ảnh hưởng của quan hệ thương mại việt mỹ đến nền kinh tế việt nam hiện nay

(
sd 04 (81)-2010
)
TAI CHiNH
QUdCT^
ANH
HU'DNG
CUA QUAN HE
THUONG
MAI
VIET - MY DEN NEN KINH TE VIET NAM HIEN NAY
• • •
TS.
Ha Guv
Tmh
J
Yong
xu the todn cdu hda kinh te, hpi nhap vd tdc ddng manh me cua cuoc cdch mang
khoa hpc- cdng nghe hien nay, quan he thffdng mgi giffa cdc qudc gia dd trd thdnh mdt bp
phan quan trpng cua quan he kinh te qudc te. Qud trinh ddi mdi kinh te nham xdy diing,
phdt trien nen kinh te thi trffdng dinh hffdng xd hpi chu nghia gdn vdi md cffa hdi nhap vdo nen
kinh te khu vffc, the gidi cua nffdc ta ddi hdi phdi md rong, phdt trien cdc quan he thffdng mgi
song phffdng, da phffdng md quan he thffdng mgi Viet- My giff mdt vai trd ddc Met quan trpng, la
mdt khdu
dot
phd de md rdng quan he thffdng mgi vdi cdc nudc tren the gidi. Dieu ndy cdng dffpc
khdng dinh qua cuoc khung hodng kinh te todn cdu 2007-2009 viia qua, bdi My vdn dang
Id
thi
trffdng xudt nhap khdu
Idn

nhdt cua nffdc ta hien nay.
Lffi
ich cua quan he
thffdng mgi Viet - My
Quan he thffdng mai Viet
- My
Id
mdt bd phan
ciia
quan
he thffdng mai qud'c te, nd
mang ban chat va ham chffa
day
dii
ndi dung
ciia
mdi quan
he thffdng mai qud'c te', song
nd cung phan dnh nhffng mdi
quan he ddc thu giffa hai qud'c
gia.
Tff nhffng nam 90, quan
hp Vipt - My da dan dan tffng
bffdc dffdc hinh thanh vdi
nhffng bffdc di
cham
chap, than
trpng xua't phdt tff nhffng quan
he giffa hai qud'c gia trong qud
khff

Cling nhff
tff nhu cau ldi ich
ciia
hai qud'c gia can dat dffdc
trong hien tai vd tffdng lai. Bdi,
chinh sdh ddi mdi vd md cffa
ciia
nen kinh te Viet nam da
md ra cd hdi mang lai ldi ich
khdng chi cho Viet nam md
cho ca cdc qud'c gia trong khu
vffc,
the' gidi lam cho quan he
ldi ich giffa My vd Viet nam
tffng budc xich lai gan nhau.
My ky vpng rat
Idn
vao Viet
Nam - mot thdnh vien quan
trpng
ciia
Asean day nang
dpng va trien vpng phdt trien
vdi mdt thj trffdng rdng
Idn
84 trieu dan, tai nguyen thien
nhien da dang, gid thue nhan
cdng re, vi tri dia ly quan trpng
Id
cau nd'i giao

Iffu
kinh
te'giffa
cac nffdc trong khu vffc. Sff
phdt trien nang ddng ciia khu
vffc Chau a -
Thai
Binh Dffdng,
trong dd sff hdnh trffdng
ciia
cdc cdng ty Nhat ciing vdi sff
phat trien rat nhanh
ciia
nen
kinh te' Trung qud'c da Idm
My
lo
ngai buoc phai
Hm
cdch
Cling cd' vai trd ciia
minh
d
khu vffc. Chinh sach kinh te',
thffdng mai, ngoai giao
ciia
My dffdc xay dffng dffa tren
nguyen tdc thffc dung, ludn
ddt
ldi

ich
ciia
nffdc My, trffdc
he't
Id
ldi ich
ciia
cdc cdng ty
My len hdng dau nen khdng
cd ly do gi de My dffng ngoai
nhin cdc cdng ty Nhat ban,
EU, Trung qudc chie'm Hnh,
kliai
thdc cdc ngudn ldi tff thj
trffdng Viet Nam trong khi
sir
phdt trien
ciia
Viet nam khdng
he de dpa, dung cham den ldi
Ich ciia nffdc My. Chinh vi vay,
thie't lap quan he ngoai giao,
phdt trien quan he thffdng mai
Viet - My khdng chi ciing cd
dja vi, Idm tdng vai trd
ciia
My
d khu vffc Chau a Thdi Binh
Dffdng md cdn mang lai nhffng
ngudn ldi chinh ddng cho cdc

cdng ty My. Dd'i vdi Viet Nam
- mdt nffdc dang phdt trien lai
cd khoang
each
chenh lech
kha xa ve trinh dp phdt trien ,so
vdi cdc nffdc trong khu vffc, the
gidi,
diic biet la
sir
chenh lech
qua
Idn
giffa mdt qud'c gia rat
lac hau so vdi mot sieu cffdng
kinh te' hang dau the gidi
Id
My song Viet nam cung mong
mud'n tiep can thj trffdng rdng
Idn,
Hep nhan ngudn vd'n dau
tff, tie'n bp khoa hpc cdng nghp
tien tien, kinh nghiem quan
ly hien dai ciia My. Chiing ta
nhan tha'y rdng, thiet lap quan
he thffdng mai Viet - My chinh
la bien phdp de Viet nam cd
the phat trien nhanh theo con
dffdng "rut ngdn" hdi nhap
vdo nen kinh te' the' gidi, xdc

lap
ddng thdi ciing cd' vj the'
ciia
Viet nam. Phdt trien
quan
he thffdng mai Vipt - My cdn
Id
bffdc dot
phd.
Id
cau ndi de
md rdng, phdt trien quan hp
kinh te', thffdng mai giffa Vipt
nam vdi cac nffdc "Than My"
trong dd cd cac cffdng qudc tff
ban
Idn
tff dd md rdng khdng
Tap chf nghien cufu Tdi chfnh ke todn
<b3
TAI CHiNH QU6C
TE
( Sd 04 (81)-2010 )
gian
"
bien gidi
mem" cua nen
kinh
te^
nham mang

lai ldi ich
cho Viet
nam.
Quan
he
thffdng
mgi
Viet
-
My tff khi
Viet
nam trd
thdnh
vien
WTO.
Tff
khi
Viet
nam trd
thdnh
thanh vien
ciia
WTO,
quan
he
thu'dng
mai
Viet
- My da
bffdc

sang
mdt
giai doan phdt trien
ndng ddng.
Dd la mdc son
phdp
ly
de
thdo
gd cdc mdi
quan
he
Viet
-
My
vd'n
qua
nhieu chdng
gai trong
qud
khff chuyen sang
mot quan
he mdi td't dep
theo
chua'n mffc
cua
qud'c
te
nhdm
mang

lai ldi Ich tot dep ve
kinh
te
-
chinh
trj - van hda - xa hpi
cho
ca hai
qudc
gia, khu
vffc
va
the^
gidi. Quan
he
thffdng
mai Viet
- My da va
dang
md
ra bffc tranh
mdi ve
quan
he
song phffdng giffa
hai
nffdc.
Cu
the, ndm
2007, tdng

gid
tri giao dich thffdng
mai
song
phffdng Viet
- My dat
tren
12
ty
USD,
tang
7 lan so vdi
thdi
ky
ke tff khi
Hipp dinh thffdng
mai song phffdng
cd
hieu lffc
(ngdy 10.12.2001).
Dau tff
trffc
tie'p
ciia
My vdo
Viet
nam
ndm 2007
dat hdn 2,6 ty USD,
neu Hnh

ca dau tff
qua nffdc thff
ba
thi
tdng
sd vd'n dau tff dat
5,2 ty USD. Nam
2008
so vdn
dau
tff va sd' dff dn dau tff
ciia
My
vdo
Viet
nam
tdng
42%.
Khd'i Iffdng thffdng
mai
hdng
hda song phffdng Viet
- My gia
tdng,
cu the:
khd'i Iffdng hang
hda xua't kha'u
cua
Viet
nam

vdo
My ndm
2007
dat 10,54
ty
USD, ndm
2008
dat 12 ty
USD,
nam
2009 khoang tren
13
ty USD va trd
thanh
mot
trong
30
nffdc xua't kha'u hdng
dau
vdo My.
Xua't khau
ciia
My
vdo
Viet
nam ndm
2007
dat
1,82 ty USD, nam
2008

dat tren
2 ty USD, nam
2009
khoang
2,5 ty USD. Tff ndm
2008
va
2009
My da trd
thdnh
nhd
dau tff cd sd' vd'n
ddng
ky
Idn
nha't
d
Viet
nam.
Hien
tai,
nhieu cdng
ty, tap
dodn
kinh
te
Idn ciia
My da cd mat
tai Viet
nam, nhff:

Starwood
Hotel
&
Resorts, CiHgroup
vd
American Group,
New
York
&
Company, Alfonso DeMatteis,
Dickerson Kingh Group,
AIA
Cac cdng
ty My
dang khang
djnh
chd
dffng vffng chdc
tai
thj trffdng Viet
nam va
Id
bang
chffng thuye't phuc
thu hut cdc
ddng
vd'n dau tff
chay
vdo
Viet

nam trong hien
tai,
tffdng
lai.
Cuoc khung hoang kinh
te'
toan
cau
2007- 2009 vffa
qua
da
tdc
ddng ddng
ke nen
kinh
te
My
song cung minh chffng
sffc manh
vd sff anh
hffdng
Idn
ciia
My den nen
kinh
te'
toan
cau trong
do cd
Viet

nam.
Hien
nay.
My van
dffdc
coi
Id
thj trffdng xua't nhap
Idn
nha't
va
day
trien vpng
cua
Viet
nam
Tdc dpng ciia quan
he
thffdng
mgi
Viet
- My den nen
kinh
te
Viet
Nam.
Sau
gan ba gia
nhap WTO,
nen kinh

te'
Viet
nam mac du
van chju
tdc
dpng
bat ldi
ciia
nen kinh
te the'
gidi
nhff: gid
dau
md
tang
cao,
ddng
USD
mat
gid so vdi
ddng
Euo,
bang
Anh, nhan
dan te , nen
kinh
te
My
bffdc
vao

thdi
ky suy
thodi (2007-2009),
nen
kinh
te'
Trung qud'c tie'p
tuc
tang
trffdng
cao
(11%)
da da'y gid
cac nguyen lieu
cd ban
ciia
ca
the gidi trong
dd cd
Viet
nam
tdng
cao, tdc
ddng
ciia
thien
nhien
da gay
nhieu thiet
hai

cho
nen
kinh
te
Viet
nam Vdi
ta't
ca
nhffng ba't ldi
dd
song
nen
kinh
te'
Viet
nam van dat td'c
dp tang trffdng
cao hdn so vdi
td'c
do
tdng trffdng
ciia
12 ndm
trffdc.
Nam
2008,
GDP Hnh
theo
gid
qud'c

te (PPP) dat
tren
80
ty USD); GDP/
ngffdi
dat
gan
1000 USD) vd nam
2009
tang trffdng kinh
te
nffdc
ta
dat khoang
5.3%, GDP/
ngffdi
tren
1000 USD.
Cung
vdi td'c
dp tdng trffdng kinh
te' cao do
md rdng quan
he
thffdng
mai,
cd
ca'u nen
kinh
te

Viet
nam
dang chuyen djch theo hffdng
Hch cffc
phu hdp vdi muc Heu
ciia
qua
trinh
CNH. HDH vd
hdi nhap
vdo nen
kinh
te' the
gidi.
Cu the:
Cd
ca'u
kinh te' nganh:
Ty
trpng
gid trj
nganh ndng
- lam
- thiiy
san
tie'p
tuc
giam theo
quy luat
cua CNH, HDH,

chi
cdn
18% GDP.
Nganh cdng
nghiep
- xay
dffng tang
td'c dp
cao,
dat hai
chff
sd va dat
tren
42%
GDP, khu
vffc djch
vu c6
td'c
dp
tdng trffdng
cao
nha't,
cao
hdn td'c dp
tang trffdng
chung
ciia
nen
kinh
te.

Cd
ca'u
thdnh phan kinh
te':
Nhd tff
duy, chinh sdch kinh
te'
ciia
Dang
va Nhd
nffdc
cd
sff
ddi mdi ma
thanh
phan kinh
te ngoai
nha
nffdc,
ddc
biet
kinh
te tff
nhan
cd tdc dp
tdng
trffdng
cao hdn td'c dp
chung
cua

nen
kinh
te. dat tdc dp
tren
17%.
Khu
vffc kinh
te'
ngodi
nha nffdc
vd khu
vffc kinh
te
cd
vdn dau tff
nffdc ngodi
cd
tdc
dp
tang trffdng
cao hdn khu
vffc kinh
te nha
nffdc, chie'm
ty trpng
cao
trong
GDP vd trd
thanh ddng lffc
tdng

trffdng
ciia
ca
nen
kinh
te'.
Sff chuyen djch
cda cd
ca'u
64^
Tap chf
nghien cufu
Tdi
chfnh
i<e
todn
(
sd 04
(81)-2010 )
TAI CHiNH
QU6CT^
kinh te ngdnh, cd ca'u thdnh
phan kinh te phu hdp vdi quy
luat CNH, HDH tao nen td'c dp
tdng trffdng cao cua todn nen
kinh
te'la
do tdc dpng thuan ldi
ciia
ca yeu td dau vdo, dau ra

ciia nen kinh te, do khdi thdng
quan he thffdng mai vdi cac
nffdc tren cd sd cdc djnh che'
ciia
WTO.
Ye'u to' dau vdo
ciia
nen
kinh te: Tdc dp tang vd'n dau
tff cao hdn td'c dp tang trffdng
chung cua nen kinh te (vdn
dau tff tang 40,6%) va thuoc
nffdc cd td'c dp tang vd'n dau
tff cao so vdi cdc nffdc tren
the gidi, chi sau Trung qud'c.
Trong dd, ty trpng vd'n dau tff
ciia khu vffc kinh te nha nffdc
Hep tuc giam, ty trpng vdn dau
tff cua khu vffc kinh te ngodi
nhd nffdc ngdy cdng gia tang
(dat tren 38% tdng vd'n dau
tff todn xd hdi). Hieu qua dau
tff cua khu vffc kinh te ngodi
nhd nffdc cao ga'p ddi khu vffc
kinh te nhd nffdc nen ddng
gdp tich cffc vdo tang trffdng
GDP.
Ngudn vdn dau tff trffc
Hep nffdc ngoai gia tang ky
luc ca ve vd'n dau tff trffc tie'p,

vd'n dau tff gian tiep vd vd'n
hd trd phdt trien chinh thffc
ODA, cu the: Ngudn vd'n dau
tff trffc tiep gia tdng ca ve tdng
sd vd'n, vdn dang ky mdi, vdn
bd sung (dat 20,3 ty USD), quy
mo binh quan mot dff dn tang
(14 tripu USD/
dir
dn); Ngudn
vd'n dau tff nffdc ngoai gian
Hep ndm 2007 dat 5,6 ty USD,
ndm 2008 dat 5,8 ty USD, ndm
2009 khoang tren ndm 2008
Id
5,6 ty USD, nam 2009 khoang
6.3 ty USD.
Ye'u td' dau ra ciia nen
kinh te:
Ve san Iffdng hang hda
Heu thu trong nffdc: tdng mffc
bdn
le
hang hda vd djch vu
Heu diing tang gan 23%, neu
loai trff ye'u to' tang gia, binh
quan nam 2007 san Iffdng
hang hda tieu thu va djch vu
tdng 8,3%, cao gap 1,6 lan td'c
dp gia tang GDP. Dung Iffdng

thj trffdng trong nffdc dat gan
45 ty USD.
Ve gid tri hang hda va
dich
VII
xuat - nhap khau: Kim
ngach xua't khii'u nam 2007 dat
48,4 ty USD, tang 8,2 ty USD:
nam 2008 tren 52 ty USD.
Trong dd kim ngach xua't kha'u
cua khu Vffc cd vd'n dau tff nffdc
ngodi chie'm 56,9% kim ngach
xua't khau
ciia
ca nffdc, dat
27,3 ly USD, kim ngach xua't
kha'u
ciia
cac doanh nghiep
100%
vd'n trong nffdc tang
23,1%.
Co ca'u mat hang xua't
kha'u cung cd bien ddi, trong
•dd kim ngach xua't kha'u nhdm
hang ndng - lam - thiiy san
tang
1,7
ty USD; nhdm hang
nhien

lieu,
khoang san tang
0,2 ty USD; nhdm hang cdng
nghiep va.
thii
cdng my nghe
tang3,7 ty USD; eac nhdm
hdng
kliac
tang 2,6 ty "USD.
Cac mat hdng xua't kha'u chff
lffc cua Viet nam ciing tdng
cao Tuy
nhien nhap sieu ciia
ndm 2007 van tdng, khoang
tren 10 ty USD, ty le nhap sieu/
xua't kha'u la 22%,' nam 2008
nhap sieu 13 ty USD. Day la
mffc nhiip sieu cao, song bdi
todn nhap sieu
ciia
Viet nam
an chffa nhieu nghjch ly can
dffdc
ly
giai va thao gd, cu the:
chiing ta xua't sieu sang nhieu
nffdc cd nen kinh te phdt trien
vd cd trinh do cdng nghe tien
Hen nhff My, Italia, Dffc, Anh,

Nhat ban ( xua't kha'u vdo My
tang21%,
vao EU tang 19%,
vdo Nhat ban tang 1,8% so vdi
nam 2007 ) trong khi chung ta
lai nhap sieu
Idn
tff cdc nffdc d
gan nhff Trung qud'c. Singapo,
Han
qud'c.
Thai lan, An dp,
rieng nhap sieu tff Trung qud'c
nanr2007
la 4,4 ty USD (chie'm
hdn 86% tdng mffc nhap sieu
ca nffdc; ndm 2008 tdng len
7.5 ty USD (chie'm 60% tdng
mffc nhap sieu
ciia
ca nffdc)
ma nhap hang tieu dung va cdc
thiet bj khdng phai Id tien tien
la chii ye'u. Dieu ndy gay anh
hffdng de'n sff tang trffdng, phdt
trien
ciia
nen kinh te' Viet nam,
tao ra sff bat ldi trong canh
tranh

ciia
cac doanh nghiep vd
hang hda Viet nam. Ddc biet
tff
1.1.2010,
khu
vir
mau dich
Trung qud'c -Asean md rdng,
dd bd thue xua't nhap kha'u cho
hau he't cdc hang hda giao
Iffu,
dieu nay se tdc dpng khdng
nhd de'n sffc canh tranh doanh
nghiep va hang hda Viet nam.
Vay, sau ba ndm gia nhap
vao To chffc thffdng mai the
gidi WTO, nen kinh te' Vipt
nam da cd sff khdi sdc vdi td'c
dp tang trffdng khd cao,
cdca'u
nen kinh te cd sff chuyen djch
phii hdp vdi quy luat cua qud
trinh CNH, HDH, hffdng manh
vdo thffc hien phan cdng lao
dpng qudc te nhdm phdt huy
ldi the'
ciia
da't nffdc, doanh
nghiep ciing nhff hdng hod

Viet nam. Md rdng, phdt trien
quan he thffdng mai Vipt - My
dang trd thanh hffdng ffu tien
hdng dau
ciia
Viet nam, thj
trffdng My dang trd thanh ha'p
dan dd'i vdi cdc doanh nghiep
Viet nam hien nay va trong
nhffng nam tdi/.
Tap chf nghien cufu Tdi chfnh ke'todn
<(65,