Tài liệu CÁI NHÌN TỔNG THỂ VỀ LẠM PHÁT Ơ ̉ VIỆT NAM TỪ TRƯỚC ĐẾN NAY ppt

Nguyn Thnh Hu, Trưng Đi Hc Ngân Hng TpHCM
TIỂU LUẬN MÔN KINH TẾ VĨ MÔ


 
  !"#$%&"'(&)*&+'
 !"
#$%&''()*+,'-./!0
1*23',456'780*(#89:7*;<
5= =.'9:>9-!556&:,?5&
@'//$/.;%;-9A+,B2C!
7%'9A0<,@'D-9A)8,&',
5E& (A 7/&52:9A)8 :lm
phát2F<lm phát5 :8%+,456 :9A
(>/>7/DG(05 B969:B<'H7
5=,I$,$I2FHlm phát,#J :9+&:@'/:
D :9K+/+2
L7/&$5':%8,IH@16(HM8N
% :B '82O5B*H 7/&-9-,/&<
)41H :8K!AIP2
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SK!55T/%U( :* 7/&'
:&N9#V BH9B:5B2L7/& 7::9A6
(+*'HWXX@'&8+8,+'$:
)WXXYZWXX : 7/&95=I5['(H2\ '
&+@1T9:>)4 7/&+/+9S:
8+7*$9:%G2
]A/&9A!> 7/&* :0A/%&N%
A*5=0IP+ 7/&^MP9A_`,'!"-!&.!/&"01*234
%",&5'6&74&8&9:;#)(!!7<` ::!>+S2
= >#) #"!/"'?!#@A

a bH c .9 7/&/19:&&7SS 7
/&'6&5WXX2
a d%&'> 7/&'89:&HWXXeMA$/&/9:
,4U1',$,9:H 7/&'WXX2
 B
 C",'!'64
Lạm phát5=4f :( !K>&+,
'8,'$62g>&+, :&%S+A$
&:'&9:@49K',2d'9.*,M$* 7/&,#f :
1
Nguyn Thnh Hu, Trưng Đi Hc Ngân Hng TpHCM
A$P:'&9:@49K+,&2F<89:N:
$&5N:,&&+79h<1*! 7/&2
Lạm phát?<< :((*$(>'5B+"82
, 7/&894<:*::'&@49K
2b*<# :, 7/&T/$:*:"8
'G:'&9:@49KH423&5=9B 7/& :$/&2
Giảm phát :S7>&+,$MH !K2F?
<$/& : 7/&9B&412i$/&56MA,,
(*'&*SH2
= ,#2D&"A<(&1*234%",&
K.Marx'U` 7/& :(:0*&,!& " 5#-6
A*%7 :'&$j>&k9P9:9/1/H 7($/lM8
-&A/'@152
Theo Milton FriedmanSI_m 7/& :9&$9:,n'
@:o2p'U_m 7/& # #9:%'6? :85=o2
Kinh tế hc quan niệm_ 7/& :( !^'6+>&
+,23'8, 7/& :(A&4456*$(>
+"2
E /A<?!!"F!/F<97234%",&

a) Lm phát theo thuyết tiền tệ:
L7/&@'' :5=M$*,'
:2356=/:*M$*,1:35
>8 5=95=I&09+,<%V;/1K
1(&:5B*8@K+&b3g2
q 5=gW)0',)5,4/@h
&2
b) Lm phát do cầu kéo:
• )>0@h 7/&P : 7/&0,n'* 7
/&02rH0@'_
a 3),H 5= 5:jgkst3)(H$st7'&/
 7/&2
a b'NH8 1*<jkst@1T$ D9
8st1 c7*H"A&2
c) Lm phát do chi phí đẩy
• q/($MA,@'(ul*&$ !st!P :
7/&@'/l*2
2
Nguyn Thnh Hu, Trưng Đi Hc Ngân Hng TpHCM
a 5 5&@0G*!9. stl*/($
MAst7'&/ &st 7/&@'/l*2
3#>J  7/&5(_
jv

Zv
X
kMXX
v
X


3'_3LLvs3J  7/&jwk
v

sFJ(H&$+6,x!>
v
X
sFJ(H&$6,x5B2
3x^'>8+J  7/&:56 7/&% '7_
 Lạm phát vừa phảiDP : 7/&'(HJ  7/&@5BXwy2
L7/&>8:*,#1*-&8&,<H9B,2
 Lạm phát phi mã,>55H9BJ W'Nz'(H
82L'7:*,/&<V(u1*-%@7,
!P2
 Siêu lạm phát, 7/&8% !9BH8'95=M 7/&/
2r! 7/&56M$*-7!P9:(1(;23*
!T?,M$*2
G "H#&93!/234%",&5'6&74IJKLM=NNO
qK!/&<,S 7/&%8&$!@V
:5=56,#<&,G2F< ##9B5,
2F9S9.*H)4,9f#S&5B/$A'PS
S%8+J(H&!@V'&@l.2
F<<I 7/&I&'7!%<5(_
Giai đoạn 1986-1993:
F<'7ZXH1:!,
9h'7':'+8,+'$':@,Z
4ZM8(( 0+8)Ji&ZL5Z3{2L7/&
9h>z'(H_ :YY|YweY :zWzw :zzw2
}"%4A&,/+/$:)%A;@f2
7(H&A :&9:9:'Ic~yA/zW 0('9B0
j{"y 70('9B"y 7k2}"d

!K%4A&('9B•rd@'S7)B(>%UX 0(>
+"?j€*4Xyb}C3Z3}:*zyy{kS7# '&@•
0P9:/)%9.& !K ^'2F& "9H5‚d~RdƒS
(>G'9:7 ",H*G('9B%1*65 7 :"
9#VIPU 5=:./,l2
3
3LLvs
Nguyn Thnh Hu, Trưng Đi Hc Ngân Hng TpHCM
}<M'**<SS/+5(&)B
%%H8 '7&%/&/M7 7/&2M<t l 1'",'$9: 
(A9*5=+1:95=> 7/&/ :< (A5=@'2
3&|b (A",'$@1TBI19
,2 5=7>zXXE"2Hai l %%G89.
&,n/j&%S569:&A/,&k/0 B9.&5=4
562
Ba l &/@K(&;N21:,#/&:
!:@V&9*=$1(&$%$'1H2
B>n l (&H(A '7235B8 (A"8
@_bH(A@':5BI*49:H(A456('('"7e
HAH(A:* :82g8'-I*4I
P T:* :9 00!7*B GE&•rdyd9:'H2
r*)J&&8A7&15723J ./(!('9B
MA,l ./>$7|Yw'MH051%U9:'
9:.MA(!9:'X2
    X 
./(! Z|Yw ZzXw ZXw „W{w ZzWw
} 7/&JD|XwW$DY{w9:z
JD{Ww'5A@>7, 0>A2
Giai đoạn 1994 – 2000
,,;/K5=S7S(*'&7>5

' !K9:5H':@23H85,%SI1'7
zZ{ :Ww9:,$/K7,{7E 5
{w,&:'74(&f9/$,H8
5'I&&9:-$/&/A/%&<, 7/&23*!
K<YMA/&*!1'$5
+8,+'$:73&LH85,?5
> 7/&+ !K$2}& 5c :0HMA
5=$/&#IJ(H&189:&'&Y
9:2
35jidvwkL7/&jFv~kjwk2
{ { WY
 z |{
Y W zY
 { W
 | X
4
Nguyn Thnh Hu, Trưng Đi Hc Ngân Hng TpHCM
3', :'7/K"+&,%4,+'$N
F1…S, 7!:MH23H8idv&0
J7|zw',J(H&$ !K2g> 7/&&J :
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3&W_w 3&|_ZXw 3&_ZXzw
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I&(& (A8#KIP<:(&IH
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3'\ (& BA :&/@K&$/&/m,0o
U,;/KS7$/&2-$/&/5=' :7A'(H
 :| 0$ (A05:5B 5'56 '8',
9:5B%U&$:* :923*!'A*I$&/
@K&$/&/:* :AA/21::5B !/7 (A
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,*,9*<!9:052
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W9:$ :Xw23*!9h :*:D
,$&$/&'B2
Giai đoạn 2001 - 2005
3H855H'PN+6(HM85=$9:
/&<_3J  7/&&'7:*?@0 !XwWXXX !
{wWXX|jWXXJ(H&>XwWXXW :|wWXXz :zXwk23*
!%!7(/&<7+,WXX|J(H&!@V :
{wJ  7/&95=5[@'IH8j{wk2WXX{J  7/&>
{w2
Giai đoạn 2006 – nay
 34%",&&9P!/!"Q!/!R4=NNLM=NNK
5
Nguyn Thnh Hu, Trưng Đi Hc Ngân Hng TpHCM
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:9!>{X+Q3R23SS5,9:05I&,

':8'-5B%4 7A71…*2
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/K5=.I$ 7/&"./,EX,E]]95=I&>@,9:95=M
>idv2||w23&{9:WXXFv~ ./,E KW{Ww9:Ww
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9D2w1* :>'A'9DYI2F/+,'7
$ 7/&MH>8-(H9:'WXX'N.A9:'WXX2
3S<*!11* 7/&<T/T@
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56B :&MA,lj&MA,l7'%SI1+5B
WXXY!{w('9BWXXk,n'^'09 5'5B'
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,#<,4/2
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H9B2*!1&+@'B@0"563&L
-7'9S(=AV/ :"7'MA,l'
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9B5B2
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@49KA : 5/l^'2i& 5/lH
WXXYWw('9BHWXX2
 34%",&#"'%" )X<W
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/#n/ˆk!B'-01*723',,
5B/K8A B9:'./,lj./,lXwidvk&*!
./ :&456'5B2FJ!N:M@0 :

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&@08/&,E KXX# yV%&'86,x,#*!)+4
56 5=':023'WXX&@0 !K ! 0 5=&
H&(=_WX# zX|{# yVˆ59.*J'9D&
@00{Xw2?($MA@05@',‰. P@0D7
!+*/$./@0:/lEP'',7./
,l2
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'5B?,#<5=9S,(>,$'&(u$
6
Ngun Tng Cc Thng Kê
Nguyn Thnh Hu, Trưng Đi Hc Ngân Hng TpHCM
MH9:&,#2q 5=,#0(u5=J
^'5B5!'&0A//V=/9B!@V9<9P 7
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9:&*!! B'
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:* :-($/l'75
+7'+9:"6
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1*;;,#/$ :*!1
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*2€(&%$(TA*
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0 &  : !  B 
,#4 > 7/& '5 
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&+&:j 7/&@'
/l*k*!1AIP1*

!%V) 7/& :
7/&@'*!12
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*  H  1  c  56  !  @V  A/
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'        7  1*2  i&  $
 '7:*!! 
!B? !KMH2

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9
Nguyn Thnh Hu, Trưng Đi Hc Ngân Hng TpHCM
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X2aX2WYw2
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10
Nguyn Thnh Hu, Trưng Đi Hc Ngân Hng TpHCM
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 34%",&SP<(A&^#TAUVP
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 34%",&&8!/A<?!!"F!&'*!&6

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11
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