Chương 15 Đối phó với rủi ro trong đời sống kinh tế pps

Chapter 15
Coping with risk in economic life
David Begg, Stanley Fischer and Rudiger Dornbusch, Economics,
6th Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2000
Power Point presentation by Peter Smith
15.2
Individual attitudes towards risk

A risk neutral person
–
is only interested in whether the odds will yield
a profit on average

A risk-averse person
–
will refuse a fair gamble

i.e. one which on average will make exactly zero
monetary profit

A risk-lover
–
will bet even when a strict mathematical
calculation reveals that the odds are
unfavourable
15.3
Risk and insurance

Risk-pooling
–
works by aggregating independent risks to

make the aggregate more certain

Risk-sharing
–
works by reducing the stake

By pooling and sharing risks, insurance
allows individuals to deal with many risks
at affordable premiums.
15.4
Moral hazard and adverse selection

Moral hazard
–
is the exploiting of inside information to take
advantage of the other party to a contract

e.g. if you take less care of your property
because you know it is insured

Adverse selection
–
occurs when individuals use their inside
information to accept or reject a contract, so
that those who accept are not an average
sample of the population

e.g. smokers taking out life insurance
15.5
Portfolio selection


The risk-averse consumer prefers a higher
average return on a portfolio of assets
–
but dislikes risk.

Diversification
–
is a strategy of reducing risk by risk-pooling
across several assets whose individual returns
behave differently from one another.

Beta
–
is a measurement of the extent to which a
particular share's return moves with the return
on the whole stock market
15.6
Efficient asset markets

The theory of efficient markets
–
says that the stock market is a sensitive
processor of information
–
quickly responding to new information
to adjust share prices correctly

An efficient asset market already
incorporates existing information

properly in asset prices.
15.7
More on risk

A spot market
–
deals in contracts for immediate delivery and payment

A forward market
–
deals in contracts made today for delivery of goods at a
specified future date at a price agreed today

Hedging
–
the use of forward markets to shift risk on to somebody
else.

A speculator
–
temporarily holds an asset in the hope of making a
capital gain.