Đánh giá xu thế biến đổi khí hậu trên khu vực Tây Nguyên

N G H I 6 N CLfu-TRflOBOI

DANH GIA XU THE BIEN DOI KHi HAU
TREN KHU VirC TAY NGUYEN
IS HOANG OCfC Cl/fiNG, TS MAI VAN KHIEM
ThS VU VAN THANG, ThS N G U Y I N DANG Ni^U
V\$r\ Khoa hoc Khf tuat\q Thuy vin v^ M6\ tmo'ng

Ket qui tfnh toan cho tha'y, trung hlnh cho ca vung Tdy Nguyen, trong khodng 50 ndm
qua, nhi6t dd khOng khi trung binh ndm da tdng len khoang 0,60C. Nhi§t dd mua khO
tdng ga^n gdp dOi so vdi nhi@t dp mua mifa. Lifdng mifa mua kho, mua mifa b Tay
Nguyen deu co xu the'tdng, do do lu'tfng mifa nam da tdng khoing 1 0 % trong 50 ndm
qua. Dd'i vdi cac chi sd'cifc doan lien quan dd'n nhidt dd, h l u hd't cac chi sd'dd^u cho
tha'y sir gia tdng c(ia cac hl$n tirorng cifc doan trong nhifng ndm qua. Cac chi sd'cifc
doan lidn quan dd'n lifdng mifa cung thd' hidn sif gia tdng cac hi$n tucrng cifc doan khi
hdu dd'i vdi lifdng mifa Idn cd ve sd'ngay va lirorng.
Md'dau
THE CLIMATE CHANGE TDEND
rOD TAY NGUYEN DEGION
Summary
Calculation results showed, the
increasing rate of annual temperature
averaged over Tay Nguyen region was about
Q.^K during the past 50 years. In which,
Ihe increasing rate ot the dry season was
as nearly twice as that of the rainy season.
The rainfall of both rainy and dry seasons
has been increasing which mainly made the
annual total rainfall increase by about 10%
during the past 50 years. Referring to the
climate extreme events calculated from dally

temperature and rainfall, there were an
increasing rate of most indices. Especially,
climate extreme indices related to the bight
threshold were increasing faster. On the
other hand, climate extreme events referred
to rainfall showed the increasing rate in
terms of both the number of days and
amount.

CONGNGHEVIETNAnr

S6'20 nam 2013

Bien doi khi hau da va dang diln ra tren quy mo to^n c^u va
la thach ttiufc Idn doi vdi con ngUdi. Bieu hien ro rang nhat cua
bien d6i khi hau la si; tang len cua nhiet dp, thay d6i ve li/dng
maa cung nhu su gia tang cac hien tadng cifc doan. Trong
nhQng nam gan day, da cd nhieu cong trinh nghien cufu cong
bd' cac ket qua danh gia bien doi khi hau 6 trong nt/dc noi
chung va khu vac Tay Nguyen ndi rieng. Tuy nhien, d mot khia
canh nao dd, nhiJfng danh gia nay vSn chua day dCi va chUa
the hi§n di/dc xu the bien ddi cDa cac hien tadng ci^c doan
mdt each ro rang. Nhom chuyen gia ETCCDI (Export Team
on Climate Change Detection and Indices) da dapc thanh lap
bdi To chLfc Khi tadng the gidi (WIVIO) nham xay dUng cd s6
khoa hgc v6 danh gia bi§n doi khi hau, xay dang c^c chi s6
khi hau cac doan va giup de cac nadc thudc WI^O trong danh
gia bien doi khi hau. ETCCDI da cong bo 27 chi so cac doan
khi hau dadc tinh toan ta so li§u ngay cua nhi§t do toi cao, toi
thap va ladng maa. Djnh nghTa va phadng phap tfnh to^n 27 chi

so nay dadc cong bo t^i trang web ificclimate.
org/indices.shtml. Hien nay, bo chi s6' nay da va dang dUdc sif
dung pho bien rong rai d nhieu nadc trgn the gidi, trong bao cao
AR4 (IPCC, 2007) va di; kien trong AR5. Od cung \k cac chT so
khi hku can ban dagfc sii dung trong cdng tac nghien cQu cac
cac trj khi h§u va bien doi khi hau d khu vac Tay Nguyen, nhif
cac chi so: TX^ (nhiet dp toi cao ngay cao nhat trong thang),
TX^ (nhiet do tdi cao ngay thap nh^t trong thang), TN (nhiet dp
tdi thap ngay cao nhat trong thang), TN„ (nhiet dp td'i th§'p ligay
tha'p nh^t trong thang)... Viec tinh toan cac chi sd cac doan khi


NGHieNOJU-TRflO ©61

hau d khu vac Tay Nguyen dapc daa tren cac chi so'
ci,fc doan va cac khuyen cao cua ETCCDI.

So lieu sir dung va phumig phap nghien ciHi
So li$u sCt dgng
So lieu nhi§t dp trung binh thang, lapng maa
th^ng cCia cac trgm ti§u bilu cho cac tinh bao gom:
Kon Tum, Pleiku (Gia Lal), Budn Ivla Thudt (Dak
L^k), Dak Ndng va Bao Ldc (Lam Ddng). Thdi gian
cCia chuoi sd lieu tuy thudc vao khk nang cd so' lieu
cua mdi tram va mdi yeu to' tren khu vac nghien
cufu trong giai dogn 1960-2010. Sd' lieu ngay ddi vdi
lupng maa, nhidt dd tdi cao va nhiet dp toi thap tai 6
trgm (Pleiku, Budn Fvia Thudt, Da Lat, Ayunpa, Bao
Ldc, Dak Ndng) ti§u bieu cho toan bp Tay Nguyen
dupc sis dgng de tinh toan cac chi sd khi hau cUc

doan.
PhUdng phip nghien cCfu
Ddi vdi nhiet dp va lapng mUa thang, mua va
nam: mQc dd bien ddi va xu the bidn ddi cOa cac
yeu td khi hau nhiet dp, IUdng mua dapc danh gia
thdng qua 2 tham sd sau:
a) Dp Idch tieu chuan (S): S =
b) Bien suat (Sr): g
''

\-Y,{x,-3^

=^*100%
X

lien quan den nhiet dp va lUpng maa. Tuy nhien,
ETCCDI cung khuyen cao, khi ap dung cac chi sd
nay vao cac vung khf hau khac nhau, cac djnh nghTa
(ngudng cue doan) can ph^i dupc xay dang lai sao
cho the hien dupc tfnh cue doan tren khu vuc. Khi
tinh toan cho khu vUc Tay Nguyen, dUa tren cac chi
sd cue doan va cac khuyen cao cua ETCCDI, cung
nhu cac dac trUng khi hau tren khu vUc, chung tdi
da lua chpn va xac djnh Igi cac ngadng cue doan
cho khu vUc Tay Nguyen (bang 1, bang 2).
Bing 1: danh sach cac chisd ci/c doan khf hiu
lidn quan den nhiet dd dUdc tinh toan cho khu vUc Tay Nguyen
STT

'

2

'
^
"
^

Vdi bj, va b, dupc udc tinh theo phuong phap
binh phUPng tdi thieu:

b, =-^

SS ngSv fiSng ndng gay g i l S6 ng^y irong nSm co Tx (nhiS
do cao nhSl ng^y] >3T'C

rgSy

SU35

5 6 ng^y n i r g ndng

s a ngSiy trong r a m c6 T i (nrti*
dOcaonh^tnqay} >3S°C

ngSy

TXx

Man Tmax

-ihiBl dp loi eao n g i / cao nhat

=C

TN,

MaK Tmin

Nhi^t DO tdi ttiflp ngUy cao

°C

TXn

MIn Tmax

TNn

M l . T-nir

Nhiai d6 t6i cao ng^y t h i p
nhal trong Ihann
Nhtet d6 i6\ tnSo r g ^ / Ihap
n h l l trong thdng

.r

°C

T N I Op

Dfim l^nh

S6 ng^y c6 Tm < pliSn vi 10%

ngiy

B

TX10p

Ngay l^nh

So ngay cd T i < phSr v( 10%

ngSy

'

TN90p

DSm ndng

S6 ngay c6 Tm > phfln v| 90%

rigSy

TXSOp

NgSy nong

So ngay co Tx > phSr vj 90%

ngSy

10

Bing 2: danh sich cic chJsdciJc doan khi hau
n quan den lupng mUa dUOc tinh loan cho khu vijc Tiy Nguyen
Ten chi so

E)|nh nghiB chi s6

STT

Kl h i t u

'

RXiday

LUOng mua ngay Bn nhit

RXSday

Luong mua 5 ngay Ion nhfit Lupng mua 5 ngay Ifln nhSt thdng

2

Tdc dp bien ddi theo thdi gian dupc xac dinh
theo phUPng phap phan ti'ch xu thd. Theo phUdng
phap nay, mdi quan he giQa yeu td x va thdi gian t
dupc xac dinh dUdi dang phUdng trinh tuyen tinh: x,
= b„ +b,t

SU37

Luang mua ng^y lOn rihi\ thang

QOnvj

mm
mm

16ng lupng mua nSm chia cho so ngay mm/day
long ndm CO lupng mua 31,0 mm

^
'

SDU

Chlsficiiongddmi/a

R50

S6 ngay co lupng mua vuol S6 ngdy trong ndm c6 lupng mua >50
nguengSO mm/ngay

ngdy

S

R100

SS ngay co lupng mua uUpl SS ngdy irong ndm cii lupng mua
ngueng 100 mm^gay
3100 mm

ngdy

'

CDD

Ng^V khe h^n tijc

SS ngay lei da c6 lupng m j a <1 mm

ngdy

7

CWD

Ngay am lien Igc

S6 ngdy tSi <1a cii lupng mua >\ mm

ngdy

a

Rgsp

Ngdy rSt im

SS ngdy Irong ndm P6 lUpng mUa >
phdn VI95%

mm

g

Rggp

NgSysieuam

S i ngdy trong ndm c6 lupng mua >
phan VI 99%

mm

; b^=Dc — byt

Ket qua va thao ludn
Cac dac trang thu dacfc tC/ phacing trinh bao gom:
toe do xu thS': b,; goc xu the: b„; he so tUOng quan
Tinh toan cac chT sd cQc doan khi hau: nhdm

chuyen gia ETCCDI da dUara djnh nghTa vaphudng
phap tfnh toan ddi vdi 27 chi sd khi hau ci/c doan

M&c dQ va xu the'bien doi hang nam cua nhi^t
dQ
Mdc do bien dot cua nhiet dp trung binh tren cac
tfnh cua Tay Nguyen va trung binh khu vuc Tay
Nguyen dapc danin gia thdng qua 2 tham sd chuan
sai (S) va bien suat (Sr %). Trung binh tren khu v\ic
Tay Nguyen, vao thang I, co chuan sai cua nhiet dp
trung binh la 1,1 °C, thang VII la 0,6°C va chung cho

o-on - on.a
TapchKHOflHM
So20„an,20,3 CONGNCHEVIETNlSf

'


NGHI€NCLftJ-TRfiOTOt

ca nam la 0,8°C; bien suat cCia nhiet dp trung binh
(Sr % ) tUdng Qng cho cac thang I, VII va ca nam lan
lupt la 5,6%, 2,4% va 3,7% (b&ng 3). Ndi chung, trdn
khu vuc Tay Nguyen, mQc dp bien doi cua nhidt dd
trung binh, xet vd tri sd tuy$t ddi cua chuln sai hay
bien suat, tUdng ddi ldn trong mua kho, nhd trong
mua mUa va ca nam mQc dd bidn ddi khdng nhieu.
Bing 3: chuin sai (S) vi bidn suat (Sr) cua nhlet do trung binh
khu VI/C Tiy Nguydn

Die trUng

1

VII

Nam

S

1,1
5,6

0,6

0,8

2,4

3,7

Sr (%)

%) (b&ng 4). Trung binh tren khu vMc TSy Nguy§n,
vao mua khd, cd chuln sai oDa lupng mUa miia kh6 '
149,9 mm, mOa mua la 354,0 mm va chung oho ck
nam la 419,4 mm; bidn suat cua IUdng maa (Sr %)
tUPng Qng cho cac mCia khd, mua mUa va ck nam lan
lupt la 45,3%, 18,5% va 18,3%. MQc dp bien ddi cCia

lupng mua, xet ve tri s6 tuyet ddi c&a chuan sai hay
bien suat, tQdng ddi Idn trong mija khd, nhd trong
mua mua va ck nam mQc dd bidn doi khdng nhidu.
Bang 4: chuin sai (S) vi bien suit (Sr) cua lupng mUa
khu vi/c Tiy nguydn
Sac triTng

Mua kho

MCia maa

Nam

S

149,9

354,0

419,4

Xu thSbiSn dSi cua nhiet dd trung binh: tinh xu the
Sr(%)
45,3
18,5
18,3
cua nhiet dp dUpc the hien thong qua dau cua he sd
Xu the bien doi cua ladng mda: tinh xu the ciia
tUPng quan r^, giQa nhiet dd (x) va thdi gian (t) hoac
da'u cCia h§ sd b^ va toe dp xu the cua nhiet dd dupc lupng mUa dUpc the hidn thdng qua dau cua hk

the hien thdng qua dp Idn hd sd b^ cua phUdng trinh sd tadng quan r^, giQa nhiet dd (x) va thdi gian (t)
hoac dau cCia h i sd b,, va tdc dd xu thd cOa IQpng
xu the.
mUa dapc thd hien thdng qua dp Idn he sd b, cQa
Hlnh la, l b va 1c bilu diln xu thd bien doi cQa phadng trinh xu thd. Hinh 2a, 2b va 2c bieu diln
nhiet dp trung binh thang I, thang VII va trung binh xu the bien ddi cCia lapng mua mCia khd, mua mUa
nam cCia khu vQc Tay Nguydn thdi ky 1960-2010. va lupng mUa nam cua khu vt/c Tay Nguy§n thdi
Trong 50 nam khao sat nhiet dp trung binh mua ky 1960-2010. Trong 50 nam khko sat lUpng mUa
kho, mua mua va ca nam ddu cd xu the tang vdi mua khd, mua mua va lapng maa ca nam deu cd xu
tdc dp xu the lan lupt la 0,028°C/nam, 0,016°C/nam the tang vdl tdc dd xu thd l^n lupt la 5,47 mm/nam,
va 0,019°C/nam. Nhidt dd trung binh mua khd tang 6,36 mm/nam va 11,6 mm/nam. Lupng mUa mua
nhanh hdn nhiet dd trung binh mCia mua va c^ nam khd tang it hdn lupng mua mua mua va it hdn nhidu
(hinhl).
so vdi lupng mua ca nam (hlnh 2).

iB ^^^''^v "'' "^'^f
lilsiSISIiiil

! 8»,,l

"'•"""

||SESS|i|8|||

Hlnh 1: xu the bien doi cda
nhi^t dd trung binh thing I (a),
VII (b) vi trung binh nam (c)
khu vt/c Tiy Nguydn

Hlnh 2: xu thg bien dSi cUa

IUdng mua mOa ifhd (a), tnUa
mua (b) vi ludng mua nim (c)
khu vuc Tiy Nguyen

I i
i

:8B.S8S§S§|g
nim

MCrc d^ va xu the bien d6i hing nam cua lir^ng
mi/a
Mdc dd bien doi cua lupng mua mua khd (tQ
thang XI ddn thang IV), mua mUa (tQ thang V ddn
thang X) va ca nam tren cac tfnh cua Tay Nguyen
va trung binh khu vuc Tay Nguydn dupc danh gia
thdng qua 2 tham sd chuan sai (S) va bien suat (Sr

62

TGP cH KHOAHQC So 20 nam 2013
CONG NGHE VIET N m

lln™r(ntm)

Xu the bien dSl cua cic chi s6 ri/c doan khi
h$u
Xu the biin doi cic hien tt/fng a/i
den nhiet dd:

.oan lien quan

TCi kSt qud tinh toan xu thS bien <

::hl so


r

NGHI€NCQU-TRR0£)6l

Ket qua tinh toan xu thd bidn doi cac chi sd cQc
trj cua nhiet dp tdi cao va tdi thap cho tha'y, nhiet
dp tdi cao tuyet ddi cd xu the giam tren hau het
cac tram, vdi xu the khoang -0,48°C den -0,24°C/10
V««M«
,?*"'"•*.•,.,.
nam. Xu the tang nhe cua nhiet dp tdi cao tuyet ddi
chf tdn tai d cac tram Pleiku va Budn Ma Thudt.
Trong khi dd, gia trj thap nhit cua nhiet dp td'i cao
(TXn), gia tri cao nha't cua nhidt dd tdi thip (TNx) va
kiL/\
nhiet dp td'i thip tuyet ddi cd xu hQdng tang ro rang
cho thay, sd ngay nang ndng (SU35) va nang nong d cac trgm. Dac biet la ddi vdi nhiet dp td'i thap trdn
gay gat (SU37) tang tren hlu hdt cac tram. Tuy cac trgm d phia Nam khu vac Tay Nguyen cd to'c
nhien, xu the tang la khong nhieu, phd bien dudi dp tang nhanh nha't. Xu the bien doi cua nhiet dp td'i
1 ngay/10 nam, duy nhit t^i tram Budn Ma Thudt cao va tdi thap dudi ngadng phan v| 10% (TXlOp
cd xu thd tang cao nhat la 1,71 ngay/10 nam. Tuy - ngay lanh va TN10p - dem lanh): tQ kdt qua tinh
nhien, xu thd giam l^i xult hien 6 mdt sd tram nhQ toan cho thay, xu the g\km so ngay cd TX dQdi phan
Ayunpa (SU35: -1,51 ngay/10 nam) va trgm Dak vi 10% d cac tram phia Bac va tang d cac tram phia

Ndng (SU35: -0,31 ngay/10 nam), dac bidt la xu thd Nam khu vQc Tay Nguyen. Ddi vdi TNlOp, ket qua
giam dang ke tai tr^im Ayunpa vdi xu the giSm la 3,1 tinh toan cho thly xu hudng giam dang ke d hau het
ngay/10 nam (bang 5 va hinh 3).
cac tram, vdi mQc dp giam tQ 2 den hdn 6 ngay/10
nam. Sd ngay ndng (TXlOp) cd xu hadng tang ro
rdt d hau hdt cac tram, vdi mQc dp tang khoSng
Bing 5: xu thd bidn dSi cac chi sd cue doan khi hau lidn quan
din nhiet dd (trung binh trdn 10 nim) tai mdt sd tr^m quan trie tQ 1 den 2 ngay/10 nam. Duy nhat chi cd xu the
giam tgi tram Bao Ldc, vdi mQc dp giiim khoang
trdn khu vUc Tiy Nguyen
2,63 ngay/10 nam. Dd'i vdi sd dem ndng (TNQOp),
SUSS SU}7 TX,
TX, TN, TN, TXIflp TXSOp TNIDp TN9l)p
ket quS tinh toan cho thly xu hQdng tang dang ke
trdn tat Cci cac tram tinh toan, vdi mQc dp tang pho
-4,72
3,ao
Pleiku
0,08
0,05
0.01
0,35 Q,22 0,31
•0,51
1,31
bien tQ 1 de'n tren 7 ngay/10 nam.

f^i:"''^^''

>"'*

m

l U : . :>•:%! v . i i . ,

BuinMaThu^

1.71

0.03

0.07

0.40

0,09

0,38

0,52

0,51

0,63

GaL^t

0,00

0,00

•0,32

0,13

0,10

0,34

-0,35

1,34

-2,00

1,98

Ayunpa

•1,51

-3,10

-0,29

0.04

0.33

0.95

0.99

0,99

-5,44

6,78

BioLoc

0.02

0,00

•0.24

-0,23

0,29

0,64

3,4B

-2,63

•4,97

5,48

OJkNong

0,04

•0,13

•0,48

•0,17

0,32

1,04

1,12

2,09

-6,19

7,66

• »
• '
• »
•

tl

• ,.>

• <
9 -la

I'-s

1- \
/ ^s

V". ..,.\
•,

(^^

•
•
••
••
•
•
•

0,42

NhQ vay, cd the nhan thly rang, mac du nhiet dp
td'i cao tuyet ddi cd xu hUdng gicim hoac khdng thay
doi dang ke tren hau het cac tram, nhUng sd ngay
nang ndng, nang ndng gay gat, cac ngUdng cua
nhidt dp tdi thap, cac ngadng ngay nong va dem
ndng tang Idn, dac biet la sd dem ndng co xu hudng
tang ro ret nhit. Ben canh dd, sd dem lanh va ngay

Ignh cung giam di tren hlu hdt cac tram tfnh toan.
Kdt q u i nay phu hpp vdi xu the am len toan cau va
am len 6 lanh tho Vidt Nam. Ket qua cung cho thly,
mQc dp khac nghiet ve ngQdng nhiet dp cao tang
len trong nhQng nam qua.
Xu the bien doi cic hien tapng ct/c doan lien quan
de'n Iddng mda:

Tis ket qua tinh toan cho thly, lupng maa ngay
cue dgi (RXiday) tang tren da sd cac tram (Pleiku,
Budn Ma Thudt, B^o Ldc), vdi mQc dp tang nhanh
nhat la 12,75 mm/10 nam (Budn Ma Thudt). Tuy
nhien lupng mua ngay ci^c dai Igi giam d cac trgm
Da Lgt va Ayunpa, giam mgnh nhit la -17,15
Hlnh 3: xu thd bidn ddi cCia sd ngiy ning ndng • Tmax > 3S'C mm/10 nam (Ayunpa). Ddi vdi IQpng mUa cQc dgi
(ngdy/10 nim - trai) vi sd ngay ning ndng gay gat -Tmax > 37°Ctrong 5 ngay lien tiep (RX5day) cung tang dang kd
(ngiy/10 nim - phai)
tren da sd cac tram, vdi mQc dp tang nhieu nhat la

vtli
\,>, r^

S6'20 nam 2013

TapcH KHOflHI
CONG NGHE VIET N/

f ^ ^H

NGHI6N CLfu-TRflOTOI

khoang 35,46 mm/10 nam (Ayunp. j va ,noang tQ
5,67 den 49,78 mm/10 nam (tgi Da Lat va Ayunpa)
(bang 6). Nhu vgy, cd the thly ring trong nhOng
nam qua xu thd tang ddi vdi cac hidn tupng cQc
doan ddi vdi ngudng mua Idn tr§n khu vQc TSy
Nguyen ia chu ydu. Xu thd giam chi xult hien tgi
mdt sd trgm nhQ Ayunpa.

Ketlnan

24,17 mm/10 nam tai tram Bao Ldc. Xu hQdng giam
cua RXSday xult hien d Ayunpa va Dak Ndng, vdi
xu hadng gi^m lan iQdt la -9,89 mm/10 nam va 4,04 mm/10 nam. NhQ vay, cd the thly RXiday va
RXSday tang trdn hlu het cac trgm va chi gilim 6 2
trgm Ayunpa va Oak Ndng. Ddi vdi mUa Idn (R50)
va mua rat Idn (R10D), ket qua tinh toan cung cho
thly xu hudng tang tren hlu hdt cac tram. Trong
dd, tang nhieu nhat ia dd'i vdi R50 tai trgm Budn
Ma Thupt, Bao Ldc va Dak Nong vdi mQc dp tang
khoang 1 ngay/10 nam. Tuy nhien, ket qua tinh toan
xu the bien ddi cua sd ngay khd han (CDD) va sd
ngay am Qdt (CWD) cho tha'y rang, cac chi sd nay
cd xu the giam trdn da sd cac trgm. Dgc biet xu thd
giam Idn hdn doi vdi CDD, vdi mQc dp giam Idn nhat
khoang 6 ngay/10 nam tgi trgm Da Lat. Trong khi
dd, xu the bien doi tai cac tram khac va xu thd bidn
ddi cua CWD chf trong khoang tQ 1 den 2 ngay/10
nam. Ket qua tinh toan cung cho thly, xu the bien

ddi cija R95p va R99p la tang tren da sd cac trgm,
vdl mQc dd tang trong khoang tQ 28,12 den khoing
75,62 mm/10 nam (R95p) va tang khoang 7,8 den
55,89 mm/10 nam (R99p). Xu the giam cua R9Sp
Bing 6: xu the bien ddi cda cic ch! sd ct/c doan khi hiu
lidn quan ddn lapng mUa (trung binh tren 10 nim)
t^i mdt so' tram trdn khu vpc Tiy Nguyen
^"•^,0111 so

MQc dp bien ddi cCia nhidt dd trung binh d Tiy
Nguyen tUPng ddi Idn trong mUa khd, nho trong
mua maa va ca nam mQc dd bien ddl khong nhidu.
Trong 50 nam qua nhidt dd trung binh mua khd,
mua maa va ca nam deu cd xu the tang vdi tdc dd
xu thd trong mua khd tang nhanh hdn nhiet dp trung
binh mua mua va ca nam. MQc dp bien ddi cCia
lupng mua 6 Tay Nguyen tUdng ddi ldn trong mua
khd, nho trong mua mua va ca nam. Trong SO nSm
qua lapng mUa mua khd, mua mUa va IUdng mUack
nam deu cd xu the tang vdi tdc dp tang trong mua
mua khd it hdn lupng mua mua mua va it hPn nhidu
so vdi lupng mua ca nam. Xu thd gia tang cac hiSn
tupng cue doan lidn quan d i n nhiet dp cao d khu
vUc Tay Nguyen trong nhQng nam qua la tUPng ddi
ro ret. Hlu het cac chi sd cQc doan li§n quan ddn
nhiet dp deu tang, ngoai trQ nhi^t dp tdi cao tuy§t
ddi. Cac hien tupng cQc doan lien quan den ngudng
mua Idn ctio thly cd sQ gia tang vd lapng vk sd
ngay xult hien. Dang luu y la sd ngay khong mUa
Igi cd xu hudng giam, dac biet la 6 vung cao •

Tai li$utiiani khao
1. Nguyin Dilc NgO, chCi bien (2007): Bien d6i khf hau. Nhd
xuSt biin Khoa hpc vk Ky thuat.
2. Nguyin Trpng Hieu, Phgm Thi Thanh HUdng, Nguyin
Manh CUcing (2009): Bten ddi khi h§u d Vigt Nam, Ha Noi.
3. Nguyin Van Thang va nnk (2010): Nghign cdu Snh hufing
cua bien doi khf h$u d^n cac dieu kiSn ti/ nhien, tai nguySn thiSn
nhien va d^ xuSt c4c giSi phdp chi^n lU(?c phong tranh, giSm
nhe va thich nghi, phyc vu phdt triln b^n vQng kinh te - xk h^i fl
Vigt Nam, Bao cio tdng ket de tai c^p nhi ni/dc KC 08 13/0610.

RXtday

RXSday

R50

H100

CDD

CWD

R95p

R»9p

0,75

6,48

0,59

0.02

-2,36

-1,27

32,79

7,84

Buon Ma ThuAl

12,75

16,46

0,8

0,19

1,46

0,17

74,85

34,8

Da Lgt

-1,37

5,99

0,23

-0,02

-6,16

1,77

28,12

-5,67

5. WMO, No. 1500. (2009): Guidelmr
extremes in a changing climate in support of
for adaptation.

Ayunpa

-17,15

-9,89

-0,24

1,99

-0,94

-35,46

•49,78

6. />
G^oLoc

7,19

24,17

0,92

0,13

0,31

-1,23

66,52

41,91

Dak Nong

-8,2

-4,04

1.05

0,36

-1,68

-1,73

75,62

55,89

Pleto

4. IPCC. Climate Change (2007): Synthesis Report.

-0.4

« CONiNCHma - - - - - -

7. />
on Analysis of
' '"ned decisions