Nghiên cứu sự biến đổi của nhu cầu tiêu và biện pháp tiêu nước cho hệ thống thủy nông Nam Thái Bình có xét đến ảnh hưởng của biến đổi khí hậu toàn cầu

MỞ ĐẦU
A. TÍNH CẤP THIẾT CỦA ĐỀ TÀI NGHIÊN CỨU

 !"#$%&'(')*+'),-'').'/.,*01
2
3'4*
).'')*5*674,819:2;6227"<5*'=*>24,19?6
;622$"@,ABCD/'4*',%@6,')*+,E4,'4*1@:,,"@)*
124,5*'=*')199$;622$",ABCD')*+
'4*',$@1,,E4,'4*$@1,,"3B)FAG'HII @'
(,-').'JK'4*','L1@>
2
>
2
@,ABCDJKFM*',
5*>$,:1,NO3PQB)R*FA,ABC
D*FM*S@.'3F'BT*'4**U58)C'
(**V')*'=**0M8N3PW)X*BC
D'HII Y'D'4*',1?$,N
Z'O,3,('')*7*')'*C['(*.'
'BT*,3\'D3'BT*BCDFM*@5'4*
'(3,,-'').'Y*F''53]O]"N)*5*
'=*%24,*0M819$1;6222"@'(')*+^Z'O,'4*2@%
2
@JT'_*V*5,`@')*YJS/,V*YUBC*
*'4*3Fa'J.''B=*N)*'19%1;19:2')*+,E
4,BC'Y69T'_*V'+*V199>;622%/*5,
U*bQ1?T',E4,Ncd/''e,(F0@fV/.'
'B=*@AO,)*g(3O,g(5[5B^*S/+
'3*3Dh_*Ni,gj@'L4,19?119%2')*+,E4,Y
$2*38,Bd@'L4,19916222*5,U*Q17*38NVA

3klc3Zm*3'L4,19?28'*'(/'4*
62
2
NVAB^'bg)')BCM8B*=Y/@B*
4,622%/Y/CNcABCD/FM*5*62,JCM8
124,N*Wno''VZ'O,@,E'H,A
BCD^Z'O,Y'DFM*7,@4,62%2Y'DFM*?9,@4,6122
BCDY'DJKFM*'C5*1,NOBCDFM*'FAB
8'+l*X*J_*kl*hgpk"JK[*5*7N222,
6
@l*X*J_*
q*JK[*62N222,
6
Fr,.'.'3*5,J5BT*_**N
1
k'*_*')+.''BC/UM8FA*^d*hgpkY*3
'*'8_*O,g+Y)*')*4,,CbBC*3
,\'835,580_**@Be')P*80
.''BCA_'[@_**3_')l*'8J5N]C
'BCAJ5U.'_**@80'''BC,B
A_'[@FMB@_**3_')l*'8J5Qs5
t')BS*S@')'DSN8@C'.38,_
'*_*')+'8T/Y@bC0'BC_**_*
'_'+0C_*')+38rB*BTNg^'Y',
0'''BC,BAY')/3*UM8FA*')
'*'8T'+,M'r*R0'''BCC54*'BC
38D'5BC_*')+383*')^4*'`*SNk5
,M'r')3'+')V*e**'),@uF3')**38@*=
')*J',d,B/U58)3,5B^**,')P*J5U.'3=J*
';U/(N]Y','(*gh]k3BCDFM*'+_*

')+'8T/YV3*_**BT3,M'r*R035
4**V3*4*'`*SN
g3BCDFM**3,FPR3'C,3
MVJK5BS*0')*'HII N)BC*8SYT/
*P'.'5*/8l*'M,.'')D*58'.')N
O*U.'3'A*5X,V,'..'
'(*'Agh]k3'*C')+gh]k'303,\
.,P*@,P*B=')').'N8*5/
BT3P3''B)BC*3'+,*5
V@j'*5,*l''53;'M8*M8
'BT*gh]k'303BC*'+,*5'*CN
ZCR*vF/^')@'3G“Nghiên cứu sự biến đổi của nhu cầu
tiêu và biện pháp tiêu nước cho hệ thống thủy nông Nam Thái Bình có xét đến ảnh
hưởng của biến đổi khí hậu toàn cầu”/BTU.'D*N
B. MỤC TIÊU NGHIÊN CỨU CỦA ĐỀ TÀI
I[BTJA80'BCJ'@'*BT*BC
'@'=*'"3U.'BT'BC,-''*'8_*
O,g+F5B^*'30N
6
C. ĐỐI TƯỢNG VÀ PHẠM VI NGHIÊN CỨU ỨNG DỤNG
;h'BT**'3380'3'BC
,-'F'(*JA'88''A3U/(N
;!V,**F\*3'*'8_*O,g+N]'
5*'3Y'D*F\*d*l*X*gjg(3
d*Y'A3U/('BS*'AN
D. NỘI DUNG VÀ PHƯƠNG PHÁP NGHIÊN CỨU
D1. Nội dung nghiên cứu
JM*2$.JG
1"w0'BCd*5B^*')F5B^*gh]k'30
'_*[5BCDFM*38'N

6"*58*58'.'''BC'*'8
TdTC80'')D';U/(@'*Cgh]k'30N
$"I[5B^*[5gh]k')*'*'8Td*
DN
D2. Phương pháp nghiên cứu
hD'A,\'3(F**)@')*JqF\*
BS**JG
1) Phương pháp kế thừa
O*''3JqF\*YPP'5*3'3'A
P_**'*5')*3*3BC/*R*.
Y'3N
2) Phương pháp điều tra thu thập và đánh giá
h')'''3@5J'3*'A'@M'*3
'*T'3D'LY)e')SJ^P354**F\*3'A
'aN
3) Phương pháp phân tích tổng hợp
Z*'''BCY8'Bf''@
'@U/(NNN@Y'(*)(*)/(J*(*l*')[3)(*
C+8M''*T30''C*38N
$
4) Phương pháp sử dụng mô hình toán thủy văn, thủy lực
hD\\'''8A'@/',53U,Uu'Jq
F\*,_+'JGc_+ZnpW!xpNO*8aOB]@,_+
pW!xpNO*8a.'hj@,_+]yzxpNp]kNO*8a{O@,_
+|oOzwZf''z}'k3"@,_+ z~oycyz
ZSP'()*'M,]P'A3_***T'C
xpNO*8a],h'(ZhVP;!@P,_+c ]o613
,_+c ]o11ZHAhcVzk "N)SJ^M'B@
BTD,3',V,_+'8A@D*58'3''
''BC')**/P,_+'H(*Ac ]o11JqF\*')*

''N
D3. Địa điểm nghiên cứu
h[D,*'33'*'8_*O,g+N
E. NHỮNG ĐÓNG GÓP MỚI CỦA LUẬN ÁN
;]D'L*38][5@BCDFM*Z'O,BT
Z'O,_*'*9•6229@M83_*')+P0'
*f,('d*\'DBC'N]'5*
/B)J[BT*\'D,*,(8
'38''84^l*X*gjg(Y*3'*'8_*
O,g+Y)*'Lq'HII835B^*JA
Y5v@3'_*')+'8TN
;h/M'3b)€8'S55B^*J'3
'D3,SJ^*U.'*5*5,•J'38
0'NhM83_*')+P0'*fJ'3SJ^
P*5TF\*54*')RBC3''BCl@
'*,BS*Db*5lJ''*'8T^BC
'Y*3)*'*'8_*O,g+N
;O*3[BT*BT,(J'@80'
BC3'BCk'*'8_*O,g+YUu'5
B^*'303BCDFM*'[5
/BTO3BCZ'O,_*N
>
;O*3U[BTV,@,(*\'F5B^*
,ABCDFM*'*'8_*O,g+'BS**C,
'=*[5/_*N
;hB)*5S5DV,(*\'3'*C
'30k'*'8_*O,g+''L**
V'L84,6122N
;IM8FA*'3_*BS**5B^*
CJ'380'BC,(''*'8T\'DN

7
Chương 1
TỔNG QUAN
1.1. TỔNG QUAN TÌNH HÌNH NGHIÊN CỨU TRÊN THẾ GIỚI
_*')+*8,_'30'BT*
gh]k"/BT3P'*')'*C'3'L0'H92
'H')BCNk(*['F')''VnF‚)4,
1996/'_*k[*3BS*')+3(*'X,
/'+')V*ƒU.„Y*08D').'NLY
 !"/BT'3@'e'
JA',*3**33P'NVk(*[]8'4,199%@
O*[['B]8'/BT'_*30'*6•6227/BT*8'
1?7*')*YYZ'O,tNO*[['B38j'0YA
'L12•6•6227N
'5*,C.' !')+k(l*5
T@*8M'BT*gh]kF*B=*M8),92…@F
'A*M8),12…Nm*' !#$%&@')*Q*:74,
'L19626227"'(')*+'),-'').'/.,*01
2
3'4*
).'')*5*674,8'L19:26227"3B)FAG
'HII @'(,-').'JK'4*','L1@>
2
>2@,ABCD
JKFM*',5*6:,>$,@'Y'D'C:1,NO3
PQB)R*FA,ABCD*FM*S@.'3F
'BT*'4**U58)C'(**V')*'=**0M8N
3PWFA,ABCD'HII Y'D'4*',1?$
,;'3*._JFA !NO3[vPn)FW8^hVP
!J8@k]†)X*b017…C4*^x)F['m*'V)

,('BC,C')*VFBS*D3,*'D*‡)Fk
]†3d*F85')'*CNgm*''L4,1%72
')^')BC@'3'=*BU58)_**Y@3,BT*y
6
BT3
6:2,@'(')*+,-'').'eYBT*R[;Y33,
BT*MX*S[3,BT*1,3G1M'qy
6
')(C1')M
'q8D"NO4,62273,BT*y
6
BT3$%9,@'4*JC
,MX*6:2,Nk3,BT*y
6
')*8D'4*3,,-'').'
Y*NL199?;6227'(,-'').''4*2@%>
2
NcCM8@_*c)
?
ˆ@g(!'')D‰'W/'4,Z'O,3Y
'8'')+“Báo cáo Stern”F3PWUM8FA*@BT
W_*.'30Ng)X*_*'A
BTBS*')+3(**5,'5*M8*3'O*[
['B]8'@4,62$7'(,-'[0JK'4*',62N)*'
HII @'('*CY'D'4*',7
2
@'BS*BS*CJA'8'
('L'=†4*3@'=†0CM{3gjcfQX,FBCC4*
F081,N)*Y@*BŠ**8D,3'4*',6
2

N
pAY*').'3,4*'8'F/8k,8@d*O,
A@gjA3AY4*'8''58NZF\^O,A@'*
$•6226@3P',j'*4*722'H'.')/'33*
*+,5<^gjA@,d‹6226@BT*4*'^x)F*._J
C1996@F'4*'/'C?77N222,
6
NkS112J_*4*3R*
l*4*Œq^*c'/,.'')*Q*1224,NO
('58F8')+B8'+J_*4*JK0B,.'sF/8
WJ34,6272Ncd‹6226@3P*,('4*$@7
')'.')@*M8)m4*'LF/8ec')b]•'(O*N)*
Q*1$4,*0M8@J4*'^M{'4**._JCBT*4*'
$24,')BC19?1;1992"NJ')j,ABCD'*C'.8
')*5*'=*>24,19?6;622$"@,ABCD/'4*',%@6,
')*+,E4,'4*1@:,,"@)*124,5*'=*')
199$;622$"JV'OWpW'.8U'DFM***
'4*).',ABCD')*+'4*',$@1,,E4,'4*$@1,,"N
)BC*8S383P'*C/,_s*''?[
5FA'4*'(3,ABCDN[5J>@3,BT*'
'534,6122X*:72,'+'(')*+'30,-'
').'JK'4*6@:
2
JC4,62223,ABCDJKFM*'L2@61,
2@>:,@*M8,(''5,V_*B=*')BCMV@Y3BD'L8
eYgh]kJK'V)/\'@V@J\'^.'@a,,-@''Ž
BFM')3'^d*.''.@,3')BC''BT*Fa['
'BS*.'3BCu,'')D3*B=*‹3V(MV
#$%&N
5'*CYS,('q')*J%'H*B=*J*^d*F8

5CV,)(*122,'(d*=DNg'')D
%
*B=622%•622:•Oz!5)X*'('4*'L$
2
>
2
@
5s3BC*'')DJK[5B^**,')P*N]
,ABCDFM*5*1@2,@Z'O,JKY5*66')*B=[,.'
3q<d*')m*WY5*?')*B=,.'3q3>N722,
6
.'
*\'<^g*FJY5*1:…F'.'*e*@'(*'C%2')
FMNNN)*m*)X*_*bR*BC*'')D5
B^*,3R*BC/'')Dm*_*')s'5,P
N)BC,j'@4*'JKFPS>2…FMJ'3'*CNc-'@
JK3,4*J.'_***5,@'=''A'4*@'BC
*P'')0,')P*')'3'*C@J''Š3''*'4*NNNOR*
BCBZ'O,@g*FJ@c8,)@WNNNJK[5B^*.'N
O*8S/\'@''JK3,R*BC38).'Y4D'')D
'@t8dY*‹N
g !#$%&@FJ12'3[FV.'^
*l,''3g,8•h(@zg*FJ@
BT*k5@‰5*M)*‰@!NklcZ'O,@g*
3w*c8,)N3P'*Cm*FAC
'(FM*BCDB8'+'_g4*"')*
Q*624,RJK[*3_*'=*D8D'_
J*SNZCS69N222,rFRJA'8'*C'A@
3P !'FBC'(*gh]k'30@4,6262JK
Y5*'L%7')672')*B=M!5,-'CV'BC

Q4*U.',d,3*JK'4*5*62…^h_*‘3h_*O,‘B*V
*5,'C$2…^BCA)*‘3O,‘N’*c)'!))8@l*
'[OY,* ! '4,6262_**'')D=
3BT*,BJK*5,5*72…'V,('JBCM!NpKY5*'L62
…$2…J'A'3(*'Y*8S'8'*'('4*'L1@7
2
6@7
2
N
V('5ƒg3'')D*B=„FZ]P]
'BT*'843,_')B=*@\g5,_')B=*@ZBTJ
'3*83,_')B=*T'*387•16•622:'V!Nklc@_*
‚kF)@'B=*')e'VZ'O,'G
'(')*+').''4*'L6
2
$
2
JC,8JK
Y',?22')*B=^M![Y@S$22')*B=5)=s3q
:
F/m3Y',>22')*B=[')8a,BJ')u'@,,3*
/@J'U.'8'@ 1:7')*B='NNN
“Báo cáo Stern”@e*'_*3(*@'*3))
Fgh]k*M8)@'BS*BS*C''V,E4,')37…xz!'30D'L
8')^NOUu'))3'(*C()(*S'+''V3*
4,"BTBC'35*62…xz!-CSNO*BTV@
3(**5,''53@X,')R*'(*U..'
gh]k@Y'Db*CV')*V,1…xz!3*4,N
)BC*8SY')@kT‰/*P'.'5*')'
*Cl*'M,.'')D*58'.38N3P@*5

V'+')V*'300'BC*JG'.'3
3,*5,'(*gh]k3'3'*Cgh]kN
O'g53*Y'*_*')+Q**''
.''*CB*C'(,ABCDFM*')*+'L,E4,'L>,,
:,,@d*C*'4*'0J.'U.'3B=*('')
/'+*8S3,*VV'(*J5U.'JK).'N''L
BS*''_*'Ve*Gg(c_')B=*O'g5/U.'C
5*MJ')?>@7'H•pzDYC,ABCDFM*F4*
'^AN3PO'g5BC',ABCD'4*',1
,u''+JKY5*92…J/DBC38JK[ƒ'q*„@J5BT*
eJK*5,72…NNN*l'm*')*‰*U,Uu'UM8
FA*'*FPJ'=DBC38@,('VBT3
UM8FA*,('ƒZVv')B=*'3„,CN
OBCWC'*_*')+*mY54**m1224,3
m6224,B*CFa3BCDFM*'+'*
38_*Y54*D,J'N]'5''FA'J(Y*8S
[mFP'4*'L6')(8$@7')(C[5gh]k
'*_*')+_*BT*NS,_')B=*W
U.',('5*Mf:'b•pzDM*.'*J_*,33*
4,05*1@6'b•pz_*'5vmN88J')m4,622%
'.80'B383'.S38*U.'C
DJ*',N)BC'++Y@4,622%@
“
'BS
”
*Wx)F
g)ˆ,
”
'')BC4,6272J
•

4
”
'*
“
,,B
”
–
”
'
“
y65*?2…
“
*
”
UB
“
8
”
'–
—
')
˜
*')
”
M
”
'
”
*3W‰_
”


•
')S
“
'
—
BS
”
M
—
'')
9
'*CB)M
˜
'
”
4
—
,4
”
'*
“
,–
”
'
“

“
_
”


”
S
”
'–
—
')
˜
*'8_
“
–
”
M
˜
N
*16•622?_*p')Jz,J
“
8M{
—
,_')BS
—
*/'_*

”
)4
—
*
”

•

*
—
*_*J
•

“
'M'
“
BS*')–
—

“

˜
M{

—
4
”

˜
'8_
“
–
”
M
˜
'
˜
'M

—
@BS*')–
—

—
8@_
”
BS
˜
B)
“
'B
˜


˜

”
,
”
'
“
M{'k
˜
BS
”
]8'
—
–
”

'
“

—
–
”
@
•
_*
*_
—
,*
—

—
*_*"N
ig*FJ@YBS*')+0'B?@7')•pzDY
Cd*.'D*383*[a,,-Nm*U.'FA
M*:22,B=*('L2@7,1@2,JC,'VD')[
*FBCDFM*C0'B5*16:'b•pzN
gh]k'30/3*'(*')A'=J**B=FM^
,PS')'*CNhDY3'*C'(*gh]k@*B=FM/
'+,)*5dTC'A3,_')B=*J*PN
zBCM83,('JF\D+G
;hDYC'+')V*V'),@_*FM^oF3_
BC+R•')JB=FD-@*lBC')*,d,B*e
'4*B=*BT*BCJ*U*'0*BC*0,'LYV'BC
*0,JqF\*')*,d_Q*B=FM^•h(V'4*B=*0'B+
'')RBC@'*YBC8,_sD')RBC,BN
;hDYC'+')V*e**@*B=FM^M8g*•h("

'B=*53,R*'*('*).'DYEVm\'u
Nig*FJ_*FM3,R**_3Y'D'AM*,A
BCmFM*NQ^O(*l*FMBUM8FA*'5
mJC,@Y**YM_*3*8'D*=‹_*
l4*[ŠF'4*N
O*3811•7•622:'V(Pg(')B^*x:*l,W@F@
!@h@ '@O'g5@O*3cfFa)'V'35*O*'O'
g5"@.'30/BTP3,')*BS*
')+NVk(*['BT*bx:Fa)'VkFO'g5"'L*38%
9•%•622:@BC_**'')D/'s'0'BS12'b•pz
V'(**3'')D_****8SY*'30N
Y@R*(*_y
6
3Q*.'BT3P')
12
'*C''_*Nm*'V(*[x:Y')@,\'*5,'D
3BT-')'L**'L4,621$N+8UM8FA*,('
™BS*')+,\'**YCgh]k3BCDFM*™3.
'J.''@,3*@')*YYZ'O,5*'8*YN
)** !@•Oz!#$%@>2][5gh]k'+
'*,_+'(*P8D@,_+'8(*AP
VFBS*BTUM8FA*3JqF\*D*[BT*'(*gh]k
'30@,ABCVFBS*')'*CNZC'L*d*/'@
'L**')SJ^[5gh]k'30JKY*''
*'(*gh]k'L*8''BT*'(@,B@(t,@
SŽ"@'84@54FQ*58')*J_*@F(*')@
,ABCD"Nc_+'BTJqF\*')*')B=*T38'B=*3,_+
'8(*APkocf"@pygo]k3"@c ]ohcV"@ p pW"N
c('J*'(*gh]k'4**5,0JqF\*BC@F\
B**F\*,_+'ny!|W'''8')*'*

BT*0BCM8')l*@m*B'8,d\@*V'
')DM8')l*F'(_*.,N
O**0M8BTk(')B=*VP_*'V)B=*V
P*'*$•6229'.854*'(*
')*'HII JK')0,')P*SR*JFA !/_*4,
622%N
OB/*C'^0c^0GDYC'+')V*.,
'303,ABCDFM*@8*5/BT3
P')'*C3''B)BC*3,\'3
'+,V@j'*5,*l''53;'M8*M8
'BT*gh]k'303'+,*5'*CNB
''.8_*')+P3')'*C/_*YJA
0'3*5'BCC'*'8T
BC')'*C3')*AFBC'(*'303
,ABCDFM*N
1.2. TÌNH HÌNH NGHIÊN CỨU Ở TRONG NƯỚC
1.2.1. Khái quát chung
11
OB/*C''^0,^0@Z'O,3,('')*7*
')'*C['(*.''BT*gh]k,3\'D3'BT*
BCDFM*;5'4*'(3,,-'').'Y*F''5
3]O]"N’*g))Fyš*3hBS*')+
g5'l''*C/B)5Y“Cuộc chiến
chống lại biến đổi khí hậu: Đoàn kết nhân loại trong một thế giới phân cách” 
'GO,ABCDFM*BFA34,62$2'+d*l*X*
J_*q*hgp"JKY5*>7…F'.'[a,,-,
u@4*J.'eJK*5,9…NO,ABCDFM*1,@0C
hgpJK3'3*')j*'=*F3')*4,„N
*kT'3!'')D'yoz"@3
klcX,')*FJ12'3[FV.'^gh]k

*l,''3g,8•h(@zg*FJ@BT*k5@‰5*
M)*‰@!NklcZ'O,@g*@
w*c8,)"N
5'')D*B=622%;622:•Oz!@'(
')').''4*',6
2
@'+Y5*66')*B=^Z'O,JK,.'3q
3>7…F'.'_**^d*l*X*J_*q*JK*+,
')*BCDN
5 !@4,6122@,ABCDFM*',1
,u'JK5B^*7….'@12…FMJ@'(*%…J5U.'_*
*@3,*5,12…xz!Z'O,*lGz*'N'NN622%"@)*J5
U.''DJKJ8*5,'.'1•$JC8*l•Oz!"N
Q'*O*M3**C|g"@BCDFM*1
,@Y'C6%…J5'A')P*@$$…5'l@6$…AYJA
FV*JPZ'O,['(*N
V('5“Đánh giá nhu cầu nâng cao năng lực về biến đổi khí hậu cho
các tổ chức phi chính phủ”F)*'M,FB
•

˜
Oxy'_
“
B
”
*3821•2%•622:'V
k3O(@VDU@BCDFM*$2,'+hgpJKY'D[
a,,-',12,@*8S,-Y^hgp3,*5,9…4*J.'M8
')l*'_34,62$2N*_*Zm)B=*'(
Wno''VZ'O,@,E'H,ABCDY'DFM*7,@4,

62%2Y'DFM*?9,@4,6122BCDY'DJKFM*'C5*1,u'NO
BCDFM*'FAB8JK5B^*16…F'312@:…
16
FMJ66')*B=,.'3q33,*5,12…xz!N’*)B=*.
,VGBCDFM*',1,u''+hl*X*p_*kl*hgpk"JK[
*5*7N222,
6
@hgpJK[*62N222,
6
Fr,.'.'3*5,J5
BT*_**NOBCDFM*1,u'Y'DJK3,*5,J5BT*BS*
'A'C16…7')'."'Vhgpk@hgpNO'('4*',1
2
Y'D
3,*5,7…62…J5BT**_312…J5BT*e*VN]4*J.'J5
BT*'_*5,'+'++F[m**'4*@FV*JP')*
M,*m*['(*,V,KN
Vk('5Pgh]k'303*5*YZ'O,'
'Vk3O('L*386?69•26•622:@3P')*BC3
Y*[G,ABCDFM*1,JK3,1•7F'
/'[*+,')*BC@5*66')*B=FMJK[,.'3q3.'
'Nn*d*hgp@,ABCDFM*'L2@6,2@?,JK
Y1N%2:,
6
.'[*5B^*'C3*\')*B=JJ*NzBCM83
'Y,BT,('J[3'5*,('J3P')*
BC/')+38'Vk('5G
;!xpNp)0\;Z')B^*Z]P]'BT*843
c_')B=*'G™b0BCDFM*,(',u'e*'JK,.',('
F'.'5*17N222,

6
;62N222,
6
'Vhl*X*J_*q*™N
;O3PO*8a]jk;!
”
')BS
“
*–
“

˜
_*BS
”
–
”
M
˜

—
O*
˜

˜
'B]8'@'
—

“

—

Z
˜
'O,'
˜
_
˜
*
˜
g/')+
38'Y,'j',('J'5[5gh]k^Z'O,BT')+38')*
5*1N1@1N631N$N
Bảng 1.1: Thông báo Quốc gia về Biến đổi khí hậu ở Việt Nam (so với năm 1990)
Năm Nhiệt độ tăng thêm (
0
C) Mực nước biển tăng thêm (cm)
6212 2@$;2@7 9
6272 1@1;1@: $$
6122 1@7;6@7 >7
Bảng 1.2: Kịch bản BĐKH các vùng của Việt Nam
(nhiệt độ tăng thêm
0
C so với năm 1990)
Năm Tây Đông Đồng Bắc Nam Tây Nam
1$
Bắc Bắc bằng BB Trung Bộ Trung Bộ nguyên Bộ
6272 1@>1 1@?? 1@>> 1@?: 1@1$ 1@21 1@61
6122 $@>9 >@$: $@%1 $@:: 6@%% 6@$9 6@:2
Bảng 1.3: Kịch bản nước biển dâng ở Việt Nam so với năm 1990 (cm)
Năm
Kịch bản

2050 2100
W1‡1 1$@% $9@%
W6 16@7 $$@1
W1g 1$@$ $1@7
g6 16@: 6:@:
W1 16@% 6%@9
g1 1$@> 6?@9
')*+5?[5'+'HII '(')*+
BC'Y54*'4*',6@:
2
@,ABCDFM*',$%,Np
')B'JA'4*,3b'JAF/^BCVFBS*N
I'*gh]k^Z'O,'_*O*8a]jkG"O'(^
d*gj'4*Sd*O,<"O'(^d*D
'4*,Sd*JMS')*\[<"h'HII '(
')*+BC'Y'D'4*','L>@2

>@7
2
'[5.'
3'L6@2

6@6
2
'[5'..'N
m*'Vk('5PY')@*8'[BC)0hBS*
/FA3B),('J[BC*JM8R*_*053,D
Y3'*C'+')V*gh]kG
;*'@)e')*,'3_*3B'3_*_*
'')*'H@BTt8,V')*'=V')**Y

CVƒ''„'B=*U8U58)^d*l*X*'.@d*
D<
;IM8FA*,V*BC,BS*)(*C\\'BC3'BC
l*X*<
;x'*<
1>
;IM8FA*_*')+l'8;'8T''^'BT**l<
;L*BCUM8FA*'8D'Lgj3O,'TUM8FA*
*''''m3*4,-^qJ_*<
;IM8FA*_*')+‹=*JV'^J_*3D<
;OVu'qJ_*@l*35*<
;gS,''BCBŠ*CVe*@*JM3_a,-*'V
d*.''.^l*X*3DN
;OR*_*')+Y8,_C@UM8FA*R*MF3B'*
_*')+ƒ*J*Cm„^l*X*q*@'8Dgj;O,0
BTV[Y4P'8@,Y*@DR*_*
BT'A*388QBT''T',JN
O*389•9•6229g(3O*83c_')B=*/'_*[
5gh]k3BCDFM*Z'O,')*'HII '')B=*T
''5')*+@'.3NY@'*C''5'@v'5,_
')B=**B='''+'A'Y'DFa)'[5''5'.N]
Y@'(4,6122b'4*'L1@>

1@%

'd8''L*d*N8
@FMJ'4*@BC''\*'4*JA''5'+[5
''5).'Y'DJK')^'3'AN]Y@'(Y'D'4*'L6@1



$@?

@'3,'4**._[5''5'.N
][5BCDFM*m*/BTUM8FA*'[5''5
'.;')*+;NY@3*R'HII @,ABCDY'DFM*
',0BT'36:,›$2,›$$,3'HII @,ABCDFM*
','L?7,;%7,;122,JC'=†19:2;1999N
[5')*+@3'HII '(')*+4,Y'D
'4*6@?

^M8j@6@7

^h_*j@6@>

^hggg@6@:

^gj)*
(@1@9

^O,)*(@1@?

^M8*836@2

^O,(JC')*
+'=†19:2;1999NO'(^d*gj3gj)*(JK
'4*SJC'(^d*O,NV,Ed*@'(
,d_*JK'4*S'(,d‹N*BT*,B4,3BT*,B
,d,B^'.'5d*BC''4*@')*YBT*,B,d_Y
UBC**5,N
''@[5')*+U58)@3*R'HII ,ABC

DY'DFM*',5*$2,3'H38@,ABCDY'D
17
FM*',5*%7,JC'=†19:2;1999N][5m*''V
3klc BCDFM*',?7,'+V,*316:
,
6
,?…F'<FM*%7,*62>,
6
,12…3FM*122,
'+F'*'C>%$,
6
@,6$…F''3NVhgp
BCDFM*?7,'+F'*37N1$$,
6
@,16@:…<FM*%7
,@*%N7:2,
6
@,19…<FM*122,'+F'*317N11?,
6
@
,$%@:…F'd*l*X*N
1.2.2. Một số công trình khoa học đã nghiên cứu có liên quan đến tiêu nước và
biến đổi khí hậu ở Việt Nam
1) Nghiên cứu Biến đổi khí hậu Châu Á: Báo cáo của Việt Nam (ADB, 1994)
#>$&FZ‰8V8T')+'A@BT'3')T'LO*M3*'
')DM‘N,*d*'A*QY8**
'L12S*Z'O,BZ]'BT*84@)B=*hVP
8T@Z]P8T@)B=*hVP*TNO*m*
BT'B.')A''L !3BS*')+TB•Oo!@
•Oz!@•O•opW!@•Onz@|gNO*8'')*3BA

J_*kl*;g+3J_*q*@*l,Y"(*
C'A3U/(^Z',@"APJ
YC@"BT*Y*N
(*BTU,Uu'3*[BT*'BS*
''@\'D_**@'3*8BC@J'*,-@M,*@
'*4*BT*@Js(*l*3SJ^V'0*N]'5*/
U.'JYC*l,*5G"
*<"]D,''53'L*l4*BT*@V'(*J5
U.'_**@_**@M,*@F[\<"x5,'53')*
*3_**4*BT*@UM8FA*@*'_*'5@_**@M,
*N
2) Thông báo đầu tiên của Việt Nam cho công ước chung của Liên hợp quốc về
biến đổi khí hậu g(3*83c_')B=*@622$" #$1&/D,''5
3Z'O,4,199>@U.'BS**5,'53N
c('')*R*(F*_*3''FA'(*
'30'3*8BC%d*/'Z'O,FA
')'5FAp nyN][5JqF\*')*_*BTM'3
1?
Y,G[5'(3[5BT*,BN
BAJ_*kl*;g+Yd*M8gj~h_*gj3d*
hgggN_*m*FA'(*gh]k*3_**@M,
*@'8J5@4*BT*@*'_*'5N_*m*U.'UM8FA*
'*')j'BT*'843'4*B=*4*A(*m(*
N
3) Báo cáo sơ bộ đánh giá tác động của biến đổi khí hậu đến vùng hạ du và ven
biển lưu vực sông Hồng - Thái BìnhZ‰8V8T@622:"#>%&N]'
5**JS('.8gh]kJK'(*).',V'3(
'*BAJ_*kl*;g+BJGh4,6262C,ABCD
FM*',1%,d*C'4*BT*,B')BAFrJ'')*+
'3d*V'5*1:•J•@F'[e*5*$22N222M^

Al*X*DNm*C')B=*T,ABCDFM*',1%,'+
'(*3,FM*,ABCmb'D)€^A*0qJ_*')*+
$7,''LqJ_*"@'*J_*r5,5@)*J_*)3vY,A
BCmU.Ub')+b0YM*')+3*Ng
/*'(*'L*..BC@'''BC@Q**m
d*CU.'*5*Y@'*N!V,*@,(*m*
BT*.5lN
4)Quy hoạch sử dụng tổng hợp nguồn nước lưu vực sông Hồng - Thái Bình
Z‰8V8T@622%" #>:&NO(F*8V38m*/JS(
*'(*'30d*VB3d*D
BAJ_*kl*;g+N(*\'DV'(*.BC@'
''BC3Q**m/BTJS([BT*d*CU.'3'
'*5'*N88FV'=*m*BJ
'(*,CbFL*^,*JS(N
5) Chiến lược phát triển thuỷ lợi đến năm 2020 Z‰8V8T@6227"
#>7&m*/U,Uu''(*'30N8F
'=*3YV5BT38BU,Uu'BT'3
F8'Y5B^*'C'')D'HT@m*BB
''BT08*50YDQ**5B^*38N
6) Nghiên cứu cơ sở khoa học và giải pháp công nghệ để phát triển bền vững
lưu vực sông Hồng Z‰8V8T@622:"#7$&Nc\'3'5
1%
*'3383'+,*5M'B*lBCBAJ_*
kl*4,62625,55JqF\*BC3*'',_
')B=**lBCBAJ_*N!BS*3'''*_*')+
'8TBTU[')SJ^'''B'*3JqF\*
BC,\'JqF\*BCB.BC')l*')P'@4_@'8J5@
_**@JV'@'Ž"N]'5*/U[BS*
8DBC'LFQ*J_*kl*J*BC3,*5,'D_a,*l
BCBAJ_*O;h83BAJ_*_a,).'')0,')P*8"N

h'3/')D*F\*_**xWcpD*58'3''B
'83'*_*')+M*lBC,\'JqF\*
BC')BAJ_*@,_+'J'*lBCoy,_s*
,_')B=*J'@_a,,V-*')**lBCBAJ_*NxWcp
3oy3R*_**''8')'*C@Z‰8V
8T3'*0'^Z'O,'8D*3')D
B3*F\*'3_*^Z'O,"N
7) Dự án rà soát quy hoạch thủy lợi lưu vực sông Nhuệ Z‰8V8
T@622%"#72&. ]'5*/U.'BS*8V5,5G".
BCV'(*JqF\*BC@"5'.'BT**lBC'
'tZ'O,@"'e*BAJ_*O'_*
_*')+BUM8FA*')V,S,wO*Œ@M*.,^)(**cV@
3*k3h_*@hl*‰@O'A@BS*@jx*'T
CVu'Q*FrJ_*O3@".BC3F8')+FQ*
58,_')B=*58'\')*,d_VB*BS*CBBT*
'L7;:,
$
•J@.BBT*7,
$
•J')V,S,\8!BS*3J_*_[*e
*5,'D_a,*lBCVJ_*_[58')*('3k3O(@"
U.'BS*Y**'8D'3(BC'5k3O()J_*
kl*')V,S,wp^3,d_N
8) Nghiên cứu xây dựng quy trình vận hành hệ thống liên hồ chứa Hòa Bình,
Thác Bà, Tuyên Quang phục vụ cấp nước trong mùa cạn cho hạ du lưu vực
sông Hồng-Thái Bình Z‰8V8T@622%"#71&. p5t,8
')+35,53'*lCkQg+@g3@8
‰*3'*_*')+'*lBCd*VFBAJ_*kl*;
g+\\.BCJV'@_**@_**@'8J5@*
'_*'8380,_')B=*.'BT*BCNO*/*F\*_*

1:
*xWcp*58'3''B'83'*_*')+M
*lBC,\'JqF\*BC')BAJ_*kl*;g+@
5,5,\'.BC*3JqF\*BCl*'='BBT*
')'3'*l,\'N
9)Quy hoạch thủy lợi vùng duyên hải ven biển Bắc Bộ và Bắc Trung bộ #>9&F
Z‰8V8T3)B=*hVP8T'A4,622%YJA
TZ]'‰8V8J5Nc\'3J5t,3*5
8'..BC@'''BC@Q**m3*5,•''
*')+'')Dd*D'L‰5*OLkN]'
5''FA'.84,6262'*'8_*O,g+JK
_*5,5.BC1:N222.''8k5Q^
8\8'('*'8Tgjg+JKY*0?N222_*Y
_*')+'NV'bOg+@'*J_*Y')+'.@,-'
s@B5,580*m'T')DFM*@'*Dg+c
Y[')U*8BY‹5@,('J‹3*/Y'+[[s*N
!BS*8VU.'*55,5.BC'3d*@5,
5'''380Q**m/4,6262N
10) Dự án Quy hoạch phòng chống lũ đồng bằng sông Hồng Z‰8V
8T@6222" #>>&.x5Q**mU.'l*hgpk*l,G"
BS*lj'm'BT**l@_*')+3*mVF<"
I[,\Q**mlCBkQg+@g3@
8‰*@pS@M<"I[5_*')+*
FQ*58mB*J_*h3@M‰0@hQk3@p_*kYm*
BMm,mC')BAJ_*kl*;g+N
11) Đề tài khoa học cấp Bộ: Nghiên cứu đề xuất quy hoạch và giải pháp nâng
cấp các hệ thống thủy lợi vùng ven biển Đồng bằng Sông Hồng nhằm thích ứng
với biến đổi khí hậu #7>&FZ‰8V8T')+'A'L4,
6229NzA'3JK3'334,6212C'5V'BTBJG
"h*,(5B^*BCDFM*Fgh]k'''BC

d*hgpk<"hU.'BT8V3*5M*.'*'8T
d*DhgpkX,'*Cgh]kN
12) Đề tài khoa học cấp Bộ: Nghiên cứu ảnh hưởng của công nghiệp hoá và đô
thị hoá đến hệ số tiêu vùng Đồng bằng Bắc Bộ #$9&F)*'M,]P3
19
)Df'''8T'(')B=*hVP8T')+'A'L4,
622:@FA''e')*4,6212C'5V'BTBJG"I[
BT,(5B^*_**3_'[J'd*
hggg<"hU.'BTBS*''J'YUu'5B^*
_**3_'[<*5b8V'3*5_*
')+'8TdTC'')D_**@_'[d*hgggN
13) Đề tài khoa học: Nghiên cứu chỉnh sửa tiêu chuẩn thiết kế công trình thủy
lợi áp dụng cho vùng Đồng bằng sông Hồng thuộc dự án Thủy lợi sông Hồng
giai đoạn 2 (ADB3) #6:&.hM83'3PF!xpNpN‰*Z3,
,@k(8T')+YJA',*8*)B=*hV
P8T@Z]P8TZ'O,@Z‰8V8T3k(
BC'Z'O,N]'AFWzg3k3'3')TN=
*'A3'3')*4,6229Nc\''33G
1"h*V'(*33_*')+'8T')BAJ_*
kl*FBC'(*M'G"JA'')D';U/('(*
_**Y3_'[Y@80BCV'(*'')D';U/
("<"JA'8'30<
6"hU.'bJq3JV't''_*')+'8T'
')*3b'.BC3'BC"'VBAJ_*kl*\\FA
0'BUM8FA*_*')+'8TX**lWzgN
14) Bộ Nông nghiệp và PTNT CJAE')TST/UM8
FA*,('BS*')+YC'+')V*m@*\'^hgp*l,
50'BDUM8'*''BC@'*@,BS*U**
FMBd*C\l)L**,-DC'*
5*1@?'b•pz*V622?;621235*1@$'b•pz*V

6212;6262N
1.2.3. Nhận xét và đánh giá chung về các công trình khoa học đã công bố có
liên quan đến biến đổi khí hậu ở Việt Nam
BS*'AC'++*'*C@0'_*')+P/
_*)(*)/^Z'O,,Cb'')*3FA[5gh]k'3
03BCDFM*Nk0'_*')+JqF\*FA !@•Oz!@
|gYd*O,‘@h_*O,‘3Z'O,B*^,(JS(
')V,)(*N]'_*')+P_***5
62
V3'*Cgh]k'30/_*^BC'')*'=*
'.8R*.JM8Y'338rBBT*
*58'G
;B*''Fa'BT*'84@-
'3FaFQ*58BAJ_*^Z'O,')*YYBAJ_*
kl*›J_*g+<
;B*''Fa(FQ*58d*qJ_*
D[5B^*,V'8')"BAJ_*^Z'O,')*
YYBAJ_*kl*›J_*g+<
;B*'''(*\'D'8
0'''BCF'4*BT*,B'),B')*,d,B<
;BY*@'''''8('8(*AFQ*
58V,d*'(*'*'''BC@'*_*')+
Q**''<
;BY_*')+P3_*'5*
0'BC3'''BC'*
'8TY*3k'*'8_*O,g+Y)*FBC'(*
gh]k'30N
1.3. KẾT LUẬN CHƯƠNG 1
g'30*3,FVRC,P*
')'*C')*YYZ'O,N_*')+P^')*BC3'*C

')*R*4,,Cb'')*UM8FA*[5@'+,
,*5V'+')V*U.'30m*B*5
X,'*CNY).'''*53_*')+P/
_*'5*5B^*'L*ŒA\
'DNZŒA‰8V35v'3*8BC@8rB'
'.8_*')+P3^')*BC3'*C/_*
.J'380'BC'*'8TF5
B^*3BCDFM*NhM83SJ^')P*D+
'3'3“Nghiên cứu sự biến đổi của nhu cầu tiêu và biện pháp tiêu nước
cho hệ thống thủy nông Nam Thái Bình có xét đến ảnh hưởng của biến đổi khí hậu
toàn cầu”N
61
Chương 2
BIẾN ĐỔI KHÍ HẬU Ở ĐỒNG BẰNG BẮC BỘ VÀ TÁC ĐỘNG
CỦA CHÚNG ĐẾN TIÊU THOÁT NƯỚC
2.1. KHÁI QUÁT CHUNG
Zd*l*X*gjg(Q*P3d*l*X*J_*kl*"+'*
'DYFV*',*Cb3'3Z')+'b!ePQ83B=*
=DuF3'L'3kV*'b‰5*OA,8],pS
66
'bOg+NO4,19:2Z\O_*M,'(œ8]VO3BC83
g(]V3h0'B"/5BC'3%d*_**')*YY,('
d*,*'l*X*gjg(C[*C3*l,12'b3'3
3k3O(@k5!Q*@ZŒ!e@gjO@k5zBS*@kB*w@k3O,@
g+@O,h[@Og+NMd*38'+,('0F'le
k3O(@k5!Q*@ZŒ!e@gjO@Og+@k5zBS*3k3O,
rBTU3d*l*X*J_*kl*')*0,'b
‰5*O3,('(d*hgpkV_*BTB3N4,
622:d*hgggY'*F''A1N>:?N672')*Y5*')
%?2N2223.'_**@FMJ')1:@?')*B=N

hl*X*gjg(BT'V'3F')+l'\dJ'*
J_*kl*3J_*g+@(*RA_*N
!0Cd*l*X*Y('L2@>,16@2,')*YFBC>@2,,
'C77@:…5*6N1"NA')m*'.,'HC'B=*'')*
J_*JSY('A'.S,ABCJ_*')*,d,Bm
_*Y54*'A''',35FA3'X*(*AN
Bảng 2.1: Phân bố diện tích vùng đồng bằng Bắc Bộ theo cao độ
Cao độ (m) Diện tích (ha) Tỷ lệ % Cao độ (m) Diện tích (ha) Tỷ lệ %
•1@2 $22N$>$ 62@61 7@2›?@2 19N?:2 1@$6
1@2›6@2 6%9N$22 1:@%9 ?@2›%@2 >1N1?2 6@%%
6@2›$@2 1$>N6?2 9@2$ %@2›:@2 1>N%22 2@99
$@2›>@2 117N>62 %@%% :@2›9@2 17N?:2 1@2?
>@2›7@2 >1N$22 6@%: ž9@2 76>N>2% $7@6:
zY[+X*`*3')m*'..''BC^hggg
8FA3_*')+'TN)*,d,B'3(d*M'
'B=*U8[FV^m\'3/,V@3*8SFV,_')B=*
8'LUB'C8Nc-'@F(*(,-'.'Y*3,-')(*Y
)*^d*l*X*'8sB*VY5B^*).'C('
3'''BCN)*V,,('[BS*8,('As@
(,-'.'b,('3,u'm*3,'8(J5U.'m*
B*5_*')+'''BCN
)5'H*PC'@MFMd*l*X*/
UM8FA*BT'*3=d*M'VF08-d*3**3_*
')+'8T\\80*m@'BC@'@5'V.'Ž_*')+'8
TBl@@')V,S,@*d*C,V*BC,BS*@_*')+')
@B=*U@@=@=d*NŽ/'V'3'*_*')+
6$
'8TQ*P3'*'8T8'*'8_*"N'*'8T
BTUM8FA*d*C8''ABJ_*@*Q/j'd*
l*X*'3R*A(-'BS*(@BT*P3d*

'8TNk8d*hl*X*gjg(/+'366d*'8TY8
,_).'N)*J66d*Y')@Yd*BTs'3
'*'8T@Yd*BT''3,(''*'8TNcE'*'8
TF,('-F*'_*')+'8T5vNk'*
'8_*O,g+3,('')*J66d*'8Thl*X*gjg(N
zY[+')m*'.@[j',V^,V*BCJ_**QF08-d*
C-D,+'3@')+5'VM*.m*B5v',3
0C_*')+')*'*'8T_*V'(*(,3*R
e*Y,V@'_*35B^*rNA'0
B_*YJAM)€)3*BA'_*')+'0,*
''A583')V,S,'"m*B3_*')+')'*
'N
Zd*l*X*gjg(Y'(_'[3_**Fa)J_
(*3.'BCNz'.'_**@l3')m*Y54*
')R3''BC,B*38,(''•80'BC*38,('4*
'`*SN
hl*X*gjg(3AY'*'8TBTUM8FA*'BS*
3b3l*(.'BCN8@0'_*')+*R[')'
'')*'*'8TY'=*\\F3'L')$24,',
'C')1224,/[U*.).'*,')P*Nc-'_*')+38
BT''''')*'B'')D@0.BC
3''BCB34*'`*BM8*=@^8e*_**
BT80'A'aN
2.2. BIẾN ĐỔI KHÍ HẬU Ở ĐỒNG BẰNG BẮC BỘ
2.2.1. Mạng lưới trạm quan trắc khí tượng
')V,'BT*3,B^hgggM'BS*Nc('J
')V,BT'''L).'JC,B*1::?"@pSM819$$"@k3h_*19$?"@
k5zBS*1969"@kB*w1966"@!da192>"@g+19$$"NNN8
F')'=*')j')V,_*'\@0
C[*V'L4,19>%197?-197%NpQ+V')V,

'BT*3,BBT')j083'\'L197?'C8NhD\
\*@/JqF\*'3')V,pSM8@*@k3h_*@
6>
kB*w@k5zBS*@!da@g+@Z4v@O,h[@!v@O‰@
Og+NZ[')')V,')j'BT*U,+6N6N
2.2.2. Biến đổi về nhiệt độ
b')*Q**0q'H@'L4,19?28@'(')*+4,
'3d*hggg/'4*'L2@>
2
2@?
2
@JT'_*V*5,`'L
')*+,E4,Y69T'_*V')*'19%1;1992
U*Q6>T',E4,')*'H1991;6222@-'')*4,'L199>
;622:bQ17T'1?T')u',E4,N
Bảng 2.2: Nhiệt độ trung bình năm của một số trạm khí tượng
TT Trạm đo
Nhiệt độ trung bình năm theo thời kỳ (
o
C)
1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2008
1 *k3O(" 6$@7 6$@7 6$@? 6>@1 6>@>
6 O,h[ 6$@> 6$@> 6$@> 6>@2 6>@2
$ g+ 6$@$ 6$@$ 6$@6 6$@$ 6$@7
Hình 2.1: Xu thế biến đổi nhiệt độ trung bình năm tại trạm Láng
67