các tác động của cuộc khủng hoảng tại mỹ hoặc eurozone đối với nền kinh tế việt nam e

các tác động của cuộc khủng hoảng tại Mỹ hoặc Eurozone đối với nền kinh tế Việt Nam
A : The influences of crisis in US and Eurzone on Vietnam’s economy
Firstly, it leads to lower export demand. The European debt crisis resulted in a
series of corollary: slower world economic recovery’s speed, particularly the Eurozone
will face unemployment and high inflation, devaluation of the Euro, decline of GDP
growth as well as a sharp decrease of people’s real income and consumer demand for
import products. Discussed this problem, there are some comments that cheap goods are
noted as the advantages of Vietnam; therefore,

debt crisis may help to direct the

Europeans to choose Vietnamese goods as an alternative for luxury and standard goods.
However,the European debt crisis also leads to a negative impact on export and GDP
growth in Vietnam, with a decline of about 1.7% of GDP in 2011, if there are no policies
to

immediately

support,

Vietnam's

export

will

face

many

difficulties.

Secondly, Vietnam banks’high interest rates will cause disadvantage for the
competitiveness of Vietnamese enterprises. Due to the fear of the negative impact from
the debt crisis, many central banks in developed countries still remain recorded low
interest rate in order to stimulate economic recovery and accept inflation in certain extent
. The basis exchange rate approaching 0% in most countries are: the Federal Reserve
(U.S.): 0.25%; ECB (EU): 1%; BOE (UK): 0.5%; Japan 0.1%. On the contrary, in
Vietnam, the businesses have to loan with interest rates of about 14-16% / year with short
term and about 14.5 to 17% / year for the medium term and long term
Third, foreign direct investment has been decreased: The European debt crisis
could create completely opposite effect on global FDI flows. The countries with the level
of development equivalent to the EU will benefit from FDI shifted from Europe to these
countries when investors want to avoid business income tax which intends to rise in
European countries.Meanwhile, the low developing countries as Vietnam are absolutely
benefit nothing from the shift FDI due to the gap in the level of technology, while inflows
from European investors in these countries declined due to the debt crisis.
Fourth; gold price is booming: Investors worldwide now regard gold as a safe solution in
the context of European debt crisis’ spread, making the gold’sprice increased to $ 1,700 /


ounce in recent years. Many individuals and organizations in Europe, Asia scrambling to
buy gold, platinum and silver reflects the need for more secured solution than notes. This
will negatively impact the investment worldwide and in Vietnam because when gold
accounting for a large proportion in the portfolio of the organizations means that other
categories such as stocks ad bonds will be significantly reduced. Thus, the indirect
investment

flows

become

more

limited.

Fifth, Credit Defaut Spread (CDS) is likely to increase; Greek’problem is making the
global investors become more cautious with other countries with similar problems. There
are 3 warning figures including: too much debt reflected in high debt-to-GDP ratio,
excessive spending reflected in the large budget deficit to GDP and decline of GDP
growth rate. As a result, Vietnam with high debt ratio and chronic budget deficits is
considered to be in the category of high-risk countries . This would be a huge obstacle in
attracting direct and indirect investment capital flows as well as foreign lending.
Sixth, exchange rate fluctuation become more and more unpredictable: The European
debt crisis also creates fluctuations in exchange rates. Dollar and especially the yen will
continue to rise sharply against the euro thanks to their safety compared to the euro. In the
context of more serious crisis, the Euro devaluates much compared relatively to the U.S.
dollar.
In June, the exchange rate USD / Euro is 1.19, which is very low compared to
approximately 1.4 by the beginning of March that will create certain risks in borrowing
and exchanging for business importers and exporters as well as for commercial
banks’foreign exchange operations.Vietnam with a bias in foreign debt will face this
impact of exchange rate in repaying the public debt. In terms of loan period, when the
majority of these loans are medium-and long-term implementation, there will be high risk
in credit and exchange rate.The ability to control inflation depends on the calculation the
real exchange rate and the parity purchasing power of the currency in each period. So, the
gap between the loan and the capital repayment at maturity of foreign loans will be
affected by the exchange rate incase of ineffective loan using and management .
The published data on the public debt shows that the pressure from current Vietnam's

public debt is not the most troubling because most of Vietna loans are the medium and
long term, low interest rates, ODA loans, loans with fixed interest rates majority. This
does not mean that Vietnam's public debt is currently still at safety because the statistics
are not close and the basis of calculation is not standardized. The use of public debt
becomes a greater issues in Vietnam. We had lessons from ODA management of PMU 18
and its consequences. Moreover, Vietnam's public debt management overlaps between
many agencies and debt and loan management capacity of local authority with
government-guaranteed is still insufficient. Therefore, if public debt management is not
considered seriously, its consequences to the economy of Vietnam in the future will not be
small, especially when Vietnam's economy is rated as high open economy in the world
B:

The

1.

impact

of

the

global

Manufacturing

The

lack

of

crisis

to

Vietnamese

enterprises
capital

is

enterprises.

lack

illustrated

capital:
as

following:

- FDI inflows into Vietnam meet significant decline; In 2011, total registered FDI capital
reached

12.9

billion,

decreased

16%

compared

to

that

in

2010.

- Due to Vietnam's high level budget deficit and public investment restrictions.
- In 2011, the interest rate of the credit organisations to businesses was at an average of
18.3%. An increase of 3% compared to 2010 is too high interest causing great pressure
on

production

costs.

- For agricultural products like rice, aquaculture products with high export
turnover currently struggle on the difficulties of output. In the first six months of 2012
Vietnam exported 3.3 million tons of rice. Cashew’s output in 2010 also decreased by 2030%.
- For the coffee sector, due to lack of capital, the business now only buy 7-8% against
the

plan

of

200,000

tons

inputs prices Rise:
The impact of the global financial crisis has led many businesses face many
difficulties before the price’s rise of raw material. Typically, the items raising price are:
• Electricity: March, 2011 increased by 15%, December 2011 5% July 2012 increased by


5%
• Gasoline: only in August 2012 increased three times, since early 2012 has been revised
up

to

6

times.

• 28-40% rise in coal price.
11 Limited output market:

Import Markets: The value of imported goods for the whole year of 2008 was estimated at
$ 80.4 billion, increased of 28.3% compared to 2007, including: the domestic economic sector
reached 51.8 billion U.S. dollars, raised by 26.5%,the foreign-invested sector reached $ 28.6

billion, raised by 31.7%. Three large-proportion product groups in total imported goods turnover
in 2008 are production material (88.8%); consumer goods (up 7.8%) and gold (up 3.4%).
However, the import of raw materials for production in the last months of the year tends to be
much reduced. Meanwhile, imports of consumer goods increased in the last months of the year
showed that the foreign consumer goods are putting pressure on the Vietnamese consumer goods
at the local market.


- Export market: Since 2001, Vietnam has established economic development strategy
towards export and this strategy has achieved some success. However, Vietnam economy
has depended too much on exports while exports accounted for 70% of GDP. But the
current global crisis had a negative impact on Vietnam's exports due to the shrunk of
major product market. However, in three months of 2011, exports reached about 19% of
the plan. In those three months, ten export items such as electronics and computer
components, seafood, coffee, cashew nuts, crude oil decreased from10-20%, of nearly
50% as rubber, electric cable,etc. This proves that Vietnam businesses are strongly
influenced by the world economic crisis.
2. Corporate bankruptcy and workers’ unemployment:
Only in the last few years, there have been 80,000 Vietnam businesses facing bankruptcy
and pending bankruptcy since the global economic crisis erupted. Only from the
beginning of 2012 till now, there has been 49,000 business bankruptcy and dissolution.
According to the Ministry of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs ‘report, in 2010 there
were 190,000 unemployed people in working age, 330,000 people in 2011, 116,000 in the
first quarter of 2012 and according to statistics, the first half of 2012 Vietnam's
unemployment rate is 2.29% of the working age.
C: The most affected corporations, companies from the crisis
1. EVN Group:
Total electricity value in 2010 was 90,934 billion corresponding to the average electricity
price of 1061.4 e / kWh electricity. The total cost of electricity production in 2010 was

101,096 billion; corresponding to the cost of electricity production in 2010 is 1180.0 e /
kWh electricity. Thus, in 2010, EVN's electricity production’s loss was1062 billion dong.
This loss does not include losses to loss / profit in joint-stock companies within EVN
contribution. Cost is "suspended" and has not been calculated into the cost of EVN's
electricity production in 2010 included losses from exchange rate differences (15 463
billion) and the cost of managing the remaining rural grid (356 billion contract). Investing
in other industries is 4551 billion equivalent to 4.13% of charter capital.
2. Vinashin Group:
According to the inspection results, assets and funds of Vinashin at the end of 31/12/2009
is 102.000 billion, excluding the internal debt which is more than 92 500 billion. Up to
present, Vinashin's liabilities are more than 86,700 billion. Notably, according to the
results of the audited financial statements in 2009, Vinashin lost nearly 1,700 billion, but
by inspectional investigation determined by the Government,the actual group's losses
amounted to nearly 5000 billion, more than 3,300 billion compared with the audit report.
In addition, the Government Inspectorate also found out that Vinashin has about 8,500
billion potential losses, including nearly 2,800 billion cost of unfinished business of the
shipbuilding contracts which have been canceled; difference from other receivables
internal revenue which cannot identify the object to be collected closely to 4,700 billion
and 1,000 billion penalty and interest on the deposit for the ship-owners due toVinashin
violation of the contracts.
3. Vinalines Corporation:
The Government Inspectorate has announced a range of issues in business activity and
results of Vinalines in period 2007 - 2010. In particular, the 4 biggest problems are:
buying a great number of old ships, involving in many ship’s arrests, constructing without
considering carefully in addition to the wrong financial planning and investment
principles. These errors, along with a number of factors, have led to poor business results,
with total losses in the two years from 2009 to 2010 to more than 1686 billion. Other
financial indicators are of great concern. Investment capital in other fields of Vinalines is
672 billion equivalent to10.37% of the charter capital.

4. Petrolimex Corporation:
State Auditor (SAV) said it has audited and issued 2011audit reports and financial
statements at Petrolimex. Based on that, this business’ loss is 2604 billion dong, mainly


due to exchange rate differences. More specifically, according to the consolidated
financial statements of Petrolimex,the profit before tax for the year 2011 lost 1423 billion
dong including loss amount of oil business sector is 2,358 billion (of which loss amount
of oil and gas business is 2604 billion), interest of joint stock companies and other
businesses and consolidation by offsetting financial statements is 935 billion. There
were1423 billion losses excluding 949 billion losses due to the revaluation of financial
investments, investment securities at the time of the 100% state-owned enterprises turned
into joint-stock companies.

D: Governmental attempts affecting financial performance of enterprises in
Vietnam
1. Suitable exchange rate policies for anti-inflation
Recent modifications in exchange rate policy have shown attempts of narrowing
the gap between official exchange rate and that in free market, which helps to balance
supply-demand relationship and reduces foreign currency retention and speculation in the
economy. Those are necessary and accurate modifications that meet actual needs in
governmental management and in business as well as match principles of monetary
theories.
2. Adjustments in operating interest rate and ceiling mobilization interest
rate.
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has released its notice on the adjustments in
operating interest rate and deposit interest rate. This decision is released while
liquidity of banks is surplus; market interest rate tends to decrease and inflation
tends to decrease as well. Accordingly, interest rate for refund decreases from
13%/year to 12%/year; lending interest rate for interbank electronic transaction

declines from 14%/year to 13%/year; interest rate for re-discount decreases from
11%/year to 10%/year. Maximum interest rate for untermed and termed deposit in
VND under 1 month drops from 4%/year to 3%/year; maximum interest rate for
termed deposit more than 1 month drops from 12%/year to 11%/year. Particularly,
local people’s credit fund determines the maximum interest rate for termed deposit
of more than 1 month to decrease from 12,5%/year to 11,5%/year.


3. Tax policies:
Tax exemption, reduction, break, extension and the adjustment of reducing import
tariff for some certain goods groups that are input materials for production, not
domestically produced or not sufficient for demand are important financial policy
assisting enterprises to overcome difficulties, stimulating production and business.
4. Reduction of state budget deficit and public expenditure
According to inspection report on the implementation of estimated state budget in
20011, estimate and plan of state budget allocation in 2012 of the Committee for Finance
and State Budget of National Assembly, although the Resolution No. 11/NQ-CP focuses
on the reduction of public expenditure, saving an additional 10% of regular expenditure
(apart from saving 10% of estimate from the beginning of the year), the total expenditure
of state budget still exceeds 9,7% of estimate (70,400 billion VND) and this is a
considerable increase. The Government plans to allocate 9,100 billion VND from the
increase of state budget collection in order to reduce state budget deficit in 2011, to
111,500 billion VND equivalent to 4,9% of GDP, a decrease of 4% compared to the
estimate from the beginning of the year.
5

Economic structure transformation:

The Government is gradually implementing the program of transforming agricultural
economic structure under the direction of goods production (developing material regions,

aquaculture planting; developing ecotourism sites; and specializing in production areas
suiting geographic and natural conditions…) and application of high technology.
6 – Promotion of anti-corruption campaign
According to assessment of the Global Transparency Organization, Vietnam is ranked as
the country with high corruption in the world. Some serious economic cases recently
uncovered have revealed attempts of Vietnamese government in its anti-corruption
campaign. Objective of this phase is to clean public servants and make the finance and
economic relationships better, fight against group interest.
E: Solutions for improvement of economic effectiveness after crisis
1- Flexible and effective management of the government in monetary policies.


To facilitate enterprises in capital access, adjust export tariff as well as import tariff of
some goods in order to avoid negative chain events to the domestic market and prove
solutions for timely preventing and settling them from returning, the Government should
strictly manage the foreign currency transaction in free market in order to prevent foreign
currency speculation and pressure on exchange rate, through the State Bank implement its
profession on selling foreign currency in order to decrease and stabilize exchange rate in
market, facilitating enterprises to import equipment…supporting enterprises to extend
their production and export, stimulating domestic enterprises in developing their
production and export, stabilizing people’s life. The State should use its micromanagement tool in order to adjust and make domestic production develop quickly,
strongly, qualitatively, suit people’s taste in this difficult time, stimulate enterprises to
develop their markets and promote business and export.
2- Governmental directions helping enterprises:
It is necessary to diversify forms of export, pay more attention on distribution
channels in importing countries, hold fairs, promote trade marks, promote images of
Vietnamese enterprises. Besides, the Government also should support big enterprises to
open their representative offices in big and good markets for ease of knowing
information, determining customers and seeking customers, monitoring market situations,
minimizing risks to the exporters, quickly accessing markets, exploiting competitive

advantages of Vietnamese enterprises and exporting such advantages to local countries
with higher competitive advantages.
3– Higher cooperation and business relation of enterprises:
To utilize opportunities and exploit new markets in this global crisis, enterprises must try
to minimize expenditure, save and unite together in order to overcome such difficult time.
Enterprises should form clubs, raise the common voices to international partners, avoid
competition in buying and selling in domestic market leading damage to enterprises, set
proper plans and directions, cooperate, unite to form strength in comparative advantages.
Role of profession associations in diversity of unification forms should be improved.
Besides, they should establish financial support funds, scientific research fund in order to


implement their common research projects, promote cooperation in stead of competition,
share markets, seeking new markets such as the Middle East, Egypt… Our strong
products like rice, tea, aqua products, vegetables, clothes…is entering such markets but
with limited scale. Enterprises should grasp information, timely and quickly treat
information. Such markets are very potential to enterprises. In this crisis period,
enterprises should create their opportunities, cooperate, unite, determine long term
business, confirm their potentials and trademarks on market.
4- Expenditure cut down policies of the Government and enterprises to overcome
difficulties:
Impacts of global crisis cause difficulties to export. To help enterprises avoid production
and export delay, contract termination due to lack of finance, the Government has directed
banks to group loans, extend loans and continue lending. Besides, series of strict measures
have been applied in order to control inflation by fiscal policies, reducing loans in real
estate and securities, limiting cash flow, allowing temporary delay or renewal in
construction of some ineffective capital investment projects, concentrating capital for
projects with visible economic outputs such as power plants, oil refineries…at the same
time limiting loss of tax, promoting collection of tax and overdue loans.
5-Support of domestic customers should not be neglected:

Enterprises should save themselves, not just waiting. We have to be confidents of us with
the motto “Vietnamese people should use Vietnamese products”. With national spirit,
domestic customers are willing to use products made in Vietnam with pride. Domestic
market is easy and it understands this difficult time. Contribution and use of Vietnamese
products show patriotism. For the awareness of customers to such issue, enterprises
should be responsible for ensure quality of good products and respect customers.
6- Clearance of investment environment:
Domestic enterprises and international businessmen should unit to establish enterprises
and operate better than previous enterprises in order to attract investment and promote
production capacity and extend markets of products, stabilize markets, limit inflation. To
achieve such goal, micra-policies should facilitate investors at the same time local


policies should be clear from administrative procedures; infrastructure system should be
updated and repaired for completion; localities should prepare highly qualified prior to
calling for investment to areas that are strength of the localities; policies should be
favorable to attract investors.

CONCLUSION
The 2008 global economic crisis occurring in the USA has caused the most serious
consequences since the WWII. Many big enterprises, groups declared bankruptcy causing
serious shock in American and regional markets. In such situations, Governments have
adopted measures to overcome economic downturns through solutions of financial
policies and fiscal policies.
For Vietnam, the global financial crisis not only reduces export rate, domestic and
international investments but also cause many enterprises go into bankruptcy. In such
situation, Vietnamese Government has applied many policies to assist enterprises
overcome crisis such as tax extension, tax reduction, capital support…On the other hand,
the flexibility of enterprises should be taken into account. They know how to take
advantages of the Governmental supports and their internal force to overcome difficulties.

Besides achievements, it is necessary to state that some enterprises still find it difficult to
access capital sources from banks. Therefore, the Government should have policies to
support enterprises with faster capital to overcome difficulties.
The global economic crisis has caused great challenges to countries, particularly
developing countries. For Vietnam, it receives less serious impact of this crisis making
Vietnam market stable and attractive to domestic and international investors. Therefore,
Vietnamese Government and enterprises should have policies and solutions to stimulate
domestic investment and attract foreign investment. That is the great advantages for
Vietnam to develop in the years to come.