Mô hình cảnh báo sớm và chính sách hướng tới ổn định kinh tế vĩ mô

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<i>MitngXudn Tdn Mdo </i>

N H O N G VAN DE KINH TE VT MO ^

<b>mo HINH </b>

<b>CANH BAO </b>

va chinh sach huang toi

on dinh kinh te vi mo

<b>Nguyen Phi Lan * </b>

<b>1. Loi mo dau </b>

Mac du cic nghign ciiu vg
khiing hoang dgn te va cin cin
thanh toin da dugc nghign cihi
trong nhirng nam 70 ciia thg ky
trudc vdi sy khdi diu va dat ngn
mdng cua GS Paul Krugman,
nhung cac cude khung hoang kinh
tg - tai chinh trong vdng ban 20
nam trd lai day nhu khung hoang
"tequila" cua Mexico (1994

-1995), khiing hoang tai chinh khu
vyc Chau A (1997 - 1998), khung
hoang kinh tg tai Nga nam 1998,
khung hoang Braxin va khiing
hoang kinh te thg gidi nam 2008 da

cho thiy sy cin thigt phai phit trign
cic md hinh canh bio sdm khiing
hoang tai cic nudc dang phit trien
va mdi ndi nhu Viet Nam.

Thyc tiln phit trign kinh tg the
gidi cho thiy khi qui trinh toan elu

hda va ddng chu chuygn vdn trgn
thi trudng loan cau tang len, ty do
hda tai khoan vang lai va tai khoan
vdn khdng kip thdi digu chinh kip
so vdi qui trinh ty do hda va cai
cich d cic khu vyc kinh tg khic;
nhigu thi trudng mdi ndi, cic ngn
kinh te chuygn ddi theo dinh hudng
thi trudng xuit hien; sy ygu kem
trong edng tic digu hanh chinh
sich kinh tg vi md da dat ngn kinh
tg thg gidi ndi chung va cic nudc
ndi rigng dung trudc nguy ca
khiing hoang kinh tg va tign te siu
sac trong tuong lai. Do dd, viec
xay dyng cae md hinh canh bio va
dy bao vg nguy co khiing hoang
kinh tg, tign te va boat ddng ngin
hang va kinh nghiem ciia cic nudc
trgn thg gidi va trong khu vyc la
bgt sue cin thigt va cin dugc
nghign ciiu mdt each toan dien dg

giiip Viet Nam trinh duge cic cudc
khiing hoang tign te trong tuang
lai. Dg hieu rd dugc cic md hinh
canh bio sdm vg rui ro kinh tg vi
md va khung hoang tign te (EWS),
trong nghign cuu nay, tic gia trinh
bay vg cic thg he md hinh EWS da
dugc phit trign trgn the gidi va ting
dung chiing trong digu kien ngn
kinh tg Viet Nam.

<i>Cdc mo hinh cdnh bdo the he </i>
<i>thunhdt </i>

Md hinh EWS thg he thii nhit
dugc xay dyng va phit trien bdi GS
kinh tg Krugman (1979) va dugc
Flood va Garber (1984) cai bien
sau dd. Theo Krugman (1979),
khung hoang tign te dan dgn tii
thim hut ngan sich cao. Khi chi
tieu Chinh phii tang cao va dugc
* NHNN

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j ^ N H Q N G VAN DE KINH TE VT MO

den te hda nd thdng qua viec tang trudng dn dung
trong nudc, ngn kinh tg se phai ddi mat vdi tinh trang
lam phit tang cao va ddng tign trong nudc bi mat gia,

cic nha diu tu va cu din cd xu hudng gam giii ngoai
te. Khi dd, de duy tri ty gia tai miic da an dinh (trong
che do ty gia ed dinh), Ngan hang Trung uang
(NHTU) se budc phai giam dy trii ngoai te cho tdi
miic can kiet. Kgt qua la muc can bang ty gii dugc
thigt lap trudc dd khdng cdn bao dam dugc niia va phi
gii xay ra do stic ep cua thi trudng tign te va can kiet
dy trir ngoai hdi ehinh thiic. Theo quan sit cila
Krug-man, trudc thdi dig'm ddng ndi te bi phi gii, cac nha
diu CO cd thg' phin doin chinh xic vg kha nang mat
gii cila ddng ndi te khi quan sit cic chi sd kinh tg vi
md nhu miic chi tigu cua Chinh phii va tdc do tang
trudng cung tign. Do dd, cic nha diu co se ban ndi te
de mua ngoai te de trinh nhirng tdn thit khi mat gii
xay ra. Hanh dgng ddng thdi cila hg (bin ndi te va
mua ngoai te) trong bdi canh bit dn kinh tg vi md se
la mdt cudc tan cdng dau ca vao ndi te va khign dy tru
ngoai hdi sut giam nhanh ban va miie pha gia se xay
ra sdm hon.

Md hinh canh bio thg he thii nhit cbi ra rang sy
mat can ddi kinh tg vi md la nguygn nhan cua khiing
hoang tign te. Theo dd, sy tang trong ehi tigu Chinh
phU va dugc dgn te hda nd thdng qua he thdng ngan
hang se khign tang trudng tin dung qui mire, gay mit
gia thyc tg ddng ndi dia, tham hut tai khoan vang lai
vdi quy md Idn, hieu qua dau tu trong cac dy an thap,
cung nhu sy ygu kem trong cdng tac giim sit he thdng
ngin hang, tai chinh. Kgt hgp vdi sy ehgnh lech giiia
nhiing cam kgt va tuygn bd ciia cac nha quan ly kinh

tg vdi kha nang giii cac cam kgt dd se lam suy giam
muc do tin cay eua cdng chiing vao cdng tic digu hanh
chinh sach tign te cila Chinh phii. Tat ca cic ygu td
neu trgn se ed thg gay ra mdt cudc khung hoang tign
te (Nguygn Khic Minh 2008).

<i>Cdc mo hinh cdnh bdo the he thii hai </i>

<i>Ckc md hinh thg he thii hai la sy tigp ndi cic nghign </i>
cuu cua Krugman (1979) va Flood va Garber (1984).
Theo Obstfeld (1986, 1994 va 1996), cac md hinh
canh bio thg he thii 2 khdng xuit phat tu cic ygu td
kinh tg vT md can ban ma tap trung vao ky vgng.
Nhiing md hinh nay nhin manh tim anh hudng ciia
ky vgng hien thyc hda khung hoang va nhiing rdi loan
thi trudng tdi mdt ddng tign. Theo dd, mdt cudc khung
hoang dgn te xay ra do:

- Ky vgng gan kgt vdi nhau theo hudng gay ra
khiing hoang;

- Hanh vi bay dan mdt cich hgp ly;
- Tinh lan truygn.

Ky vgng gin ket vdi nhau theo hudng gay ; "'^""8
hoang phan inh sy bi quan cua cic nha dau to va corig
chiing vg cong tic digu hanh chinh sacli kinh tg cua
Chinh phu, cic bio cio vg tinh hinh khdng sing sua
eua nin kinh tl hay cic sy kien chinh tri. Ngu sd ngudi
bi quan cd ky vgng ve sy mit gii ciia ddng ndi te, thi

hanh ddng ciia nhiing ngudi nay se gay ra sy mit gia
cua ddng ngi te trgn thi trudng.

Hanh vi bay dan phan anh sd ddng nhiing ca nhan
va td chdc tham gia thi trudng hanh ddng theo kigu
an theo hoae di theo xu thi chung eda thi trudng.

Tinh lan truyin the hien tic ddng lan tda khung
hoang tign te ttr cic nudc phit sinh khung hoang trong
khu vyc do cic mdi lign kit thuang mai, tai chinh, diu
tu. Nd ciing ly giai tai sao cac nudc cd quan he thuong
mai va tai chinh trong khu vyc rat dg bi tic ddng lan
truyen khung hoang.

<i>Cdc mo hinh cdnh bdo the he thu ba </i>

Cic md hinh canh bio thg he thii ba dugc xiy dyng
sau cudc khung hoang tai chinh - tign te Chau A 1997
- 1998. Theo Kaminsky va Reinhart (1999), md hinh
canh bio thi he thir ba la md hinh canh bao vg khiing
hoang kep, gin ket giiia khung hoang ngin hang va
khiing hoang tign te thdng qua mdt khu vyc tai chinh
mong manh dg dd vd. Theo hg, ng xau trong he thong
ngan hang thudng la mdt trong nhiing nguyen nhan
gay khung hoang ngan hang nhung thudng di trudc
khung hoang dgn te. Khi khiing hoang tign te xay ra
thi se nhanh chdng tic ddng lam trim trgng khiing
hoang ngan hang, kit qua la ngn kinh tg roi vao khiing
hoang kep.

Cudc khung hoang tign te tai eac nudc Ddng A nam
1997 da cho thay trudc khung hoang, cic nudc Chiu
A cd ngn tang kinh te vi md tuang ddi tdt nhu tang
tradng GDP cao, that nghiep thap, lam phat va chi tieu
ngan sich dugc kiem soit, tham hut tai khoan vang
lai d mire thap, ddng vdn diu tu nudc ngoai chay vao
manh me, chinh tri va kinh tl dn dinh. Tuy nhign,
dang sau hire tranh sing sua dd la nhihig vin dg cila
he thdng ngan hang nhu ng xau tu ngudi vay trong
nudc vdi nhirng khoan vay ngoai tg ngin ban tu nudc
ngoai khdng diing cdng cu phdng ngiia nii ro ty gii.

<i>Cdc mo hinh cdnh bdo the he thii tu </i>

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<i>MitngXudn Tdn Mdo </i>

N H Q N G VAN DE KINH T^ VT MO ^
khung phip luat, luat bao ve quyln sd hiiu, quy dinh

tai ehinh... trong md hinh canh bio. Chinh vi vay, md
hinh thi he thu 4 vl canh bao khung hoang tien te da
ra ddi trgn ca sd kit hgp cac ylu td cila thg he md
hinh thir 1, 2 va 3 va bd sung thgm ygu td thg chg vao
md hinh.

<b>2. Cac chi so'do luong nguy co rui ro Ichung </b>
<b>hoang tien te va ung dung do'i voi dieu kien </b>
<b>Viet Nam </b>

<i>2.1. Cdc chi so cdnh bdo </i>

Cac cudc khung hoang tidn te, ngin hang trgn thg
gidi gan day dgu cho thay miic do gay tdn that to Idn
cua ehung tdi toan bd nen kinh tg ndi chung va loan
bd he thdng ngan hang ndi rigng, chi phi cho tdng thiet
hai chilm khoang 10 - 15% GDP. Chinh vi ly do dd
ma cae chuygn gia kinh te, nha hoach dinh chinh sach
va gidi diu tu ludn quan tam tdi cic tin hieu canh bio
sdm vg rui ro tign te va boat ddng ngan hang.

Kaminsky, Lizondo va Reinhart (1998) da xiy
dyng 105 chi sd va dugc chia thanh 6 nhdm, bao gdm:

- Nhdm khu vyc kinh tg ddi ngoai;
- Nhdm khu vyc tai chinh;

- Nhdm khu vyc san xuat thyc;
- Nhdm khu vyc chi tigu chinh phii;
- Nhdm cic ygu td ciu true va the che;
- Nhdm cac ygu td chinh tri.

Kaminsky va cac ddng sy da xay dung cac chi sd
ndi trgn dya trgn nghign eiiu 26 cudc khung hoang
ngan hang va 76 cudc khung hoang tien te vdi quy md
Idn va nhd tai 20 ngn kinh tg trgn thg gidi (bao gdm
ca cic nudc da va dang phit trign) trong giai doan

1970 - 1995. Hg cho rang tin hieu canh bio khung
hoang tign te hieu qua nhit la cac chi tigu:

- San lugng thyc cua ngn kinh tg (gan day cic

nghign cuu da chil trgng phin tich miie do ehgnh lech
giua san lugng thyc va san lugng tigm nang cua ngn
kinh te);

- Kim ngach xuat khau;

- Miic do ehgnh lech giiia ty gia thyc so vdi dudng
xu thg;

- Gii cd phigu;

- Tdc do tang chi sd CPI;

- Tdc do tang cung tign, hay rdng ban niia la ty sd
cung tign trgn tdng dy trii ngoai te.

Mdt sd chi tigu canh bio khac cung dugc sii dung
nhung kem hieu qua hon la:

- Kim ngach nhap khau;

- Chgnh lech giiia lai suat tien gui thyc tl trong va
ngoai nudc;

- Ty sd giiia tin dung trgn huy dgng vdn;

- Ty sd giiia lai suit cho vay tren lai suat tign gui;
- Tiln gui ngan hang.

Cic chi dgu dugc xay dyng bdi Kaminsky va cic

ddng sy ciia dng dugc xem la cac chi sd quan trgng
cho cic nha kinh tg lya chgn trong viec dinh gii rili
ro khung hoang tign te va boat ddng ngin hang theo
cic phuong phip phi tham sd. Tuy nhign, cac nha
nghien cihi kinh tg gin day da cd nhiing y kign phg
phan each tiep can ciia Kaminsky va cac ddng sy khi
dua ra qui nhigu chi sd canh bio khign cho viec lya
chgn cic ngudng canh bio rui ro khung hoang tien te
va ngin hang trd ngn khd khan va kem hieu qua.

Chinh vi ly do dd ma cac nha nghign cuu gan day
da tign hanh lya chgn mdt sd cic chi sd canh bio quan
trgng dai dien dac trung cho 6 nhdm trong cic md
hinh thi he thu nhit, thir hai, thir ba dg dinh gii xic
suit xay ra khiing hoang tign te va ngan hang trong
cic md hinh Logit hoae Probit, hay cdn ggi la phuang
phip tham sd. Viec sii dung md hinh tham sd cd tie
dung cho bigt thdi diem ed xic suit xay ra khiing
hoang trong vdng 12-24 thing ciing nhu cic ham y
chinh sich trong md hinh.

<i>2.2. Ung dung doi vdi dieu kien Viet Nam </i>
Viec canh bio sdm rUi ro kinh te vi md va khiing
hoang tign te dugc tic gia xiy dyng dya trgn md binh
canh bio sdm (EWS) tham sd. Theo cic nghign cuu
trgn thg gidi gin day, ngn kinh tg cd dau hieu khiing
hoang tign te quy md nhd khi ty gii hdi doii thyc
(RER) vugt qua ngudng trung binh ciia nd tii 2 den 3
lin do lech chuan (se) trong vdng tii 2 - 3 thang lign
tuc trd Ign hoae ty gii hdi doii thyc lech khdi xu thg

cua nd keo dai lign tuc tir 3 thing trd Ign'. Do vay, md
hinh EWS rili ro kinh tg vi md va khiing hoang tidn te
cd dang nhu sau:

<i>2.2.1 Md hinh Logit </i>

Dya trgn dii lieu thu thap theo thing tir 01/1996
-12/2009, md binh bam Logit vdi thdi gian dy bio 12
thing den 24 thing dugc su dung. Vdi khung thdi gian
canh bio trong vdng 12-24 thing, dung ham Logit ta
ed md hinh canh bio sdm rui ro khung hoang tign te
nhu sau:

Crisisj t = 1, ngu ty gii thyc lech khdi muc xu thg
trong vdng 24 thing;

= 0, ngu khdng cd diu bieu vugt khdi miic xu thg
trong vdng 24 thing;

Ggi Crisisj j la xic suit xay ra rui ro khiing hoang
tien te trong vdng 24 thing tdi, md hitih se la:

1
<i>Crisis, </i>

<i>\ + e </i><b>-(«(,+«, </b><i><b>J^l,,,+«2Jf2,J+-.+%^*i.,) ^ ' </b></i>
Md hinh cd 1 bign phu thuge va cic bien dgc lap

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<i>MitngXudn Tdn Mdo </i>

<i>^ N H Q N G V A N D E KINH T £ VT MO </i>

(cic bien dgc lap the hien cic chi sd cinh b i o ve
khiing hoang tien te).

<i>2.2.2 Cdc bien sii dung trong md liinh </i>
<i>2.2.2.1 Biin phu thudc </i>

CrisiSj ( l i y gii tri 1 hay 0 tuy theo chi sd RER cd
\'ugt ngudng cinh bio trong vdng 24 thing.

<i>2.2.2.2 Bien doc lap </i>

Viec lya chgn cic bign dgc lap (chi sd canh bio tien
te) dya tren cic chi sd cua Kaminsky va cic cdng sy
cua dng, cic bign nay phan inh cic yeu td kinh tg giy
ra rui ro khiing hoang tien te. Viec dua cac chi sd canh
bio tign te vao md hinh phai dam bao y nghia thdng
ke va cd dugc cic ggi y chinh sich dg giam thieu va
ban chg khung hoang trong tuong lai.

<i>2.2.3 Ngudn die lieu </i>

Dii lieu vdi quan sit theo thing tir 01/1996-12/2009
dugc thu thip tu Tdng cue Thdng kg, Quy Tign te
Qudc tl (IMF), Ngin hang Phit trien Chau A (ADB)
va Ngin hang Thg gidi (WB).

<i>2.2.4 Ddnh gid chat luang cdnh bdo </i>

<b>M </b>

Dau hieu canh b i o cd riii ro khiing hr hay
khdng cd rui ro khung hoang trong vdng 1 - -'-''•' ^4
thing dugc chia thanh cic diu hieu canh bao theo ma
<i>tran nbu sau: (xem Bdng 2) </i>

<i>Sai lim loai I: ClA+C </i>
Sai lim loai II: B/B-i-D

Ty le canh bao diing: A-i-D/A-i-B-i-C+D
<i>Miic do giy nhieu: (B1B+D)1(AJA+C) </i>

<i>2.2.5 Kit qud thuc nghiem </i>

Kgt qua udc lugng cho thiy cac chi sd canh bio
trong md hinh dgu cd y nghia thdng kg cao d miic 1,
5 va 10%. Trgn co sd udc lugng md hinh canh bio
khung hoang tien te, chiing ta cd thg thay:

- Md hinh 1 gdm 6 bien, trong dd cd 5 bign co y
nghia thdng kg d muc 1 va 10%, giai thich 49% tic
ddng giy rili ro khung hoang tign te tai Viet Nam bao
gdm: bign ddng ty gii, tang trudng tin dung, thim hut
tai khoan vang lai, muc dy trii ngoai hdi va tdc do tang
cung tign.

- Md hinh 2 gdm 7 bign, trong dd cd 6 bign cd y

<b>Bang 1: Giai thich cac chi s6 canh bao anh hudng den xae suSt xay ra khung hoang 1 </b>

<b>Bien doc lap </b>

<b>Bien kinh te trong nudc </b>

Ty gia thyc

Tham hut tai khoan vang lai/GDP
Ty le tang dy ttir ngoai hdi
Ty le xuit khiu

Ng nudc ngoai ngan han/Dy trii ngoai hdi
Tdc do tang trudng tin dung ngi dia
Cung tign M2/dy trir

Tang trudng kinh tg trong nudc

<b>Bien kinh te qudc te </b>

Tdc do tang gii diu thg gidi
Tang trudng kinh te My

<b>Viet tat trong </b>
<b>md hinh </b>

RER
CURENTAC

RESERVE
EXGROWTH
SHORTDEPT
CREDGROWTH

M2RESERVE
GROWTH

OIL_PG
USGROWTH

<b>Gia trj </b>

%
%
%
%
%

%

%
%

7

<b>Tac dong du kien </b>
<b>tdi khiing hoang </b>

Tang
Tang
Giam
Giam
Tang
Tang

Tang/giam
Tang/giam

Tang
Tang/giam

<b>Ngudn </b>

<b>IMF </b>
<b>IMF </b>
<b>IMF </b>
<b>IMF </b>
<b>IMF </b>
<b>IMF </b>
<b>IMF </b>

GSO

<b>IMF </b>
<b>IMF </b>

<b>Bang 2: Cac dau hieu canh bao rui ro </b>

Rui ro ty gii trong vdng 24 thing Khdng ed nii ro vg ty gii trong vdng 24 thing

Dau hieu canh bio _A B

Khdna cd diu higu canh bio _C D

<i>Luu y: Viec ry gid vic0 khoi diim xu thi dihi ra trin 3 thdng Id ddu hieu bdo trudc cua khdn^ tiin ti </i>

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<b>li </b>

<i>MitngXudn Tdn Mdo </i>

N H Q N G VAN DE KINH T S VT M 6 ^

<b>Bang 3: Ket qua mo hinh canh bao sdm tien te (EWS) </b>
<b>Bien </b>

RER

CREDGROWTH
CURRENTAC
RESERVE
M2RESERVE
EXGROWTH
SHORTDEPT
GROWTH
USGROWTH
OIL_PG
He sd khdng ddi
R2

Sai lim loai I
Sai lim loai II
Miie do gay nhigu

EWS(l)
0,0035***

(0,00)
0,0030*

(0,07)
0,1192***

(0,01)
-0,1765***

(0,01)
-6,2827***

(0,00)
0,0033(0,85)

-31,7608***
(0,00)

0,49
0,16
0,09
0,10

<b>EWS(2) </b>

0,0048***
(0,00)
0,0216

(0,60)
0,2531***

(0,00)
-0,1778*

(0,06)
-7,3704***

(0,00)

0,1116***
(0,01)
-0,3544**

(0,05)

-46,9844***
(0,00)

0,56
0,13
0,14
0,16

<b>EWS(3) </b>

0,0046***
(0,00)
0,0314

(0,43)
0,2446***

(0,00)
-0,1915*

(0,08)
-7,7603***

(0,00)

0,1035**(0,02)
-0,3502***

(0,01)
-0,2177*

(0,06)
0,0491*

(0,07)
-41,9990***

(0,00)
0,58
0,16
0,17
0,22

<i>Luu y: P-value nam trong ddu ngogc; *** cdy nghia thdng ke 1 %; ** cdy nghia thdng ke 5%; * cdy </i>
<i>• nghia thdng ke 10%; </i>

nghia thdng kg, giai thich 56% tic ddng giy rui ro
khung hoang tien te bao gdm: bign ddng ty gii, tang
trudng tin dung, tham hut tai khoan vang lai, miie dy
trir ngoai hdi, tde do tang cung dgn, ng ngin ban va
tang trudng kinh tg.

- Md hinh 3 gdm 9 bien, trong dd cd 8 bign cd y
nghia thdng kg giai thieh 58% tie ddng cua cic bien
giy riii ro khiing hoang bao gdm: bign ddng ty gii,
tang trudng tin dung, thim hut tai khoan vang lai, muc
dy trii ngoai hdi, tdc do tang cung dgn, ng ngin ban,
tang trudng kinh tg Hoa Ky va gia dau thg gidi.

Nhiing bign trong md hinh canh bao la nhung nhan
td CO ban dg phan tich kha nang gay ra rui ro tiln te

tai Viet Nam va kign nghj chinh sich trong bdi canh
cac can ddi kinh tg vi md cua Viet Nam ehua thyc sy
ben viing.

<b>Ket luan </b>

Trgn ca sd ly thuyet cac md hinh canh bao thg he
thii nhat, thir hai, va thii ba, md hinh xay dyng trong
bai vigt chi mdi chi dung lai tai md hinh thi he thii
nhit. Viec xay dyng va phit trien cic md hinh canh
bio the he thu hai va ba la hgt siic cin thilt trong bdi
canh thi trudng tai chinh - tign te Viet Nam dang hdi
nhip vao khu vyc va thg gidi. Do dd, tic ddng lan
truygn rui ro khiing hoang tien te va ngin hang tii cic

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<span class='text_page_counter'>(6)</span><div class='page_container' data-page=6>

<i>^ NHUTNG VAN DE KINH TE VT MO </i>

<b>Jl </b>

nude trong khu \yc \ a tren thg gidi
tdi Viet Nam la rit Idn. Han thg
niia, rili ro khiing hoing tign te va
boat ddng ngan hang din dgn tir
cic dgt tin cdng diu co vao ddng
ndi te cd kha nang lan truygn trgn
pham vi tOan ngn kinh tg la rat Idn.
Nhiing dign bign trgn thi trudng
ngoai hdi gan day ciing phan inh
ky vgng va tam ly biy dan trong
viec diu ca va gam giii ngoai te.

Tren ca sd phin tich kgt qua udc
lugng md hinh canh bio rui ro
khung hoang dgn te va cic ly
thuygt vg md hinh canh bao sdm,
de han chg rui ro khung hoang tign
te va ngin hang tai Viet Nam trong
tuong lai, can luu y:

<i>Thie nhdt, thyc tign quan sit cic </i>

nudc cd khung hoang tign te va
boat ddng ngin hang cho thay tang
trudng tin dung cao ludn di trudc
khiing hoang dgn te. Mgt trong
nhiing nguygn nhan khign tang

trudng tin dung cao tai mdt sd nudc
dang phit trien va chuygn dich co
ciu kinh te la viec chi tigu ngan
sach dugc tien te hda. Tang trudng
tin dung cao ludn di kem lam phit,
do dd, muc tigu kigm soit tang
trudng tin dung phai la muc tigu
hanh ddng sd mdt trong mdt ngn
kinh tg bi tign te hda. Bgn canh dd,
viec tang cung dgn can hudng vao
muc tigu uu tign sd 1 la kigm soit
gia chii khdng phii muc tigu tang
trudng kinh te.

<i>Thie hai. Viet Nam trong giai </i>

doan 2001 - 2010 dugc ghi nhin la
mdt trong nhiing nudc cd tdc do
tang trudng cao trong khu vyc. gdp
phin quan trgng trong chign lugc
xda ddi giam ngheo ciia Viet Nam.
Mac dii tang ttudng cao nhung chit
lugng ciia tang trudng thyc sy la
vin dg can dugc quan tam. Tang
trudng Viet Nam hien nay qui phu
thudc vao vdn, do viy, md hinh
tang trudng dya \'ao vdn se khdng
cdn phit huy tic dgng Idn ddi \di
tang trudng cua Viet Nam irons

thdi gian tdi. Trong giai doan 2011
- 2015, Viet Nam khdng nen dat
muc tigu tang trudng kinh tl cao d
mdc 7,5 hay 8,0%/nam. Vi dat muc
dgu tang trudng cao se di kem lam
phit trong bdi canh cac can ddi vi
md cua chiing ta chua bgn virng.
Viet Nam chi ngn hudng tdi miic
tang trudng d muc 7%/nam la phu
hgp vdi nang lye cua nen kinh te,
do dd, se khdng tao i p lye cho he
thdng ngin hang trong viec huy
ddng cic ngudn lye cho tang
trudng. Trong giai doan nay, Viet
Nam ngn tip trung dn dinh cic cin
ddi vi md va tii ciu triic md hinh
tang trudng dg tao da cho tang
trudng cao trong cic giai doan tigp
theo.

<i>Thie ba, tai khoan vang lai cua </i>

Viet Nam trong nhigu nam lign tyc
d trang thai tham hut. Digu nay cd
nghia la tigt kiem ludn thip ban
dau tu trong nude, dg bii dap trong
khoang tham hut nay, binh quin
mdi nam Viet Nam se phai di vay
nudc ngoai mdt khoan vay tuong
ling khoang tii 6,5 - 7% GDP. Diy

ciing la mgt nguyen nhan chinh
khign ng cdng cua Viet Nam dang
d miic cao so vdi nhigu nudc trong
khu vyc. Do dd, chi dgu Chinh
phii can ban chg va dugc kigm soit
mgt cich hieu qua, trinh su dung
diu tu edng dg tao tang trudng
kinh tg. Thyc dgn phit triln cic
nudc tren the gidi cho thiy, diu tu
cdng vao boat ddng kinh tl ludn
kem bieu qua va khdng tao ra tang
trudng Idn. Ngu sii dung diu tu
cdng de tao ra tang trudng khdng
chi cd nguy co diu tu cdng lin it
diu tu khu vyc tu nhan, ma cdn
giy ra lam phit.

<i>Thu tu, xuit khau cua Viet Nam </i>

hien nay la xuat thd cd gii tri thip
la chinh trong khi dd phai nhap
khiu cic ygu td dau vao cho tang
trudng. Do dd. dg ddi mdi md hinh
tang trudng kinh tg mdt cich cd
hieu qua, Viet Nam can cd chien

lugc trong xuit khau ^,°
<i>cic mat hang va dich \ '^^^^ </i>
cd gia tri gia tang tri' . aai nail,
<i>trong khi do co ciu nli '<r Idiau phai </i>

<i>hgp ly, chii trgng ':• : l^hau cac </i>
san phim cd tic aaag nang cao
nang suit lao ddng cua ngn kinh te.
Do vay, tham hut tai khoan vang
lai se thip ban va giam thilu dugc
rui ro khung hoang dgn te. Digu
nay ciing ham y ring trong 10 nam
tdi, 2011 - 2020, chung ta ngn chii
trgng phit ttiln nganh cdng nghiep
phu trg. Nhiing bai hge thanh cdng
hay that bai rut ra trong chign lugc
phit trign cdng nghiep cua cac
nudc di trudc nhu Thai Lan,
Malaysia hay Indonesia ciing cin
dugc tham khao.

<i>Thu ndm, ddi vdi chinh sich tai </i>

khda, Viet Nam can da dang cic
ngudn thu trgn ca sd cic quy dinh
eda phip luat va thyc hien quan ly
ehi tigu ed hieu qua, hudng tdi thu
hep din bdi chi ngan sich dudi 4%
tham cbl la dudi 3% GDP sau nam
2015; cin tang cudng sy kgt hgp
hieu qua va ddng bd giiia chinh
sich tai khda va tign te trong cdng
tic dieu hanh kinh tg vi md.

<i>Thie sdu, cin phai xay dyng mgt </i>

thg chg viing chac, dac biet trong
linh vyc ngan hang. Thyc tien
phit trign khu vyc tai chinh - ngin
hang cua nhigu nudc trgn thg gidi
da cho thay, sy nhiet thanh cua
mdt sd nudc trong viec ty do hda
he thdng tai chinh khi thigu cic
dieu kien can ban cin thigt vg mat
thg chg se lam cho he thdng tai
chinh - ngan hang phai ddi pho
vdi nhigu riii ro ve khung hoang
dd vd ngan hang.a

<i>' Do Viet Nam chua timg xav ra </i>
<i>khung hodng tien te, do vay, tdc gid </i>
<i>gid dinh rdng Viet t^am co ddu hiiu rdi </i>
<i>ro khiing hodng tiin te quy mo nho khi </i>
<i>RER vuot qua ngudng trimg binh ciia </i>
<i>no tu2 - 3 lan se hodc \i,'</t qua diim </i>
<i>xu thi ciia no trong von:; j _ j thane </i>
<i>lien tuc. </i>

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