Cơ Sở Khoa Học Của Vấn Đề Chuyển Dịch Cơ Cấu Kinh Tế Nông Nghiệp, Nông Thôn Theo Hướng Công Nghiệp Hóa, Hiện Đại Hóa Ở Việt Nam Trong Tương Lai.docx

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BO NONG NGHIEP & PHAT TRI N NONG THON
Vi(n Khoa hpc Ky thua) t N6ng Nghiép Vi(t Nam
Thanh Tri - Ha Noi
NGHIEN CUU LUAN CU KHOA HOC
DE CHUYEN D!CH CO CAU KINH
TE
NONG NGHI P, NONG THON THEO HU NG
CONG NGHIEP HO/\, HIEN DAI HOA
Mé sd KC 07-17

Béo céo d4 téi nhénh 4 .

CO SP KHOA HOC CUA VPN DC CHUY N DICH CO CNU KINH TO
>0NG NGHI8P, NONG THON THEO HIJCING CONG NGHI$P HOW,
HI$N D I HOWVI8T NAM TRONG TLfONG LAI.
Chu nhi§m de“ téi nhénh: GS.VS. DAO TIJk TUAN
Ngirdi tham gia chinh: TS. Déo Thé Anh, ThS. Hoéng ViJ Quang,
ThS. ViJ Nguyén, ThS. Lé Th| Chau Dung, CN. Hoéng Thanh Tdng

Hé Néi, Théng 12 - 2004
Bén quyén 2004 thu0c Vién Khoa hoc KQ thu t Ndng nghi p Vi‹(›t Nam
Ddn xin sao ch8p toén bd
Khoa hoc KQ thuat N6ng
nghién cau.


MUC LUC
I.

ND!CH CD
KINH \/Y M0vl
N4 I\10NG QUASD
HLJ4
D!ºH L CCH
II4CHTO/JI X4I-IOI 191 ›-ZX0..................................................................................8
1.Khéi quét vé Ma tr§n hach toén xé h§i ct\a Vie] t nam..........................8

2.1. Cs cau kinh IDvé qué trinh chuyén d|ch cd edu kinh t4 d Vi§t nam ..
11
2.1.1.
Co cau chi phi trung gian va gié tr]i gia tang gi0a céc nganh
kinh te.. 11
2.1.2.Co cau ngoai thrrong cua céc ngénh kinh III‹› Viet nam.............11
2.1.3.Sri phét tri4n va chuyen d|ch co cau ngénh nbng nghiep...........12
2.2. Sj/ phét trien va chuyén d|ch co céu nganh céng nghi§p.............13
2.3. SB' phét trién vé chuyen d|ch cd edu ngénh d;ich vq....................13
2.4. Chuyén d|ch co edu lao d§ng giiJa céc ngénh kinh té..................14
2.5. Co edu giti’a céc thénh ph n kinh té vé si/ thay déi the che.....15
2.5.1............................................................................................ Nha
nrroc........................................................................................................15
2.5.2............................................................................................Ho
gia dinh............................................................................................... 15
2.5.3............................................................................................Doa
nh nghiep........................................................................................... 15

1.2.1........................................................................................... Hai
loqi bien trong m‹› hinh mb phéng.....................................................18
1.2.2............................................................................................ Céc

n8i dung chinh trong m‹› hinh.........................................................18

1.2.2.1.............................................................................Tdn
g sén pham qu‹›c n‹›i (GDP).....................................................18
1.2.2.2. DJn so................................................................................,...........19
1.2.2.3. Lao d‹›ng.................................................................................19


1.2.2.4..................................................................................Thu
nhap................................................................................................19
1.2.2.5.................................................................................. Nh
u céu tiéu dung gao vd thit....................................................19

1.2.2.6. oaidai...................................................................................20

1.2.2.7. Nang suat lua va ng‹›..................................................................20


1.2.3. So lieu ném co s‹›..........................................................................20
1.2.4....................................................................................... Céc
phiJong én trong mb hinh mo phong.............................................20
1.2.4.1..................................................................................... Phv
ong én 1:’Xu thé’....................................................................20
1.2.4.2..................................................................................... P
hirong én 2:"Cong nghiep héa ta/ p trung".............................21
1.2.4.3..................................................................................... Phv
ong én 3: "Cong nghiep h‹›a n‹›ng th6n'.....................................21
1.3.1........................................................................................,
Phvorg én 1: xu the....................................................................21
1.3.1.1..................................................................................... Co

cau GDP.......................................................................................21
1.3.1.2..................................................................................... Lao
dong vé dan s‹›.....................................................................24
1.3.1.3..................................................................................... Thu
nhép va nhu cau tiéu thu thit va litong th‹/c...........................25
1.3.1.4..................................................................................... San
xuat (san pham) nong nghiep chinh............................................26
1.3.2........................................................................................... P
hirong én 2: C6ng nghiep hoé ta]p trung.....................................27
1.3.2.1..................................................................................... Co
cau GDP......................................................................................27
1.3.2.2..................................................................................... Dan
so va lao dong.......................................................................29
1.3.2.3..................................................................................... Thu
nhap vd nhu cau tiéu thu th]it va lvong th‹/c..........................30
1.3.2.4..................................................................................... Sén
xuat n‹›ng nghiép chinh...............................................................32
1.3.3........................................................................................... Phvo
ng én 3: C‹›ng nghiép hoé n‹›ng thon................................................32
1.3.3.1..................................................................................... Co
cau GDP.....................................................................................32
1.3.3.2. Dan sd va lao dong.................................................................34
1.3.3.3..................................................................................... Thu
nhép va nhu céu tiéu thu thit vé lvong thiJc...........................35
1.3.3.4..................................................................................... Sén
xuat nong nghiep chinh...............................................................36


1.1.1........................................................................................... Nga
nh hang lua gao.................................................................................41

1.1.2........................................................................................... Nga
nh hang ngo.......................................................................................48
1.1.3........................................................................................... Nga
nh hang sén.......................................................................................54
1.1.4........................................................................................... Nga
nh hang khoai lang............................................................................57
1.2............................................................................................... Ngén
h héng thjjt pham........................................................................61

1.2.1. fJganh i›ang l‹/r................................................................................. st
1.2.2........................................................................................... Nga
nh hdng tr9u b‹›.................................................................................66
1.2.3........................................................................................... Ngé
nh héng gia cém................................................................................70

2


1.2.4........................................................................................... Nga
nh hang thuy sén...............................................................................71

2. Cau trdc mé hinh mé phéng su' phét tri n ciia m§t sé ngénh héng néng
nghlsp dén 2020 ............................................................................................• .••.
75
2.1...................................................................................................So
dé c u tréc mé hinh da th;i trUdng..................................................75
hnnh
2.2.1. Sén xuat.............................................................................................79
2.2...............................................................................................2.
Nhu cau sL/ dung trong nLtdc..........................................................................83

2.2.3. Trao doi vé can bang.....................................................................85
2.z.4.
cia.................................................................................................... es
2.2.5............................................................................................Thu
nhap va dén sd............................................................................87
2.2.6............................................................................................Ngu
én sd lieu...........................................................................................88
2.3................................................................................................... C
éc phiJ'ong én mé ph6ng sq' thay déi chinh séch thué theo cam két88
2.4. Ket qua mo phong..............................................................................90
2.4.1............................................................................................Phrr
ong én co s‹J :...................................................................................90
2.4.2............................................................................................Ph‹/
ong én 1............................................................................................. 94
2.4.3............................................................................................Phr
0ng én 2....................................................................................... 96
2.4.4.......................................................................................... Phi/
ong én 3..................................................................................... 101
2.4.5.......................................................................................... Phr/
ong én 4...........................................................................................103
2.4.6.......................................................................................... Phrro
ng én 5.............................................................................................106
2.5. Ket luan phan.................................................................................108
I\/.

LUMCHUNG

A CNG COCCXTNN, I\IT DC

20ZJ........................................109

PH L C.........................................................................................................................112
T \J UEUTFI4M TO.................................................................................................................124


DANH MUC BANG
Béng 1: Ma trén hach toén xa ho(i vi rnt› ctia V t riam nérn 1996 va ném 2000, tinh theo gia so
sénh
ném 2000........................................................................................................................................10

Béng 2: Chi phitrung gian va gié tri. gia targ ctJa céc ngénh kinh té Mm 1996 va nérn 2000..........11
Béng 3: Coctiu gié tri gia téng angénh d[ich w ......................................,..............................................14
8érg 4: Ruing én 1 - Xu thé GDP trorg rrb pl›éng chuy4n d)ich co cfiu kinh té Vie/ t nam 22
Béng 5: Ruing én 1 - Dan s5 va bo do/ rg theo ngénh va khu vi/c.......................................24
Béng 6 : Ruing én 1 - xu thé Thu nhép, nhu céu téu thu vé g o, th't theo khu vi/c..............25
Béng 7: Ruong an 1 - Mét sé6it›rgs6vé sén xuat nt›rg ie[p.......................................................27

Béng 8: Ruoig an 2 - cf›rg nghiép hoé trung GDP trong mo phérg CDCCKTVN.....................28
Béng 9: Ruong én 2 - Dan s6va Lao ddng theo rigénh va theo khu vijc..............................30

Mrg 10 : Phuoig én 2 - ct›ng nghiép tx›é..........................................................................p
trung.
31
Béng 11: Ruing én 2 - c0ng rghiép hoé taptrurg.....................................................................32
Bérq 12: Ruong an 3 - ct›ng nghiép hoé nbrg thin GDP trong mo phérg CDCCKTVN..........34
Béng 13: Ruong én 3 -‹›5ng nghiep hoé r›dng th0n.............................................................35
8érg 14 : Phuoig én 3- CNH NT nhu céu tiéu thu vé g‹jo, th(t theo khu vijc...........................36
Béng 15: Ruohg an 3 - Mot s6thbng s5 vé sén xuat ndng rghiép.................................................37

8éng 16. So sénh kétqué c0a 3 phuog an int› phdng............................................................38

Béng 17: Dien theft, néng suit vé sén lupng I6a gjo ctia V t nam giai doa.n 1990 -2002.............42

Béng 18: Dier tch, narg suatvs sén luong ngé ctiaV t narc................................................49
Bang 19: Dien left, nang suatva san luog san \/iet narr›.............................................................54
Béng 20: D n tch, néng suatva sén lumg khoai larg c0a Vi0t nam giai doan 1996 -2002......58
Béng 21: Di$n tch gieo tr6ng.....................................................................................................91

8éng 22: Torg sén lupng..........................................................................................................91
Béng 23: Téng nhu céu........................................................................................................................92

Bérg 24: Lv‹;rig xuat / nh¿ap khau............................................................................................92
Béng 25: Gié........................................................................................................................................93
Béng 26 : Cocéu Pacéc ngénh héng rghién ‹:tiu trong md hinh so v‹± t6ng GDP vé GDP
nt›ng

nsh r ciJa «›o hinh Kinh tévtrri0............................................................................................................. lx›


DANH MUC CAC
|-|igh 1; Billa| |j|j[|jjjg§ gian \/é §|§ |j.j gia téng............................................................1
|-||h|T ;

@g

Ll §||§ [jj gia | g§ Pa g§}§g[T 0l§g nghiép..........................................................................t

h

n

h

h

...

................................................

1

Hinh 4: Téc do[ phét trien kinh tétheo ngénh va theo khu vi/c....................................................23
|}jgg jjjj§ phéng Pa [jtjU0h §g 1 - )(lJ t]ji§..................................................................................................

tJinh 5: Ruing én 1 - Cocéu GDP theo khu vijc kinh té va ném............................................23
Hinh $'

RU0hg §g 2 - C'jcéu GDP t[je0 |t|ju yLfc..................................................................29

Hinh 7: Phuorg in 3 - C0 céu GDP theo khu vuc \/é nam...................................................33

Hinh 8: The

téng buéng cfia DT, NS vé sén Iuog lua c0a Viét nam giaidoan 1991 -2004. 43

Hinh 9: Gié lri xuat khéu va “be térg xuat kh8u ggo dJaVét nam giai doa.n 1997 —2002..........45
Hinh 10: Cocau t9u thy trong nu‹ › va xuat khéu gjo éa Vét nam..................................47
Hinh 11: Cocéu tiéu d9ng gqo dVie[ t riam ném 1998 va 2002..................................................48

Hinh 12: T cdo/ térg die( n tlch, nang suéUsén Iu‹/hg rgt› Pa \/iét nam..........................50
Hinh 13: Chénh IQpia ngé th(i tru0ng t«x›g null› vé thé gidi................................................52

Hinh 14: Cocéu tiéu dung ng0 ‹: a Viét nam ném 2002.........................................................53
Hinh 15: Técdé téng DT, NS vé sén lumg sén c0aVi0t riarn giaidoa.n 1996 -2000................56
Hinh 16: Ran bé t ng

i brgtheov0rg kinh té ném 2002..................................................59

Hinh 17: T6c dt›. téng dien tich, nérg suat vé sén Iu‹x›g khoai fang............................................59
Hinh 18: Gié cé vé si/ bién

gié cé ctia khoai lang trong nu‹t:›..............................................60

Hinh 19: Sé luong w ttic do/ gia téng dan Ion giaidoa. n 1996-2004......................................61
Hinh 20: Srr bd gia cé ten hé w gia bén Ié loi hoi tai TT trorg nu‹t:› giaidoa. n 96-2000........64

Hinh 21: Nݎi
Iuo.

gva si/ bién ddi gié xuat khau thrtloi ‹›Viet rum giai doan 1996 —2002. 65

Hinh 22: Quy rra chan nusi tréu bd va s6Iu‹/rg tréu bt›..............................................................67
Hinh 23: T‹ › d§ targ giérn sén lupng th(t tréu, t›é giai doa.n 1991 —2002................................68
Hinh 24: S‹rbien ‹JD gié t›;‹bt› tror0 nutcva trén th| tru6ng qu cte“...................................69
Hinh 25: Sé lu‹/ng gia cém va toe“ jia targ gia cém h8ng nan................................................70

Hinh 26: Sén lu‹/ng th sén khai ttiéc giai dc n 1996 — 2®2 ..............................,...........................72


Hinh 27: Sirbién do/ rg c0a gié cé giai doan 1991 va 2002 ‹: a khu v‹/c08SCL va cé nu‹ :›.. 73
Hinh 28: sia ph8n u ré...........................................................................................................94

Hihh @;

i§ ph8n nI.................................................................................. 94

Hinh 30: Nérg suat ng5...........................................................................................................95
Hinh 31: Tong cung n@.........................................................................................................95

Hinh 32: Nhap khau rgé............................................................................................................ 96
Hinh 33: Nhép khéu ngé.............................................................................................................................9 6
Hinh 34: Dien tich téng ngt›................................................................................................97
Hinh 35: Néng suat ngt›............................................................................................................... 97
Hihh 36: Dién tch gis› tting l6a...................................................................................99

Hinh 37: Sé gia cém giét mo..........................................................................................................99
Hinh 38: S6I‹/n gi4t mo hdng ném...................................................................................................100
Hinh 39: Xuat kh5u th;t lon..............................................................................................................100
Hinh 40: Nhép khéu thit gé..........................................................................................................101
Hinh 41: Nhap

u th(k gé.................................................................................................................101

Hinh 42: Sé gia cém.........................................................................................................................102

I-linh 43: Tong c‹ing th(t gia cérri....................................................................................................102
Hinh 44: S6luong Ion riéi.......................................................................................................103
Hinh 45: Stiloigiét

ltdng ném.....................................................................................................103

Hinh 46: Torg curg th)k l‹/n..............................................................................................................104

i-iinh 47: Nhap

u ng6....................................................................................................................104

Hinh 48: r›ie/ n tich tréng ngt›....................................................................................................105
Hinh 49: Gia th)t l‹/n.....................................................................................................................105
Hinh 50: N p khéu ng...........................................................................................................106
Hinh 51: Téng curig rgé...................................................................................................................107

Hinh 52: Dien tch géo trtirg lua.......................................................................................107

6


MUC DICH YEU CAU CUA BAO CAO
Nhfmg nam gtin ddy, n6n kinh t6 nucic ta da ph:it trien v6i t8c dd cao,
trung binh giai doan (90 - 2000) dat trén 7.59o, trong d‹5 ngiinh ndng nghi(p
dat 4.47'7c , ngénh c6ng nghi p dat l29o va ngiinh dich vu dat 6.98fio. Viii t8c
d8 t g cao nay khong chi gop phtin én dinh x5 hfii, tao tién dc: cho su nghi(p
c8ng nghi(p ho:i, hi(n dai hoa ddt nucic, tiing thu nh6p, ndng cao déi s8ng
nh6n d6n, ma con cung ctfp nguy‹:n v8t li(u cho cac ngiinh c8ng nghi(p, dich
vu, du lich va xu6t khAu. Thénh quit kinh tfl dat dupe co su d‹ing gdp dang k6
cua chuong trinh chuyén d)ch cc c6u cdy tr8ng, v8t nuoi, d5 va dang duoc
thuc hi(n tr8n pham vi ca nucic. Ph:it trién kinh té n8ng nghi(p va n8ng th8n
dong vat tro quan trpng trong su ph:it tri6n kinh t6 x5 h8i ciia mGi qu8c gia,
trong nhfmg nam qua n6n n8ng nghi(p Vi t nam kh6ng ngimg dupc c:ii thi(n,
bfi mat nf ing th8n d5 co nhieu d8i khiic, déii song nh6n d6n dupe t g len,
kinh té dlt nucrc ngay in t himg thinh.
Chuy8n dich cci edu kinh t6 phai la m8t trong nhiing muc ti6u dinh

hu6ng chi$n lupc cho vi(c ph:it trien nfii chung va n6ng nghi(p n8ng th8n nfii
ri8ng.
DC co cc so khoa hoc cho nhfmg d)mh hi1‹5ng chi6n lupc ph:it trim d6t
nucrc, ctin thiét ph:ii co m8t nghi8n c6u mang tinh té›ng thé va h( th8ng nhtim
xiic dinh ro c:ie lu8n cii khoa hpc cho sU chuyt:n dJch ccr c8u kinh ID nong
nghi(p ndng thGn theo phu hpp v‹ii di6u ki(n Vi(t narn va c:ic giai doan ph:it
trién ciia d6t nuoc, dGng thit dinh luong ducic qu:i trinh chuyén dich va du
bao ph:it trim kinh t6 xa hé›i giai doan sap t‹ii. DC dinh lupng dupc qu:i trinh
chuy8n dich qua dfi hiéu ducic nhfmg da)c trung va bén ch$t cua cci c6u kinh
t6 n8ng nghi p, n8ng thGn va d8 xult ducic c:ie chinh siich nh diéu chinh
xu thé chuy6n dich cci c6u kinh té:, chiing t6i ring dung cac cGng cu ph8n
tich toiin hoc sau:

1996
2000, nham d:inh gi:i tinh hinh tling truéng va ph:it trién ciia n6n kinh t6 ,
cling nhu I:ie d8ng ciia sq ph:it trién kinh ID — x5 h8i din chuy6n d)ch cc
‘m8 cii a Vi(t nam giai doan 1996 — 2000.
clu kinh

7


2) De phuc vu cho n6i dung m8 phfing c:ic phuong :in chuyén dich cci
ciiu kinh te n8ng nghiCp ri6ng thou theo c:ie giai doan kh:ic nhau trong va d6
xu:It ducic c:ic chinh s:ich thich hpp trong tuong lai dfii v6i vi(c ph:it tri8nn
nGng nghi(p va nGng thGn, chiing tGi d5 phfii hpp hai cong cu m8 phfing
theo hai buoc la:
Mtr hinh cc can hinh té vy mti nham mo phfing su chuy8n dich ccr
c6u chung ciia n6n kinh t‹' va cci ctfu kinh t6 nGng thGn.

Mb hinh da thi trudng dfing nham mG phfing su thay d$i ciia
m6t so ngénh hiing n6ng s:in ›chinh theo thiii gian dna tr6n nén c:ie yéu t8
m8 du bao theo xu hu‹ing ciia Mb hinh cci edu kinh té
mo.

Ma trén hach toiin x$ h6i (Social Accounting Matrix — SAM) la m0t
bang hach to:in tr6n quy m8 toén bo nén kinh té, th6 hi(n c:ie quan h( giiia
céc ngitnh kinh te, cac y 6u to sén xudt, c:ie h0 gia dinh, c:ic thé ch6 trong
nuoc va c:ic the ch8 nuoc ngoai.
Ma tr8n hach to:in x5 h i la mOt h( thong s8 li u c:i ve kinh th va xa
h6i ciia m‹5t nén kinh té. Ngu8n s8 li(u ciia Ma trtln hach toiin xa h i la tir

big Vao - Ra), cite th8ng ké ve thu nh8p quoc gia va ciic th6ng k$ v6 thu
nh(lp va tiéu thu ciia h8 gia dinh. Ma trtin hach to:in xa h8i la c:ich sap x8p in
t c:ich logic ciic thong tin th8ng ké li6n quan din c:ie m8i tuong tire giiia
sén xu6t, thu nhap, ti6u thu va tich luy v8n ciia mért nu‹ic trong mot khoéng
thiii gian nhdt d|mh (th8ng thu g la 1 ntim).
Vé can trim, Ma tr hi hach to:in xa h i la mot ma tr8n d8i xfmg (269 x
269) tuong ring v6i mé›t ‹long la mC›t c6t cua ma tr8n. C:ie s8 li(u cua dong la
cite kho thu (thu nh6p), chuy6n tit c:ic tar khoén kh:ie sang cua tai khoén
dong dfi. C:ic so 1i(u cua c8t la céc khoén chi, chuy6n sang c:ie téi khoén
kh:ie ciia tai kho n cot dfi. Sfi di›ng hay s8 c I cua Ma trln hach to:in xa hoi
tuy thu8c vao timg nén 1:inh t6. Nguy6n tac cua Ma trtln hach toiin xa h8i
la

8


tong thu phai big t6ng chi, nghia la t6ng dong bting v6i t8ng c6t. Co 4 loai

’ xu8t, Hitng
(H0 gia dinh, Doanh nghii³p, Chinh phii va Von), va Cite tar kho:in kh:ie (ph8n
ciin lai ciia th8 gi‹5i,...).
Muc tiéu chin y8u ciia vi(c sit dung Ma tr8n Hach to:in xa h8i trong ph&i
tich chuyén dich cci c6u kinh te ci Vi(t nam nhiim b8 sung nhfmg s6 li(u ciin

thiét ma ciic s8 lieu thing ke kh:ie chua co nhu cc cttu ti6u diing sén phtim ciia
cac ngiinh kinh té, cc ctfu tiéu diing ciia c:ie thé ch6 trong va ngoai nufic, tiét
ki(m ciia ho gia dinh,... g‹ip phtin dénh gi:i chinh x:ic tinh hinh ph:it trit i va
chuy6n dich cc c6u kinh t6 ’ ctl dd vi mfi ciia Vi(t nam, tao cci sci dna ra c:ie
gif ph:ip va c:ie kiln nghi chinh sach nhiim thiic d6y su tiing truéing va phiit
trién cua nén kinh té.
Do vi(c x6y dimg big Ma trfln Hach toiin x5 hGi di›i hfii nhi8u théii gian
nen chfing t8i ” dduunng tru‹: tiCp I3iing Ma tr6n Hach toén xa h i ciiaVi(t
nam da
dupc Vi(n Nghién ciiu Quén ly Kinh t6 Trung uong (CIEM) xfly dung va
c8ng b8. Tuy nhi6n, big Ma tr n Hach to:in xa h i ciia Vi(t nam dupc xly
dimg g6n diy nhht la nd 200(J, né:n b:to c:to chi co d6 cdp dupe su thay
ddi trong cc c6u kinh té ciia Vi(t nam nong giai doan 1996 - 2000.

2. lJ'ng dgng ma tr§n h§ch toén x5 h§i trong phén tich chuyen d]ich co
c8u kinh té d Vi§t nam
Big Ma tr6n Hach to:in xa hoi chi ti6t ciia Vi(t nam ducic sit dung dé
d:inh giii su ph:it tri6n néri kinh té cua Vi(t nam thong qua c:ic chi tiéu kinh th
vii mG
yééuu ttrroong n6n ki’nh té nhu chi' phi“ trung gi’an, gi’:’i tri’ gi’a
chi’t
tiing ci’ia
c:ie nganh kinh té, thu nh.dp, tiéu diing, tilt ki(m ciia cite th6 ché trong nude.
Tuy nhién, do béng Ma tr6n Hach to:in xa ho( i ducic x6y dutig co tinh

ch6t nhttt qu:in qua c:ie thi:›i kj khiic nhau nen no cling la in t “n cu him
hi(u de phdn tich su thay d6i, sq chuyén dich vfl cci edu kinh té qua c:ie théi
ky.


9


Bang 1: Ma tran hach ti›:in xa hoi
2000, l inh theo gi:i so s:inh nam 2000
Chi ( déng)

N8m 1996
Thu

Ngénh Ngénh

KT

Ng5nh KT

SP

373,217

YTSX
H§ GD

267,469

13,893 24,857

N‹réc ngoéi

25,577 86,056 125,146 838,168

197,161
64,718

1,688

13,726

80,133

5,590

1,524 22,812 68,676

1,737

139,089

11,444 56,370 11,488

6,753

86,056

158,733

160,393

654,578 838,168 267,469 242,800 80,133 139,089 86,056 160,393
Chi

Ngénh Ngénh
YTSX H§ GD
KT
SP

DN

TK6DT

Tong Thu

28,265 130,827 241,401 1123,810
376,376

295,993

427,323
376,376

Ho' GD

.!70,487

5,553 42,204

DN

105,636

6,245

TK& DT

ngo6i

852,755

Ngtinh KT

Nhé n0'éc

267,469
13,031 242,800

1,659

Nér» 2000

Ng5nh SP
YTSX

T5ng Thu

0,000

0,950 31,659

TK& DT

Thu

ngoéi

6M,578
228,172

DN

Tong Chi

TK6DT

DN

654,578

Ng5nh SP

Nh5 n0éc

YTSX H§ GD

49,056 19,307

0,253

1,84

25,033

40,253 77,896 12,678

19,842 338,086
1,088

112,969

2,072

97,561
130,827

tlirdc ngoéi
251,747
4,487 8,169
264,403
Tong Chi
852,755 1123,81 .\76,376 338,086 112,969 97,561 130,827 264,403

N guci n.’ Vién qucin Iy kinh té trung uong, 1999 va 2001
Nhin tir Ma trdn Hach to:in xa h i ntim 1996 va niim 2000 co th$
thtfy su thay d8i cc can kinh tc: .qua m0t s8 chi ti6u sau:


Chi phi trung gian va gi:i tri gia tiing la nhfmg yéu t6 chit yéu énh

huéng dén su t g tru6nj' va ph:it trién cua c:ie ngiinh kinh té. Trong giai
doan tit nd 1996 den nam 2000, chi phi trung gian ciia c:ie ngiinh kinh té
déu t g, ting cao nhttt lii ngiinh dich vu 18,l29o, cfing nghi(p la 8,809o Va
n6ng nghi(p la 1 ,12ko. Sii gia tiing chi phi trung gian ci c:ie ngénh kinh
t‹: chiitig to nhu c6u ddu tu cila c:ic ngénh kinh t6 da t g 16n.

B:ing 2: Chi phi trung gian va giii tr) gia tAng ciia c:ie nganh hinh té
nam
1996 va nam 2000
1'J96

2000

( ‹féng)

CPTG
Néng nghiep
CN&XD
D|ch v;

GTGT

51.033,19 7.567,62
261.083,67 7.708,73

(

CPTG
3.363,42

T‹›cd§ t8ng BQ

déng)

GTGT

1996 -2000(º/»)

CPTG GTGT

104.860,45

1,12

4,61

65.857,17 146.224,73

8,80

13,63

18,12

7,77

53.820,01 04.539,37 04.779,06

141.008,63

Nguon. Bang SAM chi tit t ciia Viét nam nam 1996 ver nam 2000
Trong c:ie ngénh kinh th, ngitnh cGng nghi(p la ngénh co t8c d6, tling
truéng binh qu8n cao nh6i . Giai doan 1996 — 2000, t8c d6c tiing trué›ng
binh quén dat 13,639o. Trong khi dfi ngiinh dich vu dat 7,77Wo va ngénh
ndng nghi‹:p chi dat 4,61Wo. M(t trong nhfmg nguy8n nh6n cua su ph:it trién
khdng ddng déu gifia c:ie ngiinh chin yéu la do su thay d8i trong cci c6u d6u
In, d6n dén su thay doi trong cci c6u chi phi trung gian (CPTG) va cci cttu
gi:i tri gia t g (GTGT) giiia cac ngénh kinh té.

Trong giai doan 1996 — 2000, cc c6u xu6t nh6p kh6u co su thay d8i
d4ng k8. Nganh c8ng ngini(p lu8n co ty' trpng xudt khttu cao trong cci cdu,
nam 1996, gi:i tri xu6t kh6u chi6m 70,349s, dén nam 2000 tiing lén
75,569'o, trung binh giai doan nay I g 17,74fio/nam. Sit tiing truéing
nhanh cua xu6t


khlu dii phK iinh diing ‹:hi6n luqc hudng vho xu4t khAu mil chfing ta dang

M:tc dii trpng ciia ngiinh n6ng nghi(p trong cci ctfu kinh té c6 giim
nhung gid tri gia tting ci rniic tuy(t d$i vIn tiing manh (xem I-Fuih 6). TiI
n6m 1996 d$n n6m 20€D, gi:i tri gia tiing ciia ngiinh n8ng nghi§p tling
21,2l 9o' , di6u my cho thtfy, nGng nghi(p Vi(t nam ti$p tuc phdt trim. Tuy
vAy, ngknh n8ng nghi6p thu6ng quan t6m din vi mo réing quy mG, ndng
cao n g suft ma it chit trpng din chft lupng vli thi, tru6ng dtlu ra cho n8ng s3n
hilng ho6.
Méit trong nhfmg nguy8n nhAn din dén su tiing tru6ng kh:ic nhau
ciia ctic ngiinh kinh té trong kh6i nglinh n6ng nghi@ llt do sq thay ddi chi
phi trung gian ciia c:ic ngiirfi. Ntim 1996, chi phi trung gian ciia ngitnh
nGng nghi(p llt 82,6 &o, rift nllin 2000 gi3m xu6ng con 76,349'o. Nhif vdy,
cc cfu dtiu tu vao c:ic hoat d my; séo xutft nGng nghi(p dii gi:inn xudng mid

thay viio
d6 li1 sq dtiu In rnanh vac vi(c phfit trifln ngiinh nu0i trflng
do ddd cl›i
thuy
phf trung gian cua ngdnh nu8i tr8ng
thuy
tiing l8n
rillm 20fO.
20,479o’

M’ 1594V n 1996

hinh 1: Cd! c£u chi phitrung gian vé gié tri.gia
téng ngénh néng, lém, th

aén ném 1996 vé

ném 2000 -(³/L)

GTGI’ mm 1996

CPTG mm 1996

Ng

n.•

I) s6 liéu tit bang Ma trén Hach toén XL hbi mini 1996 vb 2000

12


2.2. SiJ' phét trien vé ch

n d]ch cocéu ngénh céng nghI§p

Ngiinh c8ng nghi6yi va x6y dung ph:it triéii in:jnh mC, giii vai tr6
ngity ciing quan trpng trong n6n kinh té qu8c din. Nllm 2000, gi4 tri gia
tiing cua ngiinh c8ng nghi(lp chi6m 37,29&o tdng gi:i tri gia tiing cita n8n
kinh t$. Trong cc c4u gift tri gia tilng ciia kh6i ngimh c0ng nghi(p, ngilnh
phdt tridn in:jnh nhft lit ngiinh c6ng nghi(p ch6 bi$n luong tbqc thuc phlm
viI ngimh d6, t may.
I-Fmh 7 cho thtfy, c8ng nghi(p st xuft v8t chtft (CNSX) vM lit ngiinh
chi£in trpng cao nhft nong ccf ctfu kh8i ngiinh c6ng nghi(p, ti6p din llt
nglhih c8ng nghiCp khai thtic (CNKT), tuy niim 2000 tj trpng co giém
4,749o so v‹ii n4m 1996. Ty trpng cfia ngitnh CNCB t6ng nhanh ttf ll ,5fi&o
tilng l6n l4, l49’o.

Hinh 2: Cocéu gié tri. gia téng ciJa ngénh céng nghI§p

Ngu6n.’ Being SAM chi tit t ciia Vi t nam ném 1996 vé 2000
Hi(u qua sén xudt ciia ciic ngitnh c8ng nghi(p ch$ bi$n buéic dtiu dupc
car thi(n, trpng chi plii trung gian so vdi gi:i tri gia tiing cdc ngiinh c6ng
nghi(p ch$ bi$n giém xu‹1ng. Gi3m in:jnh nhdt lil ngiinh c0ng nghi(p ch$
bidn ché tit’ 87 ,699'o ntim 1996 xu8ng c6n 66,269’o niim 2000.

O8i vdi ctic nuoc daiig pMt trién nhu nuéic ta, trpng ciia ngénh dich vu
tiing lCn ld m(it xu hudnj; phii hop vdi quy lult phtit triéii. Nam 1996
trong ciia ngllnh dich vu chi$m 35,279'o d Rlim 1999 tiing ID:R $5,369'o. Mac

dii dat dupe t6c d0 tiing tru6ng kh:i nhanh trong nhiing
nhung h( s$
xutft kbJu ciia nglinh dich vu, vIn rtft thfp thé hi(n diic tinh dién hinh cfia n6n
kinh R cua Vi(t nam hi(n nay.


B:ing 3: Co can gi:i trJ gia tang cfia nganh d)ch vu
Don v[ tinh.’ to
ThVdng
ngh
i¿ep

Van téi

N8‹» 1996

25,65

7,81

Khéch
san
nhé
héng
7,64

N «› 2000

27,79

5,90

Binhquén96-2000

10,30

0,80

D|ch
vy cé
nhén

D|ch vq
céng
c§ng

6,57

D(lch
vy
thifong
m§i
23,67

9,25

8,69

21,58

26,78

13,43

15,93

5,64

6,28

28,67

Thuong nghi(p phat tri$n nhanh chi6m ty trpng cao trong ccr cttu cua
ngiinh d]ch vu. T6c dG tllng tritétng binh qu6n cua ngiinh thuong nghi(p giai
doan 1996 — 2000 la 10,309o. Nlif n 2000, ty trpng cua thirong nghi(p
chi6m 27,79Wo tdng 2,14Wo so viii ntim 1996. Su ph:it trién nhanh cua
hoat dGng thuong nghiep chting tfi nhu edu s:in xu6t va trao ddi héng ho:i
ngay céng tilng lén.
2.4. Chuyén d(ich co cau lao d§ng giiJb céc ngénh kinh té
Mac dii Ma trtin hach to:in xa h8i cua Vi(t nam kh8ng cho th8y dune
su thay do’i v8 s6 lupng lao dong giiia c:ie ngitnh kinh t8 nhimg qua su dong

gop ciia cac loai lao d ng vao su chuyén d)ch cc c6u kinh te” chiing ta cling
th6y dwac xu huéing chuyén d)ch cc c6u lao dong.
Trong hoat dong s:in xudt n8ng nghi(p, sén xuilt lira gao vén la hoat
d8ng chi8m ph 1‹in luc lupng lao d O,ng o ciic d)a phuong. Chf nh vi vtty,
ph8n gi:i tri gia t g dupe tao ra tu lao d6ng ciing chi8m ty trpng cao trong cc

clu giii tri gia t g ciia ngiinh nay. NO 2000, phiin gi:i tri, gia t g cua s:in
xuat lira dupe tao ra tir lira chiém 54,42'7o. Trong dfi phtin gi:i tri. gia tting dupe

tao ra tit lao d 6ng kh0ng co chuy6n mon ky thu0t la 46,fifiRo, Chi co
0,979o gi:i tri gia tang dune tao ra tit lao ddng co trinh d8 chuy8n m6n ky

thu9t cao.
Trong hoat d8ng st xudt c8ng nghi(p, ngufin v8n giii vat trii hCt siic
quan trong tao ra phtin 16n gi:i tri gia tiing, lao d‹5ng ‘ giii vat tro quan trpng.

Tuy nhién, trong hoat dGng situ xult c8ng nghi(p ph8n gi:i tri. gia tiing do lao

14


ding kh8ng co trinh d chuy6n m8n ky thu8t vén chiem phiin l6n gi:i tri gia
Trong hoat dGng dich vp, cci cau gia lr[ gia t g trong hoat dGng nay
kha da dang, va cite s8 li(u trung binh trong hoat d()ng nay kh0ng noi lén
dupe nhi6u dim. Nguy6n nh8n la cac ngénh dich vu dune tao ra va thuc hi(n
big cac cC›ng ngh( rht khiic nhau. Trong khi x$y dijiig si'i dung nhi8u v0n va
may moc l6n, thi ngiinh thucmg nghi(p lai sit dung nhi6u ky thu8t va may
moc nho. Ngupc lai, cac ngimh dJch vu ca nhttn va d(ch vu, c8ng d8ng co tren
909c gia tri gia t g thu ie v6 y8u t6 lao d8ng.

Kinh t6 nha nucic tie’p tuc phat trim in
o nhfmg ngiinh va nhfmg
linh c quan trong trong rim kinh th qufic d8n. B6n canh do, c:ie thiinh ph
kinh
té ti8p tuc ph:it huy tGt nhfmg th6 manh cua minh d6 phiit trién, gop phtin
quan trong vao su t g truéng va phdt trién cua n8n kinh tfl.

Hfi nfing d6n la thiinh phtin cci b:in cua kinh ID nGng nghi(p va n6ng
thon vé sG lupng. Téing s6 hé› nong d6n vao thiii diém 10J2001 la 13,07 tri(u

da taTl t3,9fio so v6i théi difim 7/1994. 56 h6 nGng d6n ciing thiii didm co
58,4 tri(u nhln kh$u, tiing 6,99o so v‹ii 1994. M6t trong nhfmg nguyfin

nh6n chinh ciia vi(c din s8 thiinh thi tiing ch8m la do d8 thi hoa ch9m. Su
chuydn dich cc chu thiinh phlin kinh te da tae d6ng manh me‘ d6n su thay d8i
cua c:ie thé che trong nudc, c:ie quan h( kinh te trci nen r6ng mci hon.

Hoat ddng ciia cac doanh nghi(p trong nhfmg niim vita qua da dong vat
tro quan trpng trong vi(c thiic d6y su phat trim kinh tC xa hfii. Theo nhiing so
lieu ducic tit Ma trtin Hach toan xa h0i, trong giai doan 1996 — 2000, Vi(t nam
da co su chuyén bi6n kha rii net trong hoat d6ng cua cac doanh nghi@, gia tri
gia t g tit cac doanh nghi(p khong ngimg tang fin, thu nh8p ciia nguéii lao

15