CHIẾN LƯỢC ĐẦU TƯ- investment fables - BẢN TIẾNG ANH

Investment Fables
Tall Tales about Stocks
Fable: A brief fictitious story embodying a moral and using persons, animals or
inanimate objects as characters; A falsehood or lie (WebsterÕs Dictionary)
As investors, you have all been on the receiving end of sales pitches from brokers,
friends and investment advisors about stocks that they claim will deliver spectacular
returns. These stories not only sound persuasive and reasonable but are also backed up by
evidence - anecdotal, in some cases, and statistical, in others - that the strategies work.
When you try to implement them for your investments, though, you seldom can match
their success on paper. All to often, you end up with buyerÕs remorse, poorer for the
experience and promising yourselves that you will not fall for the allure of these stories
again. All too often, you forget the lessons of past mistakes and are easy prey for the next
big stock story.
While there are literally hundreds of schemes to beat the market in circulation,
they are all variants of about a dozen basic themes that have been around for as long as
there have been stocks to buy and sell. These broad themes are modified, given new
names and marketed as new and different investment strategies by salespeople to a new
generation of investors. There must be something in these stories that appeals to investor
instincts and to human weaknesses - greed, fear and hubris, to name but three- to give
them the staying power that they do. This book is an exploration of the appeal of these
stories, why so many fall for them and fail with them, and what it may take to win with
each of them.
As you will see, with each story, there is a kernel of truth that makes it believable
and a base in financial theory that allows proponents to claim to have a solid rationale.
Each chapter will begin with an examination of the basis for each investment story and
the theory that would justify its adoption. Why bother with the theory? Not only will it
give you perspective on what makes each story work, but it will also allow you to
identify potential weaknesses with the story.
If you have been on the receiving end of one of these investment stories, you
probably have also been told of studies that back them up and you are offered evidence of

their potency. It should come as no surprise, given the source, that most of these studies
give you only a portion of the truth. As you will see in this book, every investment
strategy ever devised has succeeded for some periods and with some stocks, but the
complete picture requires an assessment of whether it works over long periods and with a
wide cross section of stocks. That is why you will see a review of the existing empirical
evidence, drawn from both believers and skeptics, on each strategy and some of the
potential problems with each.
With every investment strategy, investors also grapple with the question of what
adopting that strategy will mean in terms of investment choices. If you adopt a strategy of
buying ÒlowÓ PE stocks, you have to make a judgment of what represents a low PE ratio
and what types of stocks have low PE ratios? If you believe that your best investments
are in small companies you have to decide how to measure the size of companies - sales,
market capitalization etc and what level would represent a small company. You will be
presented with rules of thumb, that a PE of 8 is cheap or that a company with a market
capitalization less than $ 100 million is small, but these rules of thumb can be dangerous
as markets themselves change over time. To provide a frame of reference, this book will
examine the distribution of various measures - PE, price to book and market
capitalization, to name a few- across the entire market. This should then allow you to get
a sense of differences across the market and to develop portfolio standards.
The best test of any strategy is to apply it to the market and to peruse the portfolio
that you would have ended up with as a result of following it. This book will attempt to
do this with each of the broad strategies examined and you can ask yourself whether you
would be comfortable investing in the stocks that make up this portfolio. If you are not, it
is a warning sign that this strategy may not be appropriate for you. If you are a careful
investor, putting this portfolio under a microscope will allow you to probe the strategy for
weaknesses and examine what you can do to minimize the damage.
It is worth emphasizing what this book is about and what it will not try to do. It is
not about promoting or debunking investment strategies, since there are plenty of analysts
and brokers who do the former and lots of cynics, many from academia, who do the
latter. But it is about providing a full picture of each investment strategy, so that you can

make your own judgments about what works and what does not. It is not about giving
you the answers to every investment question that has ever been asked; no one can have
the foresight to do this. But it is about providing you with the ammunition to ask the right
questions when confronted with promoters of these strategies. It is not a book for
pessimists who are convinced that picking stocks is an exercise in futility, but it is a book
for optimists who want to figure out how to make active strategies pay off and how to use
them prudently. It is not about things you cannot and should not do while investing but it
is about things you can and should do as an investor to improve your odds for success.
As long as there have been financial markets, there have been mountebanks and
frauds luring investors into get-rich schemes that ultimately fail. In the aftermath of these
failings, you are often tempted to turn to the courts and to governments to protect you
from yourselves. The best antidote, though, to an unscrupulous sales pitch about Òstocks
that cannot loseÓ or to a Òget rich quicklyÓ scheme is a skeptical and informed investor.
I hope this book helps in this endeavor.

ù
CHAPTER1
ìềèẻẹĩậíèìẹề
ìêằ-ơãạã-ô-ơđãằ-ơáơ-ôẳạẳâáằơáằĐđằơẳắôơẳKơáẳô
ôẳằđẵ-ằ-ẵđôơãĐũí-ãẳằđằâổịôĐ-ơẵàãạẳẵãằ-ẳơáằđằơôđ-âã
-ôđằĐâũịôĐơằđắẳằâ-ũịôĐơằđạẳằâ-ũơẵà-âĐ-âããơáằạ
ơằđũ â ơáằ ã-ãẳằđ-ũ ịôĐ -ơẵà-âãơáắãạẳãêãẳằẳ-ũịôĐ-ơẵà-ơáơáêằạằẳâ
ơáằ -ơũ âãơá -ơẵà- ơáơáêằạằôơáằ-ơũẫáơàằ-ơáằ-ằ-ơđãằ-ôđãạã-
ơáơ ơáằđằ ã- àằđằ ơđôơá ơ ằẵá ằ ơáằ-ằ -ơđãằ- ắôơ ằ ơáằã-đũầô
âã ằăãằ ơáằ-ằ ẳ ơáằđ ãêằ-ơằơ -ằ-ãơẵáằ-ãơáã-ắàụẵ-ãẳằđơáằơằơã
ẳâ-ãẳằâãơáằẵáẳáâĐôãạáơắằắằơẳãĐằẵáằơđằẳôẵằẳâ-ãẳằ
đã-àũ
ThePoweroftheStory
ỉô ắằãạ- đằ ôẵá đằ ãàằĐ ơ ắằ -âĐằẳ ắĐ ạẳ-ơđĐơáơáằĐđằắĐ
ạđá-ẳôắằđ-ũèáằ-ơằằẵơãêằ-ằ-ãơẵáằ-ơãêằ-ơđ-ơằẵằãạ-ơđĐụ

ắẵàằẳôắĐằẵẳơằêãẳằẵằũịôơâáơàằ--ơđĐẵằãạãơáằãđ-ơẵằỏ
ìêằ-ơằơ -ơđãằ- đằ ẵêãẵãạ ơ Đ ắằẵô-ằơáằĐđằơẳâằắôơ-ắằẵô-ằơáằĐ
ẳđâ -ằêằđ ẵ ẵơđ-ổ
ể-ơ ạẳ ãêằ-ơằơ -ơđãằ- ằ ơôẳằơẵằơáôơôđằụ
âáằơáằđãơắằạđằằẳụáằụằđđằêĐũìẵơụâáơơằ-ằơ-đơ-ôẵẵằ ô
ãêằ-ơằơ -ằ-ằằ đ ô-ôẵẵằ ô ằ-ã-ơáằãđôẵĐắããơĐơạôạằ
ãêằ-ơđK- âằà -ơ- ẳ ẵđằơằ -ơđĐ ơ ơàằ ẳêơạằ ơáằũ
ẳ ãêằ-ơằơ -ơđãằ- đằ - ắẵàằẳ ô ắĐ ơáằ ằêãẳằẵằụ ơằ-ơ-đằ-ằơằẳắĐ
ơáằ -ơđĐơằằđũ ò- Đô âã -ằằãơáã-ắàụơáôạáụơáằằêãẳằẵằĐĐơằđơ
ơáằ -ơđĐ ẳ ôẵá âáơã-đằ-ằơằẳ-ãẵơđêằđơãắằđơáằằãẵẵĐ
ãêằ-ơằơ -ơđơằạĐ - đơ ẵ-ằđ ằăãơãũ
ì ằẵá ơáằ ẵáơằđ- ơáơ âụ Đô âã -ằằ ơáằ đơãằ ơáơ â- ơáằ -ơđãằ- đằ-ằơằẳ
ãơáã-ắàơđằ-ơằâãơáãêằ-ơđ-ơáđôạáơáằạằ-ũò-Đôđằẳơáằ-ằ-ằẵơã-ụĐô
âãôẳôắơằẳĐđằằắằđ-ơđãằ-ĐôáêằắằằơẳắĐĐôđắđàằđụãêằ-ơằơẳêã-đ
đ ằãạáắđ ơáơ đằ êđãơ-ũ
CategorizingInvestmentStories
ìêằ-ơằơ -ơđãằ- ẵằ ã đ-ũ ằ đằẳằ-ãạằẳơằơãêằ-ơđ-âá
ẳ ơ ãàằ ơ ơàằ đã-àụ ẳ ơáằĐ ạằằđĐ ơà ắôơ â đã-à âĐ- ơ Đ ơáằ -ơẵàđàằơũ
ẹơáằđ-đằđãằơằẳơâđẳ-đã-à-ằằàằđ-âáâơơạằơđãẵáôãẵàĐồơáằ-ằ-ơđãằ-
ằá-ãƯằ ơáằ ơằơã ô-ãẳằ ẳ áđẳĐ ằêằđ ơà ắôơ đã-àũ ơã ơáằđ-đằ-ơđôẵơôđằẳđ
ợ
ơá-ằâáắằãằêằơáơĐôẵạằơ-ằơáãạđơáãạãĐôđằ-đơằđđắằơơằđ
đằđằẳơáơáằđ-ãơáằđàằơũãĐụơáằđằđằ-ơđãằ-đơáằơãã-ơ-âáắằãằêằ
ơáơ Đô âĐ- âããơáằạơằđũìơáã ằẵơãụĐôâãạằơđằêãằâơáằ-ơđãằ-
ơáơ âã ắằ ằăãằẳ ã ẳằơã ã ơáằ ẵãạ ẵáơằđ-ũ
StoriesfortheRiskAverse
ằãêằ-ơđ-đằắđđã-àêằđ-ằâáằđằ-ơáằđ-ắằẵằđã-àêằđ-ằắằẵô-ằ
ẵãđẵô-ơẵằ- P ã-ằẵôđằ ảắ đ ãằẳãạ đằơãđằằơ ẵàằĐôđđằẵẵằđằẳ
ắôơ-ãạằĐũơãơáằđ-đằ-ẵđằẳãơđã-àêằđ-ãắĐằăơằẳằẳắằđđàằơũ
ẫáơằêằđơáằđằ-đơáằđã-àêằđ-ãụơáằãêằ-ơằơ-ơđãằ-ơáơ-ằơáằắằ-ơơơáằ-ằ

ãêằ-ơđ- ằá-ãƯằ âđã-à-ơđơằạãằ-âáãằđã-ãạôẵááãạáằđđằơôđ-ơáơáằĐđằ
àãạ ẵôđđằơĐ ơáằãđ -ằ ãêằ-ơằơ-ũ
HighDividendStocks
ẻã-àêằđ-ằãêằ-ơđ-ạằằđĐđằằđơáằ-ằơĐạêằđằơđáãạáạđẳằ
ẵđđơằ ắẳ- ơ ơáằ đã-àãằ -ơẵà-ũ èáằĐ ằằ đằ-ằẵôđằâãơáắẳ-ụàâãạơáơ
ơáằĐẵẵôơơáằ-ằắẳ-ẳằãêằđãạãẵằãơáằđẵô-âáãằơáằĐáẳ
ơáằẳơáơơáằđãẵããêằ-ơằẳãơáằ-ằắẳ-ã-ãơẵơũèơơđẵơơáằ-ằãêằ-ơđ-ơ
-ơẵà-ụĐôáêằơơđĐơằđơáằẵđắằãẵằẳ-ằơĐụâáãằ-đêãẳãạ
ơáằ đằãô đ ơàãạ ơáằ ẳẳãơã đã-àũơẵà-ơáơĐáãạáẳãêãẳằẳ-đằơơđẵơãêằ
ơ đã-à êằđ-ằ ãêằ-ơđ- ắằẵô-ằ ơáằĐ đằ-ằắằ ắẳ- ã ơằđ- ạằằđơãạ ãẵằâãơáơáằ
ẳẳằẳắô-đãẵằđằẵãơãũèáằẳãêãẳằẳ--ằ-ơẵà-đằáãạáằđơáơáằ
ẵô- Đô ằđ -ằ ắẳ- ẳâáãằơáằđãẵããêằ-ơằẳã-ơẵà-ã-ơđơằẵơằẳ
ãơáằ-ằâĐơáơơáằđãẵããêằ-ơằẳãắẳ-ã-ụơáằđã-àẵắằằêãơằẳãơáằ
ẵĐ Đãạ ơáằ ẳãêãẳằẳ ã- đạằ ẳ á- -ôắ-ơơã ằơ-ũ
Stocks with low price earnings ratios
ơẵà- ơáơ ơđẳằ ơ âôơãằ-ằđãạ-áêằáã-ơđãẵĐắằằêãằâằẳ-ắơá
ẵáằ ẳ - -ằ ằôãơĐ ãêằ-ơằơ-ũ ẫáãằ Đô ẵ-ằằâáĐ-ơẵàơáơơđẳằ-ơởơãằ-
ằđãạ-ã-ẵ-ãẳằđằẳẵáằụâáĐâôẳãơắằẵ ããằẳ ằỏèáằđằ-ôơãã-ơáơ
ơáằãđâãẵơãôằơàằơáằ-ằằđãạ-ãơáằạơằđẳơáã-ằđãạ-âằđ
-áôẳđêãẳằđơáằđãẵằũìẵơụêôằãêằ-ơđ-ãàằịằđááêằạ
đạôằẳơáơắôĐãạ-ơẵà-âãơáâéđơã-ã-âđã-àụáãạáđằơôđ-ơđơằạĐũđ
ãêằ-ơđ- âá đằ ẵẵằđằẳ ắôơ ơáằ đã-à ã ằôãơãằ-ụ ơáã- -ơđơằạĐ -ằằ- ơ ằđ â đã-à
âĐ ằơằđãạ ơáằ -ơẵà đàằơũ
ớ
Stocks that trade at less than book value
ò ẵ-ằ đằơãêằ ơáằ â é -ơẵà ã ơáằ ẵáằ -ơẵà ãĐ ã- ơáằ-ơẵàơáơơđẳằ-
ơắằâắàêôằũè-ằãêằ-ơđ-ụơáằắàêôằ-ơẵàã-ơĐơáằ
ẵẵôơơK- ằ-ôđằ áâ ôẵá ơáằ ằôãơĐ ã ãđ ã-âđơáụắôơã--đằđằãắằ
ằ-ôđằ-ơẵàK-âđơáơáơáằđàằơđãẵằụ-ằơắĐãêằ-ơđ âĐằẳắằẳ-ẳ
ẵãằ-ũ èáô-ụ -ơẵà ơáơ ơđẳằ- ơ ằ ơá ắàêôằã-êãằâằẳ-ôẳằđêôằẳ-ơẵàũ

è -ằ đã-à êằđ-ằ ãêằ-ơđ-ụ âá ắằãằêằ ơáơ ắà êôằ ã-ằôãêằơơãôãẳơãêôằụ
-ơẵà- ơáơ ơđẳằ ơ ắằâ ắà êôằ - ẵằ âãơá âáơ ơáằĐ-ằằ-ắẵàúôã-ôđẵằũì
ơáằ -ơẵà đãẵằ ẳằ- ơ ạ ôụ ơáằ ãđ -áôẳ ắằ ắằơãôãẳơằãơ- ằơ-ẳẳằãêằđơáằ
ứáãạáằđữ ắà êôằũ
Stable Earnings Companies
đĐãêằ-ơđ-ụơáằđã-àãêằ-ơãạãơáằằôãơĐẵĐã-ơãằẳơơáằ
ôẵằđơãơĐ ơáằđằ ã- ắôơ ơáằ ẵĐK- ẵẵãơĐ ơ ằđ ằĐ ã ơáằ ôơôđằũ êằơáằắằ-ơ
đô ẵãằ- ẵ áêằ ằđãạ- ơáơ đằ êơãằ ẳ ôđằẳãẵơắằằđãạ-ũí-ằôằơĐụ
ãĐôẵôẳãêằ-ơãẵĐơáơá ơắằẳđằẳãẵơắằằđãạ-ụĐôẵôẳ
ằ ằơãĐẵắãằơáằắằằãơ--ơẵàâằđ-áãâãơáơáằđằãắããơĐắẳ-ũỉâ
âôẳ ẵĐ ẵáãằêằ ơáã- ằđãạ- -ơắããơĐỏ ìơ ẵôẳ ẳ - ắĐ ẳãêằđ-ãĐãạ ãơ ôơãằ
ắô-ãằ ằ-ứẵôơđãằ-ữẳắằẵãạẵạằđơằứôơãơãữồắẳơãằ-ãằ
ắô-ãằ ứẵôơđĐữâôẳơáằắằ-ằơắĐạẳơãằ-ãơáằđụằẳãạơđằ-ơắằ
ằđãạ- êằđ ơãằũ ìơ ẵôẳ ẳđâ êđãằơĐ đẳôẵơ- â êãắằããẵãđàằơ-
Pôơôđằ-ụơã-ẳơáằđẳằđãêơãêằ-Pơđơằẵơãơ-ằạã-ơãơằđằ-ơđơằụẵôđđằẵĐđ
ẵẳãơĐ đãẵằ đã-à ẳ ơáô- àằ ãơ- ằđãạ- đằđằẳãẵơắằũìãơ-ằ-ơắằãạđụ
ơáằằđãạ ơắããơĐẵắằôđằĐẵ-ằơãẵụẵđằơằẳắĐẵẵôơãạĐ-ẳ-ằãạáơ
áẳũ
StoriesfortheRiskSeeker
ìắôĐơđàằơ-ụãêằ-ơđ-ơằ-ằằàôơđã-àụáãạơàằáãạáđằơôđ-ơ
ẵằ-ơằũ ềơ -ôđđã-ãạĐụ ơáằĐ đằ ơ ãơằđằ-ơằẳ ã -ơẵà- ơáơ à ãàằắẳ-ũì-ơằẳụ
ơáằĐâơơãẳẵãằ-ơáơđêãẳằơáằắằ-ơô-ãẳằơằơãằêằơáôạáơáằĐãạáơ
ắằđã-àĐũèáằãêằ-ơằơ-ơđãằ-ơáơâđàắằ-ơđơáằđằơáằằ-ơáơằá-ãƯằđã-àụ
ắôơđằ-ằơơáằ-ẵáẵằơàằàããạứô-ãẳằđã-àữđơáằđơá-ẳạằđ
ứẳâ-ãẳằ đã-àữũ
ỡ
Great companies
ịôĐ ạẳ ẵãằ-ụ Đô đằ ơẳụ ẳơáằđằơôđ-âãâũẫáãằơáằẳằããơã
ạẳ ẵ êđĐ đ ãêằ-ơđ ơ ãêằ-ơđ ẳ đ ãêằ-ơằơ ôắãẵơã ơ ôắãẵơãụ
-ơẳằããơã-ạẳẵãằ-đằêêằđôẳãẵãĐđẳ-ơãẵà-ũíãằ-ơáơ

ằđáãạáẵẵôơãạđơằ-đằơôđẳáêằẳằâằđơáằãđ-ơẵàáẳằđ-ãơáằ-ơ
ô-ôĐôãĐũìđằẵằơĐằđ-ụằâẵơằạđĐá-ắằằẵđằơằẳâãơáạẳẳằãằẳđằ
ắđẳĐơãẵôẳằ-ẵãắằằãơ-ũòạẳẵĐâãơáơáã-ắđẳằđẳằããơãâôẳắằ
ằ ơáơ ẳằ- âằ đ ãơ ơẵàáẳằđ-ụằĐằằ-ụẵô-ơằđ-ẳ-ẵãằơĐơơáằ-ằơãằũ
èáằđơãằđãêằ-ơãạãơáằ-ằẵãằ-ã-ơáơơáằ-ôằđãđạằằơơáằ-ằ
ẵãằ- âã ãẳ âĐ- ơ ơôđ ơáđằơ- ãơ đơôãơãằ-ụ ằẳãạ ơ ẳôắằằãơ-Páãạáằđ
đằơôđ- ẳ âằđ đã-àũ
Growth Stocks
ìĐôôơĐôđằĐãơơáằẵãằ-âãơáơáằáãạáằ-ơằđãạ-ạđâơáãơáằ
đàằơụ Đô đằ Đãạ ơáằ -ằạằơ ơáằ đàằơ ơáơ ã- -ơãàằĐơáêằằăằơã
Đứđằơẳâữũẫáãằạđâơá-ơẵà-ẳơằđôẵáãơằđ-ẳãêãẳằẳ-ụ
ô-ôĐ ơđẳằ ơ áãạá ôơãằ-ằđãạ-ẳđằô-ôĐđã-àĐụđã-à-ằằàãạãêằ-ơđ-đằ
ơƯằẳắĐĐơáằ-ằẵẵằđ-ũèáằĐắôĐ-ơẵà-đđãẵằđằẵãơãđơáằđơá
ẳãêãẳằẳ-ụ ẳ ơáằãđ êãằâã-ơáơơáằáãạáằđãạ-ôơãằ-âãĐơđ-ơằãơằêằ
áãạáằđ đãẵằ- - ơáằ ằđãạ- ạđâêằđơãằũèơáằ-àằơãẵK-ôằ-ơãâáơáằ-ã
ơáằạđâơáẳằ-ơãằ-ơãơ-ằụơáằ-ằãêằ-ơđ-âãđằ-ẳơáơơáằĐáêằơáằ-àãơ
ãẵàơáằđãạáơẵãằ-Pẵãằ-ơáơáêằôẳơáằàằĐơ-ô-ơãắằụạơằđ
ạđâơáũ
Loser Stocks
ơẵà- ơáơ áêằ ằ ẳđơãẵĐ ãơáằđằẵằơ-ơằđãơằđằ-ơãạđơôãơãằ-
đãêằ-ơđ-âáđằâããạơơàằđã-àũẫáãằơáằ-ằẵãằ-ạằằđĐáêằ-ằđãô-
đắằ- P -ằ áêằ ãẵằơằơ ạằằơụ ơáằđ- áêằ ơôẵáẳằắơẳ-ơãơáằđ-
áêằẳằ-ơđơằạãẵã ơằ-Pơáằđạôằơô-ằẳơảô-ơãĐãêằ-ơãạãơáằã-ơáơơáằĐ
áêằằ-ôẵáơáơơáằĐẵơôẵáđằũẻã-à-ằằàãạãêằ-ơđ-ụâáắằãằêằ
ơáơđàằơ-áêằêằđđằẵơằẳơắẳằâ-ẳô-áằẳđãẵằ-ẳâơđụắôĐơáằ-ằ
-ơẵà- áãạ ơáơ -ơẵà đãẵằ- ắôẵằ ắẵàũ
Hidden Bargains
è ơáằ ắđạã áôơằđ-ụơáằắằ-ơ-ơẵà-ơắôĐđằơáằằ-ơáơằâơáằđãêằ-ơđ-
đằ âđằ ũ ìđàằơãàằơáằậãơằẳơơằ-ụâáằđằơáằđằđằơáô-ẳ-đằ ã
ở

ằĐạằđ-ẳĐ-ơ-ơđẵàãạ-ơẵà-ụơáã-Đ-ằằãàằơđẳằđụắôơơáằđằđằ
ơáô-ẳ--ơẵà-ã-ằđẵãằ-ơáơđằằãơáằđơđẵàằẳắĐĐ-ơ-đáằẳắĐ
ã-ơãơôơã-ũèáằđà-ơáằ-ằãạđằẳ-ơẵà-đằ-âằằẳằẵáĐằđắĐããơãôắãẵ
ằđãạ-ơáơắđãạằâãđ-ãơơáằđàằơẵằũèáằáằãẳãạơáằằăơạđằơ
ạđâơáẵĐPểãẵđ-ơđíã-ẵPắằđằĐằằ-ằẳằ-ẳđãêằ-Đđã-à
-ằằàãạãêằ-ơđ-ơđạằơáđôạáơáằ-ằ-ằđụằ âằẳ-ằạằơ-ơáằđàằơụ
àãạđĐôạẳđã-ãạẵãằ-ũìẵơụ-ằãêằ-ơđ-âãơáđằôẳ-ơ
ơáằãđ ẳã-- ơđĐ ơ ạằơ ã ằêằ ằđãằđ ã ơáằ đẵằ ắĐ ắằãạêằơôđằẵãơã-ơ-ẳđãêơằ
ằôãơĐãêằ-ơđ-ã-ụđãêơằắô-ãằ ằ-ũìơáằĐãẵàơáằđãạáơắô-ãằ ằ-ơãêằ-ơãụ
ơáằĐ ẵ ẵ-á ôơ âáằ ơáằ-ằ ắô-ãằ ằ- ằêằơôĐ ạ ôắãẵũ
StoriesfortheGreedy
ìĐã-ơãạáôêãẵằ-ụạđằằẳô-ôĐãẳ-ãơ-ằ-ằâáằđằằđơáằơũ
éáã-áằđ-ẳđãằ-ơ-áêằãêằãạáằẳạã-ơạđằằẳơáđôạáơáằạằ-ụắôơãơã--ơáằ
ôằ ơáơ ẳđãêằ- ãẵã đàằơ-ũ èáằ ẳằẳ đ -ơẵà- âôẳ ắằ ããơằẳãâđẳâáằđằ
ãêằ-ơđ- âằđằ ơạđằằẳĐđáãạáằđđằơôđ-ũềơ-ôđđã-ãạĐụơá-ằ-ằãạãêằ-ơằơ
-ơđãằ- áêằ - đằẵạãƯằẳ ơáơằêằ-ôắơằằơơáằạđằằẳãêằ-ơđ-ã ôãẵãằơ
ơ ạằơ ơáằ ãơằđằ-ơằẳũ èáằ ãêằ-ơằơ -ơđãằ- ơáơ Đ ơ ạđằằẳ -áđằ ẵ ơáằằổ ơáằĐ
â Đô ơ ắằãằêằ ơáơ Đô ẵ ạằơ -ằơáãạ đ ơáãạũ
Get on the fast track
đâơáẵãằ-ẵắằạẳãêằ-ơằơ-ãơáằạơằđắôơãơô-ôĐơàằ-
ạơãằđ-ãđơạđâãơắãạằũđãơãằơãêằ-ơđ-âáâơơáằãđ
Đâụơáằâãơẵ-ằằằẳằ ũằãđ-ẵẵằằđơằơáằạđâơáđẵằ ắĐ
ẵôãđãạơáằđẵãằ-ụãơáằãđâẳãơáằđắô-ãằ ằ-ũịĐĐãạđơáằ-ằ
ẵôã-ãơã- âãơá ằâ -ơẵà ã ôằ-ụ ơáằ-ằ ãđ- ẵ -ằằẳ ơáằ đẵằ ằêằ ôđơáằđũìêằ-ơđ-
đằơơđẵơằẳơơáằ-ằẵãằ-đơâđằ--ổèáằãđ-ơã-ơáơơáằĐđằô-ôĐơáằ
ằâ-àằđ- ã Đ đàằơồ ẵôã-ãơã- ơơđẵơ ạđằơ ẳằ đằ ơơằơãũèáằ-ằẵẳã-
ơáơ ơáằ ããơơã- ẵôã-ãơãẵẵôơãạơằàằơáằ-ằãđ-àôẵáắằơơằđơá
ơáằãđ ằằđ ạđôồ ã ẵơụ âãơá ơáằ đãạáơ ẵẵôơãạ ơđằơằơ ơáằ ạđâơáẵắằẳằơà
ẵ-ằơẵ-ơằ ũ
1

ìêằ-ơđ-Đắơá-ãẳằ-ơáằẵôã-ãơãạằụâãơá-ằắôĐãạ
ẵôã-ãơãêằ ẵãằ-ụ áãạ ơ đãẳằ ơáằãđạđâơáơáãạáĐ-ụâáằđằ-ơáằđ-ơđĐơ
1
Withpoolingaccounting,whichwaslegaluntilveryrecently,companiesthatusedstocktoacquireother
companieswerenotrequiredtoshowthecostoftheiracquisitionsintheirfinancialstatements.Instead,
theywereallowedtoshowjustthebookvalueoftheassetsoftheacquiredcompanies.
ờ
ãêằ-ơãơằơãơđạằơẵãằ-ụáãạơạã-áđằơáằđằãôãẳơáằ
ẵôã-ãơãũ
No money down, no risk, big profits
êằđĐãêằ-ơđẳđằ-ãẳãạơáằãêằ-ơằơằôãêằơđằằôẵáP
ãêằ-ơằơ âãơá đã-à ẳ áãạá đằơôđ- ứơ ằ-ơ đằơãêằ ơ âáơ Đô ẵôẳ áêằ ằđằẳ
ắ ãẳằ đã-àằ ãêằ-ơằơ ãàằ ạêằđằơắẳữụđơáằ-ằNđắãơđạằMđơôãơãằ-
ơ ằăã-ơụ Đô áêằ ơ ãẳ ơâ ãẳằơãẵ ãêằ-ơằơ- ơáơđằđãẵằẳẳãằđằơĐơơáằ-ằ
ãơãơãằắĐđàằơ-ẳạôđơằằơáơơáằđãẵằ-âãẵêằđạằêằđơãằũềơ
-ôđđã-ãạĐụơáằ-ằôđằđắãơđạằđơôãơãằ-đằđđằẳđằ-ơãàằĐơằăã-ơã
ôơôđằ-ẳơã-đàằơ-ũêằãơá-ằđàằơ-ụơáằĐđằẵẵằ ãắằĐơằâ
ãêằ-ơđ- âãơá â ơđ-ẵơã- ẵ-ơ- ẳ-ôằđãđằăằẵôơãẵắããơãằ-ũầôđằđđằ
ãàằĐơãẳằđđắãơđạằđơôãơãằ-ụâáằđằĐôáêằơâ ằơ-ơáơđằơôãơằ
ãẳằơãẵụ ơđẳãạ ơ ẳãằđằơ đãẵằ- ẳ -ằẵôơãêằ đắãơđạằụ âáãẵá ã- đằ-ằẵôơãơá
đắãơđạằũãẵằơáằđằã-ạôđơằằđãẵằẵêằđạằẵằụơáằ-ằãêằ-ơằơ-âãđằã
đã-àĐằêằơơáằ-ơ-áã-ơãẵơằẳãêằ-ơđ-ẳắằẵằằêằđã-àãằđâáằ-ãạããẵơ
đơã ơáằ ãêằ-ơằơ ẵằ- đ ắđđâãạũ
âãơá ơáằ âổ ểằơô ơđơằạãằ-
è -ằ ãêằ-ơđ-ụ â đã-à ẳ áãạá đằơôđ -ơđơằạĐ ã- ơ ắôĐ -ơẵà- ơáơ đằ ạãạ
ôẳơạạđơáằđãẳằũìãẵãơãơáã ơđơằạĐã-ơáằ ôơãơáơơáằđằã-
-ãạããẵơ ằơô ã -ơẵàđãẵằ-ổ-ơẵà-ơáơạôâãẵơãôằơạôẳ-ơẵà-
ơáơạẳââãẵơãôằơạẳâũíáđơã-ơ-ẳơằẵáãẵĐ-ơ-áêằô-ằẳẵáđơ
ơơằđ- ú ơđằẳãằ-ụ-ôđơãằ-ẳđằ-ã-ơẵằãằ-ụơằắôơơáđằằúđẳằẵẳằ-ơ
ắơá ẳằẵãáằđ ơáằ ơđằẳ ẳụ ảô-ơ - ãđơơĐụ ơ ạằơ ẳêẵằ ơãẵằ-áãơãơáằơđằẳũ

òơằđụơáằằơôơáơắđôạáơĐôđãơ-ẵêằđĐôãẵàĐơôđạã-ơĐôũì
đằẵằơĐằđ-ụằơôãêằ-ơđ-áêằ-ằăẳằẳơáằãđĐ-ã-ơãẵôẳằơđẳãạ
êôằũ ò -ơẵà ơáơ -ôđạằ- áãạáơđẳãạêôằá-ắơáđãẵằẳêôằằơô
ẳ ã- ẵ-ãẳằđằẳ ắằơơằđ ãêằ-ơằơ ơá ằ ơáơ ạằ- ô â ơđẳãạ êôằũ
StoriesfortheHopeful
ềơơằđáâđơáằãđ-ơãêằ-ơằơẵáãẵằ-áêằắằằụ-ằãêằ-ơđ ằằ
ơâããạơđạằơơáằ-ơẳơơđĐĐằơạãơãẳâĐắằơãạơáằêằđạằ
ãêằ-ơđũ đ -ằụ ơáằ áằ đ -ôẵẵằ đằ-ơ- ãẳãạ ẳ âãạơáằđãạáơãêằ-ơằơ
ằăằđơ-ụãêằ-ơãạãơáằ-ơẵà-ơáằĐãẵàũđơáằđ-ụơáằáằẵằ-đ-ơ
đằãạãô- ắằãằ ơáơ -ơẵà-âĐ-âããơáằạơằđẳơáơĐôằằẳơ-ôẵẵằằẳã-
ơãằẵằũ
ộ
Just follow the experts
èáằđằã--áđơạằằăằđơ-ụ-ằúãơằẳđơáằđâã-ằụããẵãđàằơ-ũ
èáằđằđằằôãơĐđằ-ằđẵáĐ-ơ-ụơôơãạơáằãđ-ôằđãđẵẵằ ơãđơãẳ
ạằằơụ àãạ đằẵằẳơã- âáãẵá -ơẵà-ơắôĐẳ-ằũầôáêằã-ãẳằđ-
ơ ãđ-ụ đ ẵáãằ ằăằẵôơãêằ ãẵằđ- ơ ắđẳ ằắằđ-ụ ẵơãạ - ẵáằằđằẳằđ- ã ôắãẵ ắôơ
ơằãạô-đđằắôơâáơơáằĐđằĐơáãàắôơơáằãđẵãằ-âáằơáằĐắôĐẳ
-ằ -ơẵà ã ơáằũ èáằđằ đằ ãêằ-ơằơ ằâ-ằơơằđ- ẳ ẳêã-đĐ -ằđêãẵằ-ụ ơĐơàằằ
ơđẵà ụ ằẵá ẵããạ ơ áêằ ôẳơáằ-ằẵđằơđôđạđằơ-ơẵàãẵàãạũđ-ằ
ãêằ-ơđ-ụâáđằẵô-ằẳắĐơáằẵẵáĐẵơđẳãẵơđĐêãằâ-đàằơ-ẳơáằ
êôằằâ-ắôơ-ơẵà-ụơáằ-ằằăằđơ-ằđâằẵằ-ẵằắĐơàãạơáằ
đằ--ãắããơĐ ãẵàãạ ơáằ đãạáơ -ơẵà-ũ
Stocks always win in the long term
ìơ á- -ơ ắằẵằ ẵêằơã âã-ẳ ã ơáằ ậãơằẳ ơơằ- ơáơ ơáằ -ơẵà đàằơ
ĐáêằắẳĐằđđằêằ-ơđãạắẳĐằđ-ắôơơáơ-ơẵà-âĐ-âããơáằạ
ơằđũèàằĐơằúĐằđằđãẳãđàằơáã-ơđĐụĐôâãắằơẳụẳ-ơẵà-áêằẳằ
ắằơơằđ ơá ạêằđằơắẳ-đắã-ũìĐôắôĐãơơáã-đằ-ãạẳĐôáêằạ
ơãằ áđãƯụ Đô âôẳ ôơ ĐôđằĐã-ơẵà ãẵằơáằĐâãằđđằđĐô
ơáằ đã-àĐơằđơãêằ-êằđạằđãẳ-ũẹẵôđ-ằụĐôẵôạằơĐôđđằơôđ-ã

Đô ẵ ãêằ-ơ ã -ơẵà- Đ ã ơáằạẳĐằđ-ẳêãẳơáằãơáằắẳĐằđ-ũèáằđằđằ
ẳƯằ-ãẳãẵơđ-ụđơáằâãằđơáằôằđịâơơáằằêằãơằđằ-ơđơằ-ụơáơ
ẵã ơ ơằ Đô âáằ ơ ạằơ ãơ -ơẵà- ẳ âáằơạằơôơũèáằĐơơããạđàằơ-
ẵđđằẵơĐã đạằơáơằêằđĐằâáãêằ-ơ-ãơáằ-ơẵàđàằơ-ụãẳãêãẳôđ
ã-ơãơôơãụ ơđãằ- ơ ẳ ãơ ơ ằ ãơ ã ơãằ đ ơáằ ơáằđũ
DeconstructinganInvestmentStory
êằđĐãêằ-ơằơ-ơđĐôơãằẳãơáã-ắàá-ắằằđôẳđẳằẵẳằ-ũéđơ
ơáằ đằ- ã- ơáơ ằẵá -ơđĐá-àằđằơđôơáããơũí-ãẳằđụđằăằụơáằđơãằ
đ ắôĐãạ -ơẵà- ơáơ ơđẳằ ơ â ôơãằ-ằđãạ-ũèáằĐđằđằãàằĐơắằẵáằụ
Đôâãắằơẳũèáã-àằ ằ-ằơãêằ-ơđ-ụơĐắằẵô-ằãơã-ãơôãơãêằụắôơ-
ắằẵô-ằãơã-ơằắẵàằẳôắĐằêãẳằẵằũẹêằđơáằ-ơ-ằêằẳằẵẳằ-ụđã-ơẵằụ
đơã -ơẵà-âãơáâéđơã-âôẳáêằôơằđđằẳđơã-ơẵà-âãơá
áãạáéđơã-ắĐ-ơộỷĐằđũãêằơáằẵã-ẳẵôơằđẵã-ơáơàằ
ãêằ-ơãạ - ẵô-ãạụ ãơ ã- ãđơơ ơáơ Đô ơàằ ằẵá -ơđĐ đơ ằơáẳãẵĐụ àãạơ
ắơá ãơ- -ơđạ ẳ âằà ãơ-ũ ì ơáã- -ằẵơãụ ơáằ -ơằ- ã ơáằđẵằ ơáơâãắằẳơằẳ
ã ằẵá ẵáơằđ ơ ĐƯằ ằẵá -ơđĐ âã ắằ ãẳ ôơũ
ố
I.Isolatingthekerneloftruth:TheoreticalRoots
ể-ơ ãêằ-ơằơ -ơđĐ ơằằđ- ẵã ơ áêằ ẵơằơđơáằđã-ơ-ũèáằĐắằãằêằơáơ
ơáằđĐ ã- đ ẵẳằãẵ- ẳ ơáằđ ãêđĐ ơâằđ đằ-ãẳằơ-ụ âá ẳ ơ áêằ ơ àằ ãêằ-ơằơ
ẵáãẵằ-đãêãạũèáằãđĐã-ơáơằêằđĐãêằ-ơằơ-ơđĐơáơá ôđêãêằẳãơáằạ
ơằđá-ẳằ-ắằẵô-ằãơã-ãđĐđơằẳããẵãơáằđĐũòơằđụĐôẵô-ằ
êôơã ẳằ ơ ãô-ơđơằ âáĐ -ơẵà- ơáơ ơđẳằ ơ â ôơãằ- ằđãạ- Đ ắằẵáằ
ẳ âáĐ ẵãằ- âãơá ạẳ ạằằơ -áôẳ ơđẳằ ơ ôẵá áãạáằđ êôằ-ũ
ầô âã ắằạã ắĐ ằăããạ ơáằ ơáằđằơãẵ ôẳơã- đ ằêằđĐ -ơđĐ ã ơáã- ắàũ
đã-ơẵằụãĐôđ-ằ-ãơẵáã-ơáơ-ơẵà-ơáơáêằạằôơáằ-ơãơáằ-ơđằ
đằãàằĐơẵơãôằạãạôPơáằẵ ãẵằơô-ơđĐPâáơơĐằ-
ôơã-âôẳĐôáêằơàằắôơãêằ-ơđ-ẳđàằơ-đơáã-ơáằỏ
ẫáãằơáã-Đ-ằằãàằẳãêằđ-ãụơáằđằđằơáđằằđằ--âáĐôẳằđ-ơẳãạơáằ
ôẳằđĐãạ ơáằđĐ ã- ô-ằôổ

êằãĐôơáãàơáơĐôáêằẳã-ẵêằđằẳơáằôơãơằãêằ-ơằơ-ơđơằạĐụĐô
-áôẳắằẵôđãô-ắôơâáơàằ-ơáằ-ơđơằạĐâđàũèáã-âãâĐôơ
ẳãĐ ẳ ẳảô-ơ ơáằ -ơđơằạĐ - ơáằ âđẳ ẵáạằ-ũ đ ã-ơẵằụ ã Đô ắằãằêằơáơ
-ơẵà-ằăáãắãơđãẵằằơôắằẵô-ằãêằ-ơđ-ằđ-âĐắôơằâ
ãđơãụĐôĐáêằơẳãĐơáằ-ơđơằạĐơđằằẵơơáằẵơơáơằâ-
đằẵáằ- ãêằ-ơđ- đ đằ ôãẵàĐ ơẳĐ ơá ãơ ẳãẳ ẳằẵẳằ ạ đ ằđãằđũ
ềãêằ-ơằơ-ơđơằạĐâđà-ơáằơãằũậẳằđ-ơẳãạơáằơáằđĐâãáằĐô
ẳằơằđãằơáằằđãẳ-âáằđằ-ơđơằạĐã--ơãàằĐơâđàẳâáằãơã--ơ
ãàằĐơãũìĐôêãằâ-ơẵà-âãơááãạáẳãêãẳằẳ--ơơđẵơãêằơằđơãêằơ
ắẳ-ụ đ ã-ơẵằụ ơáằơơđẵơã-áôẳạằơằêằ-ơđạằđãằđãẳ-âáằãơằđằ-ơ
đơằ- ắẳ- đằ âũ
êằđĐ-ơđơằạĐ-á-ãơ-âằà-ơ-ũịĐắằạããạâãơáơáằơáằđĐẳâđàãạ
đâđẳụĐôẵãẳằơãĐâáơĐôằằẳơâđđĐắôơ-ơ-ãêằ-ơđâãơá
ằẵá ãêằ-ơằơ -ơđĐ ẳ áâ Đô ãạáơ ắằắằơẵơđđĐôđẵẵằđ-ũđ
ã-ơẵằụ ô-ãạ êôơã ẳằ ơ ằ ơáằ đãẵằ ằđãạ- đơã âã ằẳ ĐôêằđĐ
ôãẵàĐ ơ ơáằ ơâ đãđĐẵẵằđ-ơáơĐô-áôẳáêằâáằãêằ-ơãạã-ơẵà-
âãơáâéđơã-PơáơơáằĐâãơáêằôẵáạđâơáãằđãạ-ơằđẳ
ơáơ ơáằĐ Đ ắằ êằđĐ đã-àĐũ
ì Đô ẵà ôơãơơãêằ ắằơụ đằ-ơ ôđằẳ ơáơ ơáằ ơáằđĐ ằằẳằẳ ơ ãô-ơđơằơáằãêằ-ơằơ
-ơđãằ- ã- -ãằũ
ỗ
ììũằơơãạơáằôãẵơôđằổễàãạơơáằêãẳằẵằ
èáằ -áằằđ ạãơôẳằ ẳơ ơáơ Đô áêằ êãắằ ãẵã đàằơ-ạãạắẵà
ẵằơôđĐẵắằắơáắẳắằơãêằ-ơđ-ũẹơáằằáẳụáêãạơáằẳơ
êãắằ â- Đô ơ ơằ-ơ -ơ Đãêằ-ơằơđ-ãơãơáơĐôâơơũẹơáằ
ơáằđáẳụãĐôâơằẳơô-áãơêãằâụ-ôẵá-ơáằơãơáơáãạáạđâơá
ẵãằ- đằ ắằơơằđ ãêằ-ơằơ- ơá â ạđâơá ẵãằ-ụ Đôẵãẳắẵàãạđơáã-
êãằâ ã -ằ ằđãẳ- đàằơ áã-ơđĐ ẳ âãơá -ằ -ơẵà-ũ ãêằ ơáơ -ơ ằêãẳằẵằ
ơáơã-đằ-ằơằẳđđạã-ơãêằ-ơằơ-ơđơằạãằ-ẵằ-âãơá-ằắã-ụằẵáơáằ
ẵáơằđ- ã ơáã- ắà âã ơơằơ ơ ẳ ơáằ âãạổ

ễàơơáằêãắããơĐằẵá-ơđơằạĐãơáằạơằđẵđ ơáằắđẳằ-ơẵđ
-ằẵơã -ơẵà-ổ ẻơáằđ ơá à ơ - -ôắ -ằ- -ơẵà- êằđ đắãơđđĐ ơãằ
ằđãẳ-ụ Đô âã à ơ -ơẵà- ã-ơằẳ ã ơáằ ậãơằẳ ơơằ- êằđơáằạằ-ơằđãẳ
đ âáãẵá ẳơ ã- êãắằũ èáô-ụ ơằăãằâáằơáằđ-ơẵà-ơáơơđẳằơẳã-ẵôơ
ắàêôằđằụêằđạằụạẳãêằ-ơằơ-êằđơãằụĐôâãàơơáằ
đằơôđ-ãêằ-ơđâôẳáêằằđằẳ-ơẵà-âãơáơáã-ẵáđẵơằđã-ơãẵđ
ùỗợờơơáằđằ-ằơũò-Đôâã-ằằụ-ằáãạáĐơôơằẳ-ơđơằạãằ-ẳắđằàẳâ
âáằ ơáằĐ đằ ằă-ằẳ ơ ơáã- ằêằ -ẵđôơãĐũ
ễà ơ -ôắúằđãẳ- áã-ơđĐ ơ -ằằ âáằơáằ-ơđơằạĐá ôẵẵằằẳằẳẳâáằãơ
á-ãằẳổêằđĐ-ơđơằạĐãơáã-ắàá-ạẳằđãẳ-ụâáằđằãơá-ạằằđơằẳ
-ôắ-ơơã đằơôđ- ẳắẳằđãẳ-ụâáằđằãơá-ãằẳũìĐôẳơãêằ-ơằơ
-ơđơằạĐ ắôĐãạ -ơẵà- âãơá â đãẵằằđãạ-đơã-ụĐôâããẳơáơơáằđằđằ
-ằ-ôắúằđãẳ-ãáã-ơđĐâáằđằơáã ơđơằạĐẳằ-ôẵáắằơơằđơáơáằđ-ũịĐ
ơàãạẵ-ằđàơđàằơẵẳãơã-Pãơằđằ-ơđơằ-ẳĩéạđâơáụđ
ằăằPẳôđãạơáằ-ằằđãẳ-ụĐôĐắằắằơãằơôằĐôđ-ơđơằạĐẳ
àằ ãơ đằ ằằẵơãêằũ
éôơ ơáằ đằơôđ- đ ơáằ -ơđơằạĐ ôẳằđ ãẵđ-ẵằ ơ -ằằ ã ơáằĐ ẵ ắằ ằăãằẳ
ắĐẵáẵằổơđơằạãằ-ơáơđằắôãơđôẳáẳãạ-ơẵà-ẳằãêằđêơãằđằơôđ-ụ
ắằơãạơáằđàằơắĐđạằôơ-ã-ằĐằđ-ẳôẳằđằđđãạắẳĐã
ơáằđ-ũí-ằôằơĐụĐôáêằơắằẵđằôãáâĐôđằẳơáằãđằ-ôơ-
Đôđ Đ-ã-ũ đ ã-ơẵằụ ã Đô ẳ ãẳ ơáơ -ơẵà- ã - ẵãằ- ẳằãêằđ ợỷ
đằ ã đằơôđ- ằẵá Đằđụ êằđạằụ ơá đạằđẵãằ-ụêằđơằúĐằđằđãẳụ
ãơ ã- ãắằ ơáơ ơáã- ằăơđ đằơôđ ẵ ắằằăãằẳôđằĐắĐẵáẵằũễôẵàãĐụơáằđằ
đằ -ơơã-ơãẵ ơằ-ơ- êãắằ ơáơ â Đô ơ ằ âáằơáằđ ơáã- ã- ơáằ ẵ-ằũ
ù
ò-ãơằụằêằđĐ-ơđơằạĐằăãằẳãơáã-ắàá-ắằằơằ-ơằẳắằđằắĐắơá
ẳêẵơằ- ẳ -àằơãẵ- ơáằ -ơđơằạĐũ ẫáãằ -ằ ơáằ-ằ -ơôẳãằ- đằẳơằẳụĐôẵạằơ
ôằđ ãẵơôđằ âáằơáằđ -ơđơằạĐ âđà- ắĐ àãạ ơ ơáằ-ằ ẳãằđằơ ãơ- êãằâũ
2
III.Developingaframeofreference:CrunchingtheNumbers

ìêằ-ơằơ -ơđơằạãằ- đằ ơằ ắ-ằẳ ôđôằ-ơáôắPằãạáơơãằ-ằđãạ-ã-
ẵáằụ -ơẵà ơáơ ơđẳằ- ơ é ơáơ ã- ằ ơá ãơ- ằăằẵơằẳ ạđâơá đơằ ã- ẵáằ ằơẵũPẳ
ơáằ-ằ đôằ- áêằ âãẳằ ằ ạ ãêằ-ơđ-ũ òơằđ ụ âãơá đằ ơá ộ ã-ơằẳ -ơẵà-
ơđẳằẳãơáằậãơằẳơơằ-ụãêằ-ơđ-đằẵằẳâãơáêằđâáằãạôơ
ãđơãũ ẫãơá ơáã-ãđơãêằđẳụĐđôằơáơàằ-ãằ-ãằđã-âằẵằẳũ
ẫáãằơáằđằĐắằạẳđằ--ơẳơđôằ-ơáôắâáằãêằ-ơãạụơáằđằđằẵ-ơ-
ẵãơằẳ âãơá ô-ãạ ơáằ - âằổ
ẻôằ- ơáôắ ẳằêằằẳ ã đàằơẵôãẵàĐắằẵằôơẳằẳ-đàằơẵẳãơã-
ẵáạằ đ ã ẳãằđằơ đàằơổ í-ãẳằđụ đ ã-ơẵằụ ơáằ đôằ ơáôắ ơáơ -ơẵà-ơđẳãạ
ơằ ơáằãạáơơãằ-ằđãạ-ã-ẵáằũẫáãằơáã-Đáêằẳằ-ằ-ằâáằơáằđôằ
â- ẳằêằằẳ ã ơáằ ùỗờ-ụ ắôơ á -ơẵà- ã ơáằ ậãơằẳ ơơằ- ơđẳằẳ ơ ằ ơá ố
ơãằ- ằđãạ- ã ùỗốù ứàãạ ãơ ơ -ằ ẳằããơãẵáằữẳằ ơáùỷ
-ơẵà- ẳãẳ - ã ùỗỗộ ứàãạ ãơ ơ ơãạáơ ẳằããơã ã ơáơ Đằđữũ
ẻôằ- ơáôắ đằ -ôắ-ơãơôơằ đ ơáằ âáằ ãẵơôđằổ ìêằ-ơđ- âá ô-ằ đôằ- ơáôắ-
-ôắ-ơãơôơằ đ ơáằ âáằ ãẵơôđằ ẵ -ằơãằ- ã ô-ằôẳãđơơãđơãơáơ
ơáằĐ ẵôẳ áêằ ô-ằẳ ơ ắằơơằđ ơáằãđ -ơđơằạãằ-ũ
ịôơáâẵĐôẵ-ãẳơằẳàằ-ằ-ằơáằãđơãơáơã-êãắằ-
Đẳãằđằơ-ơẵà-ỏẫãơáằẵáãêằ-ơằơ-ơđơằạĐụĐôâãắằđằ-ằơằẳâãơááâơáằ
ằ-ôđằ- ô-ằẳ ã ơáơ -ơđơằạĐ êđĐ ẵđ ơáằ đàằơ ơ ơáằơãằơáã-ắàâ-âđãơơằũđ
ã-ơẵằụ Đô âã à ơ ơáằ ẳã-ơđãắôơã ằđãạ- ạđâơá ẵđ ẵãằ- ã ơáằ ậãơằẳ
ơơằ-PáâĐẵãằ-ãơáằđàằơáêằằđãạ-ạđâơáạđằơằđơáợởỷụ
ắằơâằằ ợ ẳ ợởỷằơẵũúâáằĐôĐƯằ-ơđơằạĐắôĐãạáãạáạđâơáẵãằ-ũ
ãẵằ ơáằ-ằ êôằ- âãôẳôắơằẳĐẵáạằãơáằơá-ẳĐằđ-ơẵằụơáằôắằđ-
âã ắằ ôẳơằẳ ẳ đêãẳằẳ ơ đằẳằđ- ơáằ âằắ -ãơằ đ ơáằ ắàũ
è ạằơ ơđôằ -ằ-ằ ãêằ-ơằơ-ơđơằạĐẳâáằơáằđĐôâôẳâơơẳơ
ãơụĐô-áôẳ-ơàằàơơáằđơã-ơẵà-ơáơâôẳằằđạằđơáã-
-ơđơằạĐũẫãơáằẵá-ơđơằạĐãơáã-ắàụĐôâãẳơáã-àãạẵđ Đôđ
ãêằ-ơằơẵáãẵằ-ơơáằơãằũìĐôđ-ơđơằạĐã-ơãêằ-ơãâé-ơẵà-ụđã-ơẵằụ
2
The other studies will be referenced inthefootnotesofeachchapter.Ifyouareinterested,youcantrace

the source articles and read them.
ùù
Đô âã -ằằ ơáằ đơã ơáằ ù -ơẵà- ơáơ áẳ ơáằ âằ-ơ é đơã- ã ơáằ ậãơằẳ ơơằ-
ơ ơáằ ằẳ ợợũ èáằđằ đằ ơ ằ-ơ ơâ đằ-- đ ẳãạ ơáã-ổ
ịằĐẳ ằẵẳơ ằêãẳằẵằổ ịĐ ạãạ ắằĐẳ ơáằằẵẳơằêãẳằẵằụĐôâãạằơ
ôằđãẵơôđằắơáơáằ-ơđằạơá-ẳâằàằ ằ-ằẵá-ơđơằạĐũầôâããẳụ
đ ã-ơẵằụ ơáơ ơáằ ơĐãẵ â é -ơẵà ã- ơ ơôđằụ-ằẵĐứ-ã-ơằ
ẵãằẳ ắĐ ãơ- đằơ-ữ ắôơ -ụ đã-àĐ ẵĐ ơáơ Đô áêằằêằđáằđẳ
ắằđằũ
ẻã-àèằ-ơãạổđãêằ-ơằơ-ơđơằạĐơâđàđĐôụĐôáêằơắằ
ẵđơắằ âãơá ơáằ đơã ơáơ ằằđạằ- âãơá ơáơ -ơđơằạĐũ èáằ Đ âĐ Đôẵ
-ằằ ã ơáã- ã- ơđôằ ã- ắĐ àãạ ơ ơáằ ã-ơ -ơẵà- ơáơ âôẳ ôãĐ -ạẳ-ơẵà-
âãơá ằẵá -ơđơằạĐũ
IV.ProbingforWeaknesses:TheRestoftheStory
êằđĐ ãêằ-ơằơ -ơđĐ á- ãơ ơđạãơ-ẳãơ-âằàằ-ũẫáãằĐôẵđằ-ơ
ôđằẳ ơáơ Đô âã ắằ ạãêằ ẳằơãằẳ Đ-ã- ơáằ -ơđằạơá-ụ đằơ- ơáằ-ơđơằạĐ
-ơằêằđơàắôơãơ-âằàằ ằ-ũèô-ằãêằ-ơằơ-ơđơằạĐằằẵơãêằĐụơáôạáụ
Đô ằằẳ ơ ắằ ảô-ơ - ãđằẳ ắôơ ãơ- ããơơã- - Đô đằ ắôơ ãơ- ơằơã đã-ằũ
èâđẳ- ơáằ ằẳ ằêằđĐ ẵáơằđ ã ơáã- ắàụ ĐôâãằăãằằêằđĐơáãạơáơẵ
ơằơãĐ ạ âđạ âãơáằẵá-ơđơằạĐô-ãạơáằđơãơáơằằđạằ-đơáơ-ơđơằạĐ
-Đôđắ-ã-ũí-ãẳằđụđã-ơẵằụơáằù-ơẵà-âãơáơáằâằ-ơéđơã-ơáơâôẳ
áêằ ắằằ Đôđ đơã âãơá â é -ơđơằạĐũ ì ằ ơáằ ẵẵằđ- Đôáêằã-ơáơâ
é ẵãằ- đằ đằ đã-àĐ ơá ơáằ đằ-ơơáằđàằơụĐôẵẵđằơáằđã-àãằ
ơáằ đơã â é -ơẵà- ơ ơáằ đã-àãằ ơáằ đằ-ơơáằđàằơứẳữằăãằáâ
Đ-ơẵà-Đôâã-ằãĐôđđơããĐôâơơêãẳơáằđã-àãằ-ơ-ơẵà-ãơáằ
đàằơ ứã ơáằ ơ ôđơãằụ đ ằăằữũ
ì Đô áêằ ôơãằẵẵằđ-ắôơ-ơđơằạĐẳĐôằããơằ-ơẵà-đĐôđ
đơã-đằ-ôơằẵáẵẵằđụĐôĐêằđĐâằãẳơáơĐôđ-ằâãơáêằđĐằâ
-ơẵà-ằơãĐôđãđơãũìơáằđẵằ ụơáôạáụĐôâãằđắôơâáằđằằẵá
-ơđơằạĐ ắđằà- ẳâũ

ấũễằ -đìêằ-ơđ-
ìơáằằ ạằĐôơàằâĐđơáã-ắàã-ơáơĐôẵơ-ôẵẵằằẳâãơáĐ
ãêằ-ơằơ -ơđơằạĐụ ãơ âã áêằ ãằẳ ã ãơ- ã ãũ ẵá -ơđơằạĐ á-ơằơãđ-ôẵẵằ ụ
ã ãơ ơẵáằ- Đôđ đã-àđằằđằẵằ-ẳơãằáđãƯụẳãĐôđằẵđằôắôơáâĐô
ô-ằ ãơũ òơ ơáằ ằẳ ằêằđĐ ẵáơằđụ ơáằ ằ - ơáằ ẵáơằđ P -ãơãêằ-âằ-ằạơãêằP
âã ắằ -ôđãƯằẳ ẳ đằ-ằơằẳ - -ằđãằ- -ẵđằằ- ơáơ Đô ẵẳơơãẵđằ-ằĐôđ
ùợ
ẳẳ- -ôẵẵằ ũ í-ãẳằđụ đ ã-ơẵằụ -ơđơằạĐ ãêằ-ơãạãẵãằ-âãơáâđãẵằ
ằđãạ-đơã-ũòơằđđằ-ằơãạơáằằđã- ẵãơằẳâãơáơáã ơđơằạĐPâéđơã
ẵãằ- ẵ áêằ ô-ô-ơãắằ ằđãạ-ụ â ạđâơá ẳ áãạá đã-àPĐôâãẵ-ãẳằđ
-ằđãằ- -ẵđằằ- ơáơ Đô ẵ ô-ằ ơ ẵ-ơđôẵơ đơã âé-ơẵà-âãơá-ô-ơãắằ
ằđãạ-ụ đằ-ắằ ạđâơá ẳ ããơằẳ ằă-ôđằ ơ đã-àũ èáằđơãơáơằằđạằ-ô-ãạ
ơáằ-ằ-ẵđằằ-âãắằđằ-ằơằẳơơáằằẳằẵáẵáơằđũầô-áôẳơẵ-ãẳằđơáã-
ãêằ-ơằơ ẳêãẵằụ -ãẵằ -ơẵà đãẵằ- ẳ ôẳằơ- âã áêằ ẵáạằẳ ắĐ ơáằ ơãằĐô
đằẳ ơáã- ắàũ ì-ơằẳụ Đô -áôẳ êãằâ ơáã- - ạãạ đẵằ ơáơ Đô ẵ ô-ằơãẳ
ơáằ ắằ-ơ -ơẵà- đ Đô ã Đ đàằơ ơ Đ ãơ ã ơãằũ
íẵô-ã
ìêằ-ơằơ -ơđãằ- áêằắằằđôẳđ-ạ-Đôáêằáẳãẵãđàằơ-
ẳ ơáằĐ -áâ đằđàắằ ạằêãơĐũ èáằ -ằ-ơđãằ-đằđằẵĐẵằẳâãơáằẵáạằằđơã
ãêằ-ơđ-ẳđằ-ằơằẳ-ằâẳẳãằđằơắĐơáằãđđằơ-ũèáằ-ơđãằ-ơáơâãắằ
ằăãằẳ ã ơáằ ẵáơằđ- ơ ẵằ áêằ ắằằ ãẳ ôơ ẳẵơằạđãƯằẳắĐơáằáôằơã
ơáơàằ-ằẵáằ-ẵằãạồ-ằ-ơđãằ-ằơơáằằđôứđã-àêằđ-ằữụơáằđ-
ơáằáằôẳ-ơãơáằđơơáằạđằằẳĐũèáằđẵằ ơáơâãắằô-ằẳãằẵáẵáơằđơ
ằăãằ ằẵá ơáằãêằ-ơằơ-ơđãằ-ã--ãẳôơụ-ơđơãạâãơáơáằ-ơđĐụâằẳắĐ
ơáằ ơáằđằơãẵ ôẳơã- ẳ ơáằ ằêãẳằẵằ ãơ- ằằẵơãêằằ ứđ ẵà ơáằđằữ ẳ ẵ-ãạ
âãơá ãơ- ơằơã âằàằ ằ- ứẳ âĐ- đơằẵơãạ Đôđ-ằ ạã-ơ ơáằữũ
ùớ
CHAPTER2
ỉìỉ ĩìấìĩềĩ èẹíếổ ịẹềĩ ẫìèỉ éẻìí òééẻíìòèìẹềỏ
K-ễ-ơĩãêãẳằẳ-

ẹẵằ ô ơãằụ ơáằđằ ãêằẳáĐẳẵđằđằằđằơãđằằằẳũâ-ã
ạẳáằơáẳơáđôạáĐằảĐằẳáêãạơáãạơẳũỉã-Đđằạđằơâ-ơáơáã-
áđẳúằđằẳ ằĐ â- ãêằ-ơằẳ ã ơđằ-ôđĐ ắẳ-ụ ằđãạ ằ-Đ đơằ ớỷ Đằđũẹằ
ẳĐụ K- đãằẳụ ệằụ âá ãàằẳ ơ ằđ ô-ãẵãơằẳ ãêằ-ơằơ ẳêãẵằụ-ôạạằ-ơằẳơáơ
ơàằ áã- ằĐ ôơ ắẳ- ẳ ãêằ-ơ ã-ơẵà-ũẫáằẳằôđđằẳụ-Đãạơáơáằẳãẳ
ơ ãàằ ơ ơàằ đã-à ẳ ơáơ áằ ằằẳằẳ ơáằ ẵ-á ãẵằđáã-ắẳ-ụệằạêằáãã-ơ
ù ẵãằ- ơáơ ãẳáãạáẳãêãẳằẳ-ũNịôĐơáằ-ằ-ơẵà-Mụáằ-ãẳụNẳĐôâãạằơ
ơáằ ắằ-ơ ắơá âđẳ- P ơáằ ãẵằ ắẳ ẳ ơáằ ô-ãẳằ ơằơã -ơẵà-Mũ ẳãẳ
- ẳ â- đằâđẳằẳ đ âáãằ âãơá đơã -ơẵà- ơáơẳằãêằđằẳẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳ
ởỷụ ằêãạ áã áĐ ằđ-ũ
ịđằĐĐằđơằđụơđôắằ ơđơằẳâáằẳãẳơđằẵằãêằơáằẳãêãẳằẳẵáằẵà
đ ằ áã- ẵãằ-ũ ẫáằ áằ ẵằẳ ơáằ ẵĐụ áằ â- ơẳ ơáơ ơáằĐ áẳ đô ãơ
ãẵãơđôắằẳâằđằ-ô-ằẳãạẳãêãẳằẳĐằơ-ũụơáã ôđđã-ằụôẳôơ
ơáơ ằêằ ẵãằ- ơáơ áêằ ãẳ ẳãêãẳằẳ- đ ẳằẵẳằ- đằ ơ ằạĐ ắãạơằẳ ơ àằằ
Đãạ ơáằũ -ôẳơáơôđơáằẵãằ-ãáã-đơãẵằẳơáằ-ằêằ-
đằ ằ-ơơằ ãêằ-ơằơ ơđô-ơ-ụ ơáôạá áằ â- ơ ôãơằ -ôđằ âáơơáằĐẳãẳỉằôẳôơ-
ằôạáâáằơáằằơãđằđằãêằ-ơằơơđô-ơ-ằẵơđẳđằẳớỷãơáằẵôđ-ằâằằàụ
ôãạẳâơáằêôằáã-đơãũểôẵá-áằơđãằẳơơằáã-ằơáơãơâ-Đ
ằđ ẳơáơáằẵôẳẵơãôằơđằẵằãêằẳãêãẳằẳ-ụáằằơôẵđơắằâãơáơáằ
àâằẳạằơáơáằáẳằ êãạ-âơáâáằáằ-ơđơằẳâãơááã-đơãũãĐụ
- ơãẵằẳ ơáơ ơáằ đằããạ -ãă -ơẵà- ã áã-đơãđằđơằẳãơơằđằđãạ-
ạđâơáđằđãẳơằđãẳũịĐơáằằẳơáằơáãđẳĐằđụáã-đơãáẳẳđằẳã
êôằ ẳ ơáằ ẳãêãẳằẳ Đãằẳáẳẳằẵãằẳơợũởỷũíá-ơằằẳắĐáã- ằ-ụ-ẳáã-
-ơẵà- ẳ ôơ áã- ằĐ ắẵà ãơ ắẳ-ũ òẳ áằ ằêằđ ã-ơằằẳ ơ ệằ ạãũ
ểđ ơáằ -ơđĐổ ỉãạá ẳãêãẳằẳ- ẳ ơ ắẳ àằũ
ì Đô đằ ãêằ-ơđ âá ắáđ- đã-àụ Đô đắắĐ đằằđ ơãêằ-ơĐôđằĐã
ơđằ-ôđĐắẳ-đ-ằẵđđơằắẳ-ụđơáằđơá-ơẵà-ụắằẵô-ằắẳ-ằđ
ạôđơằằẳ ãẵằ -ơđằ ã ơáằ đ ẵô-ũèáằơđẳằã-ơáơắẳ-áêằããơằẳ
ơằơã đ đãẵằ đằẵãơãũ ò ắẳK- đãẵằ Đãẵđằ-ằụ-ãơằđằ-ơđơằ-ạẳâụắôơ
-ơ ơáằ ằĐ Đô àằ Đôđ ãêằ-ơằơ ô-ơẵằđơáằẵô-Đôđằẵằãêằ

êằđ ơáằ ắẳK- ãằũ ềơâãơá-ơẳãạ Đôđ êằđ-ã ơ đã-àụ Đô Đ-ằơãằ-ắằãẳôẵằẳ
ùỡ
ơãêằ-ơã-ơẵà-ắĐâáơ-ằằ-ãàằôắằơắằẵắãơãP-ơẵàơáơẳằãêằđ-
ẳãêãẳằẳ-ơáơđằẵđắằơơáằẵô-ắẳ-âãơáơáằ ãắããơĐđãẵằ
đằẵãơãũìơáã-ẵáơằđụĐôâãẵ-ãẳằđâáĐ-ằ-ơẵà-Đáãạáẳãêãẳằẳ-ụ
âáằơáằđ-ôẵáẳãêãẳằẳ-ẵắằẵđằẳơáằẵô-ãẳắẳ-ẳơáằẳạằđ-ơáơ
ẵ -ằơãằ- ôđà ã ơáằ-ằ -ơẵà-ũ
èáằẵđằơáằ-ơđĐ
ẫáằĐôắôĐ-ơẵàụĐôđơằơãđằơôđẵằ-đơâ-ôđẵằ-ũèáằãđ-ơã-
ơáằ ẳãêãẳằẳ ơáơ Đô ằăằẵơ ơáằ -ơẵà ơ Đ êằđ ơãằẳơáằ-ằẵẳã-ơáằằăằẵơằẳđãẵằ
đằẵãơãĐô-ằằãơáằ-ơẵàũèáằẳãêãẳằẳ-Đôâãđằẵằãêằđãêằ-ơãạã-ơẵà-
âã ạằằđĐ ắằ âằđ ơá âáơ Đô âôẳ áêằ ằđằẳ - ẵô- ã Đô áẳãêằ-ơằẳơáằ
-ằ ôơ ã ắẳ- ẳ ơáã- -ằơ- ô ơáằ ẵ ãẵ ơđẳằ ắằơâằằắẳ-ẳ-ơẵà-ũầô
ằđôẵááãạáằđẵôđđằơãẵằắẳắôơĐôđơằơãđđãẵằđằẵãơãã-
ôẵáạđằơằđâãơáằôãơĐũịẳ-đằằ đã-àĐắôơằôãơãằ-ằđáãạáằđằăằẵơằẳđằơôđ-ũ
ịôơ âáơ ã Đô ẵôẳ ãẳ -ơẵà- ơáơ ẳằãêằđẳãêãẳằẳ-ơáơđằẵđắằơơáằẵô-
ãẳắẳ-ỏèáằđằđằơâẳãằđằơđạôằơ-ẳằắĐơá-ằâáắằãằêằơáơ-ôẵá
-ơẵà- đằ ạẳ ãêằ-ơằơ-ũ
èáằ ẹơãã-ơ éãơẵáổ Nầô áêằ ơáằ ịằ-ơ ịơá ẫđẳ-Mổ ì ơáã- ãơẵáụĐôđằơẳ
ơáơĐôẵạằơơáằắằ-ơắơáắẳẳằôãơĐãêằ-ơằơ-âáằĐôắôĐáãạá
ẳãêãẳằẳ -ơẵà-ũ ôđãƯãạ ơáằ ãơẵáổ èáằ-ằ đằ -ơẵà- ơáơ ẳằãêằđ ẳãêãẳằẳ-ơáơ
đằẵđắằẳụã-ằẵ-ằ-ụáãạáằđơáẵô-ắẳ-ũịôĐơáằ-ằ
-ơẵà- ẳ Đô ẵ ẵôơđằẵằãêãạơáằẳãêãẳằẳ-đơáằạơằđũìơáằ-ơẵà
đãẵằ ạằ- ôụ ãơ ã- ẳẳằẳ ắô-ũ ìãơẳằ-ơụĐô-ơãằđđằãẳãêãẳằẳ-
ơá Đô âôẳ áêằ ằđằẳ ắĐ ãêằ-ơãạ ã ắẳ-ũ ì ẵơụ ơáã- -ơđĐ ã-ắ-ơằđằẳắĐ
ơáằ ẵơ ơáơ Đ -ơẵà-ơáơĐáãạáẳãêãẳằẳ-đằ-ằđụđạằđẵãằ-âáằđằ
ơáằ ơằơã đã-à ã- âũ
èáằéằ ãã-ơéãơẵáổNĩằằ-ãêằìêằ-ơằơ-Mổèáã-ã-ơáằãơẵáơáơạã-
đằ-ẵằ ã ắằđ đàằơ-ũ ì ằêãđằơ âáằđằ ãêằ-ơđ- áêằ-ằằơáằãđằôãơĐ
đơã-âãơáằđ-ơáằ-ơẵàđàằơẳằẵãằ-ụ-ơẵà-ơáơĐáãạáẳãêãẳằẳ-ằđ

-ẵằũôđãƯãạơáã-đạôằơổ êằơáôạáơáằ-ằ-ơẵà-Đ-ằêôằãàằ
ơáằđ -ơẵà-ụ ãêằ-ơđ- áẳãạ ơ ơáằ ẵ -ơã ẵôơ đằẵằãêãạ ơáằ ẳãêãẳằẳ-ũ
ì ẵơụ ẳôđãạ ẵđã-ằ-ụ ơáằđằ ã- ạằằđ ãạáơ ơ -ằơĐ ơáơ ẵẵôđ- ẵđ đàằơ-ũ
ẫáãằ ãơ ãằ-ơ- ãơ-ằ ãằẳãơằĐ - -áãơđ-ơẵà-ơạêằđằơắẳ-ụãơ
--áâ-ôâãơáãằôãơĐđàằơ--ãêằ-ơđ áãơđáãạáằđđã-à-ơẵà-
ứơằáãạáạđâơáẵãằ-ơáơĐđãơơằẳãêãẳằẳ-ữơâđã-à-ơẵà-
ứơằ -ơắằ ẵãằ- ơáơ Đ áãạá ẳãêãẳằẳ-ữũ
ùở
èáằ-ằ -ằ- ãơẵáằ- áêằ ơáằ -ơ ằơãêằ-ơđ-âáđằơĐđã-àêằđ-ằắôơ-
ẵôơ ơáằãđ đơã- ơ ẳằãêằđ -ơằẳĐ -ơđằ ãẵằũ ìơ -áôẳ ẵằ --ôđđã-ằ
ơáơ ẳằđ ãêằ-ơđ-ụ ơằ đằơãđằẳụ đằ ơáằ -ơ đằẵằơãêằ ôẳãằẵằũ
èáằèáằđĐổĩãêãẳằẳ-ẳấôằ
í Đãạ đằ ã ẳãêãẳằẳ- àằ ẵĐđằơơđẵơãêằãêằ-ơằơỏèáằđằ
ã--ôđđã-ãạẳằạđằằẳã-ạđằằằơắôơơáằ-âằđơơáã-ôằ-ơããẵđđơằ
ãẵã ơáằđĐũ ẹằơáằ-ơâãẳằĐẵãđẵôơằẳđ-ãơã-ãẵđđơằãẵằPơáằ
ểãằđúểẳãạããơáằđằP-ơơằ-ơáơẳãêãẳằẳ-đằằôơđẳẵơằẵơđằơôđ-ũ
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ỉâụ Đô ãạáơâẳằđụã-ơáã- ãắằỏẫáằẵĐĐ-đằãẳãêãẳằẳ-ằêằđĐ
Đằđụ -Đ ỡỷ ơáằ-ơẵàđãẵằđơáằđơáơáằợỷãơĐ-ẵôđđằơĐụẳằ-ơáơơãẵđằ-ằ
ơáằơơđằơôđỏềơãểãằđúểẳãạããâđẳũìơáã-âđẳụơáằằăằẵơằẳđãẵằ
đằẵãơãơáã ơẵàâãẳđắĐằăẵơĐơáằ-ằôơ-ơáằẳãêãẳằẳãẵđằ-ằụ
-Đ đ ùỷ ơ ốỷụ ằêãạ Đô âãơá ơơ đằơôđùợỷũẫáãằơáằđằđằãôằđô-
ẳáằđằơ- ơ ơáã- êãằâụ ơáằđằ đằơáằđã-ơ-âáẳã-ạđằằắĐơãạơáơãđĐ-ãạãơ-
ẵãẳằẵằããơ-ôơôđằằđãạ-ắĐãẵđằ-ãạẳãêãẳằẳ-ũòẵẵđẳãạĐụ-ơẵàđãẵằ-âã
ãẵđằ-ằâáằẳãêãẳằẳ-đằãẵđằ-ằẳẳẳđâáằẳãêãẳằẳ-đằẵôơũèẵằơằơáằ
ẳã-ẵô ãụơáằđằđằ-ơãơáằđ-âáđạôằơáơẳãêãẳằẳ-ằă-ằãêằ-ơđ-ơáãạáằđơăằ-
ẳơáô áôẳđằẳôẵằêôằũèáô-ụẳãêãẳằẳ-ẵãẵđằ-ằụẳằẵđằ-ằđáêằằằẵơ
êôằụ ẳằằẳãạ ô âáãẵá ơáằ-ằ ơáđằằ đạôằơ- Đô -ôắ-ẵđãắằ ơũ
ĩãêãẳằẳ-ẳơơơằđổèáằểãằđểẳãạããèáằđằ
èáằắ-ã-ơáằđạôằơơáơẳãêãẳằẳ-ẳKơơơằđã ãằũãđ-ơáơĐ

đằẳãêãẳằẳ-âãằđằ đãẵằđằẵãơãẳẳằãêằđơáằ-ằơơđằơôđơ
-ơẵàáẳằđ-ũèáã-ã-ắằẵô-ằãđK-êôằẵằ-đơáằãêằ-ơằơ-ãơàằ-Pơụ
ằôãằơ ẳ ơáằđ đằ ằơ-ụ đ ằăằ P ẳ âáằơáằđ ơáằ-ằ ãêằ-ơằơ- ẳằãêằđ áãạá
đâđằơôđ-ũìãđơáơĐ-đằãẳãêãẳằẳ-ẵã ôằằâ-áđằ-ãơáằđàằơụ
đã-ằ ằôãơĐ ẳ ơàằ ằăẵơĐ ơáằ -ằ ãêằ-ơằơ- ãơ âôẳáêằẳằããơáẳơãẳơáằ
ẳãêãẳằẳụ ãơ- êằđ êôằ -áôẳ ắằ ôằẵơằẳ ắĐ ãơ-ẳãêãẳằẳãẵĐũòơằđụơáằ ằơ-ãơ
â- ẳ ơáằ ằđãạ- ãơ ạằằđơằ- đằ ơáằ -ằ âáằơáằđ ãơ Đ- đạằ ẳãêãẳằẳ đ ơũ
ầôụ - ãêằ-ơđụ âã - ằằẳơắằãẳãằđằơắằơâằằđằẵằãêãạẳãêãẳằẳ-ẳ
ẵãơạã-đơáã-đ-ãơãơáẳũòơằđụãĐôđằơăằẳơáãạáằđđơằ
ẳãêãẳằẳ-ơáẵãơạã-ụĐôâãắằằ áĐâãơáơáằáãạáằđẳãêãẳằẳ-ụằêằ
1
Miller,M.andF.Modigliani,1961, DividendPolicy,GrowthandtheValuationofShares,Journalof
Business,411-433.
ùờ
ơáôạáĐôđơơđằơôđ-âãắằơáằ-ằụ-ãĐắằẵô-ằĐôâãáêằơĐđằã
ơăằ-ũđẳãêãẳằẳ-ơơơơằđụĐôằãơáằđáêằơơăằ-đĐơáằ-ằơăằ-
ẳãêãẳằẳ- ẳ ẵãơ ạã-ũ
èáằ ôơã-ằằẳằẳơđđãêằơơáằđ-ãơãơáơẳãêãẳằẳ-ẳơằẵơ
êôằ Đ -ằằ - đằ-ơđãẵơãêằ ơáơ Đô âã ắằ ơằơằẳơđằảằẵơãơâãơáôơơằ-ơãạãơồơằđụ
ãơã-ơẵ-ơằ ơã ôằằâ-ơẵàẳẳãêãẳằẳ-ẳẵãơạã-áêằáã-ơđãẵĐơ
ắằằơăằẳơơáằ-ằđơằũèáơâôẳắằã-ơàằụáâằêằđụắằẵô-ằơáằơáằđĐẳằ-
ẵơã êôắằ ằ ạằ đ ãêằ-ơđ-ổ ò ãđ ơáơ ãêằ-ơ- ã đ đảằẵơ- ơáơ àằ -ôắú
-ơẳđẳ đằơôđ- ẵơ áằ ơ ãẵđằ-ằ ãơ- êôằ ơ ãêằ-ơđ- ắĐ ảô-ơ ằđãạ ơáằáãạáằđ
ẳãêãẳằẳ-ũ òơằđơãêằĐụ ãđ âãơá ạđằơ ãêằ-ơằơ- Đ ắằ ắằ ơ -ô-ơããơ-êôằằêằ
ã ãơ ẳằ- ơ Đ Đ ẳãêãẳằẳ-ũ
ĩãêãẳằẳ-đằắẳổèáằèăòđạôằơ
ĩãêãẳằẳ- áêằ áã-ơđãẵĐ ắằằơđằơằẳằ êđắĐơáẵãơạã-ắĐơáằơă
ôơáđãơãằ- ã ơáằ ậãơằẳ ơơằ-ũ đ ôẵá ơáằ -ơ ẵằơôđĐụ ẳãêãẳằẳ- áêằắằằơđằơằẳ-
đẳãđĐãẵằẳơăằẳơđơằ-ôẵááãạáằđơáđãẵằđằẵãơãụâáãẵáá-ắằằ
ơđằơằẳẳơăằẳ-ẵãơạã-ũí-ằôằơĐụẳãêãẳằẳĐằơ-ẵđằơằơă

ẳã-ẳêơạằđãêằ-ơđ-ẳ-áôẳđằẳôẵằơáằđằơôđ-ơ-ơẵàáẳằđ-ơằđằđ-
ơăằ-ũ ơẵàáẳằđ- -áôẳ đằ-ẳ ắĐ đằẳôẵãạ ơáằ -ơẵàđãẵằ-ơáằãđ-àãạơáằ-ằ
Đằơ-ụ đằơãêằ ơ ãđ- ơáơ ẳ ơ Đ ẳãêãẳằẳ-ũ ì ơáã- -ẵằđãụ ãđ- âã ắằ ắằơơằđ
ằãơáằđ đằơããạ ơáằ ằĐ ơáằĐ âôẳ áêằ ãẳ ôơ - ẳãêãẳằẳ- đ đằôđẵá-ãạ -ơẵàũ
èáằẳôắằơăơãẳãêãẳằẳ-PPẵằơơáằẵđđơằằêằẳẵằơơáằ
ãêằ-ơđằêằPPá-ơắằằẳẳđằ ằẳẳãđằẵơĐãậũũơăâôơãêằđĐđằẵằơĐ
2
ụắôơãơ
á-ắằằẳằơâãơáãơáằđẵôơđãằ-ãẵôằâĐ-ũì-ằẵôơđãằ-ụãàằịđãơãụ
ãẳãêãẳô ãêằ-ơđ- đằ âằẳ ơă ẵđằẳãơđơáằẵđđơằơăằ-ãẳẵ-áâ-ãẳ
ơ ơáằ - ẳãêãẳằẳ-ũ ì ơáằđ ẵôơđãằ-ụ ãàằằđĐụơáằđơãơáằằđãạ-ãẳôơ
- ẳãêãẳằẳ- đằ ơăằẳ ơ âằđ đơằ ơá ơáằ đơã đằãêằ-ơằẳ ắẵà ãơ ơáằ ãđũ
ĩãêãẳằẳ-đằạẳổèáằíãằơằằẳãạãạơđãằ-
ềơâãơá-ơẳãạ ơáằ ơă ẳã-ẳêơạằ-ụ Đ ãđ- ẵơãôằơĐẳãêãẳằẳ-ẳ
ãêằ-ơđ- ã ơáằ-ằ ãđ- ơĐãẵĐ êãằâ-ôẵáĐằơ-êđắĐũèáằđằđằ-ằẵẳằãẵ-
ẳ đẵơãơãằđ- âá đạôằ ơáơ ẳãêãẳằẳ- đằ ạẳ ẳ ẵ ãẵđằ-ằ ãđ êôằẳđêãẳằ
ơ ằ-ơ ơáđằằ đằ--ũ
2
Inearly2003,PresidentBushpresentedtaxreformthatessentiallyexemptedalldividendsfrompersonal
taxes.Afternegotiations,acompromisebillwasultimatelypassedinMay2003reducingthetaxrateon
dividendsto15%-thesameratethatcapitalgainswillbetaxedat.
ùộ
ằãêằ-ơđ-ãàằẳãêãẳằẳ-ũèáằ-ằãêằ-ơđ-ĐơắằĐãạôẵáãơăằ-ẳ
ẵ-ằôằơĐ ẳ ơ ẵđằ ắôơ ơáằơăẳã-ẳêơạằ ẵãơằẳâãơáẳãêãẳằẳ-ũẹđơáằĐ
ãạáơằằẳẳêôằơáằẵ-áâạằằđơằẳắĐơáằẳãêãẳằẳĐằơũẫáĐẳơáằĐ
ơ-ằ-ơẵàơđã-ằơáằẵ-áơáằĐằằẳỏèáằơđ-ẵơã-ẵ-ơ-ẳơáằẳããẵôơĐ
ắđằàãạ ô - áẳãạ-
3
ẳ -ằãạ ôãơ -áđằ- Đàằ-ằãạ-ôơ-
-ơẵà ãằ-ãắằũ ãêằ ơáằ ê-ơ ẳãêằđ-ãơĐ ãẳãêãẳô ẳ ã-ơãơôơã ãêằ-ơđ- ã ơáằ

đàằơụ ãơ ã- ơ -ôđđã-ãạ ơáơụ êằđ ơãằụ -ơẵàáẳằđ-ơằẳơãêằ-ơããđ-âá-ằ
ẳãêãẳằẳ ãẵãằ- ơẵá ơáằãđ đằằđằẵằ-ũ ơẵàáẳằđ- ã áãạá ơăắđẵàằơ-âáẳơ
ằằẳ ơáằ ẵ-á â đ ẳãêãẳằẳ Đằơ- ơằẳ ơãêằ-ơãẵãằ-ơáơĐâđ
ẳãêãẳằẳ-ũịĐẵơđ-ơụ-ơẵàáẳằđ-ãâơăắđẵàằơ-âáằằẳơáằẵ-áđ
ẳãêãẳằẳ Đằơ- âã ô-ôĐ ãêằ-ơ ã ẵãằ- âãơá áãạáẳãêãẳằẳ-ũèáã-ẵô-ơằđãạ
-ơẵàáẳằđ-ãẵãằ-âãơáẳãêãẳằẳãẵãằ-ơáơơẵáơáằãđđằằđằẵằ-ã-
ẵằẳ ơáằ ẵãằơằằ ằằẵơ ẳ ĐằăãâáĐ-ằẵãằ-ơĐĐẳãêãẳằẳ-
ắôơ ãẵđằ-ằ ơáằ êằđ ơãằũ
ểđàằơ- êãằâ ẳãêãẳằẳ- - -ãạ-ổ ãẵã đàằơ- ằăãằ ằêằđĐẵơããđơàằ-
đããẵơã-đơáằôơôđằũẫáằãđ-ôẵằẵáạằ-ãẳãêãẳằẳãẵĐụơáằĐ
đằẵêằĐãạãđơãơđàằơ-ụâáằơáằđơáằĐãơằẳơđơũịĐãẵđằ-ãạ
ẳãêãẳằẳ-ụ ãđ- ẵãơ ơ Đãạ ơáằ-ằ ẳãêãẳằẳ- ã ơáằ ạ ơằđũèáằãđâããạằ ơ
àằ ơáã- ẵãơằơ ãẳãẵơằ- ơ ãêằ-ơđ- ơáơ ơáằĐ ắằãằêằ ơáằĐ áêằ ơáằ ẵẵãơĐ ơ
ạằằđơằơáằ-ằẵ-áâ-ãơáằạơằđũèáã--ãơãêằ-ãạ-áôẳơáằđằđằằẳ
ãêằ-ơđ-ơãẵđằ-ằơáằ-ơẵàđãẵằũĩằẵđằ-ãạẳãêãẳằẳ-ã-ằạơãêằ-ãạụđạằĐ
ắằẵô-ằ ãđ- đằ đằôẵơơ ơ ẵôơ ẳãêãẳằẳ-ũ èáô-ụ âáằ ãđ ơàằ- ơáã- ẵơãụđàằơ-
-ằằãơ-ãẳãẵơãơáơơáã-ãđã-ã-ôắ-ơơãẳạúơằđãẵãơđôắằũ
í-ằôằơĐụ -ôẵá ẵơã- ằẳ ơ ẳđ ã -ơẵà đãẵằ-ũ
ằ ạằđ- ẵơ ắằ ơđô-ơằẳ âãơá ẵ-áổ ềơ ẵãằ-áêằạẳãêằ-ơằơ-
ẳ ẵằơằơ ạằằơũ ì ãđK- ãêằ-ơằơ đ-ằẵơ- đằđẳãơ-ạằđ-
đằ ơ êãằâằẳ - ẵđằô ẵô-ơẳã- -ơẵàáẳằđ âằơáụ Đãạẳãêãẳằẳ-âãđằẳôẵằ
ơáằ ẵ-á ã ơáằ ãđ ẳ ơáô- ơáằ ãàằãáẳ â-ơằô ãêằ-ơằơ-ũ
ễàãạơơáằêãẳằẵằ
ẹêằđ ơáằ -ơ ằâ ẳằẵẳằ-ụ đằ-ằđẵáằđ- áêằ ằăđằẳ âáằơáằđ ắôĐãạ -ơẵà-ắ-ằẳ
ôơáằãđẳãêãẳằẳĐằơ-ã-ạẳ-ơđơằạĐũằơáằ-ằ-ơôẳãằ-àơơáằắđẳ
3
Considerastockholderwhoowns100sharestradingat$20pershare,onwhichshereceivesadividend
of$0.50pershare.Ifthefirmdidnotpayadividend,thestockholderwouldhavetosell2.5sharesof
stocktoraisethe$5thatwouldhavecomefromthedividend.
ùố

ôằ-ơãâáằơáằđ-ơẵà-âãơááãạáằđẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳ-ẳằãêằđáãạáằđơơđằơôđ-ũìơáằ
ẳãêãẳằẳ-ơđĐáẳ-ôụĐôâôẳằăằẵơ-ơẵà-âãơááãạáẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳ-ơ-ằđ
áãạá đằơôđ-ũ ẹơáằđ- ơàằ đằ ẵô-ằẳ đẵá àãạ ơ Đ ơá-ằ -ơẵà-ơáơáêằ
ơáằ áãạáằ-ơ ẳãêãẳằẳ Đãằẳ-ũ ẹằ ằăằ ã-ơáằĩâĩạ ơđơằạĐụâáằđằĐôắôĐơáằù
-ơẵà- ã ơáằ ĩâ ớ ơáơ áêằơáằáãạáằ-ơẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳ-ũìđằẵằơĐằđ-ụơáãđẳ-ơđơằạĐ
ắôĐãạ-ơẵà-ơáơáêằơáằắãạạằ-ơãẵđằ-ằ-ãẳãêãẳằẳ-ứđơáằđơáơáằáãạáằ-ơ
ẳãêãẳằẳ-ữ á- - ắằằ ơằ-ơằẳũ ì ơáã ằẵơãụơáằằãđãẵằêãẳằẵằơáơá-ẵẵôôơằẳ
ơáằ-ằ đơ- âã ắằ đằ-ằơằẳũ
ĩáãạáằđĐãằẳ-ơẵà-ằđáãạáằđđằơôđ-ỏ
èáằẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳã-ô-ôĐẵôơằẳắĐẳãêãẳãạơáằẳãêãẳằẳ-ằđ-áđằắĐơáằ
ẵôđđằơ -ơẵà đãẵằũ èáô-ụ ãơ ã- ẳằãằẳ ơ ắằú
ĩãêãẳằẳ Đãằẳ ó òô ẳãêãẳằẳ- ằđ -áđằ ủ íôđđằơ ơẵà đãẵằ
ỉâằêằđụ ơáằđằ đằ êđãơã- ã áâ ơáằ ô ẳãêãẳằẳ- ằđ -áđằ đằ ẵôơằẳụ ằẳãạ ơ
ẳãằđằơ ằ-ơãơằ- ơáằ ẳãêãẳằẳ Đãằẳ đ ơáằ -ằ -ơẵàũằô-ằơáằẳãêãẳằẳ-ãẳã
ơáằ-ơãẵãĐằđụơáằđ-ô-ằẳãêãẳằẳ-ãẳêằđơáằ-ơôđôđơằđ-ẳơáằđằđằ
-ằ âá ô-ằ ằăằẵơằẳ ẳãêãẳằẳ- ằđ -áđằ êằđ ơáằ ằăơ ãẵã Đằđũìáãạáằđẳãêãẳằẳ-
àằ -ơẵà- đằ ơơđẵơãêằ ãêằ-ơằơ-ụ -ơẵà- âãơá áãạáằđ ẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳ áôẳạằằđơằ
áãạáằđ đằơôđ- ơá -ơẵà- âãơá âằđ ẳãêãẳằẳ Đãằẳ-ũ
ẹêằđơáằ-ơôđẳằẵẳằ-ụđằ-ằđẵáằđ-áêằơđãằẳơằăãằâáằơáằđáãạáằđ
ẳãêãẳằẳ Đãằẳ -ơẵà- đằ -ôằđãđ ãêằ-ơằơ-ũ èáằ -ãằ-ơ âĐ ơ ơằ-ơ ơáã- áĐơáằ-ã- ã- ơ
ẵđằơằđơã--ơẵà-ắ-ằẳôơáằãđẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳ-ẳằăãằđằơôđ-ơáằ-ằ
đơã- êằđ ạ ằđãẳ-ũ ì ãạôđằ ợũùụ ơáằêằđạằôđằơôđ-Pơáằ-ằãẵôẳằđãẵằ
đằẵãơãẳẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳ-Pđằẵôơằẳơằđơã-ẵđằơằẳắ-ằẳô
ẳãêãẳằẳ Đãằẳ- ơ ơáằ ắằạããạ ằêằđĐ Đằđ đ ùỗởợ ẳ ợùũ ễàãạ ơ-ôắúằđãẳ-ụ
ơáằ áãạáằ-ơ ẳãêãẳằẳ Đãằẳ đơã ằđằẳ ô đằơôđ ắôơ ùờỷ ắằơâằằ ùỗởợ ẳ
ùỗộùụắôơớỷđằơáơáằđằơôđ-ơáằâằ-ơẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳđơãũĩôđãạơáã-
ằđãẳụơáằâằ-ơđằơôđ-âằđằằđằẳắĐơáằãđ-ãơáằãơằđằẳãơằẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳ
ẵ ằ-ũịằơâằằùỗộùẳùỗỗụơáằâằ-ơẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳ-ơẵà-ằđằẳáãạáằđô
đằơôđ ơá ơáằ áãạáằ-ơ ẳãêãẳằẳ Đãằẳ-ơẵà-ũịằơâằằùỗỗùẳợùụơáằẳêơạằ-áãơ-
ắẵàơáãạáằđẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳ-ơẵà-ũẹêằđơáằằơãđằằđãẳụáãạáằđẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳ-ơẵà-

ạằằđơằ -ãạáơĐ áãạáằđ ô đằơôđ ơá âằđ ẳãêãẳằẳ Đãằẳ -ơẵà-ũ
ùỗ
ỉãạáằ-ơ
ợ
ớ
ỡ
ở
ờ
ộ
ố
ỗ
ễâằ-ơ
ùỗởợúộù
ùỗộùúỗ
ùỗỗùúợù
ũỷ
ợũỷ
ỡũỷ
ờũỷ
ốũỷ
ùũỷ
ùợũỷ
ùỡũỷ
ùờũỷ
ùốũỷ
ợũỷ
ĩãêãẳằẳ ầãằẳ í
ãạôđằ ợũùổ ẻằơôđ- ĩãêãẳằẳ ầãằẳ í ằ- ú ùỗởợ ú ợù
ỉãạáằ-ơ ẳãêãẳằẳ Đãằẳ -ơẵà-
ễâằ-ơ ẳãêãẳằẳ Đãằẳ -ơẵà-

ĩơ đếằ đằẵá ơ ĩđơôơáũ èáằ -ơẵà- âằđằ ẵơằạđãƯằẳ ãơẵ ằ- ắ-ằẳ ô ơáằẳãêãẳằẳ
Đãằẳ- ơ ơáằ ắằạããạ ằẵá Đằđ ẳ ơáằ ô đằơôđ-ã ơáằâãạ Đằđ âằđằ ẵẵôơằẳũ èáã-
ãạôđằ đằđằ-ằơ- ơáằ êằđạằ ôđằơôđ êằđ ơáằằđãẳũ
ẫáơđằĐôơàằơáã áãơãạãẳêơạằẵđ ằđãẳ-ỏãđ-ơụĐô-áôẳ
ẵ-ãẳằđơáằêơããơĐẵôơãđĐơằũò-ơđơằạĐãêằ-ơãạãáãạáẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳ
-ơẵà-âôẳáêằẳằãêằđằẳãăằẳđằ-ôơ-êằđơáằ-ôắúằđãẳ-ụâđàãạâằã-ằ
ằđãẳ- ẳ ơ ã ơáằđ-ũ ằẵẳụ Đô ẵôẳàơơáằằđãẳ-âáằđằáãạáẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳ
-ơẵà-ẳãẳắằ-ơẳơđĐơãẳẵẵơđ-ơáơĐáằĐôãằúơôằơáã ơđơằạĐũ
đ ã-ơẵằụ áãạá ẳãêãẳằẳ -ơẵà- Đ ắằáêằ ôẵá ãàằ ắẳ- ãằđãẳ-áãạáãơã
ẳđã-ãạãơằđằ-ơđơằ-ẳ-ằêôằũèáã-âôẳằăãâáĐơáằĐôẳằđằđđằẳơáằ
đằ-ơ ơáằ đàằơ ắằơâằằ ùỗộù ẳ ùỗỗũ
ìơằ-ơâáằơáằđáãạáẳãêãẳằẳ-ơẵà-đằạẳẳằằ-ãêằãêằ-ơằơ-ụĐôẵ
-ằằâáằơáằđáãạáẳãêãẳằẳĐãạ-ơẵà-áẳôắằơơằđơáúẳãêãẳằẳĐãạ-ơẵà-
ẳôđãạắằđđàằơ-ũậ-ãạẳơđùỗợộơợùụơáằđằơôđ-áãạáằ-ơẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳ
-ơẵà-ứơợỷữâằđằẵđằẳơđằơôđ-ơáằâằ-ơẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳ-ơẵà-ứắơơ
ợỷữãắôđàằơĐằđ-ứâáằđằơơđàằơđằơôđằăẵằằẳằẳùỷữụắằđđàằơĐằđ-
ứâáằđằ ơơ đàằơ đằơôđ â- ằạơãêằữ ẳ ằôơđ Đằđ- ứâáằđằơơđàằơđằơôđâ-
ắằơâằằ ẳ ùỷữũ èáằ đằ-ôơ- đằ -ôđãƯằẳ ã ãạôđằ ợũợổ
ợ
úùởũỷ
úùũỷ
úởũỷ
ũỷ
ởũỷ
ùũỷ
ùởũỷ
ợũỷ
ợởũỷ
ớũỷ
ịô ềằôơđ ịằđ

ãạôđằ ợũợổ òđằ áãạá ẳãêãẳằẳ Đãằẳ -ơẵà- ắằơơằđ ẳằằ-ãêằ ãêằ-ơằơ-ỏ
ỉãạáằ-ơ ẳãêãẳằẳ Đãằẳ -ơẵà-
ễâằ-ơ ĩãêãẳằẳ ầãằẳ ơẵà-
ĩơđđằẵáũ èáằ-ằ đằ ơáằ êằđạằôđằơôđ- áãạá ẳãêãẳằẳ Đãằẳ ẳâẳãêãẳằẳ
Đãằẳ-ơẵà-ãắôđàằơĐằđ-ứ-ơẵà-ôđằơáùỷữụằôơđđàằơĐằđ-ứ-ơẵà-ô
ắằơâằằẳùỷữẳắằđđàằơĐằđ-ứ-ơẵà-ẳâđ ơáằ Đằđữũ
èáằđằã-ãơơằằêãẳằẵằđơáằẵãơáơáãạáẳãêãẳằẳ-ơẵà-đằắằơơằđẳằằ-ãêằ
ãêằ-ơằơ-ụ ằ-ằẵãĐ ã ắằđ đàằơ-ũ ịằơâằằ ùỗợộ ẳ ợùụ áãạáẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳ-ơẵà-
ẵơôĐ ẳằãêằđằẳ đằằạơãêằơơđằơôđ-ơáâẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳ-ơẵà-ẳôđãạắằđ
đàằơ-ũ
èáằĩãêãẳằẳĩạ-
òằăơđằằêằđ-ãáãạáẳãêãẳằẳđơãã-ơáằ-ơđơằạĐãêằ-ơãạãơáằ
Nĩâ ĩạ-Mụ ơáằ ơằ -ơẵà- âãơá ơáằ áãạáằ-ơ ẳãêãẳằẳ Đãằẳ- ã ơáằ ĩâ ớũ éđằơ-
ơáã- -ơđơằạĐ ẵã ơáơơáằĐạằằđơằáãạáđằơôđ-đãơụắôơơáằĐắ-ằơáã-ẵã
ẵđã- ơáằ đằơôđ- ơáơ Đô âôẳ áêằ ẳằ ơáằ -ơđơằạĐ ơ âáơ Đô âôẳ áêằ
ẳằãêằ-ơãạãơáằĩâớũđã-ơẵằụâằắ-ãơằẳằẳãẵơằẳơơáã ơđơằạĐ
ứẳạ-ơáằẳâũẵữẵã-ơáơĐôâôẳáêằằđằẳùộũộỷĐằđđùỗộớơợợ
ãêằ-ơãạ ã ơáằ ơằ áãạáằ-ơ ẳãêãẳằẳ Đãằẳ -ơẵà- ã ơáằĩâụôẵááãạáằđđằơôđơáơáằ
ùùũỗỷ Đô âôẳ áêằ ẳằ ơáằ đằ-ơ ơáằ ĩâũ
ềơĐã-ơáã-ẵđã-ằăơđđẳãđãĐđđâằPơằđụơáằđằđằ
-ằêằđơáô-ẳ ơẵà-ơáơđằơđơơáằĩâúắôơãơẵắằã-ằẳãạũểĐ
ơáằ ĩâ ĩạ -ơẵà- đằđã-àãằđơáơáằđằ-ơơáằĩâớ-ơẵà-ụẳơáằáãạáằđđằơôđ-
ơáằĐ àằ ẵôẳ ắằ ảô-ơ ẵằ-ơã đ ơáằ áãạáằđ đã-àũ ì ẳẳãơãụ Đ ãêằ-ơđãêằ-ơãạ
ợù
êằđ ơáằ-ằ -ơẵà- êằđ ơáằ ằđãẳ- ẵêằđằẳ ứơáằ -ãăơãằ- ẳ ơáằ -ằêằơãằ-ữ âôẳáêằẵằẳ
-ôắ-ơơãơăãắããơĐđơáằáãạáẳãêãẳằẳ-ũìơ-áôẳẵằ--ôđđã-ằơáơơá-ằ
-ơôẳãằ- ơáơ ẳ ẵơđ đ ơáằ đã-à ẳãằđằẵằ- ẳ ẵơđ ãơáằơăằằẵơ-ẵẵôẳằơáơơáằ
-ôằđãđ ằđđẵằ ơáằ ĩâ ĩạ -ơẵà- ã- ãđạằũ
4
éằđá-ụơáằắằ-ơơằ-ơ-ơđơằạĐã-ơàơơáằ-ơẵà-ơáơâôẳắằãẵàằẳ

ắ-ằẳôơáằ-ơđơằạĐẳ-àĐôđ-ằâáằơáằđĐôâôẳắằẵđơắằâãơáơáằ-ằ
-ơẵà-ũòơằđđàãạơáằĩâớ-ơẵà-ắĐẳãêãẳằẳĐãằẳụãểĐợớụơáằâãạ
-ơẵà- ằằđạằẳ - ơáằ ĩâ ĩạ-ổ
èắằợũùổĩâĩạ-ổểĐợớ
íĐ éđãẵằ ầãằẳ
òơđã ỡợũớùờũởỷ
ằằđ ểơđ- ớớũợờờũùỷ
-ơ ếẳà ớũợốởũỗỡỷ
ịííôãẵơã- ợởũùởỡũỡỗỷ
ệéểđạíá-ằ ớũỗ ỡũỡỷ
òèỳè ùỗũợởớũỗỷ
ĩôéơ ỡũỗỗớũỡợỷ
ỉằĐâằ ợỡũỡộớũờỷ
ăăểắã ớởũỗốợũộốỷ
ằằđ ằẵơđãẵ ợộũờỡợũộởỷ
ò-ãêằ-ơđẵ-ãẳằđãạơáã-đơãụĐô-áôẳ-àĐôđ-ằơáằâãạ
ôằ-ơã-ổ
ùũẫôẳ Đô âơ Đôđ ằơãđằâằơáơắằãêằ-ơằẳãĐơằ-ơẵà-ụơââáãẵá
đằơằằẵẵãằ-ỏđơáằ-ơẳãơ-đằẳãạĐôđđã-à-ẳ
ẳãêằđ-ãĐãạụ ơáã- ẳằ- ơ -ằằ đôẳằơũ
4
McQueen,G.,K.ShieldsandS.R.Thorley,1997, DoestheDow-10InvestmentStrategybeattheDow
statisticallyandeconomically? FinancialAnalystsJournal,July/August,66-72.Thisstudyexaminedthis
strategyandconcludedthatwhiletherawreturnsfrombuyingthetopdividendpayingstocksishigher
thantherestoftheindex,adjustingforriskandtaxeseliminatesalloftheexcessreturn.Astudyby
Hirschey(Hirschey,M.,2000,The DogsoftheDow Myth,FinancialReview,v35,1-15.)in2000also
indicatesthattherearenoexcessreturnsfromthisstrategyafteryouadjustforrisk.