Đề cương Thương mại Quốc tế (international trade)

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<i><b>Câu 1: Factors affecting the current situation of international trade?</b></i>

- Old factors:

+ Gravity model: size, distance and other factors (culture, border, geography….) still determining trade flows

+ International trade is slowing down after 2008 (financial crisis). After 2008 up to now, world trade’s growth rate is much lower than world GPD’s growth rate

+ China, the US, the EU: biggest trade partners in both trade in goods and trade in services

- New trends:

+ Developing countries play more important role in international trade (ASEAN as a entity is the fifth largerst economy in the world in 2021)

+ South – South trade is approaching North - North trade + Manufacturing trade has dominated

+ Intermediate goods trade is high + High-tech export is increasing + Service trade is increasing

+ Regionalization ( US- China trade war, COVID – 19)

<i><b>Câu 2: Analyse and discuss the world trade situation in 2022; make some predictions about international trade trends in the following year</b></i>

Global trade in 2022 was marked by a number of challenges, including the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and rising inflation. According to WTO, trade volume growth in 2022 was slower than expected at 2.7% following a fourth quarter slump, but still stronger than worst case scenarios considered at the start of the war in Ukraine. The value of world merchandise trade rose 12%to US$ 25.3 trillion in 2022, inflated in part by high global commodity prices.. However, trade growth is expected to slow in 2023, as the negative effects of the war in Ukraine and rising inflation take hold.

One of the most significant challenges to global trade in 2022 was the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic disrupted supply chains and led to shortages of goods and materials. This, in turn, led to higher prices for many goods and services. The war in Ukraine also had a significant impact on global trade. The war disrupted trade flows between Russia and Ukraine, and it also led to sanctions against Russia that have affected trade with other countries.

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Rising inflation is another challenge that is likely to weigh on global trade in 2023. Inflation is already high in many countries, and it is expected to continue to rise in the coming months. This will put pressure on consumer spending, which could lead to a slowdown in demand for goods and services.

Despite these challenges, there are some positive trends that could support global trade in 2023. One positive trend is the continued growth of e-commerce. E-commerce has been growing rapidly in recent years, and it is expected to continue to grow in the coming years. This growth will help to offset some of the decline in traditional trade flows.

Another positive trend is the increasing number of free trade agreements (FTAs) that are being signed. FTAs can help to reduce trade barriers and promote trade between countries. This could lead to increased trade in 2023.

Overall, the outlook for global trade in 2023 is mixed. There are a number of

challenges that could weigh on trade growth, but there are also some positive trends that could support growth. The actual outcome will depend on how these factors play out in the coming months.

Here are some predictions about international trade trends in 2023: * Trade growth will slow, but it is not expected to decline significantly.

* The focus of trade will shift to more resilient sectors, such as digital goods and services.

* There will be an increasing emphasis on sustainable trade practices.

* Trade tensions will remain a challenge, but there will also be some progress on trade liberalization.

Overall, the outlook for international trade in 2023 is uncertain. However, there are some positive trends that could support growth. The actual outcome will depend on how these factors play out in the coming months.

<i><b>Câu 3: Explain and analyze Vietnam’s trade model in the last 2 years, make some predictions.</b></i>

<i><b>Câu 4: Phân biệt TBTs và SPSs, ví dụ</b></i>

TBTs (Technical Barriers to Trade) SPSs (Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures)

Standards, technical regulations and conformity assessments

Laws, decrees, regualtions, requirements, and procedures

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Example: Regulation on size,

construction/structure, safe handling (food labellign), Regulation on quality, grading and labelling of imported fruit (Fruit)

Cụ thể hơn: The application of electronic labeling regulaiton number 792P for some types of electronic labeling regualtion , April 2019, Russian Federation

Example: Regulation on permitted food safety: health warnings, use, dosage (Food labelling)

-> Criteria to differentiate: objectives

- SPSs measures: aims at protecting life and health of human, plants and animals through food safety regulations and prevention of the entry of diseases

- TBTs: have many different objectives (national security, environment, fair competition…)

<i><b>Câu 5: What are the tendencies of trade measures? Support your agruments with examples in the real worlds</b></i>

- Definition: Trade measures can be understood as temporary measures on trade, aimed at preventing or restricting imported goods in specific cases, protecting the domestic industry from foreign competitors.

- Có 2 loại: Tariffs and non-tariffs. Tariff measures include taxes on imports and exports, while non-tariff measures include quotas, subsidies, and technical barriers to trade.

- Tendencies:

+ Tariff measures: The trend of using this measure has remained stable. Since 2010, tariffs have somewhat declined because of the result of preferential liberalization. + NTMs:

 There is a trend that countries are using more and more non-tariff measures in international trade activities

 Since the 2008 financial crisis, 4,000 new non-tariff measures have been applied, including: trade remedies, local barriers, fee subsidies, exports, and discrimination

- Reasons:

 The tendency of using NTMs rises as a result of tariff cuts enforced through multilateral and preferential commitments

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 Tariffs are reduced NTMs may become attractive tools to replace them and to protect import-competing industries

-> NTMs, while already an important source of trade protection at the beginning of the period, grew even more.

<i><b>Câu 6: What are the agruments for + against free trade? How should Vietnam promote free trade?</b></i>

* Ủng hộ: + Efficiency:

 If using restricted trade policy  Price is distorted

 Consumers pay higher prices

 Resulting in inefficient production increase

 Overproduction either by existing firms producing more or by more firms entering the industry

-> Country: worse off

>< When adopting free trade policy

 Producers and consumers allocate resources most efficiently

 National welfare of a small country is highest with free trade, no deadweight loss

-> Free trade helps the economy perform efficiently + Political:

 Any policy that deviates from free trade would generally be manipulated by political group/ interest group, leading to a protection to politically influential sectors -> decreased ntional welfare

-> Free trade must be supported because free trade will be not influenced by political reasons and bring about efficiency for the whole economy

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+ Dynamic gains from free trade:

 Free trade allow firms or industry to take advantage of economies of scale  Specialization

 Lower unit cost, more efficient production  Variety of goods for consumption

 Free trade provides competition and opportunities for innovation + Additional gains:

 Allocate efficiently resources at global scale

 Promote comparative advantage -> specialization -> reach economies of scale  Create employment

 Lower prices, more variety of goods for consumers

 Attract foreign investment/ and technology transfer through trade channel  Lower government spending

 Encourage the participation in global value chain (Vinfast) * Phản đối:

+ Terms of trade:

+ Domestic market failure:

 Failure of labor market: Labor market is not clearing, labor is unemployed or under-employed

 Externalities

 Positive: technological benefits for society discovered throguh private production, but from which private firms can not fully pòit

 Negative: Environmental costs for society caused by provate production, but for which private firms do not fully pay

 Gap between developed and developing countries  Harm environment, exhaustion of natural réources

 National security and soverignty (Facebook data scandal) Thiếu ý sau

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<i><b>Câu 7: Explain infant industry argument in ISI of the developing countries. What should goverments consider when supporting infant industries? (đọc thêm từ trang </b></i>

289 trong giáo trình)

- Infant industry: - young, newly developed, might have comparative advantage in the future -> government should support

- Infant industry argument:

The developing countries have potential comparative ad in some manufacturing industries (infant industries), but these industries can not intially compete with well-established industries in developed countries

Governments should temporarily support new industries until they have grown strong enough to compete internationally

- Consider:

It may be wasteful to support industries that will have a “com ad in the future” With protection, infant industries may never “grow up” or become competitive It is difficult to assess the intervention policies of the government -> corruption - Example: Vietnamese government protected automobile industry (tự đọc thêm)

<i><b>Câu 8: What are strategic trade policies? What should governments consider when using this? </b></i>

* Strategic Trade Policy (STP) is defined as government policy to give a domestic firm a strategic advantage in production. These policies typically would take the form of subsidies, such as outright grants, loans at lower-than-market interest rates,

promises to purchase a large volume of production, etc.

In some industries, there are only a few firms in effective competition (airplane produce industry). Because of the small number of firms, the assumptions of perfect competition do not apply -> there will be excess returns

In these industries, government subsidies can shift excess profits from a foreign firm to a domestic firm.

* Why not do it?

(1) huge informational requirements: if governments or economists are not exaactly right when predicting the profits of firms -> a subsidy policy may turn out to be a costly misjudgment

(2) retaliation a problem, especially in a multilateral world: If the EU subsidizes Airbus, the US could subsidize Boeing

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(3) this is a beggar-thy-neighbor policy: increase our country welfare at other countries’ expense

(4) Political economy problems: Could be manipulated by politically powerful fropus (5) How can you tell what is tit for tat? (EU trả đũa Mỹ nhưng chắc gì đã là Mỹ trả đũa lại EU)

<i><b>Câu 9: Analyze the roles of WTO in supporting the developing countries? In your opinion, how should the WTO reform to increase its role in the current context?</b></i>

* Roles:

 Providing a forum for negotiations: The WTO provides a platform for

developing countries to negotiate trade agreements with developed countries. This enables developing countries to access new markets and increase their exports. Commitments under the WTO are important for developing countries to promote their trade and development. Countries undertaking substantial reforms in the context of WTO accession were found to grow 2.5 per cent faster for several years thereafter.

 Technical assistance and training: The WTO provides technical assistance and training to developing countries to help them build their trade capacity. This includes training in areas such as trade policy, trade negotiations, and dispute resolution.The WTO organizes hundreds of technical cooperation missions to developing economies annually. It also holds many trade policy courses each year in Geneva for government officials. Regional seminars are held regularly in all regions of the world, with a special emphasis on African countries. E-learning courses are also available. In 2019, some 22800 participants benefited from WTO training aimed at improving understanding of WTO agreements and global trade rules.

 Special and differential treatment: The WTO provides special and differential treatment to developing countries, which enables them to implement trade policies and agreements in a way that takes into account their specific needs and circumstances.Over three-quarters of WTO members are developing or least-developed economies. All WTO agreements contain special provisions for them, including longer time periods to implement commitments, measures to increase their trading opportunities and support to help them build the infrastructure needed to participate in world trade.

 A WTO Committee on Trade and Development looks at developing

economies’ special needs. Its responsibility includes implementation of the WTO agreements, technical cooperation and the increased participation of developing economies in the global trading system.

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 The Aid for Trade initiative, launched by WTO members in 2005, is designed to help developing economies build trade capacity, enhance their infrastructure and improve their ability to benefit from trade- opening opportunities. So far, over US$ 400 billion has been disbursed to support Aid for Trade projects. A Global Review of the initiative is held every two years at the WTO’s

 Monitoring and surveillance: The WTO monitors and reports on trade policies and practices of member countries, including those of developing countries. This helps to ensure that developing countries are not unfairly disadvantaged by trade policies and practices of other countries.

 Access to finance and investment: The WTO also supports developing

countries in accessing finance and investment, which can help them to develop their economies and increase their trade capacity.

* What should WTO do?

There are a number of ways that the WTO could reform to increase its role in the current context. These include:

 Modernizing the rulebook. The WTO rulebook is outdated and needs to be updated to reflect the realities of the 21st century economy. This includes issues such as digital trade, environmental protection, and labor standards.  Strengthening dispute settlement. The WTO's dispute settlement mechanism is

one of its most important tools, but it has been weakened in recent years. The WTO needs to find a way to strengthen the dispute settlement mechanism so that it can effectively resolve trade disputes.

 Increasing transparency. The WTO needs to be more transparent in its

decision-making process. This would help to build trust and confidence in the organization.

 Expanding membership. The WTO's membership is currently limited to 164 countries. The WTO should expand its membership to include more countries, especially developing countries.

These are just some of the ways that the WTO could reform to increase its role in the current context. The WTO is a vital organization for global trade, and it is important that it is reformed so that it can continue to play a positive role in the world economy. In addition to these reforms, the WTO could also focus on the following areas:

 Addressing the rise of protectionism. Protectionism is on the rise in many countries, and this is a threat to global trade. The WTO needs to find ways to address this threat and promote free trade.

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 Promoting sustainable development. The WTO can play a role in promoting sustainable development by ensuring that trade agreements do not harm the environment or workers' rights.

 Engaging with civil society. The WTO needs to engage more with civil society groups to ensure that its decisions are in the interests of all stakeholders.

The WTO is a complex organization, and there is no easy solution to its problems. However, by reforming in the ways outlined above, the WTO can increase its role in the current context and help to promote global trade and prosperity.

<i><b>Câu 10: Analyze roles of the WTO in creating forum for trade neotiaiton? Ý 2 giống câu trên</b></i>

The World Trade Organization (WTO) is an intergovernmental organization that regulates international trade. It was established in 1995 under the Marrakech

Agreement, replacing the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which had been in place since 1947.

The WTO provides a forum for its member countries to negotiate trade agreements. These agreements can cover a wide range of issues, such as tariffs, quotas, subsidies, and intellectual property rights. The WTO also provides a mechanism for resolving trade disputes between member countries.

The WTO's role in creating a forum for trade negotiation is significant. The

organization provides a neutral ground where countries can come together to discuss and negotiate trade agreements. This forum has helped to reduce trade barriers and promote free trade, which has had a positive impact on the global economy.

Here are some of the specific roles that the WTO plays in creating a forum for trade negotiation:

 Establishing the rules of the game: The WTO's agreements set out the rules that countries must follow when engaging in trade. These rules help to ensure that trade is fair and that countries do not discriminate against each other's goods and services.

 Providing a neutral forum: The WTO provides a neutral forum where countries can come together to discuss and negotiate trade agreements. This forum helps to ensure that negotiations are conducted in a fair and transparent manner.  Resolving trade disputes: The WTO's dispute settlement mechanism helps to

resolve trade disputes between member countries. This mechanism ensures that countries comply with the WTO's rules and that trade disputes are resolved in a timely and efficient manner.

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The WTO's role in creating a forum for trade negotiation is essential for the global economy. The organization's agreements have helped to reduce trade barriers and promote free trade, which has had a positive impact on economic growth and

prosperity. The WTO's dispute settlement mechanism has also helped to resolve trade disputes in a fair and transparent manner.

<b>How should the WTO reform its role in the current context: Since its creation, the </b>

WTO has experienced difficulties in carrying out its mission as a forum for negotiating world trade rules. A total impasse was reached after the Trump administration came to power in the US, declaring “trade war” on China and threatening to leave the WTO. So, WTO must rebuild the WTO and make

international trade a lever for sustainable development by some following requests Firstly, negotiations will not break the deadlock unless they take into account the interests of developing countries.

Secondly, a solution must be found to resolve the trade disputes between Western countries and China. The WTO should adopt an agreement that favors subsidies aimed at sustainable development objectives but prohibits those that distort competition. Thirdly, the paralysis of the WTO Appellate Body is an opportunity to reform it and strengthen the possibility of using anti-dumping measures. Extending safeguarding measures to social and environmental issues would give states sufficient scope for action to curb dumping and make international trade a lever for sustainable

<i><b>Câu 11: What are justifications for the establishment of WTO’s Agreement on Agriculture (AOA)? What are key objectives of AOA?</b></i>

<b>* Why the WTO must have a separate agreement on agricultural products?</b>

 Sensitive products in international trade

 Agricultural trade policies are especially more conservative cimpared with that of industrial goods: liên quan đến an ninh lương thực (food security)

 It is not easy to reach an agreement on market opening and reduction of distorting subsidies for agricultural products

 The results of the Uruguay Round, signed in Marrakesh in 1994, turning point (US- EU on beef) (tí nhớ xem thêm)

<i><b>Tất cả các sản phẩm từ chương 1 đến chương 24 trừ cá và sản phẩm từ cá, lâm nghiệp, muối đều đc coi là sp nông nghiệp (từ gạo, trứng, sữa, bột cho đến cả bơ, </b></i>

bánh mì, dầu ăn, thịt, sản phẩm từ sữa, bia, thuốc lá, da động vật -> đều là sản phẩm nông nghiệp)

>< Việt Nam: sp nông nghiệp gồm những nông sản, cá, lâm nghiệm và muối

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