(Luận văn thạc sĩ) impact of changing population structure on economic growth of vietnam

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI

VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY

TRAN NGOC HAI LINH

IMPACT OF CHANGING POPULATION
STRUCTURES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH
OF VIETNAM

MASTER'S THESIS

PUBLIC POLICY


VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI

VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY

TRAN NGOC HAI LINH

IMPACT OF CHANGING POPULATION
STRUCTURES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH
OF VIETNAM

MAJOR: PUBLIC POLICY
CODE: 8340402.01

RESEARCH SUPERVISOR:
Dr. VU HOANG LINH
Associate Prof. MOGES ABU GIRMA

Hanoi, 2020


TABLE OF CONTENT

LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................. i
LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................... ii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS................................................................................. iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................... iv
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ............................................................................1
1.1. Research background ...........................................................................1
1.2. Problem statement ................................................................................6
1.3. Purpose of the study ..............................................................................6
1.4. Research questions ................................................................................6
1.5. Research method ...................................................................................7
1.6. Significance of the study .......................................................................7
1.7. Thesis’ structure: ..................................................................................7
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................9
2.1. International literature on the impacts of changing population
structures on economic growth:...........................................................................9
2.2. Vietnamese literature on the impacts of changing population
structures on economic growth in Vietnam:.....................................................13
2.3. Research gap ........................................................................................15
2.4. Conclusion ............................................................................................17
CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY .........................................................................18
3.1. Overall Quantitative Analysis and the Econometrics......................18
3.2. Regression Model ................................................................................19
3.3. Index calculation .................................................................................24
3.4. Expected signs of Variables ................................................................24

3.5. Hypothesis ............................................................................................25
3.6. Conclusion ............................................................................................25
CHAPTER 4 DATA ................................................................................................27
4.1. Data collection .....................................................................................27
4.2. Data Descriptive ..................................................................................27
4.3. Conclusion ............................................................................................28
CHAPTER 5: ESTIMATION RESULT ...............................................................29
5.1. Impact of changing on working-age population on GRDP per
capita: 30
i


5.2. Impact of other factors on GRDP per capita: ..................................31
5.3. Conclusion: ..........................................................................................32
CHAPTER 6: POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS ..............................................34
6.1. Policy recommendations: ...................................................................34
6.2. Limitations: ..........................................................................................35
6.3. Conclusion ............................................................................................36
REFERECES ...........................................................................................................37

ii


LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1: An example of life-cycle surplus
Figure 3.1: The LM test result
Figure 3.2: The Hausman test result

i

Page
14
18
19


LIST OF TABLES

Table 1.1. Total population and 15-64-year-old population’s growth rate
from 1990 to 2050
Table 1.2. TFR and Percentage of youth people to total population from
1989 to 2018
Table 1.3. Global population aging trend
Table 2.1. Bloom and Williamson (1998)’s variables
Table 2.2. Mikiko (2015)’s variables
Table 2.3. Compare and contrast to previous research papers
Table 3.1. Independent and Dependent Variables’ definition and source
Table 3.2. Dummy Variables for Areas
Table 3.3. Expected signs of Variables
Table 4.1. Descriptive statistics of variables
Table 5.1. Estimation Result

ii

Page
1
2
3
10

11
16
20
23
25
27
29


LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

Order
1.

Abbreviations
CH

2.
3.
4.
5.

FDI
FE
GDP
GOV

6.
7.
8.

GRDP
GSO
LM

9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.

MRD
NCC
NMM
NTA
PCI
RE
RRD
SE
VCCI

18.

VJU

Full word

Central Highlands
Foreign direct investment
Fixed Effect
Gross Domestic Product
Government of the Socialist Republic of Viet
Nam
Gross Regional Domestic Product
General Statistics Office of Vietnam
The Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian
multiplier
Mekong River Delta
North Central and Central coastal
Northern midlands and mountain
National Transfer Accounts
Provincial Competitiveness Index
Random Effect
Red River Delta
South East
Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and
Industry
Vietnam Japan University

iii


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
After two years of hard-studying in Vietnam Japan University, finally, I could finish
my thesis successfully. Firstly, I would like to give the sincerest thanks to my
supervisors, Prof. Moges Abu Girma and Dr. Vu Hoang Linh. Moges-sensei had
supported me when I was an internship in Japan, while Dr. Linh has helped me a lot

when I went back Hanoi to continue writing my thesis. The most difficulty I have to
deal with is that I have no experience in doing academic research, especially
quantitative methods, how and where to collect the data, as well as testing the
model. But Dr. Linh has guided me step by step to overcome these challenges.
Without both supervisor's guidance and their support, I could not do my thesis
successfully.
Secondly, I would like to say thanks to Dr. Nguyen Thuy Anh, Dr. Dang Quang
Vinh, Prof. Naohisa Okamoto, Ms. Nguyen Thu Ha, and Ms. Pham Lan Huong,
who from the office of MPP of VJU. They always support and encourage me when
I study in VJU.
Last but not least, I would like to thank all the staffs of Tsukuba University who
supported MPP 3rd intake students during the internship in Japan. They were
willing to help us in every situation from the first day we came until the last minute
we left Japan. They bring us a lot of joyful moments and unforgettable memories,
not only in term of studying experience but also the lifestyle and discovering the
culture of Japan.
I might add that two years studying in VJU, including the three months' internship
in Japan, is the most fabulous time in my life. Thanks to the Vietnamese
government and the Japanese government has brought this lucky chance for me to
obtain a Master of Public Policy's course in VJU.

iv


CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

1.1.

Research background

1.1.1. Vietnamese population’s overview
Vietnam is a developing country with 94,6 million people, and around 55,3 million
people in working-age1. This number accounted for 58,5% of the total population.
Table 1.1. Total population and 15-64-year-old population’s growth rate from 1990
to 2050

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Total
population

67,9

79,9

88,8

96,2

104,16

107,7

109,6

Growth
rate

9%

18%

11%

10%

7%

3%

2%

Population
15-64yo

38,7

49,5

61,4

61,1

69,6

70,8

68,3

Growth
rate

12%

28%

24%

-0.5%

14%

2%

-4%

Source: WDI and UN
Table 1.1 above illustrates the total population and the population aged 15 to 64year-old and their growth rate from 1990 to 2050 in Vietnam. According to

Probabilistic Population Projections of United Nations (UN), the growth rate of the
total population of Vietnam will slow down. It will decline gradually from 10% in

1

Statistical Yearbook of Vietnam 2018 - GSO

1


2020 to 3% in 2040 and reach only 2% in 2050. The growth rate of the population
aged 15 to 65-year-old have rapidly decreased from 14% to minus 4% in 2050. It
means that the people of Vietnam will experience growth slowly while the number
of the labor force is falling in the next 30 years.
There are three critical points in the population policies during the past 40 years,
which lead to the dynamic change in the population structure in Vietnam: reducing
birth rate and death rate, and focusing on improving people's quality of life. These
policies had led to the decrease in the Total Fertility Rate while the life expectancy
was increasing.
Table 1.2. TFR and Percentage of youth people to total population from 1989 to
2018
1989

1999

2009

2018

Total Fertility rate

3.8

2.33

1.93

2.04

Population aged 014 (% of total
population)

39.2

33.0

24.5

23.1

Sourse: Collected from Vietnam Population and Housing census year 1989, 1999,
2009, 2018
Table 1.2 above shows that in 1989, a female in the child-bearing ages gave birth to
3.8 children, but in 2018 this figure was only 2.04 children. This fall in TFR
resulted in a rapidly decreasing percentage of youth population, down from 39.2%
in 1989 to 23.1% in 2018.
On the other hand, Vietnam has rapid population aging, and the aging process in
Vietnam is as quick as the process in Japan and China.

2

Table 1.3. Global population aging trend
Country

Population Aged 65 and Above (% of Total)
7%

10%

14%

20%

Years

Taiwan

1993

2006

2018

2026

33

Japan

1970

1984

1994

2005

35

South
Korea

1999

2007

2017

2026

27

Singapore

1999

2012

2018

2026

27

China

2000

2016

2025

2035

35

France

1864

1943

1990

2019

155

Germany

1932

1951

1971

2008

76

UK

1929

1946

1975

2026

97

US

1942

1972

2013

2029

87

Vietnam

2016

2025

2035

2050

34

Source: World Population Prospects
“Year” column in Table 1.3 shows the entire year of a country transforms from an
aging population to an aged population country. According to UNFPA, the socalled “aging population” period is when the proposition of people aged 65+ to the
total population accounts for 7% or more. And “aged population” period happened
when the proposition of 65-year-old or more population reaches 20% to the total
population.
It takes only 34 years for Vietnam to become a country with aged population in
3


which the old-age dependency ratio reach 20%. Based on the data shown in Table
1.3, Asian countries such as Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, and Vietnam has a quicker
process of aging than American and European countries. The rapidly aging process

will bring an additional burden to the working-age population, which is the primary
resource for economic growth.
1.1.2. Population policies in Vietnam:
Population policies are legislations, management programs, and other government
activities that aim to change or adjust current population trends for the growth and
prosperity of the Nation. Depending on specific objectives and situation, the
Government will issue policies and laws to guide and regulate the process of
population development.
The Vietnamese Government has soon realized the vital role of the population to
the social-economic growth. Council of Ministers (now is called Government of the
Socialist Republic of Viet Nam - GOV) issued the first population policy of
Vietnam – The Decision No. 216/CP on 26th December 1961; guiding the
childbearing with the aim of mothers' maternal health, for the welfare and harmony
of the family, so that the parenting can be thoughtful, the female procreation is
appropriately instructed.
Later on, the seventh National Party Congress (from 1991 to 1996) - The Central
Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam considers population activities and
family planning are an essential part of National development strategies, as well as
a critical factor in enhancing the life quality of each Vietnamese people, family, and
community as a whole.
In the next period, several solutions were implemented simultaneously. For
example, GOV formulated a Population - Family Planning Strategy period from
1993 to 2000 and 2001 to 2010 and 2011 to 2020, and the newest is "Vietnamese
4


Population Strategy to 2030". The Strategy was issued on 22nd November 2019 in
the Decision No. 1679/QD-TTg, signed by Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc.
The overall goal of this Strategy is maintaining the replacement fertility rate;
controlling the sex ratio at birth to natural equilibrium; taking advantage of the

golden age population effectively; adapting to population aging; reasonably
distributing the population density and improving the quality of population to
contribute to rapid and sustainable national development.
For effective implementation, the Strategy clarifies eight objectives to be done until
2030, which are:
-

Objective 1: Maintain a replacement fertility rate firmly, reducing fertility
disparities between regions and entities.

-

Objective 2: Protect and develop the population of ethnic minorities with less
than 10 thousand people, especially these ethnic minorities that are at a high
risk of rapidly declining their population.

-

Objective 3: Control the sex ratio at birth to the natural balance, strive to
maintain the age structure at a reasonable level.

-

Objective 4: Improve the quality of the population.

-

Objective 5: Distribute the community reasonably and ensure National
defense and security.

-

Objective 6: Complete the construction and operation of the national
database on population, accelerate the integration of population factors into
the formulation and implementation of socio-economic development plans.

-

Objective 7: Maximize the golden-age population structure's advantages,
creating a strong motivation for the country's rapid and sustainable
development.

-

Objective 8: Adapting to the aging population, promoting health care for the
elderly.
5


1.2.

Problem statement

In the previous part, an introduction to the current status of the population, the
Vietnamese population’s policies, and the Strategy to 2030 of Vietnam are shown.
It can be seen that, in the context of Vietnam in the near future, the decline of
working-age population combines with the rapidly aging process will make the
working-age population will become the limited resource and get additional burden.
In addition, although Vietnam has transformed from an emerging country to a lowmiddle-income country recently, Vietnam needs to use the labor workforce in an
effective and wise way in order to grow faster and to avoid the middle-income trap.

Therefore, deeply understanding the relations between the changing economically
active population structure and economic growth is needed.
In this thesis, the correlation between population, dependent population, and the
Vietnamese economy will be examined with the more updated longitudinal data by
utilizing quantitative methods.
1.3.

Purpose of the study

There are two major purposes of this study.
The first purpose is to estimate the impact of population structures’ change on
economic growth using quantitative method with provincial data.
The second purpose is to propose appropriate policies to utilize human resources
effectively, as well as to promote sustainable economic growth in Vietnam.
1.4.

Research questions

This research is going to answer the two major questions:
1) How does the working-age population structure influence economic growth
in Vietnam? And to what extent?

6


2) What should the Vietnamese government do to utilize the population
resource effectively?
1.5.

Research method

The thesis uses the quantitative approach with provincial data. The time scope is
from 2011 to 2017. Data of all variables are collected from GSO, except PCI, which
is obtained from VCCI.
The secondary data obtained from GSO and VCCI is analyzed by applying the
Random Effect model, the relations between GRDP and the change in the workingage population's structure will be explored. Inside the model, the working-age
population and dependent population were considered as the primary explanatory
variable, while other factors such as PCI, life expectance at birth, working hour,
FDI, and vice versa are considered as the control variables. There are dummy
variables in the model to explore the difference between the six areas of Vietnam.
1.6.

Significance of the study

This thesis contributes two significant points:
Firstly, the thesis uses the most updated database available that were collected from
the GSO – a trustworthy Vietnamese data source. Hence, the estimation result of
this thesis illustrates the most updated situation of the population and the economic
growth of Vietnam.
Secondly, the previous Vietnamese papers mostly use national-scales data to
estimate the population's impact on economic growth, while this thesis uses
provincial-scales data for analysis.
1.7.

Thesis’ structure:

There are six major parts in this thesis: Introduction, Literature review,
Methodology, Data, Estimate results, and Policy Recommendations.

7

Chapter 01: Introduction – in this chapter, an overview of the population in
Vietnam, population policy, and the necessary information of this thesis, such as
research purposes, research questions, research methods, and study’s contributions
are introduced briefly.
Chapter 02: The literature review concentrates on showing the previous academic
works on this topic in the past. This chapter is divided into three central parts. At
first, the international papers in the related subject are briefly described and then
move on to Vietnamese papers, which is exploring the relationship between
population and economic growth. After reviewing the previous documents, both
internationally and domestically, I discuss the research gap.
Chapter 03: Research Methodology – This chapter discusses the methodology and
introduces the model used in the thesis. Moreover, the reason for choosing the
model and variables, and the explanation of some variables will be described in
more details. The two hypotheses of this thesis are also discussed.
Chapter 04: Data – this chapter focusses on the description of the data collection
step by step. The data used for analyzing will be described in details.
Chapter 05: Estimation result – in which the Random Effect model is used. The
discussion of the result is divided into two main parts. In the first part, the impact of
the change in the working-age population on the economic growth based on the
correlation coefficient of the primary explanatory variable on the dependent
variable after running the model. In the second part, I discuss the impact of other
factors in the economic growth model.
Chapter 06: Policy Recommendations – in this chapter, some policy
recommendations will be given. The suggestions of these policies are for both the
local and the central government.

8

CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW
This chapter includes three major parts: reviewing the literature from
Vietnamese papers and literature from international articles, which focuses the links
between population and economic growth. In the 3rd part of this chapter, the
research gaps are shown.
2.1. International literature on the impacts of changing population
structures on economic growth:
Throughout the world, the question of whether or not population growth affects
economic growth is raised by both demographers and economists. In the past,
various points of view regarding the impacts of population growth on development
have appeared. Coale & Hoover (1958) believe that an increase in the population
harms growth. While Simon (1981) – one of the optimists, believes that a
population increase leads to positive economic growth.
However, the change in the population age structure due to demographic transition
has various social and economic implications. Several studies explore the vital role
of changing population structure on economic growth by cross-country data. The
first paper that should be mentioned is the paper of David E. Bloom and Jeffrey G.
Williamson (1998). The paper estimates the impact of demographic variables on
economic growth, and the results show that future demographic change will tend to
depress growth rates in East Asia, while it will promote more rapid economic
growth in Southeast and South Asia. This model is considered the first model, in
which the demographic variables was taken into account.
̃

( )

This formulation focuses on both the total population and the working-age
population.

9


Table 2.1. Bloom and Williamson (1998)’s variables
Order
1

Variable

Calculation method
Growth rate of real GDP per capita in 1965-90

̃

̃
N: total population, L: the number of workers, y:
output per worker and ̃ : output per capita
2
3

( )

Income per worker at time
Growth rate of economically active population,
1965-90

4
5

Population growth rate, 1965-90

-

-

-

Population:
+ Growth rate of population under age 15
+ Growth rate of population over age 64
+ Growth rate of the dependent population
+ Average birth rate, 1967-87
+ Average death rate, 1967-87
+ Average infant death rate, 1967-87
+ Average noninfant death rate, 1967-87
+ Log life expectancy, 1960
Education:
+ Log years of secondary schooling, 1965
(average years of secondary school for population
age 25 or older)
Economy:
+ Log GDP per capita as a ratio of U.S GDP per
10


Order

Variable

Calculation method
capita, 1965

+ Government savings as a share of GDP, 1970-90
Other:
+ Natural resource abundance (share of primary
product exports in GDP in 1971)
+ Access to ports dummy (indicating if the
country is landlocked)
+ Openness
+ Tropics dummy (indicating if country is located
between the tropics)
+ Ratio of coastline to land area
+ Quality of institutions (index of quality of
governmental institutions)

-

The model proposed by Bloom & Williamson (1998) is considered as guidance for
identifying the primary relationship between population composition and economic
change. Based on this model, Mikiko (2015) develops a regression equation to
explore how the population composition by age group related to real GDP per
capita in Japan and to explore how the dependency ratio related to economic
change. In her equation is:
(

)=

(

)+

(

)+

(

)+

t: the time index
j: a lag value of 0 or 1
Table 2.2. Mikiko (2015)’s variables
Order
1

Variable

Calculation method
Growth rate of real GDP per capita in 1965-90
11


Order

Variable

Calculation method
̃
N: total population, L: the number of workers, and
̃ : output per capita

2

3

Population by age group (15-24, 25-34, 35-44, 4554, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75+) or Youth and
elderly dependency ratios.
Control variable:

,
-

Level of schooling,
Density
Working hours
Manufacturing share
Female labour
Employment labour
Employment

Mikiko (2015) applied the data from Japan for the period 1975-2011. The results
are impressive. She divides the elderly population into three groups, ages 65-69, 7074, 75+. The coefficients between these groups and real GDP per capita are
negative. However, the results illustrate that the 70-74 population age groups have a
negative link to economic growth, while the 75+ age group has a positive relation
with Japanese economic change.
Bloom & William (1998) divide the population into three groups such as young
population, working-age population, and elderly population, but Mikiko (2015)
divides the population into more group (11 groups), hence her research could
explore more which age groups are associated with the increase or decrease in
economic growth.
12

In some aging and aged countries such as Taiwan, China, Japan, and the U.S., there
are various ways that economists consider the impact of population aging on the
economy. Houang, Lin & Lee (2019) prove that although the aging workforce in
Taiwan has influenced economic growth positively, the elderly dependency ratio
still poses a significantly negative impact on economic change. In another paper
focusing on the impact of the aging process on trade balance, Fu (2013) finds that
population aging affects the trade balance in a certain extent. However, “the
influence is conditional and especially different between developed and developing
countries.” Besides, Maestas, Mullen & Powell (2016) use the U.S. States data from
1980 to 2010 to calculate the influence of aging population on national output per
capita. Their estimation result is that “a 10% increase in the fraction of the
population ages 60+ decreases the growth rate of GDP per capita by 5.5%”. In these
papers mentioned above, the data of the population is divided into several age
groups for analysis. For instance, the elderly population is divided into 60-69, 7079, 80-89 and the working-age population is divided into 5-7 age groups. This is
important because each age-group would contribute to the economic growth in
different magnitude and different ways. In Vietnam, there is still a limitation for
collecting data in this way, especially on the provincial scale.
2.2. Vietnamese literature on the impacts of changing population structures
on economic growth in Vietnam:
Economic growth is not only a top concern in every country in the world but also in
Vietnam. Both research and empirical theory show that population is one of the
factors that strongly influence economic growth and is of prime importance to the
socio-political situation in each country. In Vietnam, in the last decade, the question
of how population change influences economic growth has been raised. Tran & Do
(2008) used provincial data in the period 2000-2004 and applied the neo-classical
growth model with Cobb-Douglas production function to answer the question. They
found that education contributed to provincial economic growth, and GDP per
13

capita was higher in the provinces with higher human capital levels. Nguyen & Ha
(2010) had a more specific result. They used data on population growth rate and the
proportion of working-age population to total population to estimate the advantage
of the so-called “golden population period” in Vietnam. They pointed out that an
increase in the working-age population has a significant impact on economic
growth. From 1999-2009, change in the population’s age structure has contributed
2.29% to the economic growth rate.
There are three Vietnamese papers used another method, so-called National
Transfer Accounts (NTA) method, to estimate the influences of changing
population age structure on Vietnamese economic growth. These papers using NTA
method are “Effects of population age structure changes on economic growth in
Vietnam” of Bui (2012); “Estimating NTA for urban and rural areas in Vietnam” of
Giang and Pham (2012) and “Impact of population’s age structure changes on
economic growth in Vietnam and policy recommendations” of Giang et. al. (2015).
Figure 2.1. An example of life-cycle surplus

Source: Giang (2015), using data from VHLSS 2012 and IO Table 2012

14


The NTA is different from other methods because it focuses on a life-cycle surplus
of a person. Figure 2.1 shows an example of a life-cycle surplus in Giang (2015)’s
paper. The life-cycle surplus of typical Vietnamese starts from age 23 to 53. It
means that the population aged 23-53 had income higher than consumption, and
they created savings, which in turn could stimulate economic growth. Therefore,
this age group has a positive relation with economic growth. These results are
similar among three papers, although these papers using different time scales
(VHLSS 2008 and VHLSS 2012) and different area scales (the whole country and

urban/rural area). In addition, Bui (2012) finds that population aged 20-54
contributes 2,91% to the growth rate of GDP per capita from 1989-1999, and this
figure falls to 2,75% in the period from 1999-2000.
In NTA method, the IO table should be in the same year or closest to the VHLSS
data. There is an updated data for VHLSS which is VHLSS 2016, but there is no
update on I/O Table. Therefore, there is no room for applying this method.
2.3.

Research gap

The literature review of Vietnam papers shows that most researches using data
before 2010 and the NTA method using data 2012; in other words, the time period
is rather not updated. Moreover, the previous papers are using national-level data.
In the thesis, the data will be updated with more recent and provincial data. In
addition, I use panel data with random effect, and taking into account the provincial
competitiveness index (PCI) as a control variable to see wherever or not the
governance of provincial government involves in improving the outcome per capita
of the province/city. Table 2.3 below shows the comparision and contrast of this
study to the previous research papers mentioned in this chapter.

15


Table 2.3. Compare and contrast to previous research papers
My research

Time of the

Mikiko Oliver (2015)

2011-2017

Nguyen (2012)

1975-2011

1979-2009

National scale (Japan)

National

data

Scale

Province (Vietnam)

scale

(Vietnam)
Model

(

)

(
)

(

)

(
(

Estimate

+
)

-

̃

(

=
(
(

)
)

+

)+

)

RE

OLS

Model life table

method
Result

Expected

result: An increase in the 70-74 From

1979-1999,

estimate changing in population age group is decreasing in growth
working-age

associated

population
changing
dependent
population
economic

and decrease
in

in

a rate of population

economic combined with rising

the growth, while an increase in growth rate of
in

the

75

and

over working-age

affect population age group is population
growth associated

through GRDP per increase
capita.

with

with
in

16

an contributed 0,83% to

economic economic

growth in Japan.

had

growth

rate. This figure for


My research

Mikiko Oliver (2015)

Nguyen (2012)

the

period

1999-

2009 was 1,19%.

2.4.

Conclusion

This chapter focuses on reviewing the previous papers on this topic both in Vietnam
and other countries. The relations of population and economic growth has been paid
attention to researchers throughout the world, and various methods are being
applied. In Vietnam, the previous papers discover the effects of population on
economic growth by using national-scale data and applying the NTA method, as
well as simple regression. In this thesis, the RE method will be employed to analyze
the panel data collected on the provincial scale.

17