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The metabolic scale of the world economy
in the past century

Fridolin Krausmann, Marina Fischer-Kowalski
Julia Steinberger and Nina Eisenmenger

Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009


Overview
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Global metabolic scale

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Metabolic rates

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Global convergence scenarios

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Resource productivity

Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009

Global materials extraction = use (DMC)
1900 to 2005

Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009


Global material extraction database
Material type

Content

Source

Biomass

165 primary crops incl. used
crop residues (<50 crops)
Roughage and grazed
biomass (12 items)
Wood harvest

FAO and predecessors;
used crop residues (model);
grazed biomass (model);
wood harvest (FAO, various
estimates)

Fossil energy carriers

Hard and soft coal,
petroleum, natural gas, peat

Podobnik 1995, United
Nations 1950, IEA 2007

Ores

44 ores (gross ore)

Metal content: USGS 2008
Gross ores: estimate

Non metallic minerals

33 non-metallic minerals

USGS 2008

Construction minerals

Limestone for cement
production, sand and gravel
for construction

Conservative estimate;
based on cement
production; concrete
production and asphalt
production

Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009


Metabolic scale:
Global materials use 1900 to 2005

Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009


Metabolic scale:
Global materials use 1900 to 2005

Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009


Periods of growth:
Average annual growth rates (DMC, GDP, population)

Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009


Metabolic scale
Definition: metabolic scale is the size of the overall annual material
(DMC) or primary energy input (TPES, DEC) of a socio-economic system,
measured according to established standards of MEFA analysis.

The metabolic scale of the world economy has been increasing by one
order of magnitude during the last century:
– Materials use: From 7 billion tons to over 60 bio t (DMC, all
materials).
– Energy use: From 44 EJ primary energy to 480 EJ (TPES,
commercial energy only).

Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009


Metabolic rate
Definition: Metabolic rate is the metabolic scale of a socio-economic
system divided by its population number = annual material / energy use
per capita
It represents the biophysical burden associated to an average individual
The global metabolic rate:
• Moderate growth from 1900 to 1945 (0.2%);
• Rapid growth from 1945 to 1973 (1.6%);
• Stabilization from 1973 to 2000 (0.6%) despite substantial economic
growth; 8t/cap (DMC) and 60 GJ/cap (TPES).
• Since 2000: a new phase of growth (3.7%) can be observed.

Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009


Metabolic rates:
Material and energy use per capita

Materials

Energy

Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009


National trends: metabolic scale (DMC)
Global

Brazil: 4% of global

USA: 15% of global

India: 8% of global

Sources:
USA: Gierlinger 2009
Brazil: Mayer 2009
India: Lanz 2009
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009


National trends: metabolic rates
Global

Brazil

USA

India

Sources:
USA: Gierlinger 2009
Brazil: Mayer 2009
India: Lanz 2009
Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009


Metabolic rate vs. income (GDP/cap):

R2 = 0.64

N = 175 countries
Year 2000

Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009


Metabolic rates
by development status and population density
DMC t/cap in yr 2000

Share of world
population

13%

6%

62%

6%

Pop density

123

12

140

19

Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009


Scenario assumptions
(all : relation between high density/low density countries remains unchanged;
population growth by UN projection)

1.

Baseline 2000 scenario

2.

Freeze and catching up: industrial countries maintain their
metabolic rates of the year 2000, developing countries catch up to
same rates

3.

Factor 2 and catching up: industrial countries reduce their
metabolic rates by factor 2, developing countries catch up

4.

Freeze global DMC: global resource consumption by the year
2000 remains constant by 2050, industrial and developing
countries settle for identical metabolic rates

Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009


Global convergence scenarios
Global metabolic rates in t/cap

Global metabolic scales in billion
tonnes

Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009

Global convergence scenarios
Global metabolic rates in t/cap
Global metabolic scales in billion tonnes

Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009


Resource productivity:
GDP per unit of materials and energy input

Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009


Resource productivity:
GDP per unit of materials input (biomass/minerals)

Biomass

Minerals

Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009


Thank you for your attention!
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Data download:

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Publications:
– Krausmann, F., Gingrich, S., Eisenmenger, N., Erb, K.H., Haberl, H., FischerKowalski, M. 2009. Growth in global materials use, GDP and population
during the 20th century, Ecological Economics (in press).
– Krausmann, F., M. Fischer-Kowalski, H. Schandl, and N. Eisenmenger 2008. The
global socio-metabolic transition: past and present metabolic profiles and
their future trajectories. Journal of Industrial Ecology 12(5/6), 637-656.

Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon |
22.06.2009