2009

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<b>DAU Tl/TAI CHiNH </b>

<i>Tlii tfmns chsiHf khom </i>

<i>thms 7/1009 wa kicli bin </i>

<i>iMm 8/2009 </i>

> M ^ ^ a cd 203 ma chflng k h o i n tren ea hai san
^ ^ ^ da tang g i i trong t h i n g 7, chiem ty le
^ h ^ t r e n 50% trong tdng so 375 ma chflng
k h o i n dang niem yet tren thi trfldng.

Ke't thuc 23 phien giao dich eua t h i n g 7, da
cd 12 phien giam diem tren s i n HOSE va 14 phien
giam diem tren s i n HNX. Tuy nhien, ca hai san
diu da ke't thuc t h i n g 7 vdi mfle diem tang v i day
l i t h i n g tang diem thfl 5 lien tie'p cua thi trfldng.
Cu the, VN-Index da tang 18,47 diem (4,12%)
sau 23 phien giao dich cua t h i n g 7 de vfltfn len

<i><b>J / </b></i>

<i>ThS. NGUYEN TH! NGOC TU </i>

<i>Cong ty Co phin ChUng khoin Cong Nghiep Viet Nam </i>

dflng d mfle 466,76 diem. Trong kbi dd,
HNX-Index cung duy tri mfle t a n g nhe 4,87 diem
(3,27%) so vdi t h i n g 6 khi ke't thuc phien cudi
t h i n g d mfle 153,91 diem.

<b>Thanh kho^n gi^m mgnh </b>

Tuy nhien, tinh thanh khoan cua thi trfldng
lai phan anh rd net n h a t nhflng dien bien eua thi
trfldng trong t h i n g 7. Da ed nhflng phien giao
dich NDT gom b i n g chd gia cao, nhflng ben canh
dd cung ed n h i l u phien Iflpng dfl ban ngap tran
tren ea hai s i n v i keo tinh thanh k h o i n cua thi

trfldng xud'ng mfle thap.

Khdi dau cho sfl di xud'ng trong
t b a n h khoan l i phien giao dich ngay
09/07/2009 khi chudi 46 phien lien
tie'p g i i tri giao dieh tren s i n HOSE
ludn dat tren 1 nghin ty ddng bi chan
lai. Cd phien chi ghi n h a n g i i tri
giao dich tren san HOSE d mfle htfn
700 ty ddng.

Thd'ng ke cho thay, da cd
794.555.850 cd phieu va chflng chi
quy dflpc chuyen nhfltfng trong t h i n g
7 thdng qua s i n HOSE, tfltfng flng
gii tri giao dich la 28.902,79 ty ddng,
g i i m manh 33,19% ve khd'i Iflpng va
33,17% v l g i i tri giao dich so vdi
t h i n g 6. Tinh trung binh, da ed 34,54
trieu dtfn vi chflng k h o i n vdi gii tri
giao dich la 1,25 nghin ty ddng dflpc

giao dich trong mdi phien.

Trong khi dd, s i n HNX cung da
ghi n h a n 383.847.086 cd phieu dflpc
chuyen nhupng trong t h i n g 7 vdi gii
tri giao dich la 12.146,557 ty ddng,
giam 72,71% v l khd'i lupng va giam
47,93% ve gia tri giao dich so vdi

<b>Cong nghe ngan hang </b>

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<b>DAU Tl/TAI CHiNH | </b>
t h i n g 6. Tinh trung binh, da cd 16,68 trieu co

phieu vdi gia tri giao dich la 528 trieu ddng dUtfc
giao dich trong mdi phien.

Nguyen n h a n khien eho thanh k h o i n cua thi
trudng sut giam eung da dupc n h i l u chuyen gia
dua ra nhflng n h a n dinh. Ngudi lac quan thi cho
rang dd l i mot t a t ye'u khi thi trudng vfla t r a i
qua mdt giai doan t a n g q u i ndng, ngfldi bi quan
thi cho r a n g sfl suy g i i m cua t h i trfldng b a t
ngudn tfl t a m ly cua NDT kbi hp cbo r a n g chinh
sich t h a t chat t i l n te da chan ddng tien dd v i o
thi trfldng.

Tuy nhien, nhflng phien trdi day cua thi
trudng trong t u i n cud'i t h i n g 7 da chflng minh
rang v i n ludn cd mdt ngudn t i l n khdng nhd sfin

sang chiy v i o thi trudng khi cd ctf hpi.

92 ma tang gia tren san HOSE...

T h i n g 7 cung chflng kie'n mpt loat cuoc chia
tay tren s i n HOSE vdi viec c i c cd phieu ALT,
SGH v i VTA chuyen sang niem yet t r e n s i n
HOSE. Cung vdi dd, phien giao dich ngay
31/07/2009 cung la phien giao dich cud'i cung ddi
vdi cd phieu BBT cua CTCP Bdng Bach Tuyet
trflde khi ed phieu n i y t a m ngflng giao dich tren
s i n HOSE do khdng thflc hien dung quy che' cdng
bd' thdng tin.

Khdng chi cd cic ed phieu phai chia tay s i n
HOSE, da cd 3 ma cd phieu mdi dflpc dfla v i o
niem yet tren s i n n i y trong t h i n g 7. Dd la cd
phieu CTG ehinh thflc giao dieh tfl 16/07/2009,
CSG chinh thflc giao dich tfl 10/07/2009 va DHC
chinh thflc giao dich tfl 23/07/2009.

Tinh den nay c i 3 "tan binh" nay deu giam
gii so vdi g i i tham chieu, trong dd cd phieu CTG
l i ma giim nhieu n h a t vdi mfle giam 10.300 ddng
(20,60%), cdn 39.700 ddng/ep. Cd phieu DHC g i i m
3.100 ddng (16,31%), cdn 15.900 ddng/ep v i cd
phieu CSG g i i m 2.000 ddng (12,5%) cdn 15.400
ddng/ep.

Khdng ke nhflng ma da ehuyen s i n , t h i n g 7

cung da chflng kie'n 92 ma t a n g g i i t r e n s i n
HOSE, cung vdi dd l i 69 ma g i i m g i i va 5 ma
dflng gia tham chieu.

Da cd sir phan hda rd ret trong nhdm c i e ma
cd phieu ldn, trong dd uu the' thude v l eic ma cd
phieu thupe n g i n h s i n xuat, nhflng ma dfltfc eho
l i hfla ben sfl tang trfldng vflng chac khi thflc sfl
"ngam" tinh bieu q u i cua gdi kich ciu trong nhflng
t h i n g cdn lai ciia n a m 2009.

Dd l i e i c cd phieu nhfl: VNM t a n g 34.000
ddng (36,95%) len 126.000 ddng/ep; DPM t a n g
4.900 ddng (11,55%) len 47.300 ddng/ep; HPG
tang 5.500 ddng (10,18%) len 73.000 ddng/ep. Ben
canh dd l i nhflng ma: HAG t a n g 5.000 ddng
(7,35%) len 73.000 ddng/ep; FPT tang 6.500 ddng
(9,28%) len 76.500 ddng/ep; PVF tang 800 ddng
(1,92%) len 42.300 ddng/ep; STB tang 1.500 ddng
(4,29%) len 36.400 ddng/ep.

O chilu ngflpc lai, mot so' ma cd phieu ldn da
phai giam g i i nhfl: BVH giam 11.600 ddng
(21,88%) cdn 41.400 ddng/ep; PVD g i i m 5.500
ddng (6,54%) cdn 78.500 ddng/ep; VCB g i i m 6.000
ddng (10%) cdn 54.000 ddng/ep va giam m a n h
n h a t la VIC vdi mfle giam 20.000 ddng (26,84%),
cdn 54.500 ddng/ep.

Dfldi day l i top e i c ma tang/giam v i ed

KLGD nhilu n h a t tren s i n HOSE trong t h i n g 7:

... va 111 ma tang gia tren san IHNX

Da cd them 6 ma ed phieu mdi dflpc niem yet
t r e n s i n HNX chi trong t h i n g 7. Dd la e i c ma
ALT, HOM, MDC, S74, SGH v i CTS. D i n g ehu y
trong so nay la cd phieu CTS eua CTCP Chflng
k h o i n Cdng Thfltfng vdi htfn 8,9 trieu co phieu
niem yet v i chinb thflc giao dich trong ngay cud'i
cflng cua t h i n g 7.

Day l i ma ed phieu cua cdng ty chflng k h o i n
thfl 5 niem yet tren s i n HNX sau BVS, KLS, HPC
v i SHS va la ma thfl 7 niem yet tren thi trfldng
ne'u tinh c i SSI va HCM tren s i n HOSE.

<b>5 ma CK tang gia nhieu nhat (Gia) </b>

MCK
<b>VNM </b>
<b>VIS </b>
<b>VSC </b>
<b>BMP </b>
<b>SJS </b>

Gia
126
52
82

81
112

Thay doi
34
20.7

17.5
16.5
16

<b>% </b>
36.95
66.13
27.13
25.58
16.66

KLGD
5.807.140
5.583.560
799.660
1.854.270
6.267.900

<b>5 ma CK giam gi^ nhieu nhat </b>

MCK
<b>VIC </b>
<b>NSC </b>

<b>BVH </b>
<b>CTG </b>
<b>SFI </b>

Gia
54.5
36.1
41.4
39.7
40

Thay ddi
-20
-11.9
-11.6
-10.3
-8.5

<b>% </b>
-26.84
-24.79
-21.88
-20.6
-17.52

KLGD
1.884.040
1.513.640
t,0.759.310
16.937.350

2.250.260

<b>Cong nghe ngan hang </b>

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<b>DAU Tl/TAI CHiNH </b>

<b>5 ma CK c6 KLGD nhieu nhat </b>

MCK
<b>STB </b>
<b>SSI </b>
<b>SAM </b>
<b>VFMVFl </b>

<b>VCB </b>

KLGD
125.372.460

46.711.270
33.470.130
31.723.880
27.026.470

Gia
36.4

66
31.1
12.7

54

Thay ddi
1.5

2
3
1
-6

<b>% </b>
4.29
3.12
10.67

8.54
-10

Khdng ke cd phieu CTS, da ed 111 ma ed
phieu tang gii tren s i n HNX trong t h i n g 7. Cung
vdi dd l i 88 ma cd phieu g i i m gii, 9 ma dflng g i i
v i 1 ma khdng cd giao dich (HSC).

H i u bet eic ma cd phieu ed anh hfldng ldn
diu tang g i i ngoai trfl "dng ldn" ACB giam 3.200
ddng (6,4%) cdn 46.800 ddng/ep; SHS g i i m 3.400
ddng (8,67%) edn 35.800 ddng/ep; v i VNR g i i m
1.400 ddng (4,65%) cdn 28.700 ddng/cp. Cung vdi
dd l i cd phieu BTS dflng g i i tham chieu 14.400
ddng/ep.

Cdn lai cic ma cd phieu ldn k h i c deu tang g i i
nhfl KBC tang 2.400 ddng (7,69%) len 33.600
ddng/cp; PVS tang 2.300 ddng (6,63%) len 37.000
ddng/ep; PVI tang 2.400 ddng (7,79%) len 33.200
ddng/cp; VCG tang 1.400 ddng (4,82%) len 30.400
ddng/ep; TBC tang 3.200 ddng (12,95%) len 27.900
ddng/cp; BCC tang 600 ddng (3,75%) len 16.600
ddng/cp; BVS tang 2.500 ddng (4,85%) len 54.000
ddng/cp; KLS tang 6.800 ddng (24,37%) len 34.700
ddng/cp; HPC tang 1.900 ddng (7,42%) len 27.500
ddng/cp; v i SHB tang 1.800 ddng (5,45%) len
34.800 ddng/cp.

<b>Thj trUdng </b>
<b>UpCoM </b>

Nhin lai 23
phien giao dich cua
t h i n g 7, thi trfldng
UPCoM da cd 1
t h i n g giao dieh
khdng t h a n h edng
khi mat di 1,58 diem
(2,03%) vdi 13 phien
giam diem va 10
phien tang diem.

Tinh chung
trong t h i n g qua da

cd 6,84 trieu cd phieu
dflpc chuyen nhflpng

tren s i n UPCoM vdi g i i tri giao dich la 91,43 ty
ddng.

Thing 7 cung d i n h dau st/ xuat hien cua 2 ma
ed phieu mdi l i ABI v i BTC, nang tdng so ma
chirng khoin niem yet tai thi trfldng n i y len 12 ma.

<b>Phan ti'ch ky thu|it </b>
<b>VN-Index </b>

Dfldng Stochastic Monentum Index nam trong
vung chi b i o dfldi 30, khu vfle cd xu hfldng tang.

MACD tin hieu di len, tin hieu tang.

Dfldng Williams' % R dang n a m tren dfldng
chi b i o -20, dfldng Williams' %R ket hpp vdi
dfldng MACD, tin hieu di len, xu hfldng tang diem.

Dfldng Swing- Index c i t dfldng chi b i o 0 theo
hfldng di len xu hfldng tang diem

<b>Haste-Index </b>

Dfldng Stochastic Monentum Index nam trong
vung chi b i o dfldi 30, khu vfle cd xu hfldng tang.

MACD tin bieu di len, tin hieu tang.

Dfldng Williams' % R dang n a m trong dfldng
ehi b i o (-80,-20), ke't htfp vdi dfldng MACD tao
t h a n h xu hfldng t a n g diem.

Dfldng Swing- Index cat dfldng chi b i o 0 theo
hfldng di len, xu hfldng tang diem

<b>Khuyen nghj (kjeh b^n cho thang 8) </b>

Ddng t i l n khdng rdi thi trfldng - dd la dilu
da dfltfc k h a n g dinh trong nhflng phien giao dich
g i n day.

Tbdng tin k h i quan v l GDP (tdng s i n
p h a m qud'c npi) quy II cua My cbi cdn sut giam
1% so vdi cflng ky n a m trflde, cd the hy vpng
day l i quy t a n g trfldng a m cud'i eung cua nen
kinh te My. Nhd vao bfle t r a n h k i n h te my hdi
Vn-index

95350
57200

<b>Cong nghe ngan hang </b>

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<b>DAU Tl/TAI CHiNH </b>

Haste- Index

phtic, lpi nhuan doanh nghiep ldn cua my t a n g
kha m a n h trd lai, c i c ebi b i o v l n h i d a t t a n g
trfldng lien tuc trd lai, t h a t nghiep dang g i i m
dan, kinh te My t a n g trfldng a m 1% trong quy
11/2009, mfle t a n g trfldng nay td't htfn so vdi dfl
bio am 1,5% cua cic chuyen gia. Ve t a n g trfldng
kinh te n h i l u kha n a n g trong quy tdi r a t kha
quan va My se ed m i u xanh GDP trong quy 3
tdi l i dieu g i n nhfl chac chan, quy II eua 2009
n i y h i u b e t deu ddng chung quan diem l i d i y
cua khung b o i n g My.

Mpt trong nhflng lo ngai ldn n h a t cua NDT
trong giai doan hien nay chinh l i k h i n a n g t h a t
chat tin dung cua ehinh phu, d i n den viec thu
hep ddng tien dd vao TTCK se khie'n cho thi
trfldng khd t a n g trfldng m a n h vi g i n day cum
tfl "lam p h i t " dang dflpc n h a e de'n ngay c i n g
nhilu. Them v i o dd, trong t h i n g 5 n g a n h i n g
nha nflde (NHNN) da g i i m lai s u i t t r e n t i e n
gfli dfl trfl b a t budc b a n g t i e n ddng tfl 3,6%
xud'ng cdn 1,2%/nam, chinh phu dieu chinb t a n g
trfldng GDP 6,5% xud'ng 5,5%, trong t h i n g 7

<i>(tiep theo trang 33) </i>

C i e D N N W Viet Nam hien nay r a t khd
khan tie'p can vd'n ngan bang vi cd nhflng rao can
nhat dinh, de giai quye't va thao gd nhflng rao

can can cd sfl phdi hpp tfl 3 phia: N h i nflde,
doanh nghiep va ngan hang nbu da de cap d tren.
Cd nhu vay, mdi p h a t trien dupe cic D N N W va
cic D N N W t r a n h dupc si/ p h i san trong dieu
kien nen kinh te bi t i e ddng cua khung hoang tai

NHNN g i i m ty le
t a n g t r u d n g tin dung
30% xud'ng 25% - 27%
l i nhflng bflde di
hfldng de'n viee d a t
dflpc muc tieu v l GDP,
kiem s o i t l a m p h i t v i
c h a t Iflpng tin dung
cho ca n a m 2009.

Dpng t h i i t a n g
cfldng g i i m sat tien te
dflpc thflc bien se i n h
hfldng trflde n h a t den
lpi nhuan cua he thd'ng
ngan h i n g thfltfng mai
(NHTM). Sir tang manh
cua cbi phi vd'n d i u vio
trong khi d i u ra bi han che' bdi ty le tang trfldng
khdng che d mfle 27% va lai suat t r a n khien cho
lpi nhuan bien cua cic ngan b i n g giam.. Dieu nay
se tao ra sfl an toan c i n thie't cho he thd'ng tin
dung, d i m b i o mfle tang trfldng b i n vflng htfn.

Sfl g i i m s i t chat tfl NHNN budc cac NHTM
phai he't sfle can trpng trong viec huy ddng d i u
v i o va g i i i ngan cic k h o i n vay. Qua dd muc tieu
g i i m s i t chat Iflpng tin dung cung phan n i o dflpc
thflc hien. N g o i i ra, lai s u i t ctf b i n van gifl
nguyen 7%/nam trong t h i n g 8 nay eho thay chfla
p b i i bd hep t i l n te v i l a m p h i t n a m nay v i n
trong t i m an toan.

Tdi cbo rang se ed sfl bung nd sdng trflde ky
nghi 11 2/9/2009, bdi le theo thdng le Viet Nam
tren eic s i n chflng k h o i n thfldng cd sdng trflde
mdt ky nghi l l ldn. Them vao dd, trong dip nay
cdn cd nhflng tin hieu kha quan tfl chd bfle tranh
kinh te the gidi s i n g sua, TTCK the gidi vfltft
dinh g i n nha't, chflng k h o i n My trien vpng va
quan trpng nhat la xu hfldng lpi nhuan tang manh
cua cdng ty niem yet*

chinh va suy t h o i i kinh te The gidi. D i n g va Nha
nflde Viet n a m da x i e dinh: " P h i t trien cic
D N N W l i mdt sfl Ifla chpn dung dan t r e n eon
dfldng cdng nghiep hda va hien dai hda dat nflde",
do vay ea he thd'ng chinh tri Viet Nam can cd
nhflng chu trfltfng, chinh s i c h va bien phap cii
the de ho trp cic D N N W p h i t trien, mpt trong
nhflng van de ctf ban la tiep can vd'n tin dung cua
cac ngan h a n g "

<b>Cong nghe ngan hang n i </b>

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