Tp.
-------------
N
2011
Tp.
-------------
Ngân hàng
: 60.31.12
PGS.TS
và
ghi
có
,
nhà tr
.
TP.
, ngày
tháng
11
Quý t
.
ôi xin
i
trong
cho tôi,
o
trong
h
TCDN 4 K17
,
Trang
1.
......................................................................................... 1
2.
.............................................................................................. 2
3.
.......................................................................... 2
4.
....................................................................................... 3
5.
................................................................................................. 3
:
n
1.1
................................................................................... 4
.................................................................................................... 4
-Index .......................................................... 5
1.2.
TTCK ................................ 6
..................................................................... 6
.............................................. 7
......................................................... 9
.................................................................................... 9
......................................................... 10
............................................................ 10
................................. 12
1.2.6
ên TTCK .................... 13
1.2.7
TTCK..................................................... 13
nhân
mô và TTCK .......................................................................................................... 15
..................... 15
........................................... 17
........... 19
...................................................................................... 23
:
....................................................................... 24
2.1
....................................................................................... 24
.............................................................. 25
.......................................................... 26
.......................................................................... 27
............................................. 28
......... 28
.............................. 29
-Index ....................................... 29
-Index.................................................................... 31
-Index ................................ 33
2.2.2.4
-Index ............................................. 34
2.2.2.5
-Index ....................................................... 36
-Index ............................................ 37
2.2.2.7
-Index ...................................................... 38
...................................................................................... 41
:
.............. 43
................................................................. 43
......................................................................... 44
.................................................................................. 44
phát ......................................................................................... 44
.................................................................................................. 44
........................................................................................ 45
..................................................................................... 45
.................................................................. 46
..................................................................................... 46
............................... 47
........................................................................... 47
3.2.2 Mô hình
........................................................................ 47
..................................................................... 47
........................................................... 48
.................................................................... 48
.......................................................................... 48
..................................................................... 50
n ................................................. 56
............................................................................ 67
.................................. 69
.................................................................. 69
................................................................ 73
...................................................................................... 75
:
................................................................ 77
................................................................... 77
............................................................................. 79
.................................................................... 83
............................... 84
..................................................................................... 86
............................................................................................................... 90
APT
: Arbitrage Pricing Theory
ADF
: Augmented Dickey-Fuller
CAPM
: Capital Asset Pricing Model
GIRFs
: Generations Impulse Response Functions
-
NHNN
NHTM
OLS
: Ordinary least squares
PP
: Phillips-Perron
TCTD
TTCK
:T
VAR
: Vector Autoregressive model
VN-Index
VECM
:Vector Error Correction Model
Phillips-Perron
D
.................................... 24
......................................................... 43
............................................................ 49
............................. 51
............... 57
............................................... 58
................................ 67
-Index .............................................. 73
...................................... 25
.................................. 26
........................... 27
-Index ......................... 30
-Index ...................................................... 32
-Index................................................... 33
7
-Index ....................................................... 35
8
-Index ................................................... 36
-Index ......................................... 38
.10
-Index.................................................. 39
-
.......... 71
1
1.
lia;
2
2.
ìn ban
3.
Nam.
3
-
4.
khoán, phân tích phân rã ph
5.
4
LÝ
1.1
:
ndon
khác nhau:
mua
5
-
và
,
thông hàng hóa.
-Index.
1.
-
n
Qti xPt i
VN
Index
i 1
n
x 100
i
0
i
0
Q xP
i 1
6
Pt i
Qti
P0i
Q0i
1.2.
c nhân
TTCK
-
TCK.
7
Maysami và Koh (2000) và Kwon & Shin (1999).
,
T
2009).
L
là
8
oanh
trên
9
n
V
t 1
Dt
(1 k e )t
t
e
e
t
10
k
Zealand, Christopher Gan và c
và Naka (
11
giá (Mukherjee và Naka, 1995)
ra
12
1.2.5
n
Fukuda và Ko, 2010),
.
13
Maghayereh (200
1.2.6
1.2.7
TTCK
14
15
-
nhân
mô và TTCK
nhân
trên
APT) (Ross,
pricing model
1.
nhân
TTCK
16
Bodie (1976), Geske và Roll (1983), Pearce và Roley (1983, 1985). Fischer và
(Vector error correction model
0
quan
trong