Báo cáo về tiềm năng thị trường bất động sản Việt Nam- Rediscovering Vietnam’s real estate potential.pdf

REDISCOVERING VIETNAM’S REAL
ESTATE POTENTIAL
1
st
March, 2007
Renaissance Hotel, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Presented by:
Marc Townsend – Managing Director
CB Richard Ellis | Page 2
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WHAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE PROPERTY MARKET
SINCE 2003?
•Limited capital markets
•An emerging condo market in Hanoi and HCMC
• Conspicuous consumption
• Ability to borrow from local banks at 10-11% per annum
• Consistently rising GDP and FDI
• China + 1, APRC, the Stock Market and entry to WTO has put Vietnam on the radar
screen, coupled with the ML report in Feb and the Euro Money Conference in Mar 2006
• Saturation in other South East Asian markets
CB Richard Ellis | Page 3
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MAP OF VIETNAM
CB Richard Ellis | Page 4
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HO CHI MINH CITY
CB Richard Ellis | Page 5
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VIETNAM TODAY
•
No Starbucks and No MacDonalds
• World leaders in pepper, coffee, cashew, shoes, fish/prawns, oil & gas exports
• No shortage of land, just good sites
• “If you build it, they will come” still exists but may not last much longer
• Many similarities to China in the early 90s in terms of work ethic, chaos on the
streets, migration of work force and market driven decisions
• Traffic, complete absence of infrastructure, MRT/MTR, bridges and tunnels
CB Richard Ellis | Page 6
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HCMC OFFICE MARKET
HCMC Prime Office Stock End of Q1.2007
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Q1/0
4
Q2/04
Q3
/0
4
Q4/04
Q1
/0
5
Q2

/0
5
Q3
/0
5
Q4/05
Q1
/0
6
Q2
/0
6
Q3/06
Q4
/0
6
Q1/0
7
s
q
m
Office Stock at the beginning of the quarter New supply during the quarter
CB Richard Ellis | Page 7
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HCMC OFFICE MARKET
Prime Office Rental Index
0
20
40

60
80
100
120
140
160
Q1 98
Q2 98
Q3 98
Q4 98
Q1 99
Q2 99
Q3 99
Q4 99
Q1 00
Q2 00
Q3 00
Q4 00
Q1 01
Q2 01
Q3 01
Q4 01
Q1 02
Q2 02
Q3 02
Q4 02
Q1 03
Q2 03
Q3 03
Q4 03

Q1 04
Q2 04
Q3 04
Q4 04
Q1 05
Q2 05
Q3 05
Q4 05
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1.07
Index (Q1 1998 = 100)
And the upward trend will continue due to:
• Growing demand
• Delays in new supply
US-VN Bilateral
Trade Agreement
CB Richard Ellis | Page 8
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Major Buildings
Existing - Future
Centec
EVN
Vietcombank
Times Square
M&C Tower
Financial Tower

VPBank
Sailing Tower
Pacific Place
Asiana Plaza
Metropolitan
Saigon Tower
Sun Wah
Saigon Center
Diamond Plaza
Gemadept
Saigon Trade Center
Me Linh Point
PetroVietnam
9 DTH
Vimedimex
Sacombank
Bao Viet
Golden Tower
CB Richard Ellis | Page 9
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HCMC OFFICE MARKET
SOME OF THE NEW OFFICE BUILDINGS COMPLETED IN
Q1. 2007
Opera View, Dist. 1
Lancaster, Dist. 1
Rosaco, Dist. 1
Petro Vietnam,
Dist. 1
E – Town 2, Tan Binh District

Estimated Total Supply in
Q1. 2007: 47,843 sqm
CB Richard Ellis | Page 10
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HCMC OFFICE MARKET
Take up and vacancy rate of
HCMC office buildings
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Q1.04 Q2.04 Q3.04 Q4.04 Q1.05 Q2.05 Q3.05 Q4.05 Q1.06 Q2.06 Q3.06 Q4.06
s
q
m
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%

8.0%
%
Take-up (Sqm) Vacancy Rate (%)
CB Richard Ellis | Page 11
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HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates
Rental growth of Grade A
2006 - 2007
23
29.5
Q1/2006 Q1/2007
*Note: Rents excluding S. C and VAT
unit: US$
growth rate 28%
Q1 - 2006 $23.00
Q1 - 2007 $29.50
Increase of 28%
Occupancy 100%
CB Richard Ellis | Page 12
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HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates
Rental Growth of Grade B
2006 - 2007
21
26.5
Q1/2006 Q1/2007
* Note: rents excluding S.C and VAT
unit:US$

growth rate 26%
Q1 - 2006 $21.00
Q1 - 2007 $26.50
Increase of 26%
Occupancy 99%
CB Richard Ellis | Page 13
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HCMC OFFICE MARKET – Rental Rates
Rental Growth of Grade C
2006 - 2007
17.5
20.5
Q1/2006 Q1/2007
* Note: rents excluding S.C and VAT
unit: US$
growth rate 17%
Q1 - 2006 $17.50
Q1 - 2007 $20.50
Increase of 17%
Occupancy 95%
CB Richard Ellis | Page 14
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HCMC OFFICE MARKET
Market Outlook in 2007:
9 Limited grade A office space still
remains.
9 Some new supply of Grade B office
space expected to come on line during

2007.
9Factors driving demand: Strong
economic growth, FDI growth, WTO
access, new multi-national companies,
expansion of existing multi-national
companies, Vietnam companies
upgrading, safety & quality Issues
9 Grade A office rental rates reflects
upward momentum and growing demand
vis-à-vis tight supply
9 Vacancy rate remains low, grade A (0%)
and B (<1%)
180,657182008
187,824152009
273,146122010
800,42572TOTAL
158,798272007
Expected
supply
(sqm)
Supply of
new grade
A, B & C
buildings
Expected
year of
completion
CB Richard Ellis | Page 15
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HCMC OFFICE MARKET
HCMC MAJOR UNDER CONSTRUCTION OFFICE DEVELOPMENTS IN Q1&Q2/07
3,100
8,000
27,000
1,600
10,143
10,780
3,960
7,600
6,000
11,945
6,000
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Opera View - Dist. 1
Rosaco Tower - Dist. 1
E-Town 2 - Tan Binh
Lancaster
Petro VN, Dist. 1
Vimedimex - Dist. 1
E-Star, Dist. 3
ITAXA, Dist. 3
N'Orch - Dist. 1
Cetpa - Tan Binh
Manulife - Dist. 7
Q1.2007 Q2.2007
(Source: CBRE)
sqm
CB Richard Ellis | Page 16
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HCMC OFFICE MARKET
EXPECTED FUTURE SUPPLY OFFICE SPACE
(2007 - 2010)
273,146
187,824
180,657
158,798
Expected completion in
2007
Expected completion in
2008
Expected completion in
2009
Expected completion in
2010
(unit sqm)
Rosaco Tower
Petro VN VP Bank Tower
Sacom Bank
Centec
Asiana
Plaza
Financial Tower
Vietcombank
Tower
2007 2008 2009 2010
CB Richard Ellis | Page 17
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THE MARKET’S TIMING – LARGER BUILDINGS
Bao Viet
20,000 sqm
(owner
occupied)
VPBank
20,000 sqm
(12,000 sqm
for lease)
Times Square
31,000 sqm
HCMC Power
Head Office
20,000 sqm
(10,000 sqm
for lease)
Centec
25,000 sqm
Asiana Plaza
32,000 sqm
Vietcombank
77,000 sqm
Financial Tower
100,000 sqm
M&C Tower
35,000 sqm
2008
2009 2010
113,000 sqm
212,000 sqm

2010
2011
Gemadept
16,500 sqm
(10,000 sqm
for lease)
A & B
25,000 sqm
2010
76,500 sqm
(32,000 sqm
for lease)
CB Richard Ellis | Page 18
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RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC
Number of Condos and Projects launched year-by-year
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
Condos
0
10
20
30
40
50
Projects

Units
648 0 0 0 150 0 0 124 1,234 3,418 7,644 10,37 11,47 7,270
Projects
100010013162742339
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
CB Richard Ellis | Page 19
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MAP OF CONDO PROJECTS IN HCMC
CB Richard Ellis | Page 20
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RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC
Completed Condominium Units year-by-year
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Over US$2,000
141 252
US$1,501 - US$2,000
526
US$1,001 - US$1,500
97 66 270 405
US$600 - US$1,000
798 124 1,110 1,965 1,330
Less US$600
552 1,594 881

1999 2003 2004 2005 2006 Q1/07
CB Richard Ellis | Page 21
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RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC
Average Selling Price Change of Typical High-end Condo
Projects in District 1
Indochina Park
Tower
US$1800
Indochina Park
Tower
US$1,500
The Lancaster
US$3,450
The Lancaster
US$2,050
Avalon
US$2,800
Avalon
US$2,089
Horizon
US$1,300
Horizon
US 850
-
500
1,0 0 0
1,5 0 0
2,000

2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2003 2004 2005 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
CB Richard Ellis | Page 22
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RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC
Average Selling Price Change of Typical High-end Condo
Projects in District 2 and Binh Thanh
River Garden
US$ 900
River Garden
US$1,400
Saigon P earl
US$1,100
Saigon Pearl
US$1,500
The Manor
US$2,200
The Manor
US$1,000
-
500
1,0 0 0
1,5 0 0
2,000
2,500
3,000

3,500
4,000
2003 2004 2005 Q1/06 Q2/06 Q3/06 Q4/06 Q1/07
CB Richard Ellis | Page 23
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RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC
Ratio between launched and sold units year-by-year
0
9000
18 0 0 0
27000
36000
45000
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Accumulation of
remaining units
648 798 922 3226 6284 12082 22755 36909
Acummulation of sold
units
0 72 100 708 2,609 6,913 12,810 19,517
Average ratio between
sold and available
0% 9% 11% 22% 42% 57% 56% 53%
1994 1998 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

CB Richard Ellis | Page 24
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RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC – FUTURE SUPPLY
Projects will be completed in 2007 – 2009
Central Garden-D.1 Hung Vuong Plaza-D.5 Cantavil-D.2 River Garden-D.2 Capitaland Vista-D.2 Ben Thanh Orient
Plaza-D.1
New Development year-by-year
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Condo units
10,152 11,081 10,995
Projects
44 33 12
2007 2008 2009
CB Richard Ellis | Page 25
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RESIDENTIAL CONDO HCMC
TRENDS:
9New money flow from stock market into property.

9Strong investment wave from Asia: Korea, Japan,
Singapore. Keen on buying projects already licensed and
under construction instead of leasing land, developing from the
beginning.
9Hot market with more money from foreign institutional
and individual investors activated by Land Law effective
from 1 Jul 06 and Property Trading Law from 1 Jan 07.
9With encouraging Government policies, more developers
investing in low income projects.