Biến đổi khí hậu toàn cầu và vấn đề đặt ra đối với Việt Nam

BIEN DOI KHI HAU TOAN CAU VA
VAN DE DAT RA DOI V d l VIET NAM
TS. Tl^N

H6NG

HA

Oy v!§n Ban Chdp hinh Trung aang BSng
Bi tradng Bi Tii nguyin vS Mdi trudng

Biin dil khi hiu li vin di toin ciu, li thich thiec nghiim tr^ng nhit dil
vdi nhin io^i trong Vii kfXXI. Vlit Nam ii mit trong nhimg quic gia bi inh
huong n^ng ni nhit fi> bJ4n dii khf h$u, ci vi chfnh tri, Mnh ti - xa hii va
quic phing - an ninh. Vi thi, chu ding dng phi v&i biin dii khf h$u a nu&c
ta li vin di quan frpng, cap thiit.

B:

IEN doi khi h|u vi no 1 ^ dng phd toin
:^u

Trong qui trinh phit trifin, biln ddi khi
hgu (do phat thii khi nhi kinh giy ra) li mft
ttong nhiing van de an ninh phi truyfin thong,
de dpa tdi su tdn vong eua toan nhan logi.
Theo Td chdc Khi tupng thl gidi, ndng dp khi
nha kinh ttong khi quyen nam 2015 da vupt
qua nguong 400/10^ thl tich; trong khi dd,
gidi hgn an toin ciia ehi sd nay la 350/10^ thfi
tieh. Cdn theo bio cio ciia Nhdm Cdng tic vfi

Ca sd khoa hpe thude Ban lifin chinh phu ve
bifin ddi khi hiu (cfing bd ngay 27-9-2013) thi
ndng dg cae khi nhi kinh ttong khi quyfin da
khdng ngiing gia tang; ttong dd, ndng dg khi
CO2 (giai dogn 2005 - 2011) da tang 40% so
vdi nam 1750. Nhift dd bl mgt trai dit tang
nhanh, ttong giai doan 1901-2012 da tang
O.gg'^C; rieng giai dogn 1951
2012 tang
khoing 0,72°C. Dilu dd dupe thl hifin d so
ngay, dem ianh/nam giam, sd ngiy, dem v i
dpt ning ndng/nam tang len ro rft. Muc nude
biln trung binh eua thl gidi cung cd xu thl
tang ttong sudt thl ky XX, vdi mde ting binh
quin 1,7 mm/nam (giai doan 1900 - 1992) v i
3,2 mm/nam (giai dogn 1993
2010). Vfi

lugng mua, cae viing ed sd dpt mua ldn tang
nhieu ban sd vung cd sd dpt mua ldn giim.
Cic con bao mgnh xuit hifn ngay mpt nhifiu,
nhit la nhiing sieu bao, vdi sue gid chua timg
cd ttong Hch sd nhan loai.
Dfi cdu trii dit - ngdi nhi chung cua cac
the hf hdm nay vi mai sau khdi thim hpa biln
ddi khi hau, ngiy 12-12-2015, Thda thugn ve
khi hau da dupe 196 ben thdng qua tgi Hpi
nghi lih thu 21 cic ben tham gia Cdng udc
khung eua Lien hgp qude vl biln ddi khi hiu
(COP 21) tai Pa-ri (Phip). Day ia Thda thugn

danh dau budc dot pha quan ttpng ttong no lyc
eua Lien hpp qudc sau hon 2 thap ky, nhim
thuylt phyc chinh phu eae nudc hgp tic dfi
giim lupng khi thii gay d nhifim, hgn chl gia
tang nhifit dp ciia ttii dat. Td day, se md ra
mpt ky nguyen phit trien mdi ttfin toin eau ky nguyen phit trien phat thii cic-bon thap,
vdi cic md hinh sin xuit, tieu dung than thifn
vdi mdi trudng; han chl, tiln tdi xda bd sd
dung nhifin Hfu hda thach, thuc day phit trifin
nang lupng sgch, ning lupng tai tao. Qui trinh
iy cd sy tham gia tieh cue ciia cae thinh phin
ttong xa hpi, tu eac nhi hogch dinh chinh sach,
nha khoa hpc, cdng nghf, giio due, boat dpng
TAP CHl QUdC PHdNG TOAN DAN S 6 8/2016

9 f

^


vin hoi, doanh nghifp, ci xa hdi va cgng
dong, v.v.
Nhimg vin dl d$t ra dli vdi Vift Nam
Vift Nam la mpt ttong nhiing quoc gia
dang phat trien v i la nudc dl bi tdn thuang
dgc bift do tie ddng cda biln ddi khi hau gay
ra. Theo kich bin bifin ddi khi hgu eho Vift
Nam phifin bin 2016' cho tiiiy, nhift dp ttfin
cic vung, mien eua nudc ta diu cd xu thl tang
so vdi thdi ky eo sd (1986 - 2005), vdi mde

ting ldn nhit d khu vyc phia Bac. Nfiu theo
kieh ban trung binh (RCP4.5), nhifit dp trung
binh/nam ttfin toin qudc giai dogn 2016 2035 cd mde tang phd bifin tu O.d^C - 0,8°C.
Cdn theo kich bin cao (RCP8.5), nhift dp
tiung binh/nam d nudc ta vao dau thl ky XXI
ed mde tang phd bien tu 0,8''C - IjI^C. Ngoai
ra, nhift dd thip nhit trung binh va eao nhit
tiung binh d ca hai kjeh ban trfin diu cd xu
the tang len.

kich ban cao, cic sl lifu cda cac thdi diem
hrang dng lin lugt li 25 em v i 73 em. Dy
bao, nlu myc nudc bifin dang I m v i khdng
cd cie giii phip dng phd, khoing 16,8%
difn tich ddng bing sdng Hong, 1,5% difn
tich eae tinh ven bifin mien Trung (td Thanh
Hda din Binh Thugn), 17,8% difn tich ttianh
pho Hd Chi Minh, 38,9% difn tieh ding
bing sdng Ciru Long cd nguy ca ngip chim
trong nudc.
Trudc tmh hinh dd, nhimg nim qua. Dang
v i Nhi nude ta ludn coi bifin doi khi hau la
vin dfi song cdn dli vdi quoc gia, dan tdc; tit
dd, tgp trung lanh dao, chi dgo eae cap, nganh,
dia phuang, lye lugng tich eye, chu dgng ung
phd tten mat ttgn niy, dgt nhilu ket qui quan
ttpng. Ve nhgn thirc, Vift Nam da sdm tham
gia Cdng udc khung cua Lifin hpp qude vfi
bifin ddi khi hgu (Cdng udc khi hgu), NgU
dinh thu Kyoto. Dae bift, ngiy 22-4-2016,

Vifit Nam da eung 175 qude gia ttfin thfi gidi
ky Thda thu^n Pa-ri tgi Niu-Y-ode (My). Ciing
vdi dd, nhieu hogt ddng tuyfin truyen, phi
bifin, giio dye nang eao nhin thde ve biln dli
khi hgu dupc thyc hifin. Qua dd, nhan thde cua
eie eap, nginh, dia phuang vi toin din vfi
bien ddi khi hgu cdng nguy co tic dpng eda no
ddi vdi cic lmh vye ddi sing xa hpi tdng budc
dugc nang cao.

Ve lugng mua, du bao se tilp tye tang tten
pham vi toan quoc. Theo Idch bin trung binh,
lugng mua trung binh/nam vao dau thl ky nay
ed xu thfi tang d hau hit ci nudc, phd biln tu
5% - 10%; vao giua thl ky cd muc tang tu 5%
- 15%; trong do, mpt sd tinh ven bien dong
bing Bic Bp, Bic Trung Bf, Trung Trung Bf
cd thl tang tten 20%. Theo idch ban cao,
lupng mua trung binh/nam cd xu thl tang
tuang ty nhu kich ban trung binh. Dang chu y
li vao cudi the ky, mde tang nhieu nhit cd thl
Ifin tdi ttfin 20% va dupc phin bd d Bie Bp,
Trung Trung Bp, mdt phin Nam Bp va Tiy
Nguyfin. Trong do, lupng mua 1 ngiy ldn nhit
va 5 ngiy ldn nhit ttung binh ed xu thl ting tu
40% - 70% (phia Tiy Tay Bic, Ddng Bic,
dong bang Bic Bf, Bic Trung Bd, Thda Thifin
- Hufi, vung Nam Tay Nguyen vi Ddng Nam
Bp). Cie khu vye khic cd mde tang phd biln
tdl0%-30%.

Vi the che, chinh sdch, mpt sd vin bin
quy phgm phip lugt lifin quan dfin dng phd
vdi bien ddi khi hiu da dupc ban hinh, nhu:
Luit Dfi dieu; Lu^t Sd dyng tilt kifm v i hifu
qui nang lupng; Phap Ifnh phdng ching lyt,
bao; Chien lupe quic gia phdng, ehong vi
giam nh? thifin tai, Luat Bio vf mdi tiudng
(nam 2014), Chiln lupc qudc gia vfi bifin doi
khi hiu, Chifin luge tang ttudng xanh, v.v.
Chinh phd da thinh lip Uy ban qudc gia vfi
bien doi khi hiu, hinh thinh dan vj diu mli d

Ve myc nudc biln ding ttung binh d Vift
Nam cd khi nang eao hon muc trung binh
toin eiu. Theo kieh ban trung binh, dfin nam
2050 li 22 em; nam 2100 li 53 cm. Theo

1 -_ Kich b&n niy c6 sii dung so li§u ciia 150 trpm
quan trie tren dat l i ^ vk Mi SAo; s6 l i ^ myc nuoc b i ^
cua 17 trjim hSi van v4 ciia ky thuat do d^c tir v§ tinh; sii
dyng kit qua cfip nh^t cdc mo hlnh khi h^u t o ^ ciiL
TAP CHl QU6C PHdNG TOAN DAN S6 8/201S


Trung uong de thyc hifn nhifm vy quin l;y
nhi nudc ve lmh vyc niy.
Vi4c trien khai thifc hi?n cdc hogt dgng
thich img vd gidm nh? phdt thdi khi nhd kinb
cd nhieu chuyfin bien tieh eye. Theo dd, kieh

ban bien doi khi hgu, nudc biln ding da duge
xay dyng, thudng xuyfin cip nhit v i cdng bo.
Chuong tiinh myc tifiu qudc gia ve biln doi
khi hgu dugc triln khai thyc hifn va da dgt
duge ket qui bude dau. Chuang ttinh hd ttg
dng phd vdi biln ddi khi hiu (SP-RCC) da xay
dung ttfin 300 npi dung chinh sich, huy dpng
eho ngin sich nhi nude gan I tJ USD. Vifc
nghifin cdu, dinh gia tic dpng cua biln ddi khi
hgu dfin mdt sd lmh vue, lim ca sd dl xiy
dyng ke hogch hanh ddng dng phd thudng
xuyen dupc chu trpng. Nang lyc dy bio, cinh
bio, td chdc thuc hifn ciing difiu kifn, phuong
tifn phdng, ehdng thien tai d eae khu dan cu,
nhit la tgi cae viing cd nguy ea eao vl thien tai
dupc nang Ien mpt budc mdi. Cae chuang
trinh, dy in ve tiet kifim nang lupng, sd dyng
nang lugng mdi, tai tao (nang lugng gid, mgt
ttdi, nhifin lifu sinh hpc) cdng cic hoat dpng
giim nhp phit thii khi nhi kinh dupe trien
khai tieh eye. Vifc thuc hien Chuong trinh
giim mit v i suy thoii rung, nhim gift khi
nang hap thy khi nha kinh cua he sinh thai
rimg budc diu phat huy hifiu qui. Ngoii ra,
Viet Nam da sdm xay dyng bio cio Ddng gdp
dy kiln (do qudc gia ty quyet djnh) vi trinh
Ban Thu ky Cdng udc khi h|u vio thing 92015. Theo dd, chdng ta cam kit giim 8% so
vdi kich bin phit trien thdng thudng (BAU)
vao nam 2030 vi cd thl tang len 25% nlu cd
hd ttp tieh eye tii cfng ddng qudc tfi.

Ciing vdi kfit qui dgt dupe, thdi gian tdi,
viee thue thi Thda thuin Pa-ri vda md ra thdi
ca cho nudc ta ttong hgp tic dng phd vdi bien
ddi khi hgu, nhit li tao dpng lyc de chung ta
thay dli md hinh ting trudng v i eo hdi ttanh
thu cae ngudn lye (ci ngi lyc vi ngogi lyc) dfi
hudng tdi mdt nen kinh te cic-bon thip; ddng
thdi, dgt ra nhung khd khan, thach thde gay
git. Trong tuang lai gin, biln ddi khi hau se

tilp tyc tie ddng, gay h|u qui n§ng nl ddi vdi
ddi song ngudi din vi ci nen kinh te, nhat la d
eie nginh, ITnh vyc nhay cim, nhu: ndng
nghifp, lam nghifp, thuy sin va chin nudi.
Dieu dd ddi hdi chiing ta, mpt mgt can huy
ddng nhieu nguon lyc han eho thich dng vi
khie phyc hiu qui do thifin tai gay ra; mgt
khic, vSn phii no lye dam bio cic myc tifiu
tang trudng kinh tfi, an sinh xa hpi, xda ddi
giim ngheo. Trong khi dd, vifc chi phi diu tu
cho cai tiln, ddi mdi cdng nghf, phit tiien
nang lupng tii tgo dfi thay thl cho cae nhifin
lifu hda thgeh (theo cam kit) khdng he nhd,
tgo ip lyc ldn doi vdi tang trudng nen kinh te
qudc din. Ngoai ra, thye hifn nghia vy cda
mpt bfin tham gia Thda thugn, Vift Nam phii
thay doi cich thuc tiln hanh kiem ke khi nhi
kinh ciing nhu chl dp bio eao theo phuong
thde: chuyfin td muc tifiu mang tinh tuong doi
sang cic tieu chi cd tinh dinh lupng ro ring,

vdi cac tieu ehuan eao han. Dieu dd ciing se
keo theo nhu eau ldn ve ngudn lye. Diy Ii
nhiing thich thde rit ldn ddi vdi nudc ta.
Mft sl giai phip chinh
Trong thdi gian tdi, Thda thuan Pa-ri se tgo
ra budc ngoat ldn vl ung phd vdi bien ddi khi
hau tten phgm vi toin cau ciing nhu d cap
quoc gia. Dfi chung ta cd the tin dyng eo hpi,
chuyln hda thach thde, vda dim bio cac myc
tifiu tang trudng, vda tdng budc phit trifin kinh
te gin vdi dam bio quoc phdng, an ninh theo
hudng ben viing, cin trifin khai cac giii phip
ddng bp; ttong dd, tip tnmg vio mpt sd n^i
dung CO bin sau:
Mgt id, tten co sd chi ra thu|n lgi, khd khan
(khi thyc hifin Thda thuan Pa-ri) ddi vdi Vift
Nam ttong giai dogn phit trifin mdi, chdng ta
cin chu ddng xay dyng cac ke hogch, phuong
an phdng, chdng vi thich dng. Trong dd, vife
chuyfin ddi md hinh ting tnrdng cic-bon thap,
chdng chiu eao la mdt ttong nhung giii phip tit
yfiu de phat trien dat nudc nhanh hon, tdt hon,
ttinh duge bay thu nhgp trung binh khi tii
nguyen thien nhifin, nhat la than di, dau md cdn
TAP CHl QU6C PHdNG TOAN DAN S6 8/2016 11


Igi khdng nhifiu v i khdng khuyln khich su
dyng. Ding thdi, can nhin mgnh yfiu eau thay
dfii hanh vi vi ldi song cda toin xa hpi nham

hudng tdi hlnh thinh cae md hinh sin xuat va
thdi quentifiudiing bfin vftng, sd dyng tifit kifm
v i hifu qua tii nguyfin; til dd, tgo cho mdi tiiinh
vien ttong xa hpi y thde chu ddng phdng, tranh
thifin tai, ttiich dng vdi biln doi khi hgu, gdp
phan giim din ttiift hgi vfi ngudi vi tii sin.
Hai Id, chu dgng ra soat cae ca chl, chinh
sich ling vdi cic ngi dung cua Thda thugn;
trfin CO sd do, tiln hinh sda ddi, bd sung vi
ban hanh nhung co chl, chinh sich ve dng phd
vdi bifin ddi khi hau, bio dim phu hpp vdi
nhiing quy dinh mdi se hinh thanh tten quy md
toin ciu va khu vyc ttong tuong lai. Trudc
mat, can to chdc nghifin euu ky nhung npi
dung cua Thda thugn, xay dung kl hoach trifin
khai thye hifn phu hpp theo quan diem, myc
tieu va eie nhifim vy, giai phip da nfiu ttong
Nghi quylt Trung uong 7 (khda XI) vl ehu
dfng dng phd vdi biln ddi khi hgu, ting eudng
quin ly tii nguyfin va bio vfi mdi trudng.
Ddng thdi, ldng ghfip npi dung dd vio qui
trinh xay dung, thyc hien eae chiln lupc, quy
hoach, ke hogch, ehuong trinh phat trifin Vinh
tfi - xa hpi cua cic bd, nganh vi dia phuang
ngay td giai doan 2016 - 2020 dfi chuin bi cic
difiu kifin cho giai dogn tiep theo. Ve liu dai,
can chu ddng lugt hda nhiing quy dinh mang
tinh ring bupc cua Thda thuan vio chinh sach,
phap luat cda Vift Nam, tiln tdi xay dung Lugt
Bifin ddi khi hau quic gia. Cung vdi do, cin

sdm ban hinh chinh sich khuyln khich, uu
dai, ho ttg doanh nghifp ttong thyc hifn myc
tieu giim nh? phit thii khi nhi kinh theo Ig
trinh phu hgp, nham tien tdi xda bd cac chinh
sach hd ttp gia doi vdi nhien lieu hda thgeh, kl
td sau nam 2020; thuc hifn bu gia doi vdi cac
dy in phit trien nang lupng mdi, nang lugng
tii tao, nang lupng sgch, tai chl va sin xuit
difn td chit thii.
Ba Id, ting eudng vifc hiin thd, thyc thi
cie quy dinh quoc tl va diy manh tiiln khai

thyc hien chu ttuong cua Ding, ehinh saeh,
phip lugt cua Nha nudc vl dng phd vdi biln
ddi khi hgu. Tich eye nghifin edu, xay dyng
hf thong cic chi tieu v i cdng cy phyc vy vifc
dinh gia, giim sit; xay dyng va van hinh hf
ttidng bio eao thing nhat vl eac hogt dpng
dng phd vdi biln doi khi hgu eung nhu vifc
huy ddng, sd dung nguon ho ttg td Trung
uong v i dia phuong. Tang eudng vai ttd giam
sit cua cic td chuc chinh tri - xa hgi, ngudi
dan nhim dim bio tinh minh bach ttong trien
khai thye hifn.
Bon Id, diy mgnh phit trien nguon nhan
lye; hogt dpng nghifin cuu khoa hpc; phit
ttien edng nghe phu hpp dfi chuyfin doi md
hinh tang trudng, san xuat, tifiu dung theo
hudng phit thii cic-bon thip v i cich thuc
thich dng chu ddng, hifu qui vdi bifin ddi khi

hiu. Coi ttpng phit trien mpt so chuyfin
nginh khoa hpe v i cong nghf mui nhgn, nhu:
vat lifu thdng minh, chuyln hda nang lugng,
nang lupng tii tgo.
Ndm Id, tiep tuc phit huy npi lyc, ttanh thu
ho ttg qudc te dfi thuc hien eie cam kfit cua
Viet Nam. Trong do, cin khuyln khieh, uu dai,
hd ttg doanh nghifp, cic td ehde, ci nhin ting
eudng dau tu vio hogt dgng giim nhp phat thai
khi nhi kinh, chuyln ddi md hinh tang trudng
v i chu dpng thich dng vdi biln ddi khi h|u.
Sdm hoan thinh vifc nghifin edu, thd nghifm
cdng tic phit trifin thi trudng trao ddi tin chi
cic-bon trong nudc v i tham gia thi ttudng cicbon toan eiu dfi da dang hda ngudn lyc diu tu
cho ung phd vdi biln ddi khi hiu ttong nude
v i ddng gdp h; nguySn vfi tai chinh vdi cfng
ddng qudc te.
Bien ddi khi hgu li vin de toin eau vi da,
dang la thich tiidc gay git dli vdi Vift Nam.
Vi thl, thye hifn tdt cie giai phap tiren, se tgo
ca sd, tifin de vung chic de chung ta tin tudng
vifc tan dyng thanh cdng cic ca hdi va hda
giii hifu qui nhiing thieh thde do Thda thugn
Pa-ri mang lai, gdp phin phat triln dit nudc
nhanh, ben viing. •
TAP CHl QU6C PHdNG TOAN DAN S6 8/2016