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UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT

IMPACT OF REMITTANCES

ON POVERTY IN
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES


United nations ConferenCe on trade and development

Impact of RemIttances

on poveRty In
DevelopIng countRIes

New York and Geneva, 2011


Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In DevelopIng countRIes

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UNCTAD/DITC/TNCD/2010/8
Copyright © United Nations, 2011
All rights reserved. Printed in Switzerland

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Contents

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1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................. 2
2. REMITTANCES AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT:
REVIEW OF LITERATURE ............................................................... 4
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3. TRENDS IN MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES .............................. 8
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4. IMPACT OF REMITTANCES ON POVERTY IN
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ................... 17
5. IMPACT OF REMITTANCES ON POVERTY IN INDIA ................... 23
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6. IMPACT OF REMITTANCES ON POVERTY IN KERALA .............. 27

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7. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ................. 30

appenDI
RefeRences
Tables
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FIGURes
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Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In DevelopIng countRIes

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IntRoDuctIon
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Secondly,

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Thirdly,
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1. introdUCtion

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Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In DevelopIng countRIes

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RemIttances anD economIc
Development RevIe of lIteRatuRe
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2.1. Link between remittances and household development
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2. remittanCes and eConomiC development revie

of literatUre

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2.2. Link between remittances and GDP
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2.3. Link between remittance, consumption and investment8
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Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In DevelopIng countRIes

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2.4. link between remittances, poverty and welfare
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2. remittanCes and eConomiC development revie

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2.5. Link between remittances and foreign exchange
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2.6. Link between remittances and employment
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Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In DevelopIng countRIes

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tRenDs In mIgRatIon anD RemIttances
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3.1. Trends in global migrants
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Table 1. Global migrants stocks (in million)
Migrants in
Migrants from

Developing
countries

High-income OeCD
countries

High-income non
OeCD countries

Total

Developing
countries

73.9
(47%)

61.8
(40%)

20.1
(13%)

155.8
(100%)

High-income
OECD countries

3.4
(11%)

25.5
(85%)

1.2
(4%)

30.1
(100%)

High-income nonOECD countries

0.8
(17%)

3.6
(77%)

0.3
(6%)

4.7
(100%)

Total

78
(41%)

90.9
(48%)

21.6
(11%)

191
(100%)

Source: World Bank Working Paper No: 102 (2007).13

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Table 2. Top 10 immigration economies, 2005
Countries

No. of immigrants
(In Millions)

Countries

as %
of Population

United States

38.4

Qatar

78

Russian Federation

12.1

Andorra

78

Germany

10.1

Utd. Arab Emirates

71

Ukraine

6.8

Monaco

70

France

6.5

Kuwait

62

Saudi Arabia

6.4

Isle of Man

48

Canada

6.1

Channel Islands

46

India

5.7

West Bank & Gaza

45

United Kingdom

5.4

Singapore

43

Spain

4.8

Bahrain

41

Source: United Nations Population Division.


Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In DevelopIng countRIes

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Table 3. Top 10 emigration economies, 2005
No. of emigrants
(In Millions)

Countries

Countries

as %
of Population

Mexico

11.5

Jamaica

39

Russian Federation

11.5

Bosnia & Herzegovina

38

India

10.0

Trinidad & Tobago

28

China

7.3

Albania

27

Ukraine

6.1

Armenia

27

Bangladesh

4.9

West Bank & Gaza

26

Turkey

4.4

Kazakhstan

25

Ukraine

4.2

Georgia

23

Germany

4.1

Ireland

22

Kazakhstan

3.7

Serbia & Montenegro

22

Source: Development Prospects Group, World Bank.

3.2 Trends in global remittances
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3. trends in mi ration and remittanCes

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Table 4. Top 10 recipients of remittances during 2008
Top 10 Countries

$ billion

Top 10 Countries

% of GDP

India

52

Tajikistan

50

China

49

Tonga

38

Mexico

26

Republic of Moldova

31

Philippines

19

Kyrgyzstan

28

Poland

11

Lesotho

27

Nigeria

10

Samoa

26

Romania

9

Lebanon

25

Bangladesh

9

Guyana

24

Egypt

9

Nepal

22

Viet Nam

7

Honduras

20

Source: Development Prospects Group, World Bank.

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3.3. Trends in Indian migrants and remittances
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3.3.1 Trends in migrants from India

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Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In DevelopIng countRIes

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Table 5. annual growth of remittances inflows in different regions
Income groups/
regions
all developing
countries
Low-income
countries

1991

1995

2000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

9.71

9.50

8.74

17.06

21.03

18.33

22.93

16.72

-16.66

13.38

10.37

15.18

21.82

23.88

23.37

28.32

Middle-income
countries

12.70

9.25

8.62

17.22

20.96

17.85

22.89

15.64

Lower MICs

12.79

17.45

8.54

12.40

22.58

18.57

28.98

21.04

Upper MICs

12.56

-1.26

8.76

25.27

18.52

16.72

13.31

5.97

East Asia and
Pacific

17.48

43.60

5.11

23.37

25.10

14.15

23.80

20.76

-13.15

-10.94

9.67

45.34

43.59

24.10

35.98

13.83

Latin America and
Caribbean

18.23

20.70

13.54

18.36

15.68

18.11

6.82

2.34

Middle East and
North Africa

11.91

-5.38

0.76

13.13

8.35

4.62

20.11

10.62

Europe and
Central Asia

South Asia

8.60

5.05

14.11

-5.51

18.23

25.35

27.09

35.63

Sub-Saharan
Africa

-0.17

38.58

4.29

34.35

16.92

34.66

47.64

13.37

High-income
OeCD

3.08

15.28

-4.06

12.93

3.67

7.58

17.05

10.57

High-income
non-OeCD

3.72

-30.44

-1.96

35.10

12.48

5.33

8.64

14.90

High-income

3.10

12.43

-3.99

14.11

4.23

7.43

16.49

10.84

World

6.09

10.77

3.69

16.13

15.85

15.31

21.26

15.26

Source: World Bank.
Note: MIC stands for middle-income countries.

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Table 6. estimated size of overseas Indian community: Top 15 countries (December 2001)
Countries

PIOs

Saudi Arabia

Indian citizen

2,500,000

United Kingdom
South Africa

2,000

stateless

Total
population

400,000

2,902,000

N.A

N.A

N.A

1,678,765

1,600,000

15,000

50,000

1,665,000

...

1,500,000

...

1,500,000

N.A

N.A

N.A

1,200,000

United Arab Emirates
Canada
Mauritius

N.A

N.A

N.A

1,000,000

Canada

700,000

150,000

1,000

851,000

Mauritius

704,640

11,116

...

715,756

Trinidad &Tobago

500,000

600

...

500,600

Guyana

395,250

100

...

395,350

Fiji

336,579

250

...

336,829

Oman
Singapore

1,000

311,000

...

312,000

217,000

9,000

81,000

307,000

1,000

294,000

...

295,000

Kuwait

Note: PIOs - Persons of Indian Origin.
Source: Compiled from the Report of High Level Committee on Indian Diaspora.

3.3.2. Trends in Indian remittances
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Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In DevelopIng countRIes

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Table 7. Distribution of annual labour outflows from India to major destinations

Countries

2002

2004

2006

2007

2008

Up to March 2009

United Arab Emirates

95034

175262

254774

312695

349827

35905

Saudi Arabia

99453

12322

134059

195437

228406

80962

Malaysia

10512

31464

36500

30916

21123

4611

Qatar

12596

16325

76324

88483

82937

11953

Oman

41209

33275

67992

95462

89659

17175

Kuwait

4859

52064

47449

48467

35562

10982

Bahrain

20807

22980

37688

29967

31924

6806

Maldives

---

3233

4671

ECNR

ECNR

ECNR

Mauritius

---

3544

1795

ECNR

ECNR

ECNR

Jordan

---

2576

1485

1254

1377

242

Other

83193

121915

14175

6772

7786

2011

Total

367663

474960

676912

809453

848601

170647

High-income non-OECD

3.72

-30.44

-1.96

35.10

12.48

5.33

High-income

3.10

12.43

-3.99

14.11

4.23

7.43

World

6.09

10.77

3.69

16.13

15.85

15.31

Source: Compiled from Annual Report (2008-09), Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs.
ECNR: Emigration Clearance Not Reported.

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Table 8. Immigration clearance of workers granted during 2002–08, state-wise shares
Ranks
(in 2008)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

states

2002

2004

2006

2007

2008

Kerala
UP
Tamil Nadu
Andhra Pradesh
Rajasthan
Bihar
Punjab
West Bengal
Maharashtra
Karnataka
Gujarat
Orissa
Delhi
Madhya Pradesh
Haryana
Others
Total

22.29
5.25
21.53

10.45
6.32
5.23
5.34
2.27
6.93
3.82
3.24
0.47
1.09
2.02
0.12
3.63
100

13.37
5.77
22.94
15.28
7.39
4.59
5.33
1.89
6.04
4.05
4.68
1.47
1.27
1.87
0.27

3.78
100

17.74
9.77
22.99
14.43
7.42
5.39
5.81
2.21
2.27
3.60
1.96
0.61
1.34
1.04
0.03
2.79
100

18.59
11.32
18.64
12.98
8.76
6.40
6.66
3.07
2.66

3.34
2.48
0.83
0.66
0.45
0.23
2.58
100

21.29
16.41
15.18
11.49
7.61
7.15
6.42
3.07
2.92
2.64
1.85
1.05
0.53
0.27
0.21
1.63
100

Up to 31 March
2009
20.58

20.48
13.33
11.12
6.63
7.66
4.38
3.25
3.20
3.22
1.69
1.05
0.41
0.31
0.20
2.23
100

Source: Offices of the Protectors of Emigrants.

Figure 1. Trends and composition of remittances transfer
Inward remittances
for family maintenance
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000

5000
0

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

Local withdrawal
redemption from NRI deposits

2002-03 2003-04

Total Remittance

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
(R)

Source: Invisibles in India’s Balance of Payments, “RBI Bulletin”, March 2009.
Notes: R: Revised, PR: Partially Revised and P: Preliminary.

2007-08 2008-09
(PR) (Apr-Sep) (P)


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Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In DevelopIng countRIes

Table 9. India’s workers’ remittances, compensation of employees, and migrant transfers,
credit ($ million)
Outflow
as % of Inflow

Years

Inflow

Outflow

1980

2,757

29

1.05

1981

2,301

15

0.65

1982

2,618

14

0.53

1983

2,660

40

1.50

1984

2,295

27

1.18

1985

2,469

31

1.26

1986

2,240

42

1.88

1987

2,665

65

2.44

1988

2,315

93

4.02

1989

2,614

99

3.79

1990

2,384

106

4.45

1991

3,289

52

1.58

1992

2,897

68

2.35

1993

3,523

259

7.35

1994

5,857

351

5.99

1995

6,223

419

6.73

1996

8,766

538

6.14

1997

10,331

162

1.57

1998

9,479

44

0.46

1999

11,124

36

0.32

2000

12,890

486

3.77

2001

14,273

751

5.26

2002

15,736

1,187

7.54

2003

20,999

1,265

6.02

2004

18,750

1,653

8.81

2005

22,125

1,341

6.06

2006

28,334

1,580

5.58

2007

37,217

1,580

4.25

2008

51,581

1,580

3.06

2009

47,000

...

...

Source: World Bank, Migration and development brief 11 (Nov. 2009).


4. impaCt of remittanCes on povert in developin CoUntries empiriCal anal sis

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Table 10. Inflows and outflows from NRI deposits, local withdrawals and remittances
Years

local withPrivate transfers
local withdrawals
drawals from (included in current
as % of private
NRI deposits
account of boP)
transfers

Inflows

Outflows

1999-00

7,405

5,865

4,120

12,290

33.5

2000-01

8,988

6,672

4,727

13,065

36.2

2001-02

11,435

8,681

8,546

15,760

54.2

2002-03

10,214

7,236

6,644

17,189

38.6

2003-04

14,281

10,639

10,585

22,182

47.7

2004-05

8,071

9,035

8,907

21,075

42.3

2005-06

17,835

15,046

12,454

24,951

49.9

2006-07 (R)

19,914

15,593

13,208

30,835

42.8

2007-08 (PR)

29,401

29,222

18,919

43,506

43.5

2008-09
(Apr-Sep) (P)

18,237

17,164

11,217

27,042

41.5

2007-08
(Apr-Sept) (PR)

12,227

12,305

7,891

18,025

43.8

Source: Invisibles in India’s Balance of Payments: An Analysis of Trade in Services, Remittances
and Income, RBI, March-16, 2009.
Notes: P: Provisional, PR: Partially Revised and R: Revised.

Impact of RemIttances on poveRty
In DevelopIng countRIes empIRIcal
analysIs
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Impact of RemIttances on poveRty In DevelopIng countRIes

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dp
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Log (POVit) = α1 + α2 log (PCYit) + α3 log (INEQit) + α 4 log (REMit) + εit ………(1)
(Where, i = 1.....N, t = 1....Ti )
pov

α

pC

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dp

rem
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α
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poor the are poor
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