kepler swiss seminar 2010 bernhard a fuchs head investor relations marco knuchel investor relations holcim ltd

© Holcim Ltd 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Bernhard A. Fuchs – Head Investor Relations
Marco Knuchel – Investor Relations
March 24, 2010
St. Genevieve plant
2
© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Agenda
1 Results 2009 and outlook 2010
2 Strategy geared to growth areas
3 Value-driven investment criteria
4 Attractiveness of Holcim’s capex program
5 Conclusions
3
© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Results 2009
• Full market impact from the economic crises; volume loss in
all main products in Europe and North America > -20%
• Geographical positioning mitigated cement volume reduction
to only -7%
• Prices held up well in all segments
• Significant efforts on fixed cost reductions CHF 857 million
• Op. EBITDA like for like (lfl) -5.1%, margin up +1.2 pp
• Strong cash flow (lfl +12%) and lower CAPEX allowed to
reduce NFD by 1.2 bn, while maturity was extended
• Dividend payout ratio one third maintained; CHF 1.50 per

share
4
© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Key financial figures – 2009
1
Includes a capital gain on the sale of a stake in Holcim South Africa of CHF 1,110 million and a special dividend of CHF 150 million, net
2
Includes a special dividend of CHF 150 million, net related to the sale of a stake in Holcim South Africa
3
Calculated on the weighted average number of shares outstanding retrospectively restated in accordance with IAS 33
4
Paid as a stock dividend
5
Proposed by the Board of Directors
LFL CIS FX Total
Sales volumes
- Cement (mt)
149.6 143.4 131.9 -6.8% -1.2% -8.0%
- Aggregates (mt)
187.9 167.7 143.4 -19.6% 5.1% -14.5%
- Ready-mix (mm
3
)
45.2 48.5 41.8 -17.5% 3.7% -13.8%
Net sales
27,052 25,157 21,132 -10.0% 0.8% -6.8% -16.0%
Operating EBITDA
6,930 5,333 4,630 -5.1% -0.7% -7.4% -13.2%

Operating profit
5,024 3,360 2,781 -7.3% -2.1% -7.8% -17.2%
Net income before
minorities
4,545
1
2,226 1,958 -5.8% -1.0% -5.2% -12.0%
Net income attr. to
Holcim shareholders
3,865
1
1,782 1,471 -11.2% -1.7% -4.6% -17.5%
Cash flow
5,323
2
3,703 3,888 12.0% 1.6% -8.6% 5.0%
EPS CHF
3
9.21 6.27 4.93 -21.4%
Dividend/share CHF
3.30 2.25
4
1.50
5
-33.3%
Million CHF
(if not otherwise stated)
+/-
2007 2008 2009
5

© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Outlook 2010
• Europe: the markets will only recover slowly
• North America: no rapid recovery on the
construction market
• Latin America: construction industry will remain solid
• Africa Middle East: a stable economic environment
• Asia Pacific: markets will continue to grow
• Acquisition in Australia will make a solid contribution
• The cost advantages realized will be retained
• Focus remains on process efficiency and strengthening
competitiveness
• Holcim will start the next upturn from a stronger position
6
© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Agenda
1
Results 2009 and outlook 2010
2
Strategy geared to growth areas
3
Value-driven investment criteria
4
Attractiveness of Holcim’s capex program
5
Conclusions

7
© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Holcim strategy…
…effective execution is the base for success
1
Reported as per 12M 2009 YTD
Product Focus
Geographic
Diversification
Local Management
Global Standards
• Two basic resources
• Cement
• Aggregates
• Value-adding products
and services
• Ready-mix concrete
• Asphalt
• Concrete products
• Business – strongly
anchored in local
markets
• Supported by
global standards
• Policies &
directives
• Exchange of
know how &

best practices /
benchmarking
• Truly global
• Balanced between
• regions
• mature / emerging markets
34%
16 %
15 %
6%
29%
25%
8%
22%
8%
37%
Latin America
Africa Middle East
Asia Pacific
Europe
North America
Net sales
1
Op. EBITDA
1
8
© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
1970 2000 2030 2050

0
5
10
1.3
2.4
2.9
3.2
5.0
3.3
6.4
2.8
urban rural
1970 2000 2030 2050
0
5
10
1.3
2.4
2.9
3.2
5.0
3.3
6.4
2.8
urban rural
0
5
10
2050
1970 2000 2030

0
5
10
Emerging
markets
Mature
markets
0
5
10
2050
1970 2000 2030
0
5
10
0
5
10
2050
1970 2000 2030
0
5
10
Emerging
markets
Mature
markets
Demand drivers – population growth and
urbanization
World population

• Likely little or even no population growth in most developed countries
while population growth in emerging countries will continue
• In emerging and mature countries migration from rural areas into
urban agglomerations will continue
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, March 2009 – in billion
Population in rural and urban areas
9
© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
34%
66%
Demand driver – GDP growth rates in emerging
markets are expected to be higher
Continued and growing importance of emerging countries – the
place where best growth opportunities will be found
World GDP growth (% per year)
44%
56%
GDP share 2008 vs. 2020E
Emerging markets
Mature markets
2008 2020
• Global GDP growth of 3.5 to 4% on average p.a. expected in the next
decade
Source: Global Construction 2020, Global Construction Perspectives, Oxford Economics, November 2009
2005
2010
2015 2020
Emerging markets

Mature markets
World
0
5
10
-5
2005
2010
2015 2020
Emerging markets
Mature markets
World
0
5
10
-5
10
© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Global construction outlook
Holcim – very well positioned to capture growth opportunities
USA 1
China 2
Japan 3
Germany 4
Spain 5
France 6
Italy 7
South Korea 8

India 9
UK 10
Canada 11
Brazil 12
Australia 13
Russia 14
Indonesia 15
China 1
USA 2
India 3
Japan 4
South Korea 5
Germany 6
Spain 7
Russia 8
UK 9
Canada 10
France 11
Italy 12
Indonesia 13
Brazil 14
Australia 15
Largest construction markets 2009E Largest construction markets 2020E
Global ranking Global ranking
Source: Global Construction 2020, Global Construction Perspectives, Oxford Economics, November 2009
11
© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Agenda

1
Results 2009 and outlook 2010
2
Strategy geared to growth areas
3
Value-driven investment criteria
4
Attractiveness of Holcim’s capex program
5
Conclusions
12
© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Holcim investment criteria –
set to secure long-term above average returns
Success factor – rigorous investment analysis and discipline
Product Focus
Geographic
Diversification
Local Management
Global Standards
• Strategic fit
• Position taking in line
with maturity profile of
the market:
• Cement
• Aggregates
• OCMS
1

• GDP growth
• Favourable demographics
• Deficit markets
• Substantial market share
• Networking
• Management
• Resources
• Local culture
embedment
Financials
• Hurdle rate concept
• Financing in line with
Holcim policy
• Investment scorecard
• Accountability
1
Other Construction Materials and Services
13
© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Agenda
1
Results 2009 and outlook 2010
2
Strategy geared to growth areas
3
Value-driven investment criteria
4
Attractiveness of Holcim’s capex program

5
Conclusions
14
© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Holcim expansion capex vs. consolidated capacity
We invested at the right time
The capacity expansion adds 28 million tonnes between 2007
to 2011 and will generate additional > CHF 900m
(Mtpa)
Cement Capacity
Expansion capital expenditures
(in CHF million)
• Expansion capital expenditure peaked in 2008 while commissioning
of cement capacity is peaking now
15
© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Holcim exposure is geared towards emerging
markets which account for ~70% of op. EBITDA
Eastern Europe
op. EBITDA (% of Group): ~8%
Capacity expansion 2007/2011: 6.6 Mt
Latin America
op. EBITDA (% of Group): ~22%
Capacity expansion 2007/2011: 4.1 Mt
Africa Middle East
op. EBITDA (% of Group): ~8%

Mature markets (Western Europe,
North America, Australia, New Zealand)
op. EBITDA (% of Group): ~30%
Capacity expansion 2007/2011: 4.7 Mt
Reported op. EBITDA as per 12M 2009 YTD, China not consolidated
Source: Global Construction 2020, Oxford Economics, November 2009, Holcim Estimates
Construction output
forecast CAGR 2010/2020
0% to <2%
2% to <4%
4% to <6%
6% to < 8%
>8%
no forecast
dd
Asia Pacific (w/o AUS, NZL)
op. EBITDA (% of Group): ~32%
Capacity expansion 2007/2011: 12.3 Mt
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© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Cement and clinker
1
• 4 cement plants
• 1 grinding plants
• Sales 2008: 5 million tonnes
• Other: fly ash, slag and lime
Other construction
materials & services

• 249 plants
• Sales 2008: 6.3 million m
3
• 16 pipe and precast plants
1
Cement Australia is a joint venture owned 75% by Holcim and 25% by HeidelbergCement
The acquisition in Australia demonstrates
investment discipline in practice
Australia will generate an additional > CHF 400m op. EBITDA
• The only major transaction done
in the industry in 2009
• One of the only mature markets
not to enter a recession
• Major presence in all three
segments across Australia
Aggregates
• 83 plants
• Sales 2008: 30 million tonnes
17
© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
30
40
50
We are well positioned to capitalize on the recovery
50
75
100
125

150
175
200
Existing assets can generate an additional CHF 1bn
op. EBITDA on a like-for-like basis
Aggregates volumes sold
-7 Mm
3
-56 Mt
2007
Actual
1
2007
Actual
1
2009
Actual
2009
Actual
199 143
49
42
• Prime asset base and locations with solid long term demand drivers
• High quality aggregates with over 70 years of reserves
Ready-mix volumes sold
80
100
120
140
Cement volumes sold

-10 Mt
2007
Actual
1
2009
Actual
142 132
1
Adjusted for change in structure to show like-for-like comparison
(Mt) (Mt) (Mm
3
)
18
© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Agenda
1
Results 2009 and outlook 2010
2
Strategy geared to growth areas
3
Value-driven investment criteria
4
Attractiveness of Holcim’s capex program
5
Conclusions
19
© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010

Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Conclusions
• Solid results in 2009 given the challenging environment
• Sound strategy and effective execution are the prerequisites
for success and value creation
• Expansion activities and acquisitions have positioned
Holcim in the fastest growing emerging and resilient mature
markets
• Stringent investment criteria are the cornerstone for our
capital allocation
Holcim’s investments will generate an estimated
CHF 2.3bn in additional op. EBITDA
20
© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Disclaimer
Cautionary statement regarding forward-looking statements
This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements
relating to the Group’s future business, development and economic
performance.
Such statements may be subject to a number of risks, uncertainties
and other important factors, such as but not limited to (1) competitive
pressures; (2) legislative and regulatory developments; (3) global,
macroeconomic and political trends; (4) fluctuations in currency
exchange rates and general financial market conditions; (5) delay or
inability in obtaining approvals from authorities; (6) technical
developments; (7) litigation; (8) adverse publicity and news
coverage, which could cause actual development and results to differ
materially from the statements made in this presentation. Holcim

assumes no obligation to update or alter forward-looking statements
whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
21
© Holcim Ltd 2010
March 2010
Kepler – Swiss Seminar 2010
Contact information and event calendar
Event calendar
May 4, 2010 Results for the first quarter 2010
May 6, 2010 General meeting of shareholders
August 19, 2010 Half-year results for 2010
November 10, 2010 Press and analyst conference for
the third quarter 2010
March 2, 2011 Press and analyst conference for
the annual results for 2010
Contact information
Bernhard A. Fuchs
Marco Knuchel
Binit Sanghvi
Investor Relations
Phone +41 58 858 87 87
Fax +41 58 858 80 09

www.holcim.com/investors
Mailing list:
www.holcim.com/subscribe