Dự báo nhu cầu Dầu Diesel


LỜI MỞ ĐẦU
 !"#$#!!%&#' (
 )*!+ ,!-. !/0(*
1!+ 11 %'2
.$#-342#5 $*6 "* 7
8$! 9.2:-2;#3&#0
<,*=)*!
+ <>? #@. !/0A*5;
#-2,&#,)53-!2B*
C0D,E )5#FGH!I)5
2B*CJ3,$-$@A*5*,!-E0
D $E K9&BLGGH6E,4*M
,$/*N-6,$,$"O0P#)
*O:' ( !+ 11 
QRE% ! M0
SGLGJE* A*5)E 9&B
&T'@&#,U*8 !
&T')%=$$+55EE8$T
J!&V&W*,0XO$)8,$Y8$! =!-
E!,T0
(E. !/' *' ( !+ 
,*5&#@Y/38O,*,#)
Y.$#R/3,Z[8O,**' (
  =SGLL\SGLF],3,' 0' '$#
9*5&#@Y/38O*,A*5T5^!,
_(PD`$aDQP@bE`cPbdcFL [ L

3ef%*+O:*'
( !FE0*'  `
- Chương I `X+;+938O*


- Chương II `[8O*' (  =LggF\
SGLG
- Chương III`*' (  =SGLLdSGLF
&#@"=#)' "3 J$T
::WJ,>' +0
e:8,2+1h9U' TP_0[ D+
M1h'  $aP,b8, R=P!8)
@,N2>&O(&OY1,,,$0
e:8,2+i
_)
$aDQP@
_(PD`$aDQP@bE`cPbdcFL [ S


CHƯƠNG I
CƠ SỞ PHƯƠNG PHÁP LUẬN VỀ PHÂN TÍCH VÀ DỰ BÁO
NHU CẦU NĂNG LƯỢNG
1.1. Khái niệm năng lượng và nhu cầu năng lượng
1.1.1. Khái niệm năng lượng
,*=9-4&2TJ $
T. .!U9>4 /0
,&O =. !/' =0 
J,=&A*5! UJ=&
* ,9$%0,$)V& /U-$;
3,*=@0
1.1.2. Khái niệm nhu cầu năng lượng
<,=, J*<8
.$9J.$90
*=& =!^#I

)39!j6=k
QOJMlm
"% ,A*5
M`,TJTJ T92J*8*5J+=
*R50
_(PD`$aDQP@bE`cPbdcFL [ n

1.2. Phương pháp phân tích nhu cầu năng lượng
1.2.1. Đặc điểm của tiêu thụ năng lượng
XoA*5*=p5O55.
!U2:-k+&O 4 mJ4
,,$' UkVJ-J3" &T&Olm
P),4%. !/' 2B,%C
Y5%,o%A*53=&
 k%-%*M J*JJ lm,-' .!U
#I,& 0
q&O =&::W, /' o)*M*=
,$ $*=&5O' U5,
3$#`59.J.)*MJ2' *=
,' #RA*50
1.2.2. Các khái niệm về phân tích nhu cầu năng lượng
[8O,>23#!.&@'
#). ##!%' )5;2?T<
6,0P6=3&,.2>&2&%
!;' 0
[8O,U%)5#
,=o%!EJVV*=A*5,
A*5M%U! 82;#
<U.$9#' 0
1.2.3. Mục đích của việc phân tích nhu cầu năng lượng

[8O-32T*
JT&#= ,:8$*O
. 0PT. 8O%9*=8`
Jr[J*8J9Jl#%6
%:9). Q ,8,$0
_(PD`$aDQP@bE`cPbdcFL [ s

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1.2.4. Các phương pháp phân tích nhu cầu năng lượng
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vD,9`
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biến động của kinh tế nói chung
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- #€ƒL`&T,90
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1.3. Phương pháp dự báo nhu cầu năng lượng
1.3.1. Các khái niệm về dự báo
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$#,* ,TU/%*UU+27:2$
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,=%:R:E9' !+ o
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 ,o *,8*,n=`
dV=`,Q*o **EnJ=*
,$o*M%*49&#=&#JJ:Y'$#;
_(PD`$aDQP@bE`cPbdcFL [ …

T,?T!&2o Vp55Tu=
&Ro0
d!=`,Q*o *6ndFJ=*
,$o*M%55T:8$*Q&#=!=3
&#JJ:Y'$#;T,?T0
d*,=`,Q*o *F!;)J=*
,$o*M%55T*5)J#3&#
O!R!&2o *,;?T0
1.3.2. Mục đích của công tác dự báo nhu cầu năng lượng

55.$#R' ,
30X-' *. !#EO,
OJ&#.2*&TO:78$! Q=E0q
&#.2*VQ$# `
- V$)80
- )@8.)5!.&@,=0
- 9*=82;`O3T!o,
. JJ $I-!13&#,!%
' & /TJ!%' & /TJ!%
' 3&#l
1.3.3. Các bước tiến hành dự báo nhu cầu năng lượng
N!U*#,!)+;8O,
!=' J8O)5
!.&@J8O. 8.2Q )5,
#&#d:Yk!;&#J=J*8JlmJ
%6:R+*J:8$*TU*ME
)@,o *0
_(PD`$aDQP@bE`cPbdcFL [ g

_(PD`$aDQP@bE`cPbdcFL [ LG

DUL0L0_+E' .!U*
1.3.4. Các phương pháp dự báo nhu cầu tiêu thụ năng lượng.
#,+RO,
R0
v[+ROo O'. J&T* !)&)
 $. R' 82;#)5
0PTo+,$ $*M%)@2@'
o)*MJ4*M%::W&#.2*#,p
+R% O^!0=*+RO

,+$) 0
v[+RA*5I#!*
0[+,$:W#. RQ #&#,
)5;-& `#JR#l!)+;
/&)0X+R%,+=$J
+8O.0
L0n0s0L[+=$
Khái niệm:P? !-U+*=$,
)@RA!%' &#JU! .$9!%!
.&@,=,$%O.9 + p+:A
>^o &#0
Chuỗi thời gian kinh tế:
P-' )@RA,)@.!U $I,
!%' &#o )5k,$JJlmJ
U,^o 0
Điều kiện chuỗi thời gian kinh tế:
_(PD`$aDQP@bE`cPbdcFL [ LL

c2Q o%' ^o o-$p J2
2O)5p55:A>0+R!R^o 2
-0
P>? /U+=$O,:#
9' &#J&28.$9,†km%*
,)!R&#;,&2!RY#k$
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P!`Z],&2*k: *m0
Điều kiện của phương pháp:
- &#!%+IRo k+;
9T!.&@,O.9m0
- Q82;-!%&#
K*$!U!&2o ,-$!+ 0
- cT=6),*KEQ#!.
!U!%&#0
Nội dung của phương pháp`P#,' +=$!U
,$+& 8$`
DUL0S0XE#,*+=$
Bước 1`‡A>^o &#`
d#^o &##!R,-$U%Ip
-$!U' S!R!E, 0E^* E*
2;' $#K))2A*5+ p<
_(PD`$aDQP@bE`cPbdcFL [ LS

o %=! ^o E:E* IR+,K
Q$):#6^o  0
db=C T0
Bước 2`[:#`
d}p+R0
d}p+8O. 0
Bước 3`‡8$*,:#`
d}p+%/0
d}p[+U+%kˆb_m0
d}p+ p<0

Bước 4`c%R,:#`
!E:#J,:#=&#9 O:-JU
9$)@%p /,:#0
Bước 5`p,:#Y&%R`
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Các dạng hồi quy `
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Có hai loại đa cộng tuyến:
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Hậu quả của đa cộng tuyến:
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