Đánh giá vai trò của xuất khẩu thủy sản đối với tăng trưởng kinh tế Việt Nam thông qua mô hình hiệu chỉnh sai sốTom tat LA-English

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING
FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY
--------***--------

SUMMARY OF PHD THESIS

ASSESSING THE ROLE OF SEAFOOD EXPORTS TO
VIETNAM'S ECONOMIC GROWTH THROUGH
THE ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

MAJOR: INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
Code: 9310106

LÊ HẰNG MỸ HẠNH

Hà Nội – 2022


The thesis is completed at Foreign Trade University

Science instructors: Assoc Prof, Dr. Nguyen Xuan Minh

Reviewer 1:
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Reviewer 2:
................................................................................................
Reviewer 3:
.................................................................................................

The research shall be presented in front of the council
meeting at Foreign Trade University

On

This thesis can be consulted at the National Library
and the Library of Foreign Trade University


LIST OF PUBLICATIONS
1. Building a vector error correction model to assess the impact of exports
on economic growth, Asia Pacific Economic Review. ISSN 0868-3808.
December 2020 issue (co-authored).
2. Vietnam’s seafood export situation and orientation of seafood industry
development, Asia Pacific Economic Review. ISSN 0868-3808. Issue
591 June 2021
3. Analyzing the relationship between seafood exports and economic
growth of Vietnam's fisheries sector, 2021, Industry and Trade
Magazine, ISSN 0866-7756, June 15, 2021
4. Evaluating the impact of exports on economic growth, ISSN 2615-8973
Review of Financial, July 2, 2021


1

INTRODUCTION
1. Rationale of the research
In more than 30 years of economic reform in our country, export has always been
considered by the Party and state as an important field to promote the country's
economic development. Exports have contributed to the economic restructuring that
drives production development, while promoting national economic growth through a
variety of roles. First, exports create favorable conditions for other industries to have
opportunities to develop. Secondly, exports create the possibility of expanding the

consumption market, contributing to production development and stability. And finally,
exports facilitate the expansion of the ability to provide inputs for production, improving
domestic production capacity.
Overall, the relationship between exports and economic growth has so far been a
topical topic, of interest to researchers. Although most studies support the view that
exports promote economic growth, there is little skepticism about the impact of exports
on economic growth. Many models such as ECM, VECM or ADRL, FMOLS are used
by researchers to assess the effects of exports on economic growth (Goh, Sam and
McNown, 2017; Sothan, 2016; Pradhan, K.C.,2016; Jaunky, V.C., 2011; Lim and Ho,
2013; Shahbaz and Rahman, 2014; Dritsaki, 2014; Majid and Elahe, 2016; Tsitourasa
and Nikas, 2016, Majid and Elahe 2016; Tsitourasa and Nikas, 2016). Many studies also
analyze the impact of exports of a particular sector on a country's economic growth. The
results of the models mostly suggest a positive causality between exports and economic
growth whether using multinational data or using data from a single country, or using
data from an industry that impacts economic growth.
For Vietnam, seafood exports are one of the 10 industries with the highest export
turnover, contributing much to the national GDP. The fact that Vietnam is officially a
member of the WTO has created favorable conditions for the expansion of Vietnam's
seafood export market to the world. In order to have a solution for Vietnam to develop
sustainable seafood exports, the theme "Assessing the role of seafood exports to Vietnam's
economic growth through the error correction model" was selected by doctoral students as
the subject of his doctoral thesis research. Through this thesis, the PhD student wishes to
re-systemually the research models on the issue, and proposes the application of the error
correction model (VECM) and the fully calibrated squared regression model (FMOLS) in


2

assessing the impact of seafood exports on economic growth, clarifying the role of seafood
exports in the economic growth of the sector as well as contributing to Vietnam's economic

growth. Thereby offering solutions to promote seafood exports, in order to affirm the role
of seafood exports in the economic growth of the fishery sector in particular, and for
national economic growth in general.
2. Research purposes
Common goal: On the basis of theoretical systematization to identify transmission
channels in the relationship between exports and economic growth, and also an overview
of experimental studies that have been conducted in the world to select an experimental
research model on the relationship between exports and economic growth in Vietnam.
Since then, the topic applies the FMOLS model and the VECM model to assess the
impact of seafood exports and Vietnam's economic growth.
Specific goals:
- Systematization of theoretical basis and theoretical model of exports and
economic growth
- Proposing a model to study the impact of seafood exports on industry economic
growth and on Vietnam's economic growth.
- Applying the FMOLS model and the VECM model to experimentally study the
impact of seafood exports on vietnam's fisheries economic growth and economic
growth, along with the transmission channels in the model are multilateral real exchange
rates, foreign direct investment, labor and commercial openness.
- Proposing solutions to strengthen seafood export activities to promote economic
growth in the coming time.
3. Research questions
In order to achieve the research objectives set and on the basis of the analysis of
the research situation related to the content and approach of the thesis topic, the thesis
author identifies some basic research questions as the basis for the study of the content
of the thesis. Those questions are:
- What has been the situation of Vietnam's seafood exports since 2000?
- How does Vietnam's seafood exports contribute to the economic growth of
fisheries in the period of 2000 - 2019?
- Will seafood exports affect Vietnam's economic growth in the period 2000-

3

2019?
4. Subjects and scope of study
4.1. Study subjects:
The subjects of the thesis are seafood exports and the role of seafood exports for
the growth of the fishery sector and for Vietnam's GDP.
4.2. Scope of study
Space scope: the topic of conducting research on the relationship between seafood
exports and economic growth in Vietnam.
Time range: Study of seafood export data, economic growth and macroeconomic
variables for the period from 2000 to 2019.
In 2000, Vietnam's economic had many notable milestones. In July 2000,
Vietnam and the United States signed a bilateral trade agreement, officially opening a
new step in trade between the two countries. Setting the stage for negotiating and
signing free trade agreements with other countries is a major boost to Vietnam's import
and export activities.
Export turnover in 2000 reached 14.3 billion USD and reached an average of 184
USD per year per capita, exceeding that of a poor country. The export growth rate was
24.1%, 3.6 times higher than the GDP growth rate. Also in 2000, seafood exports for
the first time achieved a 23% increase, surpassing 1.4 billion USD, which is one of the
industries with remarkable growth.
Content range: Within the scope of this study, the author studies the following
contents:
- Review the situation of export activities, but the impact does not discuss policies.
- Consider the relationship between seafood exports along with multilateral
exchange rate transmission channels, foreign direct investment, labor and trade
openness. Other control variables were not considered in this study.

- The thesis focuses on assessing the contribution of seafood exports to the growth
of the sector and of the national economy.
5. Research methods
5.1. Methodology and processing of research
The thesis uses both the quantitative method and the quantitative research method,


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in which:
Firstly, the thesis used quantitative research method: Use an inductive approach
to make judgments from the results of data collection. That is, collecting and inheriting
data, previous studies on the field of fisheries development and economic growth,
reports related to the fisheries sector (fisheries sector summary, fishery export
summary, fisheries development scheme of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural
Development (MARD),

General Department of Fisheries, Vietnam Seafood

Processing and Export Association (VASEP), Ministry of Industry and Trade; reports
and data on import and export of the General Department of Customs and the General
Statistics Office). And from there, draw comments and assessments on the status of
seafood exports.
Secondly, Quantitative research methods were used including: Statistical
analysis method, description: Use Excel and Stata software to calculate and describe
indicators of the size, structure, growth rate of the fields within the scope of the thematic
research. Calculate the average value, structure and growth rate of GDP factors, seafood
export turnover (FEX), labor working in the economy (LAB), multilateral real exchange
rate (REER), trade openness (OPEN), foreign direct investment (FDI).
Then using macroeconomic data over time, the author inherited pre-trial studies

and used a varnish model that corrected errors to test relevant hypotheses. In it, use:
Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) to assess the short- and longterm relationship between seafood exports along with other control variables to
fisheries GDP.
Vector Error Correction Model (VECM): Assesses the short- and long-term
relationship between seafood exports along with other transmissions to the gdp of the
fisheries sector, considering the impact of shocks.
Both of these models are consistent with time series metrics and take into account
endogenous variables in economic relationships.
6. Methods of data collection and processing
- The thesis references data from studies, reports on fisheries sector summary,
fishery export review, fisheries development scheme of the Ministry of Agriculture and
Rural Development, General Department of Fisheries, VASEP, Ministry of Industry and
Trade. Reports and figures of import and export of the General Department of Customs


5

and the General Statistics Office. And the studies of institutes, schools, organizations
and individuals in the field of fisheries development and economic growth.
- Secondary data on national GDP, fisheries and labor sectors working in the
fisheries sector, foreign direct investment collected from the General Statistics Office;
World Bank data; Data from the Asia Pacific Development Bank.
- General import and export turnover and of seafood collected from the General
Department of Customs.
The exchange rate is collected from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation
and Development.
- The data collected is collected statistical calculation data described on EXCEL
software and handles running the FMOLS, VECM regression model on Stata 14.0
software.
7. The contributions of the topic

- The theoretical basis system on economic growth, exports, the theory of the effect
of import and export expansion, the attractiveness in international trade, the impact of
the exchange rate on import and export; elasticity, J glandular effect and VECM model,
FMOLS.
Identify the relationship between exports and economic growth through the
synthesis of experimental research models.
- Analyzing the status of seafood exports and economic growth of Vietnam in the
period of 2000-2019.
- Analyzing the situation of macroeconomic variables such as foreign direct
investment, exchange rate and trade openness of The South in the period of 2000-2019.
- Analyzing the situation of macroeconomic variables such as foreign direct
investment, exchange rate and trade openness of The South in the period of 2000-2019.
- Apply the FMOLS model and VECM model to assess the impact of seafood
exports on the economic growth of the fisheries sector, as well as on Vietnam's economic
growth in the period of 2000-2019 along with transmission channels such as multilateral
real exchange rates and exalaration variables that are open to trade and foreign direct
investment.
- Proposing directions and solutions for seafood exports along with other variables
to promote Vietnam's economic growth.


6

8. Structure of thesis
In addition to the introduction and conclusion, the thesis is divided into 5 chapters
as follows:
Chapter 1: “Theoretical background on the relationship between exports and
economic growth” introducing the theoretical basis of the relationship between exports
and economic growth;
Chapter 2: “literature review and theorical framework” presenting research

overview and researching the theoretical framework related to the thesis;
Chapter 3: “Vietnam economic growth and seafood exports since 2000”,
analyzing the economic growth and the status of Vietnam's seafood exports since 2000.
Chapter 4: Assessing the role of seafood exports in Vietnam economic growth,
considering the relationship between seafood exports and the economic growth of the
fisheries sector as well as Vietnam's economic growth, along with economic factors in
the channel of transmission of the interaction between seafood exports and the economic
growth of the fishery sector; By experimental model, ...
Chapter 5: Solutions to promote economic growth through seafood exports in
Vietnam, present the prospects of the fisheries sector and propose a number of measures
to promote the positive relationship between seafood exports and economic growth in
Vietnam.


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CHAPTER 1: THEORETICAL BACKGROUND ON THE RELATIONSHIP
BETWEEN EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH
1.1. Economic growth
1.1.1. Concept
Studies on economic growth have acknowledged that growth does not mean
development, but growth is a necessary condition and a prerequisite for development.
The right awareness of economic growth and the effective application of experiences in
economic growth research and policy making are important because economic growth
and development are the first goals of all countries in the world, the main measure of
progress in each stage of the country.
Economic growth, then, is understood as an increase in income achieved over a certain
period of time (usually one year) by a country (or local). This increase is manifested in
scale and speed. Economic growth can be expressed by absolute numbers (growth scale)
or relative numbers (growth rates). The scale of growth reflects an increase or less, while

the growth rate is used with relative comparative significance and reflects a rapid or
slow increase between periods. The income of the economy can manifest as in kind or
value.
1.1.2. Indicators for assessing economic growth
Economic growth, in general form, is the increase of gross national product (GNP)
or gross domestic product (GDP) over a certain period of time (usually calculated for one
year) (Dinh Phi Tiger, 2009).
GDP and GNP indicators through the use of monetary measures can aggregate very
rich and diverse outputs in terms of types and purposes in terms of quality of the economy.
This provides an effective tool for assessing a country's economic growth and
development.
1.1.3. Measure economic growth by popular approach
The first can be measured by determining absolute growth:
ΔY=Yt-Y0
With Y: GDP, GNP
Yt: GDP, GNP at the time of t of the analysis period
Y0: GDP, GNP at the time of the root of the analysis period


8

Second, economic growth can be measured by determining the growth rate. This
is the indicator of economic growth is the rate of GNP increase or GDP of the following
period compared to the previous period, calculated according to the formula:
GNP1 - GNP0 x 100(%)
GNP0
or
GDP1 – GDP0 x 100(%)
GDP0
In particular, GNP0, GDP0 is the gross national product and gross domestic product in

the period before GNP1, GDP1 is the gross national product and gross domestic product
in the following period. Due to the fluctuation of prices (inflation), it is dedicated to
GNP, nominal GDP and GNP, real GDP. GNP and nominal GDP are GNP, GDP at the
current price of the period; And the GNP and gdp are actually GNP, GDP in fixed prices
of a year is chosen as the root. Therefore, in practice there is nominal economic growth
(in GNP, nominal GDP) and real economic growth (calculated according to GNP, real
GDP).
1.1.4. Measure growth by approaching the production function
On the basis of economic growth theories, currently, economists
They all acknowledge that economic growth depends on the main factors of
growth.
capital, labor, resources (land), knowledge and skills of employees and
Technological progress (Dinh Phi Tiger, 2009). The most appropriate form of
growth origin analysis in practice is the Cobb-Douglas production function, which is
expressed as follows:
Y = aLα Kβ
For Y is the gross domestic product
K: Production capital input
L: Labor input
A: Self-defined growth coefficient, also known as tossing axle cutting coefficient
In modern economic analysis, A is also known as composite factor productivity
(TFP). This composite element includes technological factors, economic institutional
factors and a number of other factors besides the model's mention. α is the partial


9

elastication of GDP by labor, assuming constant capital. β is the partial elastication of
GDP by capital (assuming labor is constant).
The equation above can be rewritten as linear as follows:

LnY= LnA + α LnL + β LnK
1.2. Export and export seafood
1.2.1. The concept of exporting and exporting seafood
According to the Commercial Law of Vietnam 2005, Exports means that goods
are brought out of the territory of Vietnam or brought into a special area located in the
territory of Vietnam which is considered a separate customs area according to the
provisions of law
Export of seafood means the domestic seafood products sale to abroad to collect
foreign currency, improve the balance of payments, increase budget revenue, stimulate
technological innovation, contribute to economic restructuring, create jobs and improve
people's living standards.
1.2.2. The role of exports in economic growth
Commodity exports are considered a component of aggregate demand, and exports
play an increasingly positive role in economic growth, reflected in two main aspects,
that is, the contribution of exports to the GDP growth rate and contribution of exports
to Vietnam GDP.
Exporting creates jobs to increase incomes for workers, thereby harmoniously
combining economic growth with the implementation of social justice, contributing to
creating good changes to solve pressing problems in the society.
Export helps to increase accumulation of physical capital, increase foreign
currency revenue to create capital for the country and also for imports to serve the cause
of industrialization and modernization of the country.
At the same time, improve the balance of payments, trade balance, increase foreign
currency reserves for the State budget and thereby increase the ability to import raw
materials, advanced machinery and equipment to gradually replace outdated equipment
still in use, to serve the economic development of the country. In addition, commodity
exports also play an important role in determining the productivity of aggregate factors,
contributing to economic growth.

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1.3. Theories about the impact of exports on economic growth
1.3.1. Classical Theory
Adam Smith's theory of absolute advantage and David Ricardo 's theory of
comparative advantage are typical representative of the classical theory of international
trade. These theories emphasize the role of production specialization, comparative
advantage and productive efficiency in international trade. Adam Smith was the first
economist to give the arguments and basis for solving the problem for the advent of
international exchange and trade. Theory of absolute advantage Initiated by Adam Smith
in his famous work "The Wealth of Nations” was first published in 1776
1.3.2 The theory of gravity
Keynes' economic theory is considered as gravity theory because he
emphasizes the role of consumption and exchange, considering consumption and
exchange are important tasks that economists must deal with.
According to this theory, the cause of the economic crisis, unemployment and
stagnation in the economy is the decrease in consumer demand. Therefore, it is
necessary to raise consumer demand and stimulate demand effectively. Increased
exports can also boost the economic growth rate from demand through transmission
channels. For example, Awokuse (2003) asserts that export expansion can be a stimulus
to output growth directly as a component of aggregate demand, as well as indirectly
through distributing efficiently allocate resources, effectively exploit economies of scale
and stimulate technical innovation due to competition in foreign markets.
1.3.3. Endogenous growth theory
In the later stages of neoclassical theory, the representatives of new growth theory
leaders such as Romer and Lucas had emphasized research and development, transform
knowledge and positive externalities from human capital. In addition, they claim that
the long-run growth rate is determined within the model, so these models are also called
endogenous growth models. The production function of the endogenous growth model
includes three factors: capital, labor is the two material factors and the third factor is

human capital, also known as non-physical factors, including knowledge and skills of
employees, creating labor efficiency or total factor productivity. (Tran Tho Đat, 2010).
1.3.5. Theory of impact of exchange rate on import and export


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The exchange rate and exchange rate policy are important factors in
implementing the outward-looking strategy, promoting import and export. An official
exchange rate adjusted for relevant inflation is called an inflation-adjusted exchange rate
or related or real exchange rate. An increase or decrease in the exchange rate will change
the value of imported and exported goods, affecting the profitability of import-export
businesses.
1.3.6. Elasticity Theory - Linear Effect J
The J-curve is a line that describes the current account situation that worsens in the short
run and improves only in the long run. The line representing this phenomenon resembles
the shape of a J. According to the research results of Krugman (1991), who found the Jcurve effect when analyzing the US dollar devaluation during 1985-1987, the current
account initially deteriorated, then about two the current account balance has improved.
The J-curve is a line that depicts a country's current account falling immediately after
the country devalues its currency, and it takes a while for the current account to begin
to improve. This process, if represented graphically, will give a shape like the letter J.
From theoretical frameworks, it has been shown that exports and economic growth have
a two-way relationship that interacts with each other. This process sets up a Virtuous
Circle in the relationship between exports and economic growth. The Virtuous Circle
Model on the relationship between exports and growth economy shows a positive opencircle relationship between exports and economic growth (Figure 1.3).
In the circle, the faster output growth increases productivity due to the economics of
scale and promoting technological progress (Verdoorn’s Law). It results to drop of
production costs and commodity prices. This leads to an increase in real exchange rate,
and improvement in competitiveness in international trade and therefore promoting
exports. The increase in exports will boost output growth through Keynesian multiplier

effects, increasing consumer demand and stimulating investment. The cycle continues
when the economy achieves higher productivity.


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Economic

Exports growth
Keynesian multiplier

grwoth

effects, increasing
consumer demand
Export demand

Economies of scale
and promoting

function with a

technological

high relative

progress

price
Reducing

(Verdoorn’s Law)

production costs

Increasing the real

and prices

exchange rate,

Productivity

improving

growth

competitiveness
Figure 1: The virtuous circle model of the relationship between exports and
economic growth
Source: Blecker (2009)


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CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORICAL FRAMEWORK
2.1. Empirical Studies in individual countries
Using time series data in separate countries on the relationship between exports
and economic growth, empirical studies have produced conflicting results. Some authors
had rejected the idea that exports promote economic growth, for example, Waithea,

Lordeb and Francisb (2011) studying in Mexico and found that in the long run, exports
have a negative impact on growth rate, which is likely caused by high imports, limited
exports and weak linkages with domestic suppliers.
Most studies supported the view that export leaded to economic growth, such
as Shirazi and Manap (2005), Javed et al. (2012), Ahmad, D., and Ahmad, J. (2018)
study in Pakistan, He and Zhang (2010) study in China, Lordeb and Francisb (2011)
study in Mexico, Mishra (2011) study in India or Shafiullah, Selvanathan and
Naranpanawa (2017) study in Australia, Bakari, S., & Mabrouki, M. (2017) research in
Panama. Some Vietnamese researcher also supported this view like Nguyen Thi Thu
Thuy (2014), Nguyen Quang Hiep (2014, 2016), Dao Thi Bich Thuy (2016).
There are several quantitative methods are used to estimate the relationship between
exports and economic growth, such as OLS, VAR, ARDL, FMOLS, VECM, because
the datasets in these studies are mainly time series data, and essentially all consider
endogenous variables and cointegration relationships.
2.2. Empirical reseaches using multinational data
Similar to studies using single-country data, most studies using multinational data
supporte the view that exports are the engine of economic growth. There are many
studies that consider foreign direct investment while analysis the relationship between
exports and economic growth(Acaravci, A., & Öztürk, İ., İ. (2012) ), Yao, S., & Wei,
K. (2007), or they might consider remittances, exchange rates (Pradhan, KC (2016))…
The FMOLS and VECM methods are also commonly used to examine the short-run and
long-run relationship between exports and economic growth (Jaunky, VC (2011), Ee,
CY (2016), Pradhan, KC (2016), Tsitourasa and Nikas (2016), Wen, X., Li, L., Sun, S.,
He, Q., & Tsai , FS (2019))
2.3. Review of previous studies and reseaorch gaps
Researchers around the world have used several methord such as OLS, 2SLS,
ARDL (Goh, Sam and McNown, 2017, Sothan, 2016), FMOLS (Pradhan, K. C.,2016,
Jaunky, V. C., 2011), ECM as well as VECM in assessing the effects of exports on
economic growth (Lim and Ho, 2013; Shahbaz and Rahman, 2014; Dritsaki, 2014;

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Majid and Elahe, 2016; Tsitourasa and Nikas, 2016); Sothan (2016), Goh, Sam and
McNown (2017). The real multilateral exchange rate is the intermediate variable
between exports and economic growth (Esfahani, 1991; Khan and Saqib, 1993; Nguyen
Quang Hiep, 2014). Many studies on the relationship between exports and economic
growth also consider foreign direct investment (Yao, S., & Wei, K. (2007), Acaravci,
A., & Öztürk, İ. (2012)). Trade openness is also considering while examining the impact
of exports on economic growth (Tan, BW, & Tang, CF (2016 Esfahani, 1991; Khan and
Saqib, 1993; Nguyen Quang Hiep, 2014), (2013)). Some studies also determined the
relationship between export of agricultural products, export of services, export of fish,
export of aquatic products, or export of oil and economic growth. ( Sanjuán-López, AI,
& Dawson, PJ (2010), Golub, S., & Varma, A. (2014), Ahmad, D., and Ahmad, J. (2018.
Jaunky, VC (2011) )…
In general, Vietnamese studies only evaluated the relationship between exports and
economic growth at the national level, there is no research that specifically evaluates
seafood exports to economic growth. Therefore, in this topic, the author wants to
emphasize the role of fisheries in the fisheries economic growth, contributing to
economic growth in Vietnam.
2.4. Research model of the thesis

Figure 2: Research model of the relationship between seafood export and
economic growth
Source: Author's proposal, 2020
The reseach framwork in figure 2.1 is proposed from theoretical overview and
experimental researches, which considering the relationship between seafood export and


15

economic growth in Vietnam, based on the development of a forward spiral model with
some transmission channels like REER, FDI and trade openess.

CHAPTER 3: VIETNAM ECONOMIC GROWTH AND SEAFOOD EXPORTS
SINCE 2000
3.1. Situation of economic growth in Vietnam from 2000 to present
Over the past two decades, Vietnam's GDP growth rate is classified to high groups
compared to other countries in region and over the world(Nguyen Manh Hiep,2018).
In 2019, the growth rate of Vietnam's economy leading other countries in the region,
reaching over 7% is good news in the context of slowing global economic growth. From
the beginning of 2020, the Covid 19 pandemic has comprehensively and deeply affected
all countries in the world, which considered as a year of great difficulties and challenges
for the world economy in general and Vietnam in particular. The world economy is
forecasted to have the most severe recession in history, with the growth of major
economies all falling deeply due to the negative impact of the Covid-19 epidemic.
Although having well controlled on the Covid-19 epidemic, Vietnam’s economy still
has a serious impact.
According to the General Statistics Office, in 2020, Vietnam's economy achieved a gross
domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 2.91%, the lowest level in the 2000-2020 period
(Figure 3.1), but it is the highest growth rate in the world. It seems a success for our
country in the negative impact of the Covid-19 epidemic. Along with China and
Myanmar, Vietnam is one of three countries in Asia with positive growth in 2020. At
the same time, the scale of our economy reached more than 343 billion USD, surpassing
Singapore (337.5 billion USD) and Malaysia (336.3 billion USD), making Vietnam the
4th largest economy in Southeast Asia (after Indonesia 1,088.8 billion USD. (General
Statistics Office, 2021).


16

20

Vietnam
10

Japan

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

-5

2004

Thailand

2003

0

2002

China

2001

5

2000

Tốc dộ tăng GDP (%)

15

Myanmar
Lao PDR

-10

Philippines

-15

Năm

Figure 3: Vietnam's GDP growth rate compared to other countries
in the region from 2000 to 2020
Source: World Development Indicator
3.2. Vietnam seafood production and export revenue from 2000 to present
3.2.1. Vietnam seafood production situation from 2000 to now
According to the General Statistics Office (2021), the total seafood production of
Vietnam in 2020 will reach 8.4 million tons, an increase of nearly 4 times compared to
2000 with an average growth rate of more than 7% per year. In which, aquaculture
production accounted for 54.2%. From 2000 to 2006, fishing production accounted for
the majority of the structure of aquatic products (always over 50%). However, from
2007 to 2020, the aquaculture industry has been developing more and more, so the
proportion of aquaculture has become more and more dominant in the total national
fishery output.
In 2009, the major economies which are the main seafood export markets of
Vietnam heavily affected by the economic crisis. Thereby our seafood exports decrease
over the same period. It leads to low selling prices, affecting production efficiency and

sustainability of seafood exports.
In addition, it Vietnam seafood exposts are alos under the pressure of unfair competition
from other exporters, such as partners down export prices down too low with low quality
(high rate of glazing, use of water-retaining chemicals, etc.). .) not only harms the
efficiency and interests of fish farmers but also affects the reputation of Vietnamese
pangasius, creating an excuse for bad information in the press in other countries, leading
to the risk of losing market.


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3.2.2. Vietnam’s seafood export turnover from 2000 to present
According to the General Department of Customs (2021), the total value of
seafood export turnover in 2020 will reach US$8.4 billion, increasing 5.6 times
compared to 2000, reachs the average growth rate of 9.7%/year. In the period 20002010, Vietnam's seafood exports increased rapidly in both value and quantity. The
Progressive development of science and technology has contributed to the rapid
development of the seafood industry with export turnover continuously increasing from
1.48 billion USD in 2000 to 4.95 billion USD in 2010,reaches a growth rate of
2.8%/year. Seafood products have been exported to 163 countries and territories. EU,
US and Japan are 3 main markets of Vietnam seafood. Since the economic crisis took
place, Vietnam's seafood export began to face many difficulties, so in the period 20112020 the growth rate was only about 4%/year, lower than the period 2000- 2010.
3.2.3. Vietnam's seafood export structure
The structure of seafood exports of Vietnam in recent years has been divided
into 6 main groups: shrimp of all kinds, pangasius, tuna, other fish, molluscs and crabs
and other crustaceans. Among the 6 main groups of aquatic products for export, shrimp
of all kinds, pangasius and fish of all kinds are the main export products of Vietnam.
Shrimp continues to be Vietnam’s leading seafood export product. From 2010-2020,
shrimp exports account for the largest partof Vietnam’s total seafood export volume, the
highest growth rate and the most stable increase. Shrimp export value increased more
than 8 times from 2.107 billion USD to 3.73 billion USD per year, accounting for an

increasing proportion of total seafood production, from 41.1% to 44.5%. Pangasius
exports are 1.292 billion USD to 1.5 billion USD, however, the proportion of total
exports will decrease from 25.2% by 2020 to 17.7% %. The reason for the decrease in
the proportion of total export turnover is that Vietnam's pangasius products face some
difficulties in the European and American markets, such as the tightening of the control
of chlorate residues in products by Europe. Pangasius imported from Vietnam, or the
US imposition of anti-dumping tax on Vietnamese pangasius products in 2019. Exports
of crabs and molluscs have the most modest proportions.
3.2.4. Vietnam seafood export market


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Vietnam exports seafood to more than 160 markets around the world. In which, the top
6 major markets include the US, EU, Japan, China, Korea and ASEAN. In recent years,
exports to the EU have slowed down, to ASEAN and South Korea have been stable,
while exports to China have grown the most, while exports to the US and Japan have
also maintained positive growth. (General Department of Customs, 2021).
3.2.5. Achievements and limitations in Vietnam seafood exports
Vietnam exports the most to the United States (US$41.5 billion), then to the EU,
China, ASEAN, Japan, Korea... Key export items include phones and components;
electronics, computers and components. Export turnover of seafood products increased
sharply, always ranked in the top 10 key export products. Seafood export turnover has
grown strongly year by year with an average growth rate of 15.6%/year. This growth
process has made Vietnam become one of the five largest seafood exporters in the world,
playing a key role in providing global seafood.
However, Vietnam seafood exports have face many challenges from markets, such as
the impact of the catfish inspection program and the EU's yellow card warning for
Vietnamese seafood. There are also difficulties in seed sources, food sources, loans...
make production costs high, lead to less competion in international market.

19

CHAPTER 4: ASSESSMENT OF THE ROLE OF AQUATIC EXPORTS FOR
ECONOMIC GROWTH IN VIETNAM
4.1. Research Equation
From analyzing theorical framework in Chapter 2, the author considers the
equation to study the impact of exports on economic growth using the logarithmic base
natural form as follows:
LnGDP= β0+ β1LnFEX+ β2LnREER+ β3LnOPEN+ β4LnLAB + β5LnFDI +εi
To evaluate the role of seafood exports to the fisheries sector, the author estimates
the following mode:
LnFGDP= β0+ β1LnFEX+ β2LnREER+ β3LnOPEN+ β4LnLAB + β5LnFDI +εi
Regarding the data used in the thesis, the author collects from specific sources as
follows:
- Secondary data on GDP of the whole country, GDP of fishery industry, laborers
working in the economy, foreign direct investment capital are collected from the General
Statistics Office; World Bank data
- Trade openness is collected from Asia Pacific Development Bank.
- Seafood export turnover collected from the General Department of Customs
- The real effective exchange rate

(REER) collected from Organisation for

Economic Cooperation and Development.
4.2. Description of data
- Fishery sector GDP FGDP, FEX seafood export value, Labor working in LAB
economy are taken from General Statistics Office (comparative price 2010)
- Average Real Effective Exchange Rate REER of 10 countries quarterly, Average

Trade Openness OPEN Quarterly, Average Foreign Investment FDI Quarterly for the
period 2000-2019.
4.3. Check for stationarity of data
The FMOLS and VECM models require all research variables to be stationary,
therefore, before entering the model estimate. Therefore, the study will perform the
stationarity test for all variables. The thesis applies the unit root test method Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) to test the stationarity of the variables.
4.4. Analyzing the impact of seafood exports on the economic growth of Vietnam
seafood industry using the VECM model.
The author considers the model:
LnFGDP= β0+ β1LnFEX+ β2LnREER+ β3LnOPEN+ β4LnLAB + β5LnFDI +εi (1)


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Regression results using the VECM model to consider the long-term impact, we
see that the variables L.d.LnFGDP, LnFDI are statistically significant at 1% significance
level. The LnLAB variable is statistically significant at the 5% level of significance. The
remaining variables LnREER, LnOPEN have not found a statistically significant effect
on GDP growth of seafood. In which, the variable LnLAB has the expected sign
opposite to the original hypothesis, the remaining variables all satisfy the expected sign
of the hypothesis. The LnREER and LnOPEN variables are not statistically significant
as well as the LnLAB variable not as expected can be due to the nature of the time series
data which is often endogenous.
From this result, we see that seafood exports have a positive impact on the growth
of the seafood industry in the long run. n fact, in recent years, seafood exports have
contributed most to the seafood industry GDP. In 2019, seafood export turnover reached
US$8.6 billion, seafood exports contributed most to the GDP of the fishery industry in
particular and significantly contributed to the GDP of the agro-forestry-fishery industry
in general. (VASEP, 2020). Due to the impact of the covid 19 epidemic, Vietnam's
seafood export turnover in 2020 slightly decrease.

4.5. Analyzing the impact of seafood exports on Vietnam's economic growth using
the FMOLS model and the VECM model
Considering the model:
LnGDP= β0+ β1LnFEX+ β2LnREER+ β3LnOPEN+ β4LnLAB + β5LnFDI +εi (2)
4.5.1. Research results using the FMOLS method
Long term analysis
The FMOLS Estimation show that there are influence of the variables LnFEX,
REER, LnOPEN on LnGDP in the long run as follows:
- The variable LnFEX has an impact coefficient of 0.361650 with a significance
level of 1%, showing a positive long-term impact of seafood export turnover on GDP
growth of the whole country. This result is similar to the study of Shahzad (2014) on the
long-term positive relationship of exports and economic growth in South Asian
countries, and the study of Vo Hong Duc and Nguyen Cong Thang (2021) with the case
of developing countries in the period from 1990-2019.
- The variable LnREER has an impact coefficient of 2.394762 with a significance
level of 1%, proving that the multilateral exchange rate also has a negative impact in the
long run on GDP growth of the country. When REER increases by 1%, the impact on
GDP growth of the whole country increases by 2,0591% in the long run. In fact, in recent
years, Vietnam Dong has become more valuable in the world basket of goods.


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- The variable LnOPEN has an impact factor of 0.086563. It proves that trade
openness has a positive long-term impact on GDP growth of the whole country.
However, the model has not found statistical significance for this variable.
- Labor variable (LnLAB) has a regression coefficient of - 5.471718 and foreign
direct investment capital (LnFDI) has a regression coefficient of 0.254462, and both are
statistically significant at 1% significance level. . The FDI inflows into Vietnam in
recent years along with technological transformation has given Vietnam many impetus

in economic growth. The FDI sector creates jobs, makes a great contribution to export
products, leads to economic restructuring and contributes to the country's GDP.
4.5.2. Research results using VECM
Short term analysis
In the vector error correction model (VECM), the unbalanced portion in one cycle
is corrected in the next cycle. The error correction process harmonizes the short-run
dynamics with the long-run equilibrium (Kremers et al., 1992). Error correction
coefficient CE1(t-1) = - 0.152463 has statistically significant 1%. It proves that there is
a long-run relationship between explanatory variables and GDP growth in Vietnam. At
the same time, this coefficient indicates the error correction rate of the model, that is,
when the balance is lost due to economic shocks in the previous year, it is immediately
adjusted downward to return to the long-term equilibrium in the consequence year.
The variable LdLnFEX has an impact coefficient of 0.64546 and is statistically
significant at the 1% significance level, that is, in the short run, when seafood exports
increase by 1%, GDP increases by 0.645 % after 1 precious.
Long-term impact analysis
The variable LnFEX has a positive impact on Vietnam's economic growth with
statistical significance of 10%. Variables LnFDI and REER have a positive impact on
Vietnam's economic growth with statistical significance of 1%; variable LnLAB and
variable LnOPEN have a negative impact on GDP growth with statistical significance
of 5%. The experimental results are opposite to those of Sakyi et al (2012), Shahbaz et
al (2013a), Shahbaz et al (2013b), Vo Hong Duc and Nguyen Cong Thang (2021).


22

CHƯƠNG 5: SOLUTIONS TO PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH
THROUGH SEAFOOD EXPORTS IN VIETNAM
This research results support the view that exports lead the economic growth, and
seafood exports also make an important contribution to Vietnam economic

development.
In the general context of the Covid 19 pandemic, Vietnam's seafood exports in the
last months of 2021 are forecasted to increase again due to the recovery in EU’s demand
for seafood, along with special incentives for seafood tariffs from the EVFTA(VASEP,
2021. In the long term, seafood export is assessed as a spearhead economic sector, which
receives special attention from the Party and State. Vietnam's seafood brand is not only
affirmed in the country but also well received by many countries around the world.
Therefore, it is really necessary to orient the development strategy for the industry in
each period to face with the fluctuations of the world market.
5.1. Forecast of Vietnam's seafood export prospects
According to the draft approving the strategy for developing Vietnam's fisheries
to 2030, with a vision to 2045, some key indicators are as follows:
Vision to 2030:
a) The growth rate of aquaculture production value will reach 3.5-4.0%/year in the
period of 2021-2030.
b) The total production of aquatic products produced in the country reaches 9.8
million tons; in which aquaculture production is 7.0 million tons, fishing output is 2.8
million tons.
c) The value of seafood export turnover is 18-20 billion USD.
d) 100% of production and business establishments meet environmental standards.
e) Create jobs for 3.5 million workers.
f) The average income per fishery worker is equivalent to the average income of
the whole country.
Vision to 2045:
Seafood industry is a modern, green and sustainable economic and commercial
sector with advanced management and science and technology levels; Vietnam will
become a high-quality seafood processing center in ASEAN and Asia, and ranked to
one of three leading seafood producing and exporting countries in the world. Seafood
also holds an important position in the structure of agricultural and marine economic