgnh tranh cita
nen kinh te. Cdc nha kinh te cho rang mirc
luang cao vd san lugng thap mdt each tuang
ddi so vdi mdt sd qudc gia khac chfnh la
nguyen nhan chu yeu Theo mdt nghien ciru,
mirc luong cua Hy Lap da tdng trung binh

khoang 5% mdt nam tir khi nudc nay gia
nhap khu
virc
ddng tien chung chau Au vao
nam 2001, cao hon khoang 2 lan so vdi mirc
trung binh
ciia
khu vuc. Trong ciing thdi ky.
xuat khau
ciia
Hy Lap tdi cac ddi tac thuang
mai chfnh
ciia
minh tdng trudng khoang
3,8%
mdt nam, chi bang mdt nira so vdi ty le
tang trudng nhap khau
eiia
cac qudc gia nay
vdi cac ddi tac thuang mai chinh khac.
Ngoai ra, mirc lam phat cao cung la mdt
48
NGHIEN CLfU CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW
N°09 (132).2011
trong cac
nguyen
nhan lam giam tinh canh
tranh
ciia
hang hda Hy Lap ddi vdi cdc qudc

gia khac, dac biet la cdc qudc gia trong cimg
LiCMi
minh Chau Au.
Tii'
khi gia nhap khu
vuc ddng
lien
chung chau Au
den
nay, lam
phat
ciia
Hy Lap ludn cao ban
inu'c
trung
binh
ciia
loan khu vuc.
BCMI
canh dd, can can
lai khoan vang lai ngay cang tham thiing
nang nc. Trudc nam 2004, tham but can can
thanh loan d mirc khoang tir 10-12 ty
USl)/nani ncMi Ily
Lap cd the tai trg cho
khoan tbam but nay mdt
each
dc dang. Tuy
nhien, sau nam 2006, tham but ben ngodi
tang

\ul
len tdi 52 ty USD vdo 2008, tdng
gap 5 lan so vdi trudc ndm 2004.
Thir ba, khd ndng liep can vdi ngudn
vdn mt ddi cita EU ciing
Id
mat nguyen nhdn
quan trgng ddn den khdi ng nudc ngodi cita
Hy Lgp ngdy cdng cao. Sau khi tbam gia khu
vuc ddng tien chung chau Au
nam
2001, Hy
Lap va mdt sd qudc gia EU khac de dang vay
d muc lai suat uu dai han so vdi cac nudc d
ben ngoai khu vuc EU cho ngan sach qudc
gia \a tra cac khoan ng cii. Tren thuc te, cac
ngan hang
ciia
nudc ngoai nam
giii"
den 75%
tdng ng cdng
ciia
Hy Lap. Trudc khi khimg
hoang lai chinh xay ra, vice dua vao cac
ngan hang nudc ngodi sc tao dieu kicn de
dang ban cho viec vay ng. Nhung sau khiing
hoang, dieu nay lai gay dp
lire
rat ldn len van

de tra ng vd gia ban ng. Cdc ngan hang trong
nudc sau khi dugc bao lanh bdi cdc khoan
vay
ciia
chinh
phii
lai tien banh md rdng cho
vay tieu diing, do dd tbam hut vdi ben ngoai
cdng them tram trpng.
Ngodi ra, mdt sd yeu td nhu cdc van de
bit on trong nudc
ciia
Hy Lap (tc tham
nhung, viec quan ly khu vuc cdng kem hieu
qua, bao luc chinh tri, v.v ) vd cdc yeu to
ben ngodi nhu su thieu chat cbc trong quy
dinh vl tai chinh
ciia
EU (nhu Cdng udc On
dinh vd Phat tricn) khien cho van de ng cong
cua Hy Lap khdng ngirng tdng
len
vd tat yeu
din
den
mat khd ndng tra ng.
2.
Tru'dng hgp Ailen
Neu
nhu khiing hoang ng

ciia
Hy Lap co
nguyen
nhan tir
sir yeu
kem
ciia
boat dpng
qudn tri tai chinh cdng vdi nhiing khodn chi
lieu khdng
Id
cua chinh
phii
vugt qua kha
ndng kicm soat, thi khiing hodng ng cdng cua
Ailen lai bdt ngudn tir
\ice
quan ly khu
\uc
lai chinh kem hieu qua.
Sau khi gia nhap khu \Lrc ddng tien
chung EUR vdo ndm 1999, nen kinh te
ciia
Ailen budc vdo thdi ky tdng trudng khong
ben
\irng.
Mirc luang d
,\ilen
tir 1997 den
2007 tdng nhanh hon

miic
trung binh cua
chau Au gan 5 lan. Tdc do tang trudng kinh
tc nhanh cimg \di lai suit thip da khien cho
Ailen dau tu qua nhieu vao khu \
ire
tai chinh
bang each
\
ay ng cua nudc ngoai, dan den
sir
bimg nd tin dung. Ciing trong thai ky nay.
bong bdng nhd dit bit diu xuit hien. Tir nam
1997
den 2006, gid nha dit d Ailen da tang
khoang 90%) so vdi 28%) d Tdy Ban Nha va
20%) d My. Do thu nhap tir thul tang len
dang ke nen ngan sdch chinh phu thdng du d
mirc trung binb 1,6% GDP trong khoang 10
ndm, tir
1997 din
2007
DUiunq.
hodng,
nt)'
edng
/)'
e/ida
c/la
49

Nam 2008, do tac ddng
ciia
cudc khiing
hoang tai chinh loan cau. tdc dp tang trudng
kinb te
ciia
Ailen da giam manh. Tdc dp tang
GDP gidm tir 5,8% trong nam 2007 xuong
cdn -3,4%) nam 2008 va -7.6% trong nam
2010.
Nguyen nhan
ciia
suy thoai kinb tc d
Ailen
chii
yeu la do cau trong nudc giam
manh. Cudi ndm
2010,
san lirgng
ciia Ailen
giam
14%
tii"
khi bat dau cudc khimg hoang.
Khu
\Lic
tdi chinh bi tdc ddng
tbaiii
cbi cdn
manh ban. Cac ngan bang

ciia
Ailen ngay
cang phai ganh nhieu ng xau sau khi da tang
cho
\a\'
qua manh trong thdi ky kinh tc tang
trudng manh vd bong bdng bat ddng san
phinh to. Den khi thi trudng
bai
dpng san sup
dd. nhieu khoan cho \ay bat ddng
san'bien
thanh ng xau
\
a cac ngan bang dirng trudc
nguy ca vd ng. Thua
Id
cua cac ngan hang
trong nam 2010 udc tinh khoang 35 ty EUR
bay 20% GDP. trong dd rieng ngan hang
qudc doanh Anglo Irish tuyen bd thua
Id
mdt
khoan 12.7 ty EUR, ldn nhat trong ljch sir
Ailen.
Chinh phil Ailen budc phai giai ciru he
thdng ngan hang bang cdc bien phap ddc
biet. bao gdm vice bam them
tien
cho cac

ngan hang, dam bao vdi ngudi gui va cac
chil ng
ciia
cde ngan hang chinh va mua lai
cac khodn ng xau. Ndm 2009, chinh
phii
Ailen lap ra mdt dinh cbc tai chinh mdi gpi
la NAMA (National Asset Management
Agency)
de nhan hau bet cac khoan ng xau
ciia
cac ngan hang ldn trong nude. Cac bien
phap
cii'u
trg nganh ngan hang da dat mdt
ganh nang ldn cbo ngan sdch
ciia
chinh
phii.
Chi phi de dn dinh khu vuc tai chinh trong
nam 2009 chilm khoang 13,9% GDP, mirc
cao nhal trong sd cac qudc gia phat trien. San
lugng giam va tinh trang that nghiep gia tang
da lam cho thu nhap tir thue nam 2009 giam
khoang
11,6%.
Chi lieu thuc te
ciia
chfnh
phil, mac

dii
dugc giii dn dinh so vdi GDP,
nhung lai cd tdc dp tdng nhanh so vdi cac
qudc gia EU
klidc.
Tat ca cac yeu td nay da
dan den ngan sdch chinh
phii
trong nam 2009
tham hut d
miic
14,8%
GDP
Ng nude ngoai
sau khi da trir di cdc bao lanh cho khu vuc tai
chinh da tang tir 25% GDP trong nam 2007
len den 94% vao nam
2010.
Nhu vay, khiing
hoang ngan hang d Ailen da thuc
sir
trd
thanh mdt cudc khimg hoang ng nudc ngoai.
Hinh
3'.
Ty lc
no"
chinh
phii/GDP ciia Ailen
tii"

nam 1996 den nam 2010
Q
SO
g-
so
O
199.^
199G
J.99S
2
OOO
200-4 200G
2008 ZOIO
2012
Ngudn:
ECB^

50
NGHIEN CLfU CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW
N°09 (132).2011
Sau nhieu lan tri hoan, cudi ciing chinh
phil Ailen da phai vien tdi gdi ciru trg khan
cip cua
F.U
va
IMF
trj gid 85 ty EUR, hay
115
ty USD, vdi lai suit khoang 5,8%/nam.
Cung gidng nhu

Ily
Lap, gdi ciru trg nay di
kem \di mdt sd dieu kien nhu cdt giam chi
tieu
chinh
phii,
cat giam luong huu
ciia
khu
vuc cdng, tdng thul doanh nghiep, vd tdng ty
le du trir bat bude
ciia
cac ngan hang.
Nhin chung, khimg hoang ng
ciia
Ailen
la do chinh
phii
nudc nay phai ciru trg cho
he
thing ngan hang trudc nguy co sup dd, khiln
ng xau
ciia
khu vuc tu nhan biln thanh gdnh
ndng
ciia
ngan sdch chfnh
phii
vd chfnh
phii

khdng dil khd ndng trd ng da phdi ciu vien
tdi EU vd IMF de tiep tuc ciru nguy cbo cdc
ngan hang. Nhirng nguyen nhan sau xa cua
cudc khiing hodng ng nay bao gdm:
Thir nhdt,
sir
phinh lo cita bong bdng
bdt ddng sdn. Trong nhiing ndm 2000, cimg
vdi tdng trudng kinh tl manh me, thu nhap
cua ngudi dan tang cao vd ty le thit nghiep
thap.
Dieu nay da khuyin khich nhilu ngudi
mua nhd va sdng rieng d tudi rit tre. Mat
khac,
lai suat di vay gidm
lien
tuc tir sau nam
1983 cung gdp phan thuc day cdc cdng ty
vay tien ddu tu xay dung vd ngudi dan vay
tien de mua nha, dan
din sir
biing nd cua
ngdnh xay dung. Tdng sd lugng nhd d sau
mdt thdi gian tdng dan din tir 1,2 trieu ndm
1991
din
1,4 trieu ndm 2000, da dot ngdt
tdng len tdi 1,9 trieu vdo ndm 2008. Ndm
2007,
ngdnh xay dung chilm khodng 13,3%)

cdng dn viec ldm ca nudc,
miic
cao
nhit
trong sd cdc qudc gia OECD vd cao ban cac
nudc khac khodng 5%. Gid bat ddng san
dugc day len gap bdn lan so vdi thdi ky
trudc dd, sd lugng nhd cira dugc xay dung
cung tdng vugt qud so vdi nhu cdu thuc le
ciia
ngudi dan.
Thir hai, su qudn ly yeu kem ddi vdi
he
thdng ngdn hdng. Nguy ca vd ng
ciia
cac
ngan hang Ailen hien nay cd the ndi la hau
qua true tiep
ciia
hoat ddng cho vay qud mirc
ddi vdi dau tu bat ddng sdn vd dit dai thong
qua viec di vay mugn nudc ngodi trong ngdn
ban vdi ldi suat cao. Trong giai doan bimg
nl
bong bdng bat ddng sdn, dac
biel
la tir sau
ndm
2003,
cdc ngan bang da gdp phin lam

tang nhu cau nhd d thdng qua cdc quy dinh
cho vay
Idng
leo
ciia
minh. Cdc khoan cho
vay cd
thi
len tdi
100%)
gia tri
tbi
chip, tang
cudng cho ngudi cd thu nhap trung binh vay
tien mua nha. Tdng trudng tin dung cho
kliu
vuc tu nhan cua he thdng ngan hang tir nam
2003-2007 lien tuc khodng 25%o/ndm. Viec
cho cac cdng ty phdt triln bit ddng sdn vay
tien dugc md rdng vd khi khiing hodng xay
ra, cdc
klioan
ng ndy lai trd thdnh khdng
thi
thu hdi.
Thir
ba
Id
tinh trgng thdm hut ngdn
sdch

nghiem trgng a qudc gia ndy trong mdy
ndm
gdn ddy. Do kinh tl tdng trudng manh me,
chi tieu cua chfnh phu tir ndm 1995
din
nam
2005 da tdng gip ddi theo gid tri thuc tl, vdi
ty
le tdng trung binh hang ndm la 6%. Khi
3Uidntj,
heydng
no'
ei)n(j
d'
elidu
cflu.
51
khiing hodng tai chinh toan cau nd ra va
bong bdng nba d bi vd, thu nhap tir thue
gidm mdt each dot ngdt. Tdng thu nhap
chinh phil giam tir 68 ty EUR ndm 2007
xudng cdn 60 ty EUR ndm 2009, do thu nhap
tir thue trudc ba vd thuc lai vdn gidm tir 6,3
ty EUR xudng 1,6 ty EUR.
Sir
giam xudng
trong thu nhap nay kbdng dugc can bang bdi
sir
giam xudng tuong
iing

trong chi
tieu
chinh phil. Vdi ty le that nghiep gia tdng,
chinh phil budc phai tang cudng chi tieu cho
trg cap that
nghiep
tir
18,7
ty EUR
nam
2007
len tdi 23.5 ty EUR ndm 2009. Chi trong
vdng hai nam tir ndm 2007 den ndm 2009,
ngan sach
ciia
chinh
phii
da di tir thdng du
tdi tham but khoang 20 ty EUR.
3.
Mot so tac dong ciia khiing hoang
no"
cong chau Au doi
vol
Vict Nam
Cudc khiing hodng ng edng chdu Au
tnrac lien dd thirc tinh Viet Nam trong viec
vay ng vd quan ly chi lieu. Theo bdo cdo
ciia
Chinh phil cdng bo dau thang 10 nam 2010,

ng cdng ndm
2010
udc se len tdi 52,6%
GDP,
trong dd ng nudc ngodi chiem 38,8%
GDP Chfnh
phii
du kiln ng cdng trong ndm
2011
se
Id
57,1% GDP, cao ban gin 5% so
vdi ndm 2010. Day la
miic
khd cao, ddi hdi
chfnh phil phai than trpng ban trong viec vay
ng dl trdnh xdy ra tinh trang mat an todn.
Tilp
din,
euge khung hodng ndy dnh
hudng den kinh te Viet
Nani
cd true tiep vd
gidn tiip. Chau Au la thi trudng xuit khau
ldn
thii
hai
ciia
Viet Nam, chi sau My, chiem
16,43%

xuit khiu
ciia
Viet Nam ndm 2009.
Khiing hoang ng cdng lan rdng d chau Au tat
ylu se dan
din
tdc dp phuc hdi
ciia
nen kinb
tl
thi
gidi chdm lai, that nghiep vd lam phat
tai cdc qudc gia chau Au se tdng cao, ddng
EUR mit gid, thu nhap thuc te
ciia
ngudi dan
va ciu tieu diing ddi vdi hang bda nhap khau
gidm manh. Theo Bd Cdng thuang, khiing
hoang ng cdng se keo theo nhirng khd khan
vl tai chinh khien cdc qudc gia chau Au cd
the thit chat nhap khau vd gia tang dp ddt cdc
rao can thuang mai ddi vdi hang hda
ciia
Viet Nam. Mat khac, theo nhieu chuyen gia
kinh tl, tdc ddng
ciia
khiing hoang ng cdng
chdu Au ddi vdi xuat khau
ciia
Viet Nam se

khdng qud ldn, vi mac
dii
EU la ddi tdc
thuang mai ldn
ciia
Viet Nam, song kim
ngach thuang mai hai chieu giiia Viet Nam
vdi EU hien nay cbi chiem ban 1% gid tri
kim ngach thuang mai
ciia
EU. Hon niia,
bdng hda
ciia
Viet Nam xuat khau sang EU
chil yeu
Id
hdng hda gid re, do dd viec thdt
chat cbi tieu khien ngudi tien diing EU
chuyen tir hang hda xa xi sang cdc loai hang
hda gid re do cac doanh nghiep Viet Nam san
xuat.
Ben canh dd, euge khimg hodng ndy
eiing cd the ddn den su bdt dn dinh tren thi
trudng the
gidi
Cdc nhd dau tu tren the gidi
dang tim vdng nhu mdt nai tni an an todn
trudc nguy ca cudc khiing hoang ng chau Au
52
NGHIEN

COU
CHAU AU EUROPEAN STUDIES REVIEW
N°09 (132).2011
nga\
mdt lan rdng. lam cho
giii
vang Irong
Ihdi
gian qua tdng manh.
Vice giii
vang tang
ciing \ di xu hudng tang manh
ciia
ddng USD
la dieu il khi xay ra. Rat co
the
sc lang ldi
mpt
k\
luc
nidi
trong
{ha\
gian tdi \a tao
sir
lach biel hoan loan giua gia lai san vang va
cac lai
san
khac.
Dieu

nay
.sc
tac ddng xau
don dau tu loan the gidi \a Vicl
Nam,
bdi
mol khi
\ang chiCMii
ly trpng ldn trong danh
miic
dim lu cua cac
Id
chirc
ihi
cung ddng
nghia
\oi vice
cac danh muc khac nhu cd
phieu. trai
phieu
sc bi giam manh.
Miir
vdy,
ludng vdn ddu
lir
gidn liep cdng Ira nen hgn
che.
Khung hoang ng chdu
.in
citng gdy ra

nhirng hien ddng bdt thudng ve ly gid.
Sir
bien
dpng tang giam
ciia
ddng USD va ddng
Yen
sc gay ra tinh trang bat dn dinh ddi vdi
boat dpng xuat nhap khau
ciia
cac doanh
nghiep
Vict Nam. Neu ddng USD tang gia
trong khi tham
bui
thuang mai
ciia
Vict Nam
dang gia tdng, cdng vdi thdi
diem
dao ban
ciia
cac khoan \'ay lin dung ngoai lc. se lam
gia tang
sire
cp lang nii ro hdi doai va bien
dpng
l\
gia, cd llw gdy khd khdn ddi vdi hogt
ddng kinh doanh vd thuang mgi cita

Viei
Nam.
Ngoai ra, \'icl Nam con cd the chiu dnh
huong hdi euge khimg hodng ng cdng hicn
nay ldm cho ddu tu
true
liep nudc ngodi
gidm.
Cac nha dau tu chau Au se ban che
dau tu ra nudc ngoai ban.
4.
Ket
luan
Rd rang cudc
kbiing
hodng ng d chau
Au
da va dang dat ra nhieu van de, ma tang
cuimg
quan tri cdng, quan ly ngudn vdn vay
mdi chi la mdt gdc nbin. Qua
Ibuc
te nay co
the rill ra mot sd bai hgc cbo Vict Nam. Thu
nluil: cin sir dung cac khoan dau tu cong
hieu
qua. Chi khi nao biet chac chan rang
dau tu nay cd
bicii
qua va giai quycl cac nhu

Cciu ihirc
su Clia nen kinh tc thi mdi dau tu.
Thir hai: Phai kicm soat chat cbc mirc tham
hut ngan sdch.
77?/?
ba: Chinh
phii
phai lang
cudng sire canh tranh
ciia nen
kinh lc. Bdi
chi cd tang trudng mdi cd the chdng dugc
riii
ro va khiing hoang.
TAI LIEU
111A.\1
KHAO
1.
Central Bank of Ireland (2010), The
h'ish
Banking Crisis Regulatory and
Financial Stability Policy 2003-2008,
Dublin, pp. 22-27.
2.
Central Bank of Ireland
(2010),
The
Road Ahead for Financial Regulation,
Dublin.
3.

Chuyen de khiing hodng ng cdng
chdu Au. Bdo dien tir Vitinfo,
/> 7
2011
lUl/l/defaiiltbtm
4.
Colm
Mc Carthy (2009), Irish
Pensions Policy and Public Debt
DCIiung hodntp
no'
ejdug
(^
elidu cflu
53
Management, Irish Economy Note
No.2,
Dublin Economics Workshop.
5.
Cue Quan ly Ng va Tdi ehinb ddi
ngoai, Bd Tai chinh
(2011).
Bdn tin ng nude
ngodi sd 06.
I.
Fernanda
Necliio
(2011).
Long-Run
Impact

ofthe
Crisis in Europe: Reforms and
Austerity Measures, FRBSF Economic Letter
2011-07.
8. Financial Institutions Supervision,
Central Bank of Ireland (2010), The Irish
banking crisis: lessons
learned,
future
challenges, Dublin.
9. Fine Gael and Labour Party (2010),
Government for National Recovery
2011-
2016, Dublin.
10.
Gregory Connor, Thomas Flavin and
Brian O'Kelly (2010), The US and Irish
Credit Crises: Their Distinctive Differences
and Common Features, Irish Economy Note
No.
10, Dublin Economics Workshop.
II.
Julie Byrne (2010), Ireland and the
Global Financial Crisis: Growth, Volatility
and Financial Development.
12.
Khung hodng ng cdng Hy Lgp vd
nhirng
dnh hudng den Viet Nam.
htlp://vietstock.vii/ChannelID/582/Tin-

tuc/154388-khung-boang-no-cong-bv-lap-
va-nhung-anb-buong-den-vict-nam.aspx
13.
Khung hodng ng cdng the gidi vd
kinh nghiem cho Viet Nam, Bai 3: Nguy ca
vd nhirng khuyen cdo vdi Viet Nam (2010),
VOV News,
/>Nguv-co-va-nhung-khuven-cao-voi-Vict-
Naiii/201012/161997.VOV.
14.
Lex Hoogduin
(2011),
Economic
and Monetary Union and the Sovereign Debt
Crisis, Leiden University, Netherlands.
15.
Michael G. Arghyrou and
Alexandros Kontonikas
(2011),
The EMU
sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals,
expectations and contagion, Economic
Papers 436, pp. 2-4.
16.
Ng cdng vd qudn ly ng cdng a Viet
Nam.
hllp://www.fad.
dancing,
gov,
vn/de

fault,
a
spx?id_NgonNgu=VN&id_ThucDon_Sitb=2
OO&TinChinh^O&id
TinTuc=l 709&TransT
hai=BanTin
17.
Patrick Honohan (2009), Irish
Banking Policy during and after the Crisis,
Irish Economy Note No. 5, Dublin
Economics Workshop.