Retrofitting cities for tomorrows world

Table of Contents
Cover
Title Page
List of Contributors
Biographies
Foreword
Preface
Reviews
1 Introduction
Overview
1.1 The Future (or ‘Tomorrow’s World’) of Cities
1.2 The Structure of the Book
References
Part I: Governance and Dynamics of Urban Retrofit
2 Community Housing Retrofit in the UK and the Civics of Energy Consumption
Overview
2.1 Challenges to Systemic Housing Retrofit
2.2 Community and Low Carbon Futures
2.3 Community Housing Retrofit
2.4 Community Housing Retrofit and the Civics of Low carbon Transitions
References
3 ‘City wide or City blind’? An Analysis of Retrofit Practices in the UK Commercial
Property Sector
Overview
3.1 Introduction
3.2 UK Commercial Property: Nature and Characteristics of Commercial
Property
3.4 Research Findings
3.5 Conclusions and Discussion
Acknowledgements

References
4 Performance Gap in ‘Deep’ Retrofit of Housing
Overview
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Defining the Performance Gap


4.3 Methodology – Expert Interviews
4.4 Findings
4.5 Conclusions
References
5 Transforming the Commercial Property Market in Australians Cities
Overview
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Green Roofs Defined
5.3 Retrofit Issues in Commercial Stock in Australian Cities
5.4 Drivers for Green Roofs
5.5 Transformation of the Commercial Property Stock
5.6 Valuation Issues
5.7 Retrofitting Investment to Date
5.8 Taxation Considerations
5.9 Contemporary Practices
5.10 Future Potential in Green Roof Retrofit
5.11 Conclusions
Acknowledgements
References
Part II: Modelling Urban Transitions and Pathways
6 Modelling Residential Retrofit
Overview
6.1 Introduction

6.2 Context
6.3 Methodology
6.4 Results
6.5 Conclusions
Acknowledgements
References
7 Weatherproofing Urban Social Housing for a Changing Climate Through
Retrofitting
Overview
7.1 Scope
7.2 The UK Housing Retrofit Challenge and Potential Unintended
Consequences


7.3 Challenges and Opportunities for Social Housing Retrofit
7.4 The Building Envelope as a Climate Modifier
7.5 The Role of Seasonal Health Policy
7.6 South Islington: A Case Study
7.7 Conclusions
Acknowledgements
References
8 What is Hindering Adaptation to Climate Change in English Suburbs, and What
Would Help Facilitate Action?
Overview
8.1 Introduction
8.2 What is the Suburban Retrofitting Problem?
8.3 Hot in the Suburbs?
8.4 How Does the Current Literature Explain Why Retrofitting Might Happen?
8.5 Conclusions
References

9 The Value of Foresight and Scenarios in Engineering Liveable Future Cities
Overview
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Retrofitting the Underworld
9.3 The Foresight Future of Cities Project
9.4 Scenarios
Acknowledgements
References
Part III: Steering and Navigating Sustainable Urban Transitions
10 Urban Sustainability Transition
Overview
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Transitions as the Analytical Starting Point for Addressing Urban
Transitions
10.3 Sustainability Transitions in Urban Areas
10.4 A Transition in the Urban Built Environment?
10.5 Transition Project ‘Energiesprong’
10.6 Transition Management and the Built Environment
10.7 Outlook: Transitioning the City?


References
11 Presenting Futures
Overview
11.1 Introduction
11.2 UCL’s Grand Challenges
11.3 London 2062
11.4 Conclusions
References
12 Framing New Retrofit Models for Regenerating Australia’s Fast Growing Cities

Overview
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Current State, Future Trajectories and Retrofitting Challenges for
Australia’s Largest Cities
12.3 The Challenge of Regenerative Urban Transition
12.4 Greyfield Infill Redevelopment
12.5 Towards a New Model for Residential Precinct Regeneration
12.6 Conclusion
Acknowledgements
References
13 City regional Futures in Context
Overview
13.1 Introduction
13.2 City Futures as Guiding Visions
13.3 How Can We Use City Visions to Understand City Futures of Tomorrow?
13.4 Exploring Visions of Cities in Context: Cardiff 2050
13.5 Concluding Remarks
References
14 National Policies for Local Urban Sustainability
Overview
14.1 Introduction
14.2 Four National Sustainable City Programmes in Profile
14.3 Comparative Observations
14.4 Conclusions
References
Part IV: Overview of Key Themes from the Book


15 Conclusions and Reflections
Overview

15.1 Introduction
15.2 Critical Factors for Successful Urban Retrofit Transition
15.3 Summary: Foresight for a Tomorrow’s World of Cities
References
Index
End User License Agreement

List of Tables
Chapter 03
Table 3.1 Examples of conceptual frameworks used in energy efficiency research.
Table 3.2 Summary of interviewee groups.
Table 3.3 Suggested definitions for retrofit and refurbishment.
Chapter 04
Table 4.1 List of interviewees.
Chapter 05
Table 5.1 Characteristics of extensive and intensive green roofs.
Table 5.2 Barriers and drivers to green roof retrofit.
Chapter 06
Table 6.1 Emission factors used in the model. The factor for electricity refers to the
grid average at the start of the period modelled, and changes throughout according
to the chosen scenario.
Chapter 07
Table 7.1 Dwelling types and population percentages for those in social or private
housing in London, from the 2010–2011 EHS.
Table 7.2 Building fabric modelling input data for the modelling case study
building (1960s high rise).
Chapter 08
Table 8.1 Likelihood of overheating in six neighbourhoods in England under
different climate change scenarios (based on average summer temperatures).
Table 8.2 Rationalities for adopting/not adopting retrofit actions.

Table 8.3 Retrofit actions related to overheating and acceptability by residents in


focus groups.
Table 8.4 Plausible socio technical response to overheating issue in suburban
England.
Chapter 09
Table 9.1 Findings from the Birmingham Eastside Urban Regeneration Project
(Rogers et al. 2008, see www.esr.bham.ac.uk).
Chapter 12
Table 12.1 Current and emerging best practice system performance at building,
precinct and metro scale.
Chapter 13
Table 13.1 Retrofit 2050 national visions.
Table 13.2 Scenarios’ summary and indicative indicators.
Chapter 14
Table 14.1 Participant cities in the Indian Eco Cities programme.
Table 14.2 The 20 key areas of engagement in the Grille EcoQuartier.
Table 14.3 Main implementation phases of EcoQuartier programme.
Table 14.4 Japan’s national Eco Model City programme, and related FutureCity
initiative.
Table 14.5 Twenty nine municipal authorities submitting funded Future Cities
feasibility studies.

List of Illustrations
Chapter 03
Figure 3.1 Multi level perspectives on transitions.
Figure 3.2 Conceptualisation of the commercial property retrofit regime.
Figure 3.3 Key commercial property retrofit technologies.
Figure 3.4 Drivers and barriers for commercial property retrofit.

Figure 3.5 Emerging niches in the commercial property retrofit regime: a multi
level perspective.
Chapter 04
Figure 4.1 Process map with performance gap issues located in process.
Chapter 05


Figure 5.1 Typical green roof section.
Figure 5.2 Bio diversity roof retrofit – University of Melbourne.
Figure 5.3 Food producing retrofitted roof – UTS Housing, Sydney.
Figure 5.4 Alumni Green roof – UTS, Sydney.
Figure 5.5 Minifie Park Green Roof – Melbourne.
Figure 5.6 Minifie Park Green Roof – Melbourne.
Chapter 06
Figure 6.1 Composition of model.
Figure 6.2 Share of different fuels in the residential energy consumption of Welsh
local authorities and Wales in (a) Cardiff City Region and (b) Wales as a whole.
Figure 6.3 Correlation between oil share in HEED main heating fuel data and total
domestic energy consumption. Each point represents a local authority.
Figure 6.4 Historical correlation between the use of oil fuel in space heating
against the share in total domestic energy at UK level. Each point represents a year.
Figure 6.5 Historical correlation between oil (and other petroleum products) use
for space and water heating at UK level. Each point represents a year.
Figure 6.6 CO2 emission savings broken down by type of building fabric measure
for each local authority.
Figure 6.7 Investment needed by 2022 in each area of building fabric measures per
local authority.
Figure 6.8 Scale of cost effective building fabric interventions for the Cardiff City
Region domestic sector in the high (a) and low (b) fuel cost scenarios.
Figure 6.9 Split of cost effective instances, investment and carbon emission savings

potential between different types of building fabric measures for the Cardiff City
Region.
Figure 6.10 Estimated cost for space heating in 2017 in the high fuel cost scenario.
Figure 6.11 Projected emission factors for space heating in the local authorities of
the Cardiff City Region for the high fossil fuel cost scenario.
Chapter 07
Figure 7.1 Simulated average screen temperature at 1.5 m height (°C) from 26 May
to 19 July 2006 across the Greater London Authority.
Figure 7.2 What CRISP survey respondents considered constitutes a heat wave
(size of bubble indicates number of respondents who chose this temperature).
Figure 7.3 Comparison of how many windows CRISP survey respondents open in


the daytime and at night.
Figure 7.4 The CRISP follow up case study building.
Figure 7.5 Standard floor plan of the CRISP follow up case study modelled
building.
Figure 7.6 Exceedance of overheating thresholds in the living room of the mid floor
flat of the CRISP follow up case study modelled building during the summer
period under the 2050s Medium emissions 50th percentile UKCP09 scenario.
Figure 7.7 Temperature and PM2.5 indoor/outdoor (I/O) ratios in the bedroom of
the mid floor flat of the CRISP follow up case study modelled building during the
three hottest consecutive days of the 2050s Medium emissions 50th percentile
UKCP09 scenario.
Figure 7.8 Multi layer London heat vulnerability risk mapping.
Chapter 08
Figure 8.1 Plotting control over housing versus likelihood to directly benefit from
adaptation to overheating for 2011 (derived from Census of Population). HRPs,
household reference persons.
Chapter 10

Figure 10.1 Interaction between different scale levels.
Figure 10.2 Transition ‘X curve’.
Figure 10.3 The alternative retrofit regime visualised.
Figure 10.4 Principle of the ‘stroomversnelling’: sales price and expected sales price
according to builders will exceed cost through industrialisation of retrofit.
Chapter 12
Figure 12.1 Actual and projected population growth of Melbourne by geographic
zone.
Figure 12.2 Innovation arenas for establishing greyfield precincts.
Figure 12.3 Fishermans Bend (foreground) adjoining Melbourne central business
district (rear), Docklands (rear left) and greyfields housing in City of Port Phillip
(right margin).
Figure 12.4 Surrey Hills station potential transit oriented development
visualisation.
Figure 12.5 Transport corridor redevelopment: (a) Maribymong Road, Maribymong
study area, currently; and (b) possible future.
Figure 12.6 Regeneration of public housing and adjoining neighbourhood,
Melbourne. Before (a) and after (b). Various micro interventions were proposed


ranging from planting vegetables on the nature strip to calming traffic, expanded
verges, and reclaiming the space of the street as community sports courts.
Figure 12.7 Residential zones in middle suburban Melbourne depicting existing
residential property with high redevelopment potential indexes (RPIs) in 2015
(>80% market value in the land).
Chapter 13
Figure 13.1 Retrofit 2050 national visions: (a) Smart Networked City; (b) Compact
City; and (c) Self Reliant Green City.
Figure 13.2 The Retrofit 2050 visions and possibility ‘spaces’.
Figure 13.3 Cardiff 2050: city regional scenarios for urban sustainability:

Connected Cardiff; (b) Compact Cardiff – Wilderness Valleys; and (c) Orchard
Cardiff City Region.
Figure 13.4 Locating the Cardiff 2050 visions.


Retrofitting Cities for Tomorrow's World
Edited by
Malcolm Eames
Cardiff University
Cardiff, UK
Tim Dixon
University of Reading
Reading, UK
Miriam Hunt and Simon Lannon
Cardiff University
Cardiff, UK


This edition first published 2018
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List of Contributors
Hera Antoniades
Faculty of Design Architecture and Building
University of Technology Sydney
Ultimo
Australia
Niloufar Bayat
School of Built Environment

University of Salford
Salford
UK
Sarah Bell
Professor of Environmental Engineering
Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering
University College London
Gower St
London
Robert Cowley
Lecturer in Sustainable Cities
Department of Geography
King’s College London
London
Michael Davies
Professor of Building Physics and the Environment
The Bartlett, UCL Faculty of the Built Environment
Central House
London
Carla De Laurentis
Welsh School of Architecture
Cardiff University
Bute Building, Cathays Park
Cardiff, UK
Tim Dixon
School of the Built Environment
University of Reading, Reading
UK
Malcolm Eames (retired)
Welsh School of Architecture

Cardiff University


Bute Building, Cathays Park
Cardiff, UK
Aliki Georgakaki
Welsh School of Architecture
Cardiff University
Bute Building
Cathays Park
Cardiff, UK
Rajat Gupta
Director of the Oxford Institute for Sustainable Development (OISD)
Low Carbon Building Group.
School of Architecture
Faculty of Technology
Design and Environment
Oxford Brookes University
Headington Campus
Gipsy Lane, Oxford
Miriam Hunt
School of Social Sciences
Cardiff University
Glamorgan Building
Cathays Park
Cardiff, UK
Simon Joss
Professor of Science & Technology Studies
Department of Politics & International Relations
University of Westminster

London
Andrew Karvonen
Urban and Regional Studies
KTH Royal Institute of Technology
Stockholm
Sweden
John Kolm Murray
Energy Strategy & Advice Manager
Energy Service
Islington Council
London
Simon Lannon
Welsh School of Architecture


Cardiff University
Bute Building
Cathays Park
Cardiff, UK
Derk Loorbach
Professor of socio economic transitions
Dutch Research Institute for Transitions (Drift)
Rotterdam
The Netherlands
Anna Mavrogianni
Lecturer
The Bartlett, UCL Faculty of the Built Environment
Central House
London
Peter W. Newton

Centre for Urban Transitions
Swinburne University of Technology
Melbourne
Australia
Chris Rogers
School of Engineering
University of Birmingham
Birmingham
UK
Graeme Sheriff
School of Built Environment
University of Salford
Salford
UK
Ian Smith
Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance
University of the West of England
Bristol
UK
Will Swan
School of Built Environment
University of Salford
Salford
UK
Jonathon Taylor


Senior Research Associate
The Bartlett, UCL Faculty of the Built Environment
Central House

London
Allan Teale
Faculty of Design Architecture and Building
University of Technology Sydney
Ultimo
Australia
Paul van der Kallen
Faculty of Design Architecture and Building
University of Technology Sydney
Ultimo
Australia
Sara J. Wilkinson
Faculty of Design Architecture and Building
University of Technology Sydney
Ultimo, Australia
Katie Williams
Director, Centre for Sustainable Planning and Environments
Architecture and the Built Environment
University of the West of England
Bristol
UK


Biographies
Hera Antoniades is a Chartered Tax Advisor and a Registered Valuer. She is a member
of the Tax Institute, the Australian Property Institute (API), the Australian Institute of
Building (AIB), and a Fellow of the Commercial Education Society of Australia. Her
industry experience includes specialist engagement with accounting and taxation matters
related to the built environment. Her research and publications are focused within the
built environment discipline, and include property taxation, forensic trust accounting,

occupational licensing, tenancy legislation, strata management, and governance
compliance. She is a member of government advisory boards and various professional
committees. She is also the President of the Pacific Rim Real Estate Society 2014 2016,
which is an academic society providing a formal focus for property researchers.
Niloufar Bayat is a RIBA qualified architect and has worked on the delivery of
numerous new built housing projects in the UK. She is currently a researcher with
particular interests in low carbon housing retrofit and Sustainable Architecture. She is
pursuing a doctorate in the School of the Built Environment at the University of Salford
focusing on issues concerning the design and construction interface in deep retrofit.
Sarah Bell is Professor of Environmental Engineering at University College London
(UCL) and Director of the UCL Engineering Exchange, which facilitates community
engagement with engineering research. She is a Chartered Engineer who completed her
PhD in Sustainability and Technology Policy at Murdoch University in Australia in 2004.
Her research focuses on the relationship between engineering, technology and society,
particularly applied to the sustainability of urban water systems. She is a Living With
Environmental Change Research Fellow, funded by the Engineering and Physical
Sciences Research Council.
Robert Cowley is Lecturer in Sustainable Cities in the Department of Geography at
King’s College London, and works as Project Coordinator for the ESRC funded SMART
ECO research programme. Previously, he was the Network Coordinator for the
Leverhulme Trust funded international research consortium Tomorrow’s City Today An
International Comparison of Eco City Frameworks. His PhD thesis, completed at the
University of Westminster, explored the public dimensions of conceptualised and
implemented ‘eco city’ initiatives. He has lectured internationally and co authored several
publications on eco cities and urban sustainability.
Michael Davies is Professor of Building Physics and Environment at University College
London (UCL) and the Director of the Institute for Environmental Design and
Engineering (IEDE). IEDE pursues a deeper understanding of the part played by choices
relating to buildings and the urban environment in tackling some of the greatest
challenges facing humankind, in areas such as health, human well being, productivity,

energy use and climate change. He is also Director of the Complex Built Environment
Systems (CBES) Group at UCL, an ESPRC Platform Grant funded group with a major
focus on the Unintended Consequences of Decarbonizing the Built Environment. He has


published widely and led a series of large, collaborative research projects; the outputs of
this body of work have impacted on a range of relevant key national and international
policy formulations.
Carla De Laurentis is currently completing an EPSRC doctorate study that investigates
how place and context specific conditions influence the mobilization of resources,
governance capabilities and actor networks in energy transitions. She has worked as a
researcher for Cardiff University since 2002. Since joining the Welsh School of
Architecture in April 2011, she has worked on the EPSRC project Re Engineering the City
2020 2050 Urban Foresight and Transition Management, investigating sustainability
transitions at city region level. During her research career she has gained extensive
knowledge and expertise in innovation, local and regional development and clustering
dynamics in high technology sectors (particularly renewable energy, ICT and new media).
Her current research interests lie within the study of innovation, energy policy, renewable
energy and sustainability transitions. She has contributed to a number of publications
exploring the role of regions in the dynamics of innovation and transformation of the
energy sector towards sustainability.
Tim Dixon is Professor of Sustainable Futures in the Built Environment at the
University of Reading. With more than 30 years' experience in education, training and
research in the built environment, he leads the Sustainability in the Built Environment
network at the University of Reading and is co director of the TSBE (Technologies for a
Sustainable Built Environment) doctoral training centre. He led the Urban Foresight
Laboratory work package of EPSRC Retrofit 2050 and is currently working with local and
regional partners to develop a 'Reading 2050' smart and sustainable city vision which
connects with the UK BIS Future Cities Foresight Programme. He is also currently
working on a smart cities and big data project for RICS Research Trust. He is also a

member of the international scientific committee for the national 'Visions and Pathways
2040 Australia' Project on cities.
Malcolm Eames (now retired) held a professorial chair in Low Carbon Research at the
Welsh School of Architecture, Cardiff University, and was the Principal Investigator for
the EPSRC Retrofit 2050 project. With an academic background in science & technology
policy and innovation studies, his research interests focused on the interface between:
S&T foresight; low carbon innovation; socio technological transitions; and, urban
sustainability. He previously led the EPSRC’s Citizens Science for Sustainability (SuScit)
project and was formerly Director of the BRESE (Brunel Research in Enterprise,
Innovation, Sustainability and Ethics) Research Centre at Brunel University.
Aliki Georgakaki is a Mechanical Engineer specializing in energy and sustainability,
was a Research Associate at the Welsh School of Architecture at Cardiff University. She
has experience in performing techno economic assessments on the implementation of
new energy technologies. In 2007 she was co recipient of the JRC IE Award for
Outstanding Scientific Contribution to the Institute for modelling work on ‘The Evolution
of the European Fossil Fuel Power Generation Sector and its Impact on the Sustainability


of the Energy System’.
Rajat Gupta is Professor of Sustainable Architecture and Climate Change, Director of
the multi disciplinary Oxford Institute for Sustainable Development (OISD) and Director
of the Low Carbon Building Research Group at Oxford Brookes University. He is an
appointed member of the EPSRC and ESRC peer review colleges. He also advises
government at senior level and is on the boards of several key organizations and task
groups internationally and nationally. He has advised UNEP on sustainable social
housing, UNFCCC on CDM methodology for energy efficiency measures for buildings,
UN Habitat on Green Buildings, and the British Council on Cities and climate change. In
2013 he was voted as one of 13 international building science stars and joined the
Building4Change’s Virtual Academy of Excellence.
Miriam Hunt is a PhD student at Cardiff University, where her work is concerned with

social inclusivity and the museum. She previously worked as a research assistant on the
Retrofit 2050 project based at the Welsh School of Architecture, Cardiff University,
during which time she explored sustainability and socio technical transitions in the built
environments of South East Wales and Greater Manchester, as well as questions of equity
in energy systems. Her academic interests include sustainable regeneration, and social
and economic development and inclusiveness.
Simon Joss is Professor of Science & Technology Studies at the University of
Westminster (London), and co director of the International Eco Cities Initiative. His
research addresses the governance of, and policy for, environmental, economic and social
sustainability, with special focus on urban innovation and development. He is the author
of numerous research articles and books, including Sustainable Cities: Governing for
Urban Innovation (2015). He is coordinator of the Leverhulme Trust funded
international research network Tomorrow’s City Today: An International Comparison of
Eco City Frameworks, and co investigator of the ESRC funded SMART ECO multi centre
research programme on smart cities.
Andrew Karvonen is Assistant Professor of Urban and Regional Studies
KTH Royal Institute of Technology. His research bridges the social sciences and design
disciplines by combining ideas from urban planning, human geography, and Science and
Technology Studies to explore the social, political, and cultural aspects of urban
sustainable development. His 2011 research monograph, Politics of Urban Drainage:
Nature, Technology and the Sustainable City, was honoured with the John Friedmann
Book Award from the Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning.
John Kolm Murray is the Seasonal Health and Affordable Warmth (SHAW)
Coordinator in Islington Council, working at the interface of domestic energy efficiency,
public health and social policy. He has a keen interest in both sustainable energy
generation and energy conservation, alongside environmental justice and climate
resilience. He has delivered nationally and internationally recognized programmes,
particularly the Seasonal Health Interventions Network (SHINE), recognized by the
European Commission and OECD. He has played a key role in developing local and

national policy on fuel poverty and collaborated with various academic partners on
environmental epidemiology and building design relating to extremes of temperature.
Simon Lannon is a Research Fellow at the Welsh School of Architecture, Cardiff
University who has undertaken research activities that cover the subject of computer
modelling of the built environment. The models and tools he has developed are based on
building physics principles and are used at all scales of the built environment, from
individual buildings to regional energy demand models. As a member of the EPSRC
Retrofit 2050 team Simon was a work package leader responsible for translating
scenarios into visualizations of neighbourhood case studies predicting future energy use
pathways.
Derk Loorbach is Professor of Socio economic Transitions and Director of DRIFT, the
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions, at Erasmus University Rotterdam, the
Netherlands. He was amongst the first researchers to develop the concept and approach
of transition management for sustainability since the start of his career in 2000. He
develops transition management in an iterative way; through constant interaction
between theory development and practical application in diverse social settings. It is
therefore also an example of a new form of research labelled ‘sustainability science’
which combines fundamental with action research to contribute to sustainable
development. Part of this approach is the so called transition arena: a small network of
selected innovators that reframe complex societal issues and develop alternative
strategies that lay the foundations for a much broader governance process. He has been
involved as researcher, facilitator, analyst and organizer of these arenas. His main
research focus over the last few years has been on Urban Transitions and their
Governance. He is series editor for the series Theory and Practice of Urban Sustainability
Transitions.
Anna Mavrogianni is a Lecturer in Sustainable Building and Urban Design at the
Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering (IEDE), at the Bartlett, University
College London (UCL). She has rich experience in architectural design, environmental
design consultancy and built environment research and her current research interests

include low carbon building and urban design; energy retrofit; building stock energy
modelling; indoor environment exposure and associated health risks; the impact of urban
heat islands and climate change on energy use, thermal comfort and health. Anna
regularly advises Government departments, the Greater London Authority and individual
Local Authorities on ways to improve the climate resilience of urban environments.
Peter W. Newton is a Research Professor in Sustainable Urbanism at Swinburne
University of Technology in Melbourne where he leads research on sustainable built
environments. He is involved in three Co Operative Research Centres: CRC for Low
Carbon Living, CRC for Spatial Information, and CRC for Water Sensitive Cities and is on
the Board of the Australian Urban Research Infrastructure Network. He is also a Fellow
of the Academy of Social Sciences Australia. Prior to joining Swinburne University in
2007 he held the position of Chief Research Scientist in the Commonwealth Scientific &


Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). His most recent books include: Transitions.
Pathways Towards More Sustainable Urban Development in Australia (2008);
Technology, Design and Process Innovation in the Built Environment (2009); Urban
Consumption (2011); and Resilient Sustainable Cities (2014).
Chris Rogers is Professor of Geotechnical Engineering at the University of Birmingham.
He researches urban sustainability, resilience and futures, with specific interests in utility
services, use of underground space and infrastructure systems’ interdependencies,
alongside more specific aspects of pipelines, roads and trenchless technologies. He leads
EPSRC’s £10 m Mapping (now Assessing) the Underworld programme, alongside a £10 m
programme on future cities, notably the EPSRC funded Urban Futures and Liveable Cities
consortium grants exploring how future cities might deliver urban resilience. He chairs
the Innovation & Excellence Panel and Futures Group at the Institution of Civil
Engineers, and is a member of the Foresight Future of Cities Lead Expert Group.
Graeme Sheriff is Research Fellow and Associate Director of the Sustainable Housing
and Urban Studies Unit (SHUSU) at the University of Salford. He leads the unit's work on
sustainability and has published widely on energy retrofit, fuel poverty, sustainable

transport and urban food.
Ian Smith is a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance
at the University of the West of England. He writes and researches on the processes of
urban change on a range of themes from urban regeneration to climate change adaptation
responses from the perspectives of regions, communities and neighbourhoods. He led on
the work exploring resident responses to the climate change challenge in the SNACC
project. Currently he is leading on JPI funded work understanding self organized climate
change responses across Europe (SELFCITY).
Will Swan leads the Applied Buildings and Energy Research Group (ABERG) which he
established at the University of Salford in 2011. ABERG is home to the Salford Energy
House, a whole test house within an environmental chamber, which has undertaken
ground breaking work on retrofit and controls. He has a background in industry focused
research, previously being sustainability and performance measurement lead at the
Centre for Construction Innovation before establishing ABERG as a multi disciplinary
research group. He has undertaken research projects for the EPSRC, EU, Innovate UK and
a wide number of commercial clients in the energy and buildings sector.
Jonathon Taylor is a Senior Research Associate in Indoor Environmental Modelling at
the Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering (IEDE), at the Bartlett,
University College London (UCL). He has a background in biology and geomatics and his
PhD examined the long term damp and microbial risk in London following flooding by
combining microbiological modelling from lab based experimentation, hygrothermal
building simulation, and GIS mapping. Prior to joining the Bartlett in 2012, he was a
Research Associate in Resilient Infrastructure and Building Security in the Department of
Civil, Environmental, and Geomatic Engineering at UCL, where he researched the
consequences of biological attacks on buildings using indoor air quality models and


laboratory work. He has also worked in industry in both construction and space syntax
modelling.
Allan Teale is a registered Valuer/Licenced Real Estate Agent and is an Associate

member of the Australian Property Institute (API). He has over 30 years of experience in
the property industry, which includes civil works, Commercial/Residential and Industrial
Sales and Leasing. He is presently undertaking a PhD where the research focus is
Transparency in Governance in the delivery of Transport Infrastructure in NSW by way of
Public Private Partnerships. He is also an aboriginal Australian a member of the
Wiradjuri people from western NSW, originally from the Nyngan area, in the state of
NSW.
Paul van der Kallen, who originally qualified as a Valuer, holds master degrees in
Property Development and Education and is a member of the Australian Property
Institute (API). His industry experience encompasses the public and private sectors,
including roles with the NSW Department of Planning, NSW Roads & Traffic Authority,
corporate real estate and specialist valuation firms. His valuation and consultancy
experience includes Sydney CBD, metropolitan commercial and industrial sectors,
development site acquisitions and property divestment. He has developed numerous
courses for institutional property groups, statutory authorities, professional associations
and corporate real estate operators. In 2015 he completed an industry training
programme relating to the impact of energy efficiency and other sustainability measures
on commercial property value in Australia.
Sara J. Wilkinson is a Chartered Building Surveyor, a Fellow of the Royal Institution of
Chartered Surveyors (RICS) and a member of the Australian Property Institute (API). She
has worked in UK and Australian universities. Her PhD examined building adaptation,
whilst her MPhil explored the conceptual understanding of green buildings. Her research
focus is on sustainability, adaptation in the built environment, retrofit of green roofs, and
conceptual understanding of sustainability. She sits on professional committees for RICS
to inform her research and ensure direct benefit to industry. Her research is published in
academic, professional journals and Best Practice Guidance Notes to practitioners.
Katie Williams is Director of the Centre for Sustainable Planning and Environments
(SPE) at the University of the West of England. She specializes in sustainable urban
environments and is known for her work on sustainable neighbourhood design (in
relation to sustainable behaviours and climate change adaptation), urban form (compact

cities) and land reuse. She has held visiting lectureships in the USA, Thailand, Peru and
the Netherlands and has authored over 100 academic papers and reports and edited 3
books on sustainable urbanism. She is a member of the International Advisory Board for
The Stockholm Centre for Sustainable Communications and a member of the Board of
the International Urban Planning and Environment Association as well as being a REF
Panel member for Architecture, Built Environment and Planning for the REF2014.


Foreword
The world’s cities cannot continue as they are. The planet and its inhabitants are changing
at an astonishing rate — and with it our cities must adapt.
Demographic shifts have brought about an explosion in the size of the word’s middle
classes. In 2000, there were one billion people on the planet who spent between $10 and
$100 a day. By 2013, that number had doubled. It looks set to reach five billion by 2030.
And with this new found wealth comes increased consumption — of energy, water, food,
land and other natural resources. Our cities are magnets for this burgeoning middle class,
and they already show the signs of its arrival, accounting for 80% of global greenhouse
gas emissions and consumption of 66% of the world’s energy.
Those numbers only look set to increase. The best predictions suggest that, by 2050, 70%
of the world’s population will be living in urban areas. But while our cities certainly create
emissions and demand energy, they are also undeniably a part of the solution.
Concentrated centres of population offer potential for efficiencies that the rural and
suburban environment cannot, from modern mass transit that beats the motor car to
combined cooling, heat and power systems that satisfy the energy needs of entire
districts.
Cities in their infancy can embrace this kind of sustainability from the start. But older
cities will need to adapt, to re engineer themselves for the future. As the editors show in
these pages, there are obstacles to be overcome in the process — but they are far from
insurmountable.
The efficiencies to which I refer are, perhaps surprisingly, easiest to capitalise upon in

some of our oldest cities. Medieval settlements that went on to become some of the
world’s most iconic cities — London, Barcelona, Rome — were created with people in
mind. Their citizens worked within walking distance of their homes; they shopped in
nearby markets; and relaxed in local hostelries and parks. These ways of life were, and
still are, inherently positive — they are sustainable, low carbon, and promote a healthy
lifestyle. The good news is that cities originally built in that state can be returned to it
easily enough.
Retrofitting provides us with a chance to refocus cities everywhere back into being
developed for the needs of humans. Many of our older cities have already started, though
the means through which it is achieved varies. To reduce car traffic in the city, for
instance, London is leveraging its market economy to make it prohibitively expensive to
drive into the centre of the city; meanwhile officials in Bogotá are achieving similar
results by making changes to the hard infrastructure of arterial road networks, replacing
five lane highways dominated by cars with pedestrian, cycle and bus lanes.
In cities developed after the arrival of the motor car, things are not so easy. Modern cities
were rarely developed with humans in mind — one need only look to North American
cities like Huston and Los Angeles, where dispersed housing and amenities demands


motorised travel. Here, the sprawl and traffic congestion represents a different series of
retrofitting challenges that need to be overcome, in order to urbanise areas that are closer
to the suburban in feel, creating walk able and cycle able downtown areas that feel as if
they were designed for citizens themselves. That might require any combination of
approaches, from redeveloping large industrial complexes and building higher density
housing, to re wilding overly developed districts to re introduce green space and
encourage healthier lifestyles.
Retrofitting these newer cities may be difficult, but it is certainly not impossible. As this
book points out, though, if our cities are to adapt to the needs of the future, a more
systemic approach is required — and that starts with governance. Traditionally, urban
development has paid little attention to global issues: planners focused on local impacts,

national government on larger scale economic concerns. But we now live in a globalised
world where local and global issues are inextricably linked. More than ever, there is a
need for both national government and city administrations to work together, thinking of
cities not as a series of discrete services — energy, transport, healthcare and so on — but
as a constellation of systems that must work together, with policies and regulations in
place to encourage them to do so.
To achieve this will also require a dramatic change in the way cities are developed, from
the skills and practices required to undertake the work to the way new initiatives are
chosen and managed during their deployment. It will require city administrations,
national governments, businesses and academia to work together, to turn cutting edge
research into practicable products and services that can help improve cities. It will need
new skills, from data science to ethnography, to be enlisted alongside more traditional
urban development approaches like town planning and civil engineering. And it demands
inscrutable economic analysis and forecasting, to ensure that future developments
represent the kind of investment opportunities that external bodies are willing to pursue.
None of this is straightforward, and in this book we see just that: the light and dark of
urban development, both now and in the near future. Some chapters reveal the promising
work being carried out in cities across the world; others point out that retrofitting is still
often hindered by needless complexity and conservatism. Ultimately, of course, we need
to ensure that these kinds of learnings are fed back into the system as quickly and
efficiently as possible, helping shape current and next best practice for urban
development so that cities everywhere know what works and what does not.
Fortunately, many cities are waking up to this need. That is perhaps best demonstrated by
an increasing number of urban innovation centres — such as Future Cities Catapult, of
which I am Chairman of the Board of Directors. At these organisations, city
administrations, researchers and businesses can come together, to share experiences,
identify best practice and imagine and develop the cities of the future. They can reflect on
the kinds of works described in this book, ascertain what the best approaches are, and
champion them around the world. That way, our cities can be adapted in a way that makes
them work more effectively — for all of us.

Sir David King
The Foreign Secretary's Special Representative for Climate Change and Chairman of
the Board of Future Cities Catapult (2013–2017), Partner, SYSTEMIC (from 2017)