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Phân tích và dự báo cầu về sản phẩm máng đèn công nghiệp của Công ty Cổ phần Tân Minh Anh trên địa bàn Hà Nội đến năm 2015

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9gœ/./-^11+,W6•,J23IT(.#?;,?a;D8
0l,9g,__9W,=,>./323,BC3a1/I
T(3?A+,A./,J,__,&,4a,C430C9!
<>?9r+>(5`,>=>'(><$j'(><$2$6i
6$1$9r9W$i.J,_,/?I_,Cj.<J"g./'&01("/2,C,
./z3>,9r1'(><$i,r=9!,((,9!=>8_./
^19B9g-^1323,B,˜89,9g<3z36>(,(a
'(>IT(9iJ"g./'&01(23"/8!,.d94d$,C,9W.J8;,?i
3./;,?@$2+iAIc9i(,d?˜j.<A
`394,//?"/C,5`2,C,I
1.2. Xác lập và tuyên bố vấn đề trong đề tài.
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5>3,>,&,#$,;,?@$2+,16z3?C,9B94
,/L !"!#
$%&'() *+,-./01234+?"/8!,.d948/;
,?9>,&5&z3>,+89ri,r91$`9g323,W,.456$7881
9:;<$(,A3'm,c9i+>(9g<3z36a'(>=>
;,?I
M>3aA`3^(94,//?,16i,r,6"9gp+3v
5>39+?L
Phạm Văn Việt – K43F5 G Chuyên đề tốt nghiệp
Đại học Thương mại Khoa Kinh tế
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;<$=>;,?@$2+,(pD829+?
'•0C,C/(ž
%* 56p+,W/(,19!,J23.456$78819:;
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$78819:;<$ž
%7 56Mx'q18;_/(9rJ"g./'&01(23.456$78
819:;<$ž
%7856p6$1$/(˜897?8,__,A3,q56$78
819:;<$=>;,?,(,>,Jž
1.3. Các nghiên cứu liên quan đến phân tích và dự báo cầu
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8!,5W94,/=>1,16L
%4,/t*+,-./'&01(.42356$78,3W"1>,>0>,A,B,
84Nl=>;,?,8,3W"19CD8EFGHŸ=>,163?•B
+8–EFGF—./94,/t*+,-./'&01(23.456$785J"D,=>
;,?*5M$[,[<,>8,A,B,84Nl9CD8EFGHu=>,16
*83d–EFFX—I6>94,//?9f9z315+3./,C,./($2"w,3?C,
3L1<823j"3#,23jJ"g./'&01(23j],(a$2!'3
$+,-./'&01(23,_">$+,-œ9g1?C3,W6•,J23
=>56$78Ii43!'39g9>>,($2"w,3?C,">
9g1$'q9r$+,-,($2,&,56^3d,a'(>=>'(>
<$I
%4,/t*+,-23./8!,5W6$1$,)97?,A3,q56$785,
;,?@$2f5;†%">[>,A,B,/!9CD8EFGHu
=>,16šB>–EFGF—I(94,//?,169fA3a1,W,$2"w,3?C,
./$2$+,-23.456$785=>;,?@$2f5;†%
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$1$8/,169>>943d,33I
%4,/t*+,-./'&01(23.4•g3.>5=>;,?8

,A9B>0//!9CD8EFGHu=>,163?•p3–EFFX—I1
69fA3d,,C,.4"w,3?C,j1$$1$5x'q,(94,/>
Phạm Văn Việt – K43F5 E Chuyên đề tốt nghiệp
Đại học Thương mại Khoa Kinh tế
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>9g92?9=./,C,I
1.4. Các mục tiêu nghiên cứu.
* Mục tiêu lý luận:
4,/<,W"p5•"w"3#"Az3>9CaC,`8;,C
8;./,Cz36"wjaC,`3?A/9i"/8!,5W"w"3#06.423j
1+,W,19!,J23ja1<8./.>,o=>$+,-./'&01(239h
,V>1;q9r$+,-./'&01(23Ic9i.#'qaC,`/?
,($+,-./'&01(23.456$78819:;<$=>;,?@
$2+,A9B>0//!9CD8EFGHI
* Mục tiêu thực tiễn:
4,/9119g,__$1,,r(,9!56^3d,a'(>./,_
_,A3,q56$78=>;,?,(>9(EFFY9CD8EFGF,A9B>0/
/!¡$+,-9g1?C3,W,19!,J23.48s,/819:;<$
=>;,?I_8r3./911,&,;,1$+,-./'&01(23.456
$78819:;<$>9(EFFY%EFGFj5x'q8;_a,C"g9r
J"g./'&01(23.456$78819:;<$=>;,?9CD8
EFGHI11p,/,&3./pC,(;,1,A3,q56$78
=>;,?,c9i9>>paCBj6$1$a'(>˜897?8,A3
,q56$78=>;,?I
1.5. Đối tượng và phạm vi nghiên cứu.
* Đối tượng nghiên cứu:
;,?@$2+"/;,?56^3d,./a'(>,C,0B9<I
W,g8/94,/,#$,3A`39i"/2356$78819:;<$
–819:;<$0˜,b$5,™9<"(G0i^GjE8—=>;,?@
$2+I

* Phạm vi nghiên cứu:
%4a;>L4,/,#$,3A`3$+,-./'&01(2356$78
819:;<$,A9B>0//!I
%4,>Lcz3wD8EFFY9Cz3wD8EFGF./,C/$+,-j
J"g./'&01(23.456$78819:;<$–819:;<$
0˜,b$5,™9<"(G0i^GjE8—=>;,?,JD8EFGHI
Phạm Văn Việt – K43F5 Q Chuyên đề tốt nghiệp
Đại học Thương mại Khoa Kinh tế
1.6. Phương pháp nghiên cứu.
4,/5x'q$$1$,@g$./$+,-aC,g$.J$$1$
,WaAj$$1$'&01(j$$1$A`3,B,9ra1z31,,_
_jA`3./'&01(23,;,?@$2+I
1.7. Nguồn gốc số liệu nghiên cứu.
%985:;6*oC,(1./$o'(>=>;,?@$2
+I
<985=;LcQF$C3943,>,l<8,>8a6(waCa1/
,A9B>0//!I
1.8. Kết cấu của chuyên đề nghiên cứu.
C,d33?A94h8QL
GL@z3>A`394,/
EL*+,-./'&01(23.456$78819:;<$=>
;,?@$2+,A9B>0//!9CD8EFGHI
QL!,5W6$1$,)97?,A3,q56$78819:;<$
,;,?@$2+9CD8EFGHI
1.9. Lý luận chung về cầu, ước lượng và dự báo cầu.
1.9.1. Lý luận chung về cầu
1.9.1.1. Khái niệm về cầu và luật cầu
[(;_>(–EFFQ—,_23"/5W"g/(1>?'B.q8/
83>ia6D./5¢5/83>•18`1a1>3,(8!,,>d,
9B–.J1?C3,Wa1a;9@—I

.#?jai9C23"/i9C9h,6>?C3,W"/a6D83>./
5&5¢5/83>/(1>?'B.q9iI
>2$+0<,5&a1>3p>23./"g23IOg23"/5W"g
/(1>?'B.q8/83>5¢5/83>,8!,8`1d,9B,(
8!,,>d,9Bj,(,g$1?C3,Wa1a;9@I
c>a1<8,A,>i,r$+0<,9g5&a1>3p>23./"g
239i"/L23"/,#$g$,d,61"g23•18`1a1>3I
Phạm Văn Việt – K43F5 P Chuyên đề tốt nghiệp
Đại học Thương mại Khoa Kinh tế
£,[(;_>(–EFFQ—,_"3#,23,r<8Wz3><,›"<B
p>1./"g23Iq,rLtMW"g/(1>?'B.q9g23,(a(6
,>9f(,D"Aa1=>/(1>?'B.q68^3W>?g"
–1?C3,Wa1a;9@—I
1.9.1.2. Các yếu tố tác động đến cầu
A`3923=>8!,"(/(1),>69B"/1?C3
,Wa1a;9@I
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Đại học Thương mại Khoa Kinh tế
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1.10. Phân định nội dung nghiên cứu
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Phạm Văn Việt – K43F5 GG Chuyên đề tốt nghiệp
Đại học Thương mại Khoa Kinh tế
CHƯƠNG 2: PHÂN TÍCH VÀ DỰ BÁO CẦU VỀ SẢN PHẨM MÁNG ĐÈN
CÔNG NGHIỆP CỦA CÔNG TY CỔ PHẦN TÂN MINH ANH TRÊN ĐỊA BÀN
HÀ NỘI ĐẾN NĂM 2015
2.1. Lựa chọn phương pháp phân tích dự báo.
2.1.1. Phương pháp thu thập số liệu
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2.1.2. Phương pháp phân tích dữ liệu
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,A3,q56$78¡5x'q$$1$5(519WC39r5(51.J9W,=
,>j5(51p>18W,>9r,d?9g5&,>?9@,('(>5W,A3,q
56$78,c9i9>>16$1$,-g$9r97?8,A3,q56$78=>
;,?Iq,rL
%c3h'p"<35d$,;z3>$C3943,>,>8a6(waCa1
/94,/5x'q$2848M*MM9r$+,-23.456$78819:;
<$=>;,?I4,/,C/8f(1./#$'p"<3./(06'p"<3>>0"[
Phạm Văn Việt – K43F5 GE Chuyên đề tốt nghiệp
Đại học Thương mại Khoa Kinh tế
[«./T>,>[«j?$2848M*MM,39gaC,z36˜8$+,-j911
23.456$78819:;<$I
%4,/5x'q$2848Z.[«59r$+,-15W"<3,`d$=>;,?j
,WaA^+?'&/8hz3?8K3.423,B,56$78819:;
<$.J1?C3,W,19!9C231j,3#$j16/(1"Az3>j
'+5WI;z3>/8239f9gJ"gj94,/9>>8!,5WaC,"3#.46
•=>1+,W9C"g23.456$78819:;<$=>;,?I
*+,-j911jar89B5&$mg$=>8;_./9>>'&9(123.456
$78819:;<$=>;,?,(,">I
2.2. Tổng quan về Công ty Cổ phần Tân Minh Anh.
2.2.1. Tổng quan về Công ty.
2.2.1.1. Giới thiệu chung về Công ty Cổ phần Tân Minh Anh.
;,?@$2+"/'(><$9g,/"#$,[(z3?C,
9B5WEUY¬EFFH¬k‘~N/?EF¬FP¬EFFH=>~›0>+'+,/$W/!I
A'(><$L;,?@$2+
B>VLMWPP%3?•lC3‘N>_‘/!
MW9Dawa'(>LFGFQFFYHUF
2.2.1.2. Chức năng của Công ty Cổ phần Tân Minh Anh.
;,?@$2+"/9.B,(19!"#$I(,9!56
^3d,./a'(>=>;,?5>3L
%M6^3d,./a'(>1"(819:L

©=9<;<$
©19:;<$
©19:,1z3>+8,2–©@—>D(^
©19:,1z3>+8,2–©@—>;8$6z3>
©19:,1z3>>
©!$9<
©11$9<
Phạm Văn Việt – K43F5 GQ Chuyên đề tốt nghiệp
Đại học Thương mại Khoa Kinh tế
%#>;,[(g$9hL>;a-j1"(a3šj1,C,0B
9<'+'qj,=,C,0Bj]
2.2.1.3. Nhiệm vụ, quyền hạn của Công ty Cổ phần Tân Minh Anh.
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z3?9B=>"3#,$1$I
%&<92?9=1>8aC,,(g$9h83>01j#>;.J
a1/j"A'(>g$,1.J1,@`a,CI
%k36"wj5x'q3h.Wa'(>=>;,?,[(9)z3?9Bj968
06(<3z36a,C./$1,,r.Wj,&,>,6.4,/-I
%0(11(,9!,/-=>'(><$I
%k36"w9!£10!;+.Aj96806(z3?4"gg$$1$(
">(9!I
2.2.1.4. Tổ chức bộ máy, nhân sự của Công ty Cổ phần Tân Minh Anh.
d3,@`=>;,?@$2+9g^+?'&,[(8;
_,&,3?C`Dj9`923"/189W;,?,&,C$943/,(/0!
(,9!=>;,?IC$9C"/E$i189W./1$o0>,(;,?0>(
h8L*o,/-%aC,(1¡$o,@`‘/-¡$oa'(>¡^•
56^3d,¡$oar8,>d,"g¡$oa(.#I
Hình 2.1: Sơ đồ cơ cấu tổ chức bộ máy Công ty Cổ phần Tân Minh Anh
Phạm Văn Việt – K43F5 GP Chuyên đề tốt nghiệp
1$i

189W
*o,@
`/
-
*o
a
'(>
•
56^3d,
*o
ar8,>
d,"g
*o
a(.#
*o,/
-aC
,(1
†
’
Đại học Thương mại Khoa Kinh tế
2.2.2. Tình hình hoạt động kinh doanh của công ty.
(>9(EFFY%EFGF.c>z3>8s'm943a<a,C,CJi43
0C9!ja,C.™8;=>J,>£s$43aiaDj,>p>1
'(><$,(J.J1'(><$J(/£p>1'(>
<$,(J/?/>?l,I'(>,3,A3,q56$78819:
;<$=>;,?@$2+ip0J,C,rd,,W,ITJ
9+?"/'(>5W,A3,q56$78819:;<$–"(0˜,b$5,™9<
G0i^GjE8—=>;,?,A,B,/!>9(EFFY%EFGFL
Biểu đồ 2.1: Số lượng tiêu thụ sản phẩm máng đèn công nghiệp (loại bằng thép
sơn tĩnh điện 1 bóng x 1,2m) của công ty trên thị trường Hà Nội giai đoạn 2008 –

2010
(Nguồn: Phòng Kế toán và phòng Kinh doanh của công ty CP Tân Minh Anh )
c9h,B,>,d?˜'(>5W,A3,q56$78819:;<$–"(
0˜,b$5,™9<G0i^GjE8—=>;,?@$2+,D"A
,qz3>1z3w,(D8,cD8EFFY9CD8EFGFIq,rj,@'(>5W,A3,q
56$78819:;<$D8EFFY"/EYSEjXHH_C9CD8EFFX,_
;,?,A3,q9gQHXHjUYX_C,DEHjGU§5(.JD8EFFYID8EFGF
"/PQGSjYYG_C,DEFjFY§5(.JD8EFFXI
Phạm Văn Việt – K43F5 GH Chuyên đề tốt nghiệp
Đại học Thương mại Khoa Kinh tế
A3,q/(1"/?C3,Wz3?C,9B9C5&5Wo=>;,?AC
"g97?8,A3,q56$78=>;,?d,9g(,I;,?"3;z3>
,+8D85i1a1/£./£a;c,_8aC8,A8a1/./
p0/8J,A,B,IT(9ij5W"g/(1,A3,q=>;,?
,D"Aa;cz3>1z3w,(D8,cD8EFFY9CD8EFGFIMW"g
9"w./a1//?/43'(p39r8=>56$78£1
C"gz361(j-511$mg$91$`9g323./,BC3=>
,A3'mI
2.2.3. Các yếu tố ảnh hưởng đến tình hình tiêu thụ sản phẩm của công ty.
-16=>56$78I
Nd,ae8!,'(><$/(56^3d,>56$78£8(83W56$78
01>.J8!,8`1/(9i9[8""g3#('(><$INA9ij1
66•,JE+,W-9i"/aW"g/(101>./"g3#=>
;,?I1601>/>(,_"g3#,39g,A8!,9.B56$78,D
"AaW"g01>"689./g"I
J,__a,C430C9!j,>//?/>?l,
;,?9f9s,>8q,A39B19r"/8=9g,_,C,>9r9>>8`
1$mg$d,(a1/8/a;6•z3143,J'(>,3./"g
3#(;,?I;,?9f"&>$$1$9B1'&>,A5•$-j
9+?"/$$1$9g43'(><$1$'qI;,?d9B8`"f9r^1

9B101>,`"/101d9B,A5•$-923./(./8`"f(,JI
J8`"f0˜a;j;,?^19B8`101,d$d,,9i;,?(,
9!a;i"fIT(9ij101=>'(><$'>(9!,c8`1`.J8`
"f0˜a;,J8`1>(d,8/a1/i,rd$#9gI
-d,"g56$78I
M6$78819:;<$=>;,?@$2+9g
,C,aC./56^3d,0˜,b$5,™9<.J;<<9j56$7804%
9®$"3;,(5&>,(/./d,,3#,<,(5x'qIM6$789f9gd,43
>9_£1z3>,@`,'mA9g01./5x'qd,$@0CI
-16=>/(10@53I
M6$78819:;<$9g5x'qd,$@0C,A,B,IM6
$789g5x'q9a:8.J56$78819:;<$./6•a;
v,J23.456$78819:;<$9i"/0i9:3ez3>IC31
Phạm Văn Việt – K43F5 GU Chuyên đề tốt nghiệp
Đại học Thương mại Khoa Kinh tế
=>56$780i9:3ez3>,D,_23.456$78819:;<$
5¤68./g"I
-3#$=>,A3'm,A9B>0//!L56$78819:;
<$"/"(/(1,;,Aa,3#$=>,A3'm,D"A
,_23.456$78/?£5¤,D"A./g"I
-T+5W,A9B>0//!L'+5W,A9B>0//!,D"A,_3
235x'q56$78819:;<$£5¤,D"AI
-;,a,C
;,a,C,(J./,CJ,(pD829+?0C9!
43$`,$I;,a,C,>?9@5¤ab(,[(5&,>?9@C"g56
^3d,a'(>=>1'(><$9r,-g$.J8;,a,C<,I
2.3. Phân tích cầu sản phẩm máng đèn công nghiệp của công ty Cổ phần Tân
Minh Anh qua kết quả phiếu điều tra khách hàng.
r$q.q(.<$+,-./'&01(23.456$78819:;
<$,169f$1,QF$C3943,>,Ja1/,A9B>0//!I169f

5x'q$2848M*MM9r^x"w5W"<350!,39gaC,z36.4.<5x'q56
$78819:;<$=>;,?,A9B>0//!5>3L(5WQF
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;<$./GFF§a1/9gv9f5x'q56$78819:;
<$=>;,?I+?"/8!,aC,z36d,918c=>;,?j,3?8J,/"#$
,cD8EFFH56$78819:;<$=>;,?9f9gd,43
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,•"9+?8s'm4a,C,(J./,CJi430C9!./5&
,>,A,B,£d,>?l,I
2.3.1. Nhân tố quyết định đến tiêu thụ sản phẩm.
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d,"g56$78,9g,A3'm(,d,9rl0i.J56
$78I(/>1./8K38f£"/p?C3,Wz3?C,9B9Ca6D
,>=>56$78,A,B,I
Bảng 2.1: Kết quả phân tích phiếu điều tra lựa chọn của người tiêu dùng
Phạm Văn Việt – K43F5 GS Chuyên đề tốt nghiệp
Đại học Thương mại Khoa Kinh tế
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=>;,?"/'(d,"g=>56$78,W,¡EUjS§"/'(1y¡EQjQ§"/'(8K3
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2.3.2. Đánh giá sản phẩm máng đèn công nghiệp của công ty.
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=>56$78£"/?C3,W9g,A3'md,z3>,+8I
Bảng 2.2: Kết quả phân tích phiếu điều tra về việc so sánh mức giá sản phẩm
máng đèn công nghiệp của công ty so với các công ty khác
1=>56$785(.J;,?a1
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 [(aC,z36,c06EIE,_i,JSQjQ§a1/(˜156$78
819:;<$=>;,?"/,d$5(.J156$78819:;
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