Chống biến đổi khí hậu: Cuộc chiến còn nhiều gian nan

i t L

'NHlNRATHiGI0l

Chong bien doi Ichi hau:
Cuoc chien con nhieu gian nan
HOANGUYIN

"Bien ddi khi hiu" la thach thOc nghiim trgng nhi't, li mdt trong nhOng
nguy cd de dga din sO ton vong va phat trien cda nhin loai. Vi'n di nay da,
dang vi se anh hudng toan diin va siu sic tdi qua tiinh phat triin, ddi soiig
xa hdi va an ninh toan ciu. Dengan ngOa va han che cin sO chung tay, gdp
sOc cua tat ca cac qudc gia tren the gidi.
Vantfecap bach cOa bien
tfoi Ichi hdu
Theo cdc nha khoa hpc,
bie'n ddi khi hau cd the lam
dao ldn nhflng tid'n bd kinh
te - xa hpi ma t h i gidi da dat
dflde trong n h i l u thap nien
qua. Cae nghien cflu cho biet,
mdi nam bie'n doi khi hau cd
t h i lam kinh te the' gidi ton
t h i t 1,2 nghin ty USD, khid'n
hdn 4,5 ty ngfldi (khoang 64%
ddn sd' toan clu) phai sd'ng
tai cde khu vfle cd nguy ed cao
chiu hidn tfldng thdi tiet cfle
doan, nhfl h a n ban, mfla bao,
lu lut. v a hi§n nay, tinh trang
"ty nan khi hau" (nhilu ngfldi

phai rdi bd cae khu vfle b a n
han, hoac hi nfldc bien dang
cao) ngay eang cd xu hfldng
gia tang.
Theo Ngan hang The gidi
(WB), bien dli khi hau la van
d l d n giai quye't khan d p vi
hai ly do sau. Thd nhit, lUdng
90 I Sdl07

1-2015'

khi p h a t thai gay hieu flng
n h a kinh v i n dang tiep tuc
gia tang; hdn mot p h i n ba so'
loai tren Trai da't se bi tuyet
chung ndu bid'n ddi khi h a u
khdng dfldc kilm soat. Do dd,
the' gidi d n phai h a n h dpng
ngay doi vdi sU ndng ldn toan
d u . Tha hai, the'gidi se phai
ddi m a t vdi chi phi ldn hdn
nhieu trong tUdng lai - mot
the gidi ngheo ddi, b i t on va
suy thodi - neu nhflng thach
thflc hidn nay lien quan den
bid'n doi khi hau khdng dUde
giai quyet ngay tfl bay gid.
Do vdy, neu khdng k i l m
sodt va ngan chan dupe xu

hudng Trai dat ndng Ien thi
nhieu kieh ban x l u se xay ra.
N h i l u vung dat se hi chim
dudi day dai dUdng do mUc
nUde b i l n ddng cao; n h i l u
cupc xung dot, chiln tranh se
diln ra do canh tranh nguon
t a i nguydn thidn n h i e n .

Tham chi, mdt sd' chuyen gia
edn eanh bao r i n g , bie'n ddi
khi h a u cd t h i "kit lieu" qua
t r i n h toan c l u hoa khi cac
qudc gia se c h u y i n sang
khuynh hUdng hudng ndi dd
bao ton cac nguon tai nguyen
k h a n hie'm"'.
Ung phd vdi bie'n dli khi
hdu la vin de cd y nghia song
edn ddi vdi toan nhan loai.
Lien hdp quoc coi day Id mpt
trong nhiing flu tien cao nhat.
Trong didn van t^i eude hpp
d p eao cua Lien hdp quoe ve
bien doi khi hdu ngay 22-92009, Tong ThU ky Lidn hdp
quoc Ban Ki-mun chi ro; "Khi
h a u la v i n d l dia - kinh t l

(1) DSn theo: Nguyen Xuan
Thang

Nguyin Manh Hiing
(Chu bien): Mgt aid&c diem noi
b$t cua the gidi vA khu vyic nhvtng
nam diu the ky 21, Nxb. Khoa
hoc xa hSi, Rk Npi, 2011, tr. 144


-QSaSBEBSffiXSra
quan trong nhat cua the ky
XXI; nd d i l u chinh lai can
can toan c l u v l phat triln,
hda binh va thinh vUdng...
Chiing ta se phai tra mot cai
gia qua dat neii chung ta
khdng hanh dpng ngay tfl bay
gid". Tai Hpi nghi thUdng
dinh Lien hdp qudc v l bie'n
doi khi hau ngay 23-9-2014,
ong Ban Ki-mun tiep tuc nhah
manh, bien dli khi hdu la mdi
de dpa hda binh va thinh
vUdng ddi vdi hang ty ngUdi,...
dong thdi ndu ro nhiem vu cua
cac qudc gia la "dang d day d l
lam nen hch sfl".
Ben eanh dd, khdng phai
nglu nhien ma nhieu eude
tuan hdnh cua nhieu phong
trao xa hpi chdng bie'n doi khi
h|iu tren toan thd' gidi vdi cae

khau hidu, nhu "Loai ngUdi
thay ddi phong each sd'ng chfl
khdng thay doi k h i hau",
"Lanh dao the gidi phai hanh
dpng"... thfldng d i l n ra trflde
them cac hpi nghi ve bie'n doi
khi hau. D i l u do cho tbd'y
mfle dp d p t h i l t cua mdt
trong nhflng v i n de "ndng"
nha't toan cau ddi hdi cae
qud'c gia phai n h a n h chdng
hanh ddng d l tfl cflu minh.
Cudc chien chong bien tfoi
Idiih&u: Thanh cdng, han
che v i h y vong
Trong nhflng nam g i n day,
flng phd vdi bien ddi khi hau
da trd thanh mot VMI de dfldc

Nghi dinh thfl Ky-d-to (CMP
H^l nghj thiipng dinh CON 1 vcfi sU 10) dfldc to chfle tai Li-ma
thamglacHa 195 qu^fc gia se bdn vi thdo (Pe-ru) tfl ngay 1-12 deh 12thu^n nhim hgn chinhl^t dd Mi ddt 12-2014 dfldc xem la no Ifle
khdng tdng gud 2 d$ Cso vdithitil^tlin
gan day n h i t cua 196 qud'c
cdng nghl$p. din nay mdi chi c6 56 qudc
gia t r e n t h e gidi n h i m tim
gia - chidm 70% img khf thdi gdy hiiu
giai phap toan d u flng phd
dng nhd kinh chinh thitc thdng bdo hgn
nggch edt gidm khi thdi - md( ddng gdp vdi bie'n doi khi hdu. Day

ndy duac cho id chua dd dihgn chimik ciing la Hpi nghi eudi cung
tdng nhiit dd khdng qud 2ddC- m3c tnide thdi diem d e nfldc phai
tdng nhiit dd cho phip nhan logi kiem ky ket dfldc mdt hiep dinh
sodt duac cdc bOn ddi khi hdu (qud mdc mdi thay the' Nghi dinh thfl
ndy, thdm hoa thIin nhiin dugc cho id Ky-d-td. Mac du khdng cd
vugtxa khd ndng d&phd).
nhiing bude dot pha manh me
va d n rat nhilu trd ngai, nhfl
b i t dong v l ldi ich va trach
thao l u a n thfldng xuyen nhiem gifla eac nfldc, v l
trong cae chfldng trinh nghi khoan ngan quy ddng gdp hd
sfl qud'c te. Hdng loat hpi nghi trd cho eac nUdc nghdo doi
ve bien doi khi hau da dfldc to phd vdi tinh trang ndng ldn
chfle va da dat dUdc mdt sd' toan clu, v l vide tai trd cho
quy bao ve khi hdu... va so vdi
k i t qua nhat dinh.
Tai Hdi nghi thUdng dinh cac ky hpi nghi trUde la
Lien hdp qud'e v l va'n d l bie'n thUdng khdng dfla ra dupe
dli khi hdu to chfle tai Niu mpt cam ke't ehung nao cd
Ode (My) vao ngay 2 3 - 9 - tinh phap ly v l vide c i t giam
2014, cac nflde da thdng qua lupng khi thai gdy hieu iing
thda thuan quan trpng trong nha kinh, Hdi nghi l i n thfl 20
dd cdc thanh p h d v a cac quoc nay cho thdy mdt sd' tin hieu
gia tfl nguyen, cam ke't se cat tich ciie trong cdng cudc
giam Ifldng khi thai gay hieu chd'ng lai bie'n doi khi hau
flng nha kinh xud'ng 454 trieu toan clu.
t i n vao nam 2020. Ben canh
Thanh edng ldn n h a t cua
dd, eac cam k i t tai chinh cho COP-20 la cac qude gia da
cdng tae iing phd vdi bien doi thdiig nha't dupe mdt so" dilm

khi hdu cung da dfldc thdng cd ban eho dU thao Thoa
qua.
t h u a n mdi dii kid'n se dUdc
Hpi nghi l i n thfl 20 eua thdng qua tai COP-21 dUde to
Lien hpp quoc v l bien ddi khi chfle vao cuoi thang 11-2015
hau (COP-20) va Hpi nghi tai Pa-ri (Phap) vdi nhflng
U n thfl 10 eac ben tham gia ndi dung ehinh: 1- Thda
Sdl07

I 91


%5rNHlNRATH^ 61(31
thuan khi h a u 2015 se dflpe
ap dung cho tat d eac nfldc
vdi cae tru cot chinh la giam
nhe, thieh iing, tai chinh, xay
dflng va c h u y i n giao cdng
nghe, tang efldng nang luc va
minh bach trong cac boat
dpng flng phd va hd trd;
2- Tie'p tuc duy tri nguyen t i e
"traeh nhiem ehung nhUng ed
phan biet va cd xem xet deh
hoan d n h cu the ciia tiing
qud'c gia"; 3- Thuyet phuc cae
nUdc phat t r i l n hd trd tai
ehinh cho cac nudc dang phat
t r i l n d l iing phd vdi bie'n dli
khi hau; 4 - Tang eUdng trao

doi thdng tin gifla ede qud'c
gia d l ban dii thao Thoa
thugin khi h a u dUde hoan
thanh trong thang 5-2015...
Nhu vay sau hdn 20 nam,
cac cudc ddm phan quoc te' vl
khi hau da dat dupe nhiing
ke't qua ban d i u . Tuy nhidn,
theo ddnh gia cua cae nha
khoa hpe, cae eupe dam phan
v l khi hau v i n chUa dat dfldc
cae mue tieu mong mud'n v l
giai quye't bien doi khi hau
bdi lUdng phat thai khi nha
kinh v i n khdng dUdc I n dinh
theo mue tieu eua Cdng Udc
Lien hdp qud'c v l bien dli khi
h a u (UNFCCC) ma cd xu
hudng tang. Nhflng tien bd v l
giai quye't bie'n dli khi hau
tren toan d u dUde danh gia
la eham chap do cdn khoang
cdch ldn gifla nhiing cam k i t
va thflc hien tren thflc tiln.

92 I S6l07 I,'1-2015)

Theo eac n h a p h a n tich,
viee tim kie'm sfl dong t h u a n
gifla eac qud'e gia trong van

d l giam phat khi thai la vd
cung q u a n trpng. Song cho
den nay, eac nfldc v i n chfla
tim dfldc tieng ndi ehung.
Tfl cae ky hdi nghi eua Lien
hpp qud'c v l bie'n doi khi h a u
(COP) cho den cae Hdi nghi
nhdm G20, Hpi nghi G7, Hdi
nghi thfldng ehdu Au, Hdi n g h i h i n g
n a m Quy T i l n t l qud'e te'
(IMF) va WB... d i u ehfla dat
dfldc sfl dong t h u a n va chia
se trach nhiem. Sfl b i t dong
gifla cac nfldc v l ve mfle dp
d t giam, cdc cam ke't t a i
chinh eho cae nflde nghdo
ehd'ng bid'n ddi khi hau, ddng
gdp eua tflng quo'c gia cu the
trong viec phat t r i l n nguon
nang Ifldng t a i tao... v i n la
nhflng can trd khien cudc
c h i l n ehd'ng bie'n d l i k h i
h a u dudng n h u ludn trong
tinh t r a n g nfla vdi. Mac du
dupe eoi la Hpi n g h i cd
n h i l u k i t qua k h a q u a n ,
song nhiing t h a n h cdng cua
COP-20 la qua nhd so vdi
nhflng ky vpng eua cac qudc

gia trflde dd. Nhflng cam k i t
t a i ehinh h a n hep, nhflng
d i l u k h o a n dfla ra chung
chung p h a n anh tinh t r a n g
cae qud'c gia ehfla tim dfldc
t i i n g ndi ehung trong viee
cat giam Iflpng khi thai gay
hieu flng nha kinh.

Trong boi d n h dd, vide di
tdi mdt thda t h u a n qudc t ^
ehung cd tinh rang bude phap
ly manh me lam nen tang de
giai quyet v i n d l mang tinh
thdi dai nay dfldc dat ra d p
thiet. COP-21 - thdi dilm
eae qud'c gia bupe phai ky
k i t dfldc mdt hiep ude mdi
thay the' cho Nghi dinh thu
Ky-d-td se hd't b a n vdo nam
2020, dUde eho la sfl kien ldn
trong n a m 2015. Vdi tinh
cha't tong qudt va cu the, bao
dam tinh rang bupc v l mat
phap ly toan dien, hieu qua
ap dung cho ta't ea cae qudc
gia, cd hidu lUc vao nam 2020,
Hiep Udc mdi dii kien dupe
thdng qua tai COP-21 dUdc
eho la se tao ra bude t i l n mdi

trong cupc chien chd'ng biln
doi khi hdu todn d u .
Mae du khd ed t h i ndi tnide
rang Hdi nghi COP-21 ed dat
dfldc t h a m vpng hay khdng
nhiing vide tnide t h i m COP21, Trung Qud'c - qud'c gia
ddng ddn n h i t h a n h tinh
(chilm 20% dan so" Trai d i t
va phat thai 25% Ifldng khi
thai gay hidu flng nha kinh),
va nfldc chu n h a Phap ra
tuyen bd' chung v l chdng bie'n
doi khi hau, cam k i t thuc day
mpt chudng trinh ldm viee
n h a m tang cudng cac nd Iflc
cat giam lUdng khi phat thai
gay hieu flng nha kinh trUdc
nam 2020 eho t h i y "budc tien
ldn" hudng tdi vi6c dat dupe


-QBSSS

nhflng cam kit, hay cdn dadc
gpi la nhttog ddng gdp quoc
gia tfl quyet dinh (NDC). Cdc
qu& gia tfl dat mue tieu va
thdi ban c i t giam Ifldng khi
thai gay hieu flng nha kinh
cua minh.

Nhieu ehuyen gia cho r i n g
dat mue tieu 1^ ke't mdt thda
thudn toan cau v l chd'ng bie'n
dd'i khi h a u ddi hdi mot qua
trinh lau dai. Va d l iing phd
Tuy nhien, mdt sd'nha phdn hieu qua vdi bid'n ddi khi hau,
tich d o ring, d l COP-21 dat t h i gidi d n ed nhflng giai
dUdc thanh d n g , d n dinh ky phap dong bd va toan dien.
lem xdt cac cam k i t va tang
efldng thflc hien cho den khi Giii phap cho cuoc chien
muc tieu ban che sfl ndng ldn chong bien tf6i lihi lidu
toan c l u d mfle 2 dp C trd
Mpt Ik, ed d u lai nen kinh
thanh hien thflc. Song cd td' the gidi theo hfldng ben
nhflng y kien td ro bat dong, viing. C h u y i n d l i loi sd'ng,
chang ban nhfl viec xem xdt md hinh san xuat vk tieu thu
thda thuan lan dau tien se theo hfldng cac-bon t h a p ,
dien ra trflde nam 2020 hay t a n g trudng xanh. Chfldng
sau dd? Ai se la ngfldi thflc t r i n h mdi trfldng Lien hdp
Men vide k i l m ke, giam sat? qudc (UNEP) d l xuat "Gdi
Va li^u cac quoc gia cd hi ep kich thieh x a n h mdi trdn
budc phai cam k i t cdc muc pham vi toan clu", trong do
tieu eao hdn?
keu gpi cac nfldc "xanh hoa"
Gidi p h a n tieh cho r i n g , nen kinh te thdng qua viee
nhiing cam k i t ban che lUdng dinh hfldng lai d c ehinh sdch
khi thai gay hieu flng n h a phat t r i l n , d i u tfl vao linh
kfnh eua hdn 150 quoc gia vdi vfle cdng nghe saeh, nang
muc tieu han che sU ndng ldn Ifldng tai sinh, van tai xanh,
toan c l u d mfle 3 dp C, cd t h i xay dflng xanh, dieh vu nflde

se khid'n Trdi dat phai hflng va quan ly nflde, ndng - lam
chiu nhiing ddt thidn tai, ban nghiep b i n vflng. Gdi kich
han, mfle nflde bien dang cao thieh nay hien dang n h a n
wi bung phat cac dich bfnh. dupe nhieu sfl ung hp eua
Do v&y, n h a n to" quan trpng ehinh phu cdc nfldc. Do vay,
nha't ddi vdi COP-21 se la tai d u t m e nen kinh te thd'
mpt thoa t h u a n tai Hoi nghi
lich sfl nay. Ben canh dd, sU
gia t a n g a p luc cua cac to
ehfle d a n sfl budc nhflng
ngfldi t h a m gia UNFCCC
^lai dat duac thoa thuan tdn
trpng, bao ve quyen daoc tie'p
d n Ifldng thuc, thflc p h i m
Ao t i t d mpi ngfldi eho t h i y
sii ky vpng vao mdt thoa
thuan lich sfl dfldc dat ra d p
bach hdn bao gid h i t .

gOJEBSBr

gidi theo hfldng p h a t trien
nen kinh te'xanh la mdt trong
cae giai p h a p hflu hieu de
giai quylt v l h d l bie'n doi khi
hau. Sau cudc k h u n g hoang
tai chinh todn cau n a m 2008,
the gidi b i t d i u chuyen doi
sang md h i n h t a n g t n i d n g
xanh, p h a t tridn md h i n h

kinh te' ed k h a n a n g chong
ehiu vdi bie'n doi khi h a u va
p h a t thai it cae-bon. Tang
trfldng xanh dfldc xac dinh la
trpng t a m trong chinh sach
p h a t t r i e n quoed gia eua
n h i l u nUde tren the gidi. Npi
dung d a t a n g tnidng xanh
ehu ye'u bao gom cac vin d l :
san x u l t va tieu diing ben
viing; giam phat thai khi n h a
kinh va thieh flng vdi bien doi
khi hau; xanh hda cac boat
dpng san xuat kinh doanh
thdng qua phat trien cdng
nghe xanh, phdt t r i l n eae
nganh cdng nghiep cao, sfl
dung it tai nguyen, ap dung
cae bien phdp san xuat sach;
xay diing k i t d u h a t i n g ben
viing; bao ve, khai thae va sfl
dung hieu qua tai nguyen; d i
to va ap dung cac cong cu
kinh te; xay diing va thiic
hien cae chi sd'sinh thai...
Hai la, ap dung ed e h i
danh t h u l cac-bon hdn la
thUdng mai hda lUdng c i t
giam khi thai, theo do ehinh
phu mdt sd' nUdc se dUa mfle

khi thai cho phep va cac
doanh nghidp thai nhilu hdn
S6l07'(11-2015) I 93


5^NHlN RA THiCldri
Cdng Ude k h u n g cua L i l n
hdp quoc ve bie'n doi khi h a u
va cae d i l u flde qud'c td' cd
lien quan. Trong cudc hpp
cua nhdm V20 (nhdm 20
nfldc dd bi ton thfldng n h i t vi
b i l n doi khi hau) vao ngay
9-10-2015 da cam k i t tang
efldng phd'i hdp ve kinh t l ,
Bin la, thflc hien dong thdi tai chinh vdi eac h d n h ddng
cac chien Ifldc giam t h i l u thiet thfle n h i m doi phd vdi
bie'n doi khf hau va thieh flng tinh trang bie'n doi khi hau;
vdi bien ddi khi hau. De giam thuc day toan c l u hfldng tdi
thieu bien ddi khi hau, n h i l u n I n kinh te xanh, nang cao
nfldc cd xu hfldng phat trien kha nang tiep can nguIn tai
cac nguon nang Ifldng tai tao, ehinh qudc t l danh cho chong
nang Ifldng mdi, sfl dung tiet bie'n doi khi hau... Cac nflde
kiem hidu qua nang Ifldng; phat t r i l n d n tiep tue hd trd
thay ddi phfldng thfle eanh tai ehinh cho eae nfldc dang
tae ndng nghiep, thuc d i y phat trien de thieh nghi va
p h a t trien san xuat ndng giam t h i l u tac ddng eua bid'n
nghiep xanh, Ben canh dd, dli khi h$u.
n h i l u nflde dang d a u tfl
Nhfl vay, cupc chien chd'ng

nhiing khoan ldn vao viee xay
bie'n doi khi hdu edn nhieu
dflng ket d u ha t i n g phdng,
thach thfle phia trflde, ddi hdi
chong bie'n doi khi hdu; xay
thd' gidi phai t a n g efldng
dflng va thflc hien eac h a n h
trach nhiem va k h i n trfldng
dpng chien Ifldc qudc gia de
thieh flng vdi sfl ndng Ien cd nhflng quye't sach mang
toan eau, ngan ngfla va b a n tinh toan c l u va sfl d i n g tam
che tac ddng cua cac hien hiep Iflc, hdp tdc qud'e t l . 0
tfldng khi hau cfle doan. D l d p qud'e gia, moi nUde c i n
bao dam chien Ifldc thieh flng hoach dinh con dUdng di cua
hieu qua, d n huy ddng cac minh, tang cudng nhan thiic
chu t h e , cpng dong dia va nang Iflc flng phd vdi bie'n
phUdng hi anh hudng bdi biln d l i khi hau; phdt t r i l n b i n
Ba Ik, bien d l i khi h a u doi khi hau tham gia vao qua vflng, hfldng tdi n I n kinh t l
khdng ehi la van de moi trinh thieh ting.
cac-bon tha'p, tan dung cac cd
trfldng ma edn la v i n de
hpi d l doi mdi tu duy p h i t
kinh te. ddi hdi phai cd cac
N a m lA, tang eUdng hdp trien, gdp p h i n vao edng cudc
giai phap tai ehinh phfl hdp. tac qudc t l chdhg bien doi chdng b i l n doi khi hau tren
Mae du cae nfldc phat t r i l n khi h a u tren cd sd thue hien toan c l u I

h a n mfle eo the mua ban mfle
hoae quyen thai khi tfl cae
doanh nghiep thai it hdn.

Theo Giao su Gid-dep Xtight, giai Nd-ben kinh te chu
tnidng mdt d c h tiep can mdi
cho eae cuoc dam phan khi
hau, de xuat dinh gia khi thai
d e - b o n d ca'p dp toan d u , ma
moi qudc gia d the thflc hien
tren lanh tho eua minh neu
t h i y phu hdp, thdng qua cac
quy dinh mang tinh chat
rang budc, thdng qua mpt thi
trfldng khi thai hoae mpt ioai
thue cdc-bon nao dd... Sau dd
phai thiet lap mdt sac thud'
cac-bon d bidn gidi, de budc
cac nflde bude gidi san xua't
phai t r a ehi phi cho Ifldng
eac-bon thai ra cho cdc Id
hang hda n h a p khau. Mdt
p h i n cua sd' t i l n t h u dfldc d
cdc nflde phat t r i l n cd t h i
dfla vao Quy xanh danh eho
ede nflde dang p h a t t r i l n .
Ngoai ra, eac nfldc khdng dap
flng cac yeu cau giam Ifldng
khi thai se tha'y d c san p h i m
eua hp bi danh thue tai bidn
gidi, dUa tren chi phi cac-bon
qua mfle cua hp. Dd la mdt
dieu ma eae nfldc mudn dflng
ngoai thda thuan giam khi

thai phai xem xet.

94 I Sdl07

i-2015)

cam k i t tfl nay den n a m
2020 se vien trd 100 ty USD
mdi n a m de giup cae nflde
dang phat t r i l n iing phd vdi
bien ddi khi h a u nhflng theo
hao cao cua IMF va WB,
trong n a m 2015 cde nfldc
van cdn thieu 38 ty USD mdi
dat daOc cam ke't tren.