Giáo trình Quản trị tài chính doanh nghiệp: Phần 2 - PGS.TS. Phạm Quang Trung

C huong8
CAC QUYET OiNH VA PHAN TICH
VE CHI PHI DAU TU
Cac nha quan ly trong tat ca cac cong ty phat xem xet cac
' r \ \ x
quyet djnh quan trong lien quan den cac luong tien sau nhieu
w r f
nam. Cac quyet dinh do lien quan den nhung ket qua thu duqc
tu cac tai san ma cong ty da dau tu nhu: may moc, phucmg tien
f t t
giao thong, nha cua, dat dai. Cac quyet dinh khac co the lien
r •% r
quan den nhung thay doi quan trong cua qua trinh san xuat hoac
r x t v
vice lap them mot day chuyen san xuat san pham, djch vu mai
f X
va anh hucrng tai cac hoat dong cua cong ty. Cac quyet dinh dau
tu do anh huang lan tai vi the canh tranh cua cong ty.
8.1. Cac quyet djnh dau tir
/ * > \ 1
Cac quyet dinh lien quan tai luong tien vao va luong tien
r f x
ra trong cac nam tiep theo dugc goi la cac quyet djnh dau tu.
Cac quyet djnh nay thuang dugc xem xet dai han va co tac dong
nhieu nam.
/ \
Cac quyet dinh dau tu thudng dugc xem xet cho cac du an
1 '
X t
hoac chuang trinh cu the. Doanh nghiep can xem xet ve tiet
i /

kiem chi phi co the tao ^a dugc tir viec mua mot he thong may
mdi hien co bii dap dugc chi phi mua ban dau va chi phi trong
hoat dong hay khong? Ngay ca cac to chirc phi Igi nhuan cung
107
can phai xcm xct trong quyet dinh dau tir nlur vay. Yi du, eo'iig
ty A phai xcm xct cac van de nlur viec sir dung kem hieu q]ua
cua cac may loc khong klii ma cong ty dang sir dung, xcm xct
den chat luong san pham co phai do van de nay gay ra khong.
Rat kho dinh luong khi no khong dirge tinh vao chi phi ngay ilap
tuc. nhung vice danh gia rat quan trong trong ra quyet dinh dlau
tu co ban.
Hon nua, khi nha quan ly ra cac quyet dinh ve n:ioi
phuang an khac nhau c„.a cac clurong trinh, dir an cu the, to'ng
i
r
the cong ty se lien quan den cac hoat dong, cac clurong triinh
hay du an dau tu khac cua cong ty. Chung ta co the nhin nhian
qua trinh thuc hien cua du an tren mot nam khi chuyen doi ccac
/ f \
ket qua cua tat ca cac du an ve nam hien tai. Hinh sau day mc> ta
du an nay bang cac diem tuong trimg cac hoat dong cua du am.
Ifin/i H-8.1. Mot to clurc nlur la mot sir tup hop cua cac dir an
va cac cltir&ng trinh
Cac du an hoac chuong trinh
C
B
A
1 2 3 4 5 6
Nam
Cac quyet djnh dau tu trong cac dir an dai han thirong tao

108
tin'n: mot bg phan cua qua trinh xay d u n ; ke hoach chien luge.
( ac .Liu Ur Ion tron>i cong nghe san xu.a va vice mua sam cac
tai s;n co ma tri Ion duac thirc hien co the dan toi cac thay doi,
nangcao nang suat va tinh canh tranh cita cac cong ty.
8.2. Qua tr inh duvet dir an dau tu
■» /
Sue manh iau dai cua mot cong t\ co the bj anh hudng rat
f \ \
l>Vn Idi cac quyct dinh dau tu co ban, vi vay nhieu cong ty ldn
cd qi y trinh duyet du an dau tir rat phuc tap, thudng bi bat buoc
thue hien theo dung quy cach. Cac bieu mau cu the dugc sir
dung va cac yeu cau dugc xem xet vdi nhieu cap do quan ly.
Hau let cac tong cong ty ldn d Viet Nam cd phong ke hoach
dau tx hoac Ban dau tu cd chirc nang phan tich cac de an dau tu.
■> ^ \
Qua trinh tham djnh va phe duyet mot dir an dau tu gom 6
bueVe
% r
B uoc 1: De xuat du an
Trong nhieu cong ty ldn, cac du an dugc cac nha quan ly
cua. cong ty de xuat y tudng va chi dao qua trinh xay dung de
an. Sr lira chon dir an can phu hgp vdi kc hoach chien luge phat
■» f
tiien )di cac nha quan ly cong ty va veVi cac dudng loi chi dao,
lien cuan den dir an nao co the dugc chap nhan cho cong ty. Cac
nhat cuan ly vdi su than trpng, sir suy xet cita minh khong chap
•t
thu;ar cac du an mac du co the phu hgp vcri cong ty, bdi vi ho
can.i hay cac du an do co mot sd rui ro cho ho hoac cac don vi

ma ho phu trach.
x \
Buoc 2: Gia djnh va phan tich cat. luong tien cua du an
Cac luong tien ciia du an phai dugc tinh cho toan bo thdi
giam on tai ciia dir an. Co nhieu cong cu dung de phan tich cac
luditu tien, mot so cong cu trong so dd dugc gidi thieu trong
clnrrcng khac ciia giao trinh nay. Trong thue te, co mot sd nha
109
quan ly lap dir an da co tinh lam cho cac luong tien trong de an
dau tu cua ho tang tinh hap dan. Vice phat hien ra nhung gian
f *
lan do thucrng la kho neu cac nha quan lv do co kien thuc sau
rong ve hoat dong kinh doanh cua ho va thi truong cua ho.
B uac 3: Qua trinh phe duyet d u an dau lie
Cac muc do tham quyen de duyet cac de an dau tu la khac
nhau giua cac cong ty. Chi phi cua mot du an cang Ion thi nguoi
% \ \ f
co tham quyen phe duyet du an phai co vi tri cang cao. Hau net,
f > * x
cac nha quan ly cap cao moi dugc phep duyet cac de nghi dau tu
* r r
co ban quan trong, nguoi de xuat du an phai ’ban1 cac ke hoach
* 9
de xuat cua ho cho cac nha quan ly trong cong ty. Qua trinh nay
\ *
can co su quan ly Nha nuoc khi trong nhieu cong ty co canh
tranh manh vi gioi han nguon luc. Nguoi quan ly can tap hop sir
i y f
ung ho cho du an cua ho va chuan bj cac ly le de thuyet phuc tai
W ^

sao du an cua minh lai tot hon cac du an khac. Cac phan tich ve
f \ ^ ^
so lieu tai chinh chi la mot khia canh cua de an dau tu. Can co
cac y kien phan tich, tranh luan cua nguoi co tham quyen de
chumg minh ve su chap thuan cua du an: thuong duoc thuc hien
tren co so nhung luan cu chien luge, marketing, tai chinh hoac
moi trudng.
B uac 4. Phan tich va lua chon du an
' • ' *
Theo cac hoat dong xuc tien thuc hien cua nguoi de xuat
du an, du an se dugc tham dinh va lua chon boi cac nha quan ly
1 ^
co tham quyen cua cong ty.
B ua c 5. Trien khai thuc hien du an
' f
Cac du an da dugc phe duyet se dugc trien khai. Cac van
de lien quan la xay dung hoac mua sam tai san moi, tuyen cac
nhan vien moi va dao tao cac nhan vien cu.
B uac 6: Kieni tra, danh gid m uc do hoan thanh d u an
110
kc; hoach han dau va dir tinh cac luon:.; tien. Tien trinh bao cao
dira tren ket qua cita dir an trong ky hoat dong hoac kv tai chinh.
Tat nhien, khong phai tat ca cac dir an dugc phe duyet
th eo cac buac tren. Trong cac cong ty nho, cac buac tien hanh
khac xa voi mau tren. Trong cac cong ty Ion, giam doc cac dan
» * ' 9 s
v] kinh doanh true thuoc co tham quyen ra quyet djnh dau tu ca
biin ma khong can phe duyet cua tong cong ty, vi du quan ly bo
phan san xuat co the chi can sir phe duyet cho du an dau tu cua
r

gi am doc chi nhanh vai gia trj du an hon 15.000 USD.
/ r \
Sau day, chung ta se xem xet chi tiet han van de quan
trong dugc thue hien nhu la mot phan cua qua trinh dau tu.
8.3. Cac cong cu phan tich dy an dau tu'
Cac cong ty co quyet dinh thirc hien hay khong mot du an
X f X
d;au tu nhu the nao? R5 rang cac anh huang ve tai chinh cua du
an phai dugc xem xet. Do la, cac chi phi cua moi du an phai
durgc so sanh vai cac !gi ich ma cong ty se nhan dugc tu thue
hiien du an. Trong quyet dinh chi dau tu, cac chi phi va Igi ich
* ' ' 1
cl(6 phat sinh trong nhieu nam, chung dirge coi la cac luong tien
X X ' X X
v;ao va luong tien ra theo timg ky. Luong tien ra bao gom cac
cltii phi ban dau cua du an va cac chi phi phat sinh trong qua
/
trinh hoat dong, chi phi nay se phat sinh suot qua trinh thue hien
X X x /
dtu an. Luong tien vao bao gom tiet kiem chi phi va doanh thu
/ • X
tamg them tu ket qua thirc hien dir an va so tien lai tir ban cac tai
sain. Vi du, neu cong ty A dang nghien ciru ve viec mua mot day
« X ' ' 1 * ' '
clhuyen mai. luong tien ra se bao gom so tien mua may ban dau
v;a sir phat sinh cac chi phi khac khi may mai dugc dua vao hoat
d<ong trong suot du an. Luong tien vao tuang img se bao gom:
so tien thu dugc tir ban may cu. chi phi tiet kiem dirge tir khi sir
diing may moi, va gia tri dugc ket chuven lai tir khi ket thuc dir
an mua may mai nay.

Co nhieu cong cu khac nhau de phan tich cac luong tien
do nhu: thai gian hoan von, ty suat Igi tire ke toan, luong tien
ft \ \ r
chiet khau (DCF). Hai cong cu dau khong de cap den gia trj thai
gian cua luong tien. Do dugc gia dinh rang mot dong nhan dirge
trong tucmg lai co gia tri bang mot dong nhan ngay hom nay.
\ \ t r t '
Cong cu luong tien chiet khau do xem xet cu the anh fnrang den
gia tri thoi gian cua luong tien. Cac luong tien lien quan den dir
J f '
an nay dugc gia dinh va tong ket trong cot thu nhat cua bang
8.1. Co khoan tien chenh lech giua luong tien ra va luong tien
vao va luong tien ra cua bo phan phuc vu va cua cong ty la rong,
khong bao gom cac phan tich khi chung khong thich hop voi
, ' ’ * A
quyet dinh dau tu. Bai vi chung se khong thay doi o bat ky
1 / X / '
phucrng an nao. Ban co the thay rang tiet kiem chi phi co xu
huong tai nam nam, de gia dinh vugt ra ngoai thai gian lien
p \ r r t #
quan den nhieu yeu to khong on dinh.
Bang B-8.1. M ay CT - cac luong tien cho hai phitffng an
Dan vi tinh: USD
P/a 1: Mua them
mot may CT mai
P/a 2: Thay may
CT cu bang may
CT mai
Dau tu ban dau (thai diem 0)
(585.000)

(676.000)
Chi phi mua may (74.715)
0
Phi lap dat
0
Thu tir ban may cu
150.000
* 1
Dau tu rong (thai diem 0)
(659.715)
(526.000)
\ *
Luong tien tir nam 1 -5
(107.000)
63.000
112
lan^'tiet kiem chi phi hoat
d o n :
90.000
; I
i * i
0 1
1
I)Oc:nh thu tang them do tang
kha njng hoat dong
200.000
80.000
i
T ie’ kiem do giam thai gian
cho cua benh nhan noi tru

0
i
(15.000)
Phi dao tao nhan vien sir dung
may moi (nam thir 1)
183.000
128.000 (nam tlu'r
1), 143.000 (nam
thir 2-5)
Tiet kiem chi phi hang nam
Gia mua may dugc gia dinh la 585.000 do la va chi phi
f X
lap dat la 74715 do la. Vi vay chi phi ban dau dugc gia dinh la
659.715 do la. Chi phi them cho thay the cac bo phan, chi phi
dich vu va hoa chat se la S107.000/moi nam. Co hoi tang them
doanh thu do tang them kha nang lam viec cua bo phan phuc vu
dugc gia dinh la 90.000 do la moi nam. Tiet kiem do giam thai
gian cho cua khach hang la 200.000 do la mot nam
8.4. Cac phan tich su- dung luong tien chiet khau
i \ \ f r >
Be su dung nguyen ly luong tien chiet khau de phan tich
f \ t \
quyet dinh dau tu co ban cua cong ty A, truoc het chung ta can
■> % ^ ^
hieu khai niem co ban ve gid tri (hai gian cua luong den. Ban
muon nhan 100 trieu dong trao ngay ngay hom nay hay 100
x \ * r *
trieu dong vao ngay nay nam sau. Hau het tat ca chung ta muon
nhan tien ngay hom nay. Hai ly do giai thich sir lira chgn nay.
f f y

Ly do thu nhat, neu chung ta nhan dugc tien hom nay, chung ta
sc sir dung no ngay thay vi phai dgi den nam sau. Ly do thu hai,
\ X 9
chung ta se dau tu 100 trieu dong nhan dugc voi lai suat 7%, khi
t \
do euoi nam chung ta se co 107 trieu dong. Vi vay gia tri thoi
113
gian di cimg vdi tien to. Do do 100 trieu dung chung ta cc nga\
horn nay se khong ngang bang vai 100 trieu dong sau mo: nam ,
hai nam, hay nnrcri nam.
Khi phan tich luong tien kco dai trong nhieu nam. phan
tich chi dung khi dua tat ca gia tri tien trong cac nam vc cung
> \ \
mot thai diem. Phuang phap phu hop de sir dung la luong tien
chiet khau, cong cu nay se tinh toan gia tri theo thai gian cua
^ > \ r r \ \
luong tien. Chung ta can chiet khau luong tien trong ttrang lai
1 x *
de lam chung ngang bang ve gia tri hien tai.
Co hai nguyen ly dugc sir dung rong rai trong phan tich
f r \ \
chiet khau cac luong tien: nguyen ly gia tri hien tai rong va ty
f f
suat hoan von noi tai. Moi nguyen ly do se duac sir dung de
phan tich cac luong tien lien quan den quyet dinh mua may cua
cong ty A.
8.4.1. Nguyen ly gia tri hien tai rong
Nguyen ly gia tri hien tai rong xac dinh gia tri hien tai cua
^ ^ *
cac luong tien trong tucmg lai cua mot du an de lam can cir

/ \
phan tich. Phan tich gia tri hien tai rong cita mot ke hoach dau
tu gom 4 buac:
* \ \
B ua c 1: Lap bang the hien cac luong tien moi nam cua du
%
an dau tu.
B uac 2: Tinh toan gia tri hien tai rong cua moi luong tien,
sir dung lai suat chiet khau la ty le sinh lai nho nhat dugc chap
nhan de dau tu cua cong ty. No thirang dung de do luang chi
t
phi von cua cong ty.
*
B ua c 3: Tinh gia tri hien tai rong (NPV), la tong gia tri
hien tai rong cua cac luong tien trong tirng giai doan thai gian.
114
Hia/c 4: Neu NPV duong (NPV > 0). co nghTa dir an kha
thi dira tren phuang dien tai chinh. NPV cang cao, du an cang
kha thi han va duac lira chon. Tuy nhien can luu y rang thong
tin tai chinh chi la mot khfa canh do dira vao do ra quyet dinh.
Chien lirac hay cac cong cu dinh lirang khac co the du kha nang
va co trong luong trong cac quyet dinh quan ly
8.4.1.1. Xcic dinh N P V cua cac luong tien trong du an
mua them mot m ay m ai (M).
y y
Luong tien lien quan tai du an mua them may M (phuang
an 1) duac ghi trong bang 8.1. Trong bang 8.2, cac luong tien
ciugc trinh bay theo cach de lam rd thcri gian thue hien cua moi
' > x i
luong tien. Dau tu ban dau mua may M duac coi tai thai diem

goc bang 0. Moi luong tien cua moi nam tir nam thu 1 den nam
thir 5 duac chiet khau ve thai diem 0, su dung NPV de chiet
khau moi luong tien vai lai suat chiet khau la 10%/nam. Cach
de nhat de tim gia tri hien tai rong cho moi luong tien la su dung
cac bang gia tri hien tai.
*
8.4.1.2. Quyet dinh dua tren gid tri hien tai rong (NPV)
f
Phan tich gia tri hien tai rong cho thay mua them mot may
M (so tien 659.715 USD) se thu duac tiet kiem chi phi doanh
thu tang them (gia tri hien tai la 693.570 USD) tuc la se cao han
chi phi ban dau. Gia tri hien tai cua luong tien vao se cao han
• 9 • % '
gia tri hien tai luong tien ra la 35.855 do la. Vi vay theo phan
tich NPV phuang an 1 la kha thi.
8.4.2. Nguyen ly ty suat hoan vdn noi bo
Mot nguyen ly khac cung dung de chiet khau cac luong
• i . ' ' >
tien trong phan tich du an dau tu la nguyen ly ty suat hoan von
noi bo. Ty suat hoan von noi bo duac dir an thu lai qua cac
115
hoat dong kinh doanh trong suot dai dir an. Mot phirong an Khac
dung de chiet khau la ty suat noi hoan la t\ le chiet khau td do
eia tri hien tai morm muon thu lai luomz tien vao imane bam: vai
V - ' . * • V.V - ». ^ v.
gia tri hien tai cua luong tien. vi vay 1RR la lai chiet khai: ma
vai lai suat do thi NPV cua luong tien bang 0.
Hang B-S.2. Nguyen ly gia tri hien tai rong: Phuang (in 1
Don vi: USD
Tong gia tri Gia tri hien tai Cac luong tien moi nam

hien tai cua SI vai 10% 0 1 2 3 4 5
Dau tu ban dau
Tiet kiem chi
phi hang nam
(659.715)
1,000 (651.000)
166.347 0,909
183.000
151.158
0,826
183.000
137.433
0,751
183.000
124.989
0,683
183.000
113.643
0,621
183.000
T6ng ti5t kiem chi phi: 693.570 USD
Gia trj hien tai rong: 33.855 USD
Ty suat hoan von noi bo cua dir an mua may M (phuang
an 1) la bao nhieu? Trong phan truac du an danh gia theo NPV
la kha thi, vai lai suat chiet khau la 10%. Vay IRR se cao hern
hay thap han lai suat chiet khau (i = 10%). Lai suat chiei khau
duac sir dung trong tinh NPV cang cao thi gia tri hien tai cua tat
ca cac luong tien trong tuang lai cang thap. Bai vi lai suat chiCrn
liroc cao nghTa la mong muon thu duac hoi von nhanh. Vi vay
t f -

trong vi du lai suat chien luac cao han 10% se lam cho gia tri
116
hi<;n tai rung dan tai ().
S / 2. 1. Xac dinh IRR
IRR co the duac tinh theo cong time sau:
n
P = I Ct/(1 + r)"
t=l
P: Chi phi ban dau
Ct: Gia tri luong tien rong duac tao ra hai du an trong giai
doan t
n: So nam cua du an
r: IRR
Tat nhien co the tim IRR de ban bang each su dung may
tinh tai chinh va cac phuang trinh phan mem nhu excel. Ngoai
ra chung ta sir dung nguyen ly thir va loai trir. Bang cac thu
nhieu Iai chiet khau vao cong thirc tren, co the xac djnh IRR
chinh xac cho du an. Dav la lai suat ma tai do NPV = 0. Tuv
nhien nguyen ly nay tuang doi kho neu luong tien trong moi
f 9 9
giai doan la khac nhau. Bang 8.3 cho thay lai chiet khau la 12%,
NPV = 0.
Vi vay IRR cua du- an mua may M (phircmg an 1) la
12%
117
Being B-8.3. Nguyen ly ty su noi hoan: phuang an I
Dan vi tinh: USD
Tong gia tri
Gia tri hien tai
Cac luong tien raoi nam

hien tai cua SI vai 10% 0 1 2 3 4 5
\ \
Dau tu ban dau
(659.715)
1,000
(651.000)
r— 163.419
0,893
183.000
Tiet kiem chi
145.851 0,797 183.000
phi hang nam
130.296
0,712
183.000
116.388 0,636
183.000
— 103.761
0,56
183.000
* T6ng tiet kiem chi phi: 659.715 USD
Gia tri hien tai rong: 0 USD
8.4.2.2. Cac quyet dinh dua tren IRR
Bay gia chung ta tinh duac IRR la 12%. Cong ty A su
i f f
dung thong tin nay de ra quyet dinh nhu the nao?
Mot de an dau tu duac chap thuan ve phuang dicn tai
chinh neu IRR Ion han lai suat chiet khau 10%. Vi vay, theo
r r \ > it f
phan tich chiet khau luong tien thi co the chap nhan phuang an

mua mot may M mai.
/ f f '
Ket luan: van dung nguyen ly IRR khi chiet khau luong
*
tien theo cac buac sau:
• Lap mot bang ve cac luong tien moi nam cua ke hoach
dau tu. Cac luong tien do giong cac luong tien dung de tinh
118
NPV (cot 1).
• Tinh IRR cho du an dau tu. Sir dung may tinh tai chinh
hoac chuong trinh phan mem. Co trudng he rp dung phuong
phap thu va loai tru de tim lai suat chiet khau tai do NPV = 0.
• Neu IRR lan han lai suat chien luge thi du an kha thi
ve phuang dien tai chinh.
8.4.3. S o sanlt hai cong cu N P V va IR R
Trong truong hop nay NPV va IRR deu ung ho phuong an
mua may M moi. Khi xem xet viec chap thuan hay loai bo mot
X
du an, nguyen ly thuong hoac ca hai cong cu deu ung ho hoac
x /
ca hai cong cu cung khong ung ho de xuat du an.
8.4 .3.1. Cac iru diem cua viec ap dung phucmg phdp N PV
Nguyen ly NPV co nhieu uu diem han nguyen ly IRU.
f \ X
Mot la, neu tinh toan trong phan tich du an dau tu bang phuang
phap thu cong, each tinh NPV la de han tinh IRR. Uu diem nay
khong con quan trong khi sir dung may vi tinh hoac may tinh tai
chinh de tinh toan.
l/u diem thu hai cua nguyen ly NPV la su phan tich co the
x / f f \ \ \

dieu chinh rui ro. Doi voi mot so ke hoach dau tu, cac luong tien
thue hien trong tuang lai cang xa, tinh on djnh cua cac phan tich
x A X X X X
ve do lan ciia luong tien se cang it han. Vi vay, cac luong tien
X / f 1
cua du an keo dai, nhieu yeu to rui ro co the xay ra. Phan tich
NPV eo the su dung lai suat chiet khau cao hon khi tinh NPV
*
cua du an co dai dir an dai han. Khong the dir phong rui ro
trong each tinh IRR bcri vi khi phan tich chi tinh lai suat chiet
f
khau trung binh, IRR ciia du an.
l/u diem thir ba, NPV luon chi nhan dugc mot ket qua.
119
Khi luong tien thay doi tir duang sang am ngoai doi du an, co
nhieu IRR dugc tinh cho mot dir an. Dieu nay co the xay ra. neu
co luong tien am trong nam thu 3. nam thu 4. 5 la duong v.'t am
trong nam thu 6.
\
8.4.3.2. Gia dinh tai dau tic
0 * r
Uu diem cuoi cung cua NPV so vai IRR lien quan toi gia
dinh tai dau tu ngam dinh trong nguyen ly IRR. Trong nguyen
ly IRR, cac luong tien co kha nang dicn ra suot du an dugc gia
dinh dugc tai dau tu vai lai suat bang lai suat IRR cua dir an.
\ - I
r r
Dieu gia djnh nay co the khong thuc te neu IRR cua du an cao
f r f r
han lai suat chiet khau. NPV lam gia dinh nay tra thanh thuc te

\ \ % t g f /
khi cac luong tien duac tai dau tu vai lai suat chict khau.
Nhuac diem cua IRR so vai NPV lien quan tai su sap xep
cua du an. Sir dung IRR co the dan tai cac quyet dinh kem chinh
r \
xac han so vai sir dung cong cu NPV. Cac van de nay dugc thao
luan trong phan cuoi cua chuang. Noi chung cong cu NPV
thuang dugc sir dung nhieu han cong cu IRR khi danh gia du an
\
dau tu.
8.4.4. Cac phan tich chiet khau luong tien theo cac gia
dinh
Giong nhu bat cir mot mo hinh quyet dinh nao, nguyen ly
chict khau luong tien dua trcn cac gia djnh. Ngoai gia dinh tai
\ / r ' \
dau tu dugc trinh bay a trcn, nguyen ly chiet khau luong tien
dua trcn hai gia djnh quan trong:
• Thai diem kct thuc cua luong tien: Trong tinh toan gia
tri hien tai dugc sir dung trong nguyen ly NPV va IRR, tat ca
luong tien dugc coi la tinh vao cuoi nam. Tuy nhien, neu cong
ty A mua may M so tien tien 183.000 do la thu dugc moi nam
120
do tiet kiem chi phi va doanh tim lane them se dirge thue hien a
cac thoi diem khac nhau trout.: nu;i nam. Khi .sir dune may dien
toan yeu cau phan anh chinh xac thoi gian eua moi luong tien se
lam rac roi hon cho pluin tich dau tu. Han che khi sir dung quy
irac thai gian linh moi luon" tien vao cuoi nam noi chung la
khong anh huang Ion tiri sir phan tich dau tu.
• Sir on dinh cua luong tien: Chiet khau luong tien phan
tich xem cac luong tien co thich hgp voi du dau tu hay khong

khi chiing dugc coi la on djnh. Mae du trong cac phuang phap
phan tich dau tu neu cac yeu to khong on dinh da dugc phat
trien, chiing khong dugc sir dung rong trong thue te. Nhu dugc
de cap a tren, su dieu chinh do rui ro dugc thue hien trong phan
tich NPV de tinh cac kha nang hien doi khong on dinh ciia
luong tien.
Trong thue te, cac gia dinh do hiem khi dugc dap ung.
Tuy nhien, mo hinh chiet khau cac luong tien tao ra nguyen ly
sir dung rong rai va hieu qua trong phan tich dau tu.
8.4.4.1. Xac dinh ty le chiet khdu (Discount Rate)
/ / % ' r r \ \
Ty le chiet khau sir dung de chiet khau luong tien trong
phan tich NPV, hay lai suat hoan von trong nguyen ly IRR, no
f 0
thuang dugc dura tren chi phi von trung binh. Chi phi von la
khoan tien can bu dap so von da dau tu cho mot du an. Mot du
an moi tang them gia tri von cho cac co dong bang cach tao
luong tien lan han chi phi nguon von da sir dung trong du an
dau lu.
Chi phi von dugc tinh toan dira tren chi phi ciia tat ca cac
loai von cua mot cong ty. Cac cong ty tao nguon von nhu the
nao? Chinh phii va cac don vi kinh doanh ciia Nha nuac thuang
121
vay von bam; each phat hanh lrai phieu hoac vav cac to chirc tai
chinh. Cac cony ty lien doanh lao cac nguon von bang cacti phat
hanh co phieu. hoac vay muon. Vi vay. chi phi \ on so la chi phi
trung binh cua cac nguon von do.
Danh gia du an, lai suat chict khau dira trcn chi phi \'6n
trung binh, do do no dugc dieu chinh cac rui ro cho phu hgp vai
tung dir an cu the.

Vai lai suat 10% dung de chiet khau cac luong tien moi
nam trong du an mua may M. Muc lai nay dugc tinh bdi vi no la
chi phi von trung binh cua cong ty tra cho nguon von vay.
r ft
8.4.5. Cac quyet dinh cua chi p h i thap nhat
* » ^
Trong mot so truang hgp chi phi dau tu ca ban co the
dugc phe duyet bai nha quan ly tham chi du an NPV < 0 hoac
IRR nho han lai suat chiet khau. Vi du, cong ty dau tu he thong
may tinh de cung cap cac loai dich vu cho khach hang va cung
cap cac thong tin cho nguai quan ly. Tuy nhien, rat kho trong
dinh lugng luong tien vao tang them, tuc la cac khoan nhan
f \
dugc va cac lap luan chii yeu ve cac khoan nhan dugc. Chiing ta
se hoan thanh viec phan tich chiet khau cac luong tien nhung
muc tieu se dugc lua chon phuang an co chi phi thap. Day la
/ p 9 r \
quyet dinh chi phi thap nhat: han la toi da hoa NPV cua luong
tien vao trir di luong tien ra, muc tieu la toi thicu NPV cua chi
phi phat sinh.
f r f *
Vi du khac ma quyet dinh chi phi thap nhat co the dugc
thuc hien la: mua thiet bi an toan, chi phi cho cac thiet bi dc dap
ung cac yeu cau ve chat lugng moi truang. nlur la die u klnen
khong khi hay sir dung chat thai.
122
Khi tai san dai han dirge mua. chi phi thu hoi ciia tai san
do duac tinh nizirac vai loi nhuan tronu nhieu uiai doan banu
khau hao. Tuy nhien, chung ta khong cong chi phi khau hao vao
trong phan tich luong tien. Ca NPV va IRR tap trung chu yeu

tren cac luong tien, va chi phi khau hao dinh ky khong phai la
X X /
luong tien. Gia sir cong ty A khau hao tai san sir dung phuong
phap khau hao duong thang, va thoi gian sir dung may M la 5
/
nam. Neu cong ty mua them mot may vdi gia la 659.715 do la
thi ty le hao mon se nhu sau:
Chi phi ban dau: S659.715
M uc khdu hao hang nam theo phuang phap duong thang (D)
D = S I31943 D = S 131943 D = S131943 D = S131943 D = $131943
(V.4.6). Khau hao tai sau
Thai
gian
Nam 1
Nam 2
Nam 3 Nam 4 Nam 5
Chi phi ban dau, Chi phi khau hao khong phai la cac
ludng tien la mot luong tien ra.
\ x % \
Tuy nhien chi co luong tien 659.715 do la la luong tien
dien ra de thu hoi cho may mai. Khoan tien 131.943 do la la so
tien khau hao hang nam khong phai la luong tien. Vi vay, chiing
ta ghi chi phi thu hoi duac la mot luong tien trong phan tich dau
tu, nlurnu chiinu ta khonu ehi mire khau hao hany nam, chiina
khong phu lujp trong phan tich chiet khau luong tien.
123
H.4J). 1 Khau hao irony, cac cony, ty phai )i(p thuC
Gia su quyet dinh dau Ur cr ban da tinrc hien, con;’. ty,
mot to cln'rc trong kinh doanh co tnich nhiem phai nop thuc thu
nhap. Vi du, Cong ty C co the xcm xct mua mot lie thong may

tinh. Dieu nay se thay doi sir giai quyet cua chung ta ve khau
hao hang nam trong phan tich luong tien - khau hao van khong
phai la luong tien. Tuv nhicn, khau hao gan vai sir khau trir
thue. Thanh toan thue la cac luong tien, va giam thuc do khau
hao dugc tinh trong phan tich cac luong tien. Chucmg tiep theo
t \ *
se xcm xct anh huang cua thue ve khau hao tai san trong phan
tich chi phi dau tu.
•x
8.4.7. So sanh haiphiro’ng an dau tu
Chung ta thay co hai giai phap de giai quyet van de cua
cong ty. Phuang an 1 la mua mot may M mai. Cac tranh luan
ung ho manh me phuang an nav, va no cung dugc ung ho bai
f r \ \
phan tich chiet khau luong tien, thu dugc NPV duang va IRR la
12%, cao hem lai suat chict khau la 10%. Phuang an hai la thay
the may M cu bang may M mai.
Cac luong tien lien quan tai ca hai phuang an ducrc mo ta
trong bang 8.2. Chung ta xcm xct su so sanh giCra hai phucmg an
^ / r \ *
bang cach sir dung cong cu chiet khau luong tien. Bang 8.4 dua
ra gia tri hien tai rong cua hai phuang an. Gia tri hien tai rong
cua phuang an mua them mot may M mai dugc so sanh vcri gia
tri hien tai rong cua phuang an thay the may M. Trong khi
NPV cua ca hai phuang an deu lan han 0; NPV cua phuang an
1 cao han cua phuang an 2 la 31.520 do la.
124
fu n r.; !l-n.4. Phan tich i’id tri hien ta i ru n :/ cua die an may M
Dan vi tinh: USD
j

Phuong an 1
j
0
j
1
! i
1
i
3
[Chi phi mua J
f
5x5000)j
I
1
j
Phi lap dat
J I
i (74715,
1 j .
jTiet kieni chi phi
! 1 107000
! i
|
0/I H >
j 107000
107000
107000
iDoanh thu tanu
*-
9000

7.H j(
1
; 9000
9000
9000
Tiet kiem do giam thoi
jgian doi cua khach hang
200000
200000
20O00U
j
| 200000
I
200000 200000
Toni’ cong luong tien
(959715)
I S3000
j 1S3o(uj
!
| 183000
183000
183000
Thua so chiet khau
xl
x 0,907
j x 0.826
1
i x 0.751
i
x 0,683 x 0,621

Gia trj hien tai cua
luong tien
(659715)
166347
| 15115S
1
1
1 137433
1
124989
113643
NPV
3 3 S 5 5
Phuong an 2
0
A*
1
>
[ 4
i
P
5
6
Gia mua may
(676000)
So tien ban mav cu
150000
1
|

Tiet kiem chi phi
63000
1
63000 j
I
63000 ,
63000
63000
Tiet kiem do giam thai
gian dai cua khach hang
80000
1
80000
80000 80000 80000
Phi dao tao
(15000)
i
j
!
X \
T6nj> luong tien
(526000)
128000
1430000
143000
143000
143000
Thua so chiet khau
@ 1 0 %
1

0.909
i
i
1
0,826
i
________j
0,751
0,683
0,621
Gia tri hien tai cua
luon” tien
v >
(526000)
1 16.325
i
i
1
1
1
1
IS!
1
s |
1
. i
107393 97669 88803
NPV
2335
125

Chcnh lech gia tri hien tai rong cua pluron g an I va
phuang an 2 la: 31.520 do la.
8.4.7.1. IRR cua hai dir an
Chung ta da tinh IRR cua phuang an 1 la 12%. NPV cua
phuang an 2 la 2335 USD thap han NPV cua phuang .in 1,
chung ta du tinh la IRR xap xi 10%. IRR chinh xac duac tinh
bang phuang an thir va loai trir hoac bang bang tai chinh. IRR
cua phuang an 2 la 10.18%. So ngay duac kiem tra bang ciich
thay IRR vao NPV va tai mire lai suat do NPV = 0.
8.4.7.2. So sanh cac phan tich cua hai dir an m ua may M
Chung ta co thong tin tai chinh can cho bao cao cua chit
/ t \ \
du an. Phan tich chiet khau luong tien ling ho phuang an mua
them may M trong khi phuang an thay the may cu bang may
x r r r
mai co IRR gan vai lai suat chiet khau:
Phuang an 1 Phuang an 2
NPV (10%)
S33855
S2335
IRR
12%
10,18%
Trong truang hap nay ca phan tich NPV va IRR deu co
chung mot ket qua la phuang an 1 kha thi han phuang an 2.
Doi vai tSt ca cac du an, ket qua phan tich NPV va IRR
/ /
luon cung dua ra mot ket luan. Neu phan tich NPV va phan tich
IRR khong cung mot ket luan thi du an nao co NPV cao nhat se
\ t > *

duac chon. Do gia dinh la cac luong tien co the tai dau tu, cong
r
cu NPV luon dua ra ket luan dung han.
Chung ta thay ro chii du an tai cong ty dua ra cac tranh
luan co sire thuyet phuc cao hem doi vai yeu cau mua mot may
M mai han yeu cau thay the may cu. Ket qua phan tich tai chinh
126
ciini! mg ho phuang an I.
.)icu gi xay ra neu phuang an 2 o \ i’V cao han phuang
an 1 >eu phuang an i co NPV am? Bam: a, h chirng minh cac
iru ciiini Ion ve vice mua them mot ma\ M cac y kien tranh
luan co trong luang co the hieu qua hern cac ket qua tai chinh.
Olni du an ket luan rang phuang an lot nhat la mua mot
tin'lli not may M mai. Bao cao hoan chinh cua ba ta duac giri
leu bai giam doc cua cong ty cho phep ho xcm xet cac y kien
cua ibata va may mai duac dau tu nlur the nao. Trong bao cao,
t \
chu di an xem xct ca van de tai chinh va thong tin quan trong
/ /
khi xen cac y kien cua ba ta. Day la phuang phap ra quyet djnh
dau Hudien ra trong cac to chirc kinh doanh. Trong khi mot phan
tich vi khia canh tai chinh cua du an chinh xac la huu ich cho
r
/ \
vice qiyet djnh, ke hoach phai duqc ling ho manh me tu nhieu
X / % t
phut7n’ dien khac gom cac van de lien quan den canh tranh va
r
chicm kxorc.
f

1.5. Cac cong cu khac dung de phan tich cac ke hoach
dau te
ling dung cua cac nguyen ly chict khau luong tien la
chunig inh toan dugc cac gia tri thai gian cua tien.
'uy nhien, nha quan ly doi khi sir dung cac cong cu khac
de plhai tich cac luong tien cua mot du an dau tu. Cac cong cu
khac k: thai gian hoan von va ty le sinh lai ke toan. Doi khi cac
\ t t
cong cu do duac su dung dong thai vai phan tich chiet khau
luonjg ien doi khi no duac sir dung doe lap. Co nhieu ly do doi
vai rrnct cong ty de lua chon cac cong cu khac. Hay xem xet cac
* * t »
luoiv.g ien lien quan vai hai ke hoach dau ur cho bo phan dich
vu ciuacong ty A.
127
Thai gian hoan von cua ii' t dir an dau tir la so nam r.ia lai
do cac luong tien cua dir an dirge luy kc den mot khoan r.ia bu
dap dirge chi phi dau tir ban dau. Cong thirc tinh thai gian hoan
von:
i Von dau tir ban dau
I hai uian hoan von = —— i

rr

t :—:—
Luong tien moi nam
Trong cong thue thoi gian hoan von khong de cap den gia
\ % ' % t /
tri thai gian cua tien. Cac luong tien tu nam thu nhat den nam
f % *

thir nam giong nhau ve gia tri. Day chinh la mot han che.
Tinh thai gian hoan von cua du an mua them mot may M
mai nhau sau:
x 659715 .
Thai gian hoan von = - — = 3,61 nam.
Vi vay thai gian hoan von trong phuang an 1 la 4 nam.
8.5. J. 1. Nguyen ly thai gian hoan von vai cac luong tien
khong on dinh
Cong thue thai gian hoan von dan gian khong dung neu
* * > \ x
du an co luong tien khong deu. Thay vi cac luong tien phai dugc
\ f f \ * %
cong don hang nam den khi luy ke can bang vai von dau tu ban
\ f ' %
dau. Thai gian hoan von cho phuang an 2 co cac luong tien
khong deu dugc tinh nhu trong bang 8.5
o.5./. Aguycn ly thd'i gian oan von
/ * ^
Bring B-H. 5 Thai gian hoan von cua cac luong tien
\
khong dcu nhan: phuong an 2
1

!
Nam
Cac luong tien (do la)
Cac luong tien luy ke vao
| cuoi nam (do la)
0
(526.000) (526.000)

" “ T l
128.000 ^ (398.000)



1
I
2
143.000 (255.000)
3
143.000
(112.000)
[
4
,
143.000
31.000
5
143.000 174.000
/
Thoi gian hoan von la nam thu1 4
Theo nguyen ly thai gian hoan von, thai gian ho&n v6n
cua phuang an 2 cung nhu phuang an mot, la nam thu 4. Tuy
nhicn nguyen ly nay bo qua cac luong tien dien ra sau n&m thu 4
va khong xem xet den gia tri thai gian cua tien. Co hai han che
cua nguyen ly nay nhu sau.
f f
8.5.1.2. Nguyen ly thai gian hoan von: cac y kien tan
themh va phan hoi
f \

Nguyen ly thoi gian hoan von trong danh gia du an dau tu
co hai han che chu yeu sau:
• Bo qua gia tri thai gian cua tien: Nguyen ly thai gian
r \ \
hoan von gia dinh la luong tien nhan duac trong tuang lai cung
ngang bang ve gia tri cua luong tien nhan duac trong n&m hien
f \ r * 1 \
tai. Trong thuc te, chung ta can chiet khau cac luong tien trong
* ' ' > >
tuang lai de lam chung ngang bang ve gia tri vai cac luong tien
hien tai, bai vi cac Iti0 ii6 tien hien tai co the duac dau tu de thu
dugc lai trong tuang lai. Tuy nhien, trong khi nguyen ly thai
f r x
gian hoan von khong xem xet den gia tri thai gian cua tien,
129
khong co ly do giai thich tai sao chiet khau luong tien Um'ii '
dugc su dung trong cac phan tich nay. %
« Bo qua cac luong tien phat sinh sau thoi gian hoan von:
Chi co luong tien 6 giai doan cuoi cung ma von ban dau da
dugc bii dap dugc coi la phu hgp trong cac phan tich nay. va \ i
vay nguyen ly thai gian hoan von tao ra mot bite tranh khong
hoan chinh ve tai chinh eua du an dau tu. Tat ca cac luong tien
phat sinh sau thoi gian hoan von bi bo qua.
Mac du co cac ban che tren, phuong phap thoi gian hoan
/ r \
von dugc su dung rong rai trong thirc te, vi nhieu ly do.
- Dan gian: Chi tieu thai gian hoan von de hieu va de tinh
r » \ \
han so vcri nguyen ly chiet khau luong tien.
- Tao buc man che cho d u an dau tu: Nguyen l v thai gian

t y f r
hoan von dau tu cung ^ ap mot cong cu che dau du an dau tu.
Neu mot du an khong tim dugc tieu chuan thai gian hoan von,
nha quan ly co the tir choi du an mac du cac luong tien lan tiem
an dugc tinh trong tuang lai.
f s ' »
- Khan hiem tien: Khi mot cong ty bi khan hiem tien, cong
■> r f \ '
ty se lira chon cac dir an co the bu dap dugc von dau tu ban dau
ft f •*
trong thai gian ngan nhat. Mot cong ty it von co the khong doi
X f
dugc ky tra tien lan ciia mot du an vai thai gian hoan von lan,
nhung NPV kha thi. Tham chi trong cac truong hgp, no ncn sir
t / \ *
dung cimg vai mot phuang phap chiet khau luong tien.
f
- Cac rui ro cua du an: Cong cu thai gian hoan von cung
t ' . X
cap nhung cach nhin nhan riii ro ciia mot du an. Cac luong tien
thu duac trong thai gian sdm thi se on dinh ban cac luong tien
nhan dugc tu cac nam sau. Cac luong tien cang xa trong lui?ng
lai thi muc do khong on dinh cang cao.
«
no
S. 5.2. Xtfuyeii ly ty /<? sin It tin ke loan
Ty le sinh lai hach toan tap trung vao cac Igi nhuan ke
toan luy kc dirge nhan tir du an. Lgi nhuan kc toan dugc dua
trcn thuc te phat sinh. Vi vay doanh thu dugc nhan trong suot
<]ua trinh ban hang ehir khong nhat thiet la khi tien dugc thu

vao. chi phi dugc xcm xct trong suot ca thoi ky dugc thu vao,
chi phi dugc xem xet trong suot ca thoi ky ma chung phat sinh
r / > n
chir khong nhat thiet la khi chung dugc thanh toan bang tien
mat.
■t /
Cong thuc sau dugc sir dung de tinh ty le sinh lcri ke toan
trong mot du an:
Ty le sinh lcn Lgi nhuan trung binh mot nam cua du an
hach toan = 77 ~ ~ "71
So tien dau tu ban dau
Chu y rang cong thuc ty le sinh lai du toan giong cong
9 r \
_____
/
thirc tinh ty suat hoan von dau tu (ROI). Ty le sinh lai ke toan la
mot ROI hang nam hieu qua cho mot du an.
Hay xem xet phuang an 1 ciia cong ty, mua mot may M
■* * % X
mai. Be ap dung nguyen ly ty le sinh lgi ke toan, luong tien
%
trong bang 8.1 can dugc phan tich lai theo thuat ngu doanh thu
va chi phi (Trong vi du chung ta gia dinh rang luong tien vao la
f -w > >
doanh thu hay tiet kiem chi phi moi nam, luong tien ra la chi phi
trong cung mot nam).
Doanh thu cong don cua du an gia dinh la 90.000 do la
mot nam. Chi phi cong don la so am, khi chung bao gom tiet
kiem chi phi la 93.00C do la. Dieu nay dugc chinh lai ve tiet
kiem chi phi la 200.000 do la cong vai 107.000 do la. Gia sir M

co thoi gian sir dung la 5 nam, theo phuang phap khau hao
duang thang, mire khau hao hang nam dugc tinh nhau sau:
131