Ước lượng hàm cầu tiền thực cho việt nam hàm ý chính sách từ kết quả so sánh được

64

Pham Dinh Long & Btii Quang Hien, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 28(1) 64-83

Iro.c ltromg ham cau fien thkrc cho Vqt Nam:
Ham y chinh sach tir ket qua so sinh dirge
PHAM DINH LONG
Trtrong DAi hoc Mo. TP.HCM —
BUI QUANG HIEN

Ngay nhan:
10/10/2016
Ngay nha'n 10:
25/01/2017
Ngay duyet clang:
25/01/2017
Ma so:

Viec dinh Itrong ham cau tien co,y
quan trong trong viec xfic
dinh mem tang cung tien, gap phin thuc hien chinh sach tien to dat
hieu qua. Nghien cau nay trOc luvn$ ham cau tien thoc cho VN trong
giai doan thing 12/2003-12/2014 bang cac mo hinh vector hi8u chinh
sai so va hoi quy &Ong lien ket. Sau khi phan tich cac you to anh huirrig
den ham cau tien thkrc (Ml va M2) ca trong ngAn va dai han, ket qua
nghi8n ciru lam re vai tro,cfra,gia yang thkrc va ti gia thkrc da phtrang
tic &Ong manh den,ham cau Wen trong dal han. Ham cau tien thuc (Ml
va M2) chum the lc& luan la On dinh trong giai doan nghien ciru.
Abstract

1016-E4I-VOI

lit khoo:
Cu
A tien; Chinh sach tien
t8; Vector hieu chinh sai
so; Hoi quy (long li8n
ket.
Keywords:
Money demand;
Monetary policy; Vector
error correction model;
Cointegration
regressions.

The quantitative analysis of money demand meaningfully specifies
money supply growth, contributing to the implementation of effective
monetary policy. This study attempts to estimate money demand for
Vietnam between December 2003 and December 2014, using vector
error correction and cointegration regression models. By considering
the determinants of money demand (MI and M2) in short and long
terms, the empirical results verify the roles of real gold price and
effective exchange rate, which strongly and significantly affect money
demand in the long run. The other determinants, however, only have
subtle effects, concerning money demand functions, which suggests
that real money demand functions (M1 and M2) cannot be confirmed
as being stable during the surveyed period. Some policy implications
are thus recommended based on the analytically comparable results.


Pham Dinh Long & Bui Quang Hien, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 28(1) 64-83

65

1. Gioi. thieu

Trong bOi canh nen kinh te c6 nhieu bien &Ong, viec dieu hanh chinh sach tien te
(CSTT) can Oa tren nhieu co ser ca ve li thuyet fan thuc nghiem dot ket qua tot nhat.
Nhieu nghien ciru lien quan da dugc thuc hien, trong do CO mot s6 nghien cuu ve ham
cau tien. Ve Ii thuyet, ham cau tien coy nghia quan trong trong viec phan tich cac chinh
sach vi ma. Xet tren thi trutring tien te, ham cung va cau tien hinh thanh nen duang LM
trong ma hinh IS—LM, theo do, lei suet nhtr la mot kenh truyen clan cue CSTT den cac
chi so chinh trong nen kinh te. Sr On dinh cita ham cau tien gidp ngan hang trung uang
(NHTU) theo dal su bien Ong dieu chinh cung tien a mix phir hgp, tranh cac khoan
thieu but hay du thira cung tien lam lei silk bien do, ng va anh huang den cac yeu to khac.
Vi vay, van de nghien ciru nay thuang dugc chit trong va lam ca sa cho viec hinh thanh
CSTT hieu qua. Theo Sriram (1999c), nghien curl ve ham cau tien tren the giai co lich
sir lau dal vai cac nghien ciru tieu bieu ciia Fisher (1911), Keynes (1936),
Friedman(1956). Nhieu ket luan khac nhau dugc dua ra bai cac phuang phap trac luting
da clang va phong phu. Cac nghien ciru lien quan rat quan tam den van de Iva ch9n mo
hinh sao cho phu hap nhat va cap nhat cac yeu to mai ang vai tinh hinh thuc te c6 nhieu
hien dOi. Dieu nay dOi hOi can c6 cac nghien ciru tie!) theo ve viec ti'ep tuc nghien cuu
ham cau tien nham phan anh r6 hon thuc trang nen kinh te. O VN, s6 Juan cac nghien
ciru dinh luting ve ham cau tien chua dugc thuc hien nhieu. Cac nghien ciru nay chi clang
Iai a tang m6 hinh cu the, dien hinh nhu sir dung mo hinh VAR hoc VECM de phan
tich (Ha HuSrnh Hoa, 2008; Nguyen & Pfau, 2010). Ha Hujrnh Hoa (2008) chi ra Hen
lai suet tin phieu kho bac, bien su mAt gia cira d6ng n6i to tac dOng den ham cau tien.
Trong khi do, Nguyen va Pfau (2010) chi ra lei suet tien giri ngoai to va 'chi s6 cluing
khoan cling tac Ong den ham eau tier'. Ham cau tien tang duqc ket Van la On dinh trong
giai doan 1996-2006 (Ha Hujrnh Hoa, 2008) va giai doan 1999-2010 (Nguyen & Pfau,
2010).
Theo Luat Ngan hang Nha nark (NHNN)', muc ti'eu cua CSTT la On dinh gia tri Sing

tien the hien qua chi s6 lam phat. O theri diem nem 2008 va 2011, sau khi cung tien co
clau hieu dugc ma rang, chi s6 CPI ca dau hieu tang cao Ian luqt a mire 23,12%, 18,68%
(Hinh 1) nhung CSTT lei dugc that chat vao giai doan tiOp theo. Ve ti gia thuc da
phuang, NEER mAt gia 16,65% nhung REER tang gen 39,82% tinh tir thong 12/2007
class_id=l& mode=detail&document_id=96040


▪

66

•

▪

• ▪

Plum Dinh Long & Bui Quang HiAn, Top chi Mint tri&n Kinh t& 28(I) 64-83

den thing 12/2014. Gia tri REER tang Wang ducrng vii deng VND len gia (Hinh 2).
Hang h6a trong mr6c bi mat din tinh canh tranh. Ve gia yang, giai doan 2007-2011 bian
clOng manh so Wei giai doan 2003-2007 (Hinh 3)..Sau giai doan dau thau yang mieng dr.
thang 03/2013 den thang 12/2013, kat qua cho thay boat ding dau co tren thi truerng
yang da giam so vai giai doan truck. Mat bang lai suit g6m: Lai suit tin girl, lai suit
cho vay va lai suit tin phiau kilo bac cla tang len rat cao Mang frng v6i th6i diem tinh
hinh lam ph& cling tang cao a th6i diem nam 2008 va 2011 (Hinh 4). Tin dung duric
that chat lai vao nam lien sau (nam 2009, 2012) kiem cht lam phat.

a

60.00

25.00

50.00

20.00

40.00

15.00

30.00
10.00

20.00

5.00

10.00
0.00

0.00
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
IMITOc (10 tang M2 (%)

Hinh 1. Tang

CPI (%)

truing cung tin M2 (tral), chi s6 CPI (phai) giai doan 2003-2014

Ngu'on: Du lieu thong ke tai chinh quec to (IFS) dm Qu9 Tien to Quec to (IMF).
NEER_138_VN

140

REER_138_VN

130
120
110
100

lo**/

90

%.4
•10.

4r•
"10 %

So,
•

80
70
n-1

0
0
N

•

8

N
0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
N N
N. • N.
N.
01 1-1 01 N
0 1-1 0 I-I 0

Hinh 2. NEER

0
0

o0

CO
0
0
N N
▪ 1-1

0
0
0

0

0
0
0

01-I
q-I
0 0 0
N
N
N. N. N..
1-1 o-1
e-I 0 N

■■••••
-N011.1.0.0
t-1 •-1
0 0
0 0 0
N
N IN N
N. N. N. N. N.
or ‘—o
1-1

0 s-I 0 1-1 0

va REER cua VN giai doan thang 12/2003-12/2014.

Ngujn: Zsolt (2012) tinh town vi ductc cap nhet du lieu den thang 06/2015


-

Pham Dinh Long & BUi Quang Hien, Tap chi Phat tri&I Kinh t& 28(1) 64 83

67

45
Gia yang S1C trong nuot
(Trreu VND/Lucng)

35
25
15

DAu thilu yang m4ng

5
L.n
JD 0 tO n N. 00 00 CO 01 01 0 0
0.1 eV CV IV 01 1
1
1 01 .3* .7
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

I-1
■-1
000000000 0000000000000000
IN CV CV IN IN CV IN CV IN N IN CV IN IN IN IN NJ IV NJ IN IN IN IN NJ IN
"N. 'N.
0 01 CO rl JD
IT CV IN IN Ul 0 rn 03
I-I .3' 01
N IN ul 0
.-10) 0 0 0

0000

,-1 0

,-1 0000

,-1

00

00

,-1

Hinh 3. Dien bien gia yang trong nuerc giai doan thang 12/2003-12/2014.
Ngujn: Tting cuc thOng ke, Vietstocks.

—
18 — •

13

suat tien giyi (%)
suat tin phigu kho bac (%)
suat cho vay (%)
6

8

3

-- - .11

. • .....

•

•7, J.._
•••

•

•

1

M .4. .0. Lc,

14 LO to tO c... N 00 00 00 ch al 0 0 .-I t-I .-I IN IN 01 01 01 •O' '0'
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 p

l0 0 0 0 eV r1 .-I 04 .-I .-1 t-I .-I %-1 .--1 01 eV
0000000000
0000000000000000
IN CV CV CV NJ CV
CV IN IN N
IV CV IN ni IN CV NJ NI CV CV NI IN IN CV IN NJ
S. S.
'.... 5, "... N.. '....
..... '.... N....
'... '.... '... 5.... "•.... S.
".... ".... -.... \J. `... ..... -... ".... '.•..
IN L01 0 C01 03 I-I LO t-I •::t 01 N N IN Lel 0 01 03'...
.-I kJ] .-I Cr 01 IN N IN LI1 0
%-1 0,-1 0000,-1 0000,40J-40000,-1 0000 ,-1 001

Hinh 4. Lai suat tien gtri, lai suat cho vay, lai suat tin phieu kho bac ctia VN
giai doan thang 12/2003-12/2014.
Ngui3n: Da lieu thiing ke tai chinh qtaic to (IFS) caa Qu9 Tien to Quac to (IMF).

Ket qua ham cau tien dOi ltic khong ging nhau gift cac nghien cfru do có su khac
nhau trong viec lua chop bien chi phi co hqi, lua chon mo hinh trac luting hoac giai loan
nghien cuu. Tir nhu cat' thuc tien ctia dieu hanh kinh to vi mo va dien bien thuc te, nghien
cfru se phan tich cac yeu to tic dOng den ham cau tien va ix& luting ham cau tien cho


Pham Dinh Long & Ain Quang Hien, Tgp chi Phat trien Kinh te, 28(I) 64-83

68

VN giai doan thong 12/2003-12/2014 co bo sung them hai yeti to mai ve ti gia thuc da

phuang va gia yang. Nguai m6 hinh vector hieu chinh sai so, tac gia con sir dung ma
hinh hOi quy Sing lien ket. Theo Wang va Wu (2012), uu diem dm ma hinh nay giup
wan quan chuOi va hien tuang nOi sinh th6ng qua viec hieu chinh
khac phyc yen
cac he so tir ma trait hiep phucmg sai cita phan du trong dai han. Ket qua trac lucmg tir
viec hieu chinh trong m6 hinh hoi quy ding lien ket va ma hinh vector hieu chinh sai se
se duac nghien ciru so sanh va phan tich. Vai uu diem ciia m6 hinh hOi quy ding lien
ket, cac yeti to tac Ong den ham cAu tien phan anh dtroc ket qua vet ham va c6 the phat
hien them yeu to tac Ong mai. Qua do, nghien cau dua mot so khuyen nghi trong viec
hoach dinh CSTT a VN.

a

2. Ca sa li thuyet vii pinning phi') nghien min
2.1. Ca so. li thuyet via khung pluin tich
Nghien cau ham cAu tien sir dung gia thuyet thi twang tien to can bang de danh gia
trong m6 hinh uac Luang (Blanchard, 2016). mOi mac !Ai suat cho truac, duang cAu
tien cho biet cong chung muOn nam gift Wong tien la bao nhieu. Thi truing tien to can
bang khi Luang tien ma dan chung thuc su nam gift (Wong cung tien) bang vai Wong
tien ma clan chimg muen nam gift (lacing cau tien). Lucmg cau tien ducc hieu la cac tai
san tai chinh mong dal dual hinh thirc tien bao gem tien mat hoac tien gtri ngan hang.
Li thuyet cau tien duac ph& trien tirng buac ma khoi dau tir If thuyet ltrang Wen giai
trich Ong ca nam gift tien ca ban vai myc dich giao dich (Lam Chi Dung, 2009). Fisher
(1911) kitting de cap trip tiep ham cAu tien ma dua ra phtrcmg trich P.Y=M.V vai P, Y,
M, V fan hrot là mac gia, thu nhap, khOi luong tien va tic dO chu chuyen tien tg (Sriram,
1999c). Phucmg trinh viet Lai M = k. P.Y (k =1/V la he se nhan tien). Cac li thuyet sau nay
phat trier' them cac Ong ca khic la Ong co nam gift tai san de dau tu, hoac du ca. Theo
Sriram ,(1999c), Ii thuyet cAu tien tiep tuc dtroc bO sung nhung nghien cau chi chin Ii
thuyet cita Keynes (1936) va Friedman (1956) do c6 sir dyng de li giai trong phan tich ket
qua. Theo Keynes (1936, duct trich bai Babic, 2000; Kumar & cong sir, 2011) cho rang

viec gift tien c6 ba Ong ca gOm: Giao dich, du phong va dau tu tai chinh. Nguai dan mong
mu& gift tien de thuc hien cac giao dich hang ngay va sir dyng cho nhftng nhu cAu bat
nga. Hai Ong ca nay ti le thuart vai thu nhap. DOi vai Ong ca dau tu tai chinh, lai suAt
ding vai tro quan tong quyet dinh cau tien cho dau ca va ti le nghich vai nhu cau gift tien
(Kumar & cong su, 2011). Mo hinh ham cAu tien ma ong de xuat co phan biet gifta *mg


Pham Dinh bong & Rini Quang Hien, Tap chi Ph& trien Kinh te, 28(1) 64-83

69

D

tien

danh nghia va thuc te r = f(i_,Y+). Friedman (1956) clua tren li thuyet lugng tien

khi cho rang tien nhu met 14 tai san va ham cau tien chiu tac Ong bad nhftg yeu to lien
quan den nhu cau sa huu cac loci tai san khac. Li thuyet lucrng eau ve tai san cho rang day
là met ham s6 cua nhiTing tai nguyen san sang dung cho ca nhan va Igi nhuan ki vong dm
cac loai tai san khac so vai lgi nhuan ki vong cua tien te. MO hinh ham cau tien cho bai
phucrng trinh (1).
MD

—
p =

f(Yp+, rb — r„,_, re — rre _, Tre — r._)

(1 )

Trong do :
MD

„

Cau tien thuc te;

Yp: Thu nhap trong dai han;
rm: Lai nhuan ki vong cua tien te;

rb: Lcri nhuan ki vong cua trai phieu;
re: Lai nhuan ki vong cua co phieu; va

Ire: Ti le lam phat ki vong.
Nghien cuu ve Anh twang cua lai suat den su on dinh dm ham eau tien da xuAt hien
nhang tranh Wan khac nhau. Fisher (1911) va Friedman (1956) this nhan ham au tien
on dinh do the do chu chuyen tien te là on dinh. Trong khi do, Keynes (1936) chi ra ham
eau tien khong en dinh do lai suat Anh huang Ian den ham call tien (Nguyen & Pfau,
2010). Nhin chung, cau tien cep quan he nghich bien vai cac Wen phan anh chi phi ca hei
cua viec gift tien (0) va co quan he Ong bien vai bien quy m6 (S) (Ha Huynh Hoa,
2008; Zuo & Park, 2011; Dogan, 2015). Viec lua chon Wen vac) trong m6 hinh khong
chi dUng lai voi cac bien da de cap a phan tren ma con hp chon
thuc vac) dac diem
tinh hinh kinh to a moi nudrc (Alsahafi, 2009; Helmi & Ong su, 2015; Inoue & Hamori,
2009; Joseph & Ong su, 2013; Siregar & Nguyen, 2013).
Cac nghien ciru da co ve hArn cau tien a VN (Ha Huynh Hoa, 2008; Nguyen & Pfau,
2010) lay gia tri san xtdt tong nghiep hoac t6ng san pham quit nOi dai dien cho 'Dien
quy mo. Nh6m bien dai dien cho chi phi co hei thi c6 su khac biet a cac nghien dru. Cac
nghien dru a VN chua that su Old trong den v* lip ellen m8 hinh khi ket quA chi Ong

a met me hinh cu the. Nhirng diem nay se ducrc tac gia can nhic khi x'ay dung m6 hinh


70

Pham Dinh Long & Bin Quang Hien, Tap chi Phil trien Kinh te, 28(I) 64-83

nghien dm. Cu the, tac giA dua vao each tip can tir Ii thuyet ham cau tien Friedman
(1956) cho rang tien nhu mot loci tai san va ham au tien ti le nghich vii Igi nhuan ki
vong cua cac loci tai san khac so vii lgi nhuan ki vong cua tien te. Tir dO, cac bien gOm:
VN-Index, ti giA thuc da phuung, giA yang dugc dua vao mO hinh nghien eau dua theo
each tiep can nay va xem cac Wen nhu IA bien chi phi ccrh9i khi gia tien. Bien phu thuc
dugc chon IA: cung tien MI, M2; va cac bien &X lap g9m: gia tri san xuAt citing nghiep,
chi se gia tieu dung, lai suat tien girl, lai suat tin phieu kho bac, va bien ti gia (USD/VND)
dua theo nghien ciru dm HA Huynh Hoa (2008). Bien VN-Index &rye chon dua tren
nghien ciru dm Nguyen va Pfau (2010). Mac du ngutri clan i VN thulang co nhu cau gia
yang ben canh gia tien nhung tac gia chua tim thay bien gia yang trong nghien dm ham
cat' tien. Siregar va Nguyen (2013) cho rang thay doi caa ti le lam phat bang hieu cua
thay d6i cung tien danh nghia vii thay d6icau tien thuc (AR= AML -

pP). Trong do,

cau tien thuc bi anh huOng kri thu nhap (y+), lai suat tien girl (r.„-T) va lgi nhuan ki vong
cua viec gift yang (rg-) (Siregar & Nguyen, 2013). Tuy d9ng USD co the dugc nam gia
vii so lugng nhieu hem cac loci ngoai to khac nhung do VN da co quan he giao thuung
vii nhieu nuic (chang han nhu Msr, EU, Nhat, Trung Quoc, HAn Qu6c...) nen trong
nghien ciru nay, tac giA chon bien ti giA la ti gia thuc da phuung.
2.2. Plutung phap nghien cti-u
Nghien ciru sir dung phuung phap dinh lugng g9m cac kiem dinh truot h9i quy, mO
hinh vector hieu chinh sal s9 (VECM), m6 hinh hoi quy d9ng lien kat nhu h9i quy hieu

chinh toan phan binh phuung be nhat (FMOLS), hoi quy dOng lien kat Canonical (CCR),
h9i quy Ong binh phuung be nhat (DOLS).
2.2.1. MO hinh nghien ciru
Irmis = fOrgolds_,

vnindex+/ _, reer+/ _, rfidr_, rfitbr_, cpi_)

lrm2s = f(lrgolds_, Irips+, vnindex+/ _, reer+/ _, rfitbr_, cpi_)

(2)
(3)

MO hinh nghien ciru dugc thiet lap bC'ri phuung trinh (2) va (3). Ki hieu (+) hoac (-)
the hien ki vong dAu. Cac bien dugc churl sau dua vao phan co si li thuyet va nghien
cau truck. Vii gia thief MD=Ms, cung tien that M l (Irmls) va cung tien that M2 (Irm2s)
dugc ch9n lam bien phu thu9c. Bien quy mo dugc chon la gia tri san xuat Ong nghiep
thuc trong nuic (kips). Cac bien chi phi co h9i gom gia yang that trong nuic (II-golds),
chi so VN-Index (vnindex), ti gia that da phuang (reer), tai suat tien girl that (rfidr), lai


Pham Dinh 1,ong & Biti Quang Hien, Top chi !That trien Kinh te, 28(1) 64-83

71

suat fin phieu kho bac thuc (rfitbr) va chi s6 gia tieu dung (cpi).
2.2.2. Du lieu nghien eau
Ngu6n du lieu dugc thu thap trong giai doan thang 12/2003-12/2014, tir cac ngu6n
gem: T6ng cuc Th6ng ke (GSO), Quy Tien te Qu6c te (IMF), Vietstocks va Zsolt (2012).
De sir dung cho muc dich nghien ciru, tac gia chqn cac hien va dinh nghia nhung tren
Bang 1. Cac bien Irmls, Irm2s, lrgolds, kips da khir tinh mica vu sir dung bien gia mita

vu. Lai suat tien giri thuc va lai suat tin phieu kho bac thuc dugc tinh bari i r=(in—rr)/(1+n)
v6i ir, in, Ir Ian Itroi la tai suat thuc, lai suat danh nghia, ti le lam Oat va lay CPI lam chi
s6 dai dien. Tir thang 12/2003 den thang 03/2009, du lieu gia yang danh nghia khong
= gold, * 100 / chi
thu thap dugc. Tac gia ix& luqng du lieu nay theo citing thirc
s6 gia yang. Chi s6 gia yang 6* day m6 to chi s6 gia yang a thang hien tai so voi thang
Tien trait. Gia yang theo thang la gia yang dugc tinh trung binh tir gia yang cua cac ngay
trong thang.
Bang 1
M6 to cac hien, dinh nghia va ngu6n chi lieu
Ten yeu to vi ma

Ki hieu

Dinh nghia

Cung tien thuc MI

Irmls

Luang cung tien dugc ch9n IA cung
tien MI

Cung tien thuc M2

Irm2s

Luang cung tien dugc chgn IA cung
tien M2

Ngu6n du lieu

IFS tir Qtfy Tien te
Quac te.

Lai suat tien gal thuc rfidr

Lai suat huy clang tien geri thuc, trung
binh ki han 3 thang cua ban ngan hang
thucrng mai Ian o VN theo thang.

Lai suat tin phieu kho
bac thuc

rfitbr

LA lai suat tin phieu kho bac thgc, ki
han 1 nam theo thang.

Chi so gia tieu dung

cpi

LA chi s6. gia tieu dung theo thang c6
nam g6c 2010.

lrgolds

La gia yang trong nu& (gia ban)
trung binh trong thang c6 loai bo y6u Tong cuc Thong ke

to gia, hieu chinh mita vu va lAy va Vietstocks
logarith to nhien.

Gia yang thuc


72

Pham Dinh Long & Bui Quang Hien, Tap chi Plait triAn Kinh 28(1) 64-83

Ten yEu to vT ma

Ki hiau

Dinh nghia

Ngu6n dft lieu

Gia tri sari xuat tong
nghiep thuc

(rips

Li gia tri sin xuit cua town nganh
tong nghiap trong nuarc trong thing
co loaf bo yeu to gia, hiau chinh mita
vu vi liy logarith to nhien.

Tong cuc Thong k8

Chi so VN-Index

vnindex

Chi s6 VN—Index la chi so dung cua
trung binh trong thing, co dang phin Vietstocks
trim.

Ti gia that da phucmg reer

Ti gia thuc da phtrang ducra tinh Ung
vai r6 hang h6a cila 138 ntr6c c6 giao
dich ngoai thuong yeti VN theo thing.

Zsolt (2012) tinh
toan va dtrqc cap
nhat dvlieu cl8n
thang 06/2015

Ket qua th6ng ke mo to cac bien cua mo hinh trong giai (loan thang 12/2003-12/2014
ducfc minh hog trong Bang 2. Trong tap da lieu chua bien d6i, piing s6 quan sat la 133
va khong co quan sat nao bi thieu. Dan vi tinh cho hien gia tri la VND. Ket qua cho thy
cac bien du lieu d'eu co sit hien Ong Ian qua d6 lech chuin. Ching han, gia yang SJC
co gia tri trung binh 23.500.000 VND/Itrung nhung d6 lech chitin lai Ian
12.100.000VND/luong. Giai loan 2011-2012, gia yang tang manh the hien a gia tri Ian
nhit 44.600.000 VND/luomg. Chi s6 VN-Index co gia tri cao nhAt khoang 1.110 diem
phin tram phi' hop vii thoi diem thi truing chimg khoan tang vao cac thang trong !lam
2007. Lai silk tien girl, lai suit tin phieu kho bac cling tang cao phi hop v6i dien bien
lai suit trong nAm 2008. Do chi s6 CPI c6 nam gOc la !lam 2010, gia tri nhe nhit (51,8)
va I6n nhit (144,8) lin !trot roi vao thang 3/2003 va thang 8/2014 (gin th6i gian v6i ram

g6c) nen khi tinh trung binh chi s6 CPI a VN cho ket qua nh6 hcm 100. Dua ket qua, gia
tri cua cac bien du lieu the hien mot cach hop li, s6 quan sat day du, do do co the tin
hanh cac bu6c tier, theo.
Bang 2
Ket qua th6ng ke mo to
BF&

S6 quan sat

Trung binh

D6 lech chuAn

NhO nhAt

Lem nhit

ml

133

5,04x1014

2,69x10'4

1,57x10"

1,20x10"

m2

133

1,99x1015

1,32x10"

3,78x10"

5,02x10"


Pham Dinh Long & Bui Quang Hien, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 28(1) 64-83

73

Bien

Sa quan sat

Trung binh

DO lech chuan

Nho Mit

Lan nhat

gold

133

23500000

12100000

7923848

44600000

ip

133

8,03x10'3

5,39x10'3

2,09x10'3

2,32x1014

vnindex

133

483,2438

206,9747

164,9674

1110,986

reer

133

101,0071

0,1221009

100,8086

101,2978

fidr

133

8,856887

2,977005

4,92

17,16

fitbr

133

7,523451

2,895747

3,34

15,6

cpi

133

95,73148

31,18521

51,83432

144,8551

3. Ket qui va thin luin
Dau tien, tac gia kiem tra tinh dirng caa da lieu bang kiem dinh Augmented DickeyFuller (ADF). Ngoai ra, kiem dinh ADF c6 x8t den tinh pha vet cau frac cang dugc sir
dung de khang dinh them cho ket luan tir ADF ve kiem tra tinh dung. Ket qua cho May
tat ca cac bien deu dirng a sai phan bac I (Bang 3) NM kh6ng c6 su khac biet giira hai ket
qua kiem dinh tinh dung. Day la dieu kien tien quyet that hien hei quy deng lien JCL
Qua kiem dinh, cac tieu chi FPE, AIC, HQIC, SBIC deu ang he de tre 2 la dO tre pha
hop caa me hinh (Bang 4). Sau khi chen dugc de tre pha hop, ket qua kiem dinh to
tucmg quan Johansen cho May tem tai mtii quan he dai han din tai giUa cac hien trong me

hinh (Bang 5). Day la ccr sa tiep tuc that hien !lei quy and hinh da de xuat.
Bing 3
Ket qua kiem dinh nghi'em dun vi
Kiem dinh ADF
Bien

Kiem dinh ADF co xet tinh pha va cau trilc

Sai phan

Sai phan

Sai phan

bac 0

bac 1

bac 0

Irmls

-2,582

-5,920*1

-3,812

2/2011

-8,845*1

2/2008

Irm2s

-2,854

-7,474*1

-4,475

12/2006

-7,724*1

2/2008

Irgolds

-0,522

-7,859*1

-3,569

2/2011

-10,484*1

6/2006

!rips

-1,959

-13,315*1

-4,081

11/2010

-13,576*1

8/2011

vnindex

-2,532

_6,587*1

-5,458

11/2007

-7,895*1

3/2007

Thing

Sai phan
bac 1

Thang


74

Pharn Dinh Long & Bin Quang Hien, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 28(1) 64-83

Kitm dinh ADF
Bitn

Kiem dinh ADF có xet tinh phi va cAu tr(ic

Sai phan
b4c 0

Sai phan
bac 1

Sai phan
bac 0

Thang

Sai phan
1

Thang

reer

-2,334

-8,89151

-3,379

7/2010

-9,92651

12/2008

rfidr

-0,518

-10,3425'

-3,728

12/2007

-14,997*'

1/2007

rfitbr

-0,923

-7,5325'

-3,261

2/2008

-10,2145 '

7/2008

cpi

-2,220

-4,7585'

-3,205

11/2010

-6,35151

9/2010

7

Ghi chi): Zt a mac ji nghia 1%, 5%, 10%,
1% = -4,022 (*'), 5% = -3,443 (55), 10% = -3,143 (*10)
1% = -5,57 (51), 5% = -5,08 (*5), 10% = -4,82 (*10)
Bang 4
Ke't qua Ira chon do tra toi uu
tre

DO,

LR

0

FPE

AIC

HQIC

SBIC

6,55313

24,583

24,655

24,7603

1

2781,6

7,60E-09

4,01216

4,66072

5,60833*

2

223,63

3,7x1095

3,27081*

4,49586*

6,2858

3

93,37

4,90x109

3,53926

5,34081

7,97307

4

100,86*

6,40x109

3,74963

6,12767

9,60227

Bang 5
K.tt qua kitm dinh dang lien kt Johansen
Gia tri a

Gia tri a

mac 5/ nghia 5%

mac y nghia 1%

212,0584

170,8

182,51

0,43647

136,9243*'

136,61

146,99

2

0,27784

94,282855

104,94

114,36

3

0,233

59,5332

77,74

85,78

4

0,16278

36,2584

54,64

61,21

5

0,1177

19,8535

34,55

40,49

Max rank

Gia tri Eigen

Thang ke Trace

0

-

1

Ghi chic (*1), (*5) In lucrt twang ang voi cac mac y nghia 1%, 5%.


Pharr Dinh Long &Bill Quang Hien, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 28(1) 64-83

75

3.1. Ham cdu tin thuc MI
Trong ngin han, 1(61 qua cAu tien thuc MI chiu tac Ong bai cac bien vnindex, reer,
rfitbr va cpi (Bang 6). M6 hinh VECM cho thAy ton tai mOi quan he trong ngAn hp vai
he s6 dm ECT(-1) am va c6 y nghia thong ke. Khi cAu tien thuc MI tech khoi gia tri can
bAng thi trong ki ke tiep cua cAu tien thuc MI se dieu chinh tang khoang 3,4% d6 Zech
de dat duqc mix can bang. Phucmg trinh Irmls trong ngan han duqc viet 14i:
LIIrmls = -0,0340634 ECT(-1) + 0,06I 7752 Alrmls(-1) + 0,0471475 1llrgolds(-1)
+ 0,0270579 L\Irips + 0,0001469 Xvnindex(-1) + 0,4521859 Lreer(-1) -0,0007669
Arfidr(-1) - 0,0058979 Arfitbr(-1)- 0,0211578 Acpi(-1) + 0,0157713
Bang 6
Ket qua cAu tien thuc M1 trong dai han
Bien

He s6.

Hi?' lech chuAn

Gia tri p

-0,0340634

0,0167926

0,043*

Alrm1s(-1)

0,0617752

0,0852173

0,469

Alrgolds(-1)

0,0471475

0,0829781

0,570

Alrips(-1)

0,0270579

0,0206414

0,190

Avnindex(-1)

0,0001469

0,0000563

0,009***

freer(-1)

0,4521859

0,2108798

0,032**

Arfidr(-1)

-0,0007669

0,0019962

0,701

Arfitbr(-1)

-0,0058979

0,0024104

0,014***

Acpi(-1)

-0,0211578

0,0042211

0,000***

Wang s6

0,0157713

0,0042211

0,000***

ECT(-1)

Ghi cha:*,**,*** ran lugt Mang irng voi cac mirc y nghia 10%, 5% va 1%

Bi6n gia yang thuc khong coy nghia th6ng ke trong ngAn ban. 6 mot so thi diem
gia yang tang cao, ngtroi dan d6 xo di mua yang do sq yang tang gia. Tuy nhien, nhu cau
nay chua chAc duqc dap Ung du vi nhieu Ii do. Nghien dru cho rang Ii do c6 the den tir
ngu6n cung yang trong nude chua dit dap tang kip, tir viec han the lugng yang ban ra de
ch6 gia yang tiep tuc tang hoac ChInh phu trAn an tam II nguel dan ve viec se on dinh
d6ng not te, quan II chat the thi true:mg yang.

76

Phgm Dinh Long & Bdi Quang Hien, Top chi Phit trien Kinh te, 28(1) 64-83

Khi thi trading chang khoan tang diem, nhu cau gia den cua cua nguiri dan chi tang
rat nhe (0,01469%). Theo Friedman (1956), cAu tien nghich bien vii suit sinh lqi ki
vong cua co tirc. Tuy nhien, ket qua nay gitmg vii Oat hien dm Nguyen va Pfau (2010).
Tac gia cho rang niem tin dm ngtroi dan vao thi truing chang khoan VN chua that so
yang chic. Trong ngan han, nha du to c6 the ch6t khoan den 161 thay vi chi tra co tac.
Khi chang khoan tang diem, au v6' tien cua ngudri clan se c6 xu huang tang len. Ngoai
ra, c6 the la do quy mo thi truing chang khoan VN con nho (v6n h6a thi tru&ng chang
khoan/GDP dual 40% theo lily ban Chang khoan Nha mac thing 11/2016), s6 lugng
nguari dan gia tai san dudri dang chang khoan con chua nhieu nen c6 the din den hien
tugng nay.
Bien ti gia thuc da phucmg tic do, ng mph va cling chieu len au den thuc MI a mac
nghia 5%. Bi'n nay dugc xem la bien chi phi co hOi cua viec gia tien va c6 ki vong
ngtroc chieu vii au tien. Tuy nhien, theo cach tiep can thay the tai san, ngtrai dan se
mu6n nam gia nhieu tai san hon khi dong not to mit gia. Hang h6a trong nuac se re hon
so vii hang Ma nuac ngoai. De co the mua dugc nhieu tai san trong nuac bang d6ng
not to nhieu hon, ngudri dan se tang nhu cAu gia den bang d6ng not to (Ha Hujmh Hoa,
2008).
Bien lai suit tien gui thrc khong co y nghia thong ke. Theo quan diem Friedman, cau
tien &roc cho la it nhay cam vii lai suit. Ngu6i dan luon mong mu6n co lai suit thuc
ducrng khi gui tien. Trong dieu kien lam phat a VN c6 giai doan tang cao, lai suit thuc
se am, do dO, hien Wong by thanh khoan (Liquidity Trap) c6 the xay ra. Hien Wong
nay &roc hitt' khi NHTLf nal long CSTT nham ha !Ai suit va kith thich kinh to nhung
khong dat dupc. Khi tai mot giai han nao do, NHTIf c6 gang born den tang len bao
nhieu di nua thi lai suit ding kh6ng the giam hon. CAu den theo lai suit co xu hu6ng co
gian hoan toan. Ngoai ra, viec NHNN ap tran 'Ai suit huy (ging cling co the lam cho mac
d'6 hAp clan cua viec gui tiet kiem bi giam di.

GiOng vii ket luan dia. Freidman (1956), bien la' suit tin phieu kho bac there co j
nghia th6ng ke di. mac 1% va c6 m6i quan he nghich bien vii au den thuc MI. Tac do, ng
nay la khi nho do kenh dAu to nay co rliri ro rat tik). Rut ro cang thap thi mac d6 hap
clan ve suit sinh lqi ki vong ding cang thap. Do do, c6 the giai thich tai sao tic clOng nay
it anh hudmg den nhu cau gut den dm ngirdri dan.
Bien chi s6 gia tieu dung c6 m6i quan he trai chieu vii cau den thuc Ml. Nghien tiro
chon MI la cau den hp. Nhu cAu ve den MI therng cho yAu la moc dich giao dich, so


Pham Dinh Long & Biii Quang Hien, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 28(1) 64-83

77

vai muc Bich dAu ca va du phong. Vi day la eau tien that Ml nen c6 the lam phat tac
dOng y6u den call tien.
Trong dai han tit ket qua h6i quy so sanh dugc, cac bien a cac mo hinh deu coy nghin
thong ke. Mac dO giai thich dm m6 hinh DOLS (97,1%) cao nhAt so vai cac m6 hinh
VECM (40,7%), FMOLS (84,1%), CCR (86,9%) (Bang 7). Dip vao mac y nghia, mac
clO giai thich mo hinh va dAu ki v9ng, m6 hinh CCR cho ket qua tot nh'At. M6 hinh hei
quy 'ling lien ket c6 hieu chinh cac he s6 th6ng qua ma tran hiep phuang sai cua phAn
du trong dai han, c6 the khac phut van de tuang quan chu6i, hien tucmg nOi sinh (Wang
& Wu, 2012). Dieu nay c6 the Ii giai vi sao 1(61 qua mo hinh VECM kh6ng tot han cac
ket qua a mo hinh h6i quy d6ng lien ket. Ket qua cho thay c6 them bien gia tri san xuAt
coring nghiep that Lac do, ng len cau tien that MI. Quy m6 san xuAt ding nghiep tang Ian
thi nhu cau gift tien cfla ngueri dan cang tang theo (Ha Huynh Hoa, 2008). Tuy nhien, lai
suat tin phieu kho bac thuc lai ding Nen vai cau tien that Ml khac vai ket Juan cua
Friedman (1956). Trong mot thi trutrng tien to can bang, neu ngual dan c6 nhu cau nam
gift luting tien it km luting tien ma 119 aux su co thi 119 se mu6n nam gia nhieu han cac
loai trai phieu, tit d6 lam gia trai phieu tang. Khi gia cac loai trtii phieu tang thi lai suAt
se giam xuong. Bien gia yang thuc nghich bien vai cau tien that MI trong dai han. Dieu

nay dung nhu ki v9ng ma nghien eau da dua ra va la phat hien mai cua nghien cau nay
so yeti cac phat hien truac day cita Ha Huynh Hoa (2008), Nguyen va Pfau (2010). Khac
trong ngin han, Wen ti gia thuc da phucmg cho ket qua nghich bien cau tien that MI.
Dieu nay cluing to ngtroi dan c6 xu huang gift it tien han khi tiring nOi tg bi mat gia.
Tren thuc te, tai VN yang va ngoai to dugc xem la hai kenh chinh de du phong song
song vai viec gift tien nen cho ket qua tac dOng Ian. Phuong trinh ham cau tien thuc MI
trong dai han dugc vi6t 10:
Irm1sCCR = 105,9 — 0,245 Irgolds + 0,282 Irips + 0,00031 vnindex — 0,753 reer —
0,0245 rfidr + 0,0117 rfitbr — 0,00757 cpi
Bang 7
Ket qua cau tien thuc MI trong dai han
VECM

FMOLS

CCR

DOLS

Irmis

Irmis

km 1 s

Irmis

—0,4595683**

—0,242***

—0,245***

—0,147*

(0,2336489)

(0,0510)

(0,0520)

(0,0840)

Bien
Irgolds


78

Phom Dinh Long & Bin Quang Hien, Top chi Phan trien Kinh te, 28(1) 64-83

VECM

FMOLS

CCR

DOLS

Irmis

Irmis

Irmis

Irmis

0,5403968***

0,282***

0,282***

0,324***

(0,2014496)

(0,0360)

(0,0478)

(0,0860)

-0,0013442***

0,000308***

0,000310***

0,000412***

(0,0001489)

(2,93e-05)

(3,45e-05)

(6,40e-05)

-4,324238***

-0,772***

-0,753***

-0,441

(0,914772)

(0,163)

(0,199)

(0,380)

0,0843073***

-0,0245***

-0,0245***

-0,0383***

(0,009864)

(0,00197)

(0,00235)

(0,00397)

-0,1001702***

0,0117***

0,0117***

0,0278***

(0,0107419)

(0,00209)

(0,00250)

(0,00460)

-0,0089349**

-0,00745***

-0,00757***

-0,00738***

(0,0049226)

(0,000995)

(0,00111)

(0,00192)

395,3594

107,8

105,9

71,31

131

132

132

129

0,3782

0,841

0,869

0,971

Bien
Irips

vnindex

reer

rfidr

rfitbr

cpi

Hang so
SO quan sat
R2

Ghi chit: DO lech chuan dtmc trong clan ( ).
*, **, *** In Itrot twang img veri cfic mac j, nghia 10%, 5% va 1%

3.2. Ham cdu tien thvc M2
Trong ngan han, me hinh VECM van cho thay c6 m6i quan he trong ngan han khi xet
cho twang hop eau tien thkrc M2 (1-le s6 ctla ECT(-1) am va co 3', nghia th6ng ke). T6c

dO hieu chinh ye can bang trong dai han dm eau tien thkrc M2 charn han so vai cau tien
thkrc Ml. Phuang trinh trong ngan han &Tic vier lai:
Alrm2s = - 0,0093823 ECT(-1) + 0,3788643 LtIrm2s(-1) + 0,0378465 Alrgolds(-1)
- 0,0059791 Alrips(-1) - 1,23e-07 Lvnindex(-1) + 0,4357892 freer(-1) - 0,0023811
Arfitbr(-1) - 0,0139992 Acpi(-1) + 0,0121702
Trong dai han, mo hinh CCR cho ket qua tot nhat vbi s6 hien coy nghia thong ke,


Pham Dinh Long & Bid Quang Hien, Tap chi Phit trien Kinh te, 28(1) 64-83

79

dau ki v9ng va mac dO giai thich y nghia cita mo hinh (R2). Ket qua cho thay gia yang
thuc, ti gia thuc da phuang khong co m6i quan he vgi cau tien thuc M2. Bien gia tri san
xuAt citing nghiep thuc, chi s6 vnindex van c6 tac dOng ding chieu va lai silk tin phieu
kho bac dux, chi s6 gia tieu dung c6 tac idOng ngugc chieu vai cAu tien thuc M2. Phuang
trinh ham cau tien thuc M2 trong dai han dugc viet Igi:
Irm2sccR = 39,12 - 0,0321 Irgolds + 0,206 Irips + 0,000181 vnindex - 0,0918 reer 0,0143 rfitbr - 0,00581 cpi
Bang 8
Ket qua cAu tien thuc M2 trong ngan han
Bia'n

He s6

D6 la.ch chuan

-0,0093823

0,0167987

0,576

Alrm2s(-1)

0,3788643

0,0916015

0,000***

Alrgolds(-1)

0,0378465

0,0736611

0,607

-0,0059791

0,0197422

0,762

,avnindex(-1)

-1,23e-07

0,0000499

0,998

1ireer(-I )

0,4357892

0,1875344

0,020**

Arfitbr(-1)

-0,0023811

0,0020533

0,246

Acpi(-1)

-0,0139992

0,0041164

0,00l***

Hang s.6

0,0121702

0,0037056

0,001***

ECT(-I)

Alrips(-1)

Gid tri p

Ghi chit: *,**,*** Ian WO tmmg Ong voi cdc muc 5/ nghia 10%, 5% va 1%

Bang 9
Ket qua cat' tien thuc M2 trong dai hp.
Bia'n
Irgolds
Irips

VECM

FMOLS

CCR

Irm2s

Irm2s

Irm2s

Irm2s

1,191325***

-0,0295

-0,0321

-0,195

(0,2537973)

(0,0660)

(0,0676)

(0,202)

-0,9199653***

0,202***

0,206***

0,318*

DOLS

(0,2135979)

(0,0464)

(0,0604)

(0,182)

vnindex

0,0004825***

0,000182***

0,000181***

8,39e-05

(0,0001522)

(3,70e-05)

(4,27e-05)

(0,000126)

reer

6,625071***

-0,110

-0,0918

-0,904

(0,9861726)

(0,210)

(0,254)

(0,823)

rfitbr

0,0502971***

-0,0141***

-0,0143***

-0,0183***

(0,0030224)

(0,00123)

(0,00131)

(0,00468)

cpi

0,0230532***

-0,00561***

-0,00581***

-0,00744*


80

Pham Dinh Long & Bin Quang Hi6n, Tap chi Ph& triln Kinh 28(I) 64-83

VECM

Bi611

I-dng s6
S6 quan sat
R2

Irm2s

FMOLS
Irm2s

Irm2s

CCR

DOLS
Irm2s

(0,0053437)

(0,00127)

(0,00142)

(0,00430)

—698,8036

39,12
132

120,7

131

41,06
132

0,3495

0,970

0,975

0,985

*,**,*** lArt lugt trong img voi cac mirc y nghia 10%, 5% va

Ghi

129

1%

3.3. Kam tra tinh on dinh aria ham cdu tien thuc MI va M2
01111.114

0

Hinh 5. Ket qua kiem dinh CUSUM, CUSUMQ cho cAtt tien thuc MI
0.41001■004/441

0
20140112
Ulm

2040112
Ntre

huh 6. Ket qua kiem dinh CUSUM, CUSUMQ cho cAu tien dux M2
MOt me hinh du bao dang tin clay thi cac he s6 trac ItKrng trong dai han can thoa dieu
kien khong co su Wen dOng. Dip vao cac he so, kiem dinh CUSUM se tinh toan phan
du tich lily, sau do so sanh vOi gia thuyet Ho la cac he st, hOi quy On dinh. Neu gia tri

tinh toan vuoi qua gia tri thong ke a mirc y nghia cho truck thl ket lua'n la khong On dinh
va ngugc lai. Bing kiem dinh CUSUM, chi co ham cAu tien M2 the hien su on dinh
trong giai doan nghien cfru. Ham cAu tien M I c6 \fact ra khOi giai han tren vao cac thang
a giai doan cu6i. Bing kiem dinh CUSUMQ, ham cAu tien MI va M2 deu cho ket qua


Pham Dinh Long & Bui Quang Hien, Tap chi Ph& trien Kinh te, 28(1) 64-83

81

kitting on dinh. Ket qua nay khac ket luan cua nghien ciru truac khi cho rang ham au
tien a VN on dinh. Li do c6 the den to viec Itra chon hai nham bien chinh (Wen quy mo,
hien chi phi ca hOi, trong d6 c6 gia yang va ti gia that da phuang). Ngoai ra, giai doan
nghien dru khac co the din den ket qua nay.
4. Ket Wan va ham 5, chinh sach
De giai quyet cac van de Tat ra, tic gia da sir dung m6 hinh vector hieu chinh sai s6
va mo hinh hOi quy dOng lien ket de phan tich cac yeti t6 anh huang den cat' tien thuc
M l , cau tien that M2 ca trong ngan han va dai han. Ngoai cac yeti t6 anh huang da duct
tim thay a nghien ciru truac, ket qua chi ra tic Ong manh va trai chieu cua gia vang va
ti gia that da phtrang den ham eau tien that Ml va M2. Ngoai ra, ham cau tien MI va
M2 chua the hien tinh 6n dinh trong dai han qua ca hai kiem dinh CUSUM, CUSUM
binh phtrang. Dua vao ket qua so sanh dugc, tic gia dua ra met s6 khuyen nghi nham
nang cao hieu qua trong qua trinh dieu hanh CSTT.
Thzi nhdt, them mot yeu t6 mai so vai nhang nghien cdu da c6, lc& qua chi ra gia
yang c6 tic dOng manh va trai chieu vai ham cau tien thuc chi trong dai han. Dieu nay
ham y trong thei gian ngan gia yang c6 len cao thi Ngan hang Nhantrac (NHNN) cung
chua can phai v i yang can thiep ma NHNN nen tang cuing thong tin kip thei nham 6n
dinh tam Ii cua nguai dan. Trong dai han, thi twang yang bat 6n se chic chin se anh
huang Ian den cau tien. Viec can thiep vao thi truing yang cua NHNN la c6 ca se va
can thiet. MOt s6 tranh luan ve hoat Ong dau thAu yang chin dung nhieu rill ro trong

truing hap gia yang the giai bat nga giam sau ma NHNN van gift lucmg yang Ian, chuan
bi (tau that,. Chinh sach nay chi nen that hien trong truing hap that can thiet. Thay vao
da, NHNN c6 the can nhac cac bien phap hanh chinh de han the tinh trang yang h6a nhu
quy dinh mire lai suit khi giri yang a cac NHTM, quy dinh cac giao dich dan sty c6 lien
quan den yang, kiem soat chit viec bu6n lau yang...
Thu hai, ket qua thtrc nghiem cho thay tic Ong manh cua ti gia that da phuong
vai ham cau tien thuc. Dieu nay ham y rang viec 6n dinh ti gia nen dugc can nhic uu
tien trong CSTT ca trong ngan han va dai han. NHNN kh8ng nen dOng thai sir dung
tong cu ti gia va cac ding cu khac de tang cung tien. Viec ti gia tang trong thai gian dai
mai that su clang ngai han so vai viec tang ti gia trong mot thai gian ngan. Trong ngin
han, ti gia tang se kith thich cau tien tang len de c6 the mua dugc nhieu hang hoa trong
nuac vai gia re hen. Trong dai han, cac nha lam chinh sach can than trong gift viec xac


82

Pham Dinh Long & Biii Quang Hien, Tap chi Phat trien Kinh te, 28(1) 64-83

dinh tiem nang xuAt kitAu trong nuerc vai viec xac dinh mire do can thiep vao ti gia. Cau
tien se c6 xu twang giam khi ti gia tang. Khi ngu6n luc dm nen kinh to chua clugc cai
thien thi xuAt kitAu cung kho co the tang dugc. Trong khi do, cung tien lai tang khong
dung vai mac tang caa cau tien se lam ap luc lam phat tang cao.
Thu. ba,t6c dO dieu chinh cua ham cau tien co bien Ong la thap. Dieu nay cho thay
thi truerng tien to se to dieu chinh ve can bang se tra nen kh6 khan hon khi cac yAu t6 vi
and co lien quan den ham cau tien co dau hieu bien dOng. Chinh sach 6n dinh vi m6 cda
Chinh phis an la dieu can thiet, giup thi truerng tien tg khong bi bat on th6i gian dai■
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